Annual Education Lecture19 February 2014

The Cruel Myths and Basic Maths of MOOCs

Diana LaurillardLondon Knowledge Lab

Institute of Education

Outline of the argument

• The social purpose of HE

• The global demand for HE

• The capabilities of MOOCs

• The economics of teaching and learning at HE level

• Modelling costs and pedagogy

• Teaching on the large scale with technology

• Modelling costs and benefits

The principles and maths of HE

Economic -

Personal -

Knowledge -

Social -

The social purpose of HE

Personal -

Knowledge -

Economic -

Social -

to inspire and enable individuals to develop their capabilities to the highest potential levels throughout life

to increase knowledge and understanding for their own sake and foster their application to the benefit of the economy and society

to serve the needs of an adaptable, sustainable, knowledge-based economy at local, regional and national levels

to play a major role in shaping a democratic, civilised and inclusive society

instruction in skills for employment

promoting the general powers of the mind

advancing learning

transmitting a common culture and standards of citizenship

Robbins Report (1963): Aims and purposes of HE

Dearing Report (1997): Aims and purposes of HE

The global demand for education

The new UNESCO goals for education:• Every child completes a full 9 years of free basic

education … • Post-basic education expanded to meet needs for

knowledge and skills … (UNESCO post 2015 goals)

By 2025, the global demand for higher education will double to ~200m per year, mostly from emerging economies (NAFSA 2010)

300,000 school-age children are refugees in Lebanon, without schooling

Student loan debt in US is higher than CC debt so students will demand new models of teaching and learning

So how do we “play a major role in shaping a democratic, civilised and inclusive society”

1:25 staff:students??

The MOOC as ‘large-scale’ pedagogy

MOOCs are not large scale – Duke University

Completed = 21% of ‘starters’Duke University Report 2012

21%

The MOOC as ‘large-scale’ pedagogy

Average student numbers per course - Edinburgh

Statement of Accomplishment

Week 5 asst's

Engaged Week 1

Accessed Week 1

Enrolled

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

5500

6000

15000

20500

51500

Completed = 27% of ‘starters’

MOOCs @ Edinburgh 2013 – Report #1

27%

SoA

Week 6

Week 5

Week 4

Week 3

Week 2

Week 1

Registered

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

The MOOC as ‘large-scale’ pedagogy

Average student numbers per course - UoL

9592

11377

17275

23367

53250

MOOC Report 2013: University of London

7730

6747

2211

9%

Completed = 9% of ‘starters’

The MOOC as undergraduate education

Not for undergraduates

Enrolled students

Duke University Report 2012

72% have degrees

The MOOC as undergraduate education

Not for undergraduates

Enrolled students

Less than high school

School

College

Degree

PG degree

0% 5% 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

40%

30%

17%

10%

3%

MOOCs @ Edinburgh 2013 – Report #1

70% have degrees

Schooling

GCSE

A level

Professional

Bachelors

Masters

Doctorate

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

The MOOC as undergraduate education

Not for undergraduates

Enrolled students

4%

29%

35%

8%

3%

MOOC Report 2013: University of London

68% have degrees

8%

11%

The MOOC as undergraduate education

MOOCs: Higher Education’s Digital Moment? 2013: UUK

85% have degrees

The economics of teaching and learning in MOOCs

MOOCs are freeopen to allwholly onlineaimed at ~5 credits of learning timerequire ~£30,000 to develop, or more

The economics of teaching and learning in HE

Preparation of curriculum and resources

Adaptive systems: field trips, lab sessions, simulations, models

Expositions: lectures, study guides, slides, podcasts, videos

Formative assessment: feedback from peers, digital systems

Readings: books, papers, websites, pdfs

Collaborations: projects, workshops, role play simulations, wikis

Peer group discussion: seminars, discussion forums

Formative assessment: tutor feedback offline, feedback online

Tutored discussion: tutorials, small groups, discussion forums

Summative assessment: exams, essays, designs, performance

Support for students learning

Fixed cost

Variable cost

What it takes to teach online

Teaching time/student 50 500 5000Guided MOOC 20 hrs 200 hrs 2000 hrsBasic MOOC 0.00 0.00 0.00

50 500 50000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Duke MOOCBasic MOOC

30 300 30000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Duke MOOCBasic MOOC

Total teaching time

Preparation time = 420 hrs

Basic MOOC: peer support, no tutor supportGuided MOOC: tutors monitor and join discussions, react to problems, redesign quizzes, post updates

Prep time = 420

Based on Duke University Report 2012

The variable cost of high quality teaching does not achieve economies of scale if you maintain the same pedagogy

Guided MOOC

Basic MOOC

“to inspire and enable individuals to develop their capabilities to the highest potential levels throughout life” [Dearing 1997]

The cruel myths of the MOOC model

“Content will be free”“MOOCs will make HE accessible to the boy in a Cairo slum”“A piece of s/w can understand exactly how a student learns which the teacher cannot do”

And the worrying fantasies:“A lot of what you teach is not viable to charge for because the machine will do it better”

“No.1 pushback from investors was they did not understand why it needed to be accredited because no-one will care”

“Many academics are happy to donate time because of the reach of MOOCs” “$100m venture capital – to share tuition revenue”“Coursera model has 3 income streams: certification (not accredited), employers pay, other institutions pay”

[Goldman Sachs MOOC debate Nov 2012]

“A MOOC with 50,000 students is worth a paper in Nature”[Royal Flemish Academy of Science and Arts, Thinker in Residence, Feb

2014]

The realities of the MOOC model

Education is not a mass delivery industryContent is not free Teaching is also guidance, support, evaluationEducation is a client-centred industryThere is no valid business model for MOOCs

‘Massive’ courses are inevitable if open to all and free‘Open to all’ means no prior qualifications a different curriculum and pedagogy‘Online’ courses have been perfected over many years by the OU and others‘Courses’ imply student readiness, defined outcomes, and assessment against them

MOOCs are parasitic on university teaching paid for by undergraduatesThe pedagogic innovation required for effectiveness has attracted little investmentThe dominant users are highly qualified professionalsUndergraduates need guidance, support, nurturing, which is labour intensiveAchieving high-level concepts and skills requires intensive study and guidanceAcademic study is hard – the ‘flipped classroom’ requires extensive careful design

“education is not content acquisition because education is a curated guided experience” [Martin Bean, VC, OU]

“the delivery of content is going to be relegated to online [so] people can do it on their own time…interacting with the material rather than just sitting there taking notes” [Daphne Koller, Davos World Forum 2014]

The reality of current teaching models

The system isn’t broken“Student satisfaction at a nine-year high” [HEFCE August 2013]Assessment and feedback still scores lowest at 72%

Balancing the benefits and costs

It’s important to understand the link between the pedagogical benefits and teaching time costs of online learning – especially for the large-scale

What are the new digital pedagogies that will address the 1:25 student guidance conundrum? How to shift variable cost support to fixed cost support?

Can we develop a viable business model that will make HE more effective and affordable for undergraduates?

Conceal answers to questionAsk for user-constructed input Show multiple answers/commentsAsk student to improve answer

Concealed MCQs

The (virtual) Keller Plan

The vicarious master class

Pyramid discussion groups

Pedagogies for supporting large classes

Tutorial for 5 representative studentsQuestions and guidance represent all students’ needs

240 individual students produce response to open questionPairs compare and produce joint responseGroups of 4 compare and produce joint response and post as one of 10 responses...6 groups of 40 students vote on best responseTeacher receives 6 responses to comment on

Introduce contentSelf-paced practiceTutor-marked testStudent becomes tutor for creditUntil half class is tutoring the rest

Pedagogies for supporting large classes

Concealed MCQs

The (virtual) Keller Plan

The vicarious master class

Pyramid discussion groups

Laurillard, 2002

Keller, 1974

Mayes et al, 2001

Gibbs et al, 1992

The traditional pedagogies for large classes could be redesigned as digital formats

The roles and capabilities of technology

How is accessibility improved?Internet gives wide access to best lecture/presentationsEducation comes to the studentAsynchronous presentation allows self-pacingTechnology provides support tools for disabilities

Fixed, amortisedVariable, geared

AcquisitionInquiryDiscussionPracticeProduction

Categories

Quality contentLocalisationSelf-pacingAdaptivity

Why should pedagogy improve?Quality of presentation is improved by multimedia featuresAccessibility of resources aids inquiry learningAsynchronous discussion increases the ratio of student:staff talkUsing digital models (microworlds) recruits natural learning skillsDesign tools motivate the articulation of what has been learned

How would costs be reduced?Expensive production costs can be amortised over large numbersShift to interactive feedback reduces variable costs

What it takes to teach with technology

The teaching workload is increasing in terms of Planning for how students will learn in the mix of the physical, digital and social learning spaces designed for themCurating and adapting existing content resourcesDesigning activities and resources for all types of active learning Personalised and adaptive teaching that improve traditional methodsProviding flexibility in blended learning optionsGuiding and nurturing large cohorts of studentsUsing learning technologies to improve scale AND outcomes

BUT: Institutions and teachers do not typically plan for the teaching workload implied by these learning benefitsnor for the need to collaborate to innovate with technology

“…higher education – whether it is delivered online or face-to-face – needs to keep honouring its higher aim, to give graduates both work-related skills and means for self expression”. [Prof Gianpiero Petrigieri, Davos World Forum 2014]

Browse Adopt

Adapt Create

Review

Redesign

Test

Publish

The design cycle for teaching

Feedback - learner time

Redesign

Feedback - teacher time

Redesign

Feedback- learning

types

Redesign

Building teaching community knowledge

Make links to existing content

resources

Redesign existing content

resources?

Build on others’ tested designs

Browse Adopt

Adapt Create

Review

Redesign

Test

Publish

Similar to the design cycle for science

Building scientific knowledge

What is the teaching design

equivalent of the journal paper?

The Learning Designer: Browse

The Learning Designer: Adopt(interpreting a Tudor portrait)

Details of: learning context, topic, aims, outcomes, student numbers, duration

Details of the pedagogy: types of learning activity,

group size, teacher presence, attached urls, duration,

student guidance

Analysis of the learning experience calculated

dynamically

The Learning Designer: Adapt(experimental design for Psychology)

Note the designed time is much greater

than the allotted time

Every section of the learning design can be

edited, and new resources attached

Analysis of the learning experience adapts to

your edits

The Learning Designer: Review(Business planning for engineers)

Notes for additional comments

Reviews and comments could be student

evaluations

Additional pane for Reviewer to add comments according to criteria ‘Test of outcome?

Alignment? Feedback? Technology?

Browse Adopt

Adapt Create

Review

Redesign

Test

Publish

Teaching as a design cycle

Building learning technology knowledge

Question: What is the teaching design equivalent of the journal paper?

Answer:A learning design that can be reviewed, adapted, improved, published, reused…

Analysing teacher workload(the Course Resource Appraisal Model CRAM)

Run No. of studentsRun 1 15Run 2 20Run 3 20

Run 1 Run 2 Run 3Students 15 20 20Profit -£27k £4k £11k

Details of: credit hours, cohort size, income,

teacher costs, types of learning and teaching, online and f2f, time for prep and for support

Learning experienceTeacher preparation time

Teaching support time

Analysing teacher workload(the Course Resource Appraisal Model CRAM)

Run No. of studentsRun 1 15Run 2 20Run 3 20

Run 1 Run 2 Run 3Students 15 20 20Profit -£27k £4k £11k

Run No. of studentsRun 1 15Run 2 30Run 3 60

Run 1 Run 2 Run 3Students 15 30 60Profit -£27k £11k £38k

What does this mean for the ‘basic maths’?

• If we are not careful to understand the variable costs of teaching (and other) support, then using online to scale up will be unmanageable

• We need large student numbers to offset the high production costs of the ‘flipped classroom’ (and high visibility teaching)

Teaching as a Design Science: Building pedagogical patterns for learning and technology (Routledge, 2012)

d.laurillard@ioe.ac.uk

http://web.lkldev.ioe.ac.uk/LD/ http://

buildingcommunityknowledge.wordpress.com

Further details…

http://bit.ly/1cqiIK1

Issues for discussion?

What proportion of an academic’s time should be spent on

teaching innovation?

What is the role of the professoriate in helping to develop a

vision for the future of academic teaching?

Is there an ethically robust and academically viable model

for the future of HE?

The MOOC opinion-formers

Daphne Koller, Professor of computer science at Stanford and co-founder of online university course provider Coursera “I think the delivery of content is going to be relegated to the online format, [so] people can do it on their own time…interacting with the material rather than just sitting there and taking notes. ” [Davos World Forum 2014]

Louis Hyman, Professor of History at Cornell“Whether they build their own content or draw on an existing MOOC, professors can off-load content to on-line formats and spend face-to-face time interacting with students… Universities will not be destroyed, only lectures, and in their demise better conversations will happen.” [the ‘flipped classroom’]

Jonathan Rees, Professor of History at Colorado State“Coursera isn’t offering MOOC content directly to professors. They’re marketing it to administrations who will need to find a financial justification for their very expensive MOOC content purchases.”