ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412

8/2/2019 ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412

1/8

ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY DAILYContacts: Mark Pervan +613 9273 3716 | [email protected]

Natalie Robertson +613 9273 3415 | [email protected]

Overn i gh t Wr ap

Crud e fe l l a f te r d isappo in t in g US labour da t a Go ld up on w eake r US do l l a r & sa f e -haven b i ds Base m eta ls c losed, bu t negat i v e tone expected Newc coa l spo t p r i ce up , bu t ac t i v i t y subdued

Da i ly Ranked Pr i ce M oves (% )

(1.1)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.5

(1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0

S&P 500

Co al (NEWC)

Silver

USD (DXY)

Brent Oil

WTI Oil

Aluminium

Copper

Nickel

Zinc

Lead

Tin

Baltic F reight

Platinum

Gold

Note: Easter holidays no change for base metals & freight rates

Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL

Week l y Ranked Pr i ce Moves (% )

(4.3)

(3.4)

(2.6)

(2.6)

(2.3)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.0)

0.8

1.0

1.2

(5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0

Silver

Copper

WTI Oil

S&P 500

Brent Oil

Gold

Platinum

Aluminium

Baltic F reight

Tin

Zinc

Lead

Co al (NEWC)

Nickel

USD (DXY)

Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL

Overn igh t Them es Commodity markets that were closedover the Easter Holidays are expected to soften after market

sentiment took a hit on Friday night. A much weaker-than-

expected US non-farm payrolls result and concerns that Spain

would be the next in line to receive a bailout set a negative

tone. The US 10-year yield has fallen sharply and peripheral

European bond yields continued to rise. US non-farm payrolls

rose by 120k in March (mkt: +205k) but the unemployment

rate fell 0.1ppts to 8.2% alongside a decline in the participation

rate. Warmer weather likely boosted jobs during the Jan/Feb,

while the March outcome potentially reflected an unwinding of

seasonal factors. However, we note that employment gains of

around 200k are consistent with a broad range of employment

lead indicators and we expect that jobs growth will bounce back

to this pace over the next few months. In China, CPI inflation

for March printed a touch higher than market expectations at

3.6% y/y (mkt: 3.4% y/y), which could also dampen market

expectations for further cuts in policy. Our colleagues in China

believe a RRR cut could be postponed until May or June.

Crude benchmarks dec l ined s l igh t ly , reacting to the weakUS employment data on Friday and reports of a meeting

scheduled between Iran and the West over their nuclear

program. Front-month WTI crude oil fell to the lowest level

since February, before rebounding into the close. Although

Brents premium over WTI remained above the US$20/bbllevel. Oil prices fell over 2% for the week after US FOMC

minutes lowered expectations of further easing, but the

disappointing employment read could reignite this case,

potentially supporting crude markets going forward.

Go l d f i r m e d b y 0 . 5 % t o U S$ 1 , 6 4 0 / o z on a weaker USdollar, but the weekly average remained in negative territory.

Safe-haven bids could have been reinstated, but it is likely that

prices were supported by hopes of US policy easing after

weaker than expected US employment data. Gold could also

receive a boost this week as Chinas real interest rates turned

negative again, but an uncertain inflation outlook implies the

PBoC will remain cautious in its policy operations.

Base met a ls were c losed for ho l idays , but prices willpotentially remain under pressure during trade today after a

triple whammy of weaker US data, Spanish sovereign risk, and

an uncertain inflation outlook in China (potentially lowering

expectations of further monetary policy easing). This week the

major Chinese economic indicators will likely influence

direction. Today, we expect Chinese trade data for March to

show a surplus of US$9.6bn (mkt: US$3.15bn deficit) on

improving demand from the US and emerging Asia.

Newcas t l e spo t coa l p r i ces s t r eng t hened t o US$106 / t ona week ly bas i s, but activity was quiet ahead of the Easter

Holidays. Indias state-owned utility NTPC announced a 5mt

5,800-6,500kcal/kg coal import tender with supplies to be

completed within four months from July 2012. We could see

some near-term upside from India, with local coal customer

stocks tighter on the ground than in China.

Apr i l 10 , 2012


2/8

Pr ice Data

Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

LME BASE METALS (US$/t) LME BASE METALS (kt)

Aluminium 2,072 0.0 (0.8) (5.2) (0.6) Aluminium 5,059 0.0 (0.4) (0.6) 1.8

Copper 8,382 0.0 (3.4) (0.8) 11.9 Copper 265 0.0 2.8 (3.3) (27.8)

Nickel 18,336 0.0 1.0 (4.4) (3.9) Nickel 100 0.0 (0.4) 3.4 11.5

Zinc 2,000 0.0 (0.2) (3.7) 7.0 Zinc 895 0.0 (0.2) 3.3 9.3

Lead 2,059 0.0 (0.0) (2.4) 6.1 Lead 375 0.0 (0.6) 3.0 6.8

Tin 23,115 0.0 (0.3) (1.3) 17.1 Tin 13 0.0 (0.2) 12.5 15.4

PRECI OUS METALS (US$/oz) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Gold 1,640 0.5 (2.2) (3.6) 1.8

Gold (A$/oz) 1,589 0.4 (1.2) (2.0) 0.7 S&P 500 1,382 (1.1) (2.6) 0.8 7.9

Silver 31.5 (0.5) (4.3) (6.3) 8.7 VIX Volatility Index 19 12.6 20.3 20.3 (10.7)

Platinum 1,615 0.5 (2.2) (4.7) 13.2 CRB Index 305 (0.5) (2.4) (3.5) (2.2)

Palladium 644 (0.3) (1.8) (8.2) 4.6 LME Metals Index 3,567 0.0 (2.1) (2.4) 7.5

ENERGY (US$/bbl) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

WTI Oil* 102.5 (0.1) (2.6) (3.6) 1.1

Brent Oil* 122.6 (0.2) (2.3) (2.2) 9.0 Baltic Freight Rate 928 0.0 (0.6) 10.9 (29.1)

Sing Gasoil 0.5% 134.2 0.0 (0.4) (2.5) 3.2 Baltic Capesize 1,507 0.0 5.6 0.7 (32.4)

Sing Fuel Oil 180cst(US$/t) 739 0.0 (0.7) (0.1) 3.0 Baltic Panamax 1,036 0.0 (1.4) 13.6 (31.2)

OTHER (US$/t) Baltic Handysize 547 0.0 (2.7) 14.4 (1.3)

China HR Coil (RmB/t) 4,387 0.3 0.3 1.6 4.0 Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Richards Bay Coal API4 102.7 0.0 (1.6) (0.5) (2.8)

Newcastle Coal 106.0 (0.7) 0.8 (4.6) (7.3) DXY - USD Index 79.8 (0.4) 1.2 (0.1) (1.6)

Australia Coking Coal** 207.5 1.1 (1.9) (7.3) AUD/USD - Aussie 1.032 0.1 (1.0) (1.7) 1.1

Iron Ore Spot 147.6 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.4 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.823 0.7 (0.1) 0.7 4.8

Com m od i t ies I n v en t o r ies% Ch an g e % Ch ang e

% Ch a n g eCurrencies

% Ch a n g eKey Ind i ces

% Ch a n g eFre ight

* Front-month futures** Weekly prices

Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, Argus Coal

US Com m odi ty Futu res Trad ing Comm iss ion (CFTC) Dat a

Sp ot 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h 6 Mt h 1 2 Mt h Sp ot 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h 6 Mt h 1 2 Mt h

Gold (t) WTI Crude O i l (mbbls)

Long 562 594 789 531 608 845 Long 396 412 419 327 326 430

Short 97 96 100 109 114 127 Short 100 100 85 113 128 97

Net Position 465 498 689 422 494 718 Net Position 295 313 333 214 198 333

Open Interest 1,938 1,949 2,294 1,999 2,566 2,212 Open Interest 1,569 1,562 1,518 1,373 1,381 1,567

Si lver (t) Natura l G as (1000 mmbtu)

Long 4,800 4,440 6,474 4,322 3,967 7,717 Long 2,799 2,694 2,480 1,818 1,474 1,591

Short 1,168 1,031 943 2,213 873 1,307 Short 4,076 4,216 3,823 3,429 3,195 3,260

Net Position 3,632 3,408 5,531 2,109 3,094 6,409 Net Position (1,277) (1,522) (1,343) (1,611) (1,721) (1,669)


Copper (kt) RBOB Gasol ine (m gallons)

Long 545 502 496 336 339 525 Long 4,824 4,485 4,689 3,567 2,727 3,424

Short 438 412 378 354 355 271 Short 724 665 818 900 1,200 633

Net Position 107 90 119 (18) (16) 254 Net Position 4,101 3,820 3,870 2,667 1,527 2,791


ENERGYMETALSAct u al Act u al

Note: Closing prices at 10 April 2012

Source: Bloomberg


3/8

Dat a Ca lenda r W eek Beg inn i ng 26 M arch 2012

DATE COUNTRY DATA/ EVENT PERI OD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST

9-Apr JP Current Account Total FEB - - - - -437.3B 23:50 09:50

Monday Trade Balance - BOP Basis FEB - - - - -1381.6B 23:50 09:50

CH Producer Price Index YoY MAR -0.3% - - 0.0% 01:30 11:30

Consumer Price Index YoY MAR 3.4% - - 3.2% 01:30 11:30

EU Sentix Investor Confidence APR - - - - -8.2 08:30 18:30

Lloyds Employment Confidence MAR - - - - -69 23:01 09:01

RICS House Price Balance MAR - - - - -13.0% 23:01 09:01

US Business Outlook Future Sales 1Q - - - - -4 14:30 00:30

10-Apr JP BOJ Target Rate 10-Apr - - - - 0.1% 14:00 00:00

Tuesday Machine Tool Orders YoY MAR P - - - - -8.6% 06:00 16:00

CH Trade Balance (USD) MAR -$6.20B - - -$31.48B 14:00 00:00

Exports YoY MAR 7.0% - - 18.4% 14:00 00:00

Imports YoY MAR 10.5% - - 39.6% 14:00 00:00

GE Exports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00

Imports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00

Current Account (EURO) FEB - - - - 8.0B 06:00 16:00

Trade Balance FEB - - - - 13.1B 06:00 16:00

US NFIB Small Business Optimism MAR - - - - 94.3 11:30 21:30

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR - - - - 47.5 14:00 00:00

JOLTs Job Openings FEB - - - - 3459 14:00 00:00

Wholesale Inventories FEB - - - - 0.4% 14:00 00:00

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY MAR - - - - 0.8% 23:50 09:50

Bank Lending incl Trusts YoY MAR - - - - - - 23:50 09:50

11-Apr JP Machine Orders YoY FEB - - - - 5.7% 23:50 09:50

Wednesday US MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Apr - - - - - - 11:00 21:00

Import Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30

Import Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 5.5% 12:30 22:30

Fed's Beige Book 18:00 04:00

Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey 18:00 04:00

Monthly Budget Statement MAR - - - - - - 18:00 04:00

12-Apr EU ECB Publishes April Monthly Report 08:00 18:00

Thursday Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda YoY FEB - - - - -1.5% 09:00 19:00

US Trade Balance FEB - - - - -$52.6B 12:30 22:30

Producer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 3.3% 12:30 22:30

Initial Jobless Claims 7-Apr - - - - - - 12:30 22:30

13-Apr CH Industrial Production YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00

Friday Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY MAR - - - - 21.5% 02:00 12:00

Real GDP QoQ 1Q - - - - 2.0% 02:00 12:00

Real GDP YoY 1Q - - - - 8.9% 02:00 12:00

Retail Sales YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00GE Consumer Price Index YoY MAR F - - - - 2.1% 06:00 16:00

US Consumer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 12:30 22:30

Consumer Price Index Nsa MAR - - - - 227.663 12:30 22:30

U. of Michigan Confidence APR P - - - - - - 13:55 23:55

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Research


4/8

M ov ing Ave rages

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12

Spo t price 50-day 200-day

ALUMI NI UMUS$/t

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000



COPPERUS$/t

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000



NI CKELUS$/t

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800


Spot price 50-day 200-day

ZI NCUS$/t

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000



LEADUS$/t

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000



GOLDUS$/o

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



SI LVERUS$/oz

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100



PLATI NUMUS$/oz

50

70

90

110

130

150

Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12Spo t price 50-day 200-day

NEWCASTLE COALUS$/t

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120



OI LUS$/bbl

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15



AUSTRALI AN DOLLARUS$

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12Spo t price 50-day 200-day

I RON OREUS$/t

Note: Closing prices at 6 April 2012. Sources: Bloomberg, globalCOAL, ANZ Commodity Strategy


5/8


6/8

ANZ Forecast Table 1

COMMODI TY Un i t Ju n - 1 1 Sep - 1 1 Dec- 1 1 Mar - 1 2 Ju n - 1 2 Sep - 1 2 Dec- 1 2 Mar - 1 3 Ju n - 1 3 Sep - 1 3 Dec- 1 3

BASE METALS

Aluminium US$/lb 1.18 1.09 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.06

Copper US$/lb 4.16 4.07 3.41 3.62 3.85 3.98 4.08 4.08 4.13 4.15 3.95

Nickel US$/lb 11.05 9.98 8.34 8.70 9.15 9.70 10.15 10.25 10.40 10.45 10.15

Zinc US$/lb 1.02 1.01 0.86 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.04

Lead US$/lb 1.16 1.11 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.07

Tin US$/lb 13.08 11.16 9.45 9.09 9.45 9.75 10.30 10.55 10.80 10.95 10.80

PRECI OUS METALS

Gold US$/oz 1,508 1,706 1,683 1,632 1,740 1,790 1,815 1,855 1,870 1,830 1,770

Platinum US$/oz 1,785 1,771 1,531 1,526 1,685 1,700 1,700 1,765 1,795 1,765 1,725Palladium US$/oz 760 752 630 673 700 730 775 820 850 850 838

Silver US$/oz 38.5 38.9 31.8 31.2 34.8 35.3 36.2 37.4 37.5 36.9 36.3

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX US$/bbl 102.5 89.5 94.1 102.4 107.0 108.5 111.0 114.5 116.5 116.0 114.5

Dated Brent US$/bbl 117.0 112.9 109.3 115.8 123.5 122.5 123.0 124.5 125.0 123.5 121.0

Uranium US$/lb 56.4 51.8 52.6 53.1 56.0 60.5 65.0 68.5 71.5 74.0 76.0

BULKS

Thermal coal2 US$/t 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 125.0 125.0 125.0

Premium hard coking US$/t 330.0 315.0 285.0 235.0 206.0 215.0 220.0 220.0 225.0 225.0 220.0

Hard coking US$/t 300.0 290.0 265.0 225.0 196.0 195.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 195.0

Semi-soft coking coal US$/t 275.0 230.0 208.0 171.0 151.0 170.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 170.0

Iron ore lump US$/t 206.1 202.0 177.6 168.0 175.2 180.0 183.9 183.9 181.5 176.7 173.2

Iron ore fines US$/t 171.8 168.3 148.0 140.0 146.0 150.0 152.0 152.0 150.0 146.0 142.0

OTHER METALS

Alumina US$/t 326 300 262 265 278 280 288 291 288 288 291

Molybdenum US$/lb 16.7 14.6 13.4 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.7

Cobalt US$/lb 18.3 17.1 15.1 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.0

EXCHAN GE RATES

AUD/USD US$ 1.08 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10

NZD/USD US$ 0.82 0.83 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90

EUR/USD US$ 1.46 1.41 1.35 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.34

USD/JPY 81.03 76.78 77.48 80.06 78.96 75.67 73.00 70.67 70.00 70.00 70.00

USD/CAD C$ 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10

USD/CNY Yuan 6.46 6.38 6.36 6.29 6.27 6.23 6.14 6.10 6.08 #/NA #/NA

Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1

Source: ANZ Commodity Strategy


7/8

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8/8

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ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412

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Transcript of ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412