Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response
description
Transcript of Anthropogenic Climate Change Science and Response
Anthropogenic Climate ChangeAnthropogenic Climate ChangeScience and ResponseScience and Response
Phillip O’Brien [email protected]
Climate Change Unit, EPA
Atmospheric Physics, NUI, Galway
Outline of Seminar
Who am I? Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Research Programme Review of Basic Science Recent Research findings International Response to Climate Change National Emissions Inventory (2010)
Who am I?
BSc Applied Physics DCU MSc Experimental Physics NUI.Galway
Research Ozone and Air Quality modelling Methane field measurement and Inverse Modelling Inventory methodology, Land Use
NUIG, NUIM, University of London EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
Independent Government Body
Environmental Protection Agency Act, 1992. Waste Management Act, 1996. Protection of the Environment Act, 2003.
Proposed Climate Change Act (2011?)
Approximately 250 people Headquarters in Wexford 5 regional offices Dublin, Cork, Kilkenny, Monaghan, Castlebar
Roles of EPA
Environmental licensing Enforcement of environmental law Environmental planning, education and guidance Monitoring, analysing and reporting on the environment Regulating Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions Environmental research development Strategic environmental assessment Waste management
Climate Change Research Programme
CCRP
2007-2013 42 research on-going projects Carbon Neutrality by 2050 Examples
Carbon Capture and Storage Potential in Ireland Climate Change Indictors and Impacts in Ireland Extreme Events in the Historic and Instrumental Records Quantifying the Capture and Use of Methane from Landfills Quantfying Methane Emission from Livestock Analysis of Options for Sustainable Transport
Review Basic Science
Basic Science: Incoming Radiation
1365 wm-2
Incoming at
top of atmosphere
342 wm-2
Incoming at surface
Basic Science Cntd. Energy Budget
Balance at top of atmosphere 342 in 107+235 (342) out
Balance at surface 168+ 324 (492)in 24+78+390 (492) out
Causes of Climate Change: Celestial MechanicsChanges in Earth Orbit etc.
Next Ice Age30,000yrs
Causes of Climate ChangeVolcanic Activity and Geological Erosion
Current global volcanic activity amount to just 1/150th of the CO2 emissions from Fossil fuels
In the past CO2 concentrations were indeed much higher (3000ppb) than now (385 ppb)
The processes of erosion gradually remove CO2 from the atmosphere
Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability
http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/
Solar variability does have an impact on ClimateThere is evidence that an extended period of reduced solar activity called the Maunder Minimum caused the so called “Little Ice Age” (1645-1750)
Causes of Climate ChangeSolar Variability
Recent Climate Change does not correlated well with observed solar activity.
Causes of Climate ChangeAerosol effects
Global dimming thought to have masked warming during the 1960’s and 70’s
Causes of Climate ChangeChanges in Land Surface
This is important,Second only to GHG emissions for causes climate change in modern times (25% of warming)
Due to human activity and impact of climate change on natural ecosystems
Land surface is darker (aborbs more incoming radiation)
Loss of vegetation, major terrestrial store of carbon (converted to CO2)
Causes of Climate ChangeGreenhouse Gases
Water vapour (H2O)Accounts for about 60% of Greenhouse effect. However, it is not a driver of climate change. It’s present in the atmosphere is a response (feedback) to the initial driver
Ian Stewart demonstration of CO2 absorption
Drivers of Climate Change relative to 1750Radiative Forcing
Attribution: It’s “mostly likely” GHG
Observations
IPCC AR4
Aside:The Scientific Method and Global Climate Models Make an observation Propose a theory/explanation Make more observations designed to test the theory
Observations from experiments Repeatable Control over conditions Universal
Observations from the Environment Usually once off events Little or no control Site specific
AsideClimate Model development
AsideGlobal Climate Models
The theory predicts
Increase temperature in lower atmosphere
Decrease in temperature in the stratosphere
Global temperatures Observations agreed with model
Sea Level Rise
PNAS April 2010
Global Warming Observation
Global Climate Change is on-going 0.15-0.20 oC/decade
Jim Hansen et al, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Models are not perfect
Arctic Sea Ice Extent is changing rapidly Models do not currently capture this
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
US National Snow and Ice ServiceThe Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)
Drought patterns
Palmer Drought Severity Index
Global emissions
IPCC, UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 1989 United Nations Environment Programme and WMO Assessment of science, policy neutral
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992, in response to the IPCC First Assessment Report (1991)
Kyoto Protocol, KP 1997 (came into force 2007 when Russia ratified, US failed to ratify) Coincided with Second Assessment Report 2008-2012
Copenhagen Accord December 2009 International support for the “2oC Target”
Mexico Agreement December 2010
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
The proposed pathway to reducing the risk of dangerous climate change
Changing Energy Landscape
IPCC
Assessment Reports FAR 1990 SAR 1995 TAR 2001 AR4 2007, Nobel Prize AR5 2013
Special Reports Carbon Capture and Storage 2005 Technology Transfer 2000 Emission Scenarios 2000
Technical Papers Mitigation Options in Agriculture Climate Change and Water
Methodology Reports Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines
for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm
Cascading level of decision making and increasing detail from the Convention down to the CRF and GPG (1992-2006)
The Marrakesh
Accordsto
The Kyoto Protocol
National Emissions Inventory
What is an Emissions Inventory? Estimate of the release to the environment (atmosphere) of a
variety of pollutant or environmental harmful species, over a given period (usually one year)
Inferred from activity data which is directly related to the emission E.g. petrol sales (carbon dixoide), number of livestock (methane), fertiliser sales
(nitrous oxide)
Accurately represent local (national) circumstances as far as is reasonable
Comprehensive, identify and evaluate all sources Compromise between precision and cost and complexity Agreed methodology
National Emissions 1990-2008
Rapid increase in 1990’s
Stabilised or slightly decreasing since 2001
2008 67Mt CO2 eq 2.5Mt above Target even with Forest Sink
NIR 2010 (Provisional
Sectoral Breakdown of Emissions Trends
Energy encouraging trend since 2001
Agriculture contracting Residential steady Industry increasing
gradually
Transport emissions nearly triple
Forest Sink is about 2xWaste source (not shown)
The Future
Tesla Electric Roadster
Wind Turbine
Thank you
Ice loss
Proxy reconstruction of temperature
AR4 Summary for Policymakers