Annex B 1 Annex B 2: Timor-Leste Selected Indicators* of...

ANNEX B

Annex B 1

Annex B 2: Timor-Leste Selected Indicators* of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management

As of Date 05/17/2005 Indicator 2002 2003 2004 2005Portfolio AssessmentNumber of Projects Under Implementation a 10 11 8 8Average Implementation Period (years) b 1.2 1.6 2.5 2.9Percent of Problem Projects by Number a, c 0.0 36.4 0.0 0.0Percent of Problem Projects by Amount a, c 0.0 45.2 0.0 0.0Percent of Projects at Risk by Number a, d 30.0 54.5 12.5 0.0Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount a, d 26.1 74.8 12.5 0.0Disbursement Ratio (%) e 34.5 33.8 45.5 40.9Portfolio ManagementCPPR during the year (yes/no)Supervision Resources (total US$)Average Supervision (US$/project)

Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYsProj Eval by OED by Number 4 4Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 0.0 0.0% of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number 25.0 25.0% of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt 0.0 0.0

a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY).b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio.c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP).d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program.e. Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the beginning of the year: Investment projects only.* All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio, which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year.

70

Annex B 3.1

Annex B 3.1: Proposed IBRD/IDA Base-Case Program

As of Date 5/17/2005

Fiscal year Proj ID US$(M) Strategic Rewards b (H/M/L)

Implementation b Risks (H/M/L)

2005 EC-Funded Health Program 8.0Result 8.0

2006 Consolidation Support Program I 1.0

ED-Funded Agriculture Program 12.0

Planning & Financial Management Capacity Building Program 12.0

Result 25.0

2007 Education for All Fast Track Initiative 10.0

Energy Service Delivery 5.0

Consolidation Support Program II 1.0

Result 16.0

2008 Consolidation Support Program III 1.0

GEF & BCF Natural Resource Mgt.

Result 1.0

2009 GEF & CDCF Energy

Result 0.0

Overall Result 50.0

71

Annex B 3.2

Annex B 3.2: Timor-Leste - IFC and MIGA Program

FY 2002-2005

Annex B 3

2002 2003 2004 2005

IFC approvals (US$m)

Sector (%)

Investment instrument(%)

MIGA guarantees (US$m)

72

Annex B 4

Annex B 4: Timor-Leste - Summary of Nonlending Services As of 05/15/2005

Product Completion FY Audience a Objective b

Recent CompletionsPolicy Notes 2001 G, D, B KG, PSTA: Anti-Corruption Initiatives 2001 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Central Fiscal Authority Computerization 2001 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Leadership and Capacity Building 2001 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Social Development National Dialogue 2001 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSCountry Economic Memorandum 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPublic Expenditure Management & Accountability Note 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSStrategy for Housing 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: FALINTIL Reinsertion Assistance 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Gender Networking and Local Governance 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Poverty Monitoring 2002 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSCountry Procurement Assessment Review 2003 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSEducation Sector Study 2003 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPoverty Assessment 2001 2003 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: GDLN Training Needs Assessment 2003 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPublic Expenditure Review 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Supporting Transition to Admin. Independence 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Civil Society Capacity Building 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Energy Sector Review 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Registration of Armed Veterans 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTransport Sector Review 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PS

OngoingStrengthening the Institutions of Governance 2004 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSDefining a Policy for Veterans 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Administrative Capacity Building 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Budget Planning Exercise 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Household Survey 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Youth Leadership for Economic Development 2005 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSHealth Sector Review 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPrivate and Financial Sector Assessment 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSLabor Market Study 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Strengthening Capacity for Poverty Analysis 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Strengthening Public Expenditure Management 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Registration of Civilian Veterans 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPoverty Assessment 2006 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Institution Building of the Inspector General 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Institutional Development of the Ombudsman 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Supervision of ESMAP Rural Power Mapping 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Supervision of PPIAF Review of Power Sector 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Institution Building for Veterans Policy 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Public Expenditure Management and Procurement 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PS

PlannedBudget and Expenditure Analysis 2006-8 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSDoing Business in Timor-Leste 2006-8 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSHousehold Fuel Study 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSPolicy Note on Population Growth 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSYouth: Challenges and Options 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Governance 2006 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSRural Growth Strategy 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: FIRST Credit and Collateral Registry 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: PPIAF Phase II Power Regulatory Framework 2007 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSService Delivery for the Poor 2008 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSIDF: Strengthening Capacity for Poverty Monitoring 2008 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PSTA: Business Environment 2008 G, D, B, P KG, PB, PS

____________a. Government (G), Donor (D), Bank (B), Public Dissemination (PD).b. Knowledge generation (KG), public debate (PB), problem-solving (PS).

73

Annex B 5

Annex B 5: Timor-Leste Social Indicators

Latest single year Same region/income group

EastAsia & Low-

1970-75 1980-85 1997-2003 Pacific income

POPULATION Total population, mid-year (millions) 0.67 0.66 0.88 1,854.6 2,311.9 Growth rate (% annual average for period) 2.1 2.5 0.6 1.0 1.9Urban population (% of population) 8.9 8.2 7.7 39.1 30.4Total fertility rate (births per woman) 6.2 .. 7.6 2.1 3.7

POVERTY(% of population)National headcount index .. .. 39.7 .. .. Urban headcount index .. .. 25.0 .. .. Rural headcount index .. .. 45.0 .. ..

INCOMEGNI per capita (US$) .. .. 460 1,070 440Consumer price index (1995=100) .. .. .. .. ..Food price index (1995=100) .. .. .. .. ..

INCOME/CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTIONGini index .. .. .. .. ..Lowest quintile (% of income or consumption) .. .. .. .. ..Highest quintile (% of income or consumption) .. .. .. .. ..

SOCIAL INDICATORSPublic expenditure Health (% of GDP) .. .. 6.2 1.9 1.5 Education (% of GDP) .. .. .. 3.2 3.2 Social security and welfare (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. ..Net primary school enrollment rate(% of age group) Total .. .. 72 93 77 Male .. .. 43 .. .. Female .. .. 39 .. ..Access to an improved water source(% of population) Total .. .. 52 78 75 Urban .. .. 73 92 89 Rural .. .. 51 69 70Immunization rate(% of children ages 12-23 months) Measles .. .. 60 82 65 DPT .. .. 70 86 67Child malnutrition (% under 5 years) .. .. 43 15 44Life expectancy at birth(years) Total .. .. 62 70 58 Male .. .. 60 68 57 Female .. .. 64 71 59Mortality Infant (per 1,000 live births) .. .. 87 32 80 Under 5 (per 1,000 live births) .. .. 124 41 123 Adult (15-59) Male (per 1,000 population) .. .. .. 179 319 Female (per 1,000 population) .. .. .. 122 268 Maternal (modeled, per 100,000 live births) .. .. 660 .. ..Births attended by skilled health staff (%) .. .. 24 91 ..

Note: 0 or 0.0 means zero or less than half the unit shown. Net enrollment rate: break in series between 1997 and 1998 due tochange from ISCED76 to ISCED97. Immunization: refers to children ages 12-23 months who received vaccinations before oneyear of age.

World Development Indicators database March 2005, World Bank

74

Annex B 6.1

Annex B 6.1: Timor-Leste – Key Economic Indicators

As of date 03/08/2004

Est.Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

National accounts (as % GDP at current market prices)

Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Agriculture .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Industry .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Services .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Total Consumption 121.8 118.9 129.8 127.9 126.9 128.9 .. ..Gross domestic fixed 41.0 42.0 36.0 31.0 27.0 28.0 32.0 33.0investment a/

Government investment b/ 6.4 3.2 4.3 2.9 1.7 5.0 5.4 6.9Private investment c/ 34.6 38.8 31.7 28.1 25.3 23.0 26.6 26.1(includes increase instocks)

Exports (Goods) d/ 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0Imports (Goods) e/ 65.0 62.0 68.0 61.0 56.0 60.0 60.0 59.0

Gross domestic savings -21.8 -18.9 -29.8 -27.9 -26.9 -28.9 .. ..Gross national savings -34.0 -27.0 -38.0 -29.0 9.0 26.0 23.0 29.0

Memorandum itemsGross domestic product 316.0 368.0 343.0 336.0 331.0 326.0 327.0 342.0(US$ million at current prices)Gross national product per 400 470 430 420 550 .. .. ..capita (US$, Atlas method)

Real annual growth rates (%, calculated from 2000 prices)

Gross domestic product at 15.4 16.6 -6.7 -6.2 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.1market pricesGross Domestic Income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Real annual per capita growth rates (%, calculated from 2000 prices)

Gross domestic product at 20.9 12.0 -11.4 -11.0 -2.0 .. .. ..market pricesTotal consumption .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Private consumption .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

(Continued)

ProjectedActual

75

Annex B 6.1

Key Economic Indicators (Continued)

Est.Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Balance of Payments (US$m)

Exports (GNFS) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Merchandise FOB 5.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

Imports (GNFS) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Merchandise FOB 206.0 227.0 233.0 205.0 186.0 197.0 194.0 198.0

Resource balance -253.0 -273.0 -280.0 -244.0 -212.0 -217.0 -213.0 -216.0 Net foreign income f/ 2.0 5.0 6.0 3.0 28.0 51.0 Net current transfers g/ 315.0 343.0 314.0 262.0 299.0 286.0 .. .. (including official current transfers) Current account balance h/ 64.0 75.0 40.0 21.0 115.0 121.0 67.0 74.0 (before official capital grants) Current account balance 118.0 132.0 96.0 67.0 154.0 191.0 .. .. (after official capital grants)

Financial accounts -109.0 -127.0 -82.0 -47.0 -32.0 -29.0 .. .. Long-term loans (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Official 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Private 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other capital (net, including 7.0 3.0 6.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 errors and omissions) Change in foreign assets -16.0 -8.0 -20.0 -18.0 -122.0 -162.0 -142.0 -158.0

Memorandum itemsResource balance (% of -80.1 -74.2 -81.6 -72.6 -64.0 -66.6 -65.1 -63.2GDP at current marketprices)Real annual growth rates ( 1995 prices) Merchandise exports .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. (FOB)

Primary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Manufactures .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Merchandise imports .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. (CIF)

Public finance (as % of GDP at current market prices) i/ Current revenues j/ 17.2 15.2 24.0 31.6 93.7 60.4 70.6 66.6 Current expenditures 8.7 11.6 16.6 18.7 20.0 22.1 22.8 22.6

(Continued)

ProjectedActual

76

Annex B 6.1

Key Economic Indicators (Continued)

Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Current account surplus (+) 8.5 3.6 7.4 12.9 73.7 38.3 47.8 44.0 or deficit (-) Capital expenditure 6.4 3.2 4.3 2.9 1.7 5.0 5.4 6.9 Foreign financing k/ 9.2 6.4 9.6 10.4 9.4 3.1 3.0 2.8

Monetary indicators M2/GDP (at current market 6.3 13.9 15.9 21.5 25.4 28.1 .. .. prices) l/ Growth of M2 (%) .. 155.0 7.1 32.4 16.2 9.2 .. .. Credit/Deposits 1.5 5.9 9.4 30.6 83.9 .. .. .. Deposits/GDP 6.3 13.9 15.9 21.5 25.3 .. .. ..

Price indices( 1995 =100) Merchandise export price .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. index Merchandise import price .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. index Merchandise terms of trade .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. index Real exchange rate .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. (US$/LCU)f Real interest rates Consumer price index 3.0 -0.3 9.5 4.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 (% growth rate) GDP deflator 3.4 -0.2 0.0 4.2 -0.8 -6.5 -2.7 1.4 (% growth rate)

a. Excludes investment in the oil/gas sector.b. Capital expenditures in the central government budget, the Consolidated Fund for East Timor (CFET)c. Gross investment minus government capital expendituresd. Merchandise exports. Excludes oil/gas revenues, which are recorded under the income account (royalties)

and transfers (tax revenues).e. CMerchandise imports. Includes international-assistance related import of goods.f. Includes oil/gas royalty and interestg. Includes oil/gas tax revenues and international assistanceh. Includes international assistancei. Consolidated Fund for East Timor (CFET); on basis of fiscal year (June - July).j. Consists of domestic revenues, oil/gas revenues, and foreign grants.k. Foreign grants are treated as revenues in the CFETl. Broad money (end-of-period). Excludes currency holdings by the public, on which no data are available.f. “LCU” denotes “local currency units.” An increase in US$/LCU denotes appreciation.

Actual Estimate Projected

77

Annex B 6.2

Annex B 6.2: Timor-Leste – Country Selected Indicators Table

Base-case (most likely) projection

Est.2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Part A: Main Macro Aggregates

Annual growth rates, calculated from constant 2000 price data GDP (mp) per capita 20.9 12.0 -11.4 -11.0 -2.0 .. .. .. Total consumption per capita .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

GDP at market prices 15.4 16.6 -6.7 -6.2 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total consumption .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Private consumption .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gross domestic investment (GDI) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gross dom. Fixed investment (GDFI) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Exports (GNFS) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. of which Goods .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Imports (GNFS) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. of which Goods .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Savings-investment balances, as percentage of GDP Gross Domestic investment 41.0 42.0 36.0 31.0 27.0 28.0 32.0 33.0 of which Government investment (capital 6.4 3.2 4.3 2.9 1.7 5.0 5.4 6.9

Foreign savings 75.0 69.0 74.0 60.0 18.0 2.0 9.0 4.0 Gross national savings -34.0 -27.0 -38.0 -29.0 9.0 26.0 23.0 29.0 Government savings .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Non government savings .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross domestic savings -21.8 -18.9 -29.8 -27.9 -26.9 -28.9 .. ..

Other GDP inflation 3.4 -0.2 0.0 4.2 -0.8 -6.5 -2.7 1.4 Annual average exchange rate (LCU/US$) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Index real average exchange rate ( =100) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Terms of trade index ( =100) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Incremental capital-output ratio (GDI based .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Import elasticity with respect to GDP .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Money growth .. 155.0 7.1 32.4 16.2 9.2 .. ..

Part B: Government Finance Indicators

Percentage of GDP Total revenues, of which 17.2 15.2 24.0 31.6 93.7 60.4 70.6 66.6 Domestic revenues 4.1 5.8 5.7 8.8 10.1 9.7 9.9 9.8 Oil/gas revenues 3.8 3.0 8.7 12.4 74.3 47.6 57.7 54.0 Total expenditures, of which 15.0 14.8 20.8 21.7 21.7 27.0 28.2 29.5 Recurrent expenditure 8.7 11.6 16.6 18.7 20.0 22.1 22.8 22.6 Deficit(-)/Surplus(+) (by FY) 2.2 0.4 3.1 10.0 72.0 33.4 42.3 37.1

ProjectedActual

78

Annex B 6.2

Country Selected Indicators Table (Continued)

Annex B 6

Est.2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Financing (Central Govt Budget, by FY): .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Foreign (grants reported as revenues) 9.2 6.4 9.6 10.4 9.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 Monetary sector .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Other domestic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other Total Debt/GDPmp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total interest payments/Tax revenues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Part C: Debt & Liquidity Indicators

Total DOD and TDS DOD (US$ millions) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DOD / GDPmp ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TDS (US$ millions) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TDS / exports (XGS) ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross foreign assets 6.0 24.0 44.0 61.0 183.0 345.0 487.0 645.0 Part D: External Financing Plan

(US$, millions) International assistance (current transfers 303 327 291 224 178 129 97 87 Official capital grants 54.0 57.0 56.0 46.0 39.0 70.0 .. .. Financial accounts (net) -109.0 -127.0 -82.0 -47.0 -32.0 -29.0 .. .. Net Long term borrowing excl IMF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjustments to scheduled debt service 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 All other capital flows 7.0 3.0 6.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financing Requirements (incl IMF) of which current account deficit -239.0 -252.0 -252.0 -203.0 -63.0 -8.0 -30.0 -13.0

(before international assistance)

ProjectedActual

79

Annex B 7

Annex B 7: Timor-Leste Key Exposure Indicators

As of Date 03/08/2004 Est.

Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total debt outstanding and 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0disbursed (TDO) (US$m)a

Net disbursements (US$m)a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total debt service (TDS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0(US$m)a

Debt and debt service indicators (%) TDO/XGSb 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TDO/GDP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TDS/XGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Concessional/TDO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

IBRD exposure indicators (%) IBRD DS/public DS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preferred creditor DS/public 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DS (%)c

IBRD DS/XGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IBRD TDO (US$m)d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Of which present value of guarantees (US$m) Share of IBRD portfolio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IDA TDO (US$m)d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

IFC (US$m) Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equity and quasi-equity /c 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MIGA MIGA guarantees (US$m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

a. Includes public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed, use of IMF credits and net short- term capital.b. “XGS” denotes exports of goods and services, including workers’ remittances.c. Preferred creditors are defined as IBRD, IDA, the regional multilateral development banks, the IMF, and the Bank for International Settlements.d. Includes present value of guarantees.e. Includes equity and quasi-equity types of both loan and equity instruments.

ProjectedActual

Annex B 8: Timor-Leste Operations Portfolio (IBRD/IDA and Grants) As of Date 05/17/2005

Closed Projects 12

IBRD/IDA *Total Disbursed (Active) of which has been repaid 0.00Total Disbursed (Closed) 9.39 of which has been repaid 0.00Total Disbursed (Active + Closed) 9,390,688.00 of which has been repaid 0.00

Total Undisbursed (Active) Total Undisbursed (Closed) 0.00Total Undisbursed (Active + Closed) 0.00

Active Projects

Project ID Project NameDevelopm

ent Objectives

Implementation

ProgressFiscal Year IBRD IDA GRANT Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd

Status of Bank Group Operations (B8)

Port Stat ActiveCountry Democratic Republic of Timor-LesteApproval FYProj ID (SPN)

Proj ID (SPN) Latest DO

Latest IP

Approval FY

IBRD IDA Grants Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd

P073911 Second Agriculture Rehabilitation Proj. S S 2002 8 0.04 0.04 0.038P072648 TP-2ND HEALTH SECTOR REHAB S S 2001 12.6 4.72 -7.64P072461 TP-Economic Institutions for Capacity Bl S S 2001 0.95 0.06 -0.37P072647 TP-FUNDAMENTAL SCHOOL QUALITY PROJECT S S 2002 20.6 5.75 -14.85P087801 TP-POWER SECTOR PRIORITY INVESTMENTS S S 2005 1.39 1.39 0.46P082942 TP-Second Timor-Leste Petroleum Project HS S 2003 1.7 0.66 0.25P072654 TP-Small Enterprises Project II S S 2002 7.5 4.27 4.27 0.631P079320 TP-Third Agric.Rehabilitation Proj. S S 2004 3 0.98 0.27P070294 TP-HEALTH SECTOR REHAB S S 2000 12.7 0.01P083894 TP-Third Transition Support 2004 4.9 0.00Overall Result 17.89 -17.56 0.669

Supervision Rating Original Amount in US$ Millions Disbursements a/

Difference BetweenLast PSR Expected and Actual

80

A

nnex B 8

Annex B 9: Timor-Leste: FY2006-2008 CAS Results Matrix

Country-Level Development Objectives Expected contribution of the CAS to national development results Partnerships

National Development Plan

Goals Major challenges CAS Outcomes17 Milestones

WB Instruments of Support

Development Partners

PILLAR I: DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE SERVICES Reduce the number of illiterate people within the adult population, with an emphasis on women (NDP p. 167) • Universal primary school enrollment by 2015 (MDG #2) • 100% literacy among 15-24 year olds, equally among females and males, by 2015 (MDG #2, 3)

• Absence of sector policy • Limited management and implementation capacity • Low budget execution • Lack of shared vision between Government and partners • Rapidly increasing population

Increased access to and improved efficiency and quality of basic education* • Net enrolment rate for both girls and boys in grade one at least 85% • 95% of grade one girls and boys continue to grade two

• Sector strategies developed and reflective of national policy • Management tasks executed on time according to sector strategies and budgets • All priority posts filled and 80% of non-priority posts filled • Non-salary budget planning realistic and at least 90% budget execution • Primary school curriculum fully disseminated • Increased access to appropriate learning materials • Teacher training programs consolidated • Primary school fees eliminated

EFA/FTI IDA Grant CSP FSQP (TFET) AAA (Making Services Work for the Poor) AAA (Youth: Challenges and Options)

Brazil DCI New Zealand Portugal UNESCO UNICEF WFP

17 Outcomes marked with an asterisk (*) represent areas in which the Bank will focus its interventions.

81

A

nnex B 9

82

Annex B

9






• School feeding programs launched

Improve the health and nutritional status of the people of Timor-Leste (NDP p. 20) • Under-five mortality rate reduced by two-thirds from 1990 level, to 96 per 1,000 children (MDG #4) • Maternal mortality rate reduced by three-quarters from 1990 level, to 252 per 100,000 live births (MDG #4)

• Donor pressure to expand priorities leading to difficulty of sustaining focus on priority programs • Constrained demand for public health services due to culture, gender, etc. • Inadequate quality and responsiveness to clients by service providers • Rapidly increasing population and extremely high fertility rates • Potentially fragile Government commitment to results focus

Improved access to and quality of primary health services* • Measles and DPT3 vaccination coverage increased from 45% to 55% • Skilled attendance at birth increased from 28% to 40% • Annual outpatient visits per capita increased from 2 to 2.5 • Targeted health promotion programs implemented, particularly for youth on HIV/AIDS, STDs and communicable diseases, reproductive health, and road safety/accident prevention

• District and hospital plans developed annually and monitored quarterly, consistent with Health Sector Policy Framework • District and hospital budgets developed annually as instruments to implement district and hospital plans • Key indicators of district and national health sector performance monitored and discussed regularly • System for collecting and measuring health indicators improved • Monitoring and evaluation of health worker behavior strengthened • Health promotion programs designed and initiated

AAA (Health Sector Review) AAA (Making Services Work for the Poor) AAA (Youth: Challenges and Options) HRSDP (TFET/EC) EC-funded health program CSP

AusAID Cuba EC UNFPA UNICEF USAID WFP WHO

Meet the needs for electricity throughout Timor-Leste, thus

• Low overall electrification rate (21%) and very low (5%) rural

Improved efficiency of power supply and collection efficiency in national capital to

• Contract for fuel imports awarded • Installation of 6.8 MW of more efficient power

CSP ESDP Gas Seep Harvesting

ADB Japan JICA Norad

83

A

nnex B 9






supporting economic productivity and quality of life for all citizens (NDP p. 284)

electrification rate • Absence of clear policy and strategy for nation-wide electrification • Lack of legal, regulatory and institutional framework • High fuel prices • High distribution losses • Low collections • Weak institutional capacity in EDTL • Incomplete rehabilitation of district town power systems

allow greater spending on district power services* • Reduced fuel costs in comparison to regional benchmark Singapore FOB • Overall efficiency of Dili generation, distribution, and collections improved, as measured by increased collections per liter of fuel from 30 to 45 • EDTL institutional capacity strengthened Enhanced availability of reliable, affordable power in the districts to support social and economic development* • Reliable power restored to currently connected customers in districts • Measures to restore power services to sub-districts and expand

generation capacity in Dili • Urgent distribution rehabilitation measures completed • Distribution loss reduction study completed and program launched • Prepayment meter program completed • Plan for full, timely payment of Government dues prepared and agreed • Recommendations on institutional framework for electrification adopted by Government • National electrification planning study, including alternative energy resource analysis, completed

Program (TFET) PSPIP (TFET) EICBP ESMAP PPIAF CDCF GEF PHRD AAA (Rural Growth Strategy)

84

A

nnex B 9






rural access under implementation

Provide roads and bridges for the movement of people and goods, orderly and efficient functioning of markets, and sustainable development (NDP p. 37)

• Lack of plans and planning capability • Inadequate maintenance of existing road network • Weak institutional capacity • Weak local contractor capability and contractual arrangements

Improved availability of efficient, cost effective, and financially sustainable transport infrastructure to increase connectivity and thus support social and economic development • 360 km of roads and bridges rehabilitated and maintained to satisfactory levels • Transport costs (vehicle operating costs plus travel time) on main roads reduced by 15%

• Road improvement strategy and investment program adopted by Government • Capacity building program designed and underway • Simplified conditions for local contracts developed • Measures to improve performance of domestic contracting industry adopted • Equipment leasing company established

CSP EC-funded agriculture program AAA (Rural Growth Strategy)

ADB EC Japan

Provide adequate, safe, and sustainable water supply, with the aim of full cost recovery in urban centers and through community-managed facilities in rural areas (NDP p. 275)

• Lack of access to safe drinking water both in Dili and in urban areas • Lack of legal, regulatory, and institutional framework • Weak institutional capacity in WSS/SAS

Improved water supply for residents and businesses in urban and rural areas • 40% of Dili residents and businesses connected to 24-hour safe water and 35% of small towns and villages with access to

• WSS/SAS corporatization road map and regulatory policy endorsed and financed • Regulatory framework and credible regulator in place • WSS/SAS reconstituted as a public corporation • WSS/SAS a full

CSP AAA (Rural Growth Strategy)

ADB AusAID JICA Portugal

85

A

nnex B 9






• 80% of urban population with access to safe piped water (NDP p. 281) • 80% of rural population with access to safe local water supply (NDP p. 281)

clean water participant in IBNET, measuring and reporting regularly on core performance benchmarks • Comprehensive capacity building program on providing efficient countrywide WSS services implemented

Extend support to the veterans of the Resistance (NDP p. 115)

• High expectations regarding recognition of veterans in accordance with Constitution

Recognition of veterans of the resistance on the basis of national consultations* • Veterans recognized in accordance with law • National policy on assistance to veterans followed by Government, NGOs, and donors

• Veterans law completed • Veterans database completed and transferred to National Veterans Directorate • National policy on assistance to veterans adopted

CSP PCF IDF

AusAID DCI UK UNDP

PILLAR II: CREATING PRODUCTIVE EMPLOYMENT Generate new employment (NDP p. 230) • Income per capita increased to $600 (in

• Poor capacity for implementing capital expenditures • Slow budget execution, particularly

Jobs created directly through budget implementation and overseas employment programs*

• Study on improving capital development budget execution completed • Capital development

CSP PFMCBP IDF

DCI UNDP






2002 USD) (NDP p. 228)

for capital development spending • Inadequate monitoring of job creation through budget implementation • Difficulties negotiating employment agreements with overseas governments

• Increased private sector employment through improved budget implementation, with an emphasis on labor-intensive programs • 3,000 jobs created overseas for Timorese workers with adequate representation of women and youth

budget execution steadily improving • Light labor survey implemented • Labor-intensive programs designed and implemented • Emigrant workers program operational in South Korea and agreements with additional host countries underway

Promote private initiatives, innovation, and investments by creating enabling and supportive environments (NDP p. 20) • Number of foreign investment operations increased to 2,000 (NDP p. 228) • Value of non-oil and gas exports to grow ten-fold from 2001 export levels (NDP p. 228)

• Major gaps and delays in creating the legal and the regulatory framework for business activity • Many bureaucratic impediments to doing business and increasing reports of corruption in the civil service • Lack of information on business constraints or methods to improve awareness • Lack of entrepreneurial and technical skills • Lack of an

Improved private sector enabling environment, resulting in increased trade, investment, and jobs* • Laws on investment, leasing, credit and collateral approved • Business registration procedures streamlined • Improved performance against “Doing Business” indicators • 1,000 new jobs created through non-

• Investment and Export Promotion Agency (IEPA) and Domestic Investment Promotion Agency created and fully operational • Foreign and domestic investment information and management system in place • Investment promotion campaigns undertaken in key niche areas • Extended program of entrepreneurial and technical training for current and prospective entrepreneurs through

CSP SEP II (TFET) AAA (Private and Financial Sector Review) AAA (Doing Business in Timor-Leste) IFC/PEDF FIAS

IMF Portugal USAID

86

A

nnex B 9

87

A

nnex B 9






institutional focal point to promote and facilitate foreign and domestic investment • Insecure land and property rights

petroleum private investment (measured on a gross basis) • Increased number of entrepreneurial jobs, especially for women and youth • Greater consultation between Government and private sector • USD 10 million in new Foreign Direct Investment • USD 10 million increase in non-petroleum exports

Business Development Centers, private organizations, and secondary and tertiary level institutions, with significant participation of women and youth • Business Forums and Public-Private Sector Working Group meetings held regularly

Ensure that banking, credit and microfinance services are available to all, including the poor and women (NDP p. 31)

• Inadequate credit availability for small businesses, especially in rural areas and for women • Poor information on credit worthiness and collateral

Improved access to credit for private investment and working capital* • Increased number of microfinance institutions, in both rural and urban areas • Increased coverage by commercial banks in both rural and urban areas • Increased lending for private investment and working capital

• Credit and collateral registry created • Public awareness campaigns on credit mechanisms conducted, with emphasis on reaching women and youth • Training programs for bankers and microlending institutions conducted

SEP II FIRST IDF AAA (Private and Financial Sector Review) IFC/PEDF

ADB USAID






• Increased access to credit for women and youth

Provide more certain land and property rights for development of commercial enterprise and agriculture (NDP pp. 177, 226) • Land reform and titling program instituted (NDP p. 235)

• Insecure land and property rights • Inadequate legal and regulatory framework and systems

Strengthened ownership rights through improved policies and systems for land titling and sale of state-owned property • Functioning market in land and property • Land and property being used as collateral for finance

• Land registration pilot implemented and report completed • Approval and implementation of land and property legal framework • Policy and proposal on administration and sale of state-owned property agreed • Titling system in place

CSP

USAID

Manage agriculture, fisheries, and forestry resources in a way that supports sustainable production (NDP p. 174) • New protected areas through improved resources management and development (NDP p. 176)

• Lack of sector information • Lack of policy framework • Slow legislative process

Enhanced sustainable resource management* • Legal and regulatory framework and systems in place for sustainable development of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries • Monitoring and control system functioning and licensed boats in operation

• Forestry Policy and Strategy drafted • Forest inventory started • Protected areas identified • Baseline statistics collection system agreed upon and selected baseline information available • Adequate fisheries licensing system designed and systems for monitoring and control of fisheries licenses

CSP ARP (TFET) EC-funded agriculture program

ACIAR AusAID EU FAO GTZ JICA USAID National and International NGOs

88

A

nnex B 9






identified Achieve food security, improve food self-sufficiency, and diversify agricultural production (NDP pp. 174) • 50% reduction in the number of months with insufficient food supply among rural households (NDP p. 181) • Release of new food crop varieties (NDP p. 181)

• Lack of access among farmers to high-quality inputs, technical advice, and credit • Poor rural infrastructure

Building blocks for improved food security and food production in place* • Coordinated national system established for seed/tuber testing, multiplication and distribution • Timely reporting and monitoring of food security • Agricultural extension model piloted, with increased information to farmers, particularly women

• Food security strategy drafted • Baseline statistics collection system agreed upon and selected baseline information available • National protocols for food crop, seed and tuber testing, multiplication and distribution agreed upon • Measures for effective regionalization launched, including steps for improved agricultural extension services • MAFF guidelines for working with communities developed, with special emphasis on women

CSP ARP (TFET) EC-funded agriculture program AAA (Rural Growth Strategy)

AusAID EU JICA WFP National and International NGOs

Facilitate agro-industrial development leading to increased processing and value-adding in-country (NDP p. 174, 241) • Higher incomes

• Inadequate legal framework for investment • Insecurity of land tenure and property rights • Limited capacity among farmers to adopt new production

Enhanced business-oriented production of agricultural products* • Increased production and earnings from agriculture cash products, including high value, organic, and alternative products

• Market studies and feasibility analysis (value chain analysis) completed and implementation of recommendations underway • Coordination mechanisms between MAFF and IEPA

CSP ARP (TFET) EC-funded agriculture program AAA (Rural Growth Strategy) AAA (Youth:

EU GTZ Portugal USAID National and International NGOs

89

A

nnex B 9

90

A

nnex B 9






and employment among farmers (NDP p. 176)

technologies • Lack of available information on agribusiness and trade opportunities • Poor rural infrastructure

established to ensure sharing of information on agribusiness options and potential markets and investors

Challenges and Options) IFC/PEDF

PILLAR III: STRENGTHENING GOVERNANCE Promote good governance through popular participation and responsible and responsive government (NDP p. 123)

• Corruption • Weak institutions • Difficulty of ensuring country coverage by the Office of the Provedor • Lack of capacity in key institutions, including Provedor, Court of Appeals, media, and civil society • Absence of legal protection for civil society and media • Absence of culture of openness • Lack of trust in probity of State institutions • Lack of clarity on standards of behavior in high office • Lack of anticorruption

Safeguards against corruption and abuse of power in place, with increased awareness of citizens’ rights* • Provedor functioning credibly in education, prevention, and investigation of corruption • Adoption and implementation of Leadership Code by Presidency, Judiciary, Parliament and Executive • Higher-quality, independent scrutiny by Parliament, Court of Appeals, media, and

• Provedor equipped, staffed, and operational • Adequate provisions for combating corruption included in the Penal Code • Options study on integrity instruments completed, including disclosure system for high officials and civil servants in high-risk areas • Progress toward transferring audit of Government accounts to Court of Appeals • Parliament, media, and civil society supported in conducting independent scrutiny, including training

CSP PFMCBP IDF Pacific Facility WBI

AusAID DCI DFID/UK UNDP USAID Partnership for Transparency Internews HAK JSMP Fokupers Lao Hamutuk Labeh Youth Against Corruption

91

A

nnex B 9






instruments civil society • Policy on information dissemination and access established, including monthly press bulletins in both national languages

Effectively manage oil and gas revenues and savings to benefit present and future generations (NDP p. 21)

• Weak human resource capacity • Corruption • Populist pressure and difficulty of managing expectations

Transparency and probity in managing petroleum revenues* • Petroleum revenue collection, savings policy, and petroleum fund functioning credibly

• Regular audits of petroleum company payments and petroleum fund receipts • Information on petroleum fund receipts and withdrawals made publicly available regularly in accessible form • Consultative Council and Investment Advisory Board operational • Capacity building program in place for petroleum related agencies, Parliament, media, and civil society

CSP PFMCBP PTAP II (TFET) DGF EITI IDF

AusAID DCI DFID IMF Norad

Develop and administer effective, accessible, and impartial system of justice which is prompt, transparent, and in conformity with the

• Minimally functional justice system • Weak systems and processes • Corruption

Improved access to justice, with enhanced quality and efficiency • Prosecution and courts providing more timely access to justice for both women and men

• Prosecution backlog reduced • Superior Council for Public Prosecution and Superior Council for Judiciary staffed • Measures to prioritize serious cases of gender-

CSP AusAID Brazil DCI Portugal UK UNDP UNICEF UNOTIL

92

Annex B

9






cultural heritage of Timor-Leste (NDP p. 21)

• Superior Council for the Public Prosecution and Superior Council for the Judiciary carrying out disciplinary functions • Greater community engagement by the National Police (PNTL) and improved responsiveness to the needs of women • Increased proportion of complaints against police independently investigated

based violence adopted, including training for court actors • Mediation mechanisms formalized and recognized • Police community awareness programs and community consultation mechanisms in place • PNTL gender analysis completed and related interventions and monitoring system designed • Law on police discipline promulgated and broad consultations on independent review commission held

USAID ASF HAK JSMP

Create a lean, effective, efficient, accountable, and transparent civil service (NDP p. 21)

• Absence of spirit of public service • Uneven leadership and weak management • Weak accountability • Uneven political will

Enhanced motivation and responsibility among civil servants, resulting in higher standards of probity and service delivery* • Career development and pay structure introduced • Office of the Inspector General

• Clear responsibilities and reporting arrangements established • Transparent and impartial recruitment and promotion standards introduced • Disciplinary manual disseminated and workshops held across State entities

CSP PFMCBP SEP II (TFET) AAA (Health Sector Review)

AusAID DCI DFID Norad UNDP

93

A

nnex B 9






(OIG) reinforces integrity and accountability through inspections and investigations, with recommendations implemented and reports published

• Policy for career development and pay drafted • Gender training for civil servants conducted • OIG organic law adopted and website operational

Ensure comprehensive, participatory planning with effective monitoring and evaluation and relevant, well-drafted, timely legislation (NDP pp. 54, 108)

• Weak institutions and priority-setting • Lack of information and consultation on some key laws • Insufficient availability of data for effective monitoring and evaluation

Sound policy and legislative process across Government* • Progress in following policy and legislative process by all entities, including availability of draft laws, appropriate consultations, and coherent legislative timetable Strengthened capacity to manage for and monitor results on the ground, with particular attention to women and youth* • Improved monitoring and evaluation leading to higher quality policy decisions and clearer priorities • Capacity of the

• Policy and legislative process developed and associated manual, workshops and training delivered for relevant ministries • Health sector approach to identifying and monitoring indicators adopted in additional ministries • Participatory Poverty Assessment and Living Standards Measurement Survey completed • Inter-ministerial

CSP PFMCBP IDF Pacific Facility AAA (Poverty Assessment) AAA (Making Services Work for the Poor)

ADB AusAID UNDP UNICEF WFP

94

A

nnex B 9






National Statistics Directorate enhanced in conducting and analyzing a household survey program • Poverty assessment results incorporated into preparation of future strategies

coordination of poverty monitoring enhanced

Ensure effective, transparent and corruption-free management of the economy and public finances (NDP pp. 22)

• Corruption • Weak management and accountability for public finance

Improved implementation of budget in a transparent manner, in line with savings policy and sustainable growth and poverty reduction goals* • Improved financial management with critical financial management staff in place in MPF and line agencies • Reduced unspent appropriations • Combined Sources Budget and budget execution reports published in an accessible form including medium-term

• Budget defined and executed with particular focus on social, agricultural, and infrastructure services to the poor in rural areas • Delegation of expenditure and procurement approvals to line ministries enhanced • Block grants program piloted in three districts • Comprehensive and timely quarterly and annual reporting to Parliament, including audit and Management Letter, and dissemination to district staff • Improved availability of data on donor disbursements and

CSP PFMCBP AAA (Public Expenditure Management and Budget Execution)

AusAID DCI DFID IMF Norad UNCDF UNICEF UNDP NGOs

95

A

nnex B 9






donor commitments Enhanced revenue performance through streamlined procedures and mechanisms * • Customs clearance times reduced for low-risk shipments • Improved revenue collection, including from petroleum

commitments • Automated Customs management information system in place • Sufficient qualified staff recruited to revenue agencies and Mineral Resources Directorate

Annex B 1 Annex B 2: Timor-Leste Selected Indicators* of...

Documents

Transcript of Annex B 1 Annex B 2: Timor-Leste Selected Indicators* of...