Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
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Transcript of Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
Anthony Hobley
Chief Executive Officer
Helsinki, 20th May 2014
Financial experts making carbon investment risk
visible today in the capital market.
Anthony Hobley - Chief Executive Officer
Mark Campanale - Founder and Executive Director
Jon Grayson - Chief Operating Officer
James Leaton - Research Director
Luke Sussams - Senior Researcher
Reid Capalino - Senior Researcher
John Wunderlin - Staff Attorney US
Margherita Gagliardi - Communications Officer
Tracy Trainor - Office Manager
Jeremy Leggett - Chair, Board of Directors
Mark Campanale - Deputy Chairman
Anthony Hobley - Executive Director
Alice Chapple - Non Executive Director
Cary Krosinsky - Non Executive Director
Who we are
Our funders
Our formula
...by translating climate science and policy
into the language of finance.
Our work is aimed to align climate risk
with capital market risk...
What we do
Our research has created a new debate around
climate change and investment.
Our stakeholders
Our research path
We are not about divestment
…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”. Bill McKibben, Co-founder of 350.org
We are about responsible
risk management
This report shows very clearly the gross inconsistency between current valuations of fossil fuel assets and the path governments have committed to take in order to manage the huge risks of climate change. Prof. Lord Stern of Brentford Chair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE
Carbon budget deficit for listed companies
Current listed reserves (762
GtCO2)
far exceed a quarter of
the carbon budgets
but could double (1541 GtCO2)
If we break the 2°C budget we
very quickly hit 2.5°C and 3°C
Current reserves on stock exchanges (2013)
Potential reserves on stock exchanges (2013)
Rebalancing is needed between flows.
Carbon Supply Cost Curves. First Report on Oil (2014)
Carbon supply and oil production by
global producer category (2014-2050)
Stress-testing the logic of rising
upstream oil capital expenditure
Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Oil
Carbon and oil production
by producer by BEOP: 2014-2050
Private conventional: Total carbon & oil
production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050
Private unconventional: Total carbon & oil
production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050
Conventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)
Unconventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)
Key locations by CAPEX (2014 to 2025)
and carbon production (2014 to 2050)
Map of oil provinces with high cost
potential production
Mark Fulton, ex DB Head of Research,
presents the key findings
Recommendations for Investors