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International Conference on Computational
Science and Its Applications (ICCSA
2010)
2010 March, 23-26 Fukuoka
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan
area
Carmelo Maria Torre
Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Polytechnic of Bari,
Silvestro Montrone, Paola Perchinunno
Department of Statistical Science, University of Bari,
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Why this job?Why this job?
Property value appraisal and recaptureProperty value appraisal and recapture is the “ is the “chimerachimera” of all Italian ” of all Italian Researcher sin real estate marketResearcher sin real estate market
Main limitation are: Main limitation are: - - Cadastral system does not provide real and proper on Cadastral system does not provide real and proper on property property market of soils and buldings roperty. market of soils and buldings roperty.
- - Contracts of sales do not contain usually the true price of Contracts of sales do not contain usually the true price of propertyproperty
But: But: Property value can be considered as indirect effect of quality of Property value can be considered as indirect effect of quality of market and availability to residential servicesmarket and availability to residential services
International Conference on Computational
Science and Its Applications (ICCSA
2010)
2010 March, 23-26 Fukuoka
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Why this job?Why this job?
Property value can be identified indirectly Property value can be identified indirectly by the use of a fuzzy by the use of a fuzzy parameter, by the use of a measure of stability of a fuzzy function, parameter, by the use of a measure of stability of a fuzzy function, measuring the stability of property value-differential among different measuring the stability of property value-differential among different areas inside the cityareas inside the city
But: But: Property value can be considered as indirect effect of quality of Property value can be considered as indirect effect of quality of market and availability to residential services, therefore is possible to market and availability to residential services, therefore is possible to rank different market segmentation inside the cityrank different market segmentation inside the city
International Conference on Computational
Science and Its Applications (ICCSA
2010)
2010 March, 23-26 Fukuoka
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Palermo Palermo
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
NapoliNapoli
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
BariBari
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
X
jj
X
jjjjd dYdXYgXfYXdYdXXfYgXYygxfS )(),()(),())(),((
Fuzzy value of property - PalermoFuzzy value of property - Palermo
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
X
jj
X
jjjjd dYdXYgXfYXdYdXXfYgXYygxfS )(),()(),())(),((
Fuzzy value of property - NapoliFuzzy value of property - Napoli
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
X
jj
X
jjjjd dYdXYgXfYXdYdXXfYgXYygxfS )(),()(),())(),((
Fuzzy value of property - PalermoFuzzy value of property - Palermo
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
1 °
i
2
°
°
°
3°
°
°n
Espected Value Espected Value (euros/square (euros/square meters)meters)
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
1 °
i
2
°
°
°
3°
°
°n
Semantic Semantic Distance Distance Euros/(square Euros/(square meters)meters)
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
1
°
i
2
°
°
°
3 °
°° n
°°
°° °
°
°° °° °°
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
X
jj
X
jjjjd dYdXYgXfYXdYdXXfYgXYygxfS )(),()(),())(),((
YXdYdX)Y(g),X(fYXdYdX)X(f),Y(gXY))y(g),x(f(SX
jj
X
jjjjd
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Neighborhoods
Tor
re a
Mar
e
Sta
nic
S.S
pir
ito
S.P
asq
ual
e
S.P
aolo
S.N
icol
a
Pic
one
Pal
ese
Mu
rat
S.G
irol
amo
Mad
onn
ella
Los
eto
Lib
ertà
Jap
igia
Ceg
lie
Car
rass
i
Carbonara 20 479 -458 -491 154 466 -825 -541 -1554 21 -362 154 -379 -341 179 -512
Carrassi 533 992 54 21 666 979 -312 -29 -1041 533 150 667 133 170 691
Ceglie -158 300 -637 -670 -24 287 -1004 -720 -1733 -158 -541 -24 -558 -520
Japigia 362 820 -116 -150 495 -808 -483 -200 -1212 362 -20 495 -37
Libertà 400 858 -79 -112 533 845 -445 -162 -1175 400 16 533
Loseto -133 324 -612 -645 0 312 -979 -695 -1708 -133 -516
Madonnella 383 841 -95 -129 516 829 -462 -179 -1191 383
S.Girolamo 0 458 -479 -512 133 445 -845 -562 -1575
Murat 1575 2033 1095 1062 1708 2020 729 1012
Palese 562 1020 83 50 695 1008 -283
Picone 845 1304 366 333 979 1291
S.Nicola -445 12 -924 -958 -312
S.Paolo -133 324 -612 -645
S.Pasquale 512 970 33
S.Spirito 479 937
Stanic -458
Neighborhoods
Tor
re a
Mar
e
Sta
nic
S.S
pir
ito
S.P
asq
ual
e
S.P
aolo
S.N
icol
a
Pic
one
Pal
ese
Mu
rat
S.G
irol
amo
Mad
onn
ella
Los
eto
Lib
ertà
Jap
igia
Ceg
lie
Car
rass
i
Carbonara 328 523 579 540 320 493 809 677 1582 328 464 320 395 429 316 557
Carrassi 655 1050 476 448 694 1004 531 501 1052 655 458 694 383 396 744
Ceglie 348 326 742 695 270 329 1063 826 1762 348 595 270 558 583
Japigia 500 860 450 420 543 833 572 489 1237 500 396 543 313
Libertà 482 848 443 432 524 862 618 472 1224 482 404 524
Loseto 339 401 722 648 310 383 979 711 1705 339 550
Madonnella 533 866 534 486 569 871 660 558 1219 533
S.Girolamo 384 471 644 611 333 488 943 724 1620
Murat 1620 2080 1105 1132 1706 2035 785 977
Palese 731 1118 520 500 730 1049 514
Picone 952 1378 624 611 984 1319
S.Nicola 478 161 974 989 379
S.Paolo 339 401 722 648
S.Pasquale 610 986 529
S.Spirito 659 1023
Stanic 478
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Neighbourhoods
Tor
re a
Mar
e
Sta
nic
S.S
pir
ito
S.P
asq
ual
e
S.P
aolo
S.N
icol
a
Pic
one
Pal
ese
Mu
rat
S.G
irol
amo
Mad
onn
ella
Los
eto
Lib
ertà
Jap
igia
Ceg
lie
Car
rass
i
Carbonara 0
,06 0
,92 0
,79 0
,91 0
,48 0
,95 1
,02 0
,80 0
,98 0
,06 0
,78 0
,48 0
,96 0
,79 0
,57 0
,92
Carrassi 0
,81 0
,94 0
,11 0
,05 0
,96 0
,98 0
,59 0
,06 0
,99 0
,81 0
,33 0
,96 0
,35 0
,43 0
,93
Ceglie 0
,45 0
,92 0
,86 0
,96 0
,09 0
,87 0
,94 0
,87 0
,98 0
,45 0
,91 0
,09 1
,00 0
,89
Japigia 0
,72 0
,95 0
,26 0
,36 0
,91 0
,97 0
,84 0
,41 0
,98 0
,72 0
,05 0
,91 0
,12
Libertà 0
,83 1
,01 0
,18 0
,26 1
,02 0
,98 0
,72 0
,34 0
,96 0
,83 0
,04 1
,02
Loseto 0
,39 0
,81 0
,85 1
,00 0
,00 0
,81 1
,00 0
,98 1
,00 0
,39 0
,94
Madonnella 0
,72 0
,97 0
,18 0
,27 0
,91 0
,95 0
,70 0
,32 0
,98 0
,72
S.Girolamo 0
,00 0
,97 0
,74 0
,84 0
,40 0
,91 0
,90 0
,78 0
,97
Murat 0
,97 0
,98 0
,99 0
,94 1
,00 0
,99 0
,93 1
,04
Palese 0
,77 0
,91 0
,16 0
,10 0
,95 0
,96 0
,55
Picone 0
,89 0
,95 0
,59 0
,55 0
,99 0
,98
S.Nicola 0
,93 0
,07 0
,95 0
,97 0
,82
S.Paolo 0
,39 0
,81 0
,85 1
,00
S.Pasquale 0
,84 0
,98 0
,06
S.Spirito 0
,73 0
,92
Stanic 0
,96
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Quarters New property Good property Deprived property
Politeama 1,01 1,02 0,96
Libertà 0,95 0,95 0,96
Notarbartolo 0,95 0,95 0,96
Strasburgo 1,04 0,98 1,03
Unità d'Italia 1,04 1,04 0,95
San Lorenzo 0,85 0,96 0,85
Noce 0,98 0,96 0,99
Zisa 0,94 1,47 0,84
Oreto 0,85 1,47 0,84
Piazza Marina 0,97 1,00 0,93
Centro Storico 0,81 0,89 1,02
Calatafimi 0,98 0,97 0,93
Maqueda 0,93 0,81 0,83
Stability of differential value of Stability of differential value of property Palermoproperty Palermo
Fuzzy value of property - PalermoFuzzy value of property - Palermo
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Quarters New property Good property Deprived property
Chiaia 0,96 1,00 0,99
Posillipo 0,96 1,01 0,98
Vomero 0,97 0,98 0,99
Vomero alto 0,90 0,99 1,00
Arenella 0,91 1,00 0,96
Fuorigrotta 0,85 0,96 1,02
Cavalleggeri 0,98 0,96 0,94
Soccavo 1,85 0,94 0,90
Bagnoli 0,91 0,95 0,99
Centro storico/Antico 0,90 0,97 1,00
Materdei 1,02 0,90 0,91
C.V.E 0,94 0,99 0,96
Foria 0,96 0,92 0,93
G.B.Vico 0,97 0,92 0,91
Ferrovia 0,98 0,91 0,91
P.zza Carlo 3° 0,97 0,90 0,87
Centro direzionale 1,04 0,95 0,95
Capodimonte 0,91 0,97 0,97
S.Giovanni a Ted. 1,04 0,92 1,01
Secondigliano 0,96 0,94 0,95
Pozzuoli 0,93 0,98 0,96
Portici 1,04 0,95 0,90
Casoria 1,01 0,99 0,97
Casalnuovo 1,02 0,93 0,92
Sorrento e Penisola 0,96 1,03 0,99
Ischia 0,88 1,01 0,99
Capri 0,98 1,03 0,98
Quarto 1,05 0,96 0,95
Stability of differential value of Stability of differential value of propertypropertyNapoliNapoli
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analyzing the Analyzing the Stability of Stability of “Distance” of “Distance” of property value for property value for each quarter of the each quarter of the citycity
Stability index Stability index =expected value/semantic =expected value/semantic distance distance =1 ± =1 ± εε
Preliminary analysis Preliminary analysis of stability of dataof stability of data
0
Quarters New property Good property Deprived property
Madonella 1 0,96 0,96 0,91
Madonella 2 0,92 0,90 0,91
Madonella 3 0,92 0,86 0,91
Libertà 0,96 0,90 0,91
Murat 1 1,01 1,01 1,01
Murat 2 0,99 1,01 1,00
Città Vecchia1 0,96 1,00 0,96
Città Vecchia 2 0,99 1,24 0,97
Zona Faro
0,98 0,99 0,95
S.Girolamo-Fesca 0,90 1,04 0,99
Stanic 0,91 0,95 0,99
Poggiofranco 1 0,96 0,92 0,96
Poggiofranco 2 0,98 0,92 1,00
Carrassi 1
1,20 0,88 0,99
Carrassi 2
0,94 1,09 0,92
Picone 0,91 0,95 0,96
S.Pasquale 1 1,01 0,90 0,97
S.Pasquale 2 0,94 0,95 0,92
Japigia 1 1,27 0,97 0,96
Japigia 2 0,96 1,10 0,96
San Paolo
1,03 0,94 0,96
Carbonara-Ceglie 0,96 1,02 0,99
Loseto 0,98 0,95 1,00
Palese 0,92 0,95 0,97
S.Spirito 0,95 0,98 0,97
San Girgio
1,04 1,01 0,93
Torre a Mare 0,90 0,97 0,93
Stability of differential value of Stability of differential value of property Bariproperty Bari
PropertyProperty valuevalue Data (FIAIP)Data (FIAIP)
Value for each Value for each quarter of the city of quarter of the city of Bari, in the South of Bari, in the South of ItalyItaly
Quarters
New/refurbished(€/m2) Good state (€/m2) Degraded (€/m2)
min estate value
max estate value min estate value max estate valuemin estate
valuemax estate
value
Carbonara-Ceglie 2.200 2.500 1.900 2.200 1.300 1.700
Carrassi 2.600 3.800 2.200 3.300 1.500 2.600
Japigia 2.400 2.600 2.300 2.500 2.100 2.300
Libertà 2.700 3.500 2.200 2.800 1.800 2.200
Madonnella 2.400 3.500 2.350 3.200 2.300 2.600
S.Girolamo F. 2.200 4.500 2.000 3.000 1.800 2.400
Murat 3.700 5.500 3.200 4.500 3.000 3.500
Palese 2.000 2.600 1.400 1.750 800 1.000
Picone Poggiofr. 2.000 3.500 1.500 2.800 1.100 2.000
S.Nicola 1.500 4.200 1.100 3.000 1.000 2.200
S.Paolo 1.800 2.200 1.400 1.800 1.000 1.400
S.Pasquale 2.600 3.800 2.200 3.300 1.500 2.600
S.Spirito 1.900 2.400 1.300 1.600 800 1.000
Stanic 2.000 2.500 1.500 2.000 1.300 1.800
Torre M. S.Giorgio 1.400 2.500 1.050 1.500 810 1.250
1
Analysis of urban Analysis of urban difficulty difficulty distribution distribution
Identification of Identification of target areas for target areas for urban renewal urban renewal programmesprogrammes
Total fuzzy and Total fuzzy and relative relative approachapproach
2
Varied range of definitions on Urban-social exclusion – Housing Varied range of definitions on Urban-social exclusion – Housing
unavailability unavailability
Total Fuzzy and Relative Total Fuzzy and Relative
Use of Use of Fuzzy SetFuzzy Set to obtain a measurement of the to obtain a measurement of the incidence of relative incidence of relative
difficulty difficulty within a populationwithin a populationAnalysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
The fuzzy TFR approach consists in the definition of the The fuzzy TFR approach consists in the definition of the
measurement of a measurement of a degree of membership degree of membership of an individual to the of an individual to the
fuzzy totality of the difficulty conditions, in the range (0,1)fuzzy totality of the difficulty conditions, in the range (0,1)
Mathematically such a method consists of the construction of a Mathematically such a method consists of the construction of a
function of membership to "the fuzzy totality of difficulty" function of membership to "the fuzzy totality of difficulty"
The function subdividing in clusters of difficulty indicates The function subdividing in clusters of difficulty indicates a a
distribution rule of urban difficulty inside different urban realitiesdistribution rule of urban difficulty inside different urban realities
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Supposing the observation of k indicators of poverty for every family, Supposing the observation of k indicators of poverty for every family,
the function of membership of i-th family to the fuzzy subset of the the function of membership of i-th family to the fuzzy subset of the
poor may be defined thus: poor may be defined thus:
niw
wxg
xfk
jj
k
jjji
i ,.....,1
).(
)(
1
1.
The values wj in the function of membership are just a weighting The values wj in the function of membership are just a weighting
system, whose explication is: system, whose explication is:
)(/1log jj xgw
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Positional social
Quality of housing
Positional Economic quality of Housing
Low educational level
Unemployment rate
Housing Overcrowding
Rented dwellings
lack of functional services (landline telephone)
lack of functional services (heating systems, parking space)
Total difficulty
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Distribution of intrinsic and positional quality of housing
Neighbourhoods
0,0 - 0,2property non-
decay
0,2 - 0,4slightly
property decay
0,4 - 0,6almost
property decay
0,6 - 0,8property decay
0,8 - 1,0Unquestionably
property decay
Carbonara 49 40 52 7 4
Carrassi 76 9 6 10 0
Ceglie 13 12 18 2 4
Japigia 51 16 6 3 2
Libertà 23 14 30 25 16
Roseto 5 3 4 1 0
Madonnella 20 6 8 4 11
S.Girolamo F. 21 28 15 6 2
Murat 106 15 5 2 0
Palese 28 16 15 0 1
Picone - Poggiofranco 106 16 13 4 3
S.Nicola 6 8 9 24 27
S.Paolo 12 32 27 11 3
S.Pasquale 40 14 5 7 2
S.Spirito 28 10 16 3 4
Stanic 5 8 6 1 1
Torre a Mare 17 18 14 2 0
Bari 606 265 249 112 80
After indicators-based clustering, by the imposition of spatial constraints (Patil and Taillie 2004), the approach suggested by
Kulldorff (1997Kulldorff (1997), has been used:
““Sat Scan” Sat Scan”
locating a circular window of arbitrary radius, and calculating the probability of poverty (risk) p1, inside the circle, or the probability of
poverty (risk) p2, outside the circle.
Of all windows, the minimum p-value (probability of critical region referring to the test) corresponds to the most important cluster.
The identification of a special area can be based on the intensity of a statistical attribute, instead of the number of attribute-characterised
elements.
Comparison among Comparison among different census different census sections difficulty sections difficulty distribution distribution
Graduation of Graduation of target areas for target areas for real estate fundingreal estate funding
Sat scan approachSat scan approach3
)(
)(
rand
NNdNNI
A
Nrand
N
dNNd
K
Iij 5.0
)(;)min(
)( 1
Nearest Neighbor Index Nearest Neighbor Index (Chou et al., 2003) use the analysis of
average among close and similar conditions:
if average is higher than the teorethical one: scattered
conditions
if average is lower than the teorethical one: concentrated
conditions
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
SAT SCAN – BARI Almost CriticalSAT SCAN – BARI Almost Critical
ClusterNumber of
casesinside Mean
outside Mean
Standard deviation p-value
Nearest Neighbour Index
1 59 1,900 2,880 1.04 0.0010 0.41555
2 212 1,970 3,000 0.99 0.0010 0.46437
3 210 2,070 2,980 1.01 0.0010 0.40666
4 114 5,020 2,630 0.82 0.0010 0.15294
Total 595
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
Final RemarksFinal Remarks
High instability of real estate dataHigh instability of real estate data
Good Possibility of predict data indirectly:Good Possibility of predict data indirectly:
Some open questions:Some open questions:
How to predict change in investor preference, when data How to predict change in investor preference, when data about property character do not change, but market about property character do not change, but market
trends are shocking varying?trends are shocking varying?
Analysis of positional aspects in the variation of real estate values in an Italian Southern Metropolitan area
Montrone, Torre, Perchinunno
GRAZIEGRAZIE