“Restructuring Finance To Promote Productive Employment” · “Restructuring Finance To Promote...
Transcript of “Restructuring Finance To Promote Productive Employment” · “Restructuring Finance To Promote...
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“Restructuring Finance To
Promote Productive Employment”
Gerald Epstein Professor of Economics and Co-Director PERI
Presentation at: Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM) on "The Jobs Crisis:
Causes, Cures, Constraints", Berlin, 24-26 October 2013
Thanks to Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) for Financial Support
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Many thanks to:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) who funded this research:
And my co-authors and research assistants: James Crotty, Arjun Jayadev, Iren Levina, Joao Paulo de Souza, Juan Montecino, Simon Sturn and Leila Davis. All of them have made important contributions to this research.
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Questions to be Addressed:
• How does finance affect the “real economy” in general, and employment in particular?
• How should finance be restructured to promote socially productive and sustainable employment in a globally warming world?
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One simple Answer to the first question:
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Andrew Haldane of Bank Of England Estimates:
Cost of Current Crisis: $60 – 200 TRILLION
Andrew Haldane “ The 100 Billion Dollar Question” March, 2010
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/spee
ches/2010/speech433.pdf
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Financialized Capitalism:
Locked in A Devastating Dynamic of De-regulation, Financial Innovation,
Explosion, and Bail-out
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This cycle of de-regulation, boom, bust and bail-out has also lead to an enormous growth in the financial sector in the U.S., U.K., and, indeed in many parts of the world.
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US: TOTAL FINANCIAL ASSETS AS % OF GDP
1945 2007 1981
1945 1981 2007
1000%
400%
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Financial profit as a share of total domestic profit (USA, 1934-2010)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Source: calculated from NIPA, Table 6.16, Profits are with IVA and CCAdj
%Financial Sector Profits as Share of Total Profits, USA
1934 2009
40%
1960
15% 20%
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Pre-tax profits of financial corporations as a share of total domestic pre-tax profits: UK, 1987-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: ONS, UK Economic Accounts, Income and Capital Accounts. Pre-tax profits are calculated as a sum of gross disposable income and taxes on income. Domestic sectors include fin corporations, public corporations, non-fin private
corporations.
%Financial Sector Profit Share in UK, 1987 - 2010
30%
10%
2000 2009 1987
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Some European Banks are very large relative to size of their Economies (BANK ASSETS TO GDP RATIO)
Credit Suisse
JP Morgan
2%
Deutsche Bank
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An Additional clear cost: Massive growth in financial incomes contribute to inequality
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
900019
5201
1953
0319
5501
1956
0319
5801
1959
0319
6101
1962
0319
6401
1965
0319
6701
1968
0319
7001
1971
0319
7301
1974
0319
7601
1977
0319
7901
1980
0319
8201
1983
0319
8501
1986
0319
8801
1989
0319
9101
1992
0319
9401
1995
0319
9701
1998
0320
0001
2001
0320
0301
2004
0320
0601
2007
0320
0901
2010
03
Rentier Income Index Labor Income Index
Rentier
Labor
1980
2007
The United States 1952 - 2010
Source: Jayadev and Epstein
Rentier Income Vs. Labor Income
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After 1980, positive relation between rentier share and income of top 1% in US
19521953195419551956195719581959196019611962196319641965196619671968
1969197019711972
1973197419751976
197719781979
19801981 19821983198419851986 1987 1988198919901991 199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 2004
2005200620072008
20092010
46
810
logr
inde
x2
.5 1 1.5 2log01
Rentier Share Index
Share of Income to Top 1%
1952
1980
2007
Source: Jayadev and Epstein
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Regulators in US and Europe now “try” to regulate the financial sector ostensibly to reduce the likelihood of a crash and another tax payer bail-out
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Bankers and Politicians Fight Back
• Rules will harm banks and reduce their competitiveness
• Banks will move abroad • Intermediation will become more expensive • Banker Brain Drain • Stifle Financial Innovation • Jamie Diamon of JP Morgan: “We can manage
our own risk just fine.”
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Houston Law Firm Celebrates 1st Anniversary in its Brussels Office
Source: New York Times, October 18, 2013
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But if Financial Sector Is Highly Bloated
Good bye and Good Riddance?
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Has this growth in the financial sector contributed positively to the economy commensurate with its size?
A simple picture gives an initial hint
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Source: Philippon
In US: No Obvious relation between share of finance and Economic Growth, 1860 - 2010
10 Year Change in the Finance share
Ten Year Growth of GDP Per Capita
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Increasing Evidence of U – shaped relationship between size of financial sector and economic growth
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Some References to this literature:
• Thomas Phillipon “Has the Financial Sector
Become Less Efficient”? http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7376
• Arcand, J-L, E Berkes, U Panizza (2011), "Too much Finance?", VoxEU.org, 7 April. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6328
• Haldane, AG and V Madouros (2011), "What is
the Contribution of the Financial Sector, VoxEU.org, 22 November. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7314
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New Paper to be presented here by Simon Sturn casting further doubt on finance growth relationship
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This literature does not tell us what type of financial activities contribute to socially useful real sector outcomes like:
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We need to learn more about to what extent finance promotes:
• job creation, • risk reduction • retirement protection • financing of socially useful investment
including those devoted to addressing climate change
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In literature what are the Roles of the Financial Sector?
• Channel finance to productive investment
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Channel finance to productive investment
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Channel finance to productive investment
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
• Help households and businesses reduce risk (risk sharing)
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Channel finance to productive investment
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
• Help households and businesses reduce risk (risk sharing)
• Help provide stable and elastic LIQUIDITY
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Channel finance to productive investment
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
• Help households and businesses reduce risk (risk sharing)
• Help provide stable and elastic LIQUIDITY
• Financial innovation
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There are also important Private roles of finance: 1) Make profit for shareholders 2) Make incomes and bonuses for management and “rain-makers”.
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A Reasonable Claim: Finance has done much better at furthering private roles than social roles (greater private efficiency than social efficiency) (to put it mildly)
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Estimates of the Contribution of the Financial Sector
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Channel Finance to Productive Investment?
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High share of lending in US and UK go to households and property development, and to support trading in financial assets. True in other countries as well.
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Epstein/Crotty/Levina
• Finance Gap measured as Investment minus saving so looks at how much finance is needed to finance investment.
• Source: Epstein and Crotty (with Levina) “How Big is Too Big? On the Social Efficiency of the Financial Sector in the United States”
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Financing Gap Relative To capital expenditures: Non-financial Corporations, US
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Financing gap as a share of capital expenditures, in percent (non-financial corporations, UK, 1987-2010)
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: ONS, Blue Book, Calculatins by author
%
Financing gap, net saving Financing gap, gross saving
Financing Gap, UK Non-Financial Corporations, 1987 - 2010
Source: Epstein, Crotty and Levina, 2012
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Financialization of Non-Financial Corporations in Financialized Europe?
Non-Financial Corporations in UK, Netherlands,
Austria become net lenders, rather than net borrowers (see next slide based on work with Joao Paulo de Souza).
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Europe: Change in Average Net Lending – Non-Financial Corporations
Change Between 1995-1999 and 2000-2007
Country Net Lending (1)=(2)-(3)
Gross Saving (plus Net Capital Transfers) (2)
Capital Expenditures (3)
France -1.28% 0.10% 1.38%
Italy -1.01% 0.17% 1.18%
Portugal -3.50% -2.48% 1.02%
United Kingdom
1.97% -0.53% -1.44%
Netherlands 2.84% 1.15% -1.69%
Austria 1.97% 2.36% 0.40%
Germany -0.11% -0.035% 0.074%
Change Between 2000-2003 and 2004-2007
Spain -3.64% -2.18% 1.36%
Change in Average Net Lending (% of GDP, annual averages)
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Key Results from Epstein, Crotty, and Levina:
Income extraction by the financial sector relative to its filling the financing gaps has dramatically increased.
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Gross value added of the financial corporate business as a share of financing gap
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: calculations based on the Flow of Funds and NIPA, Table 1.14
mul
tiple
s of
fina
ncin
g ga
p
Income of the Financial Sector Relative to The Financing Gap in The US, 1946 - 2010
.4
.8
Source: Epstein, Crotty and Levina
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Income Extraction by the Financial Sector in The US Relative to Financing Gap (Including the Federal Government Financing Gap)
Financial Sector might be as much as two times too big
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Indeed, there is an increasing disconnect between activity in financial sector and the financing of productive investment
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Notional value of derivatives & primary financial assets relative to GDP: A Growing Disconnect Relation of Derivatives Relative to Primary
Securities
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jun/
98
Jan/
99
Aug/
99
Mar
/00
Oct
/00
May
/01
Dec/
01
Jul/0
2
Feb/
03
Sep/
03
Apr/
04
Nov/
04
Jun/
05
Jan/
06
Aug/
06
Mar
/07
Oct
/07
May
/08
Dec/
08
Jul/0
9
Feb/
10
Total
Primary Securities/Assets
Derivatives
World GDP
Blundell-Wignall & Atkinson 2011 “Global SIFIs, Derivatives and Financial Stability”, Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Paul Atkinson, OECD Journal - Financial Market Trends, Volume 2011 issue 1, OECD, January 2011 http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/62/10/48299884.pdf
Source: Epstein and Habbard, 2012, from OECD
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Raises Question:
• So what has finance been doing?
• For one thing: lending to itself to finance proprietary trading.
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MFI net lending to other financial corporations as a share of total MFI net lending (UK, 1Q1963 - 1Q2012)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Mar
-63
Mar
-65
Mar
-67
Mar
-69
Mar
-71
Mar
-73
Mar
-75
Mar
-77
Mar
-79
Mar
-81
Mar
-83
Mar
-85
Mar
-87
Mar
-89
Mar
-91
Mar
-93
Mar
-95
Mar
-97
Mar
-99
Mar
-01
Mar
-03
Mar
-05
Mar
-07
Mar
-09
Mar
-11
Source: calculations based on data from Bank of England, Bankstats, Table A4.1. Data are not seasonally adjusted and include only sterling lending. Lending in foreign currencies is excluded
perc
ent
Net Lending of the Financial Sector to Itself, UK, 1963 – 2012 (from 5% to 40% of lending)
Source: Epstein and Levina, 2011
5%
40%
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1960s 4.64
1970s 5.84
1980s 9.85
1990s 17.13
2000s 26.48
2010s 33.38
Decadal Average of UK financial sector lending to itself as share of total lending, 1960 - 2012
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US: Intra-Financial Lending: Narrow vs. extended measures in flows (percent of total lending)
Source: Epstein and Montecino calculations based on the Flow of Funds.
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Intra-Financial Lending in relation to GDP (U.S.)
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Intra – Financial Lending with “Shadow Banking” Instruments (US) (Share of Financial Sector Assets) (stock measures)
Source: Montecino and Epstein, 2013
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Two Measures of Intra-Financial Lending In OECD Countries
Bottom line: Went up substantially in most
European Countries after 2000 ( with exceptions of Belgium and Hungary)
(Source: Montecino and Epstein, 2013)
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What is the impact of intra-financial lending on credit growth and investment?
Juan Montecino and I studied a VAR model of
intra-financial lending, credit growth and investment in the US, 1950 – 2011.
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Answer: Intra-Financial lending appears to be associated with lower investment in the US
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Cumulative Impulse Response: effect of intra-financial assets on investment (US)
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Not Sure of the Channels. Does Intra Financial Lending Reduce Credit Flows to Investment?
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Cumulative Impulse Response: effect of credit on investment (US)
95% confidence interval
95% confidence interval
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Cumulative Impulse Response: effect of intra-financial assets on credit (US)
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What is the impact of intra- financial lending on Financial Crises?
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Two “Financial Stress” Indices (US)
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Impact of Intra-Financial Lending on Financial Stress Index (US): positive relation
Source: Montecino and Epstein, 2013
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Impact of Intra-Financial Share on Financial Stress Index
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What About European Banks?
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European Banks: Up to Their Eyeballs in US Sub-Prime Crisis
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Massive increase by European Banks of lending To US In Lead up to Crisis
Source: Shin
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MASSIVE INCREASE IN LEVERAGE
SELECTED EUROPEAN BANK BALANCE SHEETS
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BNP Paribus, 1997 - 2009
Equity: Thin Black line
Shadow Banking System
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BNP and Barclays 1997 – 2009, Thin Equity
Equity
non-deposit liabilities
Risk based capital Ratio (looks pretty good!)
Barclays
Paribus
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Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale, 1997 - 2009
Source: Noeth and Sengupta, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Nov./Dec. 2012
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Trading
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Trading: US Stock Market Trading Relative To Corporate Investment
Source: Pollin, 2011
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Excess Reserves Are Massively Pilling Up on Balance Sheets of US Corporations
• Are these simply idle balances (Pushing on a
string?)
• Or are they the foundation for massive speculation and trading by US (and presumably other) financial institutions?
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Excess Reserves Held By US Banks
Source: Pollin, et. al. 2011
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The accumulation of Bank excess Reserves Since the Crisis
Deposits
Loans
Excess Reserves
Source: Zerohedge
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Excess Reserves
Pushing on a string? Or Collateral for profitable speculation and
trading?
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Reserves being posted as collateral:
• In Repo market
• funds are borrowed and then used to buy
equities and other assets (in a sort of off-balance sheet set of activities)
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Channel finance to productive investment
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
• Help households and businesses reduce risk (risk sharing)
• Help provide stable and elastic LIQUIDITY
• Financial Innovation
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Provide mechanisms for households to transfer income over time
• Help households and businesses reduce risk (risk sharing)???
Simple Answer: Haldane Estimates of Cost of Crisis: $60 – 200 Trillion; Bailouts: Privatize Benefits Socialize Costs
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Help provide stable and elastic
LIQUIDITY
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Help provide stable and elastic
LIQUIDITY
Liquidity Defense: Last refuge of scoundrels: Bankers claim: “Financial regulation will reduce liquidity and raise transactions costs and reduce price discovery”
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Roles of the Financial Sector
• Help provide stable and elastic
LIQUIDITY
But: Financial Sector has generated liquidity cycles: excess liquidity driving asset bubbles, and private liquidity drying up in Crisis.
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Liquidity Defense
Price Discovery? In Keynesian world of fundamental uncertainty, there is NO price discovery; only price creation. And, unlike what Fama assumed, that prices are pre-determined, the bears and bulls sometimes drive asset prices in massively large directions up and down.
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Financial Innovation
Surveys of financial innovation cannot find any link between “financial innovation” and economic growth
(White and Fame 2004 JEL survey article)
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Study Total Number of Security
Innovations (1)
Number motivated at
least partly be tax or regulatory
reasons (2)
Percentage of total
innovations motivated by tax or
regulatory reasons
(2)/(1) x 100 (%)
Finnerty, 1988 103 45 44
Finnerty, 1992 65 21 34
Finnerty and Emery, 2002 80 25 31
Fin. Innovation: Tax and Regulatory Arbitrage (Epstein and Crotty)
Source: Epstein and Crotty
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Liquidity Safe Assets, Business Model of Banking
--business of banking (blundell, wignall) -- european banks and the global financial crisis
(shin, etc.) dollar based system, fisures, etc.
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Led to a Change in The Banking/Finance Business Model: Some have said that banks became hedge funds with government guarantees
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Source: Blundell/Wignall
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Modern capital market banking
• Looks like a highly leveraged (i.e., in debt) hedge fund
• Financed with very short term borrowing (money markets, repos)
• Invested in obscure and illiquid investments
• complicated by complex derivatives bets
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When US Threatened a Default:
• Great Fears of a melt-down Lehman Style
because the $ and US Treasury Securities are foundation of massive super-structure of bets and counter-bets in global financial markets.
• US Treasuries are “safe assets”
• Some claim there is a shortage of such “safe assets”
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Shortage of “Safe Assets”
Source: IMF
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Demand for “Safe Assets”
-Demand is NOT for investment in socially
productive and Useful Activities -Demand fueled by the global financial “casino”
and should not be accommodated by more government guarantees of financial assets and financial institutions
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What is to be Done? Restructuring Finance to Better Serve Society and generate socially useful and adequate employment
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Reduce Size of Financial Sector
Current Policy: • Capital Requirements
• leverage requirements
Useful: but problems with evasion; capital can be
pro-cyclical
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Reduce the Size of Financial Sector
• Financial Transactions Tax • Bank Profit Tax • Tax Surcharge or Clawbacks
on Financial Salaries and Bonuses
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But reducing size of financial sector will reduce employment in that sector; this is especially a problem for some financial centers: London, New York, others.
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Make Sure Financial Innovation is Safe and Effective
• A Financial Products Safety Commission
(Financial Precautionary Principle) Source: Epstein and Crotty, Controlling
Dangerous Financial Products through a Financial Precautionary Principle
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Limit destructive risk taking by large financial firms Splitting large financial conglomerates
through mandatory separation of commercial and investment banking activities
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Limit destructive risk taking by large financial firms
Phase out crisis-driven government guarantees and limit bailouts
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Limit destructive risk taking by large financial firms
Reform rating agencies, reducing reliance and shifting their business model back to an investor-pay model
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Re-orientate financial institutions and markets and reverse the balance of power between democratically governments and the financial markets FINANCE WITHOUT FINANCIERS
Diversifying the financial sector through a larger array of public and cooperative financial institutions
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Reducing Size and profitability of financial sector
Likely to be useful for overall economy.
What impact will it have on the
jobs problem? Will it make the transition to green
employment easier?
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Reducing speculation, promotes green transition?
Will reduce the profitability of financial speculation and trading: and therefore reduce the required return on financing other activities, such as green technology which will help make the environmental transition and trade with green jobs. (Keynes, Chapter 17; Orghanzi; Stockhammer).
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But cannot rely on Market alone
There are a number of policy tools that can by
used by governments and central banks to promote and help allocate credit to green technology and renewable energy. Some of these are already being done and more should be done.
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Tools to use for directing credit:
1. Asset Backed Reserve Requirements (Palley,
Pollin) 2. Loan Guarantees 3. Directed, Subsidized Credit 4. Sustainable Development Banks 5. Assisted by sustainable development oriented
central banks
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Making Transition will generate jobs:
Much work has been done by my colleagues Bob Pollin, Heidi Garrett-Peltier and James Heintz at PERI.
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Jobs per $1 Billion
Source: Political Economy Research Institute and IMPLAN
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Employment Multiplier Effects Jobs per $1 billion direct spending
Military: 11,600 Oil/Gas: 5,180 Automobile Manufacturing: 8,960 Bus Manufacturing: 9,240 Clean Energy: 17,100 -wind: 13,300 -solar: 13,720 -smart grid: 12,460 -building weatherization: 17,360
Source: Pollin and Garrett-Peltier, 2011
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Green Job creation vs. Fossil Fuels
Source: Pollin, Heintz, Garrett-Peltier, 2009
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Job Creation in Various Sectors (US)
Source: Pollin and Garrett-Peltier, 2011
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Wage Distribution of Jobs: distributed across categories
Source: Pollin and Garrett-Peltier, 2011
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What NOT to DO: Cap and Trade Solution: a boon for financial speculation
Trade generates a casino for financial
speculation. Already Commodity markets are a massive arena
for speculation.
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Better Solution to cut out Speculative Finance
1. Carbon Tax and/or 2. Cap and Dividend (James Boyce, colleague at PERI)
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Options to Control Climate Change
Source: Boyce and Riddle, 2007
also called “cap and trade”
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In the end, We need to:
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Help re-orient economics to a reality based economics based on evidence based understanding of financial markets and the macroeconomy.
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Reverse the balance of power between democratically elected governments and the financial markets
Protecting financial reforms processes from regulatory capture by bankers, including through stronger regulation of political parties’ financing
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Bankers are Now Blocking Reform on Both Sides of Atlantic
We need to continue trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Financial Reform to fight back.
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And to fight for addressing climate change by using tools to quicken the pace of transition and in the process generate many more sustainable jobs.
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THANK YOU