Announcements…•The end of the quarter is this Friday

▫Check your grades online▫Turn in any missing assignments

•Quiz Friday--Voting▫Expect a study guide on Wednesday▫If you are not going to be here on Friday—

you will need to make up the quiz when you come back from spring break

▫This quiz may or may not be included on the end-of-quarter grades. Assume that it will be.

Poll•Survey of public

▫a questioning of the population or of a representative sample to tally opinions or gather other information

Issue Poll•Survey and measurement of the public on

a particular issue

Favorability Polls •Measuring the quality or degree of being

viewed favorably or positively

Margin of Error•Statistic expressing the amount of

random sampling error in a survey's results▫The larger the margin of error, the less

faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures

Public OpinionHow is it formed?

Public opinion

•Attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of government and politics▫Public opinions▫Opinions of different publics

Multiple Publics•Not many issues capture the attention of

all—or even nearly all—Americans

Multiple Publics•Public opinion includes only those views

that relate to public affairs▫Politics▫Public issues▫Making of public policies

Public Opinion•Must involve something of general

concern and of interest to a significant portion of the people as a whole

Expression

•Oral▫Town Hall Meetings on health care reform

Expression•Written

Expression •Protest demonstration

Expression•Film

Fahrenheit 911 Trailer

Expression•Billboard

Expression•Vote for or against a candidate

Influences/political socialization

▫ Family Children first see the world from the family’s eyes

▫Fundamental attitudes Authority and rules of behavior Property Neighbors People of other races/religions

▫ Education Teach children the values of the American political

system▫ Age, race, income, occupation, residence, group

affiliations, etc.▫ Mass media▫ Peer groups▫ Opinion leaders▫ Historic events

Measuring Public Opinion

In general:•Voting•Lobbying•Books•Pamphlets•Magazines/newspapers•Editorial comments•Paid advertisements•Letters to editors, public officials

•Means don’t tell much about:▫Size of the group▫How strong the opinion is

Elections•Vote for candidates•Not always accurate measures of public

opinion▫Why are people voting?▫Agreeing with every plank▫Vague positions

Interest Groups•Private organizations

▫Members share certain views▫Work to shape the making and the content

of public policy•How many people does an interest group

represent? How strong are the positions?

Media•“Mirrors” and “molders” of public opinion•Editorials, syndicated columns, news

magazines, TV commercials…•Often reflect only the view of the vocal

minority

Personal Contacts•Public officials use to keep in touch with

large numbers of people▫Job is to “read” the public’s mind

•Some are quite accurate•Others are not

▫Only find what they want to find

Polls: The Best Measure•Collect information by asking people

questions•Accurate polls are based in scientific

polling techniques

Straw Votes•Ask a large number of people the same

question•Highly unreliable

▫Nothing in the process ensures that those who respond will represent a reasonable accurate cross section of a total population

▫Quantity rather than quality

Polling: A Scientific Process•Define the universe

▫-who makes up the population?•Construct a sample

▫Poll everyone in a small group▫Random sample

Law of probability▫Quota sample

Deliberately constructed to reflect population Less reliable

Study Guide: Chapters to review• Political Parties and Campaigns

▫ Ms. Berndt’s assignments• History of Voting

▫ 6.1, 6.3• Voter Qualifications

▫ Basically—who can vote?▫ How has this changed?

• Voter Behavior and Apathy; How people vote▫ 6.4

• PSAs: basic info from PPT• Voter disenfranchisement/suffrage

▫ 6.3, suffrage worksheet• Elections: basic ideas that we have talked about in class• Electoral College

▫ 13.5

Preparing Valid Questions•Wording

▫Try not to use “loaded” terms▫Try not to shape answers

Interviewing•Face-to-face or telephone/mail•Same techniques must be used •Pollster’s appearance•Wording

Emotional reactions “ought to” answer

Analyze and Report Findings•Computers and other technologies

Evaluating Polls•Difficult to measure

▫Intensity▫Stability▫Relevance

•Bandwagon effect

Limits•Major—but not only—influence•U.S. constitutional government

▫Does not give free, unrestricted power to public opinion, or even majority opinion

▫Separation of powers, checks and balances Protect minority interests

•Not elections