Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis
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Transcript of Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis
London, October 6th 2011
Morgan Stanley
European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'
Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO
London, 28th March 2012
2
This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation.
This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Disclaimer
3
-0.2-0.1
1.1
POP Average peers System
Over the past years, Popular has been able to deleverage faster than peers by gathering deposits rather than shrinking our loan book…
3.9
7.0
10.5
POP Average peers System
Deposits evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)
Loans & deposits ex repos. Peers: SAN Spain, BBVA Spain, BTO, BKT & SAB (adjusted for Guipuzcoano). CABK & BKIA: 2007 data not available.
System: Banks & Saving banks.
Source: Quarterly reports and BoS
Loans evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)
174% 174%
135%136%149%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-39pp
Popular Loans/deposits ratio (%)
4
0.30%
0.32%
0.37%
0.42%
0.52%
0.60%
0.73%
0.73%
0.86%
0.98%
1.10%
1.16%
1.21%
1.23%
1,27%
Caja 9
Caja 8
Caja 7
Caja 6
Caja 5
Caja 4
Bank 5
Caja 3
Caja2
Bank 4
Bank 3
Caja 1
Bank 2
Bank 1
Source: Sabadell; BBVA España; Caixabank; Santander España; Pastor; KutxaBank; Unicaja; Bankinter; Ibercaja; BFA ; NovaCaixaGalicia; Caixa Catalunya; Banca Cívica & Unimm Last available information (sep-dec 2011)
(*) Popular ratio calculated over average total assets
+
-
Capacity to generate recurrent
profits
Pre-provision profit over total assets 2011(*)
… While maintaining our leadership in recurrent profit…
5
483
179210
386324318
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Loans breakdown by durationFrontbook Spreads vs Euribor 3M (bps.)
The short duration of our lending book is allowing us to reprice and transfer changes in funding costs
+304bps.
Maturities < 1 year27%Maturities >
1 year73%
(*) January & February 2012
(*)
… This has been possible thanks to our unique business model, which counts with the shortest assets duration within the industry and allow us to adjust rapidly our spreads
6
Even in a complex environment, Popular has managed to remain themost efficient bank in the system… while Pastor synergies will allow us to improve further
42.1% 44.4% 45.7% 46.1% 51.1% 52.3% 53.1% 55.0% 58.4% 58.8% 61.4% 61.7% 67.1%73.8%
83.0%
Popular Popular +Pastor
Sabadell CaixaBank BBK Bankia Unicaja Pastor Bankinter Ibercaja CatalunyaC.
NCG BM N B. Cívica Unnim CAM
Pastor Annual Synergies (€m)
74
147
2012E 2014E
Average 61.6%
Popular & Pastor Efficiency1 Pre-Synergies
44.4
40.4
POP+PAS Pre-Synergies POP+PAS Post-Synergies
Popular+Pastor Efficiency ratio (%)
Note: Information as of 2011 except Unicaja, Ibercaja, CatalunyaCaixa, NCG y BMN (latest figures available)1. General and administration costs over gross margin
132%
7
In 4 years, we will have reduced by EUR19Bn our wholesale dependence, maintaining a robust second line of liquidity…
Evolution of the commercial gap1
89,599 88,106 88,864 89,921
-51,469 -59,021 -65,352 -66,636
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
38,130 29,086 23,512 23,286
(€, million)
Second Line of Liquidity (post LTRO) : Up to €12 Bn*
Maturities more than covered: €14 Bn of LTRO vs€8 Bn maturities
Access to the markets: We remain one of the few players with access to the markets: €750 Mn of senior debt issued in March
* Pastor collaterals up to €2bn included
c.19Bn
1GAP: Loans: Total loans to customers (net)- Other credits- Repos- Valuation adjustments of Repos – ICO Credit lines - Securitisations; Deposits: Demand deposits + time deposits +Other accounts and valuation adjustments + Collection accounts (included in Other financial liabilities)
ICO Credit lines: credit lines to SMEs prefunded by State
-14,844
-18,541
8
… And we have the highest capacity to optimize our capital base due to our conservative IRB models. We will show already some progress in 2012
6
1216 16 18 18 20 20
23 23
32
Fren
ch1
Fren
ch2
Span
ish
1
Ger
man
1
Ital
ian
1 UK
1
Span
ish
2
Ger
man
2 UK
2
Ital
ian
2 Pop
91 87 8777 76
68 6353
pop
Ba
nk 1
Ba
nk 2
Ba
nk 3
Ba
nk 4
Ba
nk 5
Ba
nk 6
Ba
nk 7
RWA/Net Loans (%) POP vs. Spanish peers
Spanish Average
European Average
RWA for mortgages portfolios Euro & Spanish peers (%)
9
Outlook 2012
The deleveraging process of the Spanish Financial System will remain for a couple of years.
In this environment, a recurrent pre-provision profit remains the key to create value.
Due to our unique business model, we expect net interest income to grow in 2012. This margin expansion will be come on the back of asset spread improvement and funding cost containment rather than further carry trade. Therefore, we believe this improvement is structural rather than a one-off.
Cost to Income ratio to remain best-in-class not only in Spain but also in Europe on the back of fresh synergies.
After 2012 clean-up and the expected pre-provision improvement, we expect the underlying profitability of the bank to be in the top quartile of the industry“new normal”.
10
Many Thanks.
Happy to take any questions.
Many Thanks.
Happy to take any questions.
Morgan Stanley European Banks Conference
'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'
11
APPENDIX
12
9.00%
7.41% 1.06%
0.67%
0.25% 0.57%0.78%
0.92%0.54%
EBA CT1December-11
Internal capitalgeneration
2010 MCNsconversion
2009 MCNsconversion /
Exchange
Exchange retailpreferred
shares
Other capitaloptimization (1)
CT1 EBA Jun-12
10.04%
7.41%0.08%0.97%0.03%0.20%
1.35%
Reported CT14Q11
MCNs Intangibles Insurance andfinancial stakes
IRB Models B-2.5 and other CT1 EBA 4Q11
On EBA, an update and a confirmation of our full confidence in bridging the gap to the new EBA definitions without any kind of State capital injection
Reconciliation reported CT1 and new EBA CT1
Capital measures submitted to comply with the new EBA capital requirements
(*)
(*) Without the impact of the sovereign buffer
(1) Capital optimization (ie; Improvement of collaterals or development of internal models;…)
(*)
10.60%
Sovereign buffer
Minimum capital
required
Excess capital
13
Deals to reinforce our capital base
(*) Final amount pending to the take up(**) Terms of the deal to be announced
+56 Mn €2330October 2017Floating. At market
prices
7.5%Through Net Interest
Income
Subordinated debtYes700 (**)Pastor deal MCN
01000December
2014
Fixed price
(7.1€/share)
7%EquityEquityYes7002009 MCN exchange
into MCN compliant
with EBA
+40 Mn€166166June 2012Floating. At market
prices
8%Through Net Interest
Income
Subordinated debtYes5002010 MNC conversion
into equity
+76 Mn €Maximum 376
Mn of shares
0April 2018Floating. At market
prices
6.75%Through Net Interest
Income
Subordinated debtYes1,128 (*) Exchange of preferred
shares into MCN
compliant with EBA
Annual grossimpact on P&L
fully diluted basis
Nº of shares
fully diluted
Nº of shares to
be issue in 2012
(Mn of shares)
Conversion
date
Conversion priceCoupon Coupon payment
accounting method
Balance Sheet
consideration
EBA CT1
compliant
Amount
(Mn€)
Deal
14