Analysis of the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision

T.S. Kelso

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Overview

• Introduction• Anatomy of a Collision• Tracking a Collision• Impact on the Space Environment• Conclusions

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Introduction

• What: Collision of Iridium 33 & Cosmos 2251• When: 2009 Feb 10 @ 1656 UTC• Where: 72.505 N, 97.873 E, 788.6 km altitude

– Northern Siberia

• Results (as of 2009 Aug 5):– 386 pieces of Iridium 33 debris (16 decayed)– 927 pieces of Cosmos 2251 debris (30 decayed)

Anatomy of a Collision

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Relative Velocities

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Kevin Fetter Video: Iridium 33 & 28

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Gabbard Plot: Iridium 33

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Gabbard Plot: Cosmos 2251

Tracking a Collision

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SOCRATES Min Range

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SOCRATES Rank (All)

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SOCRATES Rank (Top 200)

Impact on the Space Environment

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Debris Characteristics

Satellite Number

ofPieces

Total Volume(m3)

Dry Mass(kg)

Inclination(deg)

Iridium 33 386 3.388 556 86

Cosmos 2251 927 7.841 900 74

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Lifetime Analysis: Iridium 33

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Lifetime Analysis: Cosmos 2251

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Lifetime Analysis: Iridium 33

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Lifetime Analysis: Cosmos 2251

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Conclusions

• Collision has significant long-term adverse effects• International community must continue to work to

mitigate debris generation• Can mitigate risk by collaboratively sharing SSA

– SOCRATES-GEO: 11 operators, 150 satellites– SOCRATES-LEO: 6 operators, 106 satellites– Need best available SSA from SSN

• Need full examination of this event to help chart the way ahead

Questions?