Analytics – Sports Style

Dean Oliver, Director of Production Analytics

11/4/2011

Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit

WHAT MAKES IT SPORTS ANALYTICS?

Revenue

=

Winning

DECISIONS IN SPORTS

PERSONNEL

COACHING

Short or Long Term?

HOW DOES BASEBALL WORK?

HOW DOES FOOTBALL WORK?

Expected Net Points (10 Yards or Goal To Go)

1st Down

2nd Down

3rd Down

4th Down

OW

N E

ND

ZO

NE

OP

PO

NEN

TEN

D ZO

NE

1 0

1 0

2 0

2 0

3 0

3 0

4 0

4 0

5 0

5 0

4 0

4 0

3 0

3 0

2 0

2 0

1 0

1 0

HOW DOES SOCCER WORK?

HOW DOES BASKETBALL WORK?

Shooting

Rebounding

Free ThrowsTurnovers

SPORTS ANALYTICS RESOURCES

• Baseball– Baseball Abstract, Hidden Game of Baseball

• Football– Hidden Game of Football, ESPN, Football Outsiders

• Basketball– Basketball on Paper, JQAS article

• Soccer– Soccerquantified.com, onfooty.com, dectech.org/blog

/football, 5addedminutes.wordpress.com

SUM OF PARTS AS WHOLE

• Team Performance = Sum of Individual Values + Fit

– Ni is number of players on team of type i

– is the coefficient on the regression

– is the “misfit” of the model, but the “fit” of the team

44332211

Result Team NNNN

• Problems:

• Collinearity

• Not necessarily sum of parts

• How? Why?

TOTAL QBR

• Regression for

– Expected Points

– Win % and “clutch weight”

– Simple division of credit

• Mechanistic evaluation for

– Turnovers

– Complex plays

• Goal: Who is better? Why?

CHICAGO BEARS PROBLEM

• Is it the QB or the line?

– 21st in pass offense, 3rd in sacks allowed

– Jay Cutler 22nd in QBR

• 10th while “under pressure”

• If average pressure: Extra 0.7 ppg

• If Tom Brady-like pressure: Extra 1.3 ppg

• If Tom Brady-like ability: Extra 6-7 ppg

ANALYTICS IN DECISIONS

• People see games better, but statistics see all the games.

• Analytics provide independent opinion.

LANGUAGE DIFFICULTY

• “Bend but don’t break defense”

• “Control the line of scrimmage”

• “Defense wins championships”

• A “great” player, trade, strategy

• “It ain’t over until it’s over.”

QUESTIONS?