“Big Picture” Economic Development Study of Falls...
Transcript of “Big Picture” Economic Development Study of Falls...
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“Big Picture” Economic Development Study of Falls
Church
Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy
George Mason University
May 2005
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Purpose and Objectives
Examine major trends at the national, regional, and local levels in terms of the implications and relevance of the development trends for the future of the City of Falls Church
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Presentation Outline
1. U.S. Trends2. Washington Metro Trends3. Counter Trends4. Falls Church comparisons to U.S., Washington
Region, Arlington and Fairfax Counties5. Falls Church comparisons to its immediate
environs – adjacent areas in Arlington and Fairfax6. Development Trends and How they could impact
Falls Church
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1 - U.S. Trends
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The US Economy: GDP
0
10
20
30
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
36.8% 39.1% 38.0% 33.3% 29.7% 24.9%
Trillions of 2000 $
35.1%
05 15
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Impending Crisis: Skilled Labor ShortageResulting from Workforce Age Wave
90100110120130140150160170
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010
Labor Force
Jobs
7.6 M More People than Jobs
Millions
10.0 M More Jobs than People
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U.S. Trends Summary• GDP grows more slowly as population and
labor force growth moderate• Aging of work force generates labor
shortages over the next decade• Immigration and increased labor force
participation helped to meet demand in the past; diminished sources for the future
• Changing structure of the economy – favors services jobs with professional services jobs dominating
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2 – Washington Metro Trends
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Metro Comparisons Job Change Last Five Years
15 Largest Metro Areas
-109-103
-88-72
-2232363642
8688
103144150
191287
-150 -50 50 150 250
Chicago
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Boston
Seattle
Dallas
Atlanta
Minneapolis
Philadelphia
Houston
New York
Los Angeles
Phoenix
Miami
ThousandsWASHINGTON
Annual Data
No. Virginia
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Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
LocalBusiness
42%
Non-LocalBusiness10%
Federal 34.5% Procurement
15.0%
Assn 2.5%Hosp. 2.5%
Int’l 5%
Other 3.5%
Other Federal19.4 %
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Gross Regional ProductWashington MSA
1970 - 2030
83.3118.9
191.5268.8
479.2
597.4
370
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Billions of 2005 $
2005 = $311.3
2015 =$425.2
70-00 = +222.7% or 3.98%/Yr
00-30 = +115.6% or 2.70 %/yr
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Jobs: DC and Suburbs1950 - 2002
000s
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002002
82% 24%
Suburbs
DC
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20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Share of Washington Area Jobs1970-2005
No. Virginia
Sub MD
DC
% o
f Reg
iona
l Job
s
42%
21%
30%
28%
45%
34%
Year
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Current and Projected Housing Demand –Nearby Jurisdictions
County -Year
Total Jobs HH-Job Equivalent
Housing Deficit
Arlington –Alexandria
2005 312,100 239,200 -45,6002015 358,600 251,900 -66,700
Fairfax Co2005 847,900 642,000 -128,7002015 1,118,500 761,200 -223,300
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Workers Commuting into Beltway and Central Jurisdictions from Outer Counties:
1970-2000
64,200
172,000
300,000
440,700
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000
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PMSA Jobs and Populationby Decade
0100200300400500600700800900
50s
60s
70s
80s
90s
00s
10s
000s
JOBS
POP
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Metro Trends Summary
• Area job trends tops nation• National capital functions and federal
spending dominate area economy• Area economic growth shift to Northern VA• Area economic growth moderates in out
years as population and job growth slow• Close-in housing shortages drive housing
price increases and commuting
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3 – Counter Trends
• Business Cycles• 4 & 8-year Election Cycle + 1• Generational Cycle
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US Economic Outlook:2005 – 2015
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2010 20150
1
2
3
4%Trillions
Of 2005$
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4 - How does Falls Church compare to trends and
characteristics of the U.S., Washington metro, and its neighboring jurisdictions?
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Falls Church Less Diverse Racially…
Percent White in 2000
75.1
60.169.9 68.9
85.0
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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And Falls Church has not experienced as much of foreign born growth as Arl/Ffx…
Percent Foreign Born in 2000
11.116.9
24.5 27.816.1
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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Falls Church Has Fewer Children except for Arlington…
Percent Population 0-19 in 2000
28.5 27.8 27.418.2
24.8
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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Falls Church 65+ More like U.S. Than Region and Neighbors…
Percent Population 65+ in 2000
12.4 9.1 7.9 9.4 12.2
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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Falls Church more like Arlington in having more smaller households and fewer large
households
58.4 57.3 54.0
72.566.0
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
1-25+
%
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Falls Church residents are better educated
Percent of Pop 25+ with a Bachelor’s andgraduate degree in 2000
8.918.8
24.4 30.6 33.8
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
Grad.
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Falls Church and Arlington lead in Labor Force participation by women…
Percent Women in LF in 2000
57.565.6 66.1 69.3 68.2
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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Falls Church Leads all in percent who work at home and in self-employed…
3.2 3.7 4.23.4
5.06.1
5.4 5.54.5
7.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
Solid bars = work at home; hatched = self-employed
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And Falls Church Leads all in percent employed in management, professional
occupations…Percent in Mgmt. & Prof. Occ. in 2000
33.6
48.555.2 60.2 65.6
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
%
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Falls Church leads in per capita income…Per capita Income in 1999
21.630.4
36.9 37.7 41.1
0102030405060708090
100
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
$ 000s
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Falls Church housing values are higher
Median housing value in 1999
119.6
179.8
233.3262.4 277.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch
$ 000s
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% of Houses (Existing) Sold by Price Range in 2004Washington MSA and Falls Church
3.4
42.9
53.6
17.0
64.5
18.5
0
25
50
75
< $200K $200K - $500K > $500K
F ChMSA
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Percent All Units
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Relative to the U.S., MSA, Fairfax, and Arlington – Falls Church …
• Is less diverse• Has fewer children (except for Arlington)• Is more like the US than the region in
retirement age population• Has smaller HH except for Arlington• Has higher education levels
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Relative to the U.S., MSA, Fairfax, and Arlington – Falls Church …
• Has more 2-worker households• Has more workers working at home• Has more workers in management and
professional occupations• Has higher incomes• And higher housing values
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5 - How does Falls Church compare to trends and
characteristics of its immediate environs – adjacent areas in
Arlington and Fairfax
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Falls Church Immediate Environs – Tract Groups
F Ch 53
12 4
TYSON’SCORNER
R-B CORRIDOR
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Falls Church and Its Environs
Measure Falls Church
Environs Diff
% White 85.0 65.1 + 19.9% Foreign Born 16.1 35.8 - 19.7% Pop < 20 yrs 24.8 23.4 + 1.4
% Pop 65+ yrs 12.2 10.1 - 2.1% 1 or 2-pers HH 66.0 61.8 + 4.2% HH with 5+ pers 6.6 11.9 - 5.4
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Falls Church and Its Environs
Measure Falls Church
Environs Diff
% College Degree 63.7 48.3 + 15.4% LF Participation of Women
68.2 63.6 + 4.6
% Work @ Home 5.0 3.5 + 1.5
% Self-Employed 7.2 5.6 + 1.6% in Prof/Mgmt Jobs 65.6 50.7 + 14.9Per capita Income $45,800 $35,400 +$10,400
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6 – Development Trends and How they could impact
Falls Church
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Falls Church’s 2 Economies
• Internal Demand– Residents– Businesses– Government and Non-profits
• External Demand from Surrounding Markets– Federal Government/Contractors– Tyson’s Corner– Northern Virginia
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Internal Market Demand(in millions of 2005$)
Category Current New* Total Sq Ft(000s)
Groceries $39.1 $12.9 $52.0 115.6
Retail 24.6 8.1 32.7 72.7
Health Care 26.8 8.8 35.6 142.4
Personal Care 7.7 2.6 10.3 22.9
Ent. & Restaurant 45.0 14.9 59.9 133.1
TOTALS $143.2 $47.3 $190.5 486.6
* + 1000 Households
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External Market Demand
• Surrounding Households Disposable Income* .…….– Retail & Food Services…….– Personal Services &
Health Care ……………......– Entertainment ……………...
$1.602 billion$650 million
$259 million$163 million
* Excludes housing and other non-local spending
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Projected Job Growth in Northern Virginia = 432,600
Office Worker Growth 210,460Office Space Demand 52.6 msf
Retail Worker Growth 38,500Retail Space Demand 17.3 msf
Hotel/Restaurant Worker Growth 46,720Restaurant Space Demand 14.7 msfHotel Space Demand 15,000 rm
msf = millions of square feet, rm = rooms
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Key Trends Driving Falls Church’s Development
• Northern Virginia’s rapid growth• Growth of high quality jobs• Aging of population and growth of
“early” and “empty” nesters• Shortage of housing and increasing
housing prices
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Key Trends Driving Falls Church’s Development
• Increased commuting and congestion costs making close-in areas even more in demand
• Changing patterns of density and mix of uses to meet the needs and preferences of an increasingly diverse and urban population
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Public Policy Actions That Could Effect Trends
• Homeland Security• BRAC – DOD Agency Relocation
from Leased Office Space• Metro Extension to Dulles and
Loudoun County
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Public Policy Actions That Could Effect Trends
• I-66 Widening • Doubling of Tyson’s Expansion• Redevelopment/Intensification of
East Falls Church Metro• City of Falls Church Land Use and
Economic Development Policies
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LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION
TYSON’SCORNER
ROSSLYN-BALLSTONCORRIDOR
Rest of Northern Virginia
FALLSCHURCH
Falls Church is at a critical juncture in its development as a city and community with significant opportunities to shape its future.…