American Statistical Association

1993

Proceedings

of the

Social Statistics Section

Papers presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical

Association, San Francisco, California, August 8-12,1993, and the

ASA Winter Conference, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, January 3-5,1993,under the sponsorship of the Social Statistics Section

American Statistical Association 1429 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314

UB/T1B Hannover 89113 195 SOX

Table of Contents

Invited Papers by Topic

I. What Do We Know About the Rich?

Chair/Organizer: Roberton Williams, Congressional Budget Office

The Quality of Census Bureau Survey Data Among Respondents with High Incomes.

Charles T. Nelson, U.S. Bureau of the Census 1

Estimating the Size and Distribution of Baby Boomers' Prospective Inheritances.

Robert B. Avery and Michael S. Rendall, Cornell University 11

Contributed Papers by TopicI. Case Studies in the Methodology of Social Statistics

Chair: Mark Lino, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Unobservable Heterogeneity and Weibull Regression: A Simulation Study. JR. Feaganes,University of North Carolina 20

The Effect of the Number of Response Categories on the Fixed Effects Analysis of Variance

and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. R. J. Gebotys, Wilfred Laurier University 26

Modeling Demographic Catastrophes. Parameswara Krishnan, University of Alberta 32

II. Microsimulation Modeling of Health Policy Alternatives

Organizer: Constance F. Citro, National Academy of Sciences

Chair: JackRodgers, Price Waterhouse

Microsimulation and Health Care Reform. Pat Doyle, Agency for Health Care Policy andResearch 35

Microsimulation and Health Policy. Michael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada and Canadian

Institute for Advanced Research 40

Gainers and Losers Under a Tax-Based Health Care Reform Plan. John F. Moeller and

Jonathan W. Witter, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research 48

Modeling the Baseline Distribution of Health Services Spending and Payment.B.K. Atrostic and Linda Bilheimer, Congressional Budget Office 54

III. Immigrants and Migrants within the United States

Chair: Jeffrey S. Passel, The Urban Institute

Residential Segregation of Asians and Hispanics in 1990. Peter Lobo, Universityof Michigan 60

in

Evaluating the Passel-Word Spanish Surname List. R. Colby Perkins, U.S. Bureau

of the Census 65

IV. Research on Teachers, Schools and Education Reform Using the

Schools and Staffing SurveysChair/Organizer: Michael Podgursky, University of Massachusetts

Who Decides? Principals' and Teachers' Views on Decision-Making. Judith I. Anderson,U.S. Department of Education 71

Implicit Markets for Teacher Quality and School Attributes. Dale Ballou and

Michael Podgursky, University of Massachusetts 77

Determinants of Pupil/Teacher Ratios at School Sites: Evidence from the Schools and

Staffing Survey. Lawrence O. Picas and Minaz Bhimani, University of Southern California 82

V. Income, Net Worth, and Jobs: Examining Panel Data

Chair: Edith K. McArthur, National Center for Education Statistics

1986 Tax Reform and Changes in the Distribution and Composition of Income.

Cathleen M. Koch, Joint Committee on Taxation 89

Race and Labor Force Instability. Sheri Hsueh and Marta Tienda, University of Chicago 95

Sources of the Unemployment Differences Between the 1990 Census and the Current

Population Survey (CPS). Thomas Palumbo, U.S. Bureau of the Census 101

Measuring Rates of Labor Force Dynamics. Howard N. Fullerton, Jr., U.S. Bureau of

Labor Statistics 106

VI. Roundtable Discussion Groups

Multiplying Women in Mathematics: Interventions, Incentives, and Resources. Grace E.

Kissling, University of North Carolina; Susan C. Hostetter, U.S. Congressional Internal

Revenue Service; Kaydion K. Riley, Woodrow Wilson High School 112

Statistical Thinking Can Enhance Cuban Human Rights Assessments. Jorge Luis Romeu,

State College at Cortland 118

VII. Evaluating Population Estimates Using the 1990 Census

Chair: Signe I. Wetrogan, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Evaluation of 1990 Population Estimates and the Future of the Census Bureau

Subnational Estimates Program. Michael J. Batutis, U.S. Bureau of the Census 123

Evaluation of Postcensal County Estimates for the 1980s. Sam T. Davis, U.S. Bureau

of the Census 131

IV

VHI. Educational Attainment: Determinants and ImpactsChair: Daniel Kasprzyk, National Center for Education Statistics

Characteristics of Children Who Are "Behind" in School. Edith K. McArthur,National Center for Education Statistics; Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census 137

Predicting Next Year's Enrollment: Survival Analysis of University Student Enrollment

Histories. Richard M. Heiberger, Temple University 143

Age, Period and Cohort Effects on Educational Attainment: A Comparison of Two

Industrialized Populations. Helena M. Boubnova, Russian Academy of Science;W. WardKingkade, U.S. Bureau of the Census 149

IX. Measuring Health Status: Survey-Based ApproachesChair/Organizer: Michael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada

Linking Survey and Administrative Data to Study Determinants of Health. Pierre David

and Jean-Marie Berthelot, Statistics Canada; Cameron Mustard, University of Manitoba 155

A Multi-Attribute Approach to Population Health Status. David H. Feeny,George W. Torrance, Charles H. Goldsmith, William Furlong and Michael Boyle,McMaster University 161

The Development of Canada's National Population Health Survey. Gary Catlin and

Robert Lussier, Statistics Canada 167

Health and Functioning Measures from the Health and Retirement Survey.F. Thomas Juster, University of Michigan; Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for

Health Statistics 171

X. Modeling and Projection with Socio-Demographic Data

Chair: Howard N. Fullerton Jr., U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Time Series Modelling Using Auxiliary Information with Application to the Postcensal

Estimation of Households. SusanaR. Bleuer, Statistics Canada 177

Multiple Capture Estimation of Numbers of Homeless. Mary-Lynn Brecht, University of

California, Los Angeles 183

Public Library Service Distribution: An Interstate Expenditure Analysis. Ben-ChiehLiu,

Chicago State University 189

An Apparent Invariance of the Size Distribution of Personal Income Conditioned on

Education. John Angle, Economic Research Service 197

XI. Analyzing Poverty and Welfare Program ParticipationChair: Sharon K. Long, The Urban Institute

A Geographical Analysis of Poverty: 1980 and 1990. Teresa J. Eller, U.S. Bureau

of the Census 203

Race, Class and Poverty Polarization of US Metro Areas and States: Findings from

the 1990 Census. William H. Frey, The University of Michigan 208

Exits From Poverty: A Proportional Hazards Model from the SIPP. Kathleen Short and

Martina Shea, U.S. Bureau of the Census 214

Modeling Food Stamp Participation Reported with Error. Christopher R. Bollinger,

Georgia State; Martin H. David, University of Wisconsin 220

XII. Health and Fertility in Specific Communities: Case Studies

Chair: Reynolds Farley, University of Michigan

Health-Related Attitudes and Behaviors of a Working Class Neighborhood in an Urban

Ohio Community. Yuhui Li, Rowan College of New Jersey; Gopal K. Singh, National

Center for Health Statistics 226

Race and Ethnic Differentials in Infant Health: Hawaii, 1983-87. Paula Gardner and

Gopal K. Singh, National Center for Health Statistics 232

Mother Love Through Mother's Milk: Can it Protect Against Pneumonia? GilbertNestel

and Kara Ricciuti, Ohio State University 238

Sex Preference and Third-Birth Intervals in a Traditional Indian Society. Dilip C. Nath

and Kenneth C. Land, Duke University 244

Pre-United Germany Family Life Cycle and Fertility Profile: 1947 - 88.

M. Nabil El-Khorazaty, Rockville, Maryland 250

XIII. Evaluating Data on Health, Disability, and OccupationChair: Michele C. Adler, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

A New National Source of Health and Mortality Information in the United States.

John W. Horm and Robert A. Wright, National Center for Health Statistics 256

Evaluation of an Automated Multiple Cause of Death Coding System. Kenneth W. Harris,

Harry M. Rosenberg, Kenneth D. Kochanek, Ronald F. Chamblee, and Donna E. Glenn,

National Center for Health Statistics 262

The Reliability of Self-Assessments Versus Clinical Measures of Mental Health. Elizabeth

Savoca, Smith College 266

A Comparative Analysis of Data on Persons with a Work Disability: Data from the

Decennial Census, CPS, and SIPP. Robert L. Bennefield, U.S. Bureau of the Census 272

XIV. Statistical Methods II

Chair: Lewis H. Shoemaker, Millersville University

Quality of Life Indicators (QOL) for Policy Decision Management. Ben-Chieh Liu and

George Foster, Chicago State University; Chang-Tzeh Hsieh, University of Mississippi;Milton W. Liu 277

VI

XV. Methodological Issues in Social Statistics: Modeling Complex Data

and SystemsChair: RobertA. Kominski, U.S. Bureau of the Census

The Strip-Plot Experimental Design and Model. Ellen J. Mohr and John M. Irvine, EREM 284

On Nonlinear Factor Analysis. Yasuo Amemiya, Iowa State University 290

XVI. Crime, Addiction and Substance Abuse: Statistical AnalysesChair: Harry M. Rosenberg, National Center for Health Statistics

White Collar Prosecution -1960 to 1990. Chaiho C. Wang, U.S. Department of Justice 295

A Reconviction Study for Offenders Supervised in the Community.Christopher David Kershaw, Home Office, U.K. 301

Relapse to Narcotics Addiction: An Event-History Analysis of Intervention Effects.

Yih-Ing Hser, University of California, Los Angeles; Kazuo Yamaguchi, Universityof Chicago 306

Risk Factors for Substance Abuse Among the Chronic Mentally 111. A. H. Reed and E. P.

Schoener, Wayne State University; A. M. Walters, University of Michigan 312

Maternal Substance Abuse and Increased Risk of Preterm Birth: Evidence from the 1988

National Maternal and Infant Health Survey. Gopal K. Singh, Stella M. Yu and Harry M.

Rosenberg, National Center for Health Statistics 317

Contributed Papers - Poster Sessions

Can Survey Data Be Used to Estimate Physician Practice Costs? Marc L. Berk and

Curt Mueller, Project HOPE; Sara Thran, American Medical Association 324

Drinking Patterns, Occupation, and Motor Vehicle Accidents Deaths. Hsiang-Ching Kungand Jessica Chan, National Center for Health Statistics 331

Effect of Recall Period on Measuring Poverty and Race Differentials in PhysicianUtilization. Diane M. Makuc and Jacob J. Feldman, National Center for Health

Statistics 337

Decomposition of Changes in Life Expectancy: United States, 1984-89.

Kenneth D. Kochanek, Jeffrey D. Maurer and Harry M. Rosenberg, National Center

for Health Statistics 343

Is that Strawberry Safe to Eat? Terry Tomazic and Barry Katz, Saint Louis University 350

Questions About Race, Spanish Origin and Ancestry: Findings from the Census of 1990

and Proposals for the Census of 2000. Reynolds Farley, The University of Michigan 356

Data Categorization, Noncircularity, and Type I Error Rates in Repeated Measures

ANOVA Designs. Han Joo Eom and Robert W. Schutz, University of British Columbia 362

vu

Preliminary Analysis of Multiple Group Structural Equation Modeling Via Cluster

Analysis. Wai-Yin Poon, Wai Chan, Sik-Yum Lee and Kwok Leung, The Chinese Universityof Hong Kong 368

A Modification of Two Stage Least Squares in Quasi-Experiments. Alex Exuzides and

Raymond C. Peck, California Department of Motor Vehicles 374

Papers Presented at the

1993 ASA Winter Conference

January 3-5,1993Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Invited Papers by Topic

I. Family Income Inequality: Where Has the Middle Class Gone?

Organizer: Patricia Ruggles, The Urban Institute

Chair: Chad Stone, Joint Economic Committee

A Decade of Low Pay: Minimum Wage Workers in the 1980s. Bruce W. Klein, Food

and Nutrition Service; William E. Spriggs, Economic Policy Institute 380

II. Assessing Children's Development and Well-Being in Household

Surveys: New Methods, New FindingsChair/Organizer: Nicholas Zill, Child Trends, Inc.

Parent Reports on Children's Academic Progress and School Adjustment in the National

Household Education Survey. Mary A. Collins and J. Michael Brick, Westat, Inc. 390

Determining Childhood Disability and Special Needs Children in the 1994-95 NHIS

Survey on Disability. Gloria Simpson, National Center for Health Statistics 396

III. Where does the Time Go: Research Issues and FindingsChair/Organizer: Martha Farnsworth Riche, Population Reference

Bureau, Inc.

Trends in Time Spent Caring for Children: 1924-31 vs 1981. W. Keith Bryant, Cornell

University; Cathleen D. Zick, University of Utah 401

Work Schedules and Time with Children. Elizabeth Thomson, University of

Wisconsin-Madison 410

IV. Family Size and Family Needs: An Examination of Equivalence Scales

Organizer: Thesia I. Garner, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chair: Patrica Ruggles, The Urban Institute

The Estimation of Unique Equivalence Scales. David S. Johnson and Thesia I. Garner,

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 420

Is There Bias in Computing Household Equivalence Scales? M. Luisa Ferreira, The

World Bank; Reuben C. Buse, University of Wisconsin-Madison 428

VIII

The Role of Equivalence Scales in Canadian Public Policy. Brian B. Murphy andMichael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada 438

Discussant's Remarks. Denton Vaughan, U.S. Social Security Administration 448

V. Investing in Children: Policy Challenges of the 1990s

Organizer: Stephanie Shipp, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chair: Edward Anthony, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Estimating Expenditures on Children: Methodologies and Implications. Mark Lino, U.S.

Department of Agriculture 451

Intergenerational Determinants of the Education Level of Young Adults: Who Finishes

High School and Who Goes Beyond? Robert Haveman and Barbara Wolfe, University ofWisconsin-Madison 456

VI. How are Children Supported?Organizer: Patricia Ruggles, The Urban Institute

Chair: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census

America's Children: Resources from Family, Government, and the Economy.Donald J. Hernandez, U.S. Bureau of the Census 466

VII. Does Context Matter? Child Development, Schooling, andMate Selection.

Organizer: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Chair: Larry Bumpass, University of Wisconsin

Do Neighborhoods Influence Child and Adolescent Development? Jeanne Brooks-Gunn

and Pamela Koto Klebanov, Educational Testing Service and Columbia University;

Greg J. Duncan and Naomi Sealand, University of Michigan 475

Marriage Markets and Marital Behavior Among Low-Income Women.

Diane K. McLaughlin and Daniel T. Lichter, The Pennsylvania State University 484

VIII. New Methods for Collecting and Understanding Data

Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health Statistics

Chair: Randall Olsen, Ohio State University

Observations of New Technology and Family Dynamics in a Survey of Youth. Donald

Camburn, Abt Associates, Inc.; Marcie L. Cynamon, National Center for Health Statistics 494

Estimating the National Prevalence of Child Abuse from Sentinel Data. Andrea J. Sedlak,

Westat, Inc. 503

Systematic Review as an Aid in Policy Research: An Example for the Juvenile

Delinquency Literature. John S. Lyons, Rachel L. Anderson and Julene Stellato,

Northwestern University Medical School; David B. Larson, National Institutes of Health 513

IX

IX. How Are Families and Children Defined in Surveys and Legislation?

Chair/Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health Statistics

What is a Child? Lorraine V. Klerman, University of Alabama at Birmingham 522

Family Definitions in Programs and Policy. Michele Adler, U.S. Department of Health

and Human Services 528

X. Measuring Educational Output

Organizer: Sharon Bobbin, National Center for Education Statistics

Chair: Greg J. Duncan, University of Michigan

National Education Goals: Are They Sufficient? A View from Industry. Mary Ann Ritter,

General Motors Corporation 538

XI. Measuring Poverty: Needs, Resources, and DynamicsChair/Organizer: Timothy M. Smeeding, Syracuse University

Measurement of Need: The U.S. Poverty Line. Daniel H. Weinberg and Enrique J. Lamas,U.S. Bureau of the Census 542

Some Experimental Results on Alternate Poverty Measures. Daniel H. Weinberg and

Enrique J. Lamas, U.S. Bureau of the Census 549

XII. Confidentiality and Data Access-A Contradiction in Terms?

Organizer: Nancy J. Kirkendall, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Chair: Virginia de Wolf, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

How Government Agencies Simultaneously Protect and Disseminate Data.

Nancy J. Kirkendall, U.S. Energy Information Administration 556

XIII. Children's Learning Experience: Home and School

Organizer: Jerry West, National Center for Education Statistics

Chair: Paul Planchon, National Center for Education Statistics

Learning Programs at Home: An Explanation of the High Academic Achievement of

Asian American Students. Samuel S. Peng and DeeAnn Wright, National Center for

Education Statistics 566

XIV. Alternative Concepts of PovertyChair/Organizer: Constance F. Citro, National Academy of Sciences

Budget-Based Poverty Measurement: 1992 Basic Needs Budgets. Trudi Renwick, Public

Utility Law Project of New York, Inc. 573

XV. International Measurement of Education: Implications for Policies

About Children and Schools

Chair/Organizer: David P. Baker, Catholic University of America

Measuring Student Achievement Around the Globe. William Loxley, International

Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement 583

X

XVI. Assessing Children's Health

Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health StatisticsChair: Manning Feinleib, National Center for Health Statistics

Use of Health Care Event Data for Examining Children's Health. Catharine W. Burt,National Center for Health Statistics 592

XVII. Housing and Homelessness Among Families with Children

Chair/Organizer: Kathryn P. Nelson, U.S. Department of Housing and

Urban Development

Housing Problems and Needs Among Families with Children. Kathryn P. Nelson, U.S.

Department of Housing and Urban Development 598

New Data on Homeless Families: A Review. Martha R. Burt, Lori R. Schack, and

Shannon E. Cavanagh, The Urban Institute 608

XVIII. Caregiving Across the Lifespan: Research Findings and

Methodological Considerations

Chair/Organizer: Robyn Stone, Project Hope

Caregiving Across the Lifespan: A New National Profile. Nadine F. Marks, University ofWisconsin-Madison 614

XIX. Gender Differences in Market Work and the Care and Support of

Families

Organizer: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Chair: Harriet Presser, University of Maryland

Changes in the Labor Force Role of Married Mothers. Howard V. Hayghe, U.S. Bureau

of Labor Statistics; Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census 623

XX. Methodological, Analysis, and Reporting Issues in the U.S. Data for the

IEA Reading Literacy StudyChair/Organizer: Marilyn Binkley, National Center for Education Statistics

Issues in Sampling for International Comparative Studies in Education: The Case of

the IEA Reading Literacy Study. Keith Rust, Westat, Inc. 627

Handling Item Nonresponse in the U.S. Component of the IEA Reading Literacy Study.Marianne Winglee, Graham Kalton and Keith Rust, Westat, Inc.; Daniel Kasprzyk,National Center for Education Statistics 637

Hierarchical Models: The Case of School Effects on Literacy. Stephen W. Raudenbush,

Michigan State University 646

Contributed Papers By Topic

I. Child Care: Needs, Costs, and Health Surveillance

Chair: Steven L. Solomon, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

XI

Modeling the Cost of Child Care. Arilee M. Bagley and Karl W. Heiner, State Universityof New York at New Paltz 654

Surveillance in Child Day Care: The San Diego and Seattle Projects. Ralph L. Cordell,James E. Cheek, Janice Boose, and Stephen Waterman, U.S. Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention 660

II. Statistical Methods in Biomedical ApplicationsChair: HowardJ. Hoffman, National Institutes of Health

Time from HIV-1 Infection to AIDS Using a Markov Model. Susan Y.J. Zhou,Lawrence A. Kingsley, Sheila S.H. Leung, Eunyoung Choi Lee, and Charles R. Rinaldo,

University of Pittsburgh; Jeremy M.G. Taylor, University of California at Los Angeles;Joan S. Chmiel, Northwestern University; Alfred J. Saah and Donald R. Hoover,The Johns Hopkins University 664

Tests for Equality of Several Proportions and Model Selection for One-Dimensional

Multinomials. Broderick Oluyede, Geogia State University 671

Nonparametric Approach to Risk Assessment of Environmental Agents Involving TwoTypes of Tumors. W. Y. Tan, Memphis State University 677

Prognostic Factors in Intracranial Neoplasms. Jimmy Efird, Francisco Pardo, Dora Hsu,Paul Okunieff, William Daly, and Tessa Hedley-Whyte, Massachusetts General Hospital,Harvard Medical School 683

in. Analyzing Survey Data for Insights into Children's Health

Chair: Owen Thornberry, National Center for Health Statistics

Health Outcomes of Hunger in Children: Combined Results from Nine CCHIP Surveys.Jennifer Anderson, Boston University; Cheryl Wehler, Community Childhood HungerIdentification Project 689

A Socio-Cultural Analysis of the Home Environment. Daniel J. Mundfrom,Robert H. Bradley, and Leanne Whiteside, University of Arkansas at Little Rock 695

IV. Design and Methods in Biometric ApplicationsChair: Earl S. Pollack, George Washington University

On the Accuracy of the Subject Years Method in Mortality Analysis with Censored Data.

Alan J. Gross and Dongsheng Tu, Medical University of South Carolina 701

V. Family Characteristics and Child DevelopmentChair: Harry L. Nagel, St. John's University

Gender Differences in Parent-Child Relationships. Marjorie E. Stands, Universityof Michigan 707

Religious Socialization of Children of Interfaith Couples: The Role of Parents'

Background Differences - A Case Study of Jews Married to Non-Jews. Ariela Keysar,

Egon Mayer, and Barry A. Kosmin, City University of New York 714

XII

An Analysis of the Effect of Mother's Working Status on the Development of Pre-School

Children. Effat Moussa, DePaul University; Mohammed El-Saidi, Ferris State University;Mavis Barkley, Edison School 721

A Markov Model for Mother-Infant Interaction. David C. Flaspohler and

Cynthia L. Crown, Xavier University 727

Significant Others of Young Children. B.A. Bailey and LL. Hoffman, University of

Central Florida; S.K. Streeter, East Montana College 729

VI. Applications of Survival Analysis and Empirical Bayes Procedures to

Large National SurveysChair: Enrique J. Lamas, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Sensitivity ofEstimates for Duration of Welfare Spells in the SIPP. David P. Miller,

Cleveland Clinic Foundation 735

VII. Approaches to Improving Data AnalysisChair: Stephanie Shipp, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Distributions and Transformations for Family Expenditures. Stuart Scott and

Daniel J. Rope, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 741

An Evalutaion of the Effectiveness of a Small Area Census Using Area and TelephoneFrames. Charles D. Palit and Jane A. Campbell, University of Wisconsin 747

Vffl. The Changing Face of the FamilyChair: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Divorcing Parents. Barbara Foley Wilson, National Center for Health Statistics 752

When Disagreements Lead to Violence in Marriage. AlfredDeMaris, Bowling Green

State University 756

International Comparisons of the Family. Constance Sorrentino, U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics 761

Determinants of Women's Return to Paid Work After Childbirth. Jutta M. Joesch,

University of Utah 767

IX. Analysis of Family-Level Data in a National Panel Survey, the 1987

National Medical Expenditure SurveyChair: Steven B. Cohen, U.S. Agency for Health Care Policy and Research

Family Constructs and Dynamics: The Survey of American Indians and Alaska Natives,

NMES, 1987. Ayah E. Johnson and Barbara Lepidus Carlson, U.S. Agency for Health

Care Policy and Research 773

Discussion of Session on Analysis of Family Level Data in a National Panel Survey:

The 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Steven B. Cohen, U.S. Agency for

Health Care Policy and Research 779

XM

X. Determinants of Education Performance

Chair: Yahia Z. Ahmed, U.S. Internal Revenue Service

The Positive/Negative Effect of the Family Size on High School Performance.

Harry L. Nagel, St. John's University 783

The Effect of Age, Sex, Socioeconomic Status, and Kindergarten Screening Scores on

Reading Achievement. Jane M. Flynn, Gundersen Medical Foundation;Mohammad H. Rahbar, University of Wisconsin-LaCrosse 785

XI. New Developments in Statistical Methods

Chair: Charles D. Palit, University of Wisconsin

An Extension of the Vital Statistics Method to Derive Survival Rates. Balkrishna Kale

and John Besl, Wisconsin Department of Administration; Charles Palit and Paul Voss,

University of Wisconsin-Madison; Frederick Krantz and Henry Krebs, Wisconsin

Department of Health and Social Services 791

On an Intergrated Selection Approach for Comparing Experimental Categories with a

Control. Lifang Hsu, Le Moyne College 797

A Bayesian Analog to Fabian's Bound. Ping Sa, University of North Florida;Don Edwards, University of South Carolina 801

Bayesian Analysis of Bilinear Time Series. Cathy W.S. Chen, Feng-Chia University 807

XII. Research into Programs for Families and Children: Issues and

FindingsChair: Roberta McKay, U.S. Department of Labor

Multicollinearity in Family Research: Childrearing Families Affected by Poverty and

Disability. Bette Keltner and Michael Hardin, University of Alabama at Birmingham 811

Initial Outcomes of Intensive Case Managment for Children with Serious Emotional

Disturbance. Steven M. Banks and Mary E. Evans, New York State Office of Mental

Health 816

Child Support Collection Goals. Karl W. Heiner, State University ofNew York at New

Paltz 821

Xin. Work and the Family: Income, Hours, and SpendingChair: Howard V. Hayghe, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

A Look at Private Health Insurance Coverage of Families with Children under 18 UsingData from the Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey for 1989-91. Elizabeth M. Reise,U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 827

Predicting Family Work Hours with Neural Networks. David M. Brennan and

Lawrence C. Marsh, University of Notre Dame 833

xiv

XIV. Questionnaire Protocols, Respondent Differences, and the Effects of

Sample Design on Estimates

Chair: Clyde Tucker, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Estimating the Effect of Alcohol Use on Productivity. R. R. Bryant and

V.A. Samaranayake, University of Missouri-Rolla; A.W. Wilhite, University of Alabama 839

XV. Collecting and Modeling Data on Children

Chair: Jeffrey S. Passel, The Urban Institute

A National Study of Runaway and Homeless Youth. Ronaldo lachan and Chris Ringwalt,Research Triangle Institute 845

Using Statistical Models to Estimate the Size of a Homeless Population. Neil W. Henry,Virginia Commonwealth University 850

Stages of Consumer Socialization in Childhood. James U. McNeal, Texas A&M

University; Chyon-Hwa Yeh, The Procter & Gamble Company 856

Contributed Papers-Poster Sessions

Sarcoidosis: Data to Unravel the Mystery. S. Conroy, National Sarcoidosis Resource

Center, DR. Bristol, Schering-Plough Research Institute 861

Linking the Robert Wood Johnson Access Survey with the National Health Interview

Survey. Marc L. Berk, Project HOPE; P. Ellen Parsons, National Center for Health

Statistics 867

Biasing Effects in Ratings Scales: Differences Between Putative Synonyms for

Occupations. Simcha Pollack, St. John's University; Hershey H. Friedman, Brooklyn

College of the City University of New York 872

Index 875

XV