Annual Water Outlook 2018 · 2018-12-05 · Rare 1-4% ; Event may occur only in exceptional...
Transcript of Annual Water Outlook 2018 · 2018-12-05 · Rare 1-4% ; Event may occur only in exceptional...
Legend
Water District
Lakes
Barwon Water reservoir
Water channel/pipelines
Main sewer
Water service basin/tank
Water treatment plant
Groundwater production bores
Sewer Flow Management Facility
Recycled water pipeline
Water reclamation plants
Recycled Water Plant
Recycled water tank
Special water supply catchment
Kilometres
Scale
0 1.5 3 6 9 12 15
Service Area
Ballan Ch
annel
Bostock
Channel
Wurd
ee Bol
uc
Inlet Channel
LakeCorangamite
LakeCundare
LakeWeeringLakeWeering
LakeGnarpurt
LakeRosine
Lake BeeacLake Beeac
LakeColacLakeColac
LakeMurdedukeLakeMurdeduke
LakeModewarreLakeModewarre
LakeConnewarre
Corio Bay
Bass Strait
CundarePool
Wurdee BolucReservoir
West BarwonReservoir
West GellibrandReservoir Olangolah
Reservoir
AllenReservoir
PainkalacReservoir
Lower Stony CreekReservoir
Upper Stony CreekReservoir
Lal LalReservoir
BostockReservoir
KorweingubooraReservoir
Barwon DownsBorefield
AngleseaBorefield
Marengo
Apollo Bay
Skenes Creek
Beech ForestKennett River
Wye River
Lorne
Aireys Inlet
Fairhaven
Anglesea
Torquay
BreamleaBarwon Heads
Ocean Grove
Mount Duneed
Point Lonsdale
Queenscli�
St Leonards
Indented Head
Portarlington
Drysdale
Leopold
Geelong
Moriac
Mt Moriac
Lara
Bannockburn
Little River
Werribee
Anakie
Lethbridge
Meredith
Elaine
Steiglitz
She Oaks
Bacchus Marsh
Ballan
Ballarat
Colac
Shelford
Inverleigh
Cressy
Winchelsea
BeeacDreeite
Alvie
Coragulac
Irrewarra
BirregurraStoneyford
Pirron Yallock
Deans Marsh
Bambra
Forrest
Kawarren
Gellibrand
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
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70%
80%
90%
100%
Stor
age
volu
me
(ML)
Stor
age
perc
ent f
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Restriction range
ActualStorage
In a median climate this is the most likely
outcome.
In a dry climate, storages could
follow this level.
If storages fall into this restriction range, we may consider implementing water restrictions.
How to read this document
Scale of water restriction likelihood Likelihood rating
Description
Very Rare
<1%
Event may occur only in extraordinary circumstances
Rare
1-4%
Event may occur only in exceptional circumstances
Unlikely
5-19%
Event could occur at some time
There is little opportunity, reason or means to occur
Possible
20-24%
Event might occur
There is some opportunity, reason or means to occur
Likely
50-79%
The event is likely to occur in most circumstances There is considerable opportunity, reason or means for the event to occur
Almost Certain
80-100%
Event is expected to occur in most circumstances
There is great opportunity, reason or means to occur
Under the worst case climate, storages could
reach this level.
Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
What the storage levels are forecast to be depending on the climate:
What the storage levels actually were over the past two years.
0%
Greater Geelong system System summary Geelong’s drinking water is supplied by catchments on the upper Barwon and Moorabool rivers. During drought
Barwon Water also has an entitlement to take water from Melbourne’s Yarra Thomson catchment, as well as access
to groundwater. We operate two Class A recycled water plants - the Northern Water Plant and the Black Rock Recycled Water Plant.
Climate outlook The Bureau of Meteorology forecast (issued on 15th Nov 2018) indicates that rainfall totals in our region are expected to be average for the next three months.
Storage outlook The short term storage outlook shows that even under the
worst climatic conditions water restrictions will not be necessary in the next two years, to November 2020.
0
10,000
20,000
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Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
Stor
age
volu
me
(ML)
Median climate
Dry climate
Worst climate
Restriction range
Actual storage
Water resources position: Current local storage (23/11/18):
56,746 ML out of 95,629 ML (59%)
Current Melbourne storage (01/11/18):
45,151 ML Estimated annual entitlement:
103,392 ML System yield: 53,480 ML
Population: 294,208 2017/18 bulk demand: 32,815 ML
Water restriction likelihood:
Very rare (<1%)
Restrictions would be required only in extraordinary circumstances.
Stor
age
perc
ent f
ull
Colac system
System summary
Colac’s drinking water is supplied from the West Gellibrand
and Olangolah reservoirs, on the Gellibrand River in the Otway Ranges. During drought, Colac’s water supply can
be supplemented with water from the Geelong water supply system via a recently completed pipeline.
Climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast (issued on 15th Nov 2018) indicates that rainfall totals in our region are expected to be average for the next three months.
Storage outlook
The short term storage outlook shows that even under the
worst climatic conditions water restrictions will not be necessary in the next two years, to November 2020.
0
500
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2,000
2,500
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50%
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100%
Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
Stor
age
volu
me
(ML)
Stor
age
perc
ent f
ull
Median climate
Dry climate
Worst climate
Restriction range
Actual storage
Water resources position: Population: 14,222
System yield: 4,600 ML
Full storage volume: 2,648 ML Current storage (23/11/18):
2,631 ML (99% full) Annual entitlement: 5,400 ML
2017/18 bulk demand: 2,969 ML
Water restriction likelihood:
Very rare (<1%)
Restrictions would be required only in
extraordinary circumstances.
Lorne System System summary The Lorne system is supplied from Allen Reservoir on the St George River. Water is fully treated at the Lorne
Water Treatment Plant before being supplied to customers.
Climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast (issued on 15th Nov 2018) indicates that rainfall totals in our region are expected to be average for the next three months.
Storage outlook
The short term storage outlook shows that even under
the worst climatic conditions water restrictions will not be necessary in the next two years, to November 2020.
0
50
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200
0%
10%
20%
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50%
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Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
Stor
age
volu
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(ML)
Stor
age
perc
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ull
Dry climate
Worst climate
Restriction range
Actual storage
Water resources position: Population: 1,759
System Yield: 370 ML
Full Storage Volume: 215 ML Current storage (23/11/18): 215 ML
(100% full) Annual entitlement: 510 ML
2017/18 demand: 368 ML
Water restriction likelihood:
Very rare (<1%)
Restrictions would be required only in
extraordinary circumstances.
Median climate
Apollo Bay system System summary Barham River supplies water to Apollo Bay, Marengo and Skenes Creek. Water is pumped to the Marengo
Basin (125ML) and the Apollo Bay Basin (250ML) and is fully treated before being supplied to customers.
Climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast (issued on 15th Nov 2018) indicates that rainfall totals in our region are expected to be average for the next three months.
Storage outlook
The short term storage outlook shows that under
median or dry climatic conditions water restrictions will not be necessary in the next two years, to November
2020. However, under the worst case climate, water restrictions may need to be applied in summer 2020.
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250
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Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020
Stor
age
volu
me
(ML)
Stor
age
perc
ent f
ull
Median climate
Dry climate
Worst climate
Restriction range
Actual storage
Water resources position: Population: 1974
System Yield: 408 ML
Full Storage Volume: 375 ML Current storage (23/11/18):
351 ML (93% full) Annual entitlement: 800 ML
2017/18 demand: 437 ML
Water restriction likelihood:
Rare (1% - 4%)
Restrictions would be required only in
exceptional circumstances.
Gellibrand system
System summary
Gellibrand is located approximately 25 km south of
Colac and supplies less than 100 properties. The Gellibrand system is supplied from Lardners Creek.
Water is pumped from the creek to the Gellibrand Water Treatment Plant prior to being gravity fed to the water distribution network.
Climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology forecast (issued on 15th
Nov 2018) indicates that rainfall totals in our region are expected to be average for the next three months.
Storage outlook
The short term storage outlook shows that even under the worst climatic conditions, water restrictions will not be necessary in the next two years, to November 2020.
0
1
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100
1000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Ave
rage
ava
ilabl
e w
ater
and
dem
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on a
loga
rithm
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scal
e [M
L/m
th]
Lowest riverflow
Average riverflow
Highest demand
Average demand
Average available supply
Water resources position: Population: 71
System Yield: 60ML
Annual entitlement: 60 ML 2017/18 demand: 18 ML
Water restriction likelihood:
Very rare (<1%)
Restrictions would be required only in extraordinary circumstances.
Five-year action plan Geelong five-year action plan
Action Timing Status We will work with the community, government and other stakeholders to renew our Barwon Downs groundwater licence by 2019 developed in consideration of an improved understanding of the environmental and social impacts of the borefield operation.
2019 In progress
We will engage and explore opportunities with Traditional Owners to recognise and include Aboriginal values in water resource management.
Ongoing In progress
We will investigate the opportunity to further optimise the way we use water sources in the Geelong water supply system by developing a decision-making framework to guide operation.
2018 Deferred
We will develop, implement and monitor water efficiency programs like the ‘Target Your Water Use’ and the ‘Schools Water Efficiency Program’.
Ongoing Ongoing
Colac five-year action plan Action Timing Status We will optimise operating rules and triggers for when we should transfer water from the Barwon system to Colac.
2018 Early
stages We will continue to deliver the Colac Demand Management Strategy and commission the new pipeline connecting Colac to the Geelong system.
2018 Complete
We will develop, implement and monitor water efficiency programs like the ‘Target Your Water Use’.
Ongoing Ongoing
Lorne five-year action plan Action Timing Status We will engage with the community and Traditional Owners to review options and identify a preferred approach by 2022 to ensure water supply security for the long term.
2022 Not
started We will commence early planning works for the preferred approach to maintain water security in the long term.
2022+ Not
started We will develop, implement and monitor water efficiency programs like the ‘Target Your Water Use’.
Ongoing Ongoing
We will undertake research and development that contributes to ongoing innovation in water efficiency measures.
Ongoing Ongoing
Apollo Bay five-year action plan Action Timing Status
We will engage with the community and Traditional Owners to review options and identify a preferred approach by 2022 to ensure water supply security for the long term.
2022 Early
stages We will commence early planning works for the preferred approach to maintain water security in the long term.
2022 Early
stages We will develop, implement and monitor water efficiency programs like the ‘Target Your Water Use’.
Ongoing Ongoing
We will undertake research and development that contributes to ongoing innovation in water efficiency measures.
Ongoing Ongoing
Gellibrand five-year action plan
Beyond our ongoing operational processes to monitor conditions and maintain supplies, there are no specific actions for the Gellibrand water supply system.
barwonwater.vic.gov.au
55-67 Ryrie StreetPO Box 659Geelong Victoria 3220
1300 656 007 | [email protected]