“ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION RATE, INTEREST...
Transcript of “ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION RATE, INTEREST...
“ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION RATE, INTEREST
RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE ON STOCK RETURN OF CONSUMER
GOODS AND PROPERTY AND REAL ESTATE SECTOR IN
INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE (IDX) 2006-2010”
Submitted by:
Ariningtyas Widyasnia Agustina
Student ID:107081101584
INTERNATIONAL UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAM
MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
UIN SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA
2011
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
My greatest gratitude to Allah SWT, the Grandest and Almighty, the Most
Gracious and the Most Merciful, for giving me the chance and ability to complete this
thesis,and for all the miracles He has granted to my life. May the talent You have
bestowed upon me will not got to waste. My greatest ggratitude to Prophet
Muhammad SAW for the teachings and love he has spread to all the creatures in this
whole universe. May we all always under his guidance.
First and foremost, I would like to thank to my thesis supervisors; Prof. Dr.
Ahmad Rodhoni, MM and Mr. Tirmidzi Taridi,MBA for their help, time, contribution
and effort in providing guidance and constructive suggestion to perform this study,
and for the understanding and support they had given.
I would also like to thank to the head of International Program, Faculty of
Economics and Business, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Mr. Arief Mufraini, Lc.
M.Si, and his deputies Mr. Ahmad Dumiyati. Also, thanks to Kak Sugih, for his
patients in accomodating all of my administrative needs. Thank you.
This thesis will never be completed without the continous support and prays
from my friends, collagues, and people around me. Thank you for the people in my
current internship place, Bank Indonesia, the place where this thesis born. I would
also like to thank to my bestfriends in International Program Batch 4; Sukria, Andrea
Ardilla, Wike Vidya, Pramayassya, Fitra, Weldan, Muhammad Kharisma and all,
whose name can’t be mentioned one by one. Individually, thank you to Aprima Arta
for his continous support and understanding during my hardest time in making this
thesis.
Last, but not least, I dedicated this thesis to the greatest gift God has given to
my life, my family. My father, H. Sumarno, for his support and increadible patient,
you are the soul of our life. My mother, Hj. Sri Irawati, for her unlimited guidance
that always keeping me on the right track. My brother, Rifki Hidayat Rahkumulyo,
and my sister, Arindani Tri Ramadhani, for made my life so blessed and colorful
everyday. Thank you.
Ariningtyas W. Agustina
Jakarta, March 20 2011
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ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga, inflasi, dan
nilai tukar terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham pada sektor properti dan real estate
serta sektor industry barang konsumsi periode 2006-2010. Penelitian ini
menggunakan model regresi linear berganda. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, secara
parsial suku bunga berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap tingkat pengembalian
saham property dan real estate dan tingkat pengembalian saham barang konsumsi
.Inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham property dan real
estate serta saham barang konsumsi. Nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan negatif
terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham property dan real estate serta saham barang
konsumsi. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga, inflasi, dan nilai
tukar berpengaruh lebih besar terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham property dan real
estate daripada saham barang konsumsi.
Kata Kunci: tingkat pengembalian saham, suku bunga, inflasi, nilai tukar.
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ABSTRACT
This research shows the effect of inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange
rate on stock return of property and real estate and consumer goods sector in period
2006-2010. A multiple regression model is applied to test the significance of
influence between the independent variable and the dependent variable. Based on the
result, partially interest rate has a negative effect to stock return of property and real
estate sector and consumer goods sector. Inflation has no effect to stock return of
property and real estate and consumer goods sector, while exchange rate has negative
effect to stock return of property and real estate sector. The result shows that the
inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate have a bigger effect on stock return of
property and real estate sector than consumer goods sector.
Keywords: stock return, interest rate, inflation, exchange rate.
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LIST OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION __________________________________________ 1
A. Background ________________________________________________________ 1
B. Problem Formulation ________________________________________________ 6
C. Research Objectives _________________________________________________ 8
D. Usefullness of the Research ___________________________________________ 8
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ____________________________________ 13
A. Fundamental of Capital Market _______________________________________ 13
1. History of Indonesian Capital Market _________________________________ 13
2. Capital Market Definition __________________________________________ 14
3. Capital Market Instrument __________________________________________ 15
B. Investment ________________________________________________________ 16
C. Stock Rate of Return ________________________________________________ 19
D. Risks ____________________________________________________________ 21
E. Inflation __________________________________________________________ 23
1. Relationship between inflation rate and stock return ______________________ 27
F. Interest Rate _______________________________________________________ 26
2.6.1 Relationship between interest rate and stock return ____________________ 27
2.6.2 SBI (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia) Rate _______________________________ 28
G. Exchange Rate ____________________________________________________ 30
H. Previous Researches ________________________________________________ 31
I. Research Framework and Hypotheses __________________________________ 37
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CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ______________________________ 40
A. Data Collection ____________________________________________________ 40
1. Unit of Analysis and Research Sampling _______________________________ 40
2. Types of Data ____________________________________________________ 41
B. Research Models ___________________________________________________ 41
3.3 Operational Variable _______________________________________________ 42
3.3.1 Stock’s Rate of Return __________________________________________ 42
3.3.2 Inflation Rate __________________________________________________ 43
3.3.2 Exchange Rate _________________________________________________ 44
3.3.2 Interest Rate ___________________________________________________ 45
3.4 Data Analysis Technique ____________________________________________ 45
3.4.1 Normality Test _________________________________________________ 46
3.4.1.1 Jarque-Bera Test of Normality _________________________________ 47
3.4.2 Classical Assumption Test _______________________________________ 48
3.4.2.1 Heteroscedastic Test _________________________________________ 50
3.4.2.2 Autocorrelation Test _________________________________________ 53
3.4.2.3 Multi-Collinearity Test _______________________________________ 54
3.4.3 Hypothesis Test ________________________________________________ 55
3.4.3.1 T Test ____________________________________________________ 55
3.4.3.2 F Test ____________________________________________________ 55
3.4.3.3 R Square (R2) Test __________________________________________ 56
3.4.4.4 Adjusted R Squared Test _____________________________________ 56
3.5 Research Design __________________________________________________ 57
CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS _____________________ 58
4.1 Brief Introduction _________________________________________________ 58
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4.2 Descriptive Statistic ________________________________________________ 59
4.3 Normality Test ____________________________________________________ 60
4.4 Classical Assumption Test ___________________________________________ 62
4.4.1 Heteroscedasticity Test __________________________________________ 62
4.4.2 Auto-Correlation Test ___________________________________________ 64
4.4.3 Multi-Collinearity Test __________________________________________ 65
4.5 Multiple Linear Regression Model ____________________________________ 66
4.6 Hypothesis Testing ________________________________________________ 67
4.6.1 T-Test _______________________________________________________ 67
4.6.2 f Test ________________________________________________________ 81
4.6.3 R-Squared (R2) ________________________________________________ 81
4.6.4 Adjusted R-Squared ____________________________________________ 82
4.7 The comparison between macroeconomic factors’ influences towards the
stock’s return on consumer goods and property and real estate sector _________ 83
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS ________________________ 84
5.1 Conclusion ______________________________________________________ 84
5.2 Implication of Study _______________________________________________ 85
5.2.1 For the Investor ________________________________________________ 85
5.2.1 For the Researcher ______________________________________________ 85
5.3 Limitation _______________________________________________________ 86
REFERENCES
APPENDIX I
APPENDIX I
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LIST OF FIGURES
2.1 Indonesia Interest Rate _____________________________________________ 29
2.2 Research Model ___________________________________________________ 39
3.1 Research Framework _______________________________________________ 57
4.1 Histogram Residual, Consumer Goods Sector ___________________________ 61
4.2 Histogram Residual, Property and Real Estate Sector _____________________ 61
4.3 Graph of Ex. Rate & Stock Return Movement 1 __________________________ 69
4.4 Graph of Inflation Rate & Stock Return Movement 1 _____________________ 71
4.5 Graph of SBI Rate & Stock Return Movement 1 _________________________ 73
4.6 Graph of Exchange Rate & Stock Return Movement 2 ____________________ 76
4.7 Graph of Inflation Rate & Stock Return Movement 2 _____________________ 78
4.8 Graph of SBI Rate & Stock Return Movement 2 _________________________ 80
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LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Indonesia Interest Rate _____________________________________________ 29
2.2 Research Model ___________________________________________________ 39
1.3 Research Objectives ________________________________________________ 8
1.4 Research Benefits __________________________________________________ 8
1.4 Research Benefits __________________________________________________ 8
4. Descriptive Statistics ________________________________________________ 59
4.2 Heteroscedasticity Test for Property and Real Estate Sector ________________ 63
4.3 Auto-Correlation Test for Consumer Goods Sector _______________________ 63
4.4 Auto-Correlation Test for Property and Real Estate Sector _________________ 64
4.5 Multi-Collinearity Test _____________________________________________ 65
4.6 Multi-Collinearity Test _____________________________________________ 65
4.7 Multi-Collinearity Test _____________________________________________ 67
4.8 Output Multiple Linear Regression Property and Real Estate Sector _________ 74
4.9 Comparison of Coefficient Regression _________________________________ 83
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LIST OF FORMULAS
2.1 Simple Returns ___________________________________________________ 19
2.2 Continously Compounded Return _____________________________________ 20
2.3 Consumer Price Index ______________________________________________ 24
2.4 Wholeseller Price Index _____________________________________________ 24
2.5 Inflation Rate _____________________________________________________ 25
2.6 Relationship between nominal and interest rate __________________________ 27
2.7 Capital Price Index Model ___________________________________________ 35
2.8 Multi Index Model _________________________________________________ 36
3.1 Model 1 _________________________________________________________ 41
3.2 Model 2 _________________________________________________________ 41
3.3 Continously Compounded Method ____________________________________ 42
3.4 Inflation Rate _____________________________________________________ 43
3.5 Change in Inflation Rate ____________________________________________ 43
3.6 Change in Exchange Rate ___________________________________________ 44
3.7 Change in Interest Rate _____________________________________________ 45
3.8 Jarque-Bera Test of Normality _______________________________________ 47
3.9 Zero Mean Value of Disturbance _____________________________________ 48
3.10 Homoscedasticity or equal variance of ui ______________________________ 49
3.11 No autocorrelation between the disturbances ___________________________ 49
x
3.12 Zero covariance between ui and Xi ____________________________________ 49
3.13 Regression Model ________________________________________________ 51
3.14 Auxiliary Regression Model ________________________________________ 51
3.15 Chi Square Distribution ____________________________________________ 52
3.16 R-Squared Test __________________________________________________ 56
“In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful....
All praise be to God alone, the Lord of all the world, the All-Merciful, the Ever Mercy-giving,
and the Master of the Day of Judgement.
You alone we worship, and You alone we ask for help.
Guide us on the right path,
The path of whom You have blessed, not of those who incur You anger, nor of those who go
astray.......”
(QS Al-Fathihah : 1-7)
Consumer Goods Return
Date
Consumer
Goods Index
Price
Consumer
Goods Return
12/30/2005 280.928
1/31/2006 288.583 0.026884331
2/28/2006 292.458 0.013338327
3/31/2006 293.905 0.004935519
4/28/2006 328.354 0.110835709
5/31/2006 294.929 -0.107357645
6/30/2006 299.316 0.014765222
7/31/2006 313.201 0.045345285
8/31/2006 331.074 0.055496758
9/29/2006 343.543 0.03697037
10/31/2006 349.721 0.017823408
11/24/2006 347.347 -0.006811413
12/29/2006 392.458 0.122105245
1/31/2007 390.251 -0.005639403
2/28/2007 385.22 -0.012975522
3/30/2007 385.827 0.001574483
4/30/2007 391.795 0.015349661
5/31/2007 411.99 0.050260333
6/29/2007 324.964 -0.23728467
7/31/2007 453.843 0.334036916
8/31/2007 415.462 -0.088360169
9/28/2007 421.425 0.014250672
10/31/2007 429.804 0.019687465
11/30/2007 426.853 -0.006889599
12/28/2007 436.039 0.021291997
1/31/2008 438.132 0.004788546
2/29/2008 430.084 -0.018539696
3/31/2008 405.011 -0.060066311
4/30/2008 394.385 -0.026586638
5/30/2008 414.54 0.049841882
6/30/2008 398.285 -0.040001642
7/31/2008 390.81 -0.018946321
8/29/2008 396.007 0.013210379
9/29/2008 381.36 -0.037688077
10/31/2008 321.919 -0.16944385
11/28/2008 320.9 -0.003170413
12/30/2008 326.843 0.018350385
1/30/2009 337.847 0.033113197
2/27/2009 346.155 0.024293521
3/31/2009 351.269 0.01466566
4/30/2009 381.322 0.082091851
5/29/2009 433.732 0.128782669
6/30/2009 495.732 0.133608626
7/31/2009 591.202 0.176122294
8/31/2009 559.178 -0.055689904
9/30/2009 597.628 0.066500639
10/30/2009 575.396 -0.037909987
11/30/2009 625.728 0.083857272
12/30/2009 671.305 0.070307807
1/29/2010 699.783 0.041546708
2/26/2010 717.932 0.02560457
3/31/2010 738.141 0.027760006
4/30/2010 821.588 0.10710419
5/31/2010 889.807 0.079765532
6/30/2010 959.04 0.074928199
7/30/2010 1,001.30 0.043122649
8/31/2010 1,005.91 0.004595432
9/30/2010 1,176.56 0.15670104
10/29/2010 1,179.98 0.00290171
11/30/2010 1,070.01 -0.097826604
12/30/2010 1,094.65 0.022765686
Property and Real Estate Return
Date
Property and
Real Estate
Index Price
Property and
Real Estate
Return
12/29/2005 64.12
1/31/2006 70.484 0.094629406
2/28/2006 71.33 0.011931263
3/31/2006 79.331 0.106311977
4/28/2006 88.956 0.114512893
5/31/2006 81.352 -0.089356447
6/30/2006 77.433 -0.049372372
7/31/2006 77.942 0.006551914
8/31/2006 78.985 0.013293001
9/29/2006 83.775 0.058876673
10/31/2006 90.316 0.075179998
10/24/2006 90.467 0.001670511
12/29/2006 122.918 0.306532323
1/31/2007 123.101 0.00148769
2/28/2007 136.185 0.101009099
3/30/2007 143.243 0.050528233
4/30/2007 168.687 0.163502438
5/31/2007 201.037 0.175444044
6/29/2007 211.718 0.05176623
7/31/2007 247.47 0.156034162
8/31/2007 225.648 -0.0923131
9/28/2007 242.834 0.073401819
10/31/2007 247.309 0.018260485
11/30/2007 232.089 -0.063517648
12/28/2007 251.816 0.081577743
1/31/2008 229.563 -0.09252116
2/29/2008 229.517 -0.000200401
3/31/2008 195.603 -0.159890006
4/30/2008 177.721 -0.09587219
5/30/2008 184.272 0.036198022
6/30/2008 168.528 -0.089311019
7/31/2008 174.699 0.035962585
8/29/2008 164.414 -0.060676856
9/29/2008 142.421 -0.143600177
10/31/2008 101.346 -0.340247055
11/28/2008 105.632 0.041420951
12/30/2008 103.489 -0.020496029
1/30/2009 96.026 -0.074846339
2/27/2009 96.558 0.005524876
3/31/2009 99.742 0.032442988
4/30/2009 112.318 0.118747282
5/29/2009 130.986 0.153756313
6/30/2009 144.787 0.10017325
7/31/2009 159.975 0.099753856
8/31/2009 157.959 -0.012682047
9/30/2009 162.285 0.027018543
10/30/2009 153.985 -0.052498854
11/30/2009 143.635 -0.069579836
12/30/2009 146.8 0.021795757
1/29/2010 153.491 0.044570817
2/26/2010 150.231 -0.021467824
3/31/2010 166.378 0.102088199
4/30/2010 182.123 0.090419975
5/31/2010 154.504 -0.164462297
6/30/2010 163.384 0.055883272
7/30/2010 168.259 0.029401201
8/31/2010 170.904 0.015597536
9/30/2010 192.768 0.120385398
10/29/2010 202.413 0.048822771
11/30/2010 203.223 0.003993734
12/30/2010 203.097 -0.000620201
Data of Exchange Rate
Year Month Sell Buy Mid Change
2005 December 9879 9781 9830
2006 January 9442 9348 9395 -0.0443
February 9276 9184 9230 -0.0176
March 9120 9030 9075 -0.0168
April 8819 8731 8775 -0.0331
May 9266 9174 9220 0.05071
June 9347 9253 9300 0.00868
July 9115 9025 9070 -0.0247
August 9146 9054 9100 0.00331
September 9281 9189 9235 0.01484
October 9156 9064 9110 -0.0135
November 9211 9119 9165 0.00604
December 9065 8975 9020 -0.0158
2007 January 9135 9045 9090 0.00776
February 9206 9114 9160 0.0077
March 9164 9072 9118 -0.0046
April 9128 9038 9083 -0.0038
May 8872 8784 8828 -0.0281
June 9099 9009 9054 0.0256
July 9232 9140 9186 0.01458
August 9457 9363 9410 0.02438
September 9183 9091 9137 -0.029
October 9149 9057 9103 -0.0037
November 9423 9329 9376 0.02999
December 9466 9372 9419 0.00459
2008 January 9337 9245 9291 -0.0136
February 9096 9006 9051 -0.0258
March 9263 9171 9217 0.01834
April 9280 9188 9234 0.00184
May 9365 9271 9318 0.0091
June 9271 9179 9225 -0.01
July 9164 9072 9118 -0.0116
August 9199 9107 9153 0.00384
September 9425 9331 9378 0.02458
October 11050 10940 10995 0.17242
November 12212 12090 12151 0.10514
December 11005 10895 10950 -0.0988
2009 January 11412 11298 11355 0.03699
February 12040 11920 11980 0.05504
March 11633 11517 11575 -0.0338
April 10767 10659 10713 -0.0745
May 10392 10288 10340 -0.0348
June 10276 10174 10225 -0.0111
July 9970 9870 9920 -0.0298
August 10110 10010 10060 0.01411
September 9729 9633 9681 -0.0377
October 9593 9497 9545 -0.014
November 9527 9433 9480 -0.0068
December 9447 9353 9400 -0.0084
2010 January 9412 9318 9365 -0.0037
February 9382 9288 9335 -0.0032
March 9161 9069 9115 -0.0236
April 9057 8967 9012 -0.0113
May 9226 9134 9180 0.01864
June 9128 9038 9083 -0.0106
July 8997 8907 8952 -0.0144
August 9086 8996 9041 0.00994
September 8969 8879 8924 -0.0129
October 8973 8883 8928 0.00045
November 9058 8968 9013 0.00952
December 9036 8946 8991 -0.0024
Data of SBI Rate
Year Month
SBI
Rate Change
2005 December 0.1275
2006 January 0.1275 0
February 0.1274 -0.0008
March 0.1273 -0.0008
April 0.1274 0.00079
May 0.125 -0.0188
June 0.125 0
July 0.1225 -0.02
August 0.1175 -0.0408
September 0.1125 -0.0426
October 0.1075 -0.0444
November 0.1025 -0.0465
December 0.0975 -0.0488
2007 January 0.095 -0.0256
February 0.0925 -0.0263
March 0.09 -0.027
April 0.09 0
May 0.0875 -0.0278
June 0.085 -0.0286
July 0.0825 -0.0294
August 0.0825 0
September 0.0825 0
October 0.0825 0
November 0.0825 0
December 0.08 -0.0303
2008 January 0.08 0
February 0.0793 -0.0088
March 0.0796 0.00378
April 0.0799 0.00377
May 0.0831 0.04005
June 0.0873 0.05054
July 0.0923 0.05727
August 0.0928 0.00542
September 0.0971 0.04634
October 0.1098 0.13079
November 0.1124 0.02368
December 0.1083 -0.0365
2009 January 0.0977 -0.0979
February 0.0874 -0.1054
March 0.0821 -0.0606
April 0.0764 -0.0694
May 0.0725 -0.051
June 0.0695 -0.0414
July 0.0671 -0.0345
August 0.0658 -0.0194
September 0.0648 -0.0152
October 0.0649 0.00154
November 0.0647 -0.0031
December 0.0646 -0.0015
2010 January 0.0645 -0.0015
February 0.0641 -0.0062
March 0.0632 -0.014
April 0.0625 -0.0111
May 0.0637 0.0192
June 0.0629 -0.0126
July 0.067 0.06518
August 0.067 0
September 0.0645 -0.0373
October 0.0645 0
November 0.065 0.00775
December 0.063 -0.0308
Data of Inflation Rate
Year Month Inflation Change in Inflation
2005 December -0.04
2006 January 1.36 -35
February 0.58 -0.573529412
March 0.03 -0.948275862
April 0.05 0.666666667
May 0.37 6.4
June 0.45 0.216216216
July 0.45 0
August 0.33 -0.266666667
September 0.38 0.151515152
October 0.86 1.263157895
November 0.34 -0.604651163
December 1.21 2.558823529
2007 January 1.04 -0.140495868
February 0.62 -0.403846154
March 0.24 -0.612903226
April -0.16 -1.666666667
May 0.10 -1.625
June 0.23 1.3
July 0.72 2.130434783
August 0.75 0.041666667
September 0.80 0.066666667
October 0.79 -0.0125
November 0.18 -0.772151899
December 1.10 5.111111111
2008 January 1.77 0.609090909
February 0.65 -0.632768362
March 0.95 0.461538462
April 0.57 -0.4
May 1.41 1.473684211
June 2.46 0.744680851
July 1.37 -0.443089431
August 0.51 -0.627737226
September 0.97 0.901960784
October 0.45 -0.536082474
November 0.12 -0.733333333
December -0.04 -1.333333333
2009 January -0.07 0.75
February 0.21 -4
March 0.22 0.047619048
April -0.31 -2.409090909
May 0.04 -1.129032258
June 0.11 1.75
July 0.45 3.090909091
August 0.56 0.244444444
September 1.05 0.875
October 0.19 -0.819047619
November -0.03 -1.157894737
December 0.33 -12
2010 January 0.84 1.545454545
February 0.30 -0.642857143
March -0.14 -1.466666667
April 0.15 -2.071428571
May 0.29 0.933333333
June 0.97 2.344827586
July 1.57 0.618556701
August 0.76 -0.515923567
September 0.44 -0.421052632
October 0.06 -0.863636364
November 0.60 9
December 0.92 0.533333333
EVIEWS 5 OUTPUT (Consumer Goods Sector)
MULTIPLE REGRESSION
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 16:04
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.016385 0.008014 2.044428 0.0456
X1 -0.693450 0.226342 -3.063726 0.0034
X2 3.36E-05 0.001505 0.022330 0.9823
X3 -0.483347 0.223922 -2.158550 0.0352
R-squared 0.286679 Mean dependent var 0.022268
Adjusted R-squared 0.248466 S.D. dependent var 0.067858
S.E. of regression 0.058827 Akaike info criterion -2.764084
Sum squared resid 0.193796 Schwarz criterion -2.624461
Log likelihood 86.92251 F-statistic 7.502025
Durbin-Watson stat 2.016865 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000263
AUTO CORRELATION TEST
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.150862 Probability 0.860328
Obs*R-squared 0.333385 Probability 0.846460
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 1.985143 Probability 0.084204
Obs*R-squared 11.00974 Probability 0.088076
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Y C X1 X2 X3
Mean 0.022268 1.000000 -0.000831 -0.483316 -0.011012
Median 0.003819 1.000000 -0.003781 -0.076498 -0.007476
Maximum 0.193360 1.000000 0.172425 9.000000 0.130793
Minimum -0.169444 1.000000 -0.098840 -35.00000 -0.105425
Std. Dev. 0.067858 0.000000 0.037145 5.192304 0.036939
Skewness 0.352901 NA 1.717417 -5.028711 0.705108
Kurtosis 3.747713 NA 10.70772 34.36123 6.116995
Jarque-Bera 2.643079 NA 178.0175 2711.697 29.26092
Probability 0.266724 NA 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
Sum 1.336056 60.00000 -0.049875 -28.99897 -0.660716
Sum Sq.
Dev. 0.271681 0.000000 0.081406 1590.641 0.080504
Observations 60 60 60 60 60
MULTI-COLLINEARITY TEST
Dependent Variable: X1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 16:09
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.003920 0.004661 0.841008 0.4039
X2 0.001321 0.000863 1.530626 0.1314
X3 0.373475 0.121341 3.077900 0.0032
R-squared 0.170209 Mean dependent var -0.000831
Adjusted R-squared 0.141094 S.D. dependent var 0.037145
S.E. of regression 0.034425 Akaike info criterion -3.851354
Sum squared resid 0.067550 Schwarz criterion -3.746637
Log likelihood 118.5406 F-statistic 5.846004
Durbin-Watson stat 1.836991 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004905
Dependent Variable: X2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 16:09
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.601305 0.700757 -0.858079 0.3944
X1 29.87945 19.52107 1.530626 0.1314
X3 -12.97014 19.63019 -0.660724 0.5115
R-squared 0.039652 Mean dependent var -0.483316
Adjusted R-squared 0.005956 S.D. dependent var 5.192304
S.E. of regression 5.176819 Akaike info criterion 6.174965
Sum squared resid 1527.569 Schwarz criterion 6.279683
Log likelihood -182.2490 F-statistic 1.176746
Durbin-Watson stat 1.268507 Prob(F-statistic) 0.315656
Dependent Variable: X3
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 16:09
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.010978 0.004512 -2.432994 0.0181
X1 0.381592 0.123978 3.077900 0.0032
X2 -0.000586 0.000887 -0.660724 0.5115
R-squared 0.142669 Mean dependent var -0.011012
Adjusted R-squared 0.112587 S.D. dependent var 0.036939
S.E. of regression 0.034797 Akaike info criterion -3.829852
Sum squared resid 0.069018 Schwarz criterion -3.725135
Log likelihood 117.8956 F-statistic 4.742714
Durbin-Watson stat 0.862207 Prob(F-statistic) 0.012437
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-0.10 -0.05 -0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
Series: Residuals
Sample 2006M01 2010M12
Observations 60
Mean -4.97e-18
Median -0.005805
Maximum 0.145997
Minimum -0.105790
Std. Dev. 0.057312
Skewness 0.487487
Kurtosis 2.684504
Jarque-Bera 2.625284
Probability 0.269108
EVIEWS 5 OUTPUT (Property and Real Estate Sector)
MULTIPLE REGRESSION
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 10:59
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.008209 0.011062 0.742136 0.4611
X1 -1.065215 0.312405 -3.409723 0.0012
X2 -0.000461 0.002077 -0.221818 0.8253
X3 -0.898840 0.309064 -2.908261 0.0052
R-squared 0.369993 Mean dependent var 0.019215
Adjusted R-squared 0.336243 S.D. dependent var 0.099661
S.E. of regression 0.081195 Akaike info criterion -2.119578
Sum squared resid 0.369190 Schwarz criterion -1.979955
Log likelihood 67.58735 F-statistic 10.96265
Durbin-Watson stat 1.908693 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000009
AUTO CORRELATION TEST
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.587759 Probability 0.559086
Obs*R-squared 1.278303 Probability 0.527740
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 10:57
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.000104 0.011158 0.009328 0.9926
X1 0.009653 0.322981 0.029888 0.9763
X2 -0.000342 0.002124 -0.161050 0.8727
X3 0.030717 0.315445 0.097378 0.9228
RESID(-1) 0.039112 0.138929 0.281525 0.7794
RESID(-2) 0.141898 0.137328 1.033283 0.3061
R-squared 0.021305 Mean dependent var 6.94E-19
Adjusted R-squared -0.069315 S.D. dependent var 0.079104
S.E. of regression 0.081800 Akaike info criterion -2.074447
Sum squared resid 0.361324 Schwarz criterion -1.865012
Log likelihood 68.23341 F-statistic 0.235103
Durbin-Watson stat 2.037779 Prob(F-statistic) 0.945374
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.538939 Probability 0.776195
Obs*R-squared 3.450216 Probability 0.750581
MULTI-COLLINEARITY TEST
Dependent Variable: X1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 11:01
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.003920 0.004661 0.841008 0.4039
X2 0.001321 0.000863 1.530626 0.1314
X3 0.373475 0.121341 3.077900 0.0032
R-squared 0.170209 Mean dependent var -0.000831
Adjusted R-squared 0.141094 S.D. dependent var 0.037145
S.E. of regression 0.034425 Akaike info criterion -3.851354
Sum squared resid 0.067550 Schwarz criterion -3.746637
Log likelihood 118.5406 F-statistic 5.846004
Durbin-Watson stat 1.836991 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004905
Dependent Variable: X2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 11:02
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.601305 0.700757 -0.858079 0.3944
X1 29.87945 19.52107 1.530626 0.1314
X3 -12.97014 19.63019 -0.660724 0.5115
R-squared 0.039652 Mean dependent var -0.483316
Adjusted R-squared 0.005956 S.D. dependent var 5.192304
S.E. of regression 5.176819 Akaike info criterion 6.174965
Sum squared resid 1527.569 Schwarz criterion 6.279683
Log likelihood -182.2490 F-statistic 1.176746
Durbin-Watson stat 1.268507 Prob(F-statistic) 0.315656
Dependent Variable: X3
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 11:02
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.010978 0.004512 -2.432994 0.0181
X1 0.381592 0.123978 3.077900 0.0032
X2 -0.000586 0.000887 -0.660724 0.5115
R-squared 0.142669 Mean dependent var -0.011012
Adjusted R-squared 0.112587 S.D. dependent var 0.036939
S.E. of regression 0.034797 Akaike info criterion -3.829852
Sum squared resid 0.069018 Schwarz criterion -3.725135
Log likelihood 117.8956 F-statistic 4.742714
Durbin-Watson stat 0.862207 Prob(F-statistic) 0.012437
Descriptive Statistics
Y X1 X2 X3
Mean 0.019215 -0.000831 -0.483316 -0.011012
Median 0.024407 -0.003781 -0.076498 -0.007476
Maximum 0.306532 0.172425 9.000000 0.130793
Minimum -0.340247 -0.098840 -35.00000 -0.105425
Std. Dev. 0.099661 0.037145 5.192304 0.036939
Skewness -0.521612 1.717417 -5.028711 0.705108
Kurtosis 5.198717 10.70772 34.36123 6.116995
Jarque-Bera 14.80669 178.0175 2711.697 29.26092
Probability 0.000609 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
Sum 1.152927 -0.049875 -28.99897 -0.660716
Sum Sq. Dev. 0.586010 0.081406 1590.641 0.080504
Observations 60 60 60 60
Normality Test
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.2
Series: Residuals
Sample 2006M01 2010M12
Observations 60
Mean 6.94e-19
Median 0.001880
Maximum 0.238803
Minimum -0.167392
Std. Dev. 0.079104
Skewness 0.363828
Kurtosis 3.382237
Jarque-Bera 1.688972
Probability 0.429778
1
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
A. Background
Investment is the commitment of money or capital to the purchase of
financial instruments or other assets so as to gain profitable returns in the form of
interest, income (dividends), or appreciation (capital gains) of the value of the
instrument (Sullivan,2003). It is related to saving or deferring consumption.
Investment is involved in many areas of the economy, such as business
management and finance no matter for households, firms, or governments.
Investment comes with the risk of the loss of the principal sum. The investment
that has not been thoroughly analyzed can be highly risky with respect to the
investment owner because the possibility of losing money is not within the
owner's control. The fundamental principle of investment‟s risk is the more risks
possible, the higher return we receive. The level of risk, especially in Indonesian
Capital Market is mainly affected by economics and political factors. Therefore,
to make an investment decision, investors need to be carefully analyzing the
investment‟s instrument they are most likely to choose. This analysis aims to
minimize the risk of the investment.
According to Bodi, Kane, and Marcus (2007, p.112) in their books “Investment”,
there are two types of risks that commonly faced by the investor when investing
2
their money; systematic and unsystematic risk. Interest rates, recession and wars
all represent sources of systematic risk because they affect the entire market and
cannot be avoided through diversification. While unsystematic risk is company or
industry specific risk that is inherent in each investment. Systematic risk can be
mitigated only by being hedged, while unsystematic risk can be reduced through
appropriate diversification.
Analyses of the financial markets are broadly divided between two schools of
thought; fundamental and technical analysis (Graham, et al: 1999). Fundamental
analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of a company, and hence the
share price, by researching and examining the corporate financial statements, the
business itself, industry outlook and so on. Conventional wisdom dictates that the
price of a stock that is trading for less than its intrinsic value should rise and the
price of a stock that is trading for higher than its intrinsic value should fall
(Chong, 2006). On the other hand, Technical analysis is a method of evaluating
future price of a stock based on statistical analysis of past behaviors of the stock.
Behaviors of stock include trading volume, moving averages, price trends and
other types of charts. Technical analysis assumes that the price chart frequently
anticipates news and other fundamental events before they become public
knowledge. It is used by market analysts to identify the beginning of an uptrend,
entry point, beginning of a downtrend and the exit point.
After the financial crisis hit Indonesia in 1998, the macroeconomic condition of
this country becomes unstable. The interest rate rose substantially and makes
3
investor prefers investing in the form of deposit rather than in stock market.
Inflation also rose and thus makes the exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US
dollar dropped. On the article publish by daily news agency Reuters1, this
condition is likely to be happened again in 2008. This crisis is the effect resulted
from subprime mortgage case in US in 2007. The immediate cause or trigger of
the crisis was the Fed policy to decrease the interest rate which peaked in
approximately 2005–2006 (Lahart, 2007). Already-rising default rates on
"subprime" and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) began to increase quickly
thereafter. As banks began to increasingly give out more loans to potential home
owners, the housing price also began to rise. In the optimistic terms the banks
would encourage the home owners to take on considerably high loans in the belief
they would be able to pay it back more quickly overlooking the interest rates.
Once the interest rates began to rise in mid 2007 the housing price started to drop
significantly in 2006 leading into 2007. In many states like California refinancing
became more difficult. As a result the number of foreclosed homes began to rise
as well.
The Global Financial Crisis brings a negative impact of other countries, and
Indonesia is one that is affected also. Based on the report publish by Bank
Indonesia, during this crisis, the exchange rates of Indonesian Rupiah to US dollar
1 Three top economists agree 2009 worst financial crisis since great depression;
risks increase if right steps are not taken. (February 29, 2009). Reuters.
Retrieved 2010-09-30, from Business Wire News database.
4
decline significantly to Rp 12,000/ US$. On October 9-10 2008, many stocks in
Jakarta Stock Exchange are being suspended because of market‟s overreaction. It
seems like the Financial Global Crisis will harm the economic conditions of a
country, as well as its stock market.
The unstable macroeconomic conditions could affect the stock price in a stock
market. According to Bodi, Kane, and Marcus (2007 P.226) in their books
“Investment” the macroeconomic factors that affect the stock price are; interest
rate, inflation, and exchange rate. The stock price that is influenced by the cyclical
factors such as stock on property and real estate industries will be affected more
than the stock price on the other industries that is not influenced by cyclical
factors, such as consumption goods industries.
The interest rate influences the choice of investment choosed by investor. The
raise of interest rate makes investor tend to invest their money in the form of
deposit, rather than in stock market which has higher risk. The higher rate of
interest will bring a negative significant effect to the property and real estate
sector because it depends on the mortgage. In contradictory, if the interest rates
fell, and the mortgage also fell, the willingness of investor to buy property is
raised. This happens in United States when the Fed decreases their interest rate
and triggers the people to buy houses with lower mortgage. This condition makes
the performance of property and real estate sector increase, because the amount of
houses sold are also increased. However, when the Fed increases back the interest
rate, it will leads to the failure of payment from the creditor, and this condition
5
makes the performance of the property and real estate sector declining.
Fundamentally, the decreasing performance of a company will lead to the
decreasing of its stock price in the stock market.
Inflation, as an unpredictable macroeconomic indicator also influences the
performance of the stock in the market. Inflation is the raise of overall goods and
services in an economy over period of time (Mankiw, 2007). The raise of overall
goods and services will create the declining demand of secondary and tertiary
product, such as property and real estate, because the people will try to fulfill their
basic needs first. This makes the stock price on property and real estate sector will
be more affected than the stock price on consumption goods, theoretically.
The exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar depreciated when the crisis
occurred. This condition caused a huge damage to major industries in Indonesia,
especially for those who finance their company by borrowing fund from foreign
country. They have to pay more for their debt and this will make the performance
of their company weaken and thus make their stock prices decrease. Exchange
rate also influences the foreign investor‟s decision to invest their money in
Indonesian stock market. Foreign investors are allowed to invest their money in
certain limitation. When the exchange rates change, foreign investor must rethink
their decision to invest carefully and this will influence the stock price as a whole.
As the condition described above, this research try to examine the macroeconomic
factors, especially interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate, that will influence the
stock performance, both for stock which influenced much by cyclical factors, and
6
stock which less influenced by cyclical factors. This research aims to help investor
to make the best decision regarding the choice of stocks when the economic
condition is unstable.
B. Problem Formulation
A country‟s capital market plays a significant role in determining the
growth of that particular country. There are many research conducted in various
countries, using various types of data to prove that theory, which later will be
explored on the next part of this research. But so far the result of this study is still
inconclusive. Every market is different and dynamic and that makes some
researches resulted in the opposite way of theory. The choice of method analysis
also influences the result of the research. Therefore, the writer desires to prove the
negative effect of macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate, inflation, and
exchange rate to the stock return in Indonesia‟s capital market.
This research chooses the property and real estate sector and consumer goods
sector as the object of research. The reason behind this choice is because both
sectors differ in terms of the level of cyclical factors‟ influence. Consumer goods
are become the sample of this research because this sector are less likely to be
influenced by cyclical factors so it can be a good comparator to the property and
real estate sector, which is considerably more influenced by cyclical factors.
Based on the two factors, we will see how macroeconomics variables affect the
performance of the stock on consumption goods sector and property and real
estate sectors.
7
Based on the consideration above, this research aims to answer these following
questions:
1. How the interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate are influences the
performance of a stock on consumption goods and property and real estate
sector in Indonesia stock exchange?
2. How much the influence of interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate
affected the performance of stock on consumption goods and property and
real estate sector in Indonesia stock exchange?
C. Research Objectives
The objectives of this research are:
1. To identify the influence of interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate to the
performance of stock on consumption goods sector and property and real
estate sector in Indonesia stock exchange.
2. To determine the extent to which interest rate, inflation and exchange rate
influence the performance of stock on consumption goods sector and
property and real estate sector in Indonesia stock exchange.
D. Usefullness of the Research
In general, this research is expected to provide the significant contribution to
investors especially the individual investors to have new insights regarding the
8
perfect time to invest in the capital market given a current macroeconomic
circumstances. This eventually will help investor in obtaining their investments‟ risks
manageable, which eventually will help in the improvement of the social economics
circumstances. Specifically, the benefits of research is diveded into three scope of
areas, which are:
1. For the Author
As for the author, this research is expected to enrich the author‟s
knowledge about investment in capital market, as well as macroeconomic
knowledges. This reserach is also expected to become a medium to
implement lessons learned during the author‟s study in the university.
2. For the Investor
As for the investor, this research attempts to help investor in increasing
their knowledge about macroeconomic condition before they choose to
invest in the capital market. By examining the condition, investors could
forecast their return in capital market. Thus, this is expected to help
investor minimize the risk of their investmrnt.
3. For academic purposes
This research aims to add the literature study for investor who wishes to
know the influence of macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate,
inflation, and exchange rate to the rate of return in consumption good
stocks and property and real estate stock. This study can be used as a
consideration before selecting the most appropriate stock for investor.
Also, This research aims to add understanding for other researcher who
wishes to do research in the same field of study.
9
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
A. Fundamental of Capital Market
1. History of Indonesian Capital Market
The capital market in Indonesia has actually existed long before the
Independence of Indonesia. The first stock exchange in Indonesia was established
on 1912 in Batavia during the Dutch colonial era. At that time, the exchange was
established for the interest of the Dutch East Indies (VOC).
During that era, the capital market grew gradually, and even became inactive for a
period of time due to various conditions, such as the World War I and II, power
transition from the Dutch government to Indonesian government, etc.
Indonesian government reactivated its capital market in 1977, and it grew rapidly
ever since, along with the support of incentives and regulations issued by the
government.
The milestone of Indonesian capital market occurred in 2007, where Surabaya
Stock Exchange merged with Jakarta Stock Exchange and thus change the name
to become Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This merger is expected to boost the
performance of Indonesian capital market in the future2.
2 www.bapepam.go.id
10
2. Capital Market Definition
The Capital Market is a market for several long-term investment
instruments which can be traded, whether in the form of debt or self-own capital
(equity) (Darmadji and Hendy, 2001). Capital market enables corporations to
issue the security in the form of certificate of indebtedness (bond) or the
certificate of ownership (stock). Through the existence of capital market, this
would be possible for the parties who has surplus of fund (lender) to move their
fund to another parties who are deficit in fund (borrower). The parties who have
the surplus of fund can invest their money to the parties who are deficit with the
expectation to get the return, while the issuer (in this case the corporate) can
utilize the fund for its interest to make its business growth without depending on
the operational activity of the corporate.
Capital market has many advantages which can be categorized as economic
advantage and financial advantage. On the economic side, capital market is
expected to boost economic activity because capital market is becoming a funding
alternative for the corporations so that the corporations can operate in the higher
scale which eventually can increase its revenue and prosperity of the society.
While in the financial side, capital market is expected to become the source of
financing (long term) for the corporations and enable investor to diversify its
investment.
3. Capital Market Instrument
Stock exchange instrument consist of promissory notes that can be traded
through the stock exchange. Capital market instruments which currently traded at
11
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are classified into three types; stocks, bonds, and
rights3.
a) Stock
The capital stock of a business entity represents the original capital paid
into or invested in the business by its founders. Stock typically takes the
form of shares of either common stock or preferred stock. As a unit of
ownership, common stock typically carries voting rights that can be
exercised in corporate decisions. They include the right to receive dividend
payments typically from earnings, if authorized by the board of directors
and the power to sell the stock (liquidity rights) and realize capital gains
on public trading markets or in private transactions. On the other hand,
preferred stock differs from common stock in that it typically does not
carry voting rights but is legally entitled to receive a certain level of
dividend payments before any dividends can be issued to other
shareholders.
b) Rights
Rights are the right given to the old shareholder to buy new additional
shares issued by a particular company.
3 www.idx.co.id
12
c) Bond
Bond is a debt security, in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a
debt and, depending on the terms of the bonds, is obliged to pay interest
(the coupon) and/or repay the principal at later date, termed maturity. A
bond is a formal contract to repay borrowed money with interest at fixed
intervals.
B. Investment
Investment is putting money into something with the hope of profit. More
specifically, investment is the commitment of money or capital to the purchase of
financial instruments or other assets so as to gain profitable returns in the form of
interest, income (dividends), or capital gain appreciation of the value of the
instrument (Sullivan, 2003). It is related to saving or deferring consumption.
Investment is involved in many areas of the economy, such as business
management and finance no matter for households, firms, or governments. An
investment involves the choice by an individual or an organization, such as a
pension fund, after some analysis or thought, to place or lend money in a vehicle,
instrument or asset, such as property, commodity, stock, bond, financial
derivatives (e.g. futures or options), or the foreign asset denominated in foreign
currency, that has certain level of risk and provides the possibility of generating
returns over a period of time (Graham et al., 1991).
Investor usually assesses their risk before making an investment decision. They
assess the expected profitability return they will earn from the investment. In the
practice, not all of the expected returns in the future match the prediction of the
13
investor. There are many factors that make investment‟s return somehow
unpredictable. Because of these factors, investor needs to make a comprehensive
analysis before they make an investment decision to minimize the risks. The
analysis could be a fundamental analysis or technical analysis.
Generally, there are two different styles and types of investors that exist in the
stock market; investors use the stock market to build their investment portfolio so
that they can see a long term profit that takes place over a long period of time, and
investor who just using the stock market to make money quickly for a short period
of time, which is called a "trader". The first type of investor has a short term
orientation while the second type has a long term orientation.
Investor in capital market must analyze the factors that could influence the change
of stock price. Stock prices definitely change over the course of time. Some can
increase rapidly and make investors a fortune, whereas others can lose a lot of
value quickly and bankrupt investors. Stock prices change because of the
economics of market forces, and the supply and demand for the stock (Coleman,
2006). This is all based on personal perception. If people think that a company
will do better in the future, this will raise the demand and price of the stock, and if
they think a company will do worse, this will lower the demand and price of the
stock.
The change of stock price is influenced by many factors. Some studies have
concluded that company fundamentals such as earning and valuation multiple are
major factors that affect stock prices. Other indicated that inflation, economic
conditions, investor behavior, the behavior of the market and liquidity, are the
14
most influencing factors of stock prices (Bodie, 2007). News or information also
affects the change in stock price. Positive news about a company can increase
buying interest in the market while a negative press release can ruin the prospect
of a stock. Nevertheless, investor could not only rely on the news when
attempting to predict stock price. It is the overall performance of the company
that matters more than news. It is always wise to take a wait and watch policy in a
volatile market or when there is mixed reaction about a particular stock.
In capital market, there is term named „market efficiency concept‟ which
mentions the degree to which stock prices reflect all available and relevant
information. In 1900, Louis Bachelier made an important contribution to the
formalism of classical economics with a theory that says trading strategies based
only on observed price changes cannot succeed. Markets are moved by news and
since, by definition, news cannot be predicted (or it would not be news), price
movement cannot be anticipated. Consequently, price data are not linked and price
series follow a geometric Brownian random walk, whereby market prices are log-
normal distributed, i.e. the differences of the logarithms of prices are Gaussian
distributed.
There are three categories of market efficiency concept (Elton, et al: 2007)
1. Weak Form Efficiency: In this form of market efficiency, no investor can
earn excess returns by developing trading rules based solely on historical
price or return information.
15
2. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency: In this form of market efficiency, no
investor can earn excess returns from using trading rules based on any
publicly available information.
3. Strong Form Efficiency: In this form of efficiency, no investor can earn
excess returns using any information whether publicly available or not.
As every casual follower of financial news knows, stock prices rise and fall in
response to earnings and revenues (Yee, 2001). Positive information regarding
expected Earnings per Share (EPS) will boost the stock price and vice versa.
C. Stock Rate of Return
Capital Market Theory explains the behavior of investor in making an
investment decision. Investor will consider two most important factors when
making an investment decision; risk and return. A stock‟s rate of return is gained
from the dividend paid annually or capital gain or margin from the purchase-sell
activity.
Chris Brooks (2002 p.154) in his book, Introductory of Econometrics for Finance
explain two methods in calculating return gained from capital gain margin; simple
return and continuously compounded returns. The formula of each method is as
follows:
Simple returns:
(2.1)
16
Continuously compounded return
(2.2)
Where,
Rt = Simple returns on t period
rt = Continuously compounded returns on t period
Pt = Stock Price on t period
Pt-1 = Stock Price on t-1 period
Investor will make an investment decision to buy a particular stock if a stock‟s
rate of return forecasted to be increased in the future. In this condition, investor
will gained more return than they‟re required rate of return. When a stock‟s return
is predicted to up, it will increase the demand from investor to that particular stock
and automatically increase the stock price. On the other hand, when a stock‟s
return is predicted to decrease, it will also decrease the demand from investor to
that particular stock and resulted in the decrease of stock price as well. Investor
will tend to sell the stocks which not meet their required rate of return. Here we
can see a linear correlation between a stock‟s rate of return and stock‟s price.
D. Risks
Despite considering a stock‟s return, investor who wishes to invest their
money on capital market must also define the risk of the stock. In one definition,
"risks" are simply future issues that can be avoided or mitigated, rather than
17
present problems that must be immediately addressed (Hubbard, 2009). While
others said that risk is the uncertainty about rate of return in the future (Bodie et
al: 2007). Risks that faced by investors are strongly related to the fluctuation of
stock price. According to Yan Yee Chong (2006, p. 75) in his books Investment
Risk Management, risks are classified into several types:
a. Business Risk
Business risk is the potential for loss of value through competition,
mismanagement, and financial insolvency. There are a number of
industries that are predisposed to higher levels of business risk (airlines,
railroads, steel, etc).
b. Credit and Country Risk
Credit risk is the risk that firm unable to deal with its obligations, and
therefore the asset will become unprofitable. Country risk refers to the risk
that a country will change the rules under which its financial system
operates in some way that affects that country‟s native financial instrument
and assets; country risk is also known as political risk.
c. Interest
The raise of interest rate will decrease the demand of stocks investment
because people will prefer to invest in the form of deposits. This resulted
in the decreasing of stock price.
d. Market Risk
Market risk is risk associated with daily fluctuations in stock price. Market
risk is also referred to as volatility; assets with high volatility (market risk)
18
are likely to fluctuate greatly in stock price, whereas assets with low
volatility are more immune to fast, large price changes. Volatility is
important in the stock world for a variety of reasons. The more volatile a
stock, the more potential for profit there may exist (which is why some
investors focus on identifying growth stocks, which have the capability for
explosive growth), but at the same time, there is also the possibility of
dramatic loss. The less volatile the investment, the less on average the
return will be to that investment.
e. Liquidity Risk
The final type of risk associated with stock market transactions is liquidity
risk. Liquidity risk refers to risk that the stock will not be able to be traded
fast enough to avoid or loss or capitalize on a potential profit. Liquidity
risk can be avoided by making sure the daily volume of share trading is
above a certain level.
Generally, risk is calculated by the deviation of the actual return from the required
rate of return (expected return) as a result of success/failure of an investment. Risk
of a stock can be measured by its variance or standard deviation. With the risk of
uncertainty, investors not only need to calculate the return of a stock but also the
risks associated with it.
There are two types of risks that commonly faced by the investor when investing
their money; systematic and unsystematic risk. Interest rates, recession and wars
all represent sources of systematic risk because they affect the entire market and
cannot be avoided through diversification. While unsystematic risk is company or
19
industry specific risk that is inherent in each investment. Systematic risk can be
mitigated only by being hedged, while the amount of unsystematic risk can be
reduced through appropriate diversification.
E. Inflation
In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and
services in an economy over a period of time (Blanchard, 2000). The rise of
general prices of goods and services does not merely caused inflation if it is only
happen in a moment of time. Therefore, inflation is at least measured by monthly
basis. If in one month the rise of general price of goods and services are
continuously, a country can be claimed to have an increase in inflation rate.
Inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding
period (Mankiw, 2007). Another longer period to measure inflation is by yearly,
or quarter-yearly basis. Still According to Mankiw in his books, Theory of
Macroeconomic, there are several macroeconomic indicators that can be used to
measure an inflation rate within a period;
a. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The consumer price index is a measure of the overall costs of the goods
and services brought by a typical consumer. Inflation rate can be measured
by applying the following formula:
(2.3)
b. Wholesale Price Index
20
If consumer price index measure inflation rate from the perspective of the
consumers, wholesale price index measure inflation rate from the
perspective of the producers. Wholesale price index measures the cost of a
basket of goods and services. Inflation rate can be measured by applying
the following formula:
(2.4)
c. GDP Deflator
Two previously discussed indicators have some limitation in measuring
inflation rate. Both indicators only measure some goods and services in
some cities, and it does not reflect the overall goods and services produced
and consumed within a country. Therefore, economist uses GDP deflator
to measure inflation rate more precisely. GDP Deflator is the ratio of
nominal GDP to real GDP. Because nominal GDP is current output valued
at current prices and real GDP is current output valued at base-year prices,
GDP deflator reflects the current level of prices relatives to the level of
prices in the base year. Interest rate calculation using GDP deflator can be
measured as follows:
21
(2.5)
Theoretically, inflation has a negative relationship with the stock return. This
phenomenon is caused by:
a. Cost-push inflation
When the cost of production increases, a company‟s ability to fulfill the
demand from the customer is decrease. This will cause an aggregate
supply. Aggregate supply is the total volume of goods and services
produced by an economy at a given price level. When there is a decrease
in the aggregate supply of goods and services stemming from an increase
in the cost of production, cost-push inflation occurred. Cost-push inflation
basically means that prices have been “pushed up” by increases in costs of
any of the four factors of production (labor, capital, land or
entrepreneurship) when companies are already running at full production
capacity. With higher production costs and productivity maximized,
companies cannot maintain profit margins by producing the same amounts
of goods and services. As a result, the increased costs are passed on to
consumers, causing a rise in the general price level (inflation).
b. Demand-pull inflation
Demand-pull inflation occurs when there is an increase in aggregate
demand, categorized by the four sections of the macroeconomic:
households, businesses, governments and foreign buyers. When these four
22
sectors concurrently want to purchase more output than the economy can
produce, they compete to purchase limited amounts of goods and services.
1. Relationship between inflation and stock return
Inflation influences the purchasing power of the individuals in some
extend. Brealey and Meyer (2000) exposes that inflation has a negative
inlfluences to the stock performance in capital market. When inflation rate
increase, the price of overall goods and services increase as well. Thus will make
individuals loose their ability to invest in capital market. They prefer to fulfill
their basic needs first before making an investment. The capital matket will suffer
because of this condition. The price of overall stocks in the capital market will
decrease and thus make the return of the stock decrease as well.
F. Interest Rate
According to Mankiw (2007, p. 297), an interest rate is the rate at which
interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money that they borrow from a lender.
It is consist of two types, real and nominal interest rate. In finance and economics
nominal interest rate or nominal rate of interest refers to the rate of interest before
adjustment for inflation (in contrast with the real interest rate); or, for interest
rates "as stated" without adjustment for the full effect of compounding (also
referred to as the nominal annual rate). An interest rate is called nominal if the
frequency of compounding (e.g. a month) is not identical to the basic time unit
(normally a year). The "real interest rate" is approximately the nominal interest
23
rate minus the inflation rate. It is the rate of interest an investor expects to receive
after subtracting inflation.
The relationship between real and nominal interest rates can be described in the
equation (Brealey and Meyer, 2000)
( )( ) ( )
(2.6)
Where r is the real interest rate, i is the inflation rate, and R is the nominal interest
rate.
1. Relationship between interest rate and stock return
Interest rate are important variables in for macroeconomic to understand
because they link the economy of the present and the economy of the future
through their effects on saving and investment (Mankiw, 2007 p.369). Keynes
reanalyzed about the effect of interest rate on investment decision. The increase of
interest rate could increase the exchange rate, but this can make the price of stock
decrease. Keynes also stated the negative relationship between interest rate and
stock price. This happen because if the interest rate increases, people tend to
invest their money in the form of deposit, and thus make investment in capital
market weakened.
The relationship between interest rate and investment decision also explained by
Fisher in his Theory of Investment(1930). Through the IS and LM curve, if the
24
interest rate increase, the cost of investment will increase and thus make
company‟s profit decrease. A decrease in profit will make a dividend for the
stockholder decrease too, which affected the stock price to be decreasing as well.
2. SBI (Bank Indonesia Certificate) Rate
In the past two centuries, interest rates have been variously set either by
national governments or central banks. In Indonesia, the interest rate is set by the
Central Bank of Indonesia, namely BI rate. The SBI Rate is announced by the
Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia in each monthly Board of Governors
Meeting. It is implemented in the Bank Indonesia monetary operations conducted
by means of liquidity management on the money market through SBI Rate to
achieve the monetary policy operational target.
The monetary policy operational target is reflected in movement in the Interbank
Overnight (O/N) Rate. It is then expected that bank deposit rates will track the
movement in interbank rates, with bank lending rates following suit.
While other factors in the economy are also taken into account, Bank Indonesia
will normally raise the BI Rate if future inflation is forecasted ahead of the
established inflation target. Conversely, Bank Indonesia will lower the BI Rate if
future inflation is predicted below the inflation target.
The benchmark interest rate in Indonesia was last reported at 6.50 percent. In
Indonesia the interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Republic of
Indonesia. The official interest rate is the Discount rate. This is the rate at which
25
central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically
shown on an end-of-period basis. From 2005 until 2010, Indonesia's average
interest rate was 8.76 percent reaching an historical high of 12.75 percent in
December of 2005 and a record low of 6.50 percent in August of 2009. The graph
below represents the interest rate in Indonesia from December 2005 to August
2009.
Figure 2.1 (Indonesia Interest Rate)
G. Exchange Rate
According to Jeff Madura (2007, p.78), exchange rate between two
countries specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the
value of a foreign nation‟s currency in terms of the home nation‟s currency.
According to traditional approach, exchange rates lead stock prices. This approach
states that stock price is expected to lead exchange rate with a negative correlation
26
since a decrease in stock prices reduces domestic wealth, which leads to lower
domestic money demand and interest rates (Aydemir and Demirhan, 2009). Also,
the decrease in domestic stock prices leads foreign investors to lower demand for
domestic assets and domestic currency. These shifts in demand and supply of
currencies cause capital outflows and the depreciation of domestic currency. On
the other hand, when stock prices rise, foreign investors become willing to invest
in a country‟s equity securities. Thus, they will get benefit from international
diversification. This situation will lead to capital inflows and a currency
appreciation (Granger et al. 2000;Pan et al. 2007).
Exchange rates can affect stock prices not only for multinational and export
oriented firms but also for domestic firms. For a multinational company, changes
in exchange rates will result in both an immediate change in value of its foreign
operations and a continuing change in the profitability of its foreign operations
reflected in successive income statements. Therefore, the changes in economic
value of firm‟s foreign operations may influence stock prices. Domestic firms can
also be influenced by changes in exchange rates since they may import a part of
their inputs and export their outputs. For example, a devaluation of its currency
makes imported inputs more expensive and exported outputs cheaper for a firm.
Thus, devaluation will make positive effect for export firms (Aggarwal, 1981) and
increase the income of these firms, consequently, boosting the average level of
stock prices (Wu, 2000).
1. Relationship between exchang rate and stock return
27
Stock return will get effected by the fluctuation of exchange rate in a
country (Wu, 2000). When the exchange rate fluctuates, foreign investor
will get atrratcted to invest their money in capital market. Thus will make
the price of stock corrected.
H. Previous Research
In 2004, Maysami, et al. made a research about relationship between
selected macroeconomic variables and the Singapore Stock Market Index (STI),
as well as with various Singapore Exchange Sector Indices-the finance index, the
property index, and the hotel index. This research used VCEM model proposed by
Johansen(1990) which allows for testing cointegration in a whole system of
equations in one stop, without requiring a specific variable to be normalized. The
research‟s data is the monthly time-series which is obtained from the
PublicAccess Time-Series system, an online service by the Singapore Department
of Statistics. And the SES All-S Equities indicies figures are obtained from the
Singapore Statistics published by the Singapore Department of Statistics. The
study concludes that the Singapore‟s stock market and the property index form
cointegrating relationship with changes in the short and long-term interest rates,
industrial production, price levels, exchange rate and money supply
(macroeconomics variables).
Gay (2008) conducted a research about effect of macroeconomic variables on
stock market return for four emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model used to describe the relationship will use the
28
moving-averages at the one-month MA(1), three-month MA(3), six-month
MA(6), and twelve-month MA(12) for the lagged dependent of stock market price
and the two intervening variables of exchange rate and oil price. Available
monthly data for stock market price index, exchange rate, and oil price between
1999:03 to 2006:06 for Brazil, Russia, India, and China from the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is used in this study, which
will provide 90 observations per variable for each BRIC for a total of 1,080
observations. This study concludes that no significant relationship was found
between respective exchange rate and oil price (Macroeconomic variables) on the
stock market index prices of either BRIC country, this may be due to the influence
other domestic and international macroeconomic factors on stock market returns,
warranting further research. Also, there was no significant relationship found
between present and past stock market returns, suggesting the markets of Brazil,
Russia, India, and China exhibit the weak-form of market efficiency.
Wan Mahmood (2009) from Universiti Teknologi Mara Trengganu, Malaysia,
examine the dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables
in six Asian-Pacific selected countries of Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong,
Japan, and Australia. The monthly data on stock price indices, foreign exchange
rates, consumer price index and industrial production index that spans from
January 1993 to December 2002 are used. This study performed two cointegration
tests of Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen and Juselius as his method. The
results indicate the existing of a long run equilibrium relationship between and
among variables in only four countries, i.e., Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and
29
Australia. As for short run relationship, all countries except for Hong Kong and
Thailand show some interactions. The Hong Kong shows relationship only
between exchange rate and stock price while the Thailand reports significant
interaction only between output and stock prices. An accurate estimation of these
relationships enables investors to make effective investment decisions. At the
same time, it helps policy makers in designing policies to encourage more capital
inflows into the respective countries‟ capital market.
Pakistani scholar, Ahmad et al. (2010) performed a study that examines the
relationship between stock return, interest rate and exchange rates in Pakistani
economy. For this, the data of short term interest rate, exchange rate (Rs/US $)
and stock market returns (KSE-100) over the period of 1998-2009 is collected. A
multiple regression model is applied to test the significance of change in interest
rate and exchange on stock returns. The results show that both the change in
interest rate and change in exchange rate has a significant impact on stock returns
over the sample period.
Kandir (2008) investigates the role of macroeconomic factors in explaining
Turkish stock returns. A macroeconomic factor model is employed for the period
that spans from July 1997 to June 2005. Macroeconomic variables used in this
study are, growth rate of industrial production index, change in consumer price
index, growth rate of narrowly defined money supply, change in exchange rate,
interest rate, growth rate of international crude oil price and return on the MSCI
World Equity Index. This study uses data for all non-financial firms listed on the
ISE. The analysis is based on stock portfolios rather than single stocks. In
30
portfolio construction, four criteria are used: market equity, the book-to-market
equity, the earnings-to-price equity and the leverage ratio. A multiple regression
model is designed to test the relationship between the stock portfolio returns and
seven macroeconomic factors. Empirical findings reveal that exchange rate,
interest rate and world market return seem to affect all of the portfolio returns,
while inflation rate is significant for only three of the twelve portfolios. On the
other hand, industrial production, money supply and oil prices do not appear to
have any significant affect on stock returns.
Meanwhile, In Indonesia, there was Handoko (2003) who examines a few of
macro economics variables which are influencing the rate of return of stocks
portfolios from all public companies in consumer goods industry which are
already listing at Jakarta Stocks Exchange. The model in building a portfolio is
based on market share with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analyzing method is
using to test the six-independent variables simultaneously which are predicted
influencing the rate of return in every portfolio, which are Stock Price Index in
Jakarta Stocks Exchange, non-gas and petroleum export, the currency of Rupiah,
rate of interest, price of gold and Consumer Price Index in food industry. The
sample uses in this study is taking from all go-public companies in consumer
goods industry during January 2000 -December 2003 period of time and gets 48
observations. The analysis result is showing that not all the independent variables
which are predicted having a significant influence through the rate of return of
stock portfolio.
31
Another research conducted by Softameiono (2007) proposed there is relationship
between macroeconomics variable; inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate, and
stock return in banking sector. The data is gathered from Jakarta Stock Exchange
which are the stock returns in Banking sector listed in two effects from January
2002 to February 2004. The method used to analyze the data is regression of panel
data with random effect. Besides, the T test, F test, and Determination test is also
employed. The result is macroeconomic variables (interest rate, inflation and
exchange rate) give significance influence to the stocks return in Indonesia Stock
Exchange. The most significant variable is exchange rate.
I. Research Framework and Hypotheses
a. Inflation and Stock’s Return
Theoretically, inflation and a stock‟s rate of return have a negative relationship. If
an inflation rate increased, a stock‟s rate of return will decrease and vice versa.
Based on the theories and previous studies, we formulate hypothesis as follow:
H0 : There is no relationship between inflation rate and stock‟s rate of return
H1 : There is a negative relationship between inflation rate and stock‟s rate
b. Interest Rate and Stock’s Return
Theoretically, interest rate and a stock‟s rate of return have a negative
relationship. If an interest rate increased, a stock‟s rate of return will decrease and
32
vice versa. Based on the theories and previous studies, we formulate hypothesis as
follow:
H0 : There is no relationship between interest rate and stock‟s rate of
return.
H1 : There is a negative relationship between interest rate and stock‟s rate
of return.
c. Exchange Rate and Stock’s Return
Theoretically, exchange rate and a stock‟s rate of return have a negative
relationship. If an exchange rate increased, a stock‟s rate of return will decrease
and vice versa. Based on the theories and previous studies, we formulate
hypothesis as follow:
H0 : There is no relationship between exchange rate and stock‟s rate of
return.
H1 : There is a negative relationship between exchange rate and stock‟s
rate of return.
Based on the previous study, there is no fixed explanation about what
macroeconomic factors that influence the stock‟s rate of return. Therefore, this
research aims to investigate the specific macroeconomic factors that influence the
stock‟s rate of return with developing multi index model as follows:
33
Figure 2.2 (Research Model)
Interest Rate
Stock‟s
Rate of
Return
Inflation
Exchange Rate
Dependent
Variable
Independent
Variable
34
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
A. Data Collection
1. Unit of Analysis and Research Sampling
The unit of analysis refers to the level of aggregation of the data collected
during the subsequent data analysis stage (Cooper et al., 2006). This research
focusing on the influence of selected macroeconomic variables on stock‟s rate of
return. The unit of analysis for this study is the market sector indices listed in
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The market sector indices in Indonesia Stock
Exchange (IDX) is divided into 10 sectors; mining, agricultural, consumer goods,
miscellaneous industry, manufacturing, infrastructure and transportation, finance,
trade investment and services, chemical basic industry and property and real estate
The sample of this research is the market sector indices on consumer goods and
property and real estate sector during the period 2006-2010. Both categories are
chosen because each category have different characteristic than others. The
market sector indicies on consumer goods sector is less likely to be affected by the
cyclical factor (in this research, we examine 3 macroeconomic variable) compared
with the market sector indices on property and real estate sector. From that
sample, the writer able to calculate the stock‟s return during the period stated.
35
2. Types of Data
This research uses a secondary type of data, which is obtained from certain
sources. The independent variable data, which are inflation rate and exchange
rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar is obtained from Indonesia‟s Economic
and Financial Statistic published by Bank of Indonesia while the data of inflation
rate is gathered from National Statistical Bureau (BPS).
B. Research Models
This research uses multiple linear regression models as follow:
Model 1
(3.1)
Model 2
(3.2)
where,
Ri = Stock return of property and real estate sector
Rj = Stock return of consumer goods sector
α = Intercept
β = Regression coefficient
IR = the Indonesia Interest Rate (SBI) change
INFLATION = the inflation rate change
36
EXCHANGE RATE = the change in exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to
US Dollar
C. Operational Variable
Operational variable is a statement of the specific dimensions and
elements through which a concept will become measurable (Sekaran, 2006).There
are two kinds of variable, which are independent variable and dependent variable,
which we turn into certain dimension and definition.
The operational definition of each variable is as follow:
1. Stock’s Rate of Return
In calculating a stock‟s rate of return, the writer uses continuous
compounding method as follow:
[
]
(3.3)
Where,
rt = Continuously compounded returns on t period
Pt = Stock Price on t period
Pt-1 = Stock Price on t-1 period
From the formula above, we can see that a stock‟s rate of return can be
seen by the margin of change in stock‟s price. The data of stock price used is the
closing price which gathered monthly during December 2005- December 2010.
37
2. Inflation Rate
The inflation rate data used in this research calculated from change in
monthly inflation rate based on Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation per month
can be calculated as follows:
(3.4)
After we calculate the monthly inflation rate, then to measure the change in
inflation rate we can use this following formula:
(3.5)
Where,
INFLATIONt = Change in inflation rate during t period
INFt = Inflation on t period
INFt-1 = Inflation on t-1 period
3. Exchange Rate
This research uses exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar. The
exchange rate uses is the mid-point between buy and write price.
38
(3.6)
Where,
EXRATEt = Change in exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US
Dollar in a t period
ERt = Exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar in t
period
ERt-1 = Exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar in t-1
period
This data is gained from the exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar in
monthly basis during December 2005-December 2010 published by Bank of
Indonesia.
4. Interest Rate
In this research, interest rate refers to Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI)
Rate on monthly basis. The operational definition used in this research is the
change in SBI rate. Change in Indonesia Interest Rate is defined as follows:
(3.7)
Where,
∆IRATE = Change in interest rate (SBI rate) on t period
39
IRt = Interest rate (SBI rate) on t period
IRt-1 = Interest rate (SBI rate) on t-1 period
D. Data Analysis Technique
Regression analysis will be used to test hypotheses formulated for this
study. Three variables (inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate) were entered.
Multiple regressions will determine the significant relationship between
dependent and independent variables, the direction of the relationship, the degree
of the relationship and strength of the relationship (Sekaran, 2006). Multiple
regression are most sophisticated extension of correlation and are used to explore
the predict ability of a set of independent variables on dependent variable (Pallant,
2001). Three hypotheses generated. From the hypothesis it gives direction to
assess the statistical relationship between the dependent and independent
variables. The convention of P value has been set as of 5% i.e. 0.05 used as
evidence of a statistical association between the dependent and independent
variables.
To gather the best model of research, researcher must perform other pre-tests. The
test are: normality test, assumption test (heteroscedasticity test, auto-correlation
test, multi-collinearity test), and hypothesis test.
1. Normality Test
In statistics, normality tests are used to determine whether a data set is
well-modeled by a normal distribution or not, or to compute how likely an
40
underlying random variable is to be normally distributed. An informal approach to
testing normality is to compare a histogram of the residuals to a normal
probability curve. The actual distribution of the residuals (the histogram) should
be bell-shaped and resemble the normal distribution.
There are certain methods to detect whether data is normally distributed or not.
The methods are using Histogram of Residual, Normal Probability Plot, and
Jarque-Bera Test. In this research, researchers want to use a method proposed by
Jarque Bera or commonly known as Jarque Bera Test to gather the most accurate
model of data.
a. Jarque-Bera Test of Normality
The JB test of normality is an asymptotic, or large-sample, test. It is also based on
the OLS residuals (Gujarati, 2004). This test first computes the skewness and
kurtosis measures of the OLS residuals and uses the following test statistic:
[
( )
]
(3.8)
Where,
n = sample size
S = skewness coefficient
K = kurtosis coefficient
For a normally distributed variable, S=0 and K=3. Therefore, the JB test of
normality is a test of the joint hypothesis that S and K are 0 and 3, respectively. In
that case the value of the JB statistic is expected to be 0.
41
Regarding this, the hypothesis of Jarque-Bera Test is described as follows:
H0 : Data is not normally distributed
Ha : Data is normally distributed
To detect whether the variable is normally distributed or not, one can compare the
value of Jarque Bera statistic with the value of Jarque Bera table (X2)., as follows:
a. If JB Statistic > X2, the data is not normally distributed, and thus we do
not reject H0.
b. If JB Statistic < X2 , the data is normally distributed, and thus we reject H0.
2. Classical Assumption Test
The Gaussian, standard, or classical linear regression model (CLRM),
which is the cornerstone of most econometric theory, makes 10 assumptions
underlying of Ordinary Least Square method (Gujarati, 2004, p.65). This research
will focus on its 6 basic assumption in context of the two-variable regression
model.
Assumption 1 : Linear Regression Model. The regression model is linear in
the parameters
Assumption 2 : X values (The independent variable) are fixed in repeated
sampling. Values taken by the regressor X are considered fixed
in repeated samples. More technically, X is assumed to be
nonstochastic.
Assumption3 : Zero mean value of disturbance ui. Given the value of X, the
mean, or expected, value of the random disturbance term ui is
42
zero. Technically, the conditional mean value of ui is zero.
Symbolically, we have
( | )
(3.9)
Assumption 4 : Homoscedasticity or equal variance of ui. Given the value
of X, the variance of ui is the same for all observations. That is,
the conditional variances of ui are identical. Symbolically, we
have
( | )
(3.10)
Assumption 5 : No autocorrelation between the disturbances. Given any
two X values, Xi and Xj (i≠ j), the correlation between any two
ui and uj (i≠j) is zero. Symbolically, we have
( | )
(3.11)
Assumption 6 : Zero covariance between ui and Xi, or E(uiXi) = 0. By
Assumption,
( )
(3.12)
43
As noted earlier, given the assumptions of the classical linear regression model,
the least-squares estimates possess some ideal or optimum properties. These
properties are contained in the well-known Gauss–Markov theorem. To
understand this theorem, we need to consider the best linear unbiasedness
property of an estimator. The OLS estimator is said to be a best linear unbiased
estimator (BLUE) if the following hold (Brooks, 2002):
1. It is linear, that is, a linear function of a random variable, such as the
dependent variable Y in the regression model.
2. It is unbiased, that is, its average or expected value, E(β2), is equal to the
true value, β2.
3. It has minimum variance in the class of all such linear unbiased estimators;
an unbiased estimator with the least variance is known as an efficient
estimator.
The classical assumption test needed to ensure that the regression model is the
best estimator or BLUE. The classical assumption test also used to detect any
mislead of the classical linear model. The test used are Heteroscedastic Test,
Auto-Correlation Test, and Multi-Colinearity Test.
a. Heteroscedastic Test
One of the important assumptions of the classical linear regression model
is that the variance of each disturbance term ui, conditional on the chosen values
of the explanatory variables, is some constant number equal to σ2. This is the
assumption of homoscedasticity, or equal (homo) spread (scedasticity). When the
44
variance of each disturbance ui is not constant however, there is heteroscedasticity
on that variance. Still according to Gujarati in his book Basic Econometric, the
consequences of heteroscedasticity in the regression model is as follows:
1. The estimator produced will still be consistent, but that estimator will be
no longer efficient. Meaning that, there are variance that has little error
than the estimator produced in the regression model that contains
heteroscedasticity.
2. Estimator produced from the regression linear model is no longer have an
accurate heteroscedastic. This will cause the hypothesis testing become not
accurate.
In short, if we persist in using the usual testing procedures despite
heteroscedasticity, whatever conclusion we draw or influences we make may be
very misleading.
To detect whether heteroscedasticity is present in the data, researcher will conduct
a formal test using White Test method. The reason why researcher use White‟s
General Heteroscedasticity Test is because it does not rely on the normality
assumption and easy to implement. The White test proceeds as follows:
Step 1. Given the data, we estimate regression model and obtain the residuals,ui
(3.13)
Step 2. We then run the following (auxiliary) regression:
45
(3.14)
Step 3. Formulate the Hypothesis Test
H0 = There is no heteroscedastic
Ha = There is heteroscedastic
Under the null hypothesis that there is no heteroscedasticity, it can be shown that
sample size (n) times the R2 obtained from the auxiliary regression asymptotically
follows the chi-square distribution with df equal to the number of regressors
(excluding the constant term) in the auxiliary regression. That is,
(3.15)
Step 4. If the chi-square value obtained in (3.15) exceeds the critical chi-square
value at the chosen level of significance, the conclusion is that there is
heteroscedasticity. If it does not exceed the critical chi-square value, there is no
heteroscedasticity, which is to say that in the auxiliary regression (3.14).
If heteroscedasticity truly exist, one can use the Generelized Square
Method or White Test method. White Test method developed heteroscedasticity-
corrected standard error. Software Eviews 5 has already provided White method
to overcome heteroscedastic.
46
b. Autocorrelation Test
The term autocorrelation may be defined as correlation between members
of series of observations ordered in time [as in time series data] or space [as in
cross-sectional data] (Gujarati, 2004, p.442). In the fifth assumption of the
classical linear regression model, it assumes that such autocorrelation does not
exist in the disturbance uj,. The classical model assumes that the disturbance term
relating to any observation is not influenced by the disturbance term relating to
any other observation.
As in the case of heteroscedasticity, in the presence of autocorrelation the OLS
estimators are still linear unbiased as well as consistent and asymptotically
normally distributed, but they are no longer efficient (i.e., minimum variance).
Therefore, the usual t and F tests of significance are no longer valid, and if
applied, are likely to give seriously misleading conclusions about the statistical
significance of the estimated regression coefficients.
To detect autocorrelation, the writer use The Breusch-Godfrey (BG) Test in the
application software EViews 5. BG Test, which is also known as Lagrange-
Multiplier LM Test involves the following hypothesis:
Ho: There is auto-correlation
H1: There is no auto-correlation
After we run the test, we can analyze the result by comparing the value of Obs*R-
squared, which comes from the coefficient determination (R squared multiple
47
with the number of observation), and the value of the probability with the
significant value (α), as follows:
If the Probability > α = 5%, there is no auto-correlation, thus we reject Ho.
If the Probability < α = 5%, there is auto-correlation, thus we failed to
reject H0
c. Multi-Collinearity Test
Estimator that has BLUE characteristic supposed to be not contains
multicollinearity. Since multicollinearity is essentially a sample phenomenon,
arising out of the largely nonexperimental data collected in most social sciences,
there is no one unique method of detecting it or measuring its strength. In this
research, the writer will detect the existence of multi-collinearity by using
software Eviews 5. The method that will be used is through the examination of
partial correlation. This method is developed by Farrar and Glauber. They
suggested that in examining the existence of multicollinearity one should look at
the partial correlation coefficient (Gujarati, 2004). Thus, in the regression of Y on
X2, X3, and X4, a finding that R2 1.234 is very high but r 2 12.34, r 2 13.24, and r 2 14.23 are
comparatively low may suggest that the variables X1, X2, and X3 are highly
intercorrelated and that at least one of these variables is superfluous.
48
3. Hypothesis Test
a. t- test
According Bhuono Theories (2005) if t test > t table therefore Ho rejected
and Ha accepted, that means independent variables partially as influence
significantly toward dependent variable. If t test < t table therefore Ho accepted
and Ha rejected, that means independent variable partially has no influence
significantly toward dependent variable. Level of significant use amount 5% or
(α) 0.05. Based on the theory above, so the test for each hypothesis is as follow:
a. Hypothesis related to interest rate
H0 : β1 ≥ 0
H1 : β1 < 0
b. Hypothesis related to inflation
H0 : β2 ≥ 0
H1 : β2 < 0
c. Hypothesis related to exchange rate
H0 : β3 ≥ 0
H1 : β3 < 0
b. F test
The function of Ftest is to see and understand the influence of both
independent variables toward dependent variables. Steps of this test:
a. Create the hypothesis formulation
HO: β1= β2= β3= 0, There was no influence that is significant from the
independent variable (X) together against the dependent variable (Y).
49
HA: β1≠ β2 ≠ β3≠ 0, There was influence that is significant from the
independent variable (X) together against the dependent variable (Y)
b. Determine the level of the significant of 5%
c. R Square (R2) Test
We know that one of the measures of goodness of fit of a regression model
is R2, which is defined as:
(3.16)
R2, thus defined, of necessity lies between 0 and 1. The closer it is to 1, the better
is the fit.
d. Adjusted R Squared Test
The value of adjusted R Squared always smaller than the value of R
Squared. Adjusted R Squared penalizes for adding more regressors. Unlike R2,
adjusted R2 will increase only if the absolute t value of the added variable is
greater than 1. The closer it is to 1, the better is the fit. This means that the
independent variable used could explain almost 100% of the variance in the
dependent variable.
50
E. Research Design
Figure 3.1 Research Framework
Sampling Process
Dependent Variable Independent Variable
Sectoral market return
indicies
Macroeconomic
factors(inflation,SBI
rate,exchange rate
Calculate based on
operational variable
definition
Calculate based on
operational variable
definition
𝑅𝑖 𝛼𝑖 𝛽𝑖 𝐼𝑅 𝛽𝑖 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝐿𝐴𝑇𝐼𝑂𝑁 𝛽𝑖 𝐸𝑋𝐶𝐻𝐴𝑁𝐺𝐸 𝑅𝐴𝑇𝐸 𝑒𝑖
𝑅𝑗 𝛼𝑗 𝛽𝑗 𝐼𝑅 𝛽𝑗 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝐿𝐴𝑇𝐼𝑂𝑁 𝛽𝑗 𝐸𝑋𝐶𝐻𝐴𝑁𝐺𝐸 𝑅𝐴𝑇𝐸 𝑒𝑗
Regression Model
Model 1 :
Model 2 :
Regression model test
Hypothesis test
Analysis
Conclusion
51
CHAPTER 4
RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
A. Brief Introduction
This chapter will present the process of data processing through the
statistical tools as well as the analysis of the findings. The data will be processed
through the statistical software Eviews 5 using the multiple regression analysis
model. The model will be tested using the OLS (Originally Least Squared)
Method before conducting the multiple regression analysis model. To ensure that
the model has the characteristic BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator), before
testing the significance of the model, we conduct the classical assumption test
which consists of normality test, heteroscedasticity test, multi-collinearity test,
and autocorrelation test. If the model is passing those classical assumption tests,
thus we assume that the model has BLUE characteristic and we will be ready to
test the significance of the model. But if the model has not passed yet, we will do
some remedial actions accordingly. After achieving a model that has BLUE
characteristic, the writer can interpret the result and make the analyses as well as
compare it with the theoretical assumption.
52
B. Descriptive Statistics
The descriptive statistics that will be used in this research is as follows:
CG P&R EXRATE INLATION SBI
Mean 0.022268 0.019215 -0.000831 -0.483316 -0.011012
Median 0.003819 0.024407 -0.003781 -0.076498 -0.007476
Maximum 0.193360 0.306532 0.172425 9.000000 0.130793
Minimum -0.169444 -0.340247 -0.098840 -35.00000 -0.105425
Std. Dev. 0.067858 0.099661 0.037145 5.192304 0.036939
Skewness 0.352901 -0.521612 1.717417 -5.028711 0.705108
Kurtosis 3.747713 5.198717 10.70772 34.36123 6.116995
Jarque-Bera 2.643079 14.80669 178.0175 2711.697 29.26092
Probability 0.266724 0.609000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
Sum 1.336056 1.152927 -0.049875 -28.99897 -0.660716
SumSq.
Dev. 0.271681 0.586010 0.081406 1590.641 0.080504
Observations 60 60 60 60 60
Table 4.1
Where,
CG : Return in Consumer Goods Sector
P&R : Return in Property and Real Estate Sector
EXRATE : Change in Exchange Rate (Monthly)
INFLATION : Change in Inflation Rate (Monthly)
SBI : Change in SBI Rate (Monthly)
53
Explanation of Table 4.1:
1. The dependent variable of the stocks rate of return in consumer goods
sector has an average return of 0.022268. The maximum return of
consumer goods sector during the period of observation is 0.193360, while
the minimum return is -0.169444 with the 6.785 % standard deviation. In
the meantime, the dependent variable of the stocks rate of return in
property and real estate sector has an average return of 0.019215. The
maximum return of property and real estate sector during the period of
observation is 0.306532, while the minimum return is -0.340247with the
9.9661 % standard deviation.
2. As for the independent variable, the change in exchange rate during the
period of the observation has an average change of -0.000831. The
maximum change is 0.172425 and the minimum change is -0.098840 with
3.7145% standard deviation. Another variable, which is change in inflation
rate, has an average change of -0.483316. The maximum change is
9.000000 and the minimum change is -35.00000with 519.2304% standard
deviation. And as the last independent variable, which is change in SBI
rate, it has the average change of -0.011012. The maximum change is
0.130793 and the minimum change is -0.105425 with 3.6939% standard
deviation.
C. Normality Test
In this research, the writer uses the normality test of Jarque Bera using statistical
software Eviews 5. Normality test is used to test whether the residual of the model
54
used in the research is normally distributed or not. The diagram below present the
result of normality test using histogram residual/Jarque-Bera method for the
consumer goods sector:
Figure 4.1 (Histogram Residual, Consumer Goods Sector)
Figure 4.2 (Histogram Residual, Property and Real Estate Sector)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-0.10 -0.05 -0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
Series: Residuals
Sample 2006M01 2010M12
Observations 60
Mean -4.97e-18
Median -0.005805
Maximum 0.145997
Minimum -0.105790
Std. Dev. 0.057312
Skewness 0.487487
Kurtosis 2.684504
Jarque-Bera 2.625284
Probability 0.269108
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.2
Series: Residuals
Sample 2006M01 2010M12
Observations 60
Mean 6.94e-19
Median 0.001880
Maximum 0.238803
Minimum -0.167392
Std. Dev. 0.079104
Skewness 0.363828
Kurtosis 3.382237
Jarque-Bera 1.688972
Probability 0.429778
55
From the Figure 4.1 we can see that the probability of Jarque Bera of the
consumer goods sector is bigger than α ( 0.269108 > 0.05). Thus, we failed to
reject the Null Hypothesis and that means the residual of the model is normally
distributed.
From the Figure 4.2 we can see that the probability of Jarque Bera of the property
and real estate sector is bigger than α ( 0.429778 > 0.05). Thus, we failed to reject
the Null Hypothesis and that means the residual of the model is normally
distributed.
D. Classical Assumption Test
In order to achieve the model that has BLUE characteristic, the writer
needs to conduct the classical assumption test before doing the regression
analysis. If in this test we find that the model is not resulting in BLUE
characteristic we will use the remedial measurement accordingly.
1. Heteroscedasticity Test
One of the important assumptions of the classical linear regression model
is that the variance of each disturbance, conditional on the chosen values of the
explanatory variables, is somewhat constant. This is the assumption of
homoscedasticity.
To detect whether heteroscedasticity is present in the data, the writer will conduct
a formal test using White Test method. The reason why we use White‟s General
Heteroscedasticity Test is because it does not rely on the normality assumption
and easy to implement.
56
After using the statistical software Eviews 5, the writer find the result of White
Heteroscedasticity Test- No cross terms, as follows:
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 1.985143 Probability 0.084204
Obs*R-squared 11.00974 Probability 0.088076
Table 4.2 (Heteroscedasticity Test for Consumer Goods Sector)
Table 4.2 presents the result of the White Heteroscedasticity test on consumer
goods sector using statistical software Eviews 5. The result of the test provides the
proof that the data we are using is free from heteroscedastic problem
(homoscedastic). From the test above, we can see that the probability of Obs*R-
squared is bigger than our significant value (0.088076 > 0.05) and thus we can
reject the null hypothesis.
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.538939 Probability 0.776195
Obs*R-squared 3.450216 Probability 0.750581
Table 4.3 (Heteroscedasticity Test for Property and Real Estate Sector)
57
Table 4.3 presents the result of the White Heteroscedasticity test on property and
real estate sector using statistical software Eviews 5. The result of the test
provides the proof that the data we are using is free from heteroscedastic problem
(homoscedastic). From the test above, we can see that the probability of Obs*R-
squared is bigger than our significant value (0750581 > 0.05) and thus we can
reject the null hypothesis.
2. Auto-Correlation Test
As in the case of heteroscedasticity, in the presence of autocorrelation the
OLS estimators are still linear unbiased as well as consistent and asymptotically
normally distributed, but they are no longer efficient (i.e., minimum variance).
To detect autocorrelation, the writer use The Breusch-Godfrey (BG) Test, which
is also known as Lagrange-Multiplier LM Test in the application software EViews
5. The results are presented in tables below:
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.150862 Probability 0.860328
Obs*R-squared 0.333385 Probability 0.846460
Table 4.4 (Auto-Correlation Test for Consumer Goods Sector)
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.587759 Probability 0.559086
Obs*R-squared 1.278303 Probability 0.527740
Table 4.5 (Auto-Correlation Test for Property and Real Estate Sector)
58
From the Table 4.4 we find that the probability Obs*R-squared from the data of
consumer goods sector is bigger than sig. value α (0.846460 > 0.05), thus we can
conclude that auto-correlation is not existed in our data. The same result happens
in the property and real estate sector. As if presented in Table 4.5, the probability
Obs*R-squared is bigger than sig. value α (0.527740> 0.05), thus we can reject
the null hypothesis and conclude that there is no auto-correlation in our data.
3. Multi-Collinearity Test
R-Squared
Y
R-Squared
X1
R-Squared
X2
R-Squared
X3
Consumer Goods 0.286679 0.170209 0.039652 0.142669
Property and Real Estate 0.369993 0.170209 0.039652 0.142669
Table 4.6 (Multi-Collinearity Test)
When examining the existence of multi-collinearity, one should look at the
partial correlation coefficient (Gujarati, 2004). The table above describes the
summary of the linear regression, given each variable to be the dependent
variable. For the consumer goods sector, the R-Squared of the Dependent Variable
(Y) is bigger than its independent variables (y=28.6667 % > x1=17.0209% >
x2=3.9652% > x3=14.26%), and thus we reject H0 and assume that there is no
multi-collinearity existed in the data. The same thing goes for Property and Real
Estate Sector, where the obtained R-squared Y is 36.99%, which is bigger than its
independent variables. And thus, it is confirmed that multi-collinearity doesn‟t
exists as in the property and real estate as well.
59
E. Multiple Linear Regression Model
Several classical assumption tests have done through the model to ensure
that the model is a good estimator. In this research, the writer use the multiple
linear regression model to estimate the influence of the inflation rate, exchange
rate and SBI rate to the return of stocks in consumer goods and property and real
estate sector.
In order to achieve that, the writers use the statistical software Eviews 5 which is
resulted in models as follow:
4.1 Model of Consumer Goods Sector
4.2 Model of Property and Real Estate Sector
F. Hypothesis Testing
1. T-Test
The model above is obtained from the T-statistic Test using the multiple
linear regression models. The purpose of using this model is to estimate the
influence of each independent variable to the dependent variable respectively. T-
test, which is conducted using the statistical software Eviews 5 is resulted in the
output as follows:
RCG = 0.016385 -0.693450 EXRATE + 3.36E-05 INF - 0.483347 SBI + e
RPROP = 0.008209 - 1.065215 EXRATE - 0.000461 INF - 0.898840 SBI + e
60
Table 4.7 Multi-Collinearity Test
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 16:04
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.016385 0.008014 2.044428 0.0456
X1 -0.693450 0.226342 -3.063726 0.0034
X2 3.36E-05 0.001505 0.022330 0.9823
X3 -0.483347 0.223922 -2.158550 0.0352
R-squared 0.286679 Mean dependent var 0.022268
Adjusted R-squared 0.248466 S.D. dependent var 0.067858
S.E. of regression 0.058827 Akaike info criterion -2.764084
Sum squared resid 0.193796 Schwarz criterion -2.624461
Log likelihood 86.92251 F-statistic 7.502025
Durbin-Watson stat 2.016865 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000263
Where:
X1 = Exchange Rate
X2 = Inflation Rate
X3 = SBI Rate
From the Table 4.7 above, we can see that at the 95% confidence level (α = 0.05),
exchange rate and SBI rate partially has negative effect to the stock‟s return on
consumer goods sector. The probability value of the T-statistic is way below the
significance value (0.05) and thus makes us reject the Null Hypothesis and
conclude that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate and SBI rate
to the stock return on consumer goods. Inflation does not influence the return of
61
stock on consumer goods sector as it represented on the probability value of its T-
statistic, which is beyond α = 0.05. The interpretation of the intercept coefficient
and the independent variable is as follows:
The intercept coefficient of the output is 0.016385. This means if there is
no change in the rate of the independent variable (exchange rate, inflation,
and SBI rate), the stock‟s return on consumer goods would increase by
1.6385 point, based on the output.
The coefficient of exchange rate is -0.693450, which means that exchange
rate has a negative relationship with the stock‟s return on consumer goods.
If the change in exchange rate increases 1 point, the stock‟s return on
consumer goods sector would decrease by 0.693450 points, given the
remaining variables are constant. The graph below presents the graph
about the movement of exchange rate as compared to the stock‟s return in
consumer goods during the period 2006-2010.
Figure 4.3 Graph of Ex. Rate & Stock Return Movement (Cons.
Goods)
-0,2
-0,15
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
Stock's return
exchange rate
62
The negative relationship between the exchange rate and the stock‟s return
is matched with the result provided in the previous researches. This could
be explained by the following analyses:
1. When the domestic currency depreciates, we need more Rupiah to
buy US Dollar. This condition make corporations, especially MNC
that operates using foreign currency, needs more money to perform
its operation. This condition could lead to the decrease of the
company‟s profit and eventually lead their equity price falls.
Stockholders are also suffering because the fall of the stock‟s price
could lead to the decrease of their stock‟s return (capital loss).
2. Exchange rates can affect stock prices not only for multinational
and export oriented firms but also for domestic firms. Domestic
firms can also be influenced by changes in exchange rates since
they may import a part of their inputs and export their outputs. For
example, a devaluation of its currency makes imported inputs more
expensive and exported outputs cheaper for a firm. Thus,
devaluation will make positive effect for export firms (Aggarwal,
1981) and increase the income of these firms, consequently,
boosting the average level of stock prices (Wu, 2000).
3. The sample of this research is the stock‟s return during 2006-2010.
The reason behind the selection of this period is because the writer
intends to provide the latest data and also examine whether any
63
different symptoms occur since the world is being hit by the Global
Financial Crisis during the year 2007. The result shows that there is
no significant effect to the stock‟s return although the overall
prices of the stocks in consumer goods are decreasing. But overall,
Indonesia, learned from the previous Asian Financial Crisis in
1997 able to recover quickly from this crisis and thus make us
survive from the collapse in financial market.
The coefficient of inflation rate is 3.36E-05 which means that inflation has
a positive relationship to the stock‟s return. If there is a change in inflation
by 1 point, the stock‟s return on consumer goods sector would decrease by
3.36E-05 points, given the remaining variables are constant. The output of
the research shows that inflation does not influence the stock‟s return
significantly. Figure below present the graph about the movement of
inflation rate as compared to the stock‟s return in consumer goods during
the period 2006-2010.
Figure 4.4 Graph of Inflation Rate & Stock Return Movement (Cons.
Goods)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Stock's Return
Inflation
64
This result is somewhat contradicted to the result of the previous research
due to the following analyses:
1. Indonesia has a large number of populations. The productivity ages
of average Indonesian are 24 years old. This could be very
potential to increase the domestic consumption. As the domestic
consumption always show a positive trend, the performance of the
issuers in this sector does not significantly affected by the change
in inflation.
2. Consumer goods sector indices are proven to be the most
insensitive index among others in Indonesia Stock Exchange
(IDX). This sector is less likely to be influenced by the instability
of macroeconomic condition, especially inflation. Thus, investors
are having a high confidence in choosing the consumer goods
sector to their portfolio. This make the stock‟s return in consumer
goods sector is relatively stable regardless the influence of the
inflation rate.
3. Consumer goods sector, leads by the stable issuers in the IDX such
as Unilever Tbk., Indofood Tbk., and Gudang Garam Tbk., are
widely-known as stocks with relatively high and stable price. And
thus, inflation does not influence the performance of the stocks in
this sector.
The coefficient of SBI rate is -0.483347 which means that SBI rate has a
negative relationship with the stock‟s return on consumer goods. If the
65
change in SBI rate increases by 1 point, the stock‟s return on consumer
goods sector would decrease by -0.483347 points, given the remaining
variables are constant. The graph below presents the graph about the
movement of SBI rate as compared to the stock‟s return in consumer
goods during the period 2006-2010.
Figure 4.5 Graph of SBI Rate & Stock Return Movement (Cons.
Goods)
The negative relationship between the SBI rate and the stock‟s return is
matched with the result provided in the previous researches. This could be
explained by the following analyses:
1. SBI rate is determined by Bank Indonesia in accordance to the
inflation rate. BI would increase its SBI rate if the inflation rate is
predicted to be increased. As we stated in the theoretical
framework, if the SBI rate is increasing, investor would prefer to
invest their money in the bank, to gain better interest. This could
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
Stock's return
SBI rate
66
influence the investor preference in investing in capital market, and
make the price of stock in the capital market decreased.
2. As if for the consumer goods, the influence of the SBI rate is
relatively insignificant, since as previously mentioned this sector is
not sensitive to the change in macroeconomic factors. If there is a
decrease in the stock‟s return since the SBI rate is increasing, the
change is not too significant.
Table 4.8 Output Multiple Linear Regression Property and Real Estate
Sector
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/07/11 Time: 10:59
Sample: 2006M01 2010M12
Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.008209 0.011062 0.742136 0.4611
X1 -1.065215 0.312405 -3.409723 0.0012
X2 -0.000461 0.002077 -0.221818 0.8253
X3 -0.898840 0.309064 -2.908261 0.0052
R-squared 0.369993 Mean dependent var 0.019215
Adjusted R-squared 0.336243 S.D. dependent var 0.099661
S.E. of regression 0.081195 Akaike info criterion -2.119578
Sum squared resid 0.369190 Schwarz criterion -1.979955
Log likelihood 67.58735 F-statistic 10.96265
Durbin-Watson stat 1.908693 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000009
Where:
67
X1 = Exchange Rate
X2 = Inflation Rate
X3 = SBI Rate
From the Table 4.7 above, we can see that at the 95% confidence level (α = 0.05),
exchange rate and SBI rate partially has negative effect to the stock‟s return on
property and real estate sector. The probability value of the T-statistic is way
below the significance value (0.05) and thus makes us reject the Null Hypothesis
and conclude that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate and SBI
rate to the stock return on consumer goods. Inflation does not influence the return
of stock on consumer goods sector as it represented on the probability value of its
T-statistic, which is beyond α = 0.05. The interpretation of the intercept
coefficient and the independent variable is as follows:
The intercept coefficient of the output is 0.008209. This means if there is
no change in the rate of the independent variable (exchange rate, inflation,
and SBI rate), the stock‟s return on property and real estate would increase
by 0.008209point, based on the output.
The coefficient of exchange rate is -1.065215, which means that exchange
rate has a negative relationship with the stock‟s return on property and real
estate sector. If the change in exchange rate increases 1 point, the stock‟s
return on property and real estate sector would decrease by -1.065215
points, given the remaining variables are constant. The graph below
presents the graph about the movement of exchange rate as compared to
the stock‟s return in property and real estate during the period 2006-2010.
68
Figure 4.6 Graph of Exchange Rate & Stock Return Movement (Prop
& Est)
The negative relationship between the exchange rate and the stock‟s return
is matched with the result provided in the previous researches. This could
be explained by the following analyses:
1. The movement of Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar affected the
stock price especially for the perspective of foreign investor. The
possession of foreign stocks in IDX is recorded to be IDR 129.8
billion as for March 2010. The depreciation of Rupiah will attract
foreign investor to invest more money in the possession of stocks
in IDX. This will make the price of stock in IDX tend to be
corrected. The more flow of capital coming to the country, the
more beneficial it is for the exchange rate movement. Rupiah will
appreciate as many investor injected their money in the domestic
investment and need more Rupiah to do so.
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
Stock's Return
Exchange Rate
69
2. When Rupiah depreciates to US Dollar, theoretically, the price of
the stocks will decrease too. The exchange rate influences the
investor power to make an investment. The depreciation of Rupiah
to US Dollar generally will increase the price of daily needs and
thus make the investor‟s ability to make investment weakened.
3. As for the Company‟s perspective, the depreciation of Rupiah will
make company, especially MNCs who have to pay their debt in
other currencies, must spend more Rupiah to pay their debt. This
will make their performance decreasing and lead to the drop of
their stock price, and eventually, returns gained by their
shareholders.
The coefficient of inflation rate is -0.000461 which means that inflation
has a positive relationship to the stock‟s return. If there is a change in
inflation by 1 point, the stock‟s return on consumer goods sector would
decrease by -0.000461 points, given the remaining variables are constant.
The output of the research shows that inflation does not influence the
stock‟s return significantly. Figure below present the graph about the
movement of inflation rate as compared to the stock‟s return in property
and real estate sector during the period 2006-2010.
70
Figure 4.7 Graph of Inflation Rate & Stock Return Movement (Prop
& Est)
This result is somewhat contradicted to the result of the previous research
due to the following analyses:
1. Inflation is mainly caused by two reasons: the increase of the
demand by the customer, while the supply provided is stable, or
the raise of overall cost of production. In 2008, The booming of the
property and real estate sector are achieving its peak. This
condition happens during the period of 2006-2010. This also
become one of the consideration of the writer in choosing the
period of study. Major player in this sector, such as PT. Alam
Sutera Tbk., PT. Summareccon Agung start their Initial Public
Offering (IPO) in the mid of 2008. This marked as a huge step in
the property and real estate sector. The positive coefficiet of this
variable indicates that there is a increase in the demand of property
and real estate especially in the 2006-2010 period. Thus, make the
price of the stocks in this sector increasing as well.
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
Stock's Return
Exchange Rate
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2. The result provides that inflation is not significantly influence the
return of the stock in property and real estate sector. As we know
that, the world is being hit by the global financial crisis in 20007.
The crisisi is mostly caused by the mortgage crisis in USA, which
is spreading to all over he world, especially in the world major
leading economies. This condition is supposed to be affect the
share price. However, the result provide the contradictory. The
writer suspect this symptom is happen because Indonesia, as a big
economy is relatively stable towards the economic imbalances in
the world major economies such as USA and Japan. Indonesia had
learned from the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, so that the central
banks, government and related institution had formulated the better
monetary tools and instrument to prevent the collapse of financeial
market. And thus, altough during the period of 20006-2010
inflation is relatively high, this condition does nt bring significant
influence to the performance of the company in stock market.
The coefficient of SBI rate is -0.898840 which means that SBI rate has a
negative relationship with the stock‟s return on property and real estate. If
the change in SBI rate increases by 1 point, the stock‟s return on property
and real estate sector would decrease by -0.898840 points, given the
remaining variables are constant. The graph below presents the graph
about the movement of SBI rate as compared to the stock‟s return in
property and real estate sector during the period 2006-2010.
72
Figure 4.8 Graph of SBI Rate & Stock Return Movement (Prop &
Est)
The negative relationship between the SBI rate and the stock‟s return is
matched with the result provided in the previous researches. The result of
this research is matched with the theory proposed by Keynes regarding the
relationship between interest rate and the stock return. The raise of interest
rate will attract the investor to invest their money in the form of deposit
rather that in the capital market. And this will make the price of the stocks
decreases. On the other hand, the result of this research is also matched
with the theory proposed by Fisher about the relationship between interest
rate ad stock return to the IS and LM curve. This condition is also relate to
the mortgage system. When the interest rate increase, consumer needs to
pay higher for the purchase of property with the mortgage system and this
will make the demand of the property decaresing and eventually make the
share price decrease as well.
2. F Test
The function of F test is to see and understand the influence of both
independent variables toward dependent variables. On table 4.7 we can see that the
probability of F-statistic in the property and real estate sector is 0.000263, which is
-0,5
0
0,5
1
Stock Return
SBI
73
less that its sig. value (α = 0.05), and thus we reject the Null Hypothesis which
means that the independent variables (the change in exchange rate, inflation rate,
and SBI rate) have a significant influence together against the dependent variables
(stock‟s return). In the mean time, the writer also found that the probability of F-
statistic in the consumer goods sector is 0.000009, as it stated in the table 4.8. This
means that we can reject the Null Hypothesis as the probability F-statistic is less
than its significant value. Thus, we conclude that the independent variables (the
change in exchange rate, inflation rate, and SBI rate) have a significant influence
together against the dependent variables (stock‟s return) in the property and real
estate sector.
Based on the coefficient value, we can conclude that exchange rate is the most
influential independent variable towards the stock‟s return in both consumer
goods and property and real estate sector.
3. R-Squared (R2)
R-Squared describe how big the influence of the independent variables
together against the dependent variable. On table 4.7, we can see that the obtained
R-squared 0.286679. This means that the independent variables which consist of
the change in exchange rate, inflation rate and SBI rate could explain 28.6679 %
of the stock‟s return in property and real estate sector, while the remaining are
explained by others variables. While on table 4.8, we can see that the obtained R-
squared is 0.369993. This means that the independent variables which consist of
the change in exchange rate, inflation rate and SBI rate could explain 36.9993 %
74
of the stock‟s return in property and real estate sector, while the remaining are
explained by others variables.
4. Adjusted R-Squared
The adjusted R-squared explain how far the independent variables could
explain the variance of the dependent variable. The more close it to 1, the more
better the ability of the independent variable to explain its dependent. The value of
adjusted R-squared in the consumer goods sector is 0.248466, which describes
that 24.846 % of the variance in dependent variables could be explained by the
independent variables. . The value of adjusted R-squared in the property and real
estate sector is 0.336243, which describes that 33.6243 % of the variance in
dependent variables could be explained by the independent variables. The value of
adjusted R-squared in property and real estate sector is bigger than in consumer
goods sector thus concludes that the independent variables are having more
influence towards the property and real estate sector rather than consumer goods
sector. This proves the theory that has been previously mentioned in Chapter 2.
G. The Comparison between Macroeconomic Factors’ Influences Towards
The Stock’s Return on Consumer Goods and Property and Real Estate
Sector
Coefficient
Regression
Consumer Goods Sector Property and Real Estate
Sector
Exchange Rate -0.693450 -1.065215
Inflation Rate 3.36E-05 -0.000461
75
SBI Rate -0.483347 -0.898840
Table 4.9 Comparison of Coefficient Regression between Consumer Goods
and Property and Real Estate Sector
Based on the above table, the writer concludes that, the change in SBI rate
influences the property and real estate sector more than consumer goods. As a
cyclical factor, this sector is more sensitive to the change in interest rate. When
inflation occurred, and the price of overall goods and services increase, consumer
would prefer to buy the primary goods rather than secondary. Therefore, the
consumer goods sector is more resistant to the change in inflation rate rather than
property and real estate sector.
The change in exchange rate also influences the property and real estate more than
the consumer goods sector. From the three variables above, the property and real
estate sector seems to be influenced more by the fluctuation of macroeconomic
variables, proven by the result of the statistical test.
76
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS
A. Conclusion
This research, which is conducted using the monthly basis data of stock‟s return
on consumer goods and property and real estate sector in 2006-2010 period and
using the multiple linear regression model in statistical software Eviews 5,
provide conclusions as follows:
1. Firstly, based on the result in the regression, at the 0.05 significance level,
the exchange rate independent variable significantly has a negative
influence to the stock‟s return on both sector; consumer goods and
property and real estate sector. Based on the result in the regression, at the
0.05 significance level, the inflation rate independent variable significantly
has no influence to the stock‟s return in both sectors. Based on the result in
the regression, at the 0.05 significance level, the interest rate independent
variable significantly has a negative influence to the stock‟s return in both
sectors
2. The independent variables; exchange rate, inflation rate, and the interest
rate could influence the stock‟s return on the property and real estate
sector by 33.6243 % and the consumer goods sector by 24.8466 % at the
0.05 significance level.
77
B. Implication of Study
1. For the Investor
As for the investor, this researcher is expected to add information for the investor
as their considerations when choosing investment, especially in the capital market.
Investors must aware of the macroeconomic conditions in a country which could
influence the performance of the stocks before deciding to choose the investment
instrument in order to minimize risks. When a country‟s economic condition seem
to be unstable, investors must be aware of their choice of investment especially in
the capital market.
2. For the Business Player
The business player must carefully examined the real macroeconomic condition
before they decided to do their Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the capital market.
Business player must be able to forecast the macroeconomic condition which will
effect the performance of the stock price of their company. When economic is
doing good, the stock price will get the positive influence and vice versa.
3. For the Researcher
As for the researcher, this research is expected to add literatures study in these
topics. However, the writer suggest the future researcher to complete this research
by using more sectors as sample to get the better model of how those
macroeconomic variables influence the capital market as a whole.
78
C. Limitation
The writer realizes that there are still many limitation of this study. This
research is not using the individual samples of a company, and so the results of
this research describe a general condition of a sector, and not focusing on the
companies on that sector specifically. This research only highlights the
macroeconomic factors that influence the return, and not focusing on the micro
factors of company individually.
This research is also only using 2 sectors, as a comparison of one to each other. If
this research use more sectors, perhaps this research could provide a better
description of the influence of macroeconomic factors (exchange rate, inflation
rate, and SBI rate) to the performance of the stock in Indonesian capital market.
At the end, the writer wishes that the lack of this research could be improved by
another researcher in the future.
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