Analytical Tools To Assist Climate-Smart Agriculture Policy Making

Analytical Tools

TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING

M A R K W . R O S E G R A N TENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY DIVISIONINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC

analytical toolsTO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015

productivity

resilience/adaptation

low GHGemission

CLIMATE-SMARTAGRICULTURE COMPONENTS


TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

climatesmart?

Yield risk under CC

Yield bounce after shock

GHG emission against baseline

Technology characterization

CLIMATE-SMARTNESS

ProductivityResilience

GHG Emission


CLIMATE-SMARTNESS


GHG EmissionOverall

Decision-makers will need to choose technologies or investments accounting for tradeoffs.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Need for multi-objective decision-making tools that rationalize the evaluation of choices.


WHAT DOES CSA MEAN FOR… the country as a whole? other non-ag land-uses? the global economy?

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITYASSESSMENT


Economicallyviable?

Large-scale effects+ other land-uses

Wide uptake ofCSA options

Policy scenario analysis

CLIMATE-SMARTNESS


GHG EmissionOverall

Global economic forces

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT


WHEREGeospatial Baseline & Targeting

WHICHCommodity Priority Setting

WHATTechnology Characterization & Inventory

+Integrated Impact Assessments

SUPPORTING TOOLS

HOWPolicy Simulation & Scenario-Making Tools


POLICY SIMULATIONEXAMPLE

Simulating the aggregate effects of crop choices by individual risk-averse farmers due to climate change.


AdoptionForum SustainabilityPrioritization

1

2

3

Prioritizingagricultural

commodities according to CSA criteria

Stakeholder engagement and scenario exploration

Economic effects of wide-scale adoption of

CSA

Evaluation of long-term

economic & financial

sustainability

POLICY-MAKING ENABLING ENVIRONMENT


Rainfall and Drought History

Commodity Priority

Setting Tool

Agritech Toolbox

SUPPORTING TOOLSEXAMPLES


CSA INDICATORS FOR COUNTRY LEVELEXAMPLES

Water efficientmanagement

Soil fertility management

TECHNOLOGY

Road quality and density

Accuracy of weather and climate forecasts

INFRA-STRUCTURE

Social safety nets

Planning with CC risk assessment

POLICY


CONCLUDINGREMARKS

CSA forces us to shifts the emphasis from policies that aim at a single targets to policies that have multiple objectives.

CSA changes the planning time horizon: policies and analyses necessarily spanlong time periods of 20-30 years.


CONCLUDINGREMARKS

Therefore, CSA requires the use of integrated modeling frameworks thatwork at multiple geographical scales to:

1) Prioritize investments and provide an accurate understanding of tradeoffs

2) Design long-term economically and politically sustainable policies


CONCLUDINGREMARKS

More importantly, given its complexity, CSA requires an even closer collaboration between policy makers and research community.

Analytical Tools To Assist Climate-Smart Agriculture Policy Making

Environment

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