Analyst Meeting FY 2013ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20140306-PTT-analyst... · 2014-03-06 · *...

Analyst Meeting FY 2013

Millennium Hilton Hotel 6 March 2014

Contents

1

Highlights

Performance

2014 Outlook

Highlights Performance 2014 Outlook

Operation

• Gas sales volume increased 1% despite GSP#5 incident

• Trading margin better from lower condensate discount

• Growing non-oil business • PTTEP’s sales volume and product prices

increased • P&R higher GRM and GIM as well as sales

volume

• Oil business margin squeezed due to average cost increased

• Coal average selling price declined

• PTTGC’s oil spill and LDPE plant shutdown

• GSP#5 incident

Finance

• PTT Group fund raised totally 2,843 MMUSD USD Loan/Bond

• PTT drawn down 310 MMUSD loan and 32,000 MMTHB bond

• Affiliates issued 1,500 MMUSD bond • Credit Rating’s update PTT Group Rating maintain at the same level

• PTT Regional Treasury Center (PTT RTC) awarded “Best Liquidity Management Solutions” from The Asset Triple A (AAA)

• Expand Group Collaboration through Inter-Company Borrowing and Lending (ICBL)

• The Baht abrupt depreciation at year end

Highlights 2013

2


Highlights 2013 (Cont.)

3

1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง 2. Gas resume

3. Stock gain and FX gain

Sustainability PTT remain a member of DJSI World Index 2013-2014 as well as PTTGC’s first time listed despite many incidents occurred TOP listed as a member in DJSI Emerging Market 2013 PTT CFO Academy launched Land Acquisition for

Key Events

Update

Q1/2013 • Established GPSC as a new power BU Q2/2013 • PTT divested it’s 40% investment in PPCL

to PTTGC • PTTEP’s commencement of Montara

Production Q3/2013 • MOE announced LPG retail price uplift • PTTGC signed MoU with Sinochem Group • PTTEP confirmed more gas discovery in

Myanmar Block-M3 • PTT established PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. Q4/2013 • An activation of PTT BCM in response to

political unrest • PTTEP acquired Natuna Sea A from Hess

Q3/2013 • PTTGC unplanned S/D LDPE plant

for 77 days in July, resumed in Sep

• PTTGC’s Oil spill Incident

• PTT’s GSP#5 shutdown from lightning strike in Aug, resumed in Oct

Q4/2013 • Political unrest


10

15

20

Avg. 16.65

Avg. 16.16

LNG:JLC* ($/MMBTU)

* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan

200

400

600

800

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

HDPE Spread PX Spread

25

30

35

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

60

80

100

120

140 Dubai FO

Price Movement

4

Avg. 442

Note: Figures are monthly average

Avg. 109.08

Avg. 31.22

Avg. 105.23

Avg. 105.52

Avg. 577

Avg. 30.86

Avg. 97.52

Dubai vs FO ($/BBL)

HDPE and PX spreads($/Ton) FX (THB/USD)

Dubai

FO


HDPE

Avg. 506 Avg. 570 PX

-4,155 2,742

45,229

29,166

36,168

37,139

18,578

16,956

8,788

8,649

2012 2013

PTTEP

Net Income Performance: 2012 vs 2013

5

94,652

NG sales vol. increased 1% Oil vol. increased 3% Avg. GSP sales vol. decreased 4% Avg. NG gas cost increased 5% Oil margin decrease 11% More loss on NGV

Better spread margins Sales vol. increased 5% THB depreciated 7% Avg. selling price increased 1% Sales vol. increased 6%

PTT

Others

Refinery

Petrochem

Unit : MMTHB

104,608 10%

No loss on impairment of investment or asset

• Total intake increased 5% • Avg. ACC GRM increased 9% • THB depreciated 7%


Contents

6

Highlights

Performance

2014 Outlook


Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)

Product Prices Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume Key Activities

7.95 7.64* 7.59 7.92*

100.33 101.53 103.27 100.15

65.71 64.48** 64.86 65.58**

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Liquid (USD/BBL)

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)

566

238

1,846 1,846

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Unit: MMUSD

188 199 183 192

99 101 93 101

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

300

Liquid

Gas

Unit: KBOED

287

7

QoQ • Sales volume increased from Vietnam16-1 FPSO, Natuna Sea

A project, while average prices slightly decrease. • Net income decreased mainly due to higher loss from income

tax expense, non-recurring items YoY • Sales volume increased mainly from start up of BKT South and

ramp up of S1 from artificial lift technique/ Vietnam 16-1/ Montara / Natuna Sea A

• Net income stable due to high non-recurring items

293

4%

1%

6%

4%

1%

3%

276

5%

* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 7.98$ for Q4 13 and 8.01$ for 2013

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others


2%

** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.4$ for Q4 13 and 66.09$ for 2013

58%

Unchanged

52%

Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP Growth Strategy to 600 KBOED in 2020

**Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume ***Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume


5-Year Avg.Reserves Replacement Ratio ** 0.82x 1 Reserve Life Index (year) *** 7 10

8


Target

PTTEP’s CAPEX Planned 2014 – 2018

~16 bn

USD

26%

Thailand

Other

South East

Asia

North

America

Middle East

& Africa

Australasia

22%

1,131 1,052 1,328 1,229

877 896 922 872

644 660 427 611

870 911 958 930

655 635 623 631 311 308 279 307

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas

NG Sales Volume

NG Customer Profile

2011

2012

2013

4,145 4,330 4,249

3,919

4,284 4,507

4,611 4,746

4,695 4,675

4,488 4,462

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unit: MMSCFD

EGAT (27%)

IPP (18%)

SPP (14%)

GSP (21%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Unit: MMSCFD

4,462 4,488

9

AVG.

4,161

4,537

4,580

GSP - Reference Product Prices

GSP Sales Volume

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

333 333 333 333

837 864 863 842

1,489 1,535 1,380

1,487

1,516 1,537 1,445 1,516

622 627

688 634

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Domestic LPG

Propane (12%)

NGL (12%)

Ethane (33%)

LPG (43%)

Unit : KTon

602 648

2,906 2,690

175 173

727 719

489 509

2,109 2,075

180 177

726 727

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

1,446 1,507

FO 3.5%

6,468

4,580

1% 1%

4%

4,537 6,211


4%


8.66 8.57

7.73

8.54

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

10% 1%

Key Activities

Gas Business Performance

10

QoQ

• NG volume decreased from 4,488 mmcfd to 4,462 mmcfd mainly from lower demand from EGAT due to cold weather

• EBITDA increased from higher volume of GSP#5 together with a drop in operating expenses , despite more loss in NGV

YoY

• NG volume increase from 4,537 mmcfd to 4,580 mmcfd mainly from new 8 SPPs from Y 2012

• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss on NGV and lower margin from industry

Gas Business EBITDA

Unit: MMTHB

52,266

12,381

Others

TM

S&M

GSP

45,098

10

QoQ

• Lower NGV Sales volume from closing NGV station during political demonstration

YOY

• Sales volume increased by 10%, also, feed cost increased

• No Government subsidy, while special discount given to public transportation customers

NGV Sales Volume

Unit : Approx. KTon/Day

Vol. MMCFD 311 308 278 307

14%

12%

11,076

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

NGV



2012 2013

16%

30%

41%

55%

-42%

GSP

Capacity (MTA)

6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7

New Supply

PTTEP (M9)

6.7 6.7

Gas Business Roadmap

11

LNG Ph#2

Pipeline Capacity

(MMSCFD) 4,380 7,180 7,180 5,780 7,180

LNG Capacity

(MTA)

5 5 10 10 5 5

• Offshore compressor

• BVW#7 compressor unit4


Overview Performance 2014 Outlook

• 4th onshore

• Nakhon Sawan • 4th onshore

Midline compressor

• Nakhon Ratchasima

7,180

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unit : MMSCFD

Power- EGAT

- IPP

- SPP

GSP

IndustryNGV

60%

20%

13%

9%

7%

18%

15%

58%

6%

5,826 6,031

23,035 23,821

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

524 535 1,831 2,164 2,510

1,553

13,603 11,197

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

3,250 3,034

15,929

13,361

0.72 0.66

0.86 0.77

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Oil Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin 1/ Oil BU - EBITDA

Sales Volume 2/ Key Activities

Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

1/ Excluded non–oil business

12

QoQ

• Better sales volume from aviation and diesel during travelling season

• Lower margin from capped diesel price as well as higher ethanol cost

YoY

• Higher sales volume mainly from gasoline and aviation

• Lower margin from higher ethanol cost and higher stock loss • Continuously growing non-oil business performance

Oil

Non-Oil

3%

11%

2/ Only PTT and PTTRM

8%

16%

7%

4%



962 1,541

4,280

5,426

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

27%

60% 0.06

0.09

0.06 0.08

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

33% 50%

16,784 16,842

68,342 67,208

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

International Trading Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*


Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard

13

QoQ

• Sales volume maintain at the same level • Higher margins from better selling prices in accordance with

global oil market prices YoY • Lower sales volume from out – in transactions • Better margins from lower domestic condensate discount

0.3%

2%

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard



Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

3.33 0.95

-0.32

0.55

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

2%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

95% 93% 90%

94%

3.67 2.03

4.50 3.77

7.39

3.81 4.35 4.75

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

106.3 106.8 109.1

105.5

GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)

Refinery Intake Key Activities

Refining Business Performance

Unit : MMTHB

740

Unit : KBD

BCP

IRPC

SPRC

TOP

BCP

SPRC

TOP

Aggregated Util.

14

QoQ • Mkt GRM decreased mainly due to decline of gasoline spread from

lower seasonal demand • A/C GRM decreased from lower stock gain • PX price decreased from lower PTA productions and increasing supply

in Indonesia • BZ price increase due to tight supply in EU & US and high Styrene

Monomer demand in festive season

2013 • A/C GRM slightly increased mainly from stock gain • A/C GIM improved from BZ spread due to tightening supply • Higher utilization rate • FX Loss form Baht depreciation at year end

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

A/C GRM

A/C GIM

Mkt GRM

Dubai

699 735

11.13

7.36 7.78

22%

5% 1%

6.37

733

86%


34%

1,654

12,197

20,313 19,850

Highlights Performance Q1/2014 Outlook

Stock Gain/Loss

Refinery upgrading (TOP): HCU Revamp • COD: Q1/2014 Emission Improvement Project (EIP): • COD: Q1/2014 CDU-3 Crude Preheat Train Improvement: • COD: Q3/2014 Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB): TPX JV with Mitsui 75:25 • Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher valued

product • COD: 2015 TOP SPP: (2 blocks of SPP) • COD: 2016 Solvent Expansion(SAKC): COD Q2/2014

UHV : Progress 52%, Under construction, piling and

foundation; COD expected in Q3/15

Refinery : Replacing new CDU (100KBD) in 2014 Solar: Completion of 118 MW of Solar Power Plants in 2014 Biodiesel Plant #2 - 0.45 ML/ day of Biodiesel Production capacity • Expected COD: 2015

Refinery Project Update

15



To be updated

Petrochemical Business Performance

Spread Margins Net Income (100%)

Key Activities

Unit : MMTHB

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

6,766 PTTGC

HMC Polymers

37,478

10,352

16

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha

Others

11%

30% 14%

33,290


3% 35%

QoQ • Olefin prices increased due to tight supply and improved demand • PX price decline due to increased supply & soften demand • Although utilization increased from Q3 (I-4/1 & LDPE S/D), Lower

sales volume from soften demand

2013 • Spread margin increased from higher demand following better

sentiment of US and EU economies • Sales volume increased despite GSP#5 shutdown • FX Loss form Baht depreciation at year end


Add PP, BZ

HDPE-Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

BZ-Naphtha

PP- Naphtha

565 582

427

556 592 585

491

584

333 328 255

373

544 465

550

552

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

PX-Naphtha

Sales Volume

78% 94%

89% 89%

Unit : KTon

PTTGC – Olefin & Derivatives

HMC-PP

Phenol/Acetone/BPA

PTTGC - BTX

Olefin Chain Util.

91% 93%

87% 90%

Aromatics Chain Util.

514 529

1,985

2,045

Q3/13 Q4/23 2012 2013

878 973

3,576

3,773

Q3/13 Q4/23 2012 2013

3% 3% 6%

QoQ • Olefin prices increased due to tight supply and improved demand • PX price decline due to increased supply & soften demand • Utilization increased from Q3 due to GSP#5 resumption,

resulting to higher sales volume

2013 • Spread margin increased from higher demand following better

sentiment of US and EU economies • Olefin sales volume increased due to PTTAC COD since Jan 2013 • Aromatics sale volume increase due to Aromatics planned S/D in

2012 • FX Loss from Baht depreciation at year end

11%

Synergy: • Pure H2 via New PSA : COD Q2/2014 • Off gas upgrading at olefins : COD Q4/2014 Debottlenecking & Expansion: 1) BV Project • 75 KTA of Butadiene, 25 KTA of Butene-1 • COD: Q4/13 2) TOCGC Plant Improvement Project • Increases EOE capacity by 90 KTA from 336 KTA to 426 KTA • COD : Q3/15 3) PX Expansion • Increases ARO II capacity from 655 to 770 KTA • COD: Q4/15 4) PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking • 12% Olefins increase • COD: 2016 5) Phenol 2 • 250 KTA of Phenol, 155 KTA of Acetone • COD: Q3/15

PBS 20 KTA • Start construction in Q1/2013 • Expected COD: 2015

Petrochemical Project Update

17



To be updated

3.2 (4.9)

108.5

9.4

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%)

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMUSD

70 70

88

73

50 40

55

48

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

Unit : USD/Ton

Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013

2,915

Unit : KTon

3,334 Jembayan

Sebuku

18

Selling price

Cash Costs

10,818

0.1%

20% 13%

17%

>100% 91%

3%

11,187

*unaudited


14%


QoQ • Cash cost was lower since outsourcing and staff costs decreased

from closing office in Perth • Performance decreased mainly from an increase in depreciation

expense YoY • Sales volume slightly increased due to committed agreement • Performance dropped following lower selling price and higher

depreciation expense from Sebuku’s Northern Lease area • Lower cash cost from cost reduction initiative in both Sebuku and

Jembayan mines

http://www.straitsasia.com/


SAR Project Update

19



2014 Operation Plan Highlights:

• Continue cost reduction initiative program under

downturn market

• Mine plan optimization for fully utilized the coal

resources

• Corporate reorganization to improve working

efficiency and as part of cost reduction program

• Study on lower quality coal market to define new

product that increases SAR resources optimization

378 294

1,145

Q3/13 Q4/13 2013

Moving Forward (Capacity) Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMBaht Unit : MW

Unit : KMWh

20

QoQ • Higher power sales volume from Sriracha plant S/D and higher

sales to EGAT • Higher steam sales volume to customers • Lower income from lower EGAT selling price in winter and

higher admin costs

52%

22%

Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%)

1,934 2,126

7,850

1,169 1,214

4,496

Q3/13 Q4/13 2013

1,521 2,089

267

Current Next Step*

1,553

2,356

Renewable

Conventional

Unit : KTon

10% (Power)

4% (Steam)

32



* Business Plan 2557 (@ 25 Dec 2013) (To be revised)



GPSC Project Update

21



Update Progress (Q4-2013)

Purchase 51% share in IRPC clean power (IRPCCP) from IRPC

Complete transfer share of 4 power assets from PTT/PTTI

Combined Heat and Power Producing Company Limited (CHPP)

Bang Pa-In Cogeneration Company Limited (BIC)

Thai Solar Renewable Company Limited (TSR)

Natee Synergy Company Limited (NSC)

Highlight Activities 2014 (planning)

Transfer share of the rest 3 power assets from PTT/PTTI

Ratchaburi Power Company Limited (RPCL)

NavaNakorn Electricity Generating Company Limited (NNEG)

Nam Lik 1 Power Company Limited (NL1PC)

GPSC Initial Public Offering Readiness

Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

106.3 106.8 109.1

105.5

723,152 749,995

2,793,833 2,842,688

Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013

56,691 58,984

227,843 228,972

Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013

30,877 15,392

104,608 94,652

Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013 10.81 5.32 36.59 33.07

PTT Consolidated Performance: 2013

22

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

2013

72%

17%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

71%

20%

6% 3%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

31%

39% 18%

9% 3%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA

2%

4%

0.5%

4%

50%

10%


650,561

740,649

506,804

537,929

328,813

362,774

143,333

160,370

729,896

823,178

437,344

468,507

462,271

510,037

12.3 12.5

0.4 0.4

1.4 1.4

2012 2013

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets L/T

Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

Unit: MMTHB

Cash & S/T

Invest

Increased assets :

• PTTEP’s Assets

• 4th

Onshore pipeline

• Nakonsawan pipeline

Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0

Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0

ICR*

Strong Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13

1,629,511

1,801,722

11%

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured

23

*ICR = EBITDA/Interest Expense


7.71 8.75

13.43

22.40

30.5734.14 34.82

18.3321.06

29.58

36.64

33.07

2.50 2.85 4.006.75

9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50

10.2513.00 13.00 13.00

32.4%32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 39.3%

1 1 11 1 1

Dividend Policy & Historical Payments

24

PTT’s minimum payout ratio

PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income

UNIT : Baht / share

EPS

DPS

Dividend payout


25

PTT Group Performance : 2013


% share

Unit : MMTHB Y2012 Y2013 YoY Y2012 Y2013 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 45,229 29,166 -36% 45,229 29,166 -36%

E&P - PTTEP 57,316 56,155 -2% 65.29% 36,168 37,139 3%

Petro. Business 37,926 32,854 -13% 18,578 16,956 -9%

- PTTGC 34,449 32,841 -5% 48.89% 16,796 16,772 0%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC3,477 13 -100% 40-50% 1,782 184 -90%

Refining 20,701 20,411 -1% 8,788 8,649 -2%

- TOP 12,656 10,854 -14% 49.10% 6,391 4,738 -26%

- IRPC -755 849 n.m. 38.51% -385 1,265 n.m.

- SPRC 4,497 3,977 -12% 36.00% 1,591 1,393 -12%

- BCP 4,303 4,731 10% 27.22% 1,191 1,253 5%

Others Business

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-5,951 -2,701 55% 100% -6,005 -2,854 52%

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 2,531 3,520 39% 50-100% 900 2,600 n.m.

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 1,941 2,577 33% 20-30% 617 882 43%

Oil & Oth.- PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 549 2,481 n.m. 33-100% 333 2,019 n.m.

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 114,513 115,172 1% 59,379 65,486 10%

PTT Conso. Net Income 160,242 144,463 -10% 104,608 94,652 -10%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

Contents

26

Highlights

Performance

2014 Outlook


: - US Economics Recovery

: - IMF forecast ASEAN-51 GDP growth in 2014 around 5.1%

: - US QE Tapering effect to SEA’s Currencies Weaken

27

Economic 2014 Outlook : Challenges ahead 2014

• New Financial Policy in China • Chinese try to support Yuan as a global currency Japan continues its stimulus policies • BOJ will pursuit a full-stream quantitative easing program

• Thai Baht appreciation will effect Thai Exporter • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%

US Market : will see the better growth in 2014

: - Effect from QE Tapering

EU market: pass the worst, recovery is still modest : - EU Economy tends to recover from recession

: - EU has a risk on stagnation

China market: cooling down growth : - Sustain their growth rate around 7.4% in Y2014

Thailand market: Political Impasse Drags On Much Longer Than Expected : - Export growth according to global economies recovery

: - How to solve rice mortgage scheme - Prolong of political conflicts - THB depreciate as fund outflow

27

AEC market : keep an eyes on

1 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

: - China Economic Growth Continues to Cool - Chinese Credit Controls : slower sustainable growth


PTT Performance: On Track : - Performance tends to have minimal impact

: - Hanging Issue: on LPG and NGV Pricing Capped

109.8

116.2

122.5

117.3

107.3

94.4

99.2

108.6 111.2

106.3 107.3

106.3 107.6 111.5

105.6

101.7 100.3

100.3

103.5 107.1 108.3

106.6

105.9

107.9

104.0

104.5 103.9

102.4 102.0

102.9 103.13 103.63

104.00 103.75

104.75 104.88

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-…

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-…

Sep-1

2

Oct

-12

Nov-…

Dec-

12

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-…

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Aug-…

Sep-1

3

Oct

-13

Nov-…

Dec-

13

Jan-1

4

Feb-1

4

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-…

Jun-1

4

Jul-14

Aug-…

Sep-1

4

Oct

-14

Nov-…

Dec-

14

WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM)

Market 2014 Outlook : Crude Oil

28 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (24.02.2014)

Impact from Cold Snap in US

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) geopolitical

uncertainty especially in Libya and South-Sudan

IMF forecast GDP Growth 3.7% mainly from Advanced

Countries

Dubai crude oil price in 2014 is expected to be around 100-105 USD/BBL

Forecast

Monthly Avg. Crude Oil

Significant production growth from shale oil/gas assets

Ongoing negotiation with P5+1 to relax more economic sanction of Iran

Refineries Maintenance in Q ’1

Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL


Market 2014 Outlook : Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

29

EIA’s projected HH Price in 2014 is 4.17 USD/MMBTU ( 0.44 USD/MMBTU)

• At the end of 2013, 4 LNG Export Projects, total capacity 45 MTPA, have been approved by DOE to transport

US gas to NON-FTA countries (Sabine Pass LNG, Freeport LNG, Lakes Charles LNG and Cove Point LNG). If all

projects are built, US will be ranked as 3rd largest LNG export country (1st Qatar, 2nd Australia)

• More than $ 70 Billion is expected to invest and to rejuvenate US Petrochemical industry as result of

affordable gas price and feedstock.

• Shale and other unconventional gas supplies should keep US gas balances in surplus for the foreseeable

future until LNG export projects as well as petrochemical complexes have been built and started production

in 2016 onward.


• Impact of US Freezing Temperature

• US aim to be 3rd largest LNG export country

Significant production growth from shale gas assets

US LNG Project List : Rank by DOE’s application order

Source : Short term 2014 Outlook, February 2014 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT

Non-FTA approved

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0


Fukushima Daiichi Incident

Last Nuclear Power Plant in Japan was shutdown

$/MMBTU

Actual JKM Price

Forward JKM Price

Winter Season Winter Season Winter Season

Average JKM Price 2013 = 16.548 $/MMBtu

AVG. JKM Price in 2014 is expected approximately 16-17 USD/MMBTU

• Strong Winter Demand from North Asia

• Fewer Reload Cargoes from Europe to Asia

due to higher demand since EU Economic

recover.

• Uncertainty of Japan Nuclear Policy to restart

Nuclear Power Plant

Other Source of Supply come to market (African Cargoes) Alternative fuel will replace LNG demand when JKM price keep higher.

Market 2014 Outlook:Asia LNG Spot Price (JKM : Japan Korea Marker)

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Market 2014 Outlook : GRM

Strong Winter Demand

Limited Net Capacity addition as refinery closure in Japan, Australia & Project postponement in China/India

Expect Less Chinese export as government impose import tax on Biodiesel

31 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (February 2014)

Singapore GRM in 2014 is estimated to be around 5-6 USD/BBL

Forecast

GO

Mogas

FO

Impact from Jubail Refinery in Saudi Arabia (400 KBD)

Close Arbitrage to move gasoil cargo west on mild winter in Europe


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oc

t-1

3

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oc

t-1

4 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oc

t-1

3

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oc

t-1

4

Y 2014

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 580-680 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 600-700 USD/TON

• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 330-430 USD/TON

• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 360-460 USD/TON

Market 2014 Outlook : Petrochemical

32

Unit :USD/ton

Source: PRISM Estimated

Olefins Aromatics

New PX Capacity in South Korea, China, India and Singapore

Keep an eye on Indonesian Economics due to sentiment on Rupiah value

Spread Spread

Naphtha

PX

BZ

Y2014


Olefins spreads tend to slightly higher while PX spreads lower

Tighten supply from Propylene Plant T/A

Higher PE Demand from Chinese restocking after Chinese New Year

Light Feed in US will help to support Benzene Market

Key Takeaways

33


2013 • Despite many incidents, overall sales volume increased

• Better spread margin on Petrochemical products

• LPG cooking retail price lifting since September 2013

• Financial performance was affected by THB depreciation and

regulated businesses

2014 • Brighter outlook of PTT mainly from

o Increasing Gas Demand and New Supply from M9 o Back to normal of GSP Unit 5

• Better sign on LPG/NGV price lifting

• Initial Public Offering of GPSC and SPRC

• Continue political unrest beyond Q2/2014

Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information

contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial

performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future

events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially

from those projected.

Disclaimer

Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information

In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange

and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum

Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s

best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its

proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources

data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This

presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated

otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering

data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known

reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.

Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data

suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.

Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date,

to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable.

The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/

http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

106.3 106.8

723,152 749,995

Q3/2013 Q4/2013

56,691 58,984

Q3/2013 Q4/2013

30,877

15,392

Q3/2013 Q4/2013 10.81 5.32

PTT Consolidated Performance: Q4/2013

35

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

Q4/2013

73%

16%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

69%

22%

3% 6% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

36%

33% 27%

4% -0.4%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA

4%

50%

4%

36

PTT Group Performance : Q4/2013

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q3/13 Q4/13 QoQ Q3/13 Q4/13 QoQ

PTT Net operating Income 7,320 5,600 -23% 7,320 5,600 -23%

E&P - PTTEP 17,805 7,428 -58% 65.29% 11,853 5,089 -57%

Petro. Business 10,352 6,330 -39% 4,817 4,140 -14%

- PTTGC 9,610 6,984 -27% 48.89% 4,589 4,115 -10%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC742 -654 -188% 40-50% 228 25 -89%

Refining 12,197 2,215 -82% 5,439 621 -89%

- TOP 7,609 447 -94% 49.10% 3,898 0 -100%

- IRPC 1,048 807 -23% 38.51% 393 369 -6%

- SPRC 2,181 194 -91% 36.00% 800 68 -92%

- BCP 1,359 767 -44% 27.22% 348 184 -47%

Others Business

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE75 -1,050 n.m. 100% 90 -1,334 n.m.

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 1,060 711 -33% 50-100% 642 384 -40%

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 611 608 0% 20-30% 178 186 4%

Oil & Oth.- PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 633 737 16% 33-100% 548 610 11%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 42,733 16,854 -61% 23,567 9,792 -58%

PTT Conso. Net Income 50,053 22,579 -55% 30,887 15,392 -50%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

37

Free Cash flow

-3,079 69,963

Investing

2012 -178,083

2013 -95,364

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -116,623 -114,457

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -86,758 -11,256

Dividend/Interest Received 15,758 18,488

Others 9,540 11,861

Operating

2012 175,004

2013 165,327

Net Income 104,608 94,652

Changes in assets & liabilities -25,141 -25,592

Income Tax -40,783 -45,822

Non-Cash Adjustment 120,655 126,342

Interest-net 15,665 15,747

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

136,924 157,683

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

116,140 136,924

Cash In/(Out)

20,784 20,759

Adjustment

-3,862 6,586

37

Financing 27,725 -55,790

Repayment Loans -122,419 -76,726

Interest paid -20,249 -20,089

Dividend paid -42,308 -46,367

Received from share issue 37,413 280

Received from loans/Bonds 175,288 87,112

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for 2013 & 2012

38

Free Cash flow

-5,831 59,573

Financing 2,103 -43,214

Repayment Loans -35,043 -55,754

Interest paid -12,166 -13,472

Dividend paid -34,261 -37,116

Received from share issue - -

Received from loans/Bonds 83,573 63,128

Investing

2012 -65,729

2013 16,981

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -20,433 -22,912

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -61,585 -4,281

Dividend/Interest Received 31,329 37,880

Others -15,040 6,294

Operating

2012 59,898

2013 42,592

Net Income 74,697 63,988

Changes in assets & liabilities -3,380 -12,063

Income Tax -3,725 -2,276

Non-Cash Adjustment -14,392 -15,199

Interest - net 6,698 8,142

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

47,642 63,927

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

51,341 47,642

Cash In/(Out)

-3,699 16,285

Adjustment

29 -74

38

Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2013 & 2012 (PTT Only)

170,816 188,102 181,399229,606 221,201 208,298

72,337100,069 125,972

162,090215,507 259,665

31 De c 11 31 De c 12 31 De c 13 31 De c 11 31 De c 12 31 De c 13

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB

39

: Cost of debts ~ 4.57 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 81.69 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.55 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.38 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 77.41 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 7.78 years

243,153

(30%)

(70%)

(35%)

(65%)

288,171 307,371

(41%)

(59%)

391,696

(41%)

(59%)

436,708

(49%)

(51%)

(55%)

(45%)

467,963 USD

THB

Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2013 (THB/USD = 32.9494 THB/JPY = 0.31587) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 36.44% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

40

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd GPSC 30.10% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 31 Dec 2013

International Investment

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%

PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%

Indigenous (20%)

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 77 KBD

861 KBD (**)

Source: PTIT

Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 1006 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 102 KBD

(**) Not included Inventory

KBD = Thousand Barrels per day

Import (80%)

Crude/ Condensate 868 KBD

Refined Products 1006 KBD*

Domestic

Crude/ Condensate 212 KBD

Supply Production Sales

Export

238 KBD

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan – Dec 2013

238 KBD

Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply

Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD

PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD

(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)

Refined Products 212 KBD

41

Crude Export 26 KBD

945KBD

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2013

Gulf of Thailand (75%)

Power (59%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Petrochemical Feedstock

(15%)

Industry Household

Transportation (6%)

Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL

LPG/NGL

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

3,468 MMSCFD

Main driver of the Thai economy

Supply Production Sales

42

LNG20%

Myanmar80%

Chevron 32%

PTTEP 27%

Others 41

Bypass Gas 1,039

MMSCFD

930 MMSCFD (21%)

Methane 1,499 MMSCFD

Onshore (3%)

113 MMSCFD

6 GSPs Total Capacity

2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat

Import (22%)

1,021 MMSCFD

43

Natural Gas Price Structure : 2013

Customers1 Sales Price Structure

Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +

Power Producers 60%

: EGAT 28%

: IPP 19%

: SPP 13%

Average Purchased Gas Price

1.75%

1.75%

9.33%

21.9 Bt/MMBtu

GSP 20% Charged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price

Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil

Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg

Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas

Export Cooking Gas

Capped at 333 USD/ton

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

1 As at October, 2013

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 3% : GSP ~ -1% : Industry ~ 2% : NGV ~ 3%

44

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

11 1 1 1 1 1

Source : PTT

Power

GSP

Industry

78%

21%

8%

2,635

14%

13%

12%

59% 67%

14%

NGV

8%

6%

6,462MMscfd

Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand

45

Commercial Primary Energy Consumption

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 25 Feb 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

34%

35%

16%

13%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

Hydro/Import

KBD

27%

38%

17%

4%

13%

Renewable

2%

3,602

3,184

2,758

2,280

1,863

32%

40%

14%

12% 2%

29%

39%

16%

3% 13%

30%

40%

15%

2%

13%

1% Nuclear

Gas Business Generates Stable Returns

Sole owner and operator of entire

gas transmission pipelines in

Thailand (3,752 km), a regulated

business

• IRROE ranges between

12.5% - 18% for transmission

pipeline investment

Supply & marketing of natural gas

provides fixed margin with long-term

contracts of 25-30 years

6 Gas Separation Plants; Total

production 6.7 MTA; are on

petrochemical market price-linked

profit sharing basis

Highlights Gas transmission pipeline capacity

Phu Hom

Nam Phong

Thailand

Ban I Tong

Ratchaburi

Nakhon Sawan

SBK

NBK

The Luang

Nakhon Ratchasima

Kaong Khoi

Samut Prakan

ESB

Bang Pakong

Khanom

Songkhla

Sadao

Yadana

Yetagun

Chon Buri

Rayong

Wang Noi

Thai-Malaysia

(JDA)

Arthit

Arthit–FPSO Erawan

Pailin Bongkot

South Bongkot

Chevron–Additional

Platong

Tantawan

Benchamas

Natural gas fields

Power plants Gas separation plant

1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong

Gas separation unit 4

in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Existing pipeline

Future pipeline

Andaman Sea

46

Analyst Meeting FY 2013ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20140306-PTT-analyst... · 2014-03-06 · *...

Documents

Transcript of Analyst Meeting FY 2013ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20140306-PTT-analyst... · 2014-03-06 · *...