Analysis of the 2011 General Election in Montgomery County- Commissioners Race

Analysis of the 2011 General Election in Montgomery County-

Commissioner’s Race

Within days of the final results of the general election, a lot of people threw out their

analysis of the outcome. I wanted to wait, however, until the County released a lot of the voter

information in order to get a more detailed analysis of what occurred. With the majority of that

information in, at least what has been publicly released, I'm presenting a detailed breakdown of

what happened in Montgomery County on November 8th, 2011, but from the basis of the

Commissioner's race only. The reason for this is because as I broke down the County row office

results, the same trend appeared as the one that appeared with the Commissioner's race.

Key things to remember as this analysis goes on are that the final registered voter turnout

for the entire county was 32.38%, and any township with a registration turn-out outside the

margin of error of + or – 3% in either direction count as an anomaly; and that this race featured

three candidates who had never run on the County level before (Jenny Brown, Leslie Richards, &

Josh Shapiro) and one who has (Bruce Castor), making regression analysis ill-fitting in

comparison to the last Commissioner’s race in 2007. None of the four candidates had run against

each other before on any level, also hindering regression analysis. The GOP in Montgomery

County was also at a registration disadvantage and running a controversial sitting Commissioner

in Bruce Castor, and a minority Commissioner from Lower Merion in Jenny Brown, who had

never won a contested election in her Ward before. The Democratic Party was running a popular

State Representative in Josh Shapiro, and former chair of the Board of Supervisors in

Whitemarsh in Leslie Richards. These are points this paper will explore later on in the analysis.

In the breakdown of each township and borough, the current voter registration numbers

will be presented before the final vote tally. The main parties to focus on are Democrat,

Republican, Independent, No Affiliation, and Non Partisan; however all registered party numbers

will be represented. Focusing on these 5 areas of voter registration is key to understanding the

narrative of how the election played out in each and every township and borough, and to

determine where any anomalies will occur in how both tickets played to their respective voter

base and extrapolation of voter turn-out. The percentage of registered voters that voted will also

be presented in that same category. Analysis of anomaly areas only will be presented after the

vote count numbers are presented.

First, let's look at the areas where the Republican Commissioner candidates Bruce Castor

and Jenny Brown placed 1st and 2nd on the ballot (also remember that 3 seats were up for

election, but this analysis will focus on the top of the ticket only):

Bryn Athyn Voter Registration #’s*

Republican- 481

Democrats- 244

Independent- 19

.o Affiliation- 62

.on-Partisan- 74

Libertarian- 16

Total- 896

Turn-Out- 30.5%

Collegeville

Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 1291

Democrats- 1356

Independent- 39

.o Affiliation- 200

.on- Partisan- 348

Constitutional- 1

Green- 15

Liberal- 1

Total- 3268

Turn-Out- 26%

Douglass


Republican- 2970

Democrats- 2168

Independent- 76

.o Affiliation- 263

.on-Partisan- 518

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 3

Green- 10

Liberal- 3

Libertarian- 41

No Party- 1

Patriot- 2

Reform- 1

Total- 6057

Turn-Out- 24%

Franconia Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 5099

Democrats- 2286

Independent- 101

.o Affiliation- 321

.on-Partisan- 722

Constitutional- 2

Consumer- 1

Green- 5

Libertarian- 45

No Party- 7

Total- 8589

Turn-Out- 26%

Green Lane


Republican- 133

Democrats- 104

Independent- 3

.o Affiliation- 16

.on- Partisan- 32

Green- 3

Libertarian- 6

Total- 297

Turn-Out- 30%

Hatboro


Republican- 1965

Democrats- 2149

Independent- 70

.o Affiliation- 244

.on- Partisan- 366

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 1

Green- 15

Libertarian- 37

No Party- 3

Patriot- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 4853

Turn-Out- 31%

Hatfield Township


Republican- 4503

Democrats- 4459

Independent- 123

.o Affiliation- 614

.on-Partisan- 977

Communist- 1

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 3

Green- 23

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 63

No Party- 8

Patriot- 2

Reform- 1

Total- 10780

Turn-Out- 29%

Horsham


Republican- 7823

Democrats- 6792

Independent- 162

.o Affiliation- 824

.on-Partisan- 1342

American Independent- 2

Communist- 1

Conservative- 2

Constitution- 2

Constitutional- 4

Green- 25

Libertarian- 84

No Party- 17

Reform- 1

Socialist- 2

Total- 17083

Turn-Out- 28%

Limerick


Republican- 5640

Democrats- 4265

Independent- 146

.o Affiliation- 558

.on-Partisan- 1089

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 3

Green- 21

Liberal- 2

Libertarian- 84

No Party- 6

Reform- 3

Total- 11819

Turn-Out- 23%

Lower Fredrick


Republican- 1468

Democrats- 1071

Independent- 46

.o Affiliation- 130

.on-Partisan- 307

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 1

Green- 12

Libertarian- 25

No Party- 1

Patriot- 1

Total- 3063

Turn-Out- 24%

Lower Pottsgrove


Republican- 3287

Democrats- 3046

Independent- 84

.o Affiliation- 314

.on-Partisan- 663

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 4

Green- 13

Liberal- 2

Libertarian- 54

No Party- 2

Reform- 1

Socialist- 2

Total- 7474

Turn-Out- 22.5%

Lower Providence


Republican- 7156

Democrats- 5810

Independent- 174

.o Affiliation- 752

.on-Partisan- 1284

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 4

Consumer- 1

Freedom- 1

Green- 24

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 80

No Party- 6

None- 1

Patriot- 1

Reform- 2

Socialist- 1

Total- 15299

Turn-Out- 33%

Lower Salford


Republican- 5037

Democrats- 3239

Independent- 130

.o Affiliation- 451

.on-Partisan- 944

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 2

Freedom- 1

Green- 16

Libertarian- 52

No Party- 5

Socialist- 1

Total- 9880

Turn-Out- 25%

Marlborough


Republican- 1019

Democrats- 734

Independent- 29

.o Affiliation- 66

.on-Partisan- 192

Green- 6

Libertarian- 15

No Party- 2

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Total- 2065

Turn-Out- 35%

.ew Hanover


Republican- 3182

Democrats- 2242

Independent- 91

.o Affiliation- 271

.on-Partisan- 598

Constitution- 2

Constitutional- 2

Green- 9

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 55

No Party- 4

Other- 1

Patriot- 2

Tea Party- 1

Total- 6460

Turn-Out- 24%

Pennsburg


Republican- 730

Democrats- 749

Independent- 29

.o Affiliation- 118

.on-Partisan- 183

Atheist- 1

Bi-Partisan- 1

Green- 6

Libertarian- 22

No Party- 1

Total- 1840

Turn-Out- 17%

Perkiomen Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 2425

Democrats- 2063

Independent- 73

.o Affiliation- 272

.on-Partisan- 559

Constitutional- 3

Green- 11

Libertarian- 45

Moderate- 1

Patriot- 1

Total- 5453

Turn-Out- 22%

Salford


Republican- 1016

Democrats- 432

Independent- 20

.o Affiliation- 59

.on-Partisan- 156

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 1

Libertarian- 6

No Party- 2

Reform- 1

Total- 1696

Turn-Out- 38%

Schwenksville Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 355

Democrats- 271

Independent- 12

.o Affiliation- 48

.on-Partisan- 80

Constitutional- 1

Green- 3

Libertarian- 10

No Party- 1

Total- 781

Turn-Out- 22%

Skippack


Republican- 3488

Democrats- 2300

Independent- 81

.o Affiliation- 302

.on-Partisan- 663

Constitutional- 5

Green- 7

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 43

No Party- 4

None- 1

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Total- 6897

Turn-Out- 28%

Souderton


Republican- 1817

Democrats- 1330

Independent- 54

.o Affiliation- 238

.on-Partisan- 372

American- 1

Constitutional- 4

Green- 14

Libertarian- 36

No Party- 6

Total- 3872

Turn-Out- 20%

Telford


Republican- 695

Democrats- 528

Independent- 21

.o Affiliation- 91

.on-Partisan- 139

Communist- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 3

Libertarian- 14

Reform- 1

Total- 1495

Turn-Out- 23.2%

Towamencin Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 5907

Democrats- 4456

Independent- 158

.o Affiliation- 511

.on-Partisan- 1098

Bi-Partisan- 1

Constitutional- 3

Green- 16

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 62

No Party- 4

Patriot- 1

Whig- 1

Total- 12219

Turn-Out- 31%

Trappe Boro


Republican- 1245

Democrats- 831

Independent- 24

.o Affiliation- 121

.on-Partisan- 228

Green- 4

Libertarian- 17

Reform- 2

Total- 2472

Turn-Out- 30%

Upper Fredrick


Republican- 1073

Democrats- 751

Independent- 26

.o Affiliation- 106

.on-Partisan- 212

Constitutional- 2

Green- 2

Libertarian- 22

No Party- 4

Reform- 1

Total- 2199

Turn-Out- 23%

Upper Hanover


Republican- 2050

Democrats- 1357

Independent- 62

.o Affiliation- 153

.on-Partisan- 335

Constitution- 2

Constitutional- 4

Green- 5

Libertarian- 29

No Party- 5

Patriot- 1

Total- 4003

Turn-Out- 29%

Upper Pottsgrove


Republican- 1407

Democrats- 1324

Independent- 45

.o Affiliation- 165

.on-Partisan- 331

Constitutional- 1

Green- 12

Libertarian- 30

No Party- 3

Other- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 3320

Turn-Out- 25%

Upper Providence


Republican- 5866

Democrats- 4697

Independent- 174

.o Affiliation- 613

.on-Partisan- 1304

American- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 6

Green- 17

Libertarian- 85

No Party- 4

None- 3

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Unknown- 1

Total- 12774

Turn-Out- 24%

Upper Salford Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 1278

Democrats- 570

Independent- 22

.o Affiliation- 83

.on-Partisan- 189

Green- 4

Libertarian- 14

Patriot- 1

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Total- 2163

Turn-Out- 30.6%

West Pottsgrove Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 684

Democrats- 1033

Independent- 38

.o Affiliation- 122

.on-Partisan- 200

Constitutional- 1

Green- 8

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 23

No Party- 4

Patriot- 1

Total- 2115

Turn-Out- 23%

Worcester


Republican- 3685

Democrats- 1976

Independent- 70

.o Affiliation- 278

.on-Partisan- 540

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 9

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 35

No Party- 1

Total- 6599

Turn-Out- 36%

Now, for those who followed the results you will notice that there are some key areas

where the Brown-Castor ticket placed first and second that are missing. That will be explored as

we move on in this analysis. One of the interesting parts about this list is that Brown-Castor

carried Collegeville, Hatboro, Pennsburg, and West Pottsgrove, which based on the voter

registration numbers from October 22nd, 2011, are Democratic townships. Despite the rest of the

townships being Republican townships and districts, there were some noticeable anomalies in

voter turn-out and total. The list of these anomalies is as follows:

Collegeville- 26%

With Collegeville being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to

explain this anomaly is to see how each party ticket carried their total registered voters. For the

Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1291 registered Republicans in Collegeville. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 37.6% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 1356

registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 27.7% of these voters. In this area, the

Democratic ticket underperformed in both voter retention and vote total, and thus Castor and

Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out. In-fact, the Brown-Castor ticket over-performed in a Democratic district when it

came to voter retention and vote total.

Douglass- 24%

With Douglass being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 2970 registered Republicans in Douglass. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 32.7% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 2168 registered

Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 21.6% of these voters. In this area, the

Democratic ticket performed as expected, and thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats,

despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out. However, the

Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a Republican district when it came to vote total.

Franconia- 26%

With Franconia being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5099 registered Republicans in Franconia. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 32% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 2286 registered


Democratic ticket performed as expected in both voter retention and vote total, and thus Castor

and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a strong Republican

district when it came to voter retention and vote total.

Horsham- 28%

With Horsham being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 7823 registered Republicans in Horsham. On Election Day, the



Democratic ticket underperformed in voter retention, but over-performed in vote total. Thus

Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the

County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a worst fashion in

a strong Republican district when it came to voter retention and vote total.

Limerick- 23%

With Limerick being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5640 registered Republicans in Limerick. On Election Day, the



Democratic ticket underperformed in voter retention, but over-performed in vote total. Thus


County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a similar fashion as

the Democratic ticket in a strong Republican district when it came to voter retention and under-

performed in vote total.

Lower Fredrick- 24%

With Lower Fredrick being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt

to explain this anomaly is to see how each party ticket carried their total registered voters. For

the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1468 registered Republicans in Lower Fredrick. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 30% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 1071


Democratic ticket underperformed, and thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the

reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor

ticket under-performed in a worst fashion in a strong Republican district when it came to vote

total.

Lower Pottsgrove- 22.5%

With Lower Pottsgrove being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to

attempt to explain this anomaly is to see how each party ticket carried their total registered

voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3287 registered Republicans in Lower

Pottsgrove. On Election Day, the ticket carried 30.5% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards

ticket, there were 3046 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 22% of these

voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket underperformed in voter retention and in vote total.

Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par

with the County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a

Republican district when it came to vote total.

Lower Salford- 25%

With Lower Salford being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5037 registered Republicans in Lower Salford. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 31.2% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 3239


Democratic ticket performed as expected in voter retention and in vote total. Thus Castor and

Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a strong Republican


.ew Hanover- 24%

With New Hanover being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3182 registered Republicans in New Hanover. On Election



Democratic ticket underperformed in voter retention and in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown

took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-

out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a strong Republican district when it

came to voter retention and vote total.

Pennsburg- 17%

With Pennsburg being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 730 registered Republicans in Pennsburg. On Election Day, the


Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 20% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic

ticket underperformed slightly in voter retention and in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown took

the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

However, the Brown-Castor ticket performed in a similar fashion as the Democratic ticket in a

Democratic district, when it came to voter retention and vote total.

Perkiomen- 22%

With Perkiomen being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 2425 registered Republicans in Perkiomen. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 28.4% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 2063




out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a Republican district when it came to

voter retention and vote total.

Salford- 38%

With Salford being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1016 registered Republicans in Salford. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 46.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket over-performed in voter retention

and vote total. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 432 registered Democrats. On

Election Day, the ticket carried 40.2% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket actually

over-performed in voter retention, but not in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2

seats, despite the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Schwenksville- 22%

With Schwenksville being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 355 registered Republicans in Schwenksville. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 29.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket slightly under-performed

in voter retention, but performed highly enough in voter total. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket,

there were 271 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 25.4% of these voters.

In this area, the Democratic ticket slightly underperformed in voter retention and in vote total.


with the County level turn-out.

Skippack- 28%

With Skippack being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3488 registered Republicans in Skippack. On Election Day, the



Democratic ticket over-performed in voter retention, but under-performed in vote total. Thus


County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a Republican

district when it came to vote total.

Souderton- 20%

With Souderton being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1817 registered Republicans in Souderton. On Election Day, the






voter retention and vote total.

Telford- 23.2%

With Telford being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 695 registered Republicans in Telford. On Election Day, the






vote total.

Upper Fredrick- 23%

With Upper Fredrick being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1073 registered Republicans in Upper Fredrick. On Election



Democratic ticket slightly underperformed in voter retention and largely in vote total. Thus


County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in a Republican


Upper Pottsgrove- 25%

With Upper Pottsgrove being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1407 registered Republicans in Upper

Pottsgrove. On Election Day, the ticket carried 36% of these voters. For the Shapiro-Richards

ticket, there were 1324 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 24.8% of these

voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket underperformed in voter retention and in vote total.


with the County level turn-out. However, the Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in a

Republican district when it came to voter retention and vote total.

Upper Providence- 24%

With Upper Providence being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5866 registered Republicans in Upper

Providence. On Election Day, the ticket carried 30.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket

performed as expected in voter retention, but under-performed in vote total in a strong

Republican district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 4697 registered Democrats. On

Election Day, the ticket carried 27% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket

performed better than expected in voter retention and in vote total, but not enough to eclipse the

Brown-Castor ticket. Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out

when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

West Pottsgrove- 23%

With West Pottsgrove being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 684 registered Republicans in West Pottsgrove.

On Election Day, the ticket carried 43.2% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed

better than expected in voter retention, and in vote total in a Democratic district. For the Shapiro-

Richards ticket, there were 1033 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried

18.6% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention and

in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when

placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Worcester- 36%

With Worcester being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3685 registered Republicans in Worcester. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 41.3% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in voter

retention, and in vote total in a strong Republican district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there

were 1976 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 42.6% of these voters. In

this area, the Democratic ticket over-performed in voter retention, but under-performed in vote

total. Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats, despite the increased turn-out when placed on-

par with the County level turn-out.

As evidenced in the turn-out anomaly’s, in some key areas the Brown-Castor ticket had

trouble retaining both Republican voters and key vote totals. If one were to extrapolate this data,

it shows a weakness in the ticket from top to bottom in-terms of electability with moderate

Republicans and Independent voters. It also shows a weakness in campaign performance, when

the Democratic ticket was able to maintain suitable vote totals to be competitive in key

Republican districts.

The second place to look at is where the Democratic Commissioner candidates Josh

Shapiro and Leslie Richards placed 1st and 2nd. They are as follows:

Abington Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 14012

Democrats- 20975

Independent- 365

.o Affiliation- 1611

.on-Partisan- 2616

Adarian- 1

Conservative- 2

Constitution- 2

Constitutional- 12

Consumer- 2

Green- 71

Independence- 2

Liberal- 2

Libertarian- 201

No Party- 7

Patriot- 4

Reform- 3

Socialist- 3

Socialist Party USA- 2

Working Families Party- 1

Total- 39894

Turn-Out- 39%

Ambler Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 1264

Democrats- 2172

Independent- 38

.o Affiliation 183

.on Partisan- 304

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 7

Libertarian- 28

No Party- 3

Reform- 1

Total- 4003

Turn-Out %- 30%

Cheltenham


Republican- 4923

Democrats- 17929

Independent- 185


.on-Partisan- 1570

American- 1

Communist- 2

Constitutional- 4

Consumer- 1

Green- 48

Independence- 1

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 87

Modern Whig- 1

No Party- 2

Other- 2

Patriot- 1

Socialist- 1

Unknown- 2

Total- 25835

Turn-Out- 37%

Conshohocken


Republican- 1984

Democrats- 2860

Independent- 77

.o Affiliation- 410

.on- Partisan- 439

Constitutional- 1

Green- 16

Libertarian- 31

No Party- 5

None- 2

Other- 2

Total- 5827

Turn-Out- 26%

Jenkintown


Republican- 866

Democrats- 2101

Independent- 38

.o Affiliation- 144

.on- Partisan- 215

Green- 13

No Party- 5

Socialist- 1

Total- 3403

Turn-Out- 38%

Lansdale Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 3290

Democrats- 4603

Independent- 135

.o Affiliation- 518

.on- Partisan- 868

Adarian- 1

Communist- 1

Democratic Socialist- 1

Green- 29

Libertarian- 85

No Party- 4

Reform- 2

Socialist- 1

Total- 9542

Turn-Out- 29%

Lower Merion Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 13064

Democrats- 26151

Independent- 436


.on-Partisan- 3295

Anarchist- 1

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 7

Consumer- 1

Green- 84

Independence- 1

Independent Democrat- 4

Liberal- 2

Libertarian- 148

No Party- 7

None- 2

Patriot- 2

Political- 1

Reform- 5

Total- 45389

Turn-Out- 35%

.arbeth


Republican- 767

Democrats- 1983

Independent- 30

.o Affiliation- 200

.on- Partisan- 239

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 9

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 13

No Party- 1

Socialist- 1

Total- 3247

Turn- Out- 35.5%

.orristown


Republican- 3630

Democrats- 11432

Independent- 173

.o Affiliation- 840

.on-Partisan- 1153


Constitutional- 8

Consumer- 1

Green- 43

Independence- 1

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 82

No Party- 1

Patriot- 1

Reform- 4

Socialist- 1

Unknown- 1

Total- 17373

Turn-Out- 20%

Pottstown


Republican- 3782

Democrats- 7205

Independent- 153

.o Affiliation- 770

.on-Partisan- 1164


Communist- 1

Conservative- 2

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 9

Freedom- 1

Green- 36

Liberal- 4

Libertarian- 104

No Party- 8

Other- 1

Patriot- 3

Reform- 4

Tea Party- 1

Total- 13251

Turn-Out- 20%

Springfield


Republican- 5083

Democrats- 7858

Independent- 146

.o Affiliation- 540

.on-Partisan- 957

Constitutional- 2

Green- 20

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 55

No Party- 1

Total- 14663

Turn-Out- 41%

Upper Dublin


Republican- 7209

Democrats- 9198

Independent- 202

.o Affiliation- 718

.on-Partisan- 1512

Communist- 1

Constitutional- 5

Green- 34

Libertarian- 58

No Party- 5

Reform- 2

Socialist- 1

Unknown- 1

Total- 18944

Turn-Out- 41%

Again you will notice that areas where Shapiro-Richards carried are not included in this

list for the same reason as the Brown-Castor ticket. One of the most impressive parts about these

areas that the Shapiro-Richards ticket carried is how big they carried them. In Abington,

Cheltenham, and Lower Merion; Shapiro-Richards led the ticket by a 5,000 vote margin. Granted

these areas are highly Democratic areas, but the poor showing on the part of the Republicans is

frankly shocking. Lower Merion is especially telling about the electability of the Brown-Castor

ticket, as one would assume that having a candidate from that area (Jenny Brown) would bring

out hardcore supporters in droves. As with the Republicans, however, there were voter turn-out

anomalies. They are as follows:

Abington- 39%

With Abington being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 14012 registered Republicans in Abington. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 36% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in Republican

voter retention, but performed poorly in vote total in a strong Democratic district. For the

Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 20975 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket

carried 50% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket over-performed in voter retention,

and over-performed in vote total. Thus Shapiro-Richards took the top 2 seats, despite the

increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Cheltenham- 37%

With Cheltenham being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 4923 registered Republicans in Cheltenham. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 41.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in

Republican voter retention, but performed poorly in vote total in a strong Democratic district.

For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 17929 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 41.9% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket over-performed in voter

retention, and over-performed in vote total. Thus Shapiro-Richards took the top 2 seats, despite

the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Conshohocken- 26%

With Conshohocken being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1984 registered Republicans in Conshohocken. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 34.7% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in

Republican voter retention, but performed better than expected in vote total in a strong

Democratic district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 2860 registered Democrats. On

Election Day, the ticket carried 29.7% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket

performed as expected in voter retention, and performed strongly enough in vote total. Thus

Shapiro-Richards took the top 2 seats, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the

County level turn-out.

Jenkintown- 38%

With Jenkintown being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 866 registered Republicans in Jenkintown. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 40% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in Republican

voter retention, but performed poorly in vote total in a strong Democratic district. For the


carried 45.5% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket over-performed in voter

retention, and over-performed in vote total. Thus Shapiro-Richards took the top 2 seats, despite

the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

.orristown- 20%

With Norristown being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3630 registered Republicans in Norristown. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 27.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in Republican

voter retention, and performed poorly in vote total in a strong Democratic district. For the


carried 21.8% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter

retention, but performed strongly in vote total. Thus Shapiro-Richards took the top 2 seats,

despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Pottstown- 20%

With Pottstown being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 3782 registered Republicans in Pottstown. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 30.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed better than expected in

Republican voter retention, and in vote total in a strong Democratic district. For the Shapiro-

Richards ticket, there were 7205 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 21%

of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention and under-

performed in vote total. However, they eclipsed enough votes to take the top 2 seats, despite the

reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Springfield- 41%

With Springfield being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5083 registered Republicans in Springfield. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 47% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed better than expected

in Republican voter retention, and performed slightly better than expected in vote total in a

strong Democratic district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 7858 registered

Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 47% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic

ticket over-performed in voter retention, and over-performed in vote total. Thus Shapiro-

Richards took the top 2 seats, despite the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out.

Upper Dublin- 41%

With Upper Dublin being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 7209 registered Republicans in Upper Dublin. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 42% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in

Republican voter retention, and performed slightly better than expected in vote total in a strong


Election Day, the ticket carried 51% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket over-

performed in voter retention, and over-performed in vote total. Thus Shapiro-Richards took the

top 2 seats, despite the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

What these anomaly’s show, is that the Shapiro-Richards campaign performed better than

or as expected in key Democratic districts, with a large Democrat-to-Republican registration

ratio in favor of the Democrats. What it also shows, however, is the inability of the Republican

ticket to combat high Democratic turn-out by appealing to Independent, No Affiliation, and Non-

Partisan voters. The Brown-Castor ticket simply wasn’t appealing enough to cause moderate

Democrats or independent voters to cross over and vote for them.

Now let’s move into the real area of analysis that starts to tell the story of how this

election turns out- the townships and boroughs where both parties played close in each other’s

respective "back-yards." For the Brown-Castor ticket, they played close in the following areas:

.orth Wales Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 850

Democrats- 1107

Independent- 22

.o Affiliation- 106

.on-Partisan- 216

Communist- 2

Constitutional- 1

Green- 5

Libertarian- 19

No Party- 3

Patriot- 1

Total- 2332

Turn-Out- 32.5%

Upper Merion


Republican- 7350

Democrats- 8223

Independent- 233

.o Affiliation- 934

.on-Partisan- 1623

Conservative- 1

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 8

Green- 34

Independence- 1


Liberal- 3

Libertarian- 100

No Party- 9

None- 1

Other- 1

Patriot- 1

Reform- 2

Socialist- 1

Total- 18528

Turn-Out- 32.6%

Whitemarsh


Republican- 5209

Democrats- 6069

Independent- 127

.o Affiliation- 448

.on-Partisan- 934

Constitutional- 3

Green- 17

Independence- 1

Libertarian- 47

No Party- 5

Patriot-1

Total- 12861

Turn-Out- 39.5%

What is big about these areas, is that based on voter registration numbers, they are

Democratic townships. The fact that the Republican candidates could get within either a close

vote margin of Shapiro-Richards is a big factor that could have played large in an election where

percentage totals don't matter, but the vote totals do. If you lose big in a Democratic area by

5,000 votes, but close the gap in another by 100-500 in multiple areas; that vote differential can

help close the total vote tally. An example of this is the one anomaly that was shown, which was

in Whitemarsh-

Whitemarsh- 39.5%

With Whitemarsh being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 5209 registered Republicans in Whitemarsh. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 45.4% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as expected in

Republican voter retention, but performed better than expected in vote total in a strong


Election Day, the ticket carried 45% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket

performed as expected in voter retention, but under-performed in vote total. However, Shapiro-

Richards took the top 2 seats, despite this and the increased turn-out when placed on-par with the


This is one area where the Brown-Castor campaign had a strong showing in a Democratic

district that had high voter turn-out, and which also happened to be in Leslie Richards’s

backyard. The extrapolation of the data suggests that had the Brown-Castor campaign appealed

more strongly to Independents, No Affiliation, and Non-Partisan voters, they could have taken a

Democratic stronghold, and closed the total vote tally gap if the performance was copied in other

Democratic strongholds.

Let's next look at the areas where the Democratic candidates got close to the top 2 spots

on the ticket where the Republican ticket won:

Bridgeport Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 832

Democrats- 1211

Independent- 40

.o Affiliation- 149

.on Partisan- 205

Constitutional- 4

Consumer- 1

Green- 12

No Party- 2

Total- 2477

Turn-Out: 22%

East .orriton


Republican- 4002

Democrats- 4136

Independent- 114

.o Affiliation- 412

.on-Partisan- 729

Communist- 1

Constitutional- 3

Green- 12

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 42

No Party- 2

Patriot- 4

Tea Party Conservative- 1

Total- 9459

Turn-Out- 35%

Lower Moreland


Republican- 4285

Democrats- 3763

Independent- 67

.o Affiliation- 417

.on-Partisan- 542

Christian- 1

Constitutional- 1

Green- 19

Independence- 1


Liberal- 2

Libertarian- 41

Moderate-1

No Party- 7

Total- 9148

Turn-Out- 28%

Montgomery


Republican- 6937

Democrats- 6781

Independent- 183

.o Affiliation- 769

.on-Partisan- 1478

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 5

Green- 24

Independence- 1


Libertarian- 73

No Party- 17

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Unknown- 1

Total- 16273

Turn-Out- 25%

Red Hill Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 609

Democrats- 605

Independent- 19

.o Affiliation- 85

.on-Partisan- 145

Green- 2

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 15

No Party- 3

Reform- 1

Total- 1485

Turn-Out- 24%

Rockledge


Republican- 892

Democrats- 696

Independent- 21

.o Affiliation- 70

.on-Partisan- 97

Adarian- 1

Green- 4

Libertarian- 13

Total- 1794

Turn-Out- 32%

Royersford


Republican- 1047

Democrats- 1267

Independent- 26

.o Affiliation- 188

.on-Partisan- 276

Go Steelers- 1

Green- 4

Independence- 1

Libertarian- 26

No Party- 2

None- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 2840

Turn-Out- 20%

Upper Gwynedd


Republican- 4964

Democrats- 4362

Independent- 122

.o Affiliation- 487

.on-Partisan- 909

Adarian- 1

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 2

Green- 17

Libertarian- 59

Moderate- 2

No Party- 4

None- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 10933

Turn-Out- 33%

Upper Moreland


Republican- 7065

Democrats- 6987

Independent- 192

.o Affiliation- 721

.on-Partisan- 1175

Constitution- 1

Constitutional- 6

Freedom- 1

Green- 27

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 95

No Party- 14

Other- 2

Reform- 1

Socialist- 2

Total- 16290

Turn-Out- 28%

West Conshohocken Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 371

Democrats- 445

Independent- 19

.o Affiliation- 87

.on-Partisan- 101

Constitutional- 2

Green- 4

Libertarian- 9

No Party- 1

Undecided- 1

Total- 1040

Turn-Out- 24.5%

West .orriton


Republican- 4408

Democrats- 4766

Independent- 22

.o Affiliation- 83

.on-Partisan- 189

Green- 4

Libertarian- 14

Patriot- 1

Reform- 1

Socialist- 1

Total- 10737

Turn-Out- 30%

Whitpain


Republican- 6116

Democrats- 5841

Independent- 158

.o Affiliation- 540

.on-Partisan- 1073

Conservative- 1

Constitutional- 1

Green- 19

Libertarian- 64

No Party- 6

Patriot- 2

Reform- 1

Total- 13822

Turn-Out- 33.3%

Let's first look at the good news for the Republican candidates in these areas. Bridgeport,

East Norriton, Royersford, West Conshohocken, and West Norriton are Democratic areas based

on voter registration. To win those areas are big. However, Brown-Castor didn't win those areas

by enough. In these areas, anomaly’s appeared as well. They are as follows:

Bridgeport- 22%

With Bridgeport being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 832 registered Republicans in Bridgeport. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 34% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket over-performed in voter retention,

and in vote total in a Democratic district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were 1211


Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention, but still kept it close to the Brown-Castor

ticket in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats barely, despite the reduced turn-

out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Lower Moreland- 28%

With Lower Moreland being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 4285 registered Republicans in Lower Moreland.

On Election Day, the ticket carried 32.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket over-

performed in voter retention, but under-performed in vote total in a Republican district. For the


carried 31% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket performed better than expected in

voter retention, and still kept it close to the Brown-Castor ticket in vote total. Castor and Brown

took the top 2 seats barely, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out.

Montgomery- 25%

With Montgomery being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 6937 registered Republicans in Montgomery. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 31% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket over-performed in voter

retention, but under-performed in vote total in a Republican district. For the Shapiro-Richards

ticket, there were 6781 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 29% of these

voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket performed worse than expected in voter retention, and

still kept it close to the Brown-Castor ticket in vote total. Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats

barely, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Red Hill- 24%

With Red Hill being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 609 registered Republicans in Red Hill. On Election Day, the

ticket carried 29.4% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in voter

retention, and in vote total in a Republican district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were

605 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 28.7% of these voters. In this area,

the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention, and vote total. However, the top 2

spots were taken by the Brown-Castor ticket, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par

with the County level turn-out.

Royersford- 20%

With Royersford being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt to


Brown-Castor ticket, there were 1047 registered Republicans in Royersford. On Election Day,

the ticket carried 27.6% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in voter

retention, but over-performed in vote total in a Democratic district. For the Shapiro-Richards

ticket, there were 1267 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 21.4% of these

voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention and still kept it

close to the Brown-Castor ticket in vote total. Castor and Brown took the top 2 seats barely,

despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level turn-out.

Upper Moreland- 28%

With Upper Moreland being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 7065 registered Republicans in Upper Moreland.

On Election Day, the ticket carried 34.5% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket performed as

expected in voter retention, but under-performed in vote total in a Republican district. For the


carried 31% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket performed as expected in voter

retention, and still kept it close to the Brown-Castor ticket in vote total. Castor and Brown took

the top 2 seats barely, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County level

turn-out.

West Conshohocken- 24.5%

With West Conshohocken being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to


voters. For the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 371 registered Republicans in West

Conshohocken. On Election Day, the ticket carried 35.3% of these voters. The Brown-Castor

ticket over-performed in voter retention, and in vote total in a Democratic district. For the


carried 27.7% of these voters. In this area, the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter

retention, but still kept it close to the Brown-Castor ticket in vote total. Thus Castor and Brown

took the top 2 seats barely, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the County

level turn-out.

These anomalies show that in Republican and Democratic areas, the Democratic

candidates kept the vote tally close. Really close. Finally you need to add in the areas where the

top of the ticket were split.

East Greenville (Democratic in registration) Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 628

Democrats- 676

Independent- 27

.o Affiliation- 112

.on-Partisan- 127

Green- 4

Libertarian- 16

No Party- 5

Other- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 1597

Turn-Out- 19%

Hatfield Borough (Democratic in registration) Voter Registration #’s

Republican- 655

Democrats- 820

Independent- 24

.o Affiliation- 129

.on-Partisan- 172

Constitutional- 1

Green- 3

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 9

No Party- 3

Total- 1817

Turn- Out- 31%

Lower Gwynedd (Republican in registration)


Republican- 4153

Democrats- 3577

Independent- 100

.o Affiliation- 361

.on-Partisan- 698

Constitutional- 3

Green- 11

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 31

No Party- 2

Reform- 2

Total- 8939

Turn-Out- 34.4%

Plymouth (Democratic in registration)


Republican- 4515

Democrats- 5168

Independent- 130

.o Affiliation- 518

.on-Partisan- 822

Constitutional- 5

Consumer- 1

Green- 26

Independence- 1

Liberal- 1

Libertarian- 60

Moderate- 1

No Party- 4

Patriot- 1

Reform- 1

Total- 11254

Turn-Out- 33%

In one of the areas, anomalies occurred as well. They are as follows:

East Greenville- 19%

With East Greenville being outside the margin of error, the best area to explore to attempt


the Brown-Castor ticket, there were 628 registered Republicans in East Greenville. On Election

Day, the ticket carried 24% of these voters. The Brown-Castor ticket under-performed in voter

retention, and in vote total in a Democratic district. For the Shapiro-Richards ticket, there were

676 registered Democrats. On Election Day, the ticket carried 22.5% of these voters. In this area,

the Democratic ticket under-performed in voter retention, and vote total. However, the top 2

seats were split amongst the parties, despite the reduced turn-out when placed on-par with the


With all of these anomalies accounted for, a narrative clearly comes into play. Not only

did Republicans not turn out in droves, like was needed, but the Shapiro-Richards campaign

played to "keep it close" in traditional Republican strong-holds, and Democratic areas where

they knew the Republicans had a chance to split the ticket. It is no surprise the final vote count

looked like this:

Obviously, the question is- how did this occur, and can it occur again? From

extrapolating the data, it is clear that this occurred due to the candidates that were put up by the

GOP in Montgomery County. Teaming a controversial Commissioner in Bruce Castor with a

virtual unknown in Jenny Brown did not appeal to moderates or independents. With polarizing

candidates, the intentions then became to run a polarizing campaign. As the numbers suggest,

this is what the campaign did. There is little to suggest in the numbers that the Brown-Castor

campaign attempted to appeal to moderates or independents. When faced with a voter

registration disparity in favor of the Democratic Party, this strategy resulted in little to no head-

way in Democratic districts. In-fact, the Democrats showed a push to appeal to moderates and

independents, when the data is extrapolated, as the ticket was able to play close in key

Republican districts where Democratic registration was down in a large fashion or even down

slightly. From there, the Democratic candidates had an easy way to the Commissioner’s seat for

the first time in over 140 years in Montgomery County.

Now, can this occur again, and where does the GOP in Montgomery County go from

here? The first area is to shore-up Republican strong-holds where the Democrats played too

close. A couple of thousand votes here or there in those areas could have easily helped close the

gap in the 3 major Democratic areas where the Brown-Castor campaign lost by 5,000 votes or

more. The second area is to take the Democratic townships where Republicans won: West

Pottsgrove, East Norriton, West Norriton, Royersford, Collegeville, Hatboro, Pennsburg, & West

Conshohocken, and try to close the voter registration gap in favor of the GOP. That can be

accomplished by focusing on a third area, which is to go after No Affiliation, Non-Partisan, &

Independent voters. Let's look at the voter registration numbers:

Democratic- 245,600

Republican- 209,537

The voter registration gap is 36,063. By now many of the Republicans are panicking.

However, let's look at the No-Affiliation, Non-Partisan, and Independent voter registration

numbers:

.o Affiliation- 24,585

.on-Partisan- 42,535

Independent- 5,948

The total number of these voters is 73,068. That is a significant voter demographic that

has many differing viewpoints, but is ripe to be courted. Even if the Montgomery County GOP

doesn't go after those voters in registration attempts, they must go after those voters in general

elections. Every vote counts. If you assume you can pull just 50% (admittedly a lofty goal) of

those voters to the Republican totals, suddenly the voter totals look like this:

Democratic- 245,600

Republican- 246,071

There is your new Republican lead in the County. From there you can extrapolate where

the numbers would lie with a 25-30% voter turn-out, but it weighs better in Republican favor for

future races. The fourth and final key is to run qualified, experienced, and non-polarizing

candidates. Even with a voter registration disparity, the GOP in Montgomery County can take

back the Commissioner’s seat again. The numbers are there to suggest this; as long as efforts are

focused in both strong and weak Republican districts to shore up the numbers and voter support,

Democratic districts are forced to be competitive, and an election strategy that appeals to

moderates and independents is implemented. There must also be a clear focus on leadership from

the County Committee down to municipal leaders. From this race it is clear that a lack of focus

on the Republican side during the General, and a focused effort by the Democrats to play both to

win and keep it close was the reason for such a devastating sweep on almost all levels. If the

Montgomery County GOP can reform itself, keep a united front, and make drastic changes where

necessary, then a loss such as this will not occur again.

Analysis of the 2011 General Election in Montgomery County- Commissioners Race

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