Apartment Trends to Watch

Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors www.duprescott.com

7 STORIES TO TAKE AWAY TODAY:

• The intertwined couple

• The 3 rules of development

• The iHome

• Justin time

• Leave it to Beaver

• The “Geezer Effect”

• 3 rules of forecasting

The

Intertwined couple

Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com

Capitalization rate: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

Feb-

00

Feb-

01

Feb-

02

Feb-

03

Feb-

04

Feb-

05

Feb-

06

Feb-

07

Feb-

08

Feb-

09

Feb-

10

Feb-

11

Feb-

12

Feb-

13


Sales volume: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

$450,000,000

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

600564



Price per unit: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000F

eb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13


Interest rates & capitalization rates

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

3

rules

of development


New units opened each year(Tri-county)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,0001987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The

iHome

Apartment unit size trend(Net rentable square feet; 20+ unit properties)

B


400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000 1

89

0

18

95

19

00

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Justin

Time

Annual increase in 20-34 year olds’(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties)

600,000

625,000

650,000

675,000

700,000

725,000

750,000

775,000

800,000

825,000

850,000

875,000

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16


Leave

It to

Beaver

The

“Geezer Effect”

The Geezer Effect

People turning 65 each year(Puget Sound region)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020


3

Rules of

Forecasting


New versus “old” - rents(1 BR; In-city Seattle; 20+ units)

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

OlderNewer

+46%


+36%


Mortgage payment as % of rent(King County; 20+ units)

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

225%

250%

275%

300%1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Mortgage/RentLong term average



Vacancy forecast: Tri-county(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties; 20+ units)

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

Dec 12 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

GrossMarket



Rent forecast: Tri-county(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties; 20+ units)

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Dec 12 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

7 STORIES TO TAKE AWAY TODAY:

• The intertwined couple

• The 3 rules of development

• The iHome

• Justin time

• Leave it to Beaver

• The “Geezer Effect”

• 3 rules of forecasting

Apartment Trends to Watch

Real Estate

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