Analysis of post-out 2007 Census Test Analysis of post-out Garnett Compton Field Design Manager,...
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![Page 1: Analysis of post-out 2007 Census Test Analysis of post-out Garnett Compton Field Design Manager, 2011 Census.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050714/56649eeb5503460f94bfc890/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
2007 Census Test Analysis of post-outAnalysis of post-out
Garnett ComptonGarnett Compton
Field Design Manager, 2011 CensusField Design Manager, 2011 Census
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1. Setting the scene – Post-out and the 2007 Census Test
2. Differences in response
3. Quality of the address register
4. Costs
5. Other quality and operational impacts
6. Conclusions and questions
Overview
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Why consider Post-out?
• To reduce serious risks experienced in 2001, in particular the failure to recruit a large number of enumerators.
• To provide savings to invest in improving response.
• Because of the limited success of making contact at delivery.
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2007 Census Test – High-level Design
• Address checking
- Conducted in all Test areas during Sept and October
- Split discretionary and full contact methods• Delivery
- 50% Post-out, 50% hand delivery
- For hand delivery 3 attempts at contact over 2 week period• Collection/Follow-up
- Central post-back- 23 May – 22 June- 3 attempts everywhere
- Reminder letter to all outstanding addresses as at 31 May
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2007 Census Test – Some caveats ….
• Voluntary:
Relied on public’s good will to complete a return.
• Publicity:
Pre-delivery information cards.
• Sample:
Skewed to harder to enumerate areas.
• Follow-up:
Fixed number of follow-up attempts everywhere.
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Household response rates by delivery method and ETC
ETC Hand delivery
Post-out Difference P value
Total 53.4% 50.6% 2.8% <1%
1 66.9% 63.4% 3.6% 1%
2 55.7% 51.2% 4.5% 4%
3 47.8% 44.7% 3.1% 9%
4 36.8% 37.0% -0.2% 54%
5 33.8% 29.3% 4.5% 1%
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Success rates at follow-up by delivery method by ETC
ETC Hand delivery
Post-out
1 37.1% 35.4%
2 27.0% 26.9%
3 23.6% 22.2%
4 16.5% 17.6%
5 14.9% 13.6%
Overall 26.0% 25.8%
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Address register coverage
• 680 (1.3%) new addresses found during enumeration in hand delivery areas
– Nearly 70% of new addresses were sub-premise addresses – suggest existed at time of AC.
– About 20% found already existing/available latest update.
– About 1/6 found in hand delivery areas during follow-up
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Comparative costs
Developed a cost model with three key parameters:
• Percentage mix of delivery method;• Differences in initial return rates (i.e. amount
of follow-up); and• Success rates at each follow-up visit.
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Estimated Cost Savings
Estimated cost savings between 100% post-out and 100% hand delivery
Initial return* rate difference
(%’age points)
Estimated savings
5 £28m - £35m
6 £25m – £33m
10 £6m - £21m
15 -£18m - £1m
* At the start of follow-up – 23 May
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Quality and operational impacts
• No difference in under/over count between two methods
• No difference in number failing 2 of 4 rule• No large difference in age/sex distributions
between delivery methods• 50% more calls to the contact centre in post-
out areas• CTES:
– No difference in views on “junk” mail– Small difference recognised as “official” mail
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Conclusions
• Post-out has an impact on return rates, but not success at follow-up. Post-out requires more follow-up to obtain same overall response rate.
• Differences in return rates are not affected by the hard to count characteristics of an area (i.e. the ETC).
• No significant differences in response quality• A post-out methodology will allow savings to invest in
targeted follow-up and community liaison.• The levels of AR undercoverage will be small with
minimal, but manageable, impact on the overall quality.
• Some operational impacts but manageable through design and development
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Conclusions cont ….
Therefore:• Post-out will be the primary means of
delivering questionnaires in 2011;• Approximately 95% of England and Wales
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Supporting post-out for 2011
• Revised addressing strategy• Targeted address checking• Working with the postal service provider• Publicity• Operational Intelligence (questionnaire
tracking)
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Thank you
Any Questions?