Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and the

Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM)

Presented by:

Subrat Mahapatra

Maryland State Highway Administration

Presented to:

Second SHRP2 Symposium on

Innovation in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement

October 22, 2013

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Presentation Outline

Freight Movement in MarylandFreight Policies & Performance MeasurementFreight Supply and Demand Analysis ToolsPerformance-Based Planning and Programming

ApproachData and Research Needs

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Acknowledgements

Sabyasachee Mishra, University of Memphis

Mark Radovic, Gannett Fleming, Inc

Keith Kucharek, MD SHA

Debbie Bowden, MDOT

Janie Tiedeman, URS Corp

Freight Movement in Maryland

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Small mid-atlantic state on the east coast of US (42nd in area)

Ranked 19th in Population, 5th in Density (5.8 million people, 2010)

US in microcosm with diverse geography

39 tons of freight per person terminates in Maryland every year

About Maryland

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About Maryland Department of Transportation

MDOT and its five modals oversee all aspects of major transportation in MD.

• SHA operates, maintains and rebuilds the numbered, non-toll routes.

• Two major transit systems: MTA in Baltimore and WMATA in the DC region offer great transit choices.

• MDTA owns and operates the toll roads and bridges.

• Port of Baltimore is the fastest growing port in US .

• BWI Airport served 22.6 million people in 2012.

• MVA takes care of vehicle licensing and registration

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Freight Movement is a critical emphasis area for MD’s economy and vitality

Thrust at federal, state and local level

Maryland’s freight transportation is estimated To grow about 105% by 2035 1.4 billion of total tons 4.98 trillion of $ value transfer

(108% increase from 2006)Sustainability of MD corridors

to meet the future demand

Freight Movement in Maryland

2007

2040

Freight Peak Period Congestion

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Freight Movement in Maryland

Maryland has a diversified freight cargo profile. Freight activity in Maryland is expected to double by

2030.

* Northeast: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, RI,VT Southeast: FL, GA, NC, SC

Within Maryland

Leaving Maryland

Arriving in Maryland

Through Freight*

Weight (million of tons)

135(146)

84(105)

91(136)

52(98)

Value (billion$)92

(126)113

(186) 169

(265)177

(338)

Value/Weight (Thousand $/ton)

0.7(0.86)

1.3(1.77)

1.9(1.95)

3.4(3)

Note: 2030 values are in parenthesis

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External and Internal Freight by Mode

Weight Value Weight Value Weight Value Weight ValueWithin Maryland Leaving MD Arriving in MD Through (NE-SE)

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Truck Rail Multimode Other

Freight Movement in Maryland

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Maryland FAF Zones and Distribution Centers by County

Source: Port of Baltimore

Freight Movement in Maryland

Freight Policies and Performance Measurement

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Freight Policy and Performance

Maryland's economy moves on a balanced freight network.

Ensure that highways, railways, waterways, and airports can handle current level and anticipated growth of goods movement

The Statewide Freight Plan provides a lynchpin for all of the modal freight plans SHA/MDTA’s Freight Implementation Plan MTA’s freight rail Strategic Plan Port of Baltimore Business Plan

Maryland Freight System Annual Report

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Freight Policy & Performance – Broader Questions

• What is the projected demand and how to accommodate it? (increased population, economic activity, new distribution centers etc.)

• Investments in multiple modes (offer choices)

• Improve connectivity between freight modes (distribution and transfer center locations)

Freight Flows (In/Out/Through MD)

Level of Transportation Investments• Limited Funding Scenario

– invest in low cost high benefit projects strategically – focus on reliability thru’ ITS, incident mgmt.

• High Funding Scenario (System Expansion)

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Freight Policy & Performance – Levels of Decision-Making

• Policy Level freight modes and mode shares broader impacts of economy and freight flows location of terminals and distribution centers transportation infrastructure needs

• Project Level design and implement projects to meet current/ future

needs capacity enhancements

• Operational hours and routes for safe and efficient operations small scale geometric improvements bottleneck reduction

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Transportation Infrastructure & Performance

Auto and Truck VMT Trends in MD

2012 Annual User Costs

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

52.2

3

51.2

9

51.8

5

51.3

9

50.9

1

52

51.8

4

52.0

5

4.37 5.33 4.92 4.76 4.72 4.21 4.21 4.35

Truck AMT Auto MT

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Transportation Infrastructure & Performance

MOBILITY

RELIABILITY

BOTTLENECKS

Freight Supply/ Demand Analysis Tools

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Analysis Tools - Statewide Transportation Model

Internal Trips

Trips to/ from MD

Through Trips

Multi-layer travel demand model working at national, statewide and regional levels to forecast and analyze key measures of transportation system

performance.

National

Statewide

Local

MSTM 3-Tiered Approach

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Freight Modeling Process

Bi-level modeling of freight National level (flows in/ out/ thru’ MD) Statewide level (flows inside MD)

FHWA Freight Analysis Framework 3 Commodity Flow Data Used

Commodity Flows allocated to sub-county level origin-destinations

Flows on highways converted from TONS to TRUCKS using payload factors

The model distinguishes- Commercial Vehicles- Medium-Heavy Duty Trucks - Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks

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Freight Modeling Process

Truck trips are generated by- Industrial Employment- Retail Employment- Office Employment- Households

Employment and Households by zones are used as truck generators, and a gravity model is used to distribute truck trips.

Long distance trucks, local trucks and commercial vehicles assigned to the highway network by time of day

Truck Productions

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MSTM Applications – Freight Movement

Performance Measure % Increase (2007-2030)

Auto Trips 12%

Truck Trips 61%

Vehicle Miles of Travel 34%

Vehicle Hours of Delay 67%

Congested Lane Miles 64%

Through Travel (E-E) 52%Year

VMT (million)% Truck

VMTAll

Vehicles Trucks2007 149 11.4 7.62030 194 18.2 9.4

• Truck VMT will increase by 61%• Truck Through Trips will increase from 23% to 34%• Truck Hours of Delay will increase by 70%

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MSTM Applications – Freight Mode Choice

Within MD

Leaving MD

Arriving in MD

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Logistic regression models for different OD and Commodity

Groups

Identify parameters and elasticity to understand supply/ demand

impacts

From To From To From To1 Live animals fish 3 3 15 Coal 3 3 29 Printed prods 1 1

2 Cereal grains 3 3 16 Crude petroleum 3 3 30 Textiles leather 2 2

3 Other ag prods 3 3 17 Gasoline 3 3 31 Nonmetal min. prods 2 34 Animal feed 3 3 18 Fuel oils 3 3 32 Base metals 2 25 Meat seafood 3 3 19 Coal-n.e.c. 2 2 33 Articles-base metal 1 26 Milled grain prods 3 3 20 Basic chemicals 1 2 34 Machinery 2 2

7 Other foodstuffs 3 3 21 Pharmaceuticals 2 1 35 Electronics 2 2

8 Alcoholic beverages 3 3 22 Fertilizers 2 3 36 Motorized vehicles 2 19 Tobacco prods 3 3 23 Chemical prods 1 1 37 Transport equip 2 3

10 Building stone 3 3 24 Plastics rubber 2 1 38 Precision instruments 1 211 Natural sands 3 3 25 Logs 3 2 39 Furniture 3 212 Gravel 3 3 26 Wood prods 3 2 40 Misc. mfg. prods 2 2

13 Nonmetallic minerals 2 2 27 Newsprint paper 1 3 41 Waste scrap 3 314 Metallic ores 1 3 28 Paper articles 2 2 43 Mixed freight 2 2

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MSTM Applications – Freight Scenarios

The statewide model can be applied to study a variety on policy scenarios, such asPricingZoning Infrastructure improvementsChanges in economyExternal variables

Origins of Trucks Using I-95at Susquehanna RiverDonnelly, R. & Moeckel, R. (2013) “Freight mode choice models: a meta-analysis”, Transportation Research Part E, in preparation.

Growth in Port of Baltimore

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Port of Baltimore Access Improvements Study

Use of traffic simulation model to evaluate local and system level impacts of freight projects

• System Efficiency• Effective for

phasing/ staging of projects

• Before/ After Analysis

Performance Based Planning

and Programming Approaches

PROJECT IDENTIFICATION/IMPLEMENTATION

- SHORT TERM PROJECTS (local/ spot improvements)

- LONG TERM PROJECTS (corridor wide/ regional improvements)

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Freight Planning Process

Identify freight “hot spots”

Identify projects to address them

Screen the projects to determine which onesare feasible

Create short andlong term plans

Incorporate intoSHA process

Stakeholder Input

County Priority Letters

HighwayNeeds

Inventory

Screening Criteria

MDOTStatewide

Freight Plan

Previous Studies

Evaluation

Concepts

Short-Term Implementation

Plan

Long-Term Implementation

Plan

PotentialImprovement

Projects

Freight Implementation Planning Process

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Short-Term Implementations for Truck Travel

Annual Average Daily Traffic

Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic

Percentage Trucks

Truck related crashes

Proximity to distribution and intermodal centers

Truck Parking Locations

Safety, congestion, geometric and community impacts from stakeholders

Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic

Freight Hot Spots – High Scores

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GIS Spatial Analysis

Migrate data into centralized location, classify each factor on a scale 0 - 4

Assign each roadway segment a “score” using weighted factors Review hot spots for State Routes, US Routes, and Interstates

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Ongoing and Upcoming Steps

- Continue working on various MDOT/ SHA Freight Initiatives- Policy Analysis- Identify bottlenecks

and analyze improvements

- Track transportation system performance

4. I-95 SB Welcome Center project funded & under construction

- Work with Modals/ MPO/ locals and other stakeholders to support modeling and analysis needs for freight transportation decision-making

Data and Research Needsfrom a State DOT

Perspective

- Use distribution center and truck flow data

- Freight mode choice analysis capabilities

- Looking at the supply chain aspects (door to door)

- Incorporate reliability elements in decision-making

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Data and Research Needs - DOT Standpoint

How do we identify and define freight bottlenecks?

How do we quantify impacts of transportation investments on freight travel?

What is the freight industry telling us and how it impacts transportation decision-making?

How can we improve our policies, programs and projects for safe, reliable and efficient freight movement

Together, Freight Moves…

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Together, Freight Moves…Thank You !!

Contact Information:Subrat MahapatraOffice of Planning and Preliminary EngineeringMD State Highway AdministrationBaltimore, MD

smahapatra@sha.state.md.us 410-545-5649