Anchorage crossroads to the world 2004 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 21, 2004 Anchorage,...
20
anchorage • crossroads to the world 2004 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 21, 2004 Anchorage, Alaska Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER
-
Upload
bruno-lambert -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
6
Transcript of Anchorage crossroads to the world 2004 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 21, 2004 Anchorage,...
anchorage • crossroads to the world
2004 Anchorage Economic Forecast
January 21, 2004
Anchorage, AlaskaScott Goldsmith
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
ISER
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Annual Rate of Job Growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
anchorage • crossroads to the world
2003: How We Did
• Jobs
• Population
• Unemployment
• Personal Income
• Average Wage
• Inflation
anchorage • crossroads to the world
2004: The Year Ahead
Positives
Federal Spending--strong
Confidence Quotient -- cautiously upbeat
Oil Price--high Mining -- lots of action National Economy --
picking up Stock Market--up
Negatives National Economy -- uncertain recovery War on Terrorism-- uncertain Fiscal Gap--unresolved Seafood/Timber-- struggling PFD -- down Interest Rates -- edging up
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Where are the Jobs?
PRIVATE SERVICES
54%
GOVT16%
Military5%
Self Employed
18%GOODS
PRODUCING7%
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Private Service Economy
Trade22%
Professional17%
Health17%
Leisure15%
Transport10%
Finance8%
Other Services6%
Information5%
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Health
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 200417,200
Total Health Jobs
Health care will again lead all industries in adding new jobs to the economy.
+1,000 Jobs
Examples: Providence Hospital
Southcentral Foundation
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Leisure & Hospitality
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 200415,000
Total Leisure and Hospitality Jobs
Several factors will combine to insure a strong year for tourism, so the leisure and hospitality sector will record another year
of strong growth.
+400 Jobs
Examples: Westmark Hotels
McDonalds RestaurantsThe Alaska Club
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Trade
22,000
Total Trade Jobs
Increasing consumer income in Anchorage and throughout the state will provide
the driving force for another year of growth in the trade sector.
+250 jobs
Examples:Wal-Mart Safeway
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Professional & Business Services
17,200Total Professional and Business Services Jobs
Expanding business opportunities will drive job growth in this sector, although a peaking
construction boom will slow the increase from prior years.
+200 Jobs
Examples: Alaska Executive Search
Lounsbury and Associates Inc.
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Other Services
6,100 Total Other Services Jobs
Growing consumer income drives growth in services to households.
+150 Jobs
Examples: Alaska Cleaners Salvation Army
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Transportation & Utilities
10,600Total Transportation and Utilities Jobs
After a loss of jobs last year, we project no change for this sector.
No Change
Examples: Chugach Electric Association
Federal Express
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Finance
8,400Total Finance Jobs
Higher interest rates will hold employment in the finance sector to the same level as last
year.
No Change
Examples: Alaska USA Federal Credit Union
Ribelen Lowell and Company
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Information
4,600Total Information Jobs
No change is expected in jobs in this part of the economy.
No Change
Examples:GCI Communications
Anchorage Daily News
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Natural Resources
2,500Total Natural Resources Jobs
After two years of falling employment, jobs in petroleum and mining will stabilize
and we expect no change.
No Change
Examples: British PetroleumConoco Phillips
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Construction
8,300
Total Construction Jobs
Growing construction spending has been one of the big drivers of the economy for several
years, but its impact is moderating. Activity will remain high, but we expect no change in the level of employment.
No Change
Examples: Neeser Construction Inc.
Spinell Homes Inc
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Manufacturing
1,900
Total Manufacturing Jobs
Manufacturing makes a small contribution to the economy. We expect no change
in jobs this year.
No Change
Examples: Europa Bakery
Anchorage Tank and Welding Inc.
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Government
30,500Total Government Jobs
Federal, state, and local government spending will be tight again this year. Budget cuts will
lead to state and local job losses of 100 compared to last year.
-100 Jobs
Examples: Anchorage School District
US Fish and Wildlife Service
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2002 2003 2004
Recent Job Growth
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Job Growth Summary
-2000
200400600800
1,000
anchorage • crossroads to the world
Concluding Caveat
Federal Spending BubbleState Government Living
Beyond Its MeansOther Economic Drivers
