Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

14
London, October 6 th 2011 Morgan Stanley European Banks Conference 'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment' Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO London, 28 th March 2012

description

 

Transcript of Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

Page 1: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

London, October 6th 2011

Morgan Stanley

European Banks Conference

'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'

Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO

London, 28th March 2012

Page 2: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

2

This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation.

This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever.

Disclaimer

Page 3: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

3

-0.2-0.1

1.1

POP Average peers System

Over the past years, Popular has been able to deleverage faster than peers by gathering deposits rather than shrinking our loan book…

3.9

7.0

10.5

POP Average peers System

Deposits evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)

Loans & deposits ex repos. Peers: SAN Spain, BBVA Spain, BTO, BKT & SAB (adjusted for Guipuzcoano). CABK & BKIA: 2007 data not available.

System: Banks & Saving banks.

Source: Quarterly reports and BoS

Loans evolution. CAGR 2007-2011 (%)

174% 174%

135%136%149%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-39pp

Popular Loans/deposits ratio (%)

Page 4: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

4

0.30%

0.32%

0.37%

0.42%

0.52%

0.60%

0.73%

0.73%

0.86%

0.98%

1.10%

1.16%

1.21%

1.23%

1,27%

Caja 9

Caja 8

Caja 7

Caja 6

Caja 5

Caja 4

Bank 5

Caja 3

Caja2

Bank 4

Bank 3

Caja 1

Bank 2

Bank 1

Source: Sabadell; BBVA España; Caixabank; Santander España; Pastor; KutxaBank; Unicaja; Bankinter; Ibercaja; BFA ; NovaCaixaGalicia; Caixa Catalunya; Banca Cívica & Unimm Last available information (sep-dec 2011)

(*) Popular ratio calculated over average total assets

+

-

Capacity to generate recurrent

profits

Pre-provision profit over total assets 2011(*)

… While maintaining our leadership in recurrent profit…

Page 5: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

5

483

179210

386324318

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Loans breakdown by durationFrontbook Spreads vs Euribor 3M (bps.)

The short duration of our lending book is allowing us to reprice and transfer changes in funding costs

+304bps.

Maturities < 1 year27%Maturities >

1 year73%

(*) January & February 2012

(*)

… This has been possible thanks to our unique business model, which counts with the shortest assets duration within the industry and allow us to adjust rapidly our spreads

Page 6: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

6

Even in a complex environment, Popular has managed to remain themost efficient bank in the system… while Pastor synergies will allow us to improve further

42.1% 44.4% 45.7% 46.1% 51.1% 52.3% 53.1% 55.0% 58.4% 58.8% 61.4% 61.7% 67.1%73.8%

83.0%

Popular Popular +Pastor

Sabadell CaixaBank BBK Bankia Unicaja Pastor Bankinter Ibercaja CatalunyaC.

NCG BM N B. Cívica Unnim CAM

Pastor Annual Synergies (€m)

74

147

2012E 2014E

Average 61.6%

Popular & Pastor Efficiency1 Pre-Synergies

44.4

40.4

POP+PAS Pre-Synergies POP+PAS Post-Synergies

Popular+Pastor Efficiency ratio (%)

Note: Information as of 2011 except Unicaja, Ibercaja, CatalunyaCaixa, NCG y BMN (latest figures available)1. General and administration costs over gross margin

132%

Page 7: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

7

In 4 years, we will have reduced by EUR19Bn our wholesale dependence, maintaining a robust second line of liquidity…

Evolution of the commercial gap1

89,599 88,106 88,864 89,921

-51,469 -59,021 -65,352 -66,636

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

38,130 29,086 23,512 23,286

(€, million)

Second Line of Liquidity (post LTRO) : Up to €12 Bn*

Maturities more than covered: €14 Bn of LTRO vs€8 Bn maturities

Access to the markets: We remain one of the few players with access to the markets: €750 Mn of senior debt issued in March

* Pastor collaterals up to €2bn included

c.19Bn

1GAP: Loans: Total loans to customers (net)- Other credits- Repos- Valuation adjustments of Repos – ICO Credit lines - Securitisations; Deposits: Demand deposits + time deposits +Other accounts and valuation adjustments + Collection accounts (included in Other financial liabilities)

ICO Credit lines: credit lines to SMEs prefunded by State

-14,844

-18,541

Page 8: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

8

… And we have the highest capacity to optimize our capital base due to our conservative IRB models. We will show already some progress in 2012

6

1216 16 18 18 20 20

23 23

32

Fren

ch1

Fren

ch2

Span

ish

1

Ger

man

1

Ital

ian

1 UK

1

Span

ish

2

Ger

man

2 UK

2

Ital

ian

2 Pop

91 87 8777 76

68 6353

pop

Ba

nk 1

Ba

nk 2

Ba

nk 3

Ba

nk 4

Ba

nk 5

Ba

nk 6

Ba

nk 7

RWA/Net Loans (%) POP vs. Spanish peers

Spanish Average

European Average

RWA for mortgages portfolios Euro & Spanish peers (%)

Page 9: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

9

Outlook 2012

The deleveraging process of the Spanish Financial System will remain for a couple of years.

In this environment, a recurrent pre-provision profit remains the key to create value.

Due to our unique business model, we expect net interest income to grow in 2012. This margin expansion will be come on the back of asset spread improvement and funding cost containment rather than further carry trade. Therefore, we believe this improvement is structural rather than a one-off.

Cost to Income ratio to remain best-in-class not only in Spain but also in Europe on the back of fresh synergies.

After 2012 clean-up and the expected pre-provision improvement, we expect the underlying profitability of the bank to be in the top quartile of the industry“new normal”.

Page 10: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

10

Many Thanks.

Happy to take any questions.

Many Thanks.

Happy to take any questions.

Morgan Stanley European Banks Conference

'Creating Value in a Deleveraging Environment'

Page 11: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

11

APPENDIX

Page 12: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

12

9.00%

7.41% 1.06%

0.67%

0.25% 0.57%0.78%

0.92%0.54%

EBA CT1December-11

Internal capitalgeneration

2010 MCNsconversion

2009 MCNsconversion /

Exchange

Exchange retailpreferred

shares

Other capitaloptimization (1)

CT1 EBA Jun-12

10.04%

7.41%0.08%0.97%0.03%0.20%

1.35%

Reported CT14Q11

MCNs Intangibles Insurance andfinancial stakes

IRB Models B-2.5 and other CT1 EBA 4Q11

On EBA, an update and a confirmation of our full confidence in bridging the gap to the new EBA definitions without any kind of State capital injection

Reconciliation reported CT1 and new EBA CT1

Capital measures submitted to comply with the new EBA capital requirements

(*)

(*) Without the impact of the sovereign buffer

(1) Capital optimization (ie; Improvement of collaterals or development of internal models;…)

(*)

10.60%

Sovereign buffer

Minimum capital

required

Excess capital

Page 13: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

13

Deals to reinforce our capital base

(*) Final amount pending to the take up(**) Terms of the deal to be announced

+56 Mn €2330October 2017Floating. At market

prices

7.5%Through Net Interest

Income

Subordinated debtYes700 (**)Pastor deal MCN

01000December

2014

Fixed price

(7.1€/share)

7%EquityEquityYes7002009 MCN exchange

into MCN compliant

with EBA

+40 Mn€166166June 2012Floating. At market

prices

8%Through Net Interest

Income

Subordinated debtYes5002010 MNC conversion

into equity

+76 Mn €Maximum 376

Mn of shares

0April 2018Floating. At market

prices

6.75%Through Net Interest

Income

Subordinated debtYes1,128 (*) Exchange of preferred

shares into MCN

compliant with EBA

Annual grossimpact on P&L

fully diluted basis

Nº of shares

fully diluted

Nº of shares to

be issue in 2012

(Mn of shares)

Conversion

date

Conversion priceCoupon Coupon payment

accounting method

Balance Sheet

consideration

EBA CT1

compliant

Amount

(Mn€)

Deal

Page 14: Angel Ron: European Banks Conference. Crisis

14