“Keynote Paper – Market and Applications for · + High quality cutlery and tableware +...
Transcript of “Keynote Paper – Market and Applications for · + High quality cutlery and tableware +...
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“Keynote Paper – Market and Applications forFerritic Stainless Steels”
Markus MollSMR - Steel & Metals Market Research
Austria
CHARLES HATCHETT SEMINAR 2015
CBMM ©
1
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The Role of Niobium in Advanced Ferritic
Stainless Steels
Building a Sustainable Future
presented by
Markus A. Moll
Managing Director
Steel & Metals Market Research
July 15, 2015
London, UK
Confidentiality: This data collection was exclusively prepared.
It may not be copied, published or disclosed to third parties without the permission of SMR GmbH.
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CO
NF
ER
EN
CE
S
20
15
Pro
jec
ts 2
01
4
Austria
GR
OU
P /
TE
AM
/ L
OC
AT
ION
by Type by Regionby ProductSTS LP,
18%
STS FP, 15%
Eng. Steels,
17%
Nickel Alloys,
14%Raw
Materials, 33%
Others, 4%
Europe, 55%
Americas, 12%
Asia, 24%
Others, 10%
Single Client, 70%
Multi Client, 20%
Conference,
10%
ASIA EUROPE AMERICA
in association with Metal Bulletin Events
Oliver
Spaltman
n
Benedikt
Blitz
Dr. Thomas
Windberger
Eveline
Pfeifer
Marku
s
Moll
Wolfgang
Lipp
Sonja
Posc
h
Alina
Racu
Ulrich
Weirather
Robert
Messmer
Jo
Zhu
Wilfred
Lee
Patricia
Moll
Ilona
Spaltman
n
Joy
Tio
Enduse Focused
Single-Client
www.smr.at
Multi-Client
Studies
www.steel-
intelligence.com
Stainless & Special Steel
Events
www.stainless-
conference.com
Werne
r
Bulla
Maximilian
Forster
Corinna
Siebenhüner
Market Intelligence for
High Value Materials
www.smr-premium.com
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Table of Contents
1. The Big Picture
2. Focus on Raw Materials
3. Focus on Ferritic Stainless Steels
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Global Stainless Steel – a story of successChina counts now for almost 50 % of the worldmarket !
-
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
27,000
30,000
33,000
36,000
39,000
42,000
45,000
48,000
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14p
[´0
00
to
nn
es
]
CAGR – Rest of the World:
+4 % p.a.
CAGR - China: +15 %
p.a.
* finished products, excl. Tube & Pipe
CAGR – World
5 % p.a.
20
15f
20
16f
20
17f
20
18f
20
19f
20
20f
CAGR – ROW
+2 % p.a.
CAGR - China:
+5 % p.a.
CAGR – World
3 % p.a.
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Substitution Trends in the Stainless Steel IndustryIt‘s a bumpy ride, but ferritics are heading up!
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
40
0 s
eri
es
[in
%]
30
0 s
eri
es
[ in
% ]
Share - 400series
Share - 300series
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-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
3,300
3,600
[‘0
00
to
nn
es
]
LongProducts
´Top 20` Global Stainless Steel Producers 2014 (est. volumes)
* incl. Fujian Desheng
** incl. Southwest Stainless
*** incl. NTK
**** incl. 13CrOCTG
15 of Top 20 are Asian!
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Quarterly Profitability by MillThe industry is profitable again, but way below target levels
(1,600)
(1,400)
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
Op
era
tin
g P
rofi
t [
€/
t ]
Acerinox Group* Outokumpu* ATI Aperam
* EBIT
** EBT
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
800
Co
ns
olid
ate
d P
rofi
t in
[m
ill.
US
D]
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Table of Contents
1. The Big Picture
2. Focus on Raw Materials
3. Focus on Ferritic Stainless Steels
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Nickel – LME (3-month) Price & LME Stock LevelsNPI becomes the ‘invisible hand’ and a real game changer (Status: July 13, 2015)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
[´0
00
to
nn
es
]
[US
$ /
to
nn
e]
Nickel Price
(3-month)
Nickel
Price
Stocks
LME
Stocks
2020
10 $/lb
7,5 $/lb
Upper NPI Limit: 9$/lb
NPI kicks in massively
Lower NPI Limit: 5.5 $/lb
NPI Disappears
Indonesian Costs?
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Chinese NPI Cost Advantage over Stainless Steel (18-8) ScrapNPI has lost its cost advantage over stainless steel scrap
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
[ $
/ t
]
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Historic Ferro Chrome Price Development
Q2/15 price is at 1.08 $/lb same as in Q1/15
South Africa30%
China37%
Kazhakstan
11%India11%
Russia3%
Others8%
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Table of Contents
1. The Big Picture
2. Focus on Raw Materials
3. Focus on Ferritic Stainless Steels
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Top 15 Ferritic Producers 2014 (estimated crude steel basis)In volume terms, TISCO is a class of ist own
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
[to
nn
es
]
72% of the Global Production
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China44%
Other Asia19%
Europe16%
Americas12%
ROW9%
Ferritic Stainless Steels Consumption by Region… Europe is getting marginalized
Market 2014:
7.8 mill t Asia = 63%
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Market 2014:
37 mill. t
Global Stainless Steel Market by End Use Segment
Consumer Goods
& Catering
47%
Process
Equipment
25%
Automotive &
Heavy Transport
10%
ABC &
Infrastructure
15%Others
3%
30%
Share of 400 series19%
59%
11%
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Industrial Usage13%
Consumer Durables41%
Transportation24%
Construction22%
Global End Use of Ferritic/Martensitic Stainless SteelsWhat is hot and what is not?
Market 2014:
7.8 mill t
+ 410 / 410S for refinery
columns
+ Commercial catering /
bakeries
- 13Cr OCTG
- 420 Pump shafts
+ Anti-fingerprint surfaces
+ High quality cutlery and tableware
+ Replacement of 300 in dish washers
+ High end appliances (energy saving)
- Kitchen surfaces use alternatives
- Plastic internals in budget-
appliances
+ Truck exhausts (Euro 6)
+ Decorative trim
+ Sensors (martensitic)
+ Fuel injection components (martensitic)
+ 409 Containers (only China)
- Long term: e-mobillity
+ Solar water heaters
+ Roofing / Facades (no coastal
build.)
+ Drinking water systems
+ Public infrastructure & streetware
- Stainless Sinks lose market share
- Elevators use increasingly
alternatives
- Plastics vs.stainless in press
fittings
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Car Exhaust74%
Motorbike Exhaust
3%
Motorbike Brake
2%
Containers, Tankers
7%
Other Transportatio
n14%
Transportation System Trends
Car Exhaust
75%
Motorbike Exhaust
3%
Motorbike Brake
3%
Containers, Tankers
6%
Other Transportatio
n13%
2014
Market:
2.270kt
2023
Market:
3.050kt
+780kt
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Ferritic / Martensitic Grade Structure 2014430 grade is still the ferritic ‘workhorse’
40914%
4107%
4203%
4290%
43055%
4341%
4362%
4397%
4417%
4443%
4450% 446
0%
others1%
2014
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Grade Changes of 400 series (2014 – 2023)Grade 441, 444, 436 will grow faster than other grades
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
CA
GR
in
[%
]
Avg Non Nb
Avg. Nb
Avg All Stainless Grades
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Our Events 2015
For more information please visit: www.stainless-conference.com / www.metalbulletin.com/events / www.amm.com/events
October 6 - 8, 2015
Vienna, Austria
14th International Stainless & Special Steel
Summitin association
with
October 27 - 28,
2015
Chicago, USA
29th Stainless & Its Alloys Conference
in association
with
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Any Questions ... or comments?