Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity and transformation
31
presentation to conference of Low Carbon Energy for Development Network on 'Transitions to low carbon energy systems: which pathways to energy access for all?' , University of Sussex, 10 th September 2012 Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre Pathways to Sustainable Energy: issues of power, diversity and transformation
-
Upload
steps-centre -
Category
Education
-
view
1.147 -
download
0
description
Andy Stirling, co-director of the STEPS Centre, talks about the Centre's appproach to sustainable energy for development issues at the Low Carbon Energy for Development Network's second international conference at the University of Sussex, September 2012
Transcript of Andy Stirling: Pathways to Sustainable Energy:issues of power, diversity and transformation
presentation to conference of Low Carbon Energy for Development Networkon 'Transitions to low carbon energy systems: which pathways to energy access for all?',
University of Sussex, 10th September 2012
Andy StirlingSPRU & STEPS Centre
Pathways to Sustainable Energy:
issues of power, diversity and transformation
- The Economist
`
“we'll restore science to its rightful place”… - President Obama
“Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao
PROGRESS
“you can’t stop progress” …
“One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad
One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation
all innovation is progress…
Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action”
- EU Council of Ministers
“we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon
Brown
“… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron
TECHNOLOGY
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng
…“history is a race to advance technology”
Technology:
“will determine the future of the human race’”
The challenge of government:
“to strive to stay in the race”…
The role of the public:
“to give technology the status it deserves”…
One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation
Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives… no politics … no choice !
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
Conventional Technology Policy
Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice !
Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast? … who leads?
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
Conventional Technology Policy
TECHNOLOGY
Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice !
Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads?
Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?
PROGRESS
Conventional Technology Policy
The Energy Transition?
“low carbon energy”
Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways
Not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways
social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways
history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83)path-dependence (David, 85) path creation
(Karnoe, 01)
Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways
philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91)/politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways
Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways
economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi,
82)
Multiple Transformations; Many Pathways
Politics within Knowledgematerial and social realities
What is sustainable energy?
‘sustainability’
‘system’
‘energy system’
stylised representation
‘cause’
A ‘STEPS view’
‘effect’
material and social realities
environment‘sustainability’
‘system’
‘energy system’
stylised representationreflexive framing
‘effect’
‘cause’local people
A ‘STEPS view’material and social realities
environment
‘system’
diverse picturesplural intentions
‘effect’
‘cause’government
local people
‘sustainability’
‘energy system’
A ‘STEPS view’material and social realities
plural intentions
‘system’
‘cause’
‘effect’
academic
government
local people
diverse pictures
‘sustainability’
‘energy system’
A ‘STEPS view’material and social realities
environment
academic
government
busin
ess
‘system’
local people
time
‘effect’
‘cause’
ENERGY PATHWAY”
diverse pictures
‘sustainability’
A ‘STEPS view’
“SUSTAINABLE
material and social realitiesplural intentions
interacting processessubjects and objectssocial and physical
agencies and structures
imaginations
power relations
‘system’
time
CONTEXTS
a self-reinforcing trajectory of change
discourses
institutions
expectations
practices
values
technologiesinterests
ecologies
intentionsmaterial world
A ‘STEPS view’
ENERGY PATHWAY” “SUSTAINABLE
Ambiguous Sustainability
typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
0.001 0.1 10 1000externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low SUSTAINABILITY high
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
biomass
typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
Ambiguous Sustainability
0.001 0.1 10 1000
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
21
wind
solar
biomass
n =
‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
minimum maximum25% 75%
Ambiguous Sustainability
typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
low SUSTAINABILITY high
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
36
20
wind 18
solar 11
biomass 22
31
21
16
n =
Ambiguous Sustainability
typical ‘evidence based’, ‘sound science’, ‘transition vision’ picture…
0.001 0.1 10 1000
‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low SUSTAINABILITY high
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
biomass
Ambiguous Sustainability
an indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods)
low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings
NGO industry academic
deliberate reasons
- scenarios
- values
- uncertaiinties
- winners / losers
- assumptions
- expectations
- irreversibilities
…etc
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
biomass
Ambiguous Sustainability
an indicative STEPS approach… (MCM, deliberation,Q- / ethno-methods)
low SUSTAINABILITY high ‘plural and conditional’ exploration of framings
NGO industry academic
deliberate reasons
- scenarios
- values
- uncertaiinties
- winners / losers
- assumptions
- expectations
- irreversibilities
…etc
offshore wavelarge tidal barrage
tidal streamshoreline wave
hydrooffshore wind
geothermalsolar PV
terrestrial wind (micro)terrestrial wind (large)
nuclearmunicipal waste
landfill gascoal + CCS
coal biomass
gas CCGT + CCS - Norwaygas CCGT + CCS - UKCS
gas CCGT - Norwaygas CCGT – UKCS
oilgas CCGT – LNG
gas CCGT – continentald
marine / hydro renewables
non-combustion renewables
combustion renewables and regional fossil fuels
fossil fuels with carbon capture
nuclear
Direction, Distribution… and Diversity…
Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy
offshore wavelarge tidal barrage
tidal streamshoreline wave
hydrooffshore wind
geothermalsolar PV
terrestrial wind (micro)terrestrial wind (large)
nuclearmunicipal waste
landfill gascoal + CCS
coal biomass
gas CCGT + CCS - Norwaygas CCGT + CCS - UKCS
gas CCGT - Norwaygas CCGT – UKCS
oilgas CCGT – LNG
gas CCGT – continentald
marine / hydro renewables
non-combustion renewables
combustion renewables and regional fossil fuels
fossil fuels with carbon capture
nuclear
Direction, Distribution… and Diversity…
Focus directly on diversity in ‘social innovation’ for sustainable energy
Direction, Distribution… and Diversity…
Spaces and tools for analysing and deliberating the “3Ds”
power reinforces pressures for ‘lock-in’
institutionalised technical risk assessment
multiple feasible
Innovation trajectories
expert analysis
innovation union knowledge economy
power ‘closes down’ outputs to policy
POSSIBLE PATHWAYS
pressures for justification force unitary ‘‘expert’
prescriptions
presumed visions
narrow perspectives
aggregated attention
regulatory capture
technocratic procedures
power ‘narrows in’ inputs to appraisal
Op
tion
s$IIIIII
privileged visions
‘Closing Down’ ‘Sustainable Transitions’
single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / most ‘legitimate’ decisions / transitions
€
Sustainability
innovation union knowledge economy
expert analysis
choice discourse
POSSIBLE PATHWAYS
diverse pathways
knowledge democracy
broad-based evidence as choice
‘opening up’ politics of sustainable energy
‘transition’ depends on: contexts, perspectives,
sensitivities, scenarios,
- ‘plural and conditional’ public policy advice
Sustainability
Op
tion
s
help catalyse: democratic accountability context sensitivity
social robustness
inclusive participation
broad transdisciplinary notions of sustainability
multiple priorities uncertainties
diverse possible pathways
diversity in technology portfolios
‘Opening Up’ Democratic Transformations:plural energy sustainabilities
IIIIII
$IIIIII
$IIIIIIIIIIII
$
