Annex1 - Economic Factors

8/14/2019 Annex1 - Economic Factors

1/9

Page 8

ANNEX 1ECONOMIC FACTORS

Third Quarter 2009

HighlightsPosted 26 November 2009

Economy fragile at 0.8 percent GDP growth

While some sectors are showing definitive signs of recovery from the global crisis, the domestic

economy remains fragile, as GDP grew by 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009 from 4.6 percent last

year and a revised 0.8 percent in the second quarter. The decelerated economic growth benefited from

Trade, Finance, Mining & Quarrying, Private Services, and Government Services sectors but was

adversely affected by the third consecutive quarter of decline in the Manufacturing Sector.

On the demand side, growth came mainly from consumption by both Households and Government andfrom Merchandise Imports which have mildly recovered from the slump in the first quarter of the year.

The continued inflow of remittances from our overseas workers buttressed the NFIA, which went up by

26.0 percent from 22.6 percent last year, and pushed GNP to grow by 3.5 percent from 6.2 percent in

2008.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of the GDP grew by 1.0 percent lower than the 1.7 percent in the

previous quarter. However, the seasonally adjusted GNP accelerated to 2.2 percent from 1.9 percent in

the second quarter of 2009.

On the production side, Services propped up the economy with a 4.0 percent growth, modest butindicating a continuously improving growth since the global financial crisis. Likewise, AFF posted a

lackluster growth of 1.6 percent but industry continues to be dogged by the crisis, declining by 4.4

percent, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1998.

As population reached an estimated 92.4 million, per capita GDP declined by 1.2 percent from 2.5

percent in the previous year while per capita GNP decelerated to 1.5 percent from 4.2 percent. On the

other hand, Per capita PCE slowed down with a 2.0 percent growth from 2.4 percent.

With the continued demand for the services of our OFWs, Compensation Inflow registered 19.3 percent

growth, a slight decrease from last years 22.3 percent. Property Income has been posting double-digit

declines since Q2 2008 but the decline of 30.7 percent in Q3 2009 is lower than the 43.6 percent decline

registered in Q3 2008. On the other hand, Property Expense continued to plummet with a 13.4 percentcontraction from negative 8.1 percent last year. As a result, net factor income from abroad grew by 26.0

percent from 22.6 percent in 2008.

At current prices, the per capita GNP now stands at P23,097 or US$479.7 for the third quarter.


2/9

Page 9

Third Quarter 2009

Gross National Product & Gross Domestic Product

by Industrial Origin

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN:

3rd Quarter 2008 and 3rd Quarter 2009AT CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1985 PRICES, IN MILLION PESOS

At Current Prices

INDUSTRY/INDUSTRY GROUP 3rd Qtr 2008 3rd Qtr 2009Growth Rate

(%)

AGRI.FISHERY,FORESTRY 262,160 258,173 -1.5

INDUSTRY SECTOR 600,812 562,146 -6.4

SERVICE SECTOR 990,467 1,051,391 6.2

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1,853,440 1,871,709 1.0

Net factor income

from the rest of the world209,295 263,532

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 2,062,735 2,135,242 3.5

At Constant Prices

INDUSTRY/INDUSTRY GROUP 3rd Qtr 2008 3rd Qtr 2009Growth Rate

(%)

AGRI.FISHERY,FORESTRY 58,006 58,913 1.6

INDUSTRY SECTOR 117,166 112,053 -4.4

SERVICE SECTOR 168,611 175,440 4.0

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 343,784 346,405 0.8

Net factor income

from the rest of the world41,279 52,017

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 385,063 398,422 3.5
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009nfia3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ser3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009ind3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009aff3.asp


3/9

Page

10

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN:

Annual 2008 and 2007

AT CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1985 PRICES, IN MILLION PESOS

INDUSTRY

AT CURRENT PRICES AT CONSTANT PRICES

2007 2008

Growth

Rate

(%)

2007 2008

Growth

Rate

(%)

AGRI.FISHERY,FORESTRY 943,250 1,102,756 16.9 251,311 259,406 3.2

INDUSTRY SECTOR 2,098,170 2,349,426 12.0 443,067 465,017 5.0

SERVICE SECTOR 3,605,918 3,971,031 10.1 672,115 694,529 3.3

GROSS DOMESTICPRODUCT 6,647,338 7,423,213 11.7 1,366,493 1,418,952 3.8

Net factor income from

the rest of the world129,098 168,845

GROSS NATIONAL

PRODUCT7,227,312 8,250,249 14.2 1,495,591 1,587,797 6.2

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

Posted: 26 November 2009.


4/9

Page

11

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY EXPENDITURE SHARES:

3rd Quarter 2008 and 3rd Quarter 2009

AT CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1985 PRICES, IN MILLION PESOS

At Current Prices

TYPE OF EXPENDITURE 3rd Qtr 2008 3rd Qtr 2009 Growth Rate(%)

1. Personal Consumption Expenditure 1,332,510 1,370,131 2.8

2.Government Consumption 182,082 206,493 13.4

3. Capital Formation 292,707 251,873 -14.0

4. Exports 748,024 637,056 -14.8

5. Less : Imports 818,739 628,486 -23.2

6. Statistical Discrepancy 116,856 34,642

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1,853,440 1,871,709 1.0

Net factor income from the rest of the world 209,295 263,532

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 2,062,735 2,135,242 3.5

At Constant 1985 Prices

TYPE OF EXPENDITURE 3rd Qtr 2008 3rd Qtr 2009Growth Rate

(%)

1. Personal Consumption Expenditure 269,923 280,731 4.0

2.Government Consumption 23,463 25,310 7.9

3. Capital Formation 62,226 55,200 -11.3

4.Exports 196,992 170,111 -13.6

5. Less :Imports 172,164 172,567 0.2

6. Statistical Discrepancy -36,657 -12,380

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 343,784 346,405 0.8

Net factor income from the rest of the world 41,279 52,017

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 385,063 398,422 3.5

MEMORANDUM ITEMS: Trading gain (loss) from changes

in the terms of trade-41,368 4,775

Gross National Income 343,698 403,197
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009imp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009exp3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009cap3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009gce3.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2009/3rdQ2009/2009pce3.asp


5/9


6/9

Page

13

PER CAPITA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,

and PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

3rd Quarter 2008 and 3rd Quarter 2009

AT CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1985 PRICES, IN PESOS

TYPE OF EXPENDITURE 3rd Qtr 2008 3rd Qtr 2009Growth Rate

(%)

A. Estimates in current pesos

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 20,440 20,246 -0.9

2. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 22,748 23,097 1.5

3. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE 14,695 14,821 0.9

B. Estimates in constant (1985) pesos

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 3,791 3,747 -1.2



C. Population* (million persons) 90.68 92.45

* - The quarterly estimates were interpolated from the 2000, 2005 and 2010 midyear estimates from the 2000 census-based

population projections using the Waring-Langrange interpolation polynomial.

PER CAPITA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,

and PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

Annual 2008 and 2007

AT CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1985 PRICES, IN PESOSITEM 2007 2008

Growth Rate

(%)

A. Estimates in current pesos

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 74,936 82,063 9.5



B. Estimates in constant (1985) pesos

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 15,405 15,686 1.8



C. Population*

(million persons)88.71 90.46


7/9

Page

14

Drop in the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to slow down

in the fourth quarter

(PR-201001-ES4-01, Posted 08 January 2010)

The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) slid further to negative 0.640 in the fourth

quarter of 2009 from a revised negative 0.570 in the third quarter. However, the descent of theindex continued to decelerate confirming earlier signs of the gradual recovery of the economy

from the global crisis. Not to be forgotten though are the damages brought by typhoons Ondoy

and Pepeng in the last quarter of 2009, which have not been reflected in the latest LEI.

Figure 1 below shows the direction of the composite LEI vis--vis the movement of the cycle

component of the reference series - the Non-Agriculture gross value added (GVA).

Figure 1. Composite leading economic indicator (LEI) versus

the Non-Agriculture GVA cycle:

Q3 1986 to Q4 2009

The number of positive contributors as concurrently estimated in this period climbed to seven,

from three in Q1 2009 and Q2 2009, and four in Q3 2009. The positive contributors, startingwith the largest positive contributor, were: consumer price index, money supply, electric energy

consumption, tourist arrivals, total merchandise imports, number of new businesses, and

wholesale price index. Despite the increase in the number of positive contributors, their

contribution remains low at 34.1 percent from 32.0 percent in the third quarter.

The negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were: stock price

index, terms of trade index, hotel occupancy rate, and foreign exchange rate, and terms of trade

index. The negative contributors still outweigh the positive contributors, accounting for 65.9

percent share of total contribution.


8/9

Page

15

The contribution of each of the eleven (11) indicators is measured through the combined effects

of 1) the direction (the slope or change) of the cycle component of each indicator; and 2) thecorrelation of their cycle components with that of the reference series.

Table 1 highlights the composite LEI estimates and the corresponding slopes for first quarter

2001 to fourth quarter 2009.

Table 1: Composite Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)

First Quarter 2001 to Fourth Quarter 2009

Indicator Composite LEI Slope

2001 Q1 (0.144) (0.097)

Q2 (0.172) (0.029)

Q3 (0.190) (0.018)

Q4 (0.286) (0.096)

2002 Q1 (0.363) (0.077)

Q2 (0.268) 0.095

Q3 (0.117) 0.151

Q4 (0.086) 0.031

2003 Q1 (0.122) (0.036)

Q2 (0.179) (0.057)

Q3 (0.260) (0.081)

Q4 (0.254) 0.006

2004 Q1 (0.182) 0.072

Q2 (0.147) 0.035

Q3 (0.103) 0.044

Q4 (0.056) 0.047

2005 Q1 (0.057) (0.001)

Q2 (0.047) 0.010

Q3 (0.009) 0.037

Q4 0.011 0.020

2006 Q1 0.031 0.021Q2 0.055 0.024

Q3 0.062 0.007

Q4 0.095 0.033

2007 Q1 0.135 0.039

Q2 0.181 0.046


9/9

Page

16

Q3 0.281 0.100

Q4 0.454 0.172

2008 Q1 0.591 0.137

Q2 0.611 0.020

Q3 0.482 (0.129)

Q4 0.256 (0.226)

2009 Q1 (0.036) (0.292)

Q2 (0.359) (0.323)

Q3 (0.570) (0.211)

Q4 (0.640) (0.070)

Details of the LEI computation procedure, information about the component leading indicators,

and limitations on the methodology and latest data are available at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei

under the Technical Notes section.

ROMULO A. VIROLA

Secretary General
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei/default.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei/default.asphttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei/default.asp

Annex1 - Economic Factors

Documents

Transcript of Annex1 - Economic Factors