“Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and...
Transcript of “Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and...
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Weather instantaneous or synoptic measurements
Climate time / space average
Basic Concepts
“Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and Future”
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Weather - the state of the air and atmosphere at a particular time and place : the temperature and other outside conditions (such as rain, cloudiness, etc.) at a particular time and place
temperature (average energy, ˚C) humidity (water vapor, g/kg) pressure (force/area, mb = 100 N/m2) winds (circulation, m/s) cloud cover (liquid/solid water) precipitation rate (mm/day)
Measurements of the following variables are used to quantify weather
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Climate is often defined as ‘average weather’, usually described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time (typically 30 years).
Climate is also characterized by the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events
A Definition of Climate
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hourly (synoptic)
daily mean daily range (diurnal cycle) monthly mean annual mean annual range (seasonal cycle)
air temperature data
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The average, or mean, of a meteorological variable is:Climate defined
And, the variance (a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out:
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average daily temperature
30-year annual average = 51.7˚F
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average daily temperature
30-year annual average = 51.7˚F
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average daily temperature
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average monthly temperature
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internal dynamics example -
persistent ridging over western North
America
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internal dynamics example - persistent ridging over western North America
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average monthly temperature
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external forcing example - Mt. Pinatubo
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What Factors Are Involved In Changing Earth’s Climate?
Examples of external forcing include: solar variations volcanic eruptions changes in atmospheric composition
The climate system evolves over time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and due to changes in external forcing.
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IPCC, FAQ 1.3, Figure 1
✦ by changing the amount of incoming solar radiation
✦ by changing the fraction of solar radiation that is reflected back to space
✦ by altering the longwave radiation from Earth back towards space
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Radiative forcing of global climate
IPCC, FAQ 2.1, Figures 1 & 2
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Greenhouse gases increase dramatically since industrial revolution
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IPCC, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1
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Long-term record of globally averaged annual temperature
+1.2˚F/century
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Long-term record of annual average temperature for Massachusetts
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Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Massachusetts
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Long-term record of annual average temperature for Vermont
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Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Vermont
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Long-term record of annual average temperature for Maine
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Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Maine
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Lake ice-out
dates
Average ice-out dates for lakes in Maine come about two weeks earlier than they did in the late 19th century
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The length of the growing season in Maine has increased over the last 150 years
-40 to -30ºF -30 to -20ºF -20 to -10ºF -10 to 0ºF 0 to 10ºF
Plant hardiness zones have shifted northward over the past few decades
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River flow
Over the past 50 years flow has tended to increase in early spring and decrease in late spring/early summer
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Model projections of globally averaged surface temperature for
three emissions scenarios
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NCAR climate model
Future climate (21st century)
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✦ it has changed ✦ we see the impacts ✦ some of the change thus far is attributable
to human activity ✦ northern New England, like the rest of the
planet will experience significantly more change in the future
✦ the change impacts things that we care about
✦ we would like to predict future climate change
Observational Record of Global and Regional Climate: Key Facts
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Summary ✦ Greenhouse gas warming is evident
across northern New England
✦ It will continue, at an accelerated rate
✦ Precipitation across the state is likely to increase, less snow, more rain
✦ Climate will be more variable
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Questions?