Analysys Mason RRN01 Wireless Traffic Forecast Jul2010 TOC

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Wireless network traffic 20102015:

forecasts and analysis

Terry Norman

July 2010

Research forecast report


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Analysys Mason Limited 2010

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis Contents

Slide no. Slide no.

Contents [1]

5. Document map Executive summary

6. The combination of dramatic traffic growth and slowrevenue growth is putting pressure on operator profitmargins

7. Connections will grow at a 8.6% CAGR from 2010 to2015, from 5 billion to more than 7.5 billion

worldwide8. Traffic will grow at a 48% CAGR from 2010 to 2015,

from 225PB per month to 1603PB per month

9. Wireless traffic is growing at a phenomenal rate, butrevenue per megabyte is in decline

10. Document map Recommendations

11. Recommendations [1]

12. Recommendations [2]

13. Document map Forecast

14. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6%CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [1]

15. Global mobile connections will grow at an 8.6%CAGR from 2010 to 2015 [2]

16. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices willincrease in developed markets

17. The proportion of smartphones and MBB devices willincrease in emerging markets

18. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplacewill increase for both voice and data services [1]

19. Use of cellular devices in the home and workplace

will increase for both voice and data services [2]

20. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seventimes greater in 2015 than in 2010 [1]

21. Global traffic from mobile connections will be seventimes greater in 2015 than in 2010 [2]

22. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5times greater in developed markets by 2015 [1]

23. The average volume of traffic per connection will 6.5times greater in developed markets by 2015 [2]

24. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by2013 [1]

25. Data traffic will exceed voice traffic in all markets by2013 [2]

26. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on total

network traffic [1]

27. VoIP traffic will not have a significant impact on totalnetwork traffic [2]

28. Revenue per gigabyte will fall from USD23.21 toUSD4.27 in developed markets

29. The adoption of data services will increase ARPU,but revenue per gigabyte will inevitably fall

30. Document map Market drivers and inhibitors

31. Market drivers

32. Improvements to cellular devices will increaseservice usage and wireless network traffic [1]

33. Improvements to cellular devices will increaseservice usage and wireless network traffic [2]


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Contents [2]


Slide no. Slide no.34. Improved cellular devices will increase service usage

and wireless network traffic [3]

35. Technology enhancements will increase usage andwireless network traffic

36. Technology enhancements improve throughputs,allowing support for a wider range of applications [1]

37. Technology enhancements improve throughputs,allowing support for a wider range of applications [2]

38. More-affordable prices and bundling of services willincrease usage and wireless network traffic

39. New services will increase wireless network traffic [1]

40. New services will increase wireless network traffic [2]

41. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices willincrease wireless network traffic [1]

42. Growth in indoor usage of cellular devices willincrease wireless network traffic [2]

43. Growth in the number of mobile connections willincrease wireless network traffic

44. Market inhibitors

45. Restriction of some types of service and applicationby MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [1]

46. Restriction of some types of service and applicationby MNOs would constrain wireless network traffic [2]

47. Improved fixed broadband services, particularly indeveloped markets, may constrain wireless networktraffic

48. Handover between fixed and mobile in the home,where broadband usage is highest, will take trafficoff-network

49. Spectrum limitations will constrain traffic growth

50. Document map Market definition andmethodology

51. Methodology for forecasts of traffic volume andrevenue per megabyte

52. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [1]

53. The forecasts divide the world into eight regions [2]

54. The basis of the traffic model

55. The traffic model considers traffic from five types ofcellular device

56. A number of variables could significantly affectwireless network traffic levels

57. Environmental assumptions for devices

58. Environmental assumptions for wirelesstechnologies

59. Environmental assumptions for pricing and bundling

60. Environmental assumptions for indoor usage61. Environmental assumptions for the growth in cellular

penetration

62. Environmental assumptions for MNOs constraintson certain types of traffic

63. Environmental assumptions for improvements infixed broadband services


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Contents [3]


Slide no.64. Document map Author and copyright

65. Author

66. Copyright

67. Document map List of tables and figures

68. List of tables and figures [1]

69. List of tables and figures [2]70. List of tables and figures [3]

71. Document map About Analysys Mason

72. About Analysys Mason

73. Research from Analysys Mason

74. Consulting from Analysys Mason


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Document map

Recommendations

Forecast

Market drivers and inhibitors

Market definition and methodology

Author and copyright

List of figures and tables

About Analysys Mason

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis Document map: List of figures and tables

Executive summary


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List of figures and tables [1]

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis List of figures and tables

Figure 1: Comparison of the network economics of legacy and LTE networks

Figure 2: Mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 3: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 4: Average wireless network traffic per connection, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 5: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 20102015


Figure 7: Mobile connections by region, 20102015

Figure 8: Mobile devices in use by type, developed markets, 20102015

Figure 9: Mobile devices in use by type, emerging markets, 20102015

Figure 10: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 11: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 20102015

Figure 12: Traffic from mobile connections, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 13: Traffic from mobile connections, by region, 20102015

Figure 14: Average traffic per mobile connection, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 15: Average traffic per mobile connection, by region, 20102015

Figure 16: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, worldwide, 20102015


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Figure 17: Data services as a proportion of wireless network traffic, by region, 20102015

Figure 18: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 19: VoIP as a proportion of wireless network voice traffic, by region, 20102015

Figure 20: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, worldwide, 20102015

Figure 21: Revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic, by region, 20102015

Figure 22: Major factors driving increases in wireless network traffic from cellular users

Figure 23: Proportion of wireless network traffic that is generated indoors, by region, 20082010


Figure 25: Major factors constraining growth in wireless network traffic from cellular users

Figure 26: Household penetration of fixed broadband services in selected countries, 20102015

Figure 27: Fixed and mobile, mobile-only and fixed-only broadband households in CEE, 20092015

Figure 28: Current spectrum supply and spectrum to be awarded in Europe in the next five years for mobile use

Figure 29: Regional breakdown used in this report

Figure 30: Basis of the wireless network traffic model

Figure 31: Five types of cellular device included in the traffic model


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Table 1: Examples of smartphone applications that could consume substantial amounts of data

Tables 2ab: Summary of advanced cellular broadband technologies

Table 3: Regional breakdown used in this report

Table 4: Traffic modelling assumptions for devices

Table 5: Traffic modelling assumptions for wireless technologies

Table 6: Traffic modelling assumptions for pricing and bundling

Table 7: Traffic modelling assumptions for indoor usage

Table 8: Traffic modelling assumptions for growth in cellular penetration

Table 9: Traffic modelling assumptions for MNOs constraints on certain types of traffic

Table 10: Traffic modelling assumptions for improvements in fixed broadband services


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Document map

Executive summary

Recommendations

Forecast

Market drivers and inhibitors

Market definition and methodology

Author and copyright

List of figures and tables


Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis Document map: About Analysys Mason


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Analysys Mason is the preferred partner of

telecoms, IT and media organisations worldwide.

Through our global presence, we deliver strategy

advice, operations support and market intelligence to

leading commercial and public sector organisations

in more than 80 countries. Our clients rely on our

consulting and research services to make better

business decisions.

The intellectual rigour, operational experience and

insight of our people have helped our clients to meet

some of the toughest challenges they face within the

industry. We have consistently delivered significantand sustainable business benefits to our clients

during the past 20 years on issues ranging

from advising on operator strategy and tactics,

development of national sector regulation, through

execution of major financial transactions, to the

deployment of public and private networkinfrastructure.

We are respected worldwide for the exceptional

quality of our work, our independence and the

flexibility of our teams in responding to client needs.

We are passionate about what we do and are

committed to delivering excellence to our clients.

Analysys Mason offers two types of service:

Consulting: We work with our clients to provide

customised advice and support throughout the

business cycle, helping major players to set

strategy, plan for change and implement that

change. We have worked on a wide range of

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increase revenue, reduce costs, plan for the future

and minimise risk.

Research: We offer research programmes and

custom research to help our clients to identify key

strategic issues, formulate strategies, identifytrends and opportunities, and measure

performance.

For more information visit our website at

www.analysysmason.com.

About Analysys MasonWireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis


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Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis About Analysys Mason

For more information about our research programmes and custom research services, please visit

www.analysysmason.com/research.

Analysys Mason provides a portfolio of research services that help organisations to understand major strategic

shifts, as well as country- and region-specific trends, in the global telecoms industry. Through a combination

of granular market data and forecasts, and independent qualitative analysis and insight, we enable clients to

make informed strategic and tactical decisions, reduce risk and benchmark their business performance.

Analysys Masons research portfolio

Research from Analysys Mason

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Networks

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Care


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Analysys Mason offers consulting services that span the entire business development cycle from strategy

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to make the best possible business decisions on many key issues, including investment, strategy, policy,

procurement, network roll-out and market entry.

Analysys Mason advises clients in many industry sectors

Consulting from Analysys Mason

Wireless network traffic 20102015: forecasts and analysis About Analysys Mason

For more information about our consulting services, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting.

Mobile

operators

Delivering value through

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implementation

Media

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Helping to maximise

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organisations

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implementing policy

frameworks in telecoms

and media markets

Enterprise

users

Helping to maximise

returns from investment

in ICT

Financial

institutions

Supporting vendors, sellers

and financiers of industry

transactions

Fixed

operators

Defining new strategies,

optimising serviceportfolios and supporting

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Analysys Mason RRN01 Wireless Traffic Forecast Jul2010 TOC

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