Annual growth projected to slow in 2011 back” phase, and...

Developing Trends: January 2011

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) with colleagues from PRMTR and IFC (Risk/

Economics). The team is comprised of Mick Riordan (OECD, currencies), Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Mariem Malouche, Stacey Chow and

Mohini Datt (trade), Shane Streifel (commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Allen Dennis (IP) and Sabah Mirza (Annex). The report was

prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns of DECPG. This edition of the report has been truncated due to work efforts related to the

release of GEP-2011. The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

The just-released Global Economic Prospects report highlights a moderate slowing of world GDP growth in 2011 (3.3%) following the strong rebound of 2010 (3.9%) which was lead in the main by 7% gains in developing countries. The recovery has passed through a “bounce-back” phase, and is moving toward a slower- but more sustainable phase of growth. Activity in most developing countries has—or is close to having—recovered. But for many high-income- and developing ECA economies, growth has been modest despite two years of aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus; unemployment remains high and GDP is being held back by necessary post-crisis restructuring. Overall global GDP growth is expected to register 3.6% in 2012 as the drag on activity from restructuring in high-income countries eases.

Short term risks for developing countries fall into three groups. An escalation of the European sov-ereign debt crisis could affect economies in ECA, LAC and MENA more directly, those with closest trade and financial ties with Euro Area countries in financial stress. So far, these exposures have not carried negative effects, and indeed, recent developments suggest that tensions in Euro Area financial markets have eased, given positive outturns for bond sales from several countries and EC plans for establishment of longer-term facilities to cover potential financing needs. But the situation remains quite fluid. Contin-ued low interest rates across the OECD, and large, volatile capital flows to developing countries associ-ated in part with these, could generate further destabilizing movements in asset prices, exchange rates and commodity prices. And, additional disappointing agricultural crop news, or an escalation in energy prices, could cause real food prices in developing countries to rise significantly, potentially generating acute affordability issues in poor countries and intensifying poverty impacts.

Recent developments highlight a step-up in economic activity in the United States and lifting of growth expectations for 2011 to more-than 3%, grounded in the December 2010 agreement to extend the “Bush” tax cuts, offer payroll tax rebates and investment tax credits for 2011. U.S. year-end perform-ance was strong, with retail sales reaching 15% gains (saar) in the fourth quarter, on the back of improving labour market conditions. Growth in Europe and Japan appears more muted for the final quarter 2010 and into 2011, with a return to sluggish household spending and emerging (Germany) or continuing (Japan) export woes placing a damper on overall growth. Developing countries, led by China have seen industrial production return to growth in November, following decline during the third quarter.

Capital flows fell in December mainly due to a sharp decline in bond issuance. But total flows for 2010 are well above 2009’s level, with bond volumes reaching record highs. European risk aversion appears to be fading once more. And emerging financial markets appear fairly robust at the start of 2011.

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Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

Greece Ireland

Portugal Spain

EM (right axis)*

European risk aversion appears to be fading out once again5-year sovereign credit-default swaps, basis points (bps)

* Excluding high-risk countries: Argentina, Pakistan, Venezuela, and Ukraine

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

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2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

World High-income

Middle-income Low-income

Annual growth projected to slow in 2011Real GDP growth rates in percent

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group, Global Economic Prospects

January 20, 2011 page 2


Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2009 2010e 2011f 2012f

GDP volume: World -2.2 3.9 3.3 3.6 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights -0.8 4.8 4.1 4.4 High-income countries -3.4 2.8 2.4 2.7 Developing countries 2.0 7.0 6.0 6.1 Industrial production: World -8.2 9.3 ... ... High-income countries -12.3 8.0 ... ... Developing countries 1.4 11.3 ... ...

Export volume (GNFS): World -11.0 15.7 8.3 9.6 High-income countries -11.6 14.1 8.0 9.2 Developing countries -9.5 20.0 9.1 10.6 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) -4.2 0.7 -0.1 -4.3 Oil ($/bbl) 61.8 79.0 85.0 80.4

Non-oil commodities -21.6 26.6 25.2 -1.3

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 1.15 0.50 0.50 0.90

€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 1.52 1.00 0.80 1.10 Financial flows

FDI inflows ($billion) 354 410 486 590

Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 353 510 Equity placement ($bn) 109 188 Bond financing ($bn) 115 184 Bank lending ($bn) 129 139

Source: DECPG, January, 2011. Estimates and projections for 2010 through 2012 based on GEP-2011 released

on January 12, 2011.

Note: a Figures in bold represent changes this month.



For most developing countries, GDP regained levels that would have prevailed had there been no boom-bust cycle; strong growth is projected through 2012. The robust recovery in developing countries in 2010 was remarkable in that it mainly reflected an expansion of domestic demand, which contributed 45% to global growth in the year. Devel-oping countries are increasingly an important source of stability, with many of the risks to global growth centered in high-income countries, reflecting as yet unresolved imbalances generated by the boom. In contrast the recovery in several economies in emerg-ing Europe and Central Asia and in several high-income countries is less well established, and output remains below pre-crisis levels. High household debt and unemployment, weak housing and banking sec-tors are likely to mute recoveries—with continuing tensions tied to debt-sustainability issues in Europe.

Low policy-induced interest rates in OECD countries combined with better growth pros-pects in developing economies prompted a jump in capital flows to the latter group. Net international equity and bond flows to developing countries increased 42% and 30% respectively in 2010, with nine middle-income countries receiving the bulk of the flows. Short-term debt, equities and bonds (notably corporate bonds) posted strongest gains. Foreign direct investment to developing coun-tries increased a more modest 15% in 2010, reaching $410bn after falling 40% in 2009. Low-income coun-tries saw modest declines in capital flows in 2009 and moderate increases in 2010, partly reflecting their reliance on fairly stable FDI. But many low-income countries benefitted from stronger remit-tance flows, a recovery in tourism and higher com-modity prices. South-South flows are increasingly important for low income countries.

Should international commodity prices continue to rise, affordability issues and poverty impacts could intensify. Though real food prices in most developing countries have not increased as much as those measured in U.S. dollars, they have risen sharply in some poor countries. Indeed, there are some similarities with the food-price spike of 2008, which also coincided with strong developing country growth, high oil prices, and strong liquidity growth. Compared with the 2008 grain price shock, however, global commodity market conditions are not as se-vere. Grain production and stocks are larger now than in seasons prior to the 2007-08 price spike, and supply-demand conditions in the oil market are not as tight.

Highlights from GEP-2011

The latest GEP report, released mid-January, projects world GDP to ease to 3.3% in 2011 after a strong 3.9% rebound in 2010. Recovery in foreign capital flows supported the rebound in developing countries, but flows were highly concentrated. Double-digit increases in food prices are pressuring low-income households. Should prices continue to increase, a repeat of the conditions of the 2008 “food crisis” cannot be ruled out.

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06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010

Top 9 Europe & Central Asia (excluding Turkey)

Other Middle Low Income

Short-term Debt

Bank

Bond

Portfolio Equity

FDI

Decline and recovery in net capital flows was very concentrated

percent share of GDP

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group, Global Economic Prospects

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11E

Production (million tons)

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350

400

450

2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11E

Stocks (million tons)

Global grain markets tightened in 2010/11, but are well-supplied versus 2007/08

Sources: USDA (January 12, 2011 update) World Bank DEC Propsects



A wave of possible credit-rating downgrades had contributed to higher credit-default swap rates for the sovereign debt of several credit-stressed high-income European countries. An easing of pressures following Ireland’s bailout at end-November proved temporary, as CDS-rates began to rise once more from mid-December for Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, triggered by announcements of possible downgrades by major credit-rating agencies—and after Moody’s slashed Ireland’s debt by five levels (to Baa1 from Aa2) and Fitch downgraded Portugal. The rating agencies cited concerns about funding requirements and high borrowing costs. CDS spreads held steady or eased for developing countries. The 30-year, $1 billion peso-denominated bond sale by the Philippines and a similar large sale by Turkey (both at yields of about 6.25%) suggest that markets continue to evaluate developing country risks favorably.

The decline in growth of global industrial pro-duction may have bottomed out in 2010–Q3. Global industrial output dropped from an 8.7% an-nualized pace in 2010-Q2 to 1.2% in 2010-Q3 (saar), the slowest growth since the recovery took hold. The slowdown reflected the unwinding of “bounce-back” factors that had supported the rebound in activity (inventory restocking and positive base effects). Out-put now shows signs of picking up. Industrial produc-tion in China and Germany advanced, tied to firming domestic demand. Activity in Europe and Central Asia is also higher, led by Russia and Ukraine. And a 5.2% surge in German factory orders in November (m/m, sa, volume) on buoyant foreign demand—combined with strong holiday retail sales in the United States, Europe and Japan—suggest a widen-ing and broadening of the trend ahead.

In October 2010, merchandise export volumes in high-income countries had regained 98% of their August 2008 levels, up from 91.7% in January 2010. While the recovery is encouraging, trade vol-umes remain well below their pre-crisis peaks- and levels that might have been expected had trade con-tinued to grow at pre-crisis rates. High-income countries’ export volumes are at the same level as at the beginning of 2007, and still 10% below their pre-crisis peak of April 2008. In contrast, developing countries’ export volumes have exceeded their pre-crisis peak by 1.3% (October 2010). Compared with their pre-boom trend, high-income exports are 19% below what might have been expected sans crisis, while developing countries are 7% lower.

Highlights from GEP-2011

The cost of insuring against default continued to rise for debt in several Euro Area countries, after Portuguese and Irish debt were downgraded. In contrast, rates for developing countries eased or were broadly stable. Global IP growth appears to be rebounding once more. And while OECD merchandise export volumes reached 98% of their August 2008 levels in October 2010, they remain well below pre-crisis peaks.

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Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Greece BelgiumIreland LMICs with Median < 200Portugal LMICs with Median > 200Spain

CDS rates rise in Europe on possible credit rating downgrades; fall in developing world5-yr sovereign credit-default swap rates, basis points, Feb. 2010-Jan. 2011

Sources: Datastream and World Bank DEC Prospects Group

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30

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Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10

China Developing - excl. ChinaGermany High Income - excl. Germany

Sources: Thomson Datastream and DEC Prospects Group

Growth slowdown in industrial output appears to be bottoming out

3m/3m %-change, volumes, seasonally adjusted annualized rates

Trade has yet to recover pre-crisis trendLog of merchandise export volumes, 2005 dollars

10

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14

Jan-91 Jul-93 Jan-96 Jul-98 Jan-01 Jul-03 Jan-06 Jul-08 Jan-11

Developing countries

Sources: Datastream and World Bank DEC Prospects Group

High-income countries



Optimism grows for U.S. 2011 prospects. Fore-casts for U.S. GDP growth in 2011, prepared by economists participating with Consensus Economics Inc compendium of projections jumped from a mean of 2.4% in November to 3.2% in January 2011—a large two month shift by any standard. At the same time last minute forecasts for 2010 were revised up-ward to 2.9% in January readings. Principal among factors in the upgrade was the agreement between the Obama Administration and Congressional Re-publicans on extension of the “Bush” tax cuts for all income groups; additional stimulus in the form of payroll tax rebates, investment write-offs against current taxes, and smaller measures. The cost: the Federal fiscal deficit registered $1.6 trillion in FY-2010 (10.6% of GDP), and is likely to widen by 1.2 points of GDP in fiscal 2011 (OMB, preliminary).

Strong year-end performance. Momentum of U.S. economic activity—retail sales, manufacturing or-ders and production, export volumes—picked up into the fourth quarter, in line with continuing im-provements in labor markets and a recoup of a por-tion of earlier wealth loss, as the S&P-500 lofted 11.5% during the quarter (and another 5.5% in the first months of January 2011). Retail sales increased 0.7% in December (m/m), and with stronger gains in the extended holiday shopping season reached a 15% annualized pace in the fourth quarter (saar) contrasted with 3.4% for the third. Manufacturing output closed the year by rising 0.8% (m/m), and ISM’s survey advanced for a 17th month, increasing to 57 in December from 56.6 in November. Initial unemployment claims appear to be stabilizing below 450,000 and unemployment retreated to 9.4% in December from 9.8% in the preceding month on a moderate 130,000 gain in jobs.

U.S. imports ease from accentuated growth dur-ing the peak period of fiscal stimulus. Net ex-ports have subtracted about 2 points from expected U.S. GDP growth of 2.8% during 2010. This develop-ment went hand in hand with the ramp-up in fiscal and other stimulus measures, which served to boost domestic demand (4-5%, saar)—but also led to im-port growth in a 20% range during the first half of the year (saar). As stimulus measures have waned, and the dollar has weakened against many partner currencies, imports have shifted into decline (6.2%) as of November (saar). At the same time, exports, which lost a degree of vitality at mid-year, appear poised to accelerate once more, as demand in emerging markets remains strong and the dollar’s position favorable.

United States

Recent policy actions-, improvement in labor markets and consumer sentiment, and a clear pick-up in mo-mentum of economic activity at year end have served to boost economists’ estimates for U.S. GDP growth in 2011. Consensus Economics Inc shifted from a mean forecast of 2.4% for 2011 GDP growth to 3.2% over 2 months. Of note, net trade seems poised to add to growth in the near term as imports ease.

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1 /1 /2010 4 /1 /2010 7 /1 /2010 1 0 /1/2010 1 /1 /2011

U.S. retail (and equity markets) end year on strong footing

S&P-500 Retail Sales

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Thomson/Datastream

retail sales, ch% saar [L]

SP-500 idx [R]

2.3

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

Consensus forecast date:

Obama-GOP stimulus agreement lifts consensus view for U.S. growth in 2011

Forecast for 2010 Forecast for 2011

Source: Consensus Economics Inc.

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1/1/2009 6/1/2009 11/1/2009 4/1/2010 9/1/2010

Net exports looks to play stronger role in GDP growth for fourth quarter-2010

Export volumes Import volumes

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce .



European households retrenching at year end. An important element underpinning improved Euro Area growth in 2010, was the gradual emergence of strength in domestic demand, particularly consumer spending. Retail sales volumes peaked at 3.8% (y/y) in August, powered by strong gains in Germany and France (4%). But unlike the United States where re-tail turnover became more self-sustaining at the re-moval of major stimulus, German and Euro Area spending dropped substantially into November, with French spending falling to negative ground in De-cember. Of interest, despite the intensification of sovereign debt difficulties into year-end, consumer and business sentiment continued to increase. The slowdown in household spending will crimp fourth quarter growth, and with carryover- dampen the tenor of GDP gains in early 2011.

German export prospects uncertain. From a posi-tion of strength at mid-2010 (45% export volume gains in the second quarter supporting in part 25% increases in manufacturing production (saar)), Ger-man export orders and volumes have since dropped quickly toward zero as of October and November. The causes are many: sluggish growth in the Euro Area itself (Germany’s major market), falling demand among large clients in high-income and developing ECA, and a broader global compression of trade that is only now showing signs of improvement. With European growth hinging to a larger degree on ex-ternal performance (lackluster domestic develop-ments), substantial falloff in German trade is an un-favorable auger for 2011. But November factory or-ders data picked up sharply (5.2% m/m), the best since January 2010; and export orders jumped 8.2% reflecting stronger demand from Asia. Stay tuned!

No respite from Japan’s export woes. Japan’s out-sized GDP growth registered in 2010 (estimated at 4.4%—strongest since the mid-1960s) was driven to a large degree by an incentivized domestic con-sumer, with substantial government sponsored dis-counts applying to purchase of ’green’ transport and household technologies. Indeed, households ac-counted for 1.6 points of 4.7% GDP growth through the third quarter (saar), with net exports making a positive 1.8 point contribution. Recent data high-light a distinct softening in consumer spending into year-end, as well as a continuing slump in export volumes and manufacturing output (to decline of 12– and 14% respectively in November (saar). The combination of these factors points to a potential contraction in fourth quarter GDP (though Japan’s NIA figures can confound!), and a weak 2011 profile.

Euro Area and Japan

European markets have seen a recent respite from tensions on the sovereign debt front. And consumer-, as well as business sentiment has moved up. But real-side activity is softening, seen in household spending, and importantly in exports. Euro Area GDP is expected to ease to 1.4% growth in 2011 after 1.7% gains in 2010. Japan’s exports continue to decline; after advancing 4.4% in 2010, GDP is likely to slip to 1.8% this year.

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European retail sales growth appears to be waning

Euro Area Germany Consumer confidence [R]Source: National Agencies and Eurostat.

retail sales volume, ch% year-on-year [L];Euro Area consumer sentiment [R]

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IP Mfgr [L] Export orders [R] Export volume [R]

Source: Bundesbank.

IP mfgr, ch% saar [L];DL export orders and export volumes, ch% saar [R]

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Japan's export woes continue

IP Mfgr Export volumesSource: Bank of Japan.

IP mfgr and export volumes, ch% saar



Industrial production begins to pick-up once more. After the sharp contraction in production that occurred across all developing and OECD areas fol-lowing the end of the “bounce-back” phase of the global recovery, world production has begun to pick-up once again. In September and October produc-tion ground to a halt; but global output in November increased almost 1% (m/m). This was driven by de-veloping countries, as deceleration in high income countries (-2.3%, 3m/3m saar) is still ongoing, ex-cept for Germany (3.4%). Developing countries in-dustrial production picked-up 7.6% in November. Even excluding China, which has been at the fore-front of the rebound (15%), developing countries production was up 1.4% in November. A pick-up in exports (6.3% globally), as well as signs of stronger domestic demand supported the November produc-tion gain.

Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) point to continued strength in manufacturing, and for production, even in high-income economies. Consistent with the pick-up in global industrial pro-duction, recent PMI releases support continued ex-pansion in the manufacturing sector (with most in-dexes above the critical 50 expansion threshold) and characterized by a jump in new orders. This is the case for high-income economies as well, including, the United States as well as eurozone economies. On a technical note: departing from the 3m/3m aver-age annualized rate of growth (considered above, because it is less volatile) and using the 2m/2m aver-age, we observe production in both the United States and the eurozone to have expanded in No-vember, thus supporting the gains reported in latest PMIs.

Developing countries industrial production on trend; high-income countries lag. The recent pick-up in production has surpassed peak IP levels at-tained during the bounce back-phase of the recov-ery. Nonetheless, production remains below the pre-crisis peak and trend rate of advance. Indeed, if the global crisis had not occurred and industrial produc-tion were to have grown at it’s pre-boom average (2000-2005), world production in November would have been 2.7% higher. For high-income countries industrial production would have been 8.4% higher, thus reflecting their large output gaps and spare ca-pacity. In contrast, developing countries industrial production is back on trend (0.1% higher) and 13.3% above pre-crisis peaks, reflecting the less severe (in aggregate) drop in output during the crisis.

Industrial Production

After the sharp contraction in industrial output across all regions following the end of the “bounce-back“ phase of global recovery, world production has begun to pick-up once again. Consistent with the pick-up in global industrial production, recent PMI survey releases support continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. But global output growth continues to remain well below pre-crisis trends.

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2007M01 2008M04 2009M07 2010M10

HIY DEV WLD

Industrial production begins to pick-up again (Volumes, 3m/3m, saar)

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group

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Per Capita Income,

($USD'000)

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Latest PMI supports pick-up in IP for both HIY and DEV

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group

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2000M11 2002M11 2004M11 2006M11 2008M11 2010M11

DEV IP DEV IPTREND

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Developing countries IP reaches trend, while High income countries lag. (Industrial production index, Aug 2008 = 100)



Drop in bond flows at year-end. Though capital flows to developing countries declined in December, total flows for 2010 amounted to $510 billion—up 45% from the $353 billion registered in 2009, with bond issuance reaching record highs. Bond flows declined sharply in December, as the month is his-torically the second weakest for issuance (following August), and there appeared to be few residual ef-fects from latest episodes in the European sovereign crisis. Meanwhile, EM bond activity got off to a strong start for 2011, with the governments of the Philippines, Poland, and Turkey tapping the interna-tional market during the first two weeks of January. Equity IPO issuance was also robust, with exception-ally strong flows to China and Brazil, nearly reaching previous highs posted in 2007. Bank lending in 2010 was (at the end of the day) stronger than in 2009, with lending volumes in the second half picking up substantially from the first.

European debt concerns appear to be lessening. The average cost of insuring government debt of several Eurozone economies are tightening once more amid successful sales of Portuguese bonds, and speculation that the European Union will bolster its efforts to contain the region’s ongoing debt crisis. Between late-November and early-January, rising contagion fears following the Irish support package pushed CDS spreads for Ireland, Portugal, and Spain to record highs. In this climate of fear, credit spreads for higher-rated European countries such as Italy and Belgium had also risen. But market sentiment turned positive again, as a well-received Portuguese bond auction (which was followed by bond sales from Spain and Italy) resolved immediate refunding risks. Longer-term prospects for these countries remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the average CDS spread for developing countries appears to have escaped direct effects from the latest European episodes.

EM assets appear resilient in early 2011. Devel-oping-country assets have seen modest gains so far in January 2011, continuing a strong pace from last year’s robust performances—EM assets led the mar-ket gain in 2010 amid record inflows. EM equities have gained a modest 0.75%, extending the 16% return of 2010; EM debt (measured by the EMBIG index) climbed about 0.8%. The extra yield investors demand to buy EM bonds over U.S. Treasuries tight-ened by 7 basis points (bps) so far in 2011, as in-creasing optimism over global economic prospects spurred a rotation away from safe-haven assets and into riskier EM assets.

International Finance

Capital flows fell in December, mainly due to a sharp decline in bond issuance. But total flows for 2010 are well above 2009’s level, with bond volumes reaching record highs. European risk aversion appears to be fad-ing once more amid successful bond sales from several Euro Area governments and optimism about the Euro-pean Union’s willingness to curb the debt crisis. EM assets appear fairly robust at the start of 2011.

Weak bond issuance at year end

$ billion

H1 Q3 Q4 Total H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Total

Total 110 99 144 353 197 171 142 39 510

Bonds 36 33 47 115 86 59 39 4 184

Banks 43 34 52 129 54 47 37 12 139

Equity 32 32 45 109 57 65 66 23 188

Lat. America 37 37 63 137 66 65 33 10 164

Bonds 15 18 29 62 37 31 15 3 82

E. Europe* 22 21 30 72 53 36 33 3 122

Bonds 13 11 9 33 31 17 16 1 64

Asia 44 33 45 122 64 60 72 26 196

Bonds 6 3 7 16 13 9 7 1 28

Others 7 9 6 22 14 10 4 0 28

* Including Poland & Croatia

Source: DECPG

2009 2010

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Greece Ireland

Portugal Spain

EM (right axis)*

European risk aversion appears to be fading out once again5-year sovereign credit-default swaps, basis points (bps)

* Excluding high-risk countries: Argentina, Pakistan, Venezuela, and Ukraine

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EM assets appear relatively strong at the start of 2011

MSCI Emerging Market Index

EM bond spreads [right]

EM equity index [left]

EMBIG spreads (basis points)



Average 2009 2010 20101999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World 2.8 4.8 0.5 -8.0 12.1 12.1 11.2 9.1 0.6 -0.5 0.1 1.6High-income countries 1.4 2.8 -1.8 -12.3 10.5 10.5 9.9 10.6 0.8 -1.0 -0.6 2.2

Industrial countries 1.4 3.1 -2.2 -12.6 9.8 9.8 11.2 10.2 0.9 -0.9 -1.0 2.0United States 1.3 2.7 -3.3 -9.3 6.5 6.5 9.6 7.7 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0Japan 1.1 2.8 -3.0 -21.5 29.8 29.8 25.7 6.9 0.8 -1.5 -3.0 2.4Euro Area 1.2 3.4 -1.7 -14.5 6.9 6.9 6.3 15.4 3.0 -2.3 -1.2 4.7United Kindgom -0.4 0.4 -2.9 -10.2 1.6 1.6 6.8 2.5 1.9 -0.4 -2.9 ..

Other high income 2.1 5.4 1.4 -6.8 6.3 6.3 9.9 13.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 ..Hong Kong (China) .. -1.5 -6.6 -8.4 1.7 1.7 11.0 2.5 0.7 0.8 .. ..Singapore 6.3 6.2 -4.0 -4.4 -24.2 -24.2 134.9 83.9 -3.8 6.9 4.2 -3.3Taiwan (China) 4.7 8.2 -1.3 -8.3 47.9 47.9 29.9 7.1 1.0 -1.0 2.8 6.7

Developing countries -210.3 9.6 5.8 1.3 15.2 15.2 13.6 6.3 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.8East Asia and Pacific 20.8 15.1 10.7 8.4 18.3 18.3 18.6 7.5 1.2 0.7 1.6 1.3

China 15.2 18.0 12.7 11.2 18.2 18.2 19.8 8.2 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.5Indonesia 3.4 5.6 3.0 1.4 14.0 14.0 4.3 1.6 0.1 -5.1 7.1 0.0Thailand 8.6 8.1 4.0 -7.3 35.1 35.1 19.5 -0.4 -3.3 3.7 -0.8 0.6Malaysia 5.8 1.2 0.8 -7.8 9.7 9.7 14.9 6.7 0.2 1.3 1.1 -0.1

Europe and Central Asia 5.1 6.8 0.1 -10.1 16.0 16.0 7.8 8.3 0.6 0.6 3.1 -1.7Russian Federation 5.5 7.0 0.8 -9.5 12.6 12.6 8.3 9.5 0.0 1.9 0.9 0.7Turkey 3.7 7.1 -0.3 -10.2 22.7 22.7 13.5 5.4 1.3 -2.3 9.5 -9.7Poland 6.3 9.3 2.8 -4.0 10.5 10.5 10.9 22.4 2.3 -0.3 -2.8 3.4Czech Republic 4.8 10.6 -1.7 -13.8 11.9 11.9 6.8 18.0 5.2 -1.1 -3.0 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.5 3.9 1.0 -6.9 11.4 11.4 6.5 6.3 1.0 0.1 -1.4 2.8Brazil 3.3 5.9 3.2 -7.5 25.0 25.0 15.7 -0.9 0.4 0.6 -1.9 3.6Mexico .. 2.0 0.0 -7.4 11.0 11.0 5.5 7.5 0.7 0.5 -1.4 1.7Argentina 2.7 6.7 0.9 -5.0 7.9 7.9 10.7 3.6 3.5 -0.3 -2.8 4.6Colombia 2.7 10.9 -2.7 -6.1 2.4 2.4 10.1 12.5 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.6 1.7 3.1 -3.0 3.6 3.6 6.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.5 ..Saudi Arabia 1.0 -4.7 6.2 -10.9 1.0 1.0 4.2 5.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 ..Iran 1.1 -2.9 3.5 -0.3 2.0 2.0 5.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 ..Egypt .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 3.9 1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.7 -1.7 4.9 0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 ..

South Asia 6.8 9.4 4.5 5.4 12.2 12.2 13.0 2.8 -4.7 -1.5 3.8 -3.0India 6.7 10.3 4.8 6.7 12.8 12.8 14.8 3.1 -4.9 -1.8 4.0 -3.0Pakistan 6.7 5.5 -0.7 -4.9 7.8 7.8 2.6 -3.8 -5.4 0.9 1.3 -2.4Bangladesh .. 5.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 5.3 1.0 -6.7 16.1 16.1 13.5 2.1 -1.9 -1.4 0.2 ..South Africa 2.5 4.6 0.8 -12.8 17.2 17.2 5.4 6.8 -3.0 -1.2 0.9 3.5Nigeria .. -3.7 -7.8 1.9 29.6 29.6 28.1 -2.4 1.0 1.0 1.4 ..

Memo:OECD 1.5.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China 3.5 5.1 1.7 -5.2 12.9 12.9 8.9 4.8 -0.5 -0.2 1.2 0.1Developing oil exporters 0.8 3.6 0.6 -5.6 8.7 8.7 7.3 5.2 0.2 -0.1 0.6 1.2Dev. non-oil exporters -213.7 12.8 8.4 4.6 18.0 18.0 16.2 6.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 0.7Asian high tech exporters .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.



Weights

Average 2009 2010 20101995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

Real GDP

High-income countries .. 2.3 2.6 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries .. 2.3 2.5 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 2.6 2.1 0.4 .. 5.0 3.7 1.7 2.5 .. .. .. ..Japan .. 1.3 2.3 -1.2 .. 5.7 6.8 3.0 4.5 .. .. .. ..Euro Area .. 2.0 2.7 0.5 .. 1.7 1.3 4.9 .. .. .. ..United Kindgom .. 2.6 2.6 0.5 .. 1.4 1.8 4.7 3.1 .. .. .. ..

Other high income .. 4.3 6.1 1.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. .. 6.4 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Singapore .. 5.6 7.8 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) .. 3.8 6.0 0.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports

High-income countries .. 10.0 3.0 -16.8 25.2 6.2 0.3 4.6 -0.7 0.4 4.8 ..Industrial countries .. 10.1 2.9 -17.0 24.0 3.6 0.0 5.7 -0.6 0.3 4.8 ..

United States 8.2 1.1 -3.7 -16.5 14.9 19.0 37.9 3.7 -1.9 -4.4 3.4 ..Japan 5.2 -0.2 13.8 -3.9 10.1 6.2 35.7 34.0 1.9 -3.6 0.6 ..Euro Area .. 14.0 6.6 -15.7 21.3 -8.0 -13.9 6.0 -0.8 3.2 4.9 ..United Kindgom 6.3 10.7 -9.5 -26.9 39.6 0.8 -22.2 13.5 -1.8 0.3 .. ..

Other high income 5.5 18.6 5.5 -21.4 44.3 10.2 -13.8 -4.6 -1.9 1.5 5.4 ..Hong Kong (China) 6.6 10.2 2.8 -9.8 36.8 32.0 4.7 0.3 -1.2 -2.8 5.4 ..Singapore 5.2 6.3 9.7 -12.7 11.8 38.6 18.8 2.8 -6.3 -0.6 3.5 -1.3Taiwan (China) 6.2 -1.2 0.2 -19.5 57.8 75.1 -8.0 -6.1 -2.4 6.7 9.9 -0.2

Import Prices

High-income countries .. 2.7 8.9 -9.4 11.1 15.5 1.7 -3.0 -0.4 1.9 0.4 ..Industrial countries .. 2.3 8.6 -9.8 11.1 16.9 2.0 -3.3 -0.5 1.9 0.5 ..

United States -0.1 4.3 11.4 -11.4 27.6 14.0 -14.4 -5.6 0.2 3.6 0.4 ..Japan -1.4 7.6 8.4 -25.2 30.4 37.4 -9.2 -30.6 -4.7 5.8 6.0 ..Euro Area .. 1.7 5.0 -10.4 5.1 18.9 8.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 1.1 ..United Kindgom -1.1 0.9 12.7 3.5 7.5 6.6 10.7 2.8 0.7 1.5 .. ..

Other high income -1.0 0.5 10.9 -5.2 -1.0 10.5 13.0 4.9 0.7 2.1 -0.6 ..Hong Kong (China) -1.2 -0.3 3.0 -1.3 2.7 5.8 10.3 3.7 -0.4 1.1 -2.6 ..Singapore -0.3 3.5 10.5 -11.8 38.3 4.8 -16.9 -1.7 4.0 3.1 4.1 2.5Taiwan (China) -1.6 9.0 8.8 -9.5 24.0 3.6 1.9 -4.9 1.0 1.9 2.1 -2.3

Real effective exchange rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.3 4.1 4.2 -5.0 3.4 -0.8 -6.5 -8.4 0.6 3.8 -1.6 -2.3United States 14.4 -1.1 -4.6 -3.7 10.8 -6.9 -8.1 -3.0 -1.3 -1.0 -3.1 0.3 ..Japan 7.4 -1.2 -6.6 9.8 13.7 -1.5 -5.9 1.0 5.6 0.4 0.9 -0.7 ..United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 2.1 -12.0 -8.2 -4.8 5.2 2.8 2.9 -1.8 -2.7 2.3 ..Canada 3.5 -0.6 0.8 -8.3 -7.6 6.8 12.6 11.8 6.5 0.1 -1.1 1.4 ..Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 6.7 1.0 -3.9 -3.4 -3.0 -1.6 0.2 0.8 -0.3Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -15.9 -13.3 11.6 19.4 9.8 4.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 -1.1Singapore 2.3 1.3 6.9 4.6 -9.2 -0.9 -0.1 3.7 5.0 0.8 -0.2 0.8 ..Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -4.2 -9.3 -2.4 4.3 6.6 2.3 -0.4 -0.3 1.5 3.4Switzerland 1.7 0.0 -4.9 2.2 9.1 3.3 2.0 4.0 8.7 2.6 -1.4 -0.2 ..

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)



Average 2010 2010 Latest1999-08 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 18-Jan

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 1.93 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12Japan 0.33 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area .. 3.89 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00United Kindgom 4.80 4.67 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Ten year bondUnited States 4.70 3.64 3.64 3.23 3.72 3.47 2.75 2.87 2.50 2.75 3.37 3.46Japan 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.32 1.27 1.03 1.04 0.88 1.04 1.19 1.16Euro Area .. 3.99 3.99 3.26 3.19 2.83 2.43 2.61 2.36 2.54 2.92 2.93United Kindgom 4.77 4.50 4.50 3.66 4.06 3.75 3.20 3.35 3.08 3.31 3.65 3.68

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 82 166 126 77 78 50 82 98 80 83 88 122Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Thailand .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia 129 201 230 140 144 145 143 126 128 138 127 114

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 328 443 229 203 231 252 231 243 233 234 225Turkey 404 383 367 221 222 244 246 173 242 191 164 163Poland 99 159 222 156 147 161 171 144 157 135 144 153Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 522 438 522 345 343 354 360 322 356 331 320 315Brazil 551 301 306 202 204 212 212 179 208 184 176 178Mexico 206 254 302 187 189 194 193 171 199 184 166 163Argentina 2920 858 1198 690 735 734 729 560 704 615 545 520Colombia 370 305 329 189 211 209 180 157 176 158 152 161

Middle East and North Africa .. 586 578 346 323 336 383 340 380 374 340 306

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt .. 262 134 173 63 160 247 223 225 239 219 210Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1040 1186 624 644 549 631 673 671 696 664 658Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 329 301 167 177 183 169 140 160 139 140 141Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. 211 353 510 107 90 171 142 52 51 39 ..East Asia and Pacific .. 49 91 144 19 19 50 56 13 19 24 ..Europe and Central Asia .. 64 72 122 27 25 36 33 15 15 3 ..Latin America and Carribean .. 65 137 164 33 33 65 33 11 12 10 ..Middle East and North Africa .. 11 4 14 2 2 7 2 0 2 0 ..South Asia .. 7 31 52 20 6 9 16 12 3 1 ..Sub-Saharan Africa .. 16 18 14 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 ..

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)



Weightsb Average 2009 2010 2010

1990 2000-09 2007 2008 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec

Energy .. .. 244.8 342.0 214.3 230.3 256.1 266.1 267.8 261.1 277.7 288.6 307.3

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 250.4 484.2 273.7 271.7 295.8 362.6 379.0 361.5 371.2 408.2 438.1

Crude oil, average .. 13.1 251.9 343.6 218.8 241.6 267.5 273.0 276.9 269.6 289.5 299.5 318.8

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 221.7 347.5 225.7 179.0 202.3 229.2 194.6 214.6 214.9 222.6 226.5

Non-energy 100.00 .. 224.7 272.0 213.2 219.8 235.2 244.2 255.2 286.9 296.2 305.6 320.2

Agriculture 69.10 .. 180.3 229.5 197.8 199.5 212.6 216.6 215.3 237.9 251.5 264.0 278.3

Beverages 16.90 .. 169.9 210.0 219.9 226.4 247.9 242.5 246.8 255.9 257.3 264.6 277.3

Cocoa 3.90 9.8 215.5 284.5 318.9 327.2 377.4 364.0 354.4 317.4 323.2 321.3 337.8

Coffee, arabica 8.00 3.3 141.9 160.5 165.2 168.1 178.0 184.2 204.2 255.8 249.9 268.1 284.9

Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 209.1 254.2 180.1 175.3 171.3 165.2 176.3 196.3 205.9 222.2 226.1

Food 29.40 .. 184.7 247.4 205.1 206.4 213.7 213.1 201.0 234.2 248.6 259.3 273.1

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 209.0 277.3 216.2 220.9 224.5 224.7 219.7 252.3 269.7 293.8 312.8

Palm oil 2.30 4.6 251.5 305.7 220.1 218.7 236.0 260.3 262.0 294.0 318.1 357.5 395.8

Soybean meal 4.10 10.4 163.0 224.4 215.5 227.7 217.7 195.2 180.8 209.3 216.2 226.8 228.9

Soybeans 2.00 8.0 181.3 246.8 206.3 214.3 207.2 196.7 192.8 221.9 232.7 248.2 258.2

Grains 6.90 .. 189.0 281.7 214.9 202.3 210.8 205.1 186.6 234.3 249.5 255.9 271.8

Maize 1.70 6.3 184.9 252.0 186.9 170.9 189.6 183.8 178.2 232.6 266.4 269.0 282.8

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 8.4 161.3 321.2 274.2 266.3 267.9 264.5 223.5 235.4 240.1 254.2 262.9

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 7.2 223.7 285.8 196.4 183.0 180.0 171.3 155.5 238.1 236.9 240.2 268.7

Other food 12.40 .. 149.0 177.1 181.6 191.2 202.0 205.1 189.4 210.5 220.2 217.0 222.0

Bananas, US 2.30 8.5 159.4 199.1 199.8 194.9 191.7 184.2 203.3 207.7 216.1 214.2 212.2

Sugar, world 7.50 4.2 98.0 115.7 142.9 164.1 172.8 65.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Raw materials 22.80 .. 174.9 195.7 168.7 168.9 192.0 211.9 233.9 237.6 255.7 275.2 291.4

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 1.7 107.1 120.9 106.1 109.0 121.1 137.3 151.7 177.3 214.3 261.9 284.4

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 11.8 339.2 387.6 287.9 298.8 384.5 477.5 558.7 529.6 588.3 646.3 711.3

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 3.0 135.6 149.5 135.5 129.7 135.8 132.5 140.0 147.3 148.0 151.6 150.8

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 240.1 566.7 293.0 252.1 242.8 259.0 253.3 299.8 315.3 332.7 339.8

Triple superphosphate 0.90 5.2 246.2 638.6 186.9 163.1 171.1 230.1 259.5 310.8 330.4 336.8 343.1

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 314.0 325.7 235.6 257.6 280.8 299.0 337.3 385.8 385.7 387.8 403.9

Aluminum 7.90 2.0 170.3 166.1 107.5 117.0 129.3 139.6 135.3 139.6 151.5 150.6 151.7

Copper 9.30 12.6 392.5 383.6 284.0 323.1 366.6 398.8 387.5 425.1 457.3 467.1 504.4

Gold .. 13.3 249.7 312.4 348.7 344.1 394.8 397.4 428.5 455.5 481.0 490.9 498.3

Nickel 2.20 9.3 431.0 244.4 169.7 204.9 202.9 231.1 260.2 262.1 275.6 265.2 279.1

Memo:Crude Oil (US$) .. 13.1 71.1 97.0 61.8 68.2 75.5 77.1 78.2 76.1 81.7 84.5 90.0

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.



Average 2009 2010 2010

1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

Export values

Developing countries 11.1 19.2 21.1 -22.5 68.9 38.1 10.6 -6.6 1.2 1.9 1.7 9.1East Asia and Pacific 18.5 22.0 16.8 -16.4 69.8 38.6 23.6 -2.7 -0.7 0.6 1.9 9.1

China 22.8 26.3 17.4 -16.4 65.3 39.0 35.7 -2.7 -2.3 0.1 2.1 9.6Indonesia .. 13.2 20.2 -15.2 126.9 21.3 -13.6 11.8 6.5 -1.6 8.0 16.7Thailand 12.6 18.7 15.8 -14.3 56.1 55.1 13.0 -22.0 3.5 3.8 -1.5 10.8

Europe and Central Asia 18.9 20.6 30.9 -32.7 79.0 38.5 -8.2 -23.9 0.5 4.8 4.8 4.5Russian Federation 20.3 16.4 33.9 -36.2 101.1 73.2 -19.9 -30.1 0.9 6.0 2.4 8.0Turkey 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland 19.7 26.6 22.0 -20.2 44.4 1.4 -8.0 3.7 2.0 0.6 2.1 3.4

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 13.2 11.9 -20.4 63.5 36.6 18.2 2.4 6.0 1.8 -2.8 13.4Brazil 14.5 16.9 22.6 -22.3 43.6 64.4 40.4 -5.4 7.5 0.0 -0.2 10.5Mexico 9.5 8.7 7.4 -21.3 87.7 30.0 14.3 -1.3 6.1 -4.0 1.2 14.0Argentina 10.2 20.2 25.6 -20.5 52.5 29.9 75.2 -2.5 4.6 6.3 -8.6 7.8

Middle East and North Africa 21.8 15.2 34.5 -32.9 58.6 52.0 -29.0 -12.6 -1.5 1.8 .. ..Saudi Arabia 21.7 6.7 44.8 -43.1 130.2 27.9 -15.4 -22.5 -1.3 4.7 .. ..Iran .. 18.0 32.5 -37.7 84.2 61.6 -7.3 0.0 -3.7 1.5 .. ..Egypt 23.3 18.5 56.3 -8.5 110.0 -28.5 -1.8 17.9 4.5 8.1 .. ..

South Asia 15.8 18.3 24.9 -12.3 42.6 30.8 10.5 -7.4 3.9 7.0 5.7 5.5India 18.4 21.9 27.1 -13.0 49.8 30.9 13.8 -8.2 4.0 8.8 3.7 7.4Pakistan 9.1 2.5 15.4 -13.1 41.7 50.8 -17.8 5.5 3.7 -9.2 27.2 -10.8Bangladesh 11.6 8.3 23.8 -2.5 -14.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 16.8 20.1 28.2 -31.0 94.9 32.4 -0.2 -10.8 6.7 2.8 .. ..South Africa 11.8 21.0 15.5 -22.6 60.3 26.8 13.6 19.5 -4.9 5.2 1.5 15.9Nigeria 21.0 16.0 29.9 -39.9 98.7 46.8 21.9 -27.7 -2.5 7.5 .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries .. 5.2 18.0 -14.1 18.5 10.2 -6.0 4.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5East Asia and Pacific .. 5.1 10.4 -6.9 8.0 2.1 -0.1 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5

China 0.0 4.9 8.9 -5.7 3.0 0.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.2Indonesia .. 7.5 21.2 -20.2 45.8 15.5 -9.3 0.6 1.6 3.2 2.8 4.0Thailand 5.7 6.6 9.4 0.4 22.9 6.4 -0.7 2.2 -1.1 0.8 2.3 4.6

Europe and Central Asia .. 5.3 32.0 -24.0 27.1 25.9 -7.5 0.3 3.0 -0.4 1.1 2.4Russian Federation .. 3.8 43.6 -28.6 34.1 36.6 -9.9 4.6 4.9 -1.9 0.5 2.5Turkey 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland -0.9 12.8 11.0 -11.7 -11.9 -33.5 -23.6 35.6 0.3 5.7 13.6 -0.6

Latin America and Caribbean 1.0 6.8 14.6 -13.5 38.1 3.2 -5.6 10.7 1.5 3.5 4.3 3.5Brazil 5.4 7.1 23.6 -12.3 15.7 1.4 7.5 25.0 2.1 2.5 1.6 2.2Mexico 5.8 5.1 9.6 -14.4 43.9 10.4 -12.8 -3.9 0.2 0.8 7.5 4.2Argentina 5.3 11.4 23.7 -12.2 11.2 10.5 -10.4 12.1 1.7 2.9 8.5 -0.6

Middle East and North Africa .. 4.6 31.8 -25.8 37.7 40.0 -37.2 6.1 1.7 1.5 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 23.8 5.8 54.2 -43.8 137.0 65.2 -9.2 -49.4 -6.1 -3.6 .. ..Iran .. 1.3 53.6 -33.8 22.9 76.9 -33.0 36.2 3.2 -3.3 .. ..Egypt .. 3.9 32.9 -21.9 28.1 17.7 -11.6 7.1 1.0 0.8 .. ..

South Asia 2.4 5.3 18.4 -9.2 3.5 8.9 8.5 18.0 0.2 0.2 -1.2 2.0

India 4.3 5.3 19.0 -11.0 4.7 6.9 11.7 19.7 0.0 0.5 -0.8 1.9Pakistan 0.5 4.1 30.6 6.0 -15.2 28.9 -12.0 4.0 2.5 -0.2 -7.3 5.1Bangladesh -6.7 4.7 7.1 -4.4 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 4.7 30.0 -22.3 34.7 34.6 -15.3 22.9 4.4 -0.8 .. ..

South Africa 6.9 8.0 8.0 -1.1 45.0 7.7 9.5 11.1 3.7 1.2 2.5 5.4Nigeria .. 1.1 55.6 -34.7 33.4 70.1 -25.4 18.6 7.9 -3.2 .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 15.8 21.5 25.7 -20.5 65.8 40.8 7.8 -2.7 3.5 -0.5 2.8 10.0

East Asia and Pacific 18.7 18.7 21.4 -15.5 75.7 56.7 2.0 -7.9 3.6 0.0 5.3 11.8China 23.2 20.8 18.8 -11.8 77.6 60.1 1.8 -10.5 5.8 1.7 4.7 11.8Indonesia 16.8 21.9 73.1 -25.0 89.7 58.4 -4.7 -7.8 -4.5 -12.8 23.5 16.7Thailand 15.5 8.6 28.1 -25.5 89.7 76.1 -11.4 -4.7 0.2 -3.0 -2.2 23.4

Europe and Central Asia 17.2 30.2 27.0 -33.5 60.2 19.8 21.2 7.4 6.0 -0.3 3.5 5.6Russian Federation 17.5 36.4 32.1 -34.7 67.1 26.6 39.4 28.4 15.2 -6.4 -0.5 5.1Turkey 16.0 21.9 19.3 -30.6 56.6 39.0 2.9 2.1 0.6 6.6 10.9 4.5Poland 16.1 30.4 26.4 -28.7 36.2 28.3 -20.6 4.8 8.3 -0.9 3.1 10.7

Latin America and Caribbean 10.1 19.2 22.2 -24.8 45.1 50.8 32.5 0.9 4.1 -1.5 -1.7 11.3Brazil 11.6 31.9 43.4 -26.0 89.3 66.0 40.8 4.5 2.9 2.5 -4.6 14.4Mexico 9.4 10.1 9.8 -24.2 51.6 49.3 26.7 -10.9 4.7 -5.2 2.1 9.1Argentina 6.2 30.6 28.9 -32.4 70.2 56.9 72.0 9.8 11.5 -2.9 -5.0 16.5

Middle East and North Africa 14.7 22.8 46.5 -8.0 43.0 0.6 -6.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.7 .. ..Saudi Arabia 14.4 29.1 26.2 -18.6 23.1 -6.9 38.7 -10.9 -2.0 -2.9 .. ..Iran 17.1 10.9 54.7 -14.5 48.8 -14.9 24.9 0.4 -2.9 0.7 .. ..Egypt 11.7 31.6 77.8 -6.6 24.0 48.0 -21.5 21.0 -5.1 3.9 .. ..

South Asia 19.0 21.3 38.8 -18.3 119.0 46.7 -6.5 -6.5 0.4 -2.8 -1.2 6.0India 21.3 24.5 42.5 -18.0 134.4 55.0 -11.0 -10.8 1.0 -3.5 -0.9 5.4Pakistan 16.5 9.5 24.8 -22.5 27.5 47.0 -10.3 18.7 -3.9 3.2 -4.0 11.2Bangladesh 12.3 15.5 28.9 -8.0 122.1 -46.6 158.1 10.5 -0.7 -3.2 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 14.9 21.5 24.9 -18.2 40.0 7.0 -6.4 8.5 6.2 0.8 .. ..South Africa 13.2 17.8 11.7 -27.3 110.7 18.7 3.7 9.8 7.3 -1.7 -0.4 6.9Nigeria 21.8 33.4 39.2 -20.0 18.1 12.7 -14.6 -9.0 -2.0 11.3 .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries .. 5.2 16.9 -11.1 11.7 5.6 3.5 2.3 0.7 1.2 0.4 1.7East Asia and Pacific .. 4.1 16.8 -11.4 11.9 3.1 7.4 1.7 1.0 1.3 -0.5 1.8

China .. 5.1 17.7 -12.4 13.3 0.8 12.0 2.0 1.2 2.1 -1.0 2.1Indonesia .. 4.3 28.4 -19.2 10.9 20.5 -10.0 13.6 1.4 0.5 -0.1 2.1Thailand 3.9 -4.0 8.7 0.3 8.2 9.0 -8.8 -11.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 1.5

Europe and Central Asia .. 5.1 11.0 -11.8 12.0 11.4 -0.4 3.5 0.0 2.3 2.4 2.0Russian Federation 1.7 4.0 11.0 -6.2 5.2 5.7 -0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.1 2.6Turkey 5.2 11.1 -0.9 -13.6 15.7 22.3 11.0 12.9 0.1 4.2 6.7 1.8Poland -0.2 -1.7 -0.5 8.6 -27.5 -20.0 5.6 57.6 3.4 1.5 0.4 -6.6

Latin America and Caribbean 4.1 6.3 14.7 -8.6 11.5 6.0 1.6 -1.6 0.6 0.4 1.9 1.8Brazil 5.6 8.3 21.9 -10.5 14.0 4.8 2.5 -9.3 2.1 -0.7 4.0 0.8Mexico 3.3 5.4 8.4 -3.8 7.3 9.5 0.8 2.7 -0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3Argentina 1.8 6.6 10.9 -11.8 9.4 5.2 28.3 -15.0 0.6 -0.6 -1.8 4.3

Middle East and North Africa .. 6.1 19.0 -10.2 10.2 -2.1 0.9 10.1 1.1 2.4 .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. 4.9 12.3 -6.3 4.5 -3.8 9.4 3.3 -0.1 0.6 .. ..Iran .. 5.4 20.8 -12.2 10.8 -0.1 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 .. ..Egypt .. 7.3 18.3 -12.8 16.9 2.5 -4.6 10.0 2.3 1.8 .. ..

South Asia 2.3 6.5 30.3 -17.3 13.6 23.4 0.8 8.4 1.4 0.3 -0.3 1.4

India 3.3 5.1 30.4 -18.3 18.8 24.0 1.5 6.2 1.6 -0.3 0.5 1.4Pakistan 9.6 11.2 47.9 -9.1 -26.8 12.5 21.3 37.1 1.4 -0.5 -7.2 1.3Bangladesh -6.2 5.9 17.9 -10.2 8.1 1.7 -6.5 9.8 1.0 5.2 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 6.4 20.0 -10.9 10.1 4.8 -2.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 .. ..

South Africa 5.8 10.8 25.5 -6.7 8.0 3.3 2.2 -9.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.1Nigeria .. 4.3 16.6 -9.9 6.5 0.0 -3.6 6.5 1.2 1.3 .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.



US$ bn. % GDP 2009 2010 2010

2008 2008 2007 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World -168.7 -0.3 -76.6 -161.8 -22.2 74.3 6.6 -57.1 -35.7 -188.2 76.0 100.5 -154.4

High-income countries a -418.9 -1.0 -489.2 -499.9 -197.3 -117.6 -181.2 -275.7 -209.7 -293.1 -139.4 -73.5 -303.6Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -640.3 -748.9 -298.5 -268.5 -369.4 -442.7 -367.4 -462.1 -296.3 -216.9 -439.9

United States -706.1 -5.0 -870.5 -881.3 -548.3 -597.6 -671.2 -722.0 -696.6 -742.6 -676.7 -639.9 -666.0Japan 183.2 3.7 91.9 21.2 28.2 70.2 80.2 70.2 81.1 58.3 87.0 85.4 45.3Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 50.1 -7.0 59.8 76.9 47.6 33.7 64.3 56.9 91.3 99.0 -14.2United Kindgom -73.6 -2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 230.8 243.7 295.6 322.7 311.4 322.6 352.9 339.0 371.5 405.9 355.8Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -23.4 -26.2 -29.0 -40.8 -44.1 -44.2 -34.8 -20.8 -36.2 -46.9 -43.5Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 26.7 15.4 28.4 20.6 19.3 30.8 27.2 26.9 19.0 17.3 3.9

Developing countries 293.5 1.8 412.5 336.9 172.8 188.2 182.8 216.4 168.5 98.0 210.3 160.4 132.0East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 333.7 323.4 254.5 207.4 165.4 272.3 297.1 263.8 278.0 217.7 181.8

China 426.1 11.5 262.0 294.7 194.7 148.6 114.5 224.3 250.4 220.7 199.5 169.3 154.3Indonesia 0.6 0.1 39.6 8.3 19.6 27.0 19.9 16.1 22.8 23.2 37.4 22.7 26.4Thailand -0.1 0.0 14.0 -1.0 19.1 11.5 7.0 18.5 8.7 6.6 19.0 19.9 0.9Malaysia 38.9 19.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. -23.2 -4.6 3.5 34.7 61.5 14.7 -43.1 -66.4 -33.2 -26.0 -35.5Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 131.2 179.8 110.2 154.7 195.6 153.8 104.4 80.3 119.3 129.7 147.6Turkey -41.3 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland -29.0 -5.6 -25.4 -38.3 -12.8 -10.6 -20.7 -14.1 -14.6 -18.9 -16.3 -18.3 -32.0Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 4.4 4.1 8.0 10.1 7.2 5.4 5.1 4.3 6.2 10.2 7.1

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -2.9 -74.6 -22.3 -5.4 -24.5 -48.6 -45.8 -50.6 -24.1 -33.0 -20.5Brazil -28.2 -1.7 40.4 24.5 25.4 15.6 17.3 18.7 13.9 18.4 13.9 22.3 17.7Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -9.9 -17.5 -4.6 6.7 -2.7 -10.5 -2.9 -2.9 0.8 -2.0 12.3Argentina 7.6 2.6 11.3 12.7 16.9 14.2 12.9 15.1 13.4 10.3 16.4 12.9 9.1Colombia -6.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.1 -0.1 1.4 2.5 -0.1 -4.2 -3.0 -3.3 1.8 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 177.4 214.4 69.5 91.2 133.6 103.0 90.6 89.1 94.0 .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 118.6 188.5 79.3 113.8 128.9 111.6 101.2 96.9 109.1 .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 50.1 56.3 18.9 24.3 38.6 33.0 32.9 32.0 33.0 .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -10.8 -22.7 -21.7 -19.8 -27.0 -24.0 -25.3 -24.1 -24.0 .. ..Algeria 0.0 0.0 31.7 39.9 4.5 10.2 16.9 14.0 10.8 11.7 8.5 .. ..

South Asia .. -94.8 -157.4 -114.7 -150.2 -172.3 -159.3 -157.2 -164.0 -135.8 -116.4 -124.7India .. .. -68.9 -120.8 -89.6 -119.3 -141.6 -125.4 -120.5 -128.5 -100.0 -89.4 -89.9Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -15.5 -20.9 -14.4 -14.6 -15.9 -15.9 -17.2 -15.4 -18.6 -11.8 -18.5Bangladesh .. .. -4.2 -6.0 -4.7 -8.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. -3.6 -5.8 -3.1 -4.3 -6.4 -4.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 22.5 36.5 -11.8 18.2 33.8 38.0 24.4 23.2 29.3 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -9.7 -8.2 -2.2 -3.6 -2.5 -0.8 0.9 -4.1 1.3 2.8 10.5Nigeria 20.3 9.3 27.8 32.5 8.7 21.4 26.7 32.2 27.2 26.8 27.2 .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. 150.2 41.4 -21.3 41.2 72.5 -10.5 -85.7 -126.3 13.7 0.1 -3.8Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 280.5 317.7 148.2 269.1 335.5 254.4 198.0 175.1 249.9 234.6 286.9Developing non-oil exporters .. .. 131.8 19.1 23.7 -82.5 -155.4 -38.2 -27.6 -76.3 -36.8 -71.7 -145.0Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted



WeightsAverage

Levelb 2010 2010 Latest1995 2000-09 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec 18-Jan

World 100.0 94.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countries 78.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 70.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 7.4 112.0 -1.2 13.9 10.4 3.2 5.8 9.1 8.9 1.2 3.2 -1.0 -0.8 0.5

Euro Area 29.5 .. 9.1 6.9 -5.0 6.2 -6.7 -9.6 -8.1 1.5 6.2 -1.9 -3.1 -0.4

United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 8.7 -8.4 -14.9 8.8 -3.6 -5.5 -3.3 -0.5 1.8 0.6 -2.4 0.4

Other high income 7.7 101.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 5.4 6.5 -2.7 7.8 5.8 6.1 7.0 1.6 2.4 0.3 -0.5 1.1

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -1.0 4.2 -4.5 6.4 4.0 2.7 6.4 0.6 2.9 1.6 1.5 2.5

Developing countries 21.7 115.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 2.7 7.9 4.8 9.4 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.6 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.5

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 0.3 -5.4 -7.0 25.2 15.5 10.8 5.5 -0.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.9 0.0

Thailand 1.3 38.9 10.7 2.7 -2.8 7.4 7.3 7.4 11.1 3.0 2.9 0.3 -0.8 -0.9

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 6.7 3.1 -5.4 7.5 9.5 11.5 9.3 1.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 2.0

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 6.3 2.8 -21.7 14.1 6.1 2.3 -4.0 -1.3 1.6 -2.3 0.7 1.2

Turkey .. 1.3 10.0 0.1 -16.1 9.9 1.9 -1.0 1.8 1.3 4.7 -1.4 -5.2 -2.2

Poland 0.5 3.5 12.2 14.8 -22.8 19.9 3.2 -5.4 -3.3 2.4 6.2 -2.0 -4.1 2.5

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 11.3 18.9 -10.5 13.4 -2.8 -7.1 -3.8 2.1 6.7 -2.3 -5.2 2.0

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil 1.1 2.3 11.7 6.2 -8.3 28.5 15.9 6.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 -1.7 1.1 1.0

Mexico 1.7 10.8 -0.2 -2.0 -17.4 12.5 6.0 3.6 5.5 -0.2 2.9 0.8 -0.4 1.8

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -15.2 -7.7 -4.4 -2.8 -3.8 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 5.6 -8.8 24.3 14.3 9.9 5.3 0.8 -0.3 -3.1 -2.9 2.5

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. -1.2 -2.1 -1.3 3.2 0.1 -4.8 -4.5 0.6 -0.8 0.7 0.0 ..

Egypt 0.3 5.2 1.7 3.7 -2.0 2.0 0.2 -2.7 -5.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1

Algeria 0.3 73.4 4.5 7.7 -10.8 -0.6 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 -0.3 1.5 -0.3 -0.8 0.7

South Asia 1.2 107.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 0.8 45.5 9.5 -5.0 -10.1 8.5 6.9 4.1 4.0 1.3 3.6 -1.3 -0.3 -0.2

Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -0.7 -14.1 -13.4 -5.8 -4.5 -3.6 -2.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.1

Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -1.9 -0.1 -1.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.6

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -6.0 2.1 -5.8 -0.2 2.3 2.0 2.8 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2.. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.6 7.7 -4.0 -14.6 -2.0 32.4 12.1 6.7 8.5 2.5 3.1 -1.0 2.4 0.2

Nigeria 0.3 124.9 2.2 5.6 -20.5 -1.9 -1.7 1.1 -0.9 -1.2 0.4 0.9 -1.5 0.0

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)




World 4.8 4.7 8.7 2.8 1.2 1.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9

High-income countries 3.3 2.4 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.9Industrial countries 3.2 2.3 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0

United States 3.8 2.9 3.8 -0.3 -1.7 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2Japan 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -2.3 -2.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 0.1Euro Area 3.3 2.1 3.1 0.2 -0.4 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8United Kindgom 3.6 2.3 3.6 2.2 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2

Other high income 6.1 2.4 4.4 1.7 .. .. .. .. 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.4Hong Kong (China) 4.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.9Singapore 6.5 2.1 6.6 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.9 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.8Taiwan (China) 3.5 1.8 3.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 1.3 1.1 -0.5 0.3 0.5 1.5

Developing countries 10.4 6.2 10.3 4.0 2.1 2.9 4.6 4.6 3.8 3.7 4.4 ..East Asia and Pacific 9.5 5.6 9.5 1.5 -0.1 1.7 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.3 .. ..

China 5.8 4.8 5.8 -0.7 -1.3 0.6 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.6 4.4 5.1Indonesia 9.5 5.8 9.5 4.8 2.6 2.6 3.8 4.4 6.4 5.7 5.7 6.3Thailand 5.5 2.2 5.5 -0.8 -2.2 2.0 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8Malaysia 5.4 2.0 5.4 0.6 -2.4 -0.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9

Europe and Central Asia 10.4 8.4 10.2 3.1 2.4 3.0 4.5 4.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.5Russian Federation 14.1 9.0 14.1 11.6 11.4 9.2 7.2 5.9 6.0 6.9 7.5 8.1Turkey 10.4 8.8 10.4 6.2 5.4 5.7 9.3 9.2 8.4 9.3 8.6 7.3Poland 4.3 2.4 4.3 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.8Czech Republic 6.3 2.9 6.3 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

Latin America and Caribbean 8.8 6.5 8.8 3.3 1.9 2.3 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.6Brazil 5.7 3.6 5.7 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.6Mexico 5.1 4.0 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.0 4.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.3Argentina 8.6 8.8 8.6 6.3 5.8 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0Colombia 7.0 5.5 7.0 4.2 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6

Middle East and North Africa 13.7 3.7 9.9 3.4 2.7 2.7 4.5 4.9 3.5 4.0 4.0 ..Saudi Arabia 9.9 4.2 9.9 5.1 4.2 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8Iran 25.5 17.2 25.6 13.5 12.0 7.3 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 11.8 ..Egypt 18.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 0.1 3.5 4.4 5.8 6.3 5.9 4.4 5.0 3.8 2.4 2.8 ..

South Asia 10.9 7.6 10.9 10.8 10.4 10.0 11.7 10.1 10.1 8.8 9.8 8.2India 8.4 6.4 8.3 10.8 11.5 13.2 15.1 13.7 10.1 10.1 9.8 8.2Pakistan 20.3 7.6 20.3 13.7 10.6 10.0 13.3 13.0 13.2 15.7 15.3 15.5Bangladesh 8.9 9.1 8.9 5.4 4.1 7.5 9.0 8.7 7.4 7.5 .. ..Sri Lanka 22.6 15.9 22.6 3.4 0.8 3.0 6.6 5.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.1

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 6.9 10.5 7.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 ..South Africa .. 7.1 11.5 7.1 6.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.6Nigeria 11.6 5.4 11.6 11.5 10.0 11.6 14.8 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.3 12.8

Memo: .. .. .. ..OECD 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.8 3.7 4.3 ..Developing excl. China .. 6.3 10.3 4.2 2.3 2.9 4.6 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.0 ..Developing oil exporters 12.0 5.4 9.5 5.3 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.6Developing non-oil exporters 10.3 6.6 10.4 3.4 1.4 2.7 4.7 4.6 .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.



Weights 2010 20101995 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World 100.0High-income countriesb 82.8 2.32 0.44 0.44 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 2.32 0.44 0.44 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 1.93 0.16 0.18 0.13 1.13 2.13 3.13 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.70 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 3.89 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.67 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 2.16 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 3.13 0.50 0.88 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 5.00Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 1.15 0.45 0.38 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.38 0.33 0.31 0.31Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.93 0.12 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24

Developing countries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 7.18 5.31 5.36 5.31 6.31 7.31 8.31 5.31 5.41 5.56 5.61Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.48 2.11 2.45 2.05 3.05 4.05 5.05 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.87 11.38 8.32 8.64 8.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 17.05 9.71 6.98 6.89 6.96 7.01 7.08 7.03 7.17 7.23 6.84Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.88 3.62 3.34 3.28 3.34 3.35 3.38 3.36 3.37 3.37 3.41Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 3.49 1.52 0.84 1.00 0.85 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.45 10.16 9.90 8.75 9.44 10.64 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.88 5.52 4.57 4.63 4.64 4.63 4.40 4.61 4.41 4.27 4.53Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.43 11.59 9.21 9.18 8.88 9.30 9.48 9.44 9.26 9.35 9.81Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 9.68 6.28 3.67 3.99 3.73 3.50 3.45 3.48 3.42 3.47 3.48

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 2.89 1.22 0.35 .. 0.41 0.40 .. .. .. .. ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.17 9.33 8.50 .. 8.50 8.50 .. 8.50 .. .. ..Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.90 8.90 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 10.63 12.12 11.99 11.99 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 ..Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.50 9.03 7.42 7.50 7.50 7.44 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 11.61 8.39 6.41 6.97 6.50 6.39 5.77 6.16 6.00 5.82 5.50Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.85 7.44 6.03 6.00 6.00 6.08 .. 6.25 .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.



Average 2010 20101999-08 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Japan 84 79 62 68 64 62 61 65 62 63 64 67Euro Area 99 403 222 299 271 259 256 288 276 297 298 313United Kindgom 88 100 65 78 69 67 71 78 73 76 76 76

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 139 121 156 139 137 143 163 162 175 179 176Singapore 80 10 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5Taiwan (China) 72 87 74 95 76 75 76 86 81 85 88 94

Developing countriesa,b 156 220 176 233 191 190 195 219 205 220 222 223East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 202 182 218 212 208 212 233 194 208 210 201Indonesia 207 407 356 582 360 385 419 468 397 426 429 412Thailand 188 245 201 306 187 202 226 279 223 246 255 254Malaysia 116 159 141 193 152 161 175 193 197 203 204 204

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 490 259 356 354 342 335 377 345 367 372 402Turkey 87 116 93 147 108 112 123 143 122 140 138 124Poland 168 229 132 175 146 138 142 166 162 179 179 175Czech Republic 354 847 577 601 557 511 512 515 589 612 591 570

Latin America and Caribbean 203 361 291 394 345 337 349 388 377 404 404 403Brazil 199 395 317 419 389 373 381 415 401 428 421 416Mexico 193 302 229 315 265 275 273 316 296 322 338 350Argentina 104 175 101 161 112 115 132 180 156 177 202 208Colombia 352 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. 231 164 220 187 185 188 214 194 210 212 218Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 213 556 354 426 328 328 302 318 299 306 302 304Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 297 242 348 256 263 272 305 321 350 342 334Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 369 447 670 671 749 828 867 876 893 897 872Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 240 218 293 235 239 250 291 249 268 273 284Nigeria 409 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo: .. .. .. ..OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng



GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECDWorld -2.1 3.4 3.2 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.5 188.6 -333.1 .. 178.1 -333.7 ..High-income countries -3.3 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.4 -139.1 -333.4 .. -111.5 -333.9 ..

Industrial countries -3.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.5 2.4 -226.0 -333.5 .. -199.6 -333.9 ..United States -2.4 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.1 1.8 2.8 -497.8 -451.0 -506.2 -544.7 -428.2 -565.5Japan -5.1 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.1 2.0 181.0 156.4 145.5 193.7 162.4 147.9Euro Area -4.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.7 -10.0 -70.3 -10.5 19.0 -88.2 44.8United Kindgom -5.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 1.0 2.2 -33.2 -24.5 -56.8 -28.7 -14.6 -48.5

Other high income -2.0 4.8 5.4 .. 4.5 4.2 .. 86.9 .. .. 88.1 .. ..Hong Kong (China) -2.7 4.9 5.6 .. 4.5 4.4 .. 20.7 .. .. 22.3 .. ..Singapore -2.0 6.4 8.0 .. 5.1 4.6 .. 30.0 .. .. 30.7 .. ..Taiwan (China) -1.9 5.3 5.6 .. 4.6 4.2 .. 32.5 .. .. 32.1 .. ..

Developing countries 1.8 6.4 6.2 .. 6.2 5.6 .. 327.6 0.3 .. 289.5 0.2 ..East Asia and Pacific 7.1 9.0 8.9 .. 8.3 7.5 .. 348.8 0.3 .. 350.7 0.3 ..

China 8.7 9.9 9.9 .. 9.0 8.1 .. 288.7 0.2 276.4 292.2 0.2 323.9Indonesia 4.5 5.8 5.6 .. 6.0 5.9 .. 8.0 .. .. 6.8 .. ..Thailand -2.3 4.9 3.2 .. 4.7 4.2 .. 12.3 .. .. 9.7 .. ..Malaysia -1.7 5.5 7.1 .. 5.0 4.0 .. 33.2 .. .. 35.5 .. ..

Europe and Central Asia -5.3 3.5 3.4 .. 4.0 3.7 .. 5.6 0.0 .. -10.8 0.0 ..Russian Federation -7.9 4.7 4.5 .. 4.6 4.2 .. 68.9 0.1 .. 65.8 0.1 ..Turkey -5.6 4.9 4.8 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 -28.1 .. -19.9 -33.9 .. -25.8Poland 1.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 3.6 3.2 3.1 -11.0 .. -11.5 -16.0 .. -13.2Czech Republic -4.2 1.5 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 -1.6 .. 0.6 -2.1 .. 0.8

Latin America and Caribbean -2.5 4.3 4.2 .. 3.8 3.4 .. -42.7 -0.1 .. -65.1 -0.1 ..Brazil -0.2 5.8 6.3 .. 4.5 4.5 .. -48.7 -0.1 .. -62.2 -0.1 ..Mexico -6.5 4.2 4.2 2.7 3.5 2.6 3.9 -10.3 .. 9.4 -15.2 .. 15.0Argentina -2.8 4.6 4.2 .. 3.0 2.9 .. 8.7 .. .. 7.2 .. ..Colombia 0.1 3.0 2.5 .. 3.8 3.6 .. -5.4 .. .. -6.2 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.2 4.0 3.3 .. 4.6 3.5 .. 50.3 .. .. 60.1 .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 4.7 5.2 4.9 .. 5.6 5.3 .. -2.7 .. .. -2.1 .. ..Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 6.1 7.5 7.0 .. 7.8 7.5 .. -39.5 .. .. -49.0 .. ..India 6.6 8.2 7.7 .. 8.4 8.0 .. -32.3 .. .. -42.5 .. ..Pakistan 2.7 3.8 2.9 .. 4.2 4.4 .. -7.2 .. .. -6.5 .. ..Bangladesh 5.4 5.9 5.7 .. 6.3 5.9 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..Sri Lanka 3.5 .. 6.4 .. .. 5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa -1.8 2.9 2.8 .. 3.8 3.7 .. -16.2 .. .. -18.1 .. ..Nigeria 5.8 5.8 6.2 .. 6.3 5.8 .. 24.1 .. .. 23.9 .. ..

Memo:OECD -3.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.5 -281.8 -333.6 .. -273.0 -334.0 ..Developing excl. China -1.0 4.8 4.5 .. 4.8 4.4 .. 39.0 .. .. -2.6 .. ..Developing oil exporters 1.4 3.4 2.2 .. 4.6 3.8 .. 100.5 0.1 .. 109.5 0.1 ..Developing non-oil exporters 1.8 6.6 6.6 .. 6.3 5.8 .. 227.2 0.2 .. 180.1 0.1 ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN

Europe and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR

East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA

Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM

South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK

Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE

Other Aggregates:

OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA

Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA

Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN

Developing Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

Annual growth projected to slow in 2011 back” phase, and...

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