analysis quarterly 16 - Energy.gov...analysis review quarterly vto anl energetics lbnl ornl nrel snl...
Transcript of analysis quarterly 16 - Energy.gov...analysis review quarterly vto anl energetics lbnl ornl nrel snl...
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analysisreview
quarterly
vtoanl
energeticslbnlornlnrelsnl
sra/sentechta engineering
dave gohlke, rachael nealer, jake wardjosh auld, amgad elgowainy, jarod kelly, eric rask, aymeric rousseau, tom stephens, michael wang, joann zhoualicia birkymark delucchi, anand gopal, sam saxena, margaret taylorstacy davis, zhenhong lin, changzheng liuaaron brooker, jeff gonder, marc melaina, mark singerbecky levinson, todd west russ campbell, karen sikesjim moore, charles taylor
19 september 2016
16.33 Q 2 0 1 6
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline
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energy markets
gasoline prices> EIA: Gasoline prices continue to be at lowest levels in a decade> FOTW: Price difference between regular and premium gasoline is growing
oil markets/production> FOTW: U.S. crude oil production highest in central U.S.> FOTW/EIA: Petroleum imports at lowest point in years> FOTW/EIA: Petroleum exports at highest point in years> EIA: Crude oil exports now delivered beyond just Canada
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gasoline pricesEIA: Lowest Labor Day gasoline prices in 12 years; higher prices than at beginning of year>
4Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=27792
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gasoline pricesFOTW: Price difference between regular and premium gasoline has grown each year since 2011>
5Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-928-june-6-2016-price-difference-between-regular-and-premium-gasoline-has-grown
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oil productionFOTW: U.S. crude oil production highest in central states>
6Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-933-july-11-2016-texas-north-dakota-and-gulf-mexico-account-two-thirds-us-crude
Rank State Production
1 Texas 3,457
2Federal Offshore (Gulf of Mexico)
1,540
3 North Dakota 1,174
4 California 553
5 Alaska 483
Total 9,430
Thousand barrels per day, 2015
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oil marketsFOTW: More petroleum imports from Canada than all of OPEC since 2014>
7Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-934-july-18-2016-opec-accounts-less-one-third-us-petroleum-imports
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oil marketsFOTW: Net petroleum imports at lowest point since 1985>
8Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-935-july-25-2016-volume-net-petroleum-imports-are-lowest-point-1985
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oil marketsFOTW: Petroleum imports at lowest point in over a decade, petroleum exports near all-time high>
9Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-926-may-23-2016-petroleum-imports-below-200-billion-lowest-point-over-decade
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oil marketsEIA: Crude oil exports (outside of Canada) increased this year; Canada now less than half of all exports>
10Source: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2016/160810/includes/analysis_print.cfm
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline
2
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automotive markets
LDV market> ANL: Light trucks continue to outsell cars in the U.S.> CAR: Generation X car purchasing rates now similar to Baby Boomers
PEV market> ANL: EV sales set all-time monthly highs this summer> EV Volumes: EV sales up worldwide> FOTW: California has most EV registrations> FOTW: EVs available in many size classes; sales strong as gas prices fall
hybrid sales> Vincentric: Hybrid TCO higher than conventional ICE for many models> WSJ: Japanese Prius sales going strong with newest model
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LDV marketANL: Light trucks have outsold cars since August 2013; 60% of sales in 2016>
13Source: Y. Zhou, Argonne National Laboratory
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LDV marketCAR: Generation X car purchasing rates now similar to Baby Boomer generation>
14Source: http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=138
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LDV marketEdmunds: Vehicle leasing at all-time high; some luxury vehicle segments have over half of new vehicles leased>
15Source: http://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/h1-2016-lease-report.pdf
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EV marketANL: EV sales set all-time monthly record high in the United States each month this summer>
16Source: http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/project/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates
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EV marketEV Volumes: EV sales up worldwide; China now biggest market>
17Source: http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-plug-in-vehicle-sales-h1-2016/
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EV marketFOTW: California continues to lead in PEV registrations; lower uptake in most Midwestern and Southern states>
18Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-936-august-1-2016-california-had-highest-concentration-plug-vehicles-relative
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EV marketPolk / Auto Alliance: PEV sales in Georgia plummeted after tax credit ended; monthly data online by state>
19Source: http://www.zevfacts.com/sales-dashboard.html
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EV marketFOTW: EV share grew in most vehicle size classes even as gasoline prices fell>
20Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-930-june-20-2016-subcompact-plug-vehicle-sales-reached-4-subcompact-sales
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EV marketFOTW: Larger EVs gaining prominence in market as new models are released>
21Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-931-june-27-2016-plug-electric-vehicles-were-available-nine-different-size
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EV marketCSRA: OEM cash rebates similar in ZEV and non-ZEV states>
22Source: R. Campbell, CSRA International
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hybrid costsVincentric: Many HEVs have higher total cost of ownership than comparable ICE vehicles>
23Source: http://vincentric.com/Home/Industry-Reports/Hybrid-Analysis-2016
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hybrid costsWSJ: New Toyota Prius model selling well in Japan, not in U.S.>
24Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-prius-pays-price-for-cheap-gasoline-1473149470
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline
3qar
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technologies studies
vehicle technologies> ORNL: Some technologies available in cars/trucks faster than projected> Chetan Sharma: More cars added to 4G networks than phones
EV batteries and infrastructure> FOTW: EV ranges increasing, PHEV total range similar to most ICEVs> RMI: Smart charging could smooth daily electric grid load
fuels and engines> DOE/FOTW: Engine compression ratio has increased over last few
decades while typical octane levels remained the same
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vehicle technologiesORNL: Advanced fuel-saving technologies are being incorporated into cars faster than expected>
27Source: Z. Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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vehicle technologiesORNL: Advanced fuel-saving technologies are being incorporated into trucks faster than expected>
28Source: Z. Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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vehicle technologiesChetan Sharma: More cars than phones added to U.S. mobile networks this year>
29Source: http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq12016.htm
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vehicle dependabilityJD Power: New vehicles reached best-reported reliability in MY2010>
30Source: http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/2016-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds and older press releases
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battery capacityFOTW: Total battery capacity grows, while capacity hybrid packs decline>
31Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-937-august-8-2016-total-battery-capacity-all-plug-electric-vehicles-sold
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EV rangeFOTW: All-electric vehicle ranges have increased since first introduced to U.S. market>
32Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-938-august-15-2016-median-all-electric-vehicle-range-grew-73-miles-model-year
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EV rangeFOTW: Some all-electric vehicles, and most hybrids have comparable driving range to gasoline ICE vehicles>
33Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-939-august-22-2016-all-electric-vehicle-ranges-can-exceed-those-some-gasoline
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EV rangeMIT: 87% of daily travel nationwide could be satisfied by 73-mile range BEV>
34Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.112
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infrastructureRMI: Optimized charging can smooth electric demand>
35Source: http://www.rmi.org/evs_as_ders
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fuels and enginesVTO: Historically there had been tight coupling between engine compression ratio and fuel octane level, this has diverged since 1980
>
36Sources: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/downloads/vehicle-technologies-office-merit-review-2016-overview-doe-fuel-and-0 and http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-940-august-29-2016-diverging-trends-engine-compression-ratio-and-gasoline-octane
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline
4qar
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environmental studies
emissions> EIA: Transportation emissions higher than electric sector emissions> IEA: World in danger of not reaching climate goals> FOTW: CAFE standards under review
cradle-to-grave analysis> US DRIVE: Many vehicle-fuel pathways exist in the near future> US DRIVE: Vehicle technology and advanced fuels are both necessary to reduce
emissions in the future> US DRIVE: Energy efficiency of vehicles will improve in the future> US DRIVE: Advanced technology vehicles will become more cost competitive in
future, can be used for carbon mitigation
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emissionsEIA via U Chicago: Transportation emissions have passed the electric sector for the first time in decades>
39Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11911798/emissions-electricity-versus-transportation
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emissions IEA: Electrified vehicles only technology sector on track to meet 2°C climate change scenarios>
40Source: http://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-there-are-now-more-than-one-million-electric-cars-on-the-worlds-roads?mc_cid=8ac837ffe5&mc_eid=6a2d24429f
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emissionsIEA: EV sales need to maintain high growth to reach UN climate goals>
41Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11867894/electric-cars-global-sales
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CAFE standardsFOTW/EPA: CAFE standards are currently under mid-term evaluation for 2022 to 2025>
42Sources: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-941-september-5-2016-mid-term-evaluation-corporate-average-fuel-economy-standards and https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/mte.htm#tar
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CAFE standardsEPA: Fuel economy and vehicles emissions have improved since 2005>
43Source: https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/mte.htm#tar
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cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Vehicles and fuel improvements both needed to reduce LDV GHG emissions>
44Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report
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cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: ICE vehicle emissions driven most by tailpipe emissions and fuel refining/delivery>
45Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report
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cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Current tech vehicles range from 1.1–2.3 kWh/mile; can be as low as 0.5 kWh/mile by 2025>
46Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report
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cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Over vehicle lifetime advanced technology vehicles more cost-competitive in future>
47Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report
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cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Modeled costs of avoided GHG emissions generally in range of approximately $50–$400/tonne>
48Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline5 qar
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consumer & opinion surveys
consumer sentiments> FOTW/NREL: Public opinion on importance of fuel economy varies with
gasoline price> Consumer Reports: People would like fuel economy to improve> IHS: Large differences in acceptance of CAVs by age group
travel behavior> UC Berkeley: Car-sharing may be replacing transit and ride-hailing> UC Berkeley: Availability of shared cars can supplant ownership> UC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce VMT and GHGs
5
50
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consumer sentimentsFOTW: Public opinion of most important vehicle attribute has varied over the years>
51Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-942-september-12-2016-fifteen-percent-survey-respondents-consider-fuel-economy
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consumer sentimentsFOTW: Fuel economy being chosen as most important vehicle attribute is related to price of gasoline>
52Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-943-september-19-2016-fuel-economy-being-chosen-most-important-vehicle-attribute
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consumer sentimentsCR: Most people think fuel efficiency standards will not hurt vehicle sales>
53Source: http://consumersunion.org/2016/06/2016-fe-consumer-survey/
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consumer sentimentsCR / NRDC: Consumers feel automakers and the government should work toward better fuel economy>
54Sources: http://consumersunion.org/news/2016-fuel-economy-survey/ (May 11–18, 2016 survey – 1052 adults) and https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/attitudesairpollutionfuelefficiency.pdf (July 21–24, 2016 survey – 1012 adults)
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consumer sentimentsBCG/WEF: Many consumers worldwide willing to consider self-driving vehicles>
55Source: https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/automotive-public-sector-self-driving-vehicles-robo-taxis-urban-mobility-revolution/
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travel behaviorUC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce car ownership and total VMT/GHG emissions>
56Source: http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Impactsofcar2go_FiveCities_2016.pdf
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travel behaviorUC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce transit ridership and ride-hailing, possibly increase physical activity>
57Source: http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Impactsofcar2go_FiveCities_2016.pdf
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topics
energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies
outline6 qar
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policy & business studies
policy> IEA: Many EV policies exist globally> Mineta: People becoming more accepting of gas tax increases
HDV regulations> FOTW/DOT: Trucking regulations vary by state> DOT: Decreased speed and load improve fuel economy
vehicle ownership> DePaul: Car-sharing often subject to high taxes> NBER: Uber surge rates vary by time of day, reduce ridership> CAR/Certify: Ride-hailing now leading business expense for local travel
6
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worldwide policiesIEA: Many policies exist globally to support EV uptake>
60Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11867894/electric-cars-global-sales
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gasoline taxesMineta: People generally becoming more willing to have gas tax increases
>
61Source: http://transweb.sjsu.edu/PDFs/research/1528-road-and-transit-taxes-public-opinion-survey-2016.pdf
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heavy trucksFOTW: Longer combination trucks only permitted on some routes>
62Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-932-july-4-2016-longer-combination-trucks-are-only-permitted-some-routes
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heavy trucksFOTW: Truck speed limits vary from state-to-state>
63Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-929-june-13-2016-heavy-truck-speed-limits-are-inconsistent
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heavy trucksDOT: Fuel economy for heavy trucks lower at high speeds; DOT considering national HDV speed limits>
64Source: https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=FMCSA-2014-0083
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vehicle ownershipDePaul: Transaction-based taxes for short-term rentals lead to high effective tax rates on carsharing>
65Source: http://las.depaul.edu/centers-and-institutes/chaddick-institute-for-metropolitan-development/research-and-publications/Pages/default.aspx
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vehicle ownershipNBER: Uber ‘surge’ pricing varies throughout the week; people vary their purchase behavior accordingly>
66Source: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22627
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vehicle ownershipCAR / Certify: Ridehailing now leading business expense for ground transportation in the U.S.>
67Source: http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=138
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energy
automotive
tech/enviro
opinion/policy
summaryqar
>
16.33 Q 2 0 1 6
68
Gasoline prices are still low; U.S. exports on rise; Crude oil
now allowed to be exported outside of U.S./Canada
U.S. EV monthly sales at all-time highs; ‘trucks’ currently
more popular than ‘cars’ in United States
Advanced technology is being deployed faster than
expected; battery ranges are increasing; transportation now
leading sector for CO2 emissions in United States
Fuel economy importance correlated with gasoline prices;
people becoming more willing to have gas tax increases;
ride-hailers have strong price sensitivity
summary observations