and Spatial Analysis on 3E under a Constraint on Radiative ......300 350 400 2000 2010 2020 2030...
Transcript of and Spatial Analysis on 3E under a Constraint on Radiative ......300 350 400 2000 2010 2020 2030...
Regional and Spatial Analysis on 3E under a Constraint on Radiative Forcing:
Integrated Assessment Using Economic, Land‐use, and Ecosystem Models
Presentation: Ken’ichi Matsumoto (NIES)and
Toshihiko Masui, Toru Nozawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Sawako Ishiwatari, MikikoKainuma (NIES), Tsuguki Kinoshita (Ibaraki Univ.), Etsushi Kato (JAMSTEC)
2010/2/21 1AIM Intl. WS@NIES
Summary of RCPs
• Representative Concentration Pathways
• Pre‐scenarios to develop new scenarios for AR5
• Input for climate models and basis for development of socioeconomic scenarios
• The data are provided not only in the regional scale but also in the gridded scale (0.5 x 0.5 degrees) for gases emissions and land‐use change.
• Four RCPs exist and each one scenario is analyzed by one modeling team.
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Approach toward AR5
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Source: Moss et al. (2010) Publication Dates‐WGI Report: Sep., 2013‐WGII Report: Mar., 2014‐WGIII Report: Apr., 2014‐Synthesis Report: Sep., 2014
Selection of RCPs
Name Radiative Forcing Concentration Pathways Shape
RCP8.5 8.5W/m2 (in 2100) <= ~1370ppm CO2‐eq Rising
RCP6.0 ~6.0W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~850ppm CO2‐eq Stabilization without overshoot
RCP4.5 ~4.5W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~650ppm CO2‐eq Stabilization without overshoot
RCP3‐PD < 3W/m2 (peak and decline) ⇒ 2.6W/m2 < ~490ppm CO2‐eq Peak & decline
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Source: Moss et al. (2010)
Four RCPs: RF and CO2 Emissions
Radiative Forcing 2000‐2100 CO2 Emissions 2000‐2100
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012345678910
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
RF (W
/m2)
year
AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 Em
ission
s (PgC)
year
AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 Em
ission
s (PgC)
year
AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 AIM ‐ Reference MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 MiniCAM ‐ Reference IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) IMAGE ‐ Reference MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5
Four RCPs: Population and GDP
Population Scenarios 2000‐2100 GDP Scenarios 2000‐2100
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0
2
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6
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12
14
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World Pop
ulation (billion)
year
AIMMiniCAMIMAGEMESSAGE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GDP (trillion
US$20
00)
year
AIMMiniCAMIMAGEMESSAGE
AIM/CGE [Global]
EmissionsDownscale
Land UseDownscale
Pop & GDPscenario
GHG & aerosolemissions pathways
Base yearemissions
RF
Pop & GDPDownscale
Pop & GDPgridded data
Regional & sectoralemissions & economic
scenario
Global
Region
Country
Grid
Land‐use change
EcosystemModel
RCP6.0 spatially‐detailed scenario
Flow of RCP6.0 Analysis
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Land use
Emissions from land‐use and burning
Emissions from energy & industry
AIM/Impact [Policy]
Climate change Impact Response Function
Impact/Adaptation
GHG Emissions
AIM/Impact [Policy]
Global GHG emission path
GMTI
Pattern scaling module
Climate Scenario by country
Potential impact
estimation module
National/ Sector‐wise impacts
Integrated assessment
(Emission/Climate/Impacts)
Energy‐economic model
Simple climate model
GCM results Adaptation
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Global Emissions Pathways
Reference RCP6.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2
CH4
N2O
SOx
BC
OC
CO
NOx
NMVOC
unit: 2000=1.0
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AIM/CGE [Global]
Final demand sector
Commoditymarket
food
serviceenergy
...
TradeJapan
China...
Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity
...
Annual parameter change
Gasesemissions
Gasesemissions
Climatechange
Feedbacke.g. Land productivity change due to climate changeScenarios: population, GDP, ...
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Production factormarket
capital
Production sectors
land
resourcelabor
CO2 Emissions from FF and Industry (TgC)
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Reference RCP6.0
• CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry will be abated about 40% in 2100.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
6W(F) 6W(B)
CCS Technology (TgC/yr)
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Energy (EJ)
Primary (Reference)
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Primary (RCP6.0)
Final (Reference) Final (RCP6.0)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Renewables
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Renewables
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Solids Liquids Gas Electricity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Solids Liquids Gas ElectricityAIM Intl. WS@NIES
GDP (tri. US$2000)
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Reference RCP6.0
• Although GDP will increase more in the reference case than in the RCP6.0, the difference is not so large.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
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Data Population GDP
UN population(UN Long range)
224 countriesPopulation data
(2000-2050)
183 countriesGDP data
(2000-2100)
224 countriesPopulation data
(2000-2100)
30 secondGrid cell pop.(2000-2100)
UN population(UN shot range)
IFs GDP scenario
224 countriesGDP data
(2000-2100)
UN Urbanization
30 secondGrid cell GDP(2000-2100)
Income gap
GTAP GDP in 2001
IIASAPopulation scenario
Population rank‐size rule
Urban area rank‐size rule
Data
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Population/GDP Downscaling Model
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2000 2050
2100
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Population Scenario
0.00E+00
2.00E+03
4.00E+03
6.00E+03
8.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.20E+04
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSE
IND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUS
XME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
1. Urban (GDP, crop price…)2. Cropland (yield, slope angle…)3. Pasture (NPP, slope angle…)4. Harvest forest (population density..)
Geophysical constraint・Built‐up area < 5 degree・Forest < 20 degreeetc.
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Land‐use Model
2000 2050
2100
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Land‐use Scenario (Cropland)
0.00E+00
5.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.50E+06
2.00E+06
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSE
IND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUS
XME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
2000 2050
2100
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Land‐use Scenario (Pasture)
0.00E+00
5.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.50E+06
2.00E+06
2.50E+06
3.00E+06
3.50E+06
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSE
IND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUS
XME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
AIM/Impact [Policy]
AIM/CGE [Global]
Land UseDownscale
Pop & GDPscenario
GHG & aerosolemissions pathways
Base yearemissions
RF
Pop & GDPDownscale
Pop & GDPgridded data
Regional & sectoralemissions & economic
scenario
Global
Region
Country
Grid
Land‐use change
EcosystemModel
RCP6.0 spatially‐detailed scenario
Flow of RCP6.0 Analysis
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Land use
Emissions from land‐use and burning
Emissions from energy & industry
EmissionsDownscale
・Power plant & energy conv. (POP)・Industry: process & combustion (GDP)・Solvent use (GDP)・Residential & commercial (Rural POP)・Waste (POP)・Agriculture: waste (Cropland)・International shipping・Aviation・Transportation (road & railroad)・Agriculture : Animal & Soil
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Sector Region IndicatorsElectricity XE15 Population
Electricity USA Population
… … …
Agriculture XE15 Cropland
… … …
Summed up
From AIM/CGE [Global]
AIM
24 regions
Downscaling by Indicator
Global Distribution
Regional Distribution
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Emissions Downscaling Model
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Emissions Downscaling Methods
Method Sector and indicator
Case 1Changes in regional emissions are downscaled according to spatially explicit indicators for each sector and each region.
・ENE (total population)・IND (GDP)・SLV (GDP)・DOM (rural population)・WST (total population)・AWB (cropland area)
Case 2 Global distribution at year 2000 is scaled by world total emissions.
・SHP・AIR
Case 3 Regional distribution at year 2000 is scaled by regional total emissions for each region.
・TRA・AGR
Case 4 Estimate with terrestrial carbon cycle model (VISIT).
・SAV・LCF
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
Case 1 (CH4 from Industry)
20502100
Reference RCP6.0
Case 2 (CH4 from International Shipping)
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2050
Reference RCP6.0
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50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
Case 3 (CH4 from Agriculture)
Reference RCP6.0
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model (VISIT)
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Assessing carbon cycle by TCC model using the matrix
Transition matrix of Land‐use change by grid (λ)
Agricultural area
Primary forest
Secondary forest
ForestHarvesting
(λPS)
NaturalDisturbance
ForestHarvesting(λss)
Land clearing
Land abandonment
(λSA)
(λPA)
(λAS)
CO2 Emissions from LUC (TgC)
Land-use change
‐800
‐600
‐400
‐200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Reference RCP6.0AIM Intl. WS@NIES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF
Case 4 (CH4 from Savanna Burning)
Reference RCP6.0
Next Step
• Extension after 2100
• Development of new IAM scenarios and storylines
• Sensitivity analysis
• Coordination with IAV and CM
• Downscaling methods
etc…
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