Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences
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Transcript of Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiencesLEDS Collaboration in Action WorkshopLondon, 21-23 March 2012
Marta TorresEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape
Town (SA)MAPS Research Coordinator
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
The LTMS story• Experience of South African Government mandated Long Term
Mitigation Scenarios (2005-2008)
• Stakeholder-driven approach, reliance on scenarios, rigour of research and modelling
• Provide a robust evidence base that enable South African President to put forward a pledge in Copenhagen, for emissions to 'peak, plateau and decline'
• Informs domestic policy, completed in 2011
• Internationally recognized as world-class best practice
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS Analytics
0
150
300
R 102
Electric vehicles with nuclear, renewables
0
150
300
R 92
Renewables, extended
0
150
300
R 125
Subsidy for renewables
0
150
300
R 20
Nuclear, extended
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
150
300
R 18
Nuclear
0
150
300
R 52
Renewables
0
25
50
R 72
CCS 20 Mt
0
25
50
R 697
Biofuel subsidy
0
25
50
R 1,987
Hybrids
0
25
50
-R 5
Cleaner coal
0
25
50
-R 1,131
Passenger modal shift
0
25
50
R 524
Biofuels
0
25
50
-R 208
SWH subsidy
0
150
300
-R 269
Improved vehicle efficiency
0
25
50
R 607
Electric vehicles in GWC grid
0
25
50
-R 198
Residential efficiency
0
25
50
-R 203
Commercial efficiency
All Medium Wedges
0
150
300 All Small Wedges
0
25
50
0
5
10
R 50
Enteric fermentation
0
5
10
-R 19
Manure management
0
5
10
R 24
Reduced tillage
0
25
50
R 14
Waste management
0
25
50
-R 15
Fire control
0
5
10
R 39
Afforestation
0
5
10R 346
Coal mine methane
0
5
10R 476
Synfuels CCS 2 Mt
0
5
10R 8
Synfuels methane
0
5
10R 0
Aluminium
0
25
50
R 105
Synfuels CCS 23 Mt
0
150
300
450
600
R 42
Escalating CO2 tax
0
150
300Renewables with learning,
extended
R3
0
5
10
-R 4,404
Limit less eff
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
2031
2035
2039
2043
2047
Ran
ds p
er
ton
Other Coal
Other Coal
Existing elec
SasolNew elec
Existing elec
New elec
Sasol
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
• Collaboration amongst developing countries: contribute to common body of knowledge
• Government mandated country-wide assessments to explore pathways to a climate compatible economy
• Establish evidence base for long term transition to robust economies: carbon efficient & climate resilient
• Contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation that aligns economic development with poverty alleviation
MAPS: Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
MAPS Analytics
Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before
mitigation interventions
Assessment of Mitigation Actions
Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions
ExploringApproaches to mapping drivers:• IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES)Modelling approaches• Optimisation/Simulation• Sectoral models: LEAP, MARKAL, MESSAGE,
IMACLIM, GLUE, IFSM, EXACT, asmGHG …• System dynamics• Economy-wide modelingMore analytical tools• Multi-criteria Analysis• Action Impact Matrix (AIM)
…
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Tools, part of many other considerations
Tools&Analysis
Management Information
DecisionRaw data
Ability to answer to key policy questions
Tools
Raw data
…
National context
Legitimacy
Consistency
Evidence Decision
Process design, including a research methodology for
a specific team
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Learnings
Critical question: are your tools able to provide credible and legitimate results that have high utility value for policy-makers?
INSIGHTS
• Country-driven, non-prescriptive methodology, ownership
• No right or wrong tools• Different tools,
different answers• No single model fits
everyone/everything• Best available data
CHALLENGES
• Mitigation in the context of development
• Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time-constrained period
• International negotiations context and country-positions
ENABLERS
• Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement
• Scenario-driven approaches
• High-level mandate• Local experts using
world-class methods
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Main MAPS research work areas
• Socio-economic and environmental implications• Sectoral modeling• Mitigation Action country studies• Equity• Linking• Methodologies (and models): pros, cons,
implications• Policy: context, institutionalization complexes,
implementation• Planning• NAMA/LCDS interface• Mitigation and Poverty: micro and macro• Regional modeling
COLLABORATION
• Discuss, learn, exchange among equals
• Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries
MORE CHALLENGES
• From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence
• Reference case• Unknown technologies and
human behavior patterns• …
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Conclusions• Are tools a bottleneck? A large number of developing and
developed countries currently building plans and scenarios• Tools accessibility important, but not necessarily key to make a
change at country-level. Invest in the people, they will make a transformational change
• Process and research need to work together• Main question for South Africa and MAPS countries is: can
mitigation play a role in achieving socio-economic development goals, and how? --> Linking of GHG sectoral and economy-wide models is crucial for us
• Be able to get consensus, convince your policy-makers: use best research for a credible, legitimate and relevant evidence base
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Thank you!
For more information:MAPS - www.mapsprogramme.org
Marta Torres [email protected]
Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town