Anita StreetOffice of Research and Development

Office of Science Policy

Unregulated Pollutants and Emerging Chemicals Workshop

October 25 – 26, 2005

Futures Analysis and Approaches to Integrated

Collaborative Problem-Solving

• 1,950 employees • $700 million budget• $100 million extramural

research grant program• 13 lab or research

facilities across the U.S.

• Credible, relevant and timely research results and technical support that inform EPA policy decisions

Research and Development

Making decisions with sound science requires.. Relevant, high quality, cutting-edge

research in human health, ecology, pollution control and prevention, economics and decision sciences

Proper characterization of scientific findings

Appropriate use of science in the decision process

Research and developmentcontribute uniquely to.. Health and ecological research, as well

as research in pollution prevention and new technology

In-house research and an external grants program

Problem-driven and core research

• Human Health

• Particulate Matter

• Drinking Water

• Clean Water

• Global Change

• Endocrine Disruptors

• Ecological Risk

• Pollution Prevention

• Homeland Security

High Priority Research Areas

Office of Science Policy

• Developing unified positions on the use of science in regulations and policies

• Manage futures program for ORD

• Coordinate implementation of EPA-wide science policy

Today’s Presentation

• “Futures 101” What it is and isn’t Methods Barriers

• How might futures be used in the context of unregulated or emerging pollutants?

• How can futures be used in the context of CPS?

The Illusion of Certainty

• "The phonograph is of no commercial value.“ - Thomas Edison, 1880

• “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in the home.“- Ken Olsen, President of Digital, 1977

• "Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land."- Margaret Thatcher, 1987

What is Futures Analysis?

• An effort to anticipate and plan for future conditions and/or events. This allows organizations to plan strategically and position themselves for situations that may occur in the future.

• With respect to environmental protection, futures analysis involves identifying potential environmental problems before they become widespread or pose serious human health or ecological threats. This may help EPA more effectively prevent undesirable outcomes.

First Industrial Revolution EPA

Second Industrial Revolution

Adapt Shape

Atoms/Bits (Digital/physical Converge)

Fluid, mobile, interconnectedExponential change

AtomsIncremental changeScience of discovery

Different World/Different Challenges

Adapted from Rejeski, 2003

A Revolution in:

How things are made

And whether they are made

Where things are made

Rejeski, 2003

Common Futures Methods

• Scanning/lookout panels

• Trend extrapolation/modeling

• Scenario building

Scanning/Lookout Panels

• Systematic and continuous review of news about scientific, technological, sociological, and institutional developments.

• Assembling a group of individuals with expertise in relevant fields who can identify noteworthy trends.

Examples• ORD's scan to identify potential futures

issues and book Environmentalism & the Technologies of Tomorrow (Rejeski/Olson,2004)

• EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Environmental Futures Committee

……scanning scanning weak weak

signalssignals

• Conflict and Governance Conflict and Governance • Science and Technology Science and Technology • Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security • Natural Resources and Environment Natural Resources and Environment • Energy Energy • Population, Education, and Human Population, Education, and Human

Welfare Welfare • Communications and Transportation Communications and Transportation • Regional and International Economics Regional and International Economics • Social and Cultural Issues Social and Cultural Issues

• NoveltyNovelty• Scope Scope • Severity Severity • Visibility Visibility • TimingTiming

• ProbabilityProbability

Self-healing Self-healing Infrastructure Infrastructure SystemsSystems

SummarySummary

RankingRanking

SourcesSources

DOMAINSDOMAINS

LEADSLEADS CRITERIACRITERIA

Trend Extrapolation/Modeling

• Projection of future conditions based on assessing past trends and extrapolating them by adjusting time-series variables.

• Trend extrapolation is accomplished using simple mathematical projections; modeling involves numerous variables and complex calculations.

Example:• Population growth and demographic change• Estimates of global climate change• Trends in manufacturing

2000= 100 MillionSource: US Census Bureau

282 Million

2010 309 Million

2020 336 Million

2030 364 Million

2040 392 Million

2050

Projected US Population: 2000-2050

420 Million

US Population Over 65

= 10 MillionSource: US Census Bureau

35 Million2000

201040 Million

202055 Million

203071 Million

2040 80 Million

205087 Million

HPV Chemicals Stats

• 3,300 chemicals out 70,000 used commercially in large quantities (excluding polymers) in U.S.

• 4.4 to 7.1 trillion pounds of HPV are produced/imported annually in the U.S.

• 450M lbs used annually worldwide. Growing 4% annually.

Scenario Building

• Qualitative projections of alternative future conditions based on variation in the interaction of key drivers of change

• Drivers include social, technological, economic, and institutional changes

• Scenarios range from very broad combinations of drivers that describe various world views to more specific stories about the impact of drivers on particular issues

Scenario Building

• Scenarios are tools for learning and focusing attention.

• They must be relevant to decision makers.

• Scenario efforts begin with an exploration of the goals and key assumptions of the organization.

• Tools include basic trend research and interviewing insiders and outsiders.

Drivers

• Drivers are forces that generate environmental and institutional stressors that can lead to adverse impacts on human health and ecological endpoints.

• EPA's SAB Environmental Futures Committee identified the following Population growth and urbanization Economic expansion/resource

consumption Technological development Changes in environmental attitudes

EPA Scenarios

• Formally established a “Futures Network”-- GBN training for 30 people from across the Agency

• Interviewed managers about “what kept them up at night” Worsening global environment Future relevance of EPA Future of public support for EPA

EPA Scenarios

High Social Cohesion

“A Soft “Eco-Efficiency

Landing” Revolution”

Low Growth High Growth “A Darker “Full Speed

Age” Ahead”

Low Social Cohesion

Strategic Conversation

Desirability Likelihood Severity

Eco- Efficiency

Revolution60% 23% 17%

Full Speed Ahead 6% 45% 32%

A Soft Landing 32% 17% 13%

A Darker Age 2% 15% 38%

“Full Speed Ahead” voted “most likely” --- thought to reflect current trends

……developing developing foresight toolsforesight tools

Pennsylvania Pennsylvania DEP’s Futures DEP’s Futures Planning Planning ProcessProcess

Where are future Where are future vulnerabilities vulnerabilities (the extent to which a system (the extent to which a system might be harmed by stressors)?might be harmed by stressors)?

...a systems’s sensitivity and adaptability...

...exposure to stress...

...and society’s valuation of the system.

VulnerabilityVulnerability

SpaceSpace TimeTime

Barriers to Futures

• Scientific: absence of basic data to adequately account for uncertainty

• Technical: inadequate tools to evaluate problems; lack of incentives to collect better information

• Institutional: unclear mandates or authority, lack of internal and external coordination, lack of vision or imagination, protectionism, skepticism

Futures and Emerging Chemicals

• Copper Scenario Model IPPC emission scenarios for GHG Analyzed future material intensity and

copper use from yr 2000 – 2100 Four world regions – 3 scenarios Statistically analyzed historical data Surveyed experts Quantified scenarios

Futures and Emerging Chemicals

Futures and Emerging Chemicals

• EPA/IBM Text Analytics Pilot Using HPV documents, identify

patterns or trends to discover insights about tox effects

Using HPV documents identify trends using patent data to determine where/how HPV chemicals are being used

Futures & Collaboration

•Public Understanding of Science (PUS)•Deficit to Dialogue•Upstream engagement

http://www.demos.co.uk/catalogue/paddlingupstream/

PublicInvolvement

(EPA decision,members ofthe public

involved voluntarily)

CollaborativeProblem Solving

(joint actionto solve

a problemthat no single

stakeholder can solve)

Neutral-Assisted Collaborative Problem Solving Involving the Public in EPA Decisions•Facilitated policy dialogues•Facilitated negotiated rulemaking

Neutral-Assisted Public Involvement•Facilitated public meetings•Facilitated workshops•Facilitated listening sessions•Facilitated conferences

CollaborativeProblem Solvingin Shared or OtherStakeholder-led Activities (unassisted)•Intra-agency partnerships•EPA-State co-regulator partnerships•Federal interagency partnerships•Public-private partnerships

Neutral-Assisted Collaborative Problem Solving in Shared or Other Stakeholder-led Activities•Facilitated partnerships•Facilitated intra-agency partnerships

Collaborative Problem Solving Involving the Public in EPA Decisions (unassisted)•Federal advisory committees•EPA-led “shuttle diplomacy” on rule/policy development

Neutral-Assisted Dispute Resolution•EPA facilitated Superfund allocation•Mediated settlement negotiations•Workplace mediation

Traditional Public Involvement Activities (unassisted)•Conferences•Workshops•Listening sessions•Public meetings•Public notice and comment

Alternative Dispute

Resolution(neutral third party)

U.S. EPAU.S. EPAConflict Prevention and Conflict Prevention and Resolution Center (CPRC)Resolution Center (CPRC)

Define/Understandthe Problem to be Solved

Gather informationnecessary to develop

options

Generate options

Select an option

Implement solution

Assess results

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CO

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Jointly Define/Understandthe Problem to be Solved

Jointly Gather informationnecessary to develop options

Jointlygenerate options

Jointlyselect an option

Jointlyimplement solution

Jointlyassess results

Futures & Collaboration

• Stakeholders can develop a collective vision of the future (scenarios, visioning)

• Shape the future and have a say in technological developments before it’s too late to change developmental trajectories

• Help understand the environmental effects of consumer consumption

• Who gets to decide?

Is it practical to view the world as unchanging?

Will changes be linear and incremental?

Can we shape the future before the future shapes us?

Thank You

Anita Street, M.P.HOffice of Research and Development

street.anita@epa.gov 202.564.3626

Visit our futures websites at:http://www.epa.gov/osp/efuture.htm (ORD)

http://www.epa.gov/cfo/futures/index.html (EPA-wide site)

IBM Pilot – Contact:Bob Kavlock at kavlock.robert@epa.gov