Análisis económico de algunos impactos del cambio climático en Europa: un enfoque sectorial
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Transcript of Análisis económico de algunos impactos del cambio climático en Europa: un enfoque sectorial
Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impacts in Europe: a Sectoral Approach
Antonio Soria, Juan Carlos Ciscar (JRC, European Commission)jornadas eoi ‘carbon markets and emission reduction’
3 February 2010, Madrid
The IPTSThe IPTS
The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), based in Sevilla, is one of the 7 scientific institutes of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Missionto provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process by researching science-based responses to policy challenges that have both a socio-economic and a scientific or technological dimension
Question of Interest:What are the economic consequences of climate change in Europe? - overall order of magnitude- distribution (space, time, sector)
<Mitigation and Adaptation policies>White Paper on Adaptation (April 2009)
Literature: few references, mainly based on expert judgement (G1)
TAR IPCC (2001) Stern report (2007)
Source: IPCC 4AR (2007), vol. II, Ch. 20
What is known: aggregate impactsWhat is known: aggregate impacts
What is known: social cost of carbonWhat is known: social cost of carbon(marginal damage)(marginal damage)
Tol (2005) review of literature
• Mean $97/tC
• Standard deviation $203/tC
Key, and controversial, assumptions
• Discount rate
• Equity weighting
What is unknownWhat is unknown
• Non-market effects (e.g. biodiversity, ecosystems)
• Extreme weather risks
• Socially contingent effects
• Long-term catastrophic risks
OutlineOutline
1. Overview of the PESETA project
2. Methodology: the economic CGE model
3. Sectoral results
4. Overall economic impacts
5. Conclusions
About PESETAAbout PESETA
PESETA stands for: Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European union based on boTtom-up Analyses
Main purpose: Quantitative, multi-sectoral assessment of the monetary estimates of impacts of climate change in Europe
JRC funded projectTo support policymakersLargely based on past DG Research-funded projects
(PRUDENCE, DINAS-Coast, cCASHh, NewExt,…)
Project partners and scopeProject partners and scope
Climate scenarios: DMI, CRU
Six sectoral assessments:Agriculture: U. Politécnica de MadridHuman health: AEA TechnologyRiver basin flooding: JRC/IESCoastal systems: FEEM/Southampton U.Tourism: U. Maastricht-ICIS
Coordination and integration into CGE model: JRC/IPTS
Integrated economic impact assessment
Starting point: physical impact estimates
Some sectors provide with direct effects estimates (e.g. river floods)
Overall effects (direct + indirect) assessed with a computable general equilibrium model of Europe
Socioeconomic scenario: GDP, population assumptions
Agriculturemodel
Coastal Systems
model
RiverFlooding
model
Tourismmodel
Stage 1:Modelingfuture climate
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
Stage 2:Modelingphysicalimpacts
Climate model
Climate data(T, P, SLR)
Socioeconomic scenario: GDP, population assumptions
Agriculturemodel
Coastal Systems
model
RiverFlooding
model
Tourismmodel
Agriculturemodel
Coastal Systems
model
RiverFlooding
model
Tourismmodel
Stage 1:Modelingfuture climate
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
Stage 2:Modelingphysicalimpacts
Climate model
Climate data(T, P, SLR)
Climate model
Climate data(T, P, SLR)
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
impacts
Stage 3:Modelingeconomicimpacts
General Equilibrium model
Economicimpacts
Valuationagriculture
impacts
Valuationcoasts impacts
Valuationfloods impacts
Valuationtourism impacts
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
Physical impacts
agriculture
Physical impacts coasts
Physical impacts floods
Physical impacts tourism
impacts
Stage 3:Modelingeconomicimpacts
General Equilibrium model
Economicimpacts
General Equilibrium model
Economicimpacts
Valuationagriculture
impacts
Valuationcoasts impacts
Valuationfloods impacts
Valuationtourism impacts
Valuationagriculture
impacts
Valuationcoasts impacts
Valuationfloods impacts
Valuationtourism impacts
Valuationagriculture
impacts
Valuationcoasts impacts
Valuationfloods impacts
Valuationtourism impacts
Grouping Grouping of countriesof countries
Climate Scenarios
Data needs: 50 km resolution; daily and monthly
Selection of scenarios2011-2040 period: A2 IPCC SRES scenariodata from the Rossby Center
2071-2100 period: data from PRUDENCEA2, B2 IPCC SRES scenarios2 regional climate models, RCMs (HIRHAM, RCA)2 global circulation models, GCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4)
2.5°C 3.9°C 4.1°C 5.4°C
World population in 2100 (1012) 10.4 15.1 10.4 15.1World GDP in 2100 (1012, 1990US$) 235 243 235 243CO2 Concentration (ppm) 561 709 561 709∆ Temperature (ºC)*
World 2.4 3.1 2.3 3.1EU‡ 2.5 3.9 4.3 5.4 Northern Europe 2.9 4.1 3.6 4.7 British Isles 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.9 Central Europe North 2.3 3.7 4.0 5.5 Central Europe South 2.4 3.9 4.4 6.0 Southern Europe 2.6 4.1 4.3 5.6
∆ Precipitation (%)*EU‡ 1 -2 2 -6 Northern Europe 10 10 19 24 British Isles -5 -2 10 5 Central Europe North 3 1 6 -1 Central Europe South 2 -2 -4 -16 Southern Europe -7 -15 -13 -28
Sea Level Rise (high climate sensitivity) (cm) 49 56 51 59
Scenarios
*Increase in the period 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990. ‡European regions: Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria), Central Europe South (France, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Slovenia), Central Europe North (Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, and Poland), British Isles (Ireland and UK), and Northern Europe (Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania).
Four 2080s ScenariosFour 2080s Scenarios
TemperatureTemperature3.93.9°°C (A2 Hadley) 5.4C (A2 Hadley) 5.4°°C (A2 C (A2 EchamEcham))
PrecipitationPrecipitation3.93.9°°C (A2 Hadley) 5.4C (A2 Hadley) 5.4°°C (A2 C (A2 EchamEcham))
Methodologies for Physical Impacts Assessment
Detailed process modellingAgriculture, DSSAT crop model River basin flooding, LISFLOOD hydrological modelCoastal systems, DIVA model
Reduced-form exposure-response functionsTourismHuman Health
Economic impact assessment
Starting point: physical impact estimates
Some sectors provide with economic direct effects estimates (e.g. river floods)
Overall effects (direct + indirect) assessed with a computable general equilibrium model of Europe: GEM-E3 model
2. The general equilibrium economic model
The The GEMGEM--E3 E3 Model:Model:General Equilibrium Model for General Equilibrium Model for
EnergyEnergy--EconomicsEconomics--Environment Environment interactionsinteractions
General equilibriumGeneral equilibrium
• Neoclassical framework• Each agent pursues its own interest• Decentralised information (preferences of
consumers and technology of firms)• Simultaneous optimal behaviour• Interaction of all markets• Interaction of all agents (consumers, firms,
government, rest of the world)
Advantages of CGE modelling
• Consistency• Theory (microeconomics foundations, within a consistent
macroeconomic framework)• Data (Input-output, National Accounts, SAM)
• Structural model (versus reduced-form models): explain behaviour of agents in markets, taking into account institutions
• Transparency• Systematic analysis; not mechanical• Flexibility• Can address a broad range of policy issues
Criticisms / disadvantages of CGE modelling
• Weak empirical validation (calibration versus econometric estimation)
• The critical role of functional forms• Simplification of exogenous elements of the model• Data requirements• Heavy computational load
The GEM-E3 model: European model version
Computable General Equilibrium model
Representing multiple production sectors and countriesIntegrating energy and environment in the economy
GEM-E3: Standard Version24 countries, 18 sectors (Eurostat)Perfect competition for all commodity marketsEnvironmental module fully incorporated (All GHGsincluded)
The The GEMGEM--E3E3 model: Productionmodel: ProductionProduction (output)
CapitalLabourEnergy
Materials bundle
Electricity
LabourMaterails
Fuels bundleFuels
Coal
GasOil
Labour
Materials
Agriculture
Non-market servicesMarket services
Credit & insuranceCredit & insuranceTelecommunication
Building/Constr.Consumer goodsOther equipmentTransport equip.Electrical goods
Other en. intensivechemicals
Ferrous, ore, metals
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reserves
• Perfect competition
• Nested CES production function
• Fully flexible coefficients
• EU econometric evidence on elasticities
The The GEMGEM--E3E3 model: Consumptionmodel: Consumption
Intertemporal maximization of consumer’s utility
involving consumption, savings, leisurelabour supply also derived from utility maximizationsteady state solution used
LES with durable and non-durable goods
Total Income
Leisure
Labour Supply
Consumption
Savings
Investment indwellings
MonetaryAssets
Durable goods Non-durable goods andservices
• Cars• Heating Systems• Electric Appliance
• Food• Clothing• Housing• Housing furniture and
operation• Medical care and health
expenses• Purchased transport• Communication• recreation, entrertainment etc.• Other services• Fuels and power
O ti f t t
Consumption of non-durableslinked to the use of durables
Disposableincome
3. Sectoral results
AgricultureAgriculture
Modelling of physical impacts and link to general equilibrium model
Site-evidence on average yield change across Europe, DSSAT model
Yield changes (t/Ha)
Interpreted as TFP change
Y = TFP CES(K, LEM)
Agriculture
Crop yieldchanges (t/Ha), production losses and gains
Agriculture: crop yield changes (%)compared to 1961-1990
B2 HadAM3h A2 HadAM3h B2 ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM42.5°C 3.9°C 4.1°C 5.4°C
Northern Europe 37 39 36 52 62British Isles -9 -11 15 19 20Central Europe North -1 -3 2 -8 16Central Europe South 5 5 3 -3 7Southern Europe 0 -12 -4 -27 15EU 3 -2 3 -10 17
2025
Coastal SystemsCoastal Systems
Coastal systems: the methodCoastal systems: the method
DIVA model
Impact categories: sea floods, migration, other
Integration into the CGE model:Interpretation of sea flood cost as capital lossInterpretation of migration cost as additional obliged consumption (welfare loss)
Coastal systems- No adaptation - With adaptation
Coastal Systemspeople flooded (1000s/year) in main scenarios with
high climate sensitivity, without adaptation
B2 HadAM3h A2 HadAM3h B2 ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM42.5°C 3.9°C 4.1°C 5.4°C high SLR
Northern Europe 20 40 20 56 272British Isles 70 136 86 207 1,279Central Europe North 345 450 347 459 2,398Central Europe South 82 144 85 158 512Southern Europe 258 456 313 474 1,091EU 775 1,225 851 1,353 5,552
River FloodsRiver Floods
River Floods: the methodologyRiver Floods: the methodology
LISFLOOD model; integration of damages for various return periods (from several ‘representative basins’)
Economic valuation: projection of change in 100-year flood damage for the scenario (relative to control)
Integration into the GEM-E3 model:Damage to residential buildings (additional obliged consumption)Damage to productive sectors (industry, services,…):
Capital lossProduction loss
River FloodsChange in
Economicdamage (note redmeans a decrease)
River floodsexpected economic damage (million €/year)
B2 HadAM3h A2 HadAM3h B2 ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM4 simulated2.5°C 3.9°C 4.1°C 5.4°C 1961-1990
Northern Europe -325 20 -100 -95 578British Isles 755 2,854 2,778 4,966 806Central Europe North 1,497 2,201 3,006 5,327 1,555Central Europe South 3,495 4,272 2,876 4,928 2,238Southern Europe 2,306 2,122 291 -95 1,224EU 7,728 11,469 8,852 15,032 6,402
Human healthHuman health
Human Healthaverage annual heat-related (left) and cold-related (right)
death rates (per 100,000 population) 3.9°C scenario
Note: using climate-dependent health functions (no acclimatisation)
TourismTourism
TourismTourismTCI scores in summerTCI scores in summer
Ideal
Excellent
Very good
Good
Acceptable
Marginal
Unfavourable
control
5.45.4°°CC
4.14.1°°CC
TourismChange in expenditure receipts (million €)
B2 HadAM3h 2.5ºC
A2 HadAM3h 3.9ºC
B2 ECHAM4 4.1ºC
A2 ECHAM4 5.4ºC
Norhern Europe 443 642 1,888 2,411British Isles 680 932 3,587 4,546Central Europe North 634 920 3,291 4,152Central Europe South 925 1,763 7,673 9,556Southern Europe -824 -995 -3,080 -5,398EU 1,858 3,262 13,360 15,268
4. Overall economic impact
• Effects of 2080s climate • On European economy as of today• Assuming there is no public adaptation, so that priorities for adaptation within the EU can be explored
Annual damage Annual damage in terms of GDP changes (million in terms of GDP changes (million €€))
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
SouthernEurope
Central EuropeSouth
Central EuropeNorth
British Isles NorthernEurope
EU
2.5°C3.9°C4.1°C5.4°C5.4°C, 88 cm SLR
Annual damage Annual damage in terms of Welfare changes (%)in terms of Welfare changes (%)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
SouthernEurope
Central EuropeSouth
Central EuropeNorth
British Isles NorthernEurope
EU
2.5°C3.9°C4.1°C5.4°C5.4°C, 88 cm SLR
Sectoral decomposition Sectoral decomposition of welfare changes (%)of welfare changes (%)
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
2.5o
C
3.9o
C
5.4o
C
5.4i
oC
Southern Europe Central Europe South Central Europe North British Isles Northern Europe EU
TourismRiver floodsCoastal systemsAgriculture
5. Conclusions
• Integration of various disciplines, consistency requirements• Further research is needed, concerning:
• Costs and benefits of adaptation• Cross-sectoral consistency• Land use modelling • Monte Carlo analysis
http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Muchas gracias !