Analysis of Social Impacts of Urban Ritual Events with ... #12/2_Bhandari.pdf · Literature review...

Analysis of Social Impacts of Urban Ritual Events with Reference to Building Disaster

Resilience: Case Studies of Nepal and Japan

ByRoshan Bhakta Bhandari

Graduate School of Engineering ,Kyoto University

Prof. Norio OkadaDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

Ass. Prof. Muneta YokomatsuDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

Hitoshi IkeoGraduate School of Engineering ,Kyoto University

Presentation outline

Background – RitualsCase study areasResearch objectivesLiterature SurveyResearch Questions / HypothesisQuestionnaire survey findingsConclusion

3

Background

Highlights the scope of rituals as a non-structural measureto reduce disaster risk

Addresses the problem of developing social capacity

Strengthen knowledge, skill, abilities and behavior of individuals, and improve social processes so that community organization can efficiently meet its goal to reduce disaster risk

Develop community resilience

4

Rituals ?

Durkheim (1915) relates rituals as sacred social functions, create feeling of social solidarity and maintain the social order

Turner (1979) relates rituals as more dynamic than static, create social transformation (social conflict) rather than maintaining social cohesion

Rituals influence human behavior

For this study the concept of rituals used is similar to Knottnerus (1997); dynamic events occurring in both secular and sacred context; and with profound significance in social life and behavior of people

5

Case Study Areas and Rituals

Lalitpur City, NepalMunicipality area – 15.4 sq.km; Constitute 22 wards ; Population density varies from 540 - 46 people/ hectare; Total population – 115,865 ; Prone to earthquake hazard – every 75 years ; Famous for ritual event “Machhendranath Rath Jatra”

N

Kathmandu Valley(Source: KVMP, 2001)Core area of Lalitpur (Source: KVMP, 2001)

Lalitpur City

Procession along different city open spaces

6

Machhendranath Rath Jatra, Lalitpur City

Dynamic environment / Lasts for months

Residents/volunteers participate( > 50,000 people)Regional participation

Social SignificancePromotes face to face interactions /communications

Many sub events –human injury, theft, crowd and chaos (Managed by indigenous community system Guthi)

Repeated annually

Began as water ritual / related to infrastructure management

Embedded in way of life / Part of socio-cultural life

Local beliefs:rituals related to disasters

7

Kishiwada City, Osaka, Japan (Source: Kishiwada City Office, 2009)

300 m 600 m

Danjiriroute

Natural hazard prone area – flood, typhoon, earthquake ; Total area - 72.24 sq.km; Population density –2760/ sq.km ;180 major community organization (Chonaikai); 81,880 households and total population –203,317; Famous for DanjiriMatsuri

8

Daikugata(carpenters)

Sewanin(Leader,45-55 yrs) Wakagasira

(experienced, 35-45 yrs)

Sourendan(Not experienced, <15 yrs)

Fukukaicho(elders)

Seinendan(Musicians, 15 – 25 yrs)

Chonaikai level hierarchies to conduct Danjiri Matsuri (origin 1703)Ritual and disaster : reminds of cholera outbreak in 1903 ;

renowned as “kenka matsuri ”, dangerous and bloodySocial significance : sense of commitment towards one’s Cho ;

broad participation

Danjiri Matsuri, Kishiwada City

9

Attention(Salience)

Symbolic elements that draws focus of attention or awareness

Repetitiveness

Degree to which actors engage in repetitive act , to perform RSPs (ritualized symbolic practices)

Interdependence(Homologousness)

Involvement of multiple actors, performing the assigned task

Resources

Human resources such as knowledge, skill of actors;Non-human resources such as equipments / tools

• Builds emotional intensity• Group Commitment /solidarity

Theoretical Perspective on Rituals - Structural Ritualization Theory(David J.Knottnerus, 1997) : Factors influencing actor’s commitment to group during ritual process

Ritual Process (Social Role)

Ritual Outcome (Social Impact)

10

Objectives

ResearchObjectives

Implication

Analyze ritual Outcome / Impact

Social capital and trust developed through rituals for communitydisaster resilience.

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Research Questions

What are the possible social impacts of rituals and how do they help to make communities resilient to disaster risks?

How can social capital development be analyzed in terms of impacts of rituals?

To what extent do ritual outcomes such as social capital and trust contributes to the development of disaster resilient communities?

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Literature review (Ritual Impacts)

Social Capital

Resources embedded in social networks and facilitate to solve collective action problems (Coleman, 1990;Putman, 1993)

Involves social norm, obligations/trust, relationships

Utilized in community disaster response (Dynes, 2005)

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Concept of Social Capital

Leader

Participation

Trust

Social Norm

Network

Bonding Social Capital

` Leader

Participation

Trust

Social Norm

Network


Academics NGO/CBOLocalAdministration

Neighborhood - A

Neighborhood - B

Bridging Social Capital


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Literature Review (Ritual Impacts) contd..Disaster Resilience

Ability of communities to cope with external stresses / disturbances as a result of socio-political or environmental change (Adger, 2000)

Measured by intention to get prepared for disasters (Paton, 2001)

Depends on how quickly community can switch to disaster mode from normal mode and vice versa

Rituals are conceptualized in this study as a medium to enhance community resilience

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Protective FactorsBuilt-in resilience

Risk FactorsHazards

Rituals / Social

Functions

Daily Problem Solving

Community Development

Civic Sense

CBDRM

Disaste

rResiliency

Process

Risk FactorsHazardsProtective Factors

Community in normal mode

Community in disaster mode

Resilient communities

Enhance

d Community

Capac

ity

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Study Hypothesis

Hypothesis 1Perceived gain from urban ritual events has significant relationship with the development of social capital in the communities at Kishiwada and Lalitpur

Hypothesis 2Social capital built through urban ritual events contributes to enhancing hazard awareness and self reliance of people that helps them to cope with disaster risks

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Findings

Kishiwada•485 responses received from 1400 questionnaire sheets distributed

• 83.3% female respondents and 16.7 % male respondents

Kathmandu • 236 responses collected

• 27% female respondents and 73 % male respondents

Age group of respondents

30-4934%50-59

26%

<204% 20-29

13%60-6917%

>706%

<2020-2930-4950-5960-69>70

Age group of respondents

<2 0 yrs0 .4%

20 -2 9 yrs2 .9 %

70 < yrs0 .4%60 -69 yrs

0 .8%

50 -59 yrs6 .2%

3 0-49 yrs89 .3 %

<20 yrs

20-29 yrs

30-49 yrs

50-59 yrs

60-69 yrs

70< yrs

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KishiwadaKathmandu

87.3

8.03.0 1.7

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

Every year Once in 2-3 yrs Rarely Not at all

% o

f Res

pond

ents

% of respondents

57.9

3.1

32.8

6.2

0.010.0

20.030.040.050.0

60.070.0

Everyyear

Once in 2-3 years

Rarely Not at all

% R

espo

nden

ts

% ofrespondents

Frequency of ritual participation

19Pearson Correlation Coefficients **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

Multiple Correlation Analysis (Ritual, Social Capital and Disaster Variables)Comparison of Kishiwada and Kathmandu

Perceived Gain

Perceived Loss

Frequency of Participation

Self Reliance



HazardAwareness Trust

Trust .280**

.284**-.193**

-.138**-.0120.083

.173**

0.06.168**

0.081.441**

.302**.240**

.1161.01.0

HazardAwareness

.147*

.063.048

-.140**-.012.136**

-.004-.125

.210**

.288**.254**

.240**1.01.0


.116.178**

.038

.019.035.152*

.042-.133*

.390**

.382**1.01.0


.104

.101-.059.01

.073

.021.033-.103

1.01.0

Self Reliance .044.095

.005-.078

-.085.019

1.01.0

Frequency of

Participation

.051

.078-.125*

.203**1.01.0

Perceived Loss

-.263**

-.0821.01.0

Perceived Gain

1.01.0

KishiwadaKathmandu

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KishiwadaIncrease in trust results in an increase in hazard awareness (HA) and self reliance Change in one standard deviation of the predictor variable (hazard awareness) will result in 28 percent change in the standard deviation of the target variable (self reliance)

*Significant at 0.05, ** Significant at 0.01

(x2 = 106.3, D.F. = 89, p = 0.101), RMSEA = 0.02, GFI = 0.951, NFI = 0.897

Structural Equation Modeling

KathmanduCasual relationship among variables limited to only Bonding Social Capital (BoSc), Bridging Social Capital (BrSc) and HABoSc and BrSc contribute to the development of HA

**Significant at 0.01

(x2 = 23.2, D.F. = 12, p = 0. 026), RMSEA = 0.06, GFI = 0.978, NFI = 0.93

Self Reliance

0.28* 1.46 **

Hazard Awareness

Trust

Perceived Gain

0.47**


0.86**

Disaster VariablesRitual & Social Capital Variables

- . 002

Hazard Awareness


0.361**


0.463**

Disaster Variable

Social Capital Variables

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JapanBoSc and perceived gain from rituals build trust which in turn is important for hazard awareness and self reliance.

NepalBonding and bridging capital contribute towards hazard awareness.

Perceived loss is negatively correlated with frequency of participation (FOP) in rituals

Perceived loss is positively correlated with FOP in rituals

Shows that attitude of people towards rituals is positive

People don’t seem to have positive attitude towards rituals

In SEM, BrSc not contributing to disaster variables. However, it can be helpful in terms of coping with disasters when wider/ regional support is required; rituals can be utilized for this purpose

BoSc is negatively correlated with Self Reliance ; indicates that higher the intra community networks, less self reliant people become i.e. people relying more on community than oneself to cope with disasters

Rituals help to develop social capital and enhance resilience

Rituals develop Social capital, but its contribution to resilience not significant

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Hypothesis 1- “Perceived gain from urban ritual events has significant relationship with the development of social capital in the communities at Kishiwada and Lalitpur” is supported.

Hypothesis 2 - “Social capital built through urban ritual events contributes to enhancing hazard awareness and self reliance of people that helps them to cope with disaster risks”

Kishiwada, Japan - supportedKathmandu, Nepal - partly supported (SC variables do contribute to enhance hazard awareness)

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Summary

Study carried out in ritual based communities of Japan and Nepal shows that rituals are significantly related to the development of social capital

In Japan, rituals are significantly correlated to the development of trust; trust enhances hazard awareness and self reliance

In Nepal, people are less self reliant and more dependent on community/government

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ConclusionExplains ritual outcomes namely; the development of emotional intensity & social integrity (social capital / trust), and its implications in enhancing disaster resilience

Synergetic effect of rituals in the development of social capital; activated social networks can give a momentum to disaster risk reduction efforts

Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) shows that perceived gain from rituals, bonding social capital and trust predict hazard awareness and self reliance in Japan

In Nepal, bonding and bridging social capital predict hazard awareness; people are less self reliant

Results indicate that changing level of resilience should set up different priorities depending on socio-cultural and economic context –future studies will highlight this aspect

25

Thank you very much [email protected]

[email protected]

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Policy ImplicationsRituals set an example of socially implementable practice

Key factors that help policy makers to understand how a socially viable action can be developed for disaster risk reduction:

Linking disaster risk reduction practices with local beliefs and livelihood strategies

Utilizing ritual based social organizations for disaster risk reduction

Further possibilities:

Utilize rituals as a risk communication tool

Promote disaster education through rituals

Town watching

Disaster drill / Community based disaster response strategies

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Outline of Questionnaire SurveyHazard Awareness

Do you often talk with your neighbors about disaster related matters? (1= not at all, 2= not often, 3= sometimes, 4= often, 5= very often)Have you ever taken a look at your cities hazard map? Would you evacuate when there is an evacuation warning?

Bonding Social CapitalWhat level of interaction do you have with your neighbors?How many people in the neighborhood do you interact with?How often do you greet or talk with your neighbors?How often do you meet with your relatives?How often do you participate in the following community activities or gatherings: youth clubs , neighborhood safety, local campaigns, local tradesman?

Bridging Social CapitalHow often do you participate in the following community activities or gatherings: sport events, NGO activities, religious / political functions?

Self RelianceWho do you think is responsible for making evacuation decisions? (1= self, 2= self or CBO, 3= CBO, 4= CBO or Government, 5= Government, 6= Others)Who do you think is responsible for handling supplies such as drinking water or food during disaster?Who do you think is responsible to contact and assist evacuations of people who can’t evacuate by themselves such as elderly people living alone?

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Perceived gain from ritualIt helps to understand the local culture ( highly agree , agree, neutral, disagree, highly disagree)Helps to build sense of communityHelps to get closer with people in communityBuild awareness about neighborhood features

Perceived loss from ritualWhat is the perceived loss (in terms of time, money, disturbance of daily routine, chaos, noise and environmental pollution) from the festivities? ( 5 = very high to 1= very low)

Frequency of participationHow often do you participate in Danjiri? (1= every year , 2= once in 2-3 years, 3= very rarely , 4= not at all)

TrustMost people in this neighborhood are willing to help if you need it ( Highly agree to highly disagree)I trust most people in my neighborhoodIn this neighborhood, one has to be alert or someone is likely to advantage of you

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Comparative findings from communities with and without rituals in Lalitpur, Nepal

Community with Rituals (mean rating)

Community without Rituals (mean rating)

Sense of Community 3.82 3.76

Community Participation

4.13 4.06

Social Support 4.23 4.28

Empowerment 3.37 3.69

Trust 3.21 3.37

Difference in sense of community, community participation, social support, empowerment and trust in two communities is statistically significant (alpha =0.05)

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Questionnaire Sample (Source: Douglas Paton, 2001)1. Sense of Community In regard to living in this community generally, please describe the extent to which each statement applies to you Strongly

agree Agree Neither

Agree nor disagree

Disagree Strongly disagree

I think my neighbourhood is a good place for me to live 5 4 3 2 1

People in this neighbourhood do not share the same values 5 4 3 2 1

My neighbours and I want the same things from the neighbourhood 5 4 3 2 1

I can recognize most of the people who live in my neighbourhood 5 4 3 2 1

I feel at home in this neighbourhood 5 4 3 2 1 Very few of my neighbours know me 5 4 3 2 1 I care about what my neighbours think of me 5 4 3 2 1 I have almost no influence over what this neighbourhood is like 5 4 3 2 1

If there is a problem in this neighbourhood people who live here can solve it 5 4 3 2 1

It is very important to me to live in this particular neighbourhood 5 4 3 2 1

People in this neighbourhood generally do not get along with each other 5 4 3 2 1

I expect to live in this neighbourhood for a long time 5 4 3 2 1

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Community Participation In regard to participating in life in this community, please describe how often you undertake each of the following. Often Sometimes Rarely Never I have worked with others on something to improve my neighbourhood 4 3 2 1

I participate in local activities or events (e.g., festivals, fetes, fairs) 4 3 2 1

I have contributed money, food or clothing to local causes, charities, or others in my community 4 3 2 1

I have attended a public meeting on a community issue 4 3 2 1

I have been involved in volunteer activities intended to benefit my community (e.g., fundraising, clean-up days, local groups, Scouts/Brownies).

4 3 2 1

Social Support In regard to your general feelings about living in this community, please describe the extent to which you agree or disagree with each statement. Strongly

agree Agree Neither

Agree nor disagree


If need be, I would trust my neighbours to watch my home when I am away 5 4 3 2 1

The friendships and associations I have with other people in my neighbourhood mean a lot to me

5 4 3 2 1

People in my neighbourhood lend things or exchange favours with one another 5 4 3 2 1

People in my neighbourhood are happy to help one another 5 4 3 2 1

My neighbours are willing to provide advice to me if I ask for it. 5 4 3 2 1

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Empowerment In regard to what happens in your community, in general, to what extent do you think that: Always A great

deal Sometimes Not very

much Not at all

Voting in local elections influences what happens in my community 5 4 3 2 1

Voting in local elections helps solve local problems 5 4 3 2 1

Community groups can get something done about local problems 5 4 3 2 1

I feel that I can influence what happens in my community 5 4 3 2 1

I feel that I see positive results from participating in community activities 5 4 3 2 1

I feel that I have an active part in keeping this community going 5 4 3 2 1

I care about how my community looks 5 4 3 2 1 I feel that what happens in this community can affect my life 5 4 3 2 1

I have strong opinions about the way things are done by elected representatives 5 4 3 2 1

I think that elected representatives seriously consider my opinions 5 4 3 2 1

I think that elected representatives try to influence what goes on in my community 5 4 3 2 1

Trust In regard to your general feelings about living in this community, please describe the extent to which you agree or disagree with each statement. Strongly

agree Agree Neither

Agree nor disagree


I trust my Local Government to respond to meet the needs of its residents 5 4 3 2 1

I trust the community leaders in my community 5 4 3 2 1

I trust the media (newspapers, TV, radio) to report fairly 5 4 3 2 1

I trust my Local Government to do what is right for the people they represent 5 4 3 2 1

I have confidence in the law to protect and maintain order in my community 5 4 3 2 1

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Structural Equation Modeling

Legend

= ksi

= eta

= phi

= gamma

= beta

= zeta

= delta

= epsilon

= manifest variable (exogenous construct)

= manifest variable (endogenous construct)

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Do you often talk about disaster related matters with your neighbors?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

not at all not often sometimes often very often

No o

f re

spo

nde

nts in %

Kathmandu

Kishiwada

• In terms of number, more people in Kathmandu talk about disasters than in Japan• Though some people talk frequently about disasters in Kishiwada, there are still majority of them who don’t talk at all• Possible reason for people in Kishiwada caring less about disaster related matters might be their busy job schedules; while majority of people in Kathmandu can manage some time to talk about disasters • It indicates that a large number of people are concerned about disaster risk in Kathmandu and further trainings / education can bring a positive impact

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Study Methods

DATA ANALYSISDATA ANALYSIS

Structural Ritualization Theory (SRT)

Structural Ritualization Theory (SRT)

Structural Equation Modeling / Multiple correlation analysis

Structural Equation Modeling / Multiple correlation analysis

Secondary Data Sources

Secondary Data Sources

Selection of Case Study Area (Nepal)

Selection of Case Study Area (Nepal)

Primary Data Sources

Primary Data Sources

Participant ObservationParticipant

Observation

Participatory Mapping / Sociogram

Participatory Mapping / Sociogram

Interview (Experts /

Professionals)

Interview (Experts /

Professionals)

Reports / Previous Studies

Reports / Previous Studies

Questionnaire Survey 1




Selection of Case Study Area (Japan)

Selection of Case Study Area (Japan)

Interview (Key informants)

Interview (Key informants)

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Preparations / Safety Precautions

Activates community networks / organization

Social uncertainties/

incidentsMutual Coordination / participation

Collective Response

• Information potential

• Social Norms

•Obligations / Trust

Disaster Management Cycle

Ritual Cycle

Pre

Dis

aste

r

Pos

t D

isas

ter

Risk ManagementEmergency Management

Preparedness

Mitigation

PreventionResponse, RescueRelief

Recovery, RehabilitationReconstruction

DISASTER

Rituals and Disaster Risk Management Nexus

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Rituals and Disaster Risk Management Nexus contd..

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Ritual routes and open spaces in Lalitpur

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Understand about local culture

Develop sense of community

Build awareness about neighborhood features

Getting more familiar with neighbors

highly agree agreeneutral disagreehighly disagree

Kishiwada

Kathmandu

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Helps to know about local culture

Develops a sense of community

Builds awareness about neighborhood features

Helps to be much closer with neighbors

H agree agree neutraldisagree H disagree

Perceived gain from ritual participation

Indicates rituals can develop higher civic sense in Kishiwada than in Kathmandu

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Kishiwada

Kathmandu

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Comes once a year

Helps to know more about community

Relieves boredom

Reduces anxiety and stress

Brings family members together

Helps to make new friends

Helps to be close with colleagues

H Agree Agree Neutral Disagree H disagree

Motivations for participating in rituals

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Helps to be close with colleagues

Helps to make new friends

Brings family members together

Reduces anxiety and daily work stress

Relieves boredom

Helps to know more about community

Comes once a year

highly agree agree neutral disagree highly disagree

• During rituals, people in Kathmandu tend to interact more with friends and families than in Kishiwada

Analysis of Social Impacts of Urban Ritual Events with ... #12/2_Bhandari.pdf · Literature review...

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