Institute for Strategic Studies; Research and Analysis (ISSRA)National Defense University

Islamabad

“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”

Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon

(08th May, 2013)

“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”

Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon

(08th May, 2013)

Mr. Ian Dudgeon at the NDU

Courtesy call on the President NDU

A view of the Roundtable

“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”

Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon

(08th May, 2013)

Introduction

Presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon

Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar

Interactive discussion

Wrap-up remarks

Annexes

­ Work Plan­ CVs of the Speaker and Discussant­ List of Participants

The compilation is based on minutes recorded by RA Ms Beenish Sultan, RA Mr. Muhammad Shabbir, RA Ms. Mehroona and RA Ms. Asma Sana under sponsorship of

Global Studies-ISSRA.

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“Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders”

Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon

08th May, 2013: 1220-1400 hrs

INTRODUCTION

The roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon, former President of Australian Institute of

International Affairs (AIIA), aimed at discussing the key interests of major stakeholders

in the context of post 2014 Afghanistan scenario. It was a two-hour long exercise

participated by policy-relevant experts and scholars from within the NDU and various

think-tanks in Islamabad. President NDU Lieutenant General Nasser Khan Janjua was

in Chair.

To recall, Mr. Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant who specializes on

national security issues. He served previously in the domains of foreign affairs, trade,

and defence; and also contributed to the development of concepts related to information

warfare and information operations. He has held the distinguished portfolio of President,

Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA). Currently, he is engaged in carrying a

study on the evolving Afghan scenario for which he is carrying extensive tour of

countries in the region.

At the outset of the roundtable, the Chair welcomed the guest speaker while

taking note of his policy-relevant scholastic pursuits. He expressed the hope that the

guest’s presentation, together with discussion amongst a galaxy of scholars and

intellectuals, would enable him to better appreciate the dynamics of the evolving

scenario.

The roundtable comprised of a presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon (about 20 mins),

followed by a presentation by distinguished visiting faculty: AM (R) Masood Akhtar

(about 20 mins). Another one hour or so was dedicated to an interactive discussion

amongst the participants. Annexes to this compilation carry the roundtable Workplan

(A), Profiles (B), and List of Participants (C).

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SALIENTS OF MR. IAN DUDGEON’S PRESENTATION

Mr. Ian Dudgeon first introduced his current endeavor to better understand the

dynamics of the evolving Afghanistan scenario and the perceived interests of major

stakeholders in this context. He is engaged in travels to Kabul and Delhi, besides

Pakistan in order to meet policy-relevant elite and scholars and to prepare a

comprehensive paper on the theme which should be of interest to policy-relevant circles

across the regions. The salients of the guest speaker’s presentation are itemized in the

paras below:-

The Post-2014 Afghanistan situation has the potential of unfolding multiple

scenarios. In this context, efforts of reconciliation amongst various stakeholders have

brought forward less optimistic results. At this critical juncture, Afghanistan is looking

ahead to the upcoming general elections and there is a great deal of concern about the

country’s next President and the composition of the Afghan National Assembly. Further,

the situation is marked by complexity as the Taliban remain inflexible in their posture

and vision with regard to negotiations pertaining to the future of Afghanistan. Clearly, as

one may notice, the US is not yet at a point of achieving a breakthrough and still many

factors from the grass root level are unknown to us.

Furthermore, the ability of Afghan National Army to handle post-2014 scenario is

doubtful which would have bearings on Taliban’s modus operandi in the near future.

Another factor is Taliban’s probable refusal to join the new set up and at the same time,

the possibility that Pashtuns would not be sufficiently represented in the new Assembly.

However, one deciding factor would be the performance of the present government as

to whether they were able to make any inroads into the promotion of education, health,

infrastructure and good governance in the country.

All indicators show that the current government failed to deliver and this may be

the primary reason behind the fact that Taliban’s influence cannot be minimized. The

Taliban have also very cleverly used propaganda by branding the invaders. In the wake

of this, there is a general consensus that change is needed in the socio-economic and

security landscape of the country but the question is , will the new President be able to

bring the desired change in order to make Afghanistan a land of opportunity? The new

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government will only be able to pursue a national agenda if it manages to rise above

short term parochial interests.

At this stage, Afghanistan is divided in two areas: The Taliban area, which is

alleged to carry linkages with Pakistan despite the clear distinction between the Afghan

Taliban and Pakistani Taliban, and the non-Taliban area. In the neighborhood, what

concerns the CARs and Russia the most is the Islamic extremism manifested through

the increasing influence of these Taliban in terms of conditioning the minds of Afghan

people and exporting extremism to the other countries. Australia is a small player in this

scenario, but the idea of Islamic extremism being exported across the globe is

worrisome for it aswell. Terrorist incidents like the one in Bali, Indonesia about ten years

ago was enough to serve as a wakeup call for the Australians. However, it must be

understood that Australia is very comfortable with the religion of Islam and holds nothing

against it, being itself home to a large number of Muslim population.

India, on the other hand offers another complexity to the end game in

Afghanistan. The US had earlier desired India to take the lead but the community at

large remained skeptical. This includes Pakistan which is set to play an absolutely

critical role in the future stability in Afghanistan. Its role will also be effective because of

the shared ethnicities across the Durand line. However, it considers the Afghan Taliban

and India as major challenges to its national security. The grievances on both sides

cannot be denied but a breakthrough can be achieved if driven by mutual interests, both

with Afghanistan and India. Pakistan’s business community has been quite forthcoming

on this idea and believes that a way for rapprochement must be found, invariably

through increased trade and all issues should be solved politically. Concurrently,

Pakistan must realize that, though India stands to benefit any way, but these steps

would also extend Pakistan’s influence globally and at the same time, Afghanistan will

benefit as well.

On a similar note, one can foresee a prospective role of the UN as a neutral

body, for developing infrastructure, health, education and gender equality. The US,

NATO and ISAF have already earmarked $100-200 million for development purposes in

Afghanistan and chances are , they would be needing more money in addition to that

amount. Main reason being that the US may be leaving Afghanistan but is not going to

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withdraw completely; therefore it is looking for an exit strategy to save face. It is likely to

leave back Special Forces in Afghanistan for combat operations and a sizeable number

of non-operational forces for the same purposes.

Global implications of this bigger bubble of post-2014 scenario need to be seen

in totality. At the end of the day, it is hoped that all the countries will be brought on

board, for which ‘Regional Integration’ seems to be a very winning concept. An increase

in trade will benefit all and serve everyone’s interests, including those of Pakistan and

Afghanistan. Along with that, the world community will be interested in knowing clearly

spelt out national interests which Pakistan seeks to pursue in such a situation.

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PRESENTATION BY AIR MARSHAL (R) MASOOD AKHTAR

At the outset of the presentation, Air Marshal Masood Akhtar (Retd) highlighted

the importance of the topic particularly in the backdrop of Obama’s second term. The

speaker opined that 2014 will not be an easy year as Obama administration is going to

be more decisive. The US would wish to eliminate Al-Qaeda and Taliban in order to

diminish the possibility of any future attack on the West therefore; it would leave back a

sufficiently strong force in view of the counter insurgency operations inside Afghanistan.

In this regard any terrorist network like Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Punjabi

Taliban and TTP, do not pose any clear mission or objectives. Thus Pakistan has been

put into a very difficult situation. On one hand where it continues to support ISAF efforts

while on the other hand, these operations carry the potential of making things difficult for

Pakistan. Like the ISAF in Afghanistan, Pakistan too needs to win this war. Thus, it is

looking for a balanced Counter Terrorism Strategy. It is obvious that if Pakistan fails,

others may also not succeed.

Furthermore, India and Pakistan are two important regional players in the overall

scenario. For stability and long-term interests the two states have to proceed towards

negotiations. Pakistan is a victim of terrorism not only from within but also from the

Indian and the west; illustrations found in incidents like the five terrorists captured in

Sargodha (Pakistan) who received training in the United States. The peace talks and

trade relations between Pakistan and India must not be held hostage to various

incidents. In addition, India’s presence in Afghanistan and its role in Asia pivot strategy

is neither in interest of Pakistan nor Australia.

Consequently, the success of the ISAF’s roadmap is therefore linked with

number of factors including the result of the ongoing negotiations, transparency in

election process in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s ambition, fears/expectations, the role of

international community especially in the context of their sustainable economic support

and the interests of other regional stakeholders.

There are three major reasons due to which Pakistan owns this war: first, it

threatens ‘Pakistani-Pakistan’ identity, second, it threatens its ‘National Purpose’ that is

‘Democracy, Freedom, Equality, Tolerance and Social Justice’ (DFETS) and finally, it

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threatens its six suggested ‘Vital National Interests’ (VNIs) i.e. national integration and

harmony, defence and security, economic well-being, favorable regional and global

order, peoples’ security vis-a-vis state-security and promotion/affirmation of its national

values. On the other hand, VNIs of all Western nations particularly US in Afghanistan

are related to expansion of the defence and security parameters, benefit from the

potential wealth of Afghanistan, containing China and Iran and promotion of national

values.

The ‘Australian National Security Policy 2013’ (Strong and Secure Australia)’ has

prioritized its vital national interests as collective economic/ political security, human

security of individuals, supply for food and energy security and the natural system

security. The objectives are to ensure safe and resilient population; protect and

strengthen state sovereignty in terms of decision-making and authority over territory and

space; secure assets, infrastructure, institutions, and wealth; promote a favorable

international environment; to influence/ shape the regional and global environment and

to be conducive in advancing Australian interests and values.

In Afghanistan, there is a need of integration of all ethnic factions through

promotion of Islamic value system. Al-Qaeda has found a bigger ground in ‘Arab Spring’

thus; the real threat in Afghanistan is from sole terrorists who are ideologically motivated

individuals. The process of globalization, transfer of capital and information technology

has facilitated such individuals.

Moreover, the role of international community in future of Afghanistan should be

inclusive not exclusive of the Afghan government. The solution should not be imposed

from outside rather it should emerge from within Afghan polity. The future scenario

should look into the interests of all nations particularly the interest of Pakistan which not

only shares the common border but also common heritage with Afghanistan

If US leaves Afghanistan and ‘larger than life’ influence of India is established in

the country, Pakistan will get destabilized ultimately leading to a destabilization of the

whole region. The interests of regional security emphasize that international community

should trust Pakistan as General Kayani rightly stated, “Pakistan should be trusted and

enabled”.

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INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION

During the interactive discussion, the participants were keen in deliberating on

issues regarding the presence of special forces in Afghanistan and impact on the

process of state-building, Indian involvement in Afghanistan and fallout on Pakistan,

probable scenario’s post-2014 and current security situation of Afghanistan.

It was opined that firstly, ‘securing one’s national interest is a universal right’.

Leaving back a surge of 10,000 to 15,000 in Afghanistan serves the US interest of

operationalizing peace in Afghanistan. In this regard, state-building and bringing the

house in order from scratch is a goal which the US foresees post-2014. The forces left

behind are meant to train the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police which is

a step towards building up institutions of Afghanistan. The Forces on Ground

Agreement 2012 also confirms this goal. Hence, the presence of forces confirms the

goal of first preparing the Afghan forces against any faction creating instability and

second, at the larger canvas strengthening the Afghan institutions.

Second, the Indian economic interests in Afghanistan are more pronounced than

the political ones. They are inclined towards promoting economic relations with

Afghanistan and keeps up with the traditional rivalry with Pakistan. On the other hand,

Pakistan is concerned about the heavy Indian presence on its Western borders. This

presence has the biggest repercussion in the Pakistani province of Balochistan.

Furthermore, the situation becomes interesting with the Chinese involvement in

Afghanistan. This role is expected to neutralize the heavy Indian involvement and

promote stability in the process of transition.

Thirdly, there might be multiple scenarios unfolding in Afghanistan Post-2014.

There can either be a hybrid between the Taliban and other factions to form a

government or there can also be a government entirely led by the Taliban. No matter

what the case is, the truth remains that insurgency causing instability might continue if

Afghanistan as a whole is not considered as an entity above every other institution. This

disintegration may be caused from within the country because of two reasons:

presence of local militias both in the form of Arbaki’s and their absorption in the ANA

and ANP is a ground reality. In addition, the heavy dependence of Afghan GDP growth

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on foreign aid, along with involvement of foreign factions in Afghanistan poses grave

threats to the Afghanistan security situation as a whole.

Lastly, the current Afghanistan situation appears bleak. This may be considered

with a three-fold focus: (a) 62% of Afghanistan is still under the control of the resistance

which rises to 72% at night. (b) Opium production is at its peak being 6000 tons

currently under the Americans which was once 50 tons (c) there are no job opportunities

for the locals of Afghanistan, which fuels cross-border infiltration. According to a source,

a total number of 1000 Afghans were stopped by the Afghan border security in their

effort to enter Iran and work on daily wages. Hence, the way forward lies in an

Afghanistan with no Al-Qaeda and a pluralistic arrangement of the Government.

Afghanistan as a whole is a key to the regional peace and security.

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WRAP-UP REMARKS

In his concluding remarks, the Chair opined that rich contributions made by

participants during the discussion will help the guest speaker in formulating a better

report towards the description and solution of the crises in Afghanistan. The salients of

the Chair’s remarks are as follows:-

After twelve years of conflict, Afghan society is so badly injured that there is more

of pessimism and less of optimism in Afghanistan. In this war, having spent so much of

blood and treasure, such an end result was never desired by the stakeholders. All the

hopes are now placed in Afghan National Security Forces that perhaps they will endure

and deliver. The US, the West and the Rest have become so weary of the conflict that

they just want to walk out of it and wash their hands off. Those rudimentary forces that

have been gathered over the last few years are expected to deliver after the withdrawal

where coalition forces collectively have failed to deliver. Therefore, moving out of

Afghanistan without a political solution will not only put these forces under tremendous

stress and pressure but also there is a possibility of the reeruption of conflict in the

country, a situation Pakistan wants to avoid due to obvious reasons.

Therefore, a two-fold suggestion merits consideration: First, having been partner

at the regional and global level and assisted the efforts in Afghanistan for last 35 years,

Pakistan would not like to be re-ditched and left alone like eighties in the face of

unsettled Afghanistan. Second, Afghanistan Security Forces should not be exposed and

expected to defeat an enemy that US and allies have collectively failed to defeat for

twelve years. Therefore, a compromised political solution emerging from within the

people is needed to stabilize Afghanistan.

Furthermore, extremism is a conflicting issue between Islamic world and the

West. It is the area where combined efforts are needed to resolve the differences. There

may be various reasons and causes for extremism amongst Muslims as: Palestine,

Kashmir, Afghanistan Iraq and Iran. Extremism cannot be countered with extremism but

it can be countered by addressing and resolving the root causes and through

reorientation.

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As far as Pakistan and India are concerned, they cannot remain enemies forever.

Nevertheless, both have 65 years of history full of wars and clashes; therefore, Pakistan

cannot afford ‘larger than life’ influence of India in Afghanistan, especially when India

has made ingress in Afghan security forces by way of training, while similar offer from

Pakistan has been denied by Afghanistan. Moreover, while US wants India as its

alternative in Afghanistan, for Pakistan, Indian influence in Afghanistan disturbs the

already upset regional balance of power. US for tactical gains may look for larger Indian

influence in Afghanistan, however strategically it would further destabilize the region.

In Afghanistan, the main effort has been in the south while US has been

operating in the center, creating a disconnect in the need and deployment of forces.

Further to that, Kunar and Nooristan valleys were left as unimportant as General

Patreaus focused on power centers creating a vacuum in those areas for Pakistan. In

addition to that, US started negotiations with Taliban and pressurized Pakistan to

operate against Taliban within Pakistan. Taliban also have held Pakistan by the throat

and by siding with the US, Pakistan was declared ‘infidel’ by the Taliban. It was forced

to deploy one hundred fifty four thousand troops in FATA and Waziristan to fight

Taliban. In its limited capacity, Pakistan has contributed and suffered in terms of men

and material more than the fifty countries collectively did.

Finally, any report coming at this time, should treat the Afghan issue and the

region with objectivity; because there is already lot of animosity in the region. So, the

report coming from an Australian academician should carry the concerns of all

stakeholders equally.

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WORK PLAN

Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon on:Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders

(08 May 2013)

Chair: President NDU

12:20 -12:30 hrs Recitation from Holy Quran Introduction: CVs

12:30-12:50 hrs Brief Remarks by Mr. Ian Dudgeon

12:50-13:10 hrs

Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar:

‘A Perspective on Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Key Pakistani Interests’

13:10 -13:50 hrs Interactive Discussion

13:50 -14:00 hrsWrap up by the Chair /

Presentation of souvenirs

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PROFILES

Speaker: Mr. Ian Dudeon

Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant whose services include policy advice and

reviews of national security issues. He served previously in both the Foreign Affairs and

Trade and Defence portfolios, That service included 16 years as a member of the

Senior Executive Service and 12 years overseas in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

As a Defence official in the 1990s, and later as a consultant, Ian was responsible for

developing the concepts relating to Information Warfare and Information Operations.

He has published and lectured on these and related issues, and was co-author of

Australia and Cyber-Warfare published by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at

ANU in 2008.

Ian has a Bachelor of Economics degree from Monash University, is a graduate of the

Australian Institute of Company Directors, and has attended a residential Advanced

Management Program at Harvard University's Graduate School of Business

Administration. He has served as President of the AIIA ACT Branch since early 2008.

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Discussant: AM (R) Masood Akhtar

Air Marshal (R) Masood Akhtar, is a Distinguished Visiting Faculty at National Defence

University. In his long professional career, he held several key assignments, noteworthy

amongst them as Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Training); Director General National

Accountability Bureau and Chief Instructor at the National Defence University. He was

also Commandant at Air War College and Base Commander at various locations.

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LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

Roundtable with Mr. Ian DudgeonPost 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders

(08th May 2013)

Sr. Name DesignationNDU Command

1. Maj Gen Ziauddin Najam DG ISSRA2. Dr. P.I. Cheema Dean FCS3. AVM Syed Razi Ul Hassan Nawab Dean FSS4. Brig Nazir Ahmed COS

Speaker/Key Discussants5. Mr. Ian Dudgeon6. AM ® Masood Akhtar H # 6, St # 7, Safari Villas, Bahria

Town, Rwp0345-5372008, 0321-5063331mak366@gmail.com

DFMs & Other Distinguished Persons7. Vice Admiral (R) Rao Iftikhar Ahmed

RaoHouse #16, Street # 27, F8/1 IslamabadTel: 051-2851627Mob: 0302-8271388

8. Dr. Fahim Ahmed Khan H#28, St#33, Sector G-9/3, IslamabadTel: 051-28505526Mob: 0301-4144117

9. Lt Gen ® Sardar Mehmood Khan, House # 26, Lane # 6, Defence Complex Islamabad (DCI), Sector E-9 Islamabad

10. Amb Rustam Shah Mohmand House # 124, Hayauddin Road, New Shami Road Colony, Peshawar0300-8599877 (c)

Think Tanks/Universities11. Mr. Salman Khan Researcher, ISSI

Sector F-5/2, Islamabad051-9204423-4

12. Dr. Noor ul Haq SRF/Acting President, IPRIH # 6, St # 63, F-8/4, Islamabad051-9261348-50

13. Mr. Arish ullah Khan Senior Analyst, IRSH # 12 , St # 84, Ataturk Avenue,G-6/4, Islamabad051-9203567/9204934 Ext: 102

14. Dr. Maria Sultan Director General, SASSIH # 427, St # 1, F-11/1, Islamabad051-2290917, 2291061

15. Mr. Sakib Mehmood CPGS

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H#7, St # 3, Safari Villas, RwpISSRA Faculty (all available)

16. Amb Arif Kamal Dir GS/RS17. Brig Amir Yaqub Dir C&C18. Brig Masroor Ahmed Dir DS19. Brig M. Khurshid Khan Dir IS20. Col Khush M. Khan DD Lib21. Lt Col Asim Ahmed DD C & C22. Lt Col Dr. M. Saif ur Rehman DD P & R23. Lt Col Asif Raza DD KC&PP24. Lt Col Manzoor Ahmed Abbasi DD N&MH25. Lt Col Amir Hashmi DD IS&PR26. Ms. Beenish Sultan RA GS/RS27. Muhammad Shabbir RA GS/RS28. 6 x RAs & Interns

FCS Faculty x 1029. Dr. Syed Bashir Hussain HOD GPP30. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar Associate Prof, IR31. Dr. Rizwana Karim Abbasi Asst Prof, S&NS32. Ms Arshi Saleem Hashmi Asst Prof, PCS33. Mr. Shakeel Ahmed Asst Prof, PCS34. Mr. Syed Muhammad Ali Lecturer, IR35. Ms Nargis Zehra Lecturer, IR36. Mr. Adnan Jamil Lecturer, LMS37. Mr. Nasir Mehmood Lecturer, S&NS38. Syed Ali Irtiza Lecturer, PCS

FCS Students x 10 (as designated)39. Mr. Areeb Masood Dept of LMS40. Mr. Rameez Dept of PCS41. Mr. Wasem Iftikhar Janua Dept of PCS42. Mr. Ameer Abdullah Khan Dept of IR43. Ms Tehzeeb Nisar Dept of IR44. Mr. Ali Mustufa Dept of S&NS45. Ms Palwasha Khan Dept of S&NS46. Mr. Bilal Shahid Cheema Dept of GPP47. Mr. Abdur Rehman Dept of GPP48. Mr. Noman Ullah Khan Dept of PCS

Policy Relevant OfficialsMOFA x 1

49. Mr. Javed Jalil Director Afghanistan JSHQ and relevant agencies

50. Capt (N) Munawar51. Lt Col Amir Bashir52. Ms Amna Ejaz

GHQ x 153. Maj Gen Shahid Hashmat Deputy QMG, 8000-32257