Anaallyy ssiis aannd FFoorreeccaasstt Foonn ICChhiinnaa F ... · Analysis and Forecast on China...

Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Limited

March, 2018

AAnnaallyyssiiss aanndd FFoorreeccaasstt oonn CChhiinnaa FFeeeedd IInndduussttrryy

（（22001177--22001188））

All Rights Reserved:

BOABC

Analysis and Forecast on China Feed Industry (2017-2018)

Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page II of 20

Background

Based on 20 years of accumulative industrial data such as a continuous track on

industrial changes and in-depth research, BOABC offers a valuable feed industry and

investment analysis report.

In 2018, China’s industrial feed sector experienced accelerating survival of the fittest,

as well as transformation and grading. Increasingly strict requirements on

environment became the important factor for promoting industrial integration. There

was an obvious feature for feed companies to be engaged in farming and processing.

Large-scale feed enterprise groups are involved in business diversification, and they

are increasing investment costs and standards. Industrial competition is upgraded to

a new period of new technologies, high standards, large scale, integration and

finalization. However, along with livestock farming margins falling from a high level

and fluctuating greatly, feed companies saw aggravated differentiation on profitability.

And meanwhile, it is increasingly difficult to control main feed material markets.

Cutting corn stocks has obvious effects, but the reopening of corn further processing

sector especially fuel alcohol sector would lead to a tight relation between supply and

demand instead of a loose situation; the dependence of main protein feed materials

on international market is irreversible, and the substitution effect of soybean meal for

other meals would be more obvious; the additives such as amino acid and vitamin

would be deeply engaged in international division of labour, and market prices would

fluctuate dramatically.

This report shows analysis on operating situations and competitiveness trends of feed

industry, key feed enterprise groups’ operating situations, and market segment of

industrial feed for pig, poultry, aquatic animal and ruminants, and the change features

of production, trade, consumption and prices of main feed materials in 2018, as well


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page III of 20

as forecasts on development and market trends of China’s industrial feed and main

feed materials sectors in 2018.

Thanks to 20 years of experience about China’s feed industry and good relations with

related governmental departments, associations and key feed companies, this report

strives to provide accurate, authoritative, scientific and forward-looking data.

BOABC’s report would provide important decisions to domestic feed material

producers, traders, feed producers and agricultural investment organizations, as well

as important reference data to industry associations, research institutions, etc.


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page IV of 20

Table of Content

Chapter One 2017 China Feed Industry Overview and 2018 Prospects ........... 1

1 2017 Industrial Feed Production in China ....................................................................... 1

1.1 China’s Industrial Feed Output Increased to About 210 Million Tons in 2017, slightly up

about 0.5% Year on Year .......................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Variation in Industrial Feed Products Structure in 2017 ..................................................... 2

1.3 Variation in Livestock and Poultry Feed output and Structure by Variety in 2017 ............. 6

2 2017 Industrial Feed Price and Processing Benefit in China ........................................... 7

2.1 Overall Livestock and Poultry Compound Feed Continue Tended To Drop....................... 7

2.2 Cost of Main Feed Raw Materials Dropped Sharply and Processing Benefits of Industrial

Feed Remained High ................................................................................................................ 7

3 Analysis of Large-Scale Feed Groups ............................................................................ 8

3.1 Operation Characteristics of Industrial Feed Industry in 2017 ........................................... 8

3.2 Analysis on Large Feed Enterprise Groups ..................................................................... 10

4 Analysis on Market Segmentation of Industrial Feed by Livestock and Poultry in 2017 . 26

4.1 Analysis on Hog Feed Market in 2017.............................................................................. 26

4.2 Analysis on Meat Poultry Feed Market in 2017 ................................................................ 29

4.3 Analysis on Egg Poultry Feed Market in 2017 ................................................................. 32

4.4 Analysis on Aqua Feed Market in 2017 ............................................................................ 34

4.5 Analysis on Ruminant Feed Market in 2017 ..................................................................... 37

5 Forecast on Operation of Industrial Feed Industry in China .......................................... 40

5.1 Growth of Industrial Feed Output Slowed Down and Production Regions Moved to Other

Regions ................................................................................................................................... 40

5.2 Increasingly Strict Requirements on Environment Became Important Factor for Promoting

Industry Integration ................................................................................................................. 41

5.3 Degree of Production and Market Concentration Further Improved ................................ 41

5.4 Obvious Feature of Involving in Farming and Processing Promoted Feed Companies’

Transformation ........................................................................................................................ 41

Chapter Two 2017 China Corn Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ............. 42

6 2017 China’s Corn Market Analysis and 2018 Forecast ................................................ 42

6.1 Analysis on Corn Policies ................................................................................................. 42


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page V of 20

6.2 2017 Corn Production ....................................................................................................... 45

6.3 2017 Corn Trade ............................................................................................................... 47

6.4 2017 Corn Demand .......................................................................................................... 48

6.5 Overall Corn Price Kept Stable and Average Price was 10% Less than Last Year ......... 51

6.6 2017 Corn Substitutes Demand ....................................................................................... 52

6.7 Forecast on China’s Corn Market in 2018 ........................................................................ 53

Chapter Three 2017 China Vegetable Protein Feed Market Analysis and 2018

Prospects ................................................................................................................ 55

7 2017 China Vegetable Protein Feed Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ................... 55

7.1 2017 Vegetable Protein Feed Production......................................................................... 55

7.2 2017 Vegetable Protein Feed Trade ................................................................................. 58

7.3 2017 Vegetable Protein Feed Demand ............................................................................ 60

7.4 2018 China Vegetable Protein Feed Market Forecast ..................................................... 66

8 2017 China Soybean Meal Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ................................. 67

8.1 2017 Soybean Meal Production ....................................................................................... 67

8.2 2017 Soybean Meal Trade ............................................................................................... 68

8.3 2017 Soybean Meal Demand ........................................................................................... 70

8.4 Soybean Meal Prices in 2017 Decreased From Last Year .............................................. 72

8.5 Prospects on 2018 Soybean Meal Market ....................................................................... 73

9 2017 China Rapeseed Meal Market Analysis and 2018 Prospect ................................. 74

9.1 2017 Rapeseed Meal Production ..................................................................................... 74

9.2 2017 Rapeseed Meal Trade ............................................................................................. 76

9.3 2017 Rapeseed Meal Demand ......................................................................................... 78

9.4 Rapeseed Meal Average Price Was Slightly Lower than the Previous Year ................... 80

9.5 Prospects on 2018 Rapeseed Meal Market ..................................................................... 81

10 2017 China Cottonseed Meal Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ........................... 82

10.1 2017 Cottonseed Meal Production ................................................................................. 82

10.2 2017 Cottonseed Meal Trade ......................................................................................... 84

10.3 2017 Cottonseed Meal Demand ..................................................................................... 85

10.4 Cottonseed Meal Prices in 2017 Continue Went down .................................................. 87

10.5 Prospects on 2018 Cottonseed Meal Market ................................................................. 88

11 2017 China DDGS Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ............................................ 89

11.1 2017 DDGS Production .................................................................................................. 89

11.2 2017 DDGS Trade .......................................................................................................... 90


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page VI of 20

11.3 2017 DDGS Demand ...................................................................................................... 91

11.4 DDGS Price Went Down Slightly from the Previous Year .............................................. 94

11.5 Prospects on 2018 DDGS Market .................................................................................. 95

Chapter Four 2017 China Animal Protein Feed Market Analysis and 2018

Prospects ................................................................................................................ 96

12 2017 China Fish Meal Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ....................................... 96

12.1 Global Fish Meal Output Hit Highest Point in a Decade, Demand Expanded ............... 96

12.2 Fish Meal Output Dropped & Imports Rose in China ..................................................... 97

12.3 Fish meal Demand Grows in China, Consumption Is Mainly in Aquaculture & Pig

Farming ................................................................................................................................. 100

12.4 Fish Meal Price Fell 8% from the Previous Year .......................................................... 104

12.4 Owing to an Abundant Supply, Average Price of Fish Meal was Down 10% ............... 104

12.5 Prospects on 2018 Fish Meal Market ........................................................................... 105

13 2017 China Meat and Bone Meal Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects ................... 106

13.1 Meat and Bone Meal Output in 2017 Increased by 8% ............................................... 106

13.2 2017 Meat and Bone Meal Trade ................................................................................. 107

13.3 2017 Meat and Bone Meal Demand ............................................................................. 109

13.4 Average Price of Meat and Bone Meal Up 10% from Last Year ................................... 111

13.5 Prospects on 2018 Meat and Bone Meal Market ......................................................... 112

Chapter Five 2017 China Feed Additive Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects113

14 2017 China Lysine Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects .......................................... 113

14.1 2017 Lysine Production ................................................................................................ 113

14.2 2017 Lysine Trade ........................................................................................................ 114

14.3 2017 Lysine Demand .................................................................................................... 116

14.4 2017 Lysine Prices Lower from 2016 ........................................................................... 118

14.5 Prospects on 2018 Lysine Market ................................................................................ 119

15 2017 China Dl-Methionine Market Analysis and 2018 Prospects .............................. 120

15.1 2017 DL-Met Production ............................................................................................... 120

15.2 2017 DL-Met Trade ....................................................................................................... 121

15.3 2017 DL-Met Demand .................................................................................................. 123

15.3.3 Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning, Hebei and Henan: the Major DL-Met Consumption

Provinces .............................................................................................................................. 124

15.4 2017 DL-Met Prices Maintained at a Low Level, down 20% Year on Year .................. 125

15.5 Prospects on 2018 DL-Met Market ............................................................................... 126


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16 2017 China’s Vitamin Market Analysis and 2018 Forecast ........................................ 127

16.1 Along with Production Suspension and Limitation Resulting from Environmental

Examinations, Vitamin Output Decreased ............................................................................ 127

16.2 Vitamin Exports up Year on Year, and Export Prices up Year on Year Obviously ........ 128

16.3 Along with a Better Demand and an Insufficient Supply, Vitamin Prices Hit a New Record

.............................................................................................................................................. 129

16.4 2018 Vitamin Market Forecast ...................................................................................... 130

List of Maps

Map 1, Distribution of Industrial Feed Output by Province in 2017 .............................................. 2

Map 2, Distribution of Hog Feed Output by Province in 2017 .....................................................28

Map 3, Distribution of Meat Poultry Feed Output by Province in 2017 ......................................31

Map 4, Distribution of Egg Poultry Feed Output by Province in 2017 ........................................34

Map 5, Distribution of Aqua Feed Output by Province in 2017 ...................................................36

Map 6, Distribution of Ruminant Feed Output by Province in 2017 ...........................................39

Map 7, Distribution of Vegetable Protein Meal Output by Province in 2017 .............................58

Map 8, Distribution of Vegetable Protein Meal Demand by Province in 2017 ..........................65

Map 9, Distribution of Soybean Meal Output by Province in 2017 .............................................68

Map 10, Distribution of Soybean Meal Demand by Province in 2017 ........................................ 72

Map 11, Distribution of Rapeseed Meal Output by Province in 2017 ......................................... 76

Map 12, Distribution of Rapeseed Meal Demand by Province in 2017 .....................................80

Map 13, Distribution of Cottonseed Meal Output by Province in 2017 ......................................84

Map 14, Distribution of Cottonseed Meal Demand by Province in 2017 ................................... 87

Map 15, Distribution of DDGS Output by Province in 2017 .........................................................90

Map 16, Distribution of DDGS Demand by Province in 2017 ......................................................94

Map 17, Distribution of Fish Meal Demand by Province in 2017 ..............................................104

Map 18, Distribution of Meat and Bone Meal Demand by Province in 2017...........................111

Map 14, Distribution of Lysine Demand by Province in 2017 ....................................................118

Map 15, Distribution of DL-Methionine Demand by Province in 2017 .....................................125


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page VIII of 20

List of Figures

Figure 1, Variation in China’s Industrial Feed Production, 2008-2017 ..................................... 1

Figure 2, Variation in China’s Feed Production by Product Variety, 2008-2017 ...................... 3

Figure 3, Variation in China’s Feed Structure by Product Variety, 2008-2017 ......................... 3

Figure 4, China’s Compound Feed Output and Proportion, 2008-2017 .................................. 4

Figure 5, China’s Concentrate Feed Output and Proportion, 2008-2017 ................................ 5

Figure 6, China’s Additive Premix Feed Output and Proportion, 2008-2017 ........................... 5

Figure 7, Variation in China’s Feed Structure by Livestock Variety, 2008-2017 ...................... 6

Figure 8, Variation in Compound Feed Prices of Hog, Meat Poultry and Egg Poultry,

2008-2017.......................................................................................................................... 7

Figure 9, Variation in Feed Processing Benefits of Hog, Meat Poultry and Egg Poultry,

2014-2017.......................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 10, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of New Hope Liuhe Group, 2010-2017.............. 11

Figure 11, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Wens Group, 2010-2017 ................................ 12

Figure 12, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Twins Group, 2010-2017 ............................... 13

Figure 13, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of CP Group, 2010-2017.................................... 15

Figure 14, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Haid Group, 2010-2017 ................................. 16

Figure 15, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Zhengbang Group, 2010-2017 ...................... 17

Figure 15, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Tongwei Group, 2010-2017 ........................... 18

Figure 17, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Dabeinong Group, 2010-2017 ....................... 19

Figure 18, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Tangrenshen Group, 2010-2017 ................... 20

Figure 19, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Wellhope Group, 2010-2017 ......................... 21

Figure 20, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of TECON Group, 2010-2017 ............................ 22

Figure 21, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Jinxinnong Group, 2010-2017 ....................... 23

Figure 22, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Tech-Bank Group, 2010-2017 ....................... 24

Figure 23, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Aonong, 2010-2017 ....................................... 25

Figure 24, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of Tianma, 2010-2017 ........................................ 26

Figure 25, Variation in China’s Hog Feed Structure, 2008-2017 ............................................ 27

Figure 26, Top 10 Hog Feed Producers in 2017 .................................................................... 29

Figure 27, Variation in China’s Meat Poultry Feed Structure, 2008-2017 .............................. 30

Figure 28, Top 10 Poultry Feed Producers in 2017 ................................................................ 32

Figure 29, Variation in China’s Egg Poultry Feed Structure, 2008-2017 ............................... 33

Figure 30, Variation in China’s Aquatic Feed Structure, 2008-2017 ...................................... 35


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page IX of 20

Figure 31, Top 10 Aqua Feed Producers in 2017 ................................................................... 37

Figure 32, Variation in China’s Ruminant Feed Structure, 2008-2017 ................................... 38

Figure 33, Top 10 Ruminant Feed Producers in 2017 ........................................................... 40

Figure 34, Variation in China’s Corn Acreage, 2008-2017 ..................................................... 45

Figure 35, Variation in China’s Corn Yield, 2008-2017 .......................................................... 46

Figure 36, Variation in China’s Corn Output, 2008-2017 ....................................................... 46

Figure 37, Variation in China’s Corn Import Volume and Import Price, 2007-2017 ............... 47

Figure 38, China’s Corn Import by Original Country in 2017 ................................................. 48

Figure 39, Variation in China’s Corn Demand, 2008-2017 ..................................................... 49

Figure 40, Variation in Corn Starch Processing Benefits, 2008-2017 .................................... 50

Figure 41, Variation in Corn Alcohol Processing Benefits, 2008-2017................................... 50

Figure 42, Variation in Corn Average Prices in Producing Regions, Main Consumption

Regions and Nationally, 2008-2017 ................................................................................ 51

Figure 43, Variation in China’s Corn and substitutes Import Volume, 2010-2017 ................. 53

Figure 44, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Output, 2008-2017 ......................... 56

Figure 45, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Production Structure, 2008-2017 ... 57

Figure 46, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Import Volume, 2008-2017 ............. 59

Figure 47, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Export Volume, 2008-2017 ............ 60

Figure 48, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Demand, 2008-2017 ...................... 61

Figure 49, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Demand Structure, 2008-2017 ....... 62

Figure 50, Vegetable Protein Demand Structure in Hog Feed in 2017 .................................. 62

Figure 51, Vegetable Protein Demand Structure in Meat Poultry Feed in 2017 .................... 63

Figure 52, Vegetable Protein Demand Structure in Egg Poultry Feed in 2017 ...................... 63

Figure 53, Vegetable Protein Demand Structure in Aquatic Feed in 2017............................. 64

Figure 54, Vegetable Protein Demand Structure in Ruminant Feed in 2017 ......................... 64

Figure 55, Variation in China’s Soybean Meal Output, 2008-2017 ........................................ 67

Figure 56, Variation in China’s Soybean Meal Export Volume and Export Price, 2008-2017 69

Figure 57, China’s Soybean Meal Export by Country of Destination in 2017 ........................ 69

Figure 58, Variation in China’s Soybean Meal Demand, 2008-2017 ..................................... 70

Figure 59, China’s Soybean Meal Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 ............................. 71

Figure 60, Variation in Soybean Meal Average Price of Main Producing Regions and

Consumption Regions, 2008-2017 .................................................................................. 73

Figure 61, Variation in China’s Rapeseed Meal Output, 2008-2017 ...................................... 75


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page X of 20

Figure 62, Variation in China’s Rapeseed Meal Import Volume, 2008-2017 ......................... 77

Figure 63, China’s Rapeseed Meal Import by Original Country in 2017 ................................ 77

Figure 64, Variation in China’s Rapeseed Meal Demand, 2008-2017 ................................... 78

Figure 65, China’s Rapeseed Meal Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 ........................... 79

Figure 66, Variation in China’s Rapeseed Meal Price, 2008-2017 ........................................ 81

Figure 67, Variation in China’s Cottonseed Meal Production, 2008-2017 ............................. 83

Figure 68, Variation in China’s Cottonseed Meal Export Volume and Export Price, 2008-2017

......................................................................................................................................... 85

Figure 69, China’s Cottonseed Meal Export by Country of Destination in 2017 .................... 85

Figure 70, Variation in China’s Cottonseed Meal Demand, 2008-2017 ................................. 86

Figure 71, China’s Cottonseed Meal Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 ......................... 86

Figure 72, Variation in China’s Cottonseed Meal Price, 2008-2017 ...................................... 88

Figure 73, Variation in China’s DDGS Production, 2008-2017 .............................................. 89

Figure 74, Variation in China’s DDGS Import Volume and Import Price, 2008-2017 ............ 91

Figure 75, Variation in China’s DDGS Demand, 2008-2017 .................................................. 92

Figure 76, China’s DDGS Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 .......................................... 93

Figure 77, Variation in China’s DDGS Price, 2008-2017 ....................................................... 95

Figure 78, Variation in Global Fish Meal Production, 2010-2017 ........................................... 97

Figure 79, Variation in China’s Fish Meal Production, 2008-2017 ......................................... 98

Figure 80, Variation in China’s Fish Meal Import Volume and Import Price, 2007-2017 ....... 99

Figure 81, China’s Fish Meal Import by Original Country in 2017 ....................................... 100

Figure 82, Variation in China’s Fish Meal Demand, 2008-2017 ........................................... 101

Figure 83, China’s Fish Meal Demand by Livestock in 2017 ............................................... 102

Figure 84, China’s Fish Meal Demand structure in Aquatic Feed in 2017 ........................... 103

Figure 85, Variation in Import Fish Meal Prices of SD65% and Super SD, 2008-2017 ....... 105

Figure 86, Variation in China’s Meat and Bone Meal Production, 2008-2017 ..................... 107

Figure 87, Variation in China’s Meat and Bone Meal Import Volume and Import Price,

2008-2017...................................................................................................................... 108

Figure 88, China’s Meat and Bone Meal Import by Original Country in 2017...................... 109

Figure 89, Variation in China’s Meat and Bone Meal Demand, 2008-2017 ......................... 109

Figure 90, China’s Meat and Bone Meal Demand by Livestock in 2017 ............................. 110

Figure 91, Variation in Import Meat and Bone Meal Prices in Major Ports, 2008-2017 ....... 112

Figure 92, Variation in China’s Lysine Output, 2008-2017 ................................................... 114


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page XI of 20

Figure 93, Variation in China’s Lysine (including Ester and Salt) Export Volume and Export

Price, 2008-2017 ........................................................................................................... 115

Figure 94, China’s Lysine (including Ester and Salt) by Country of Destination in 2017 ..... 116

Figure 95, Variation in China’s Lysine Demand, 2008-2017 ................................................ 117

Figure 96, China’s Lysine Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 ........................................ 117

Figure 97, Variation in China’s 98.5% and 65% Lysine Average Prices, 2008-2017 ........... 119

Figure 98, Variation in China’s Dl-Mehtionine Output, 2008-2017 ....................................... 121

Figure 99, Variation in China’s Dl-Mehtionine Import Volume and Import Price, 2008-2017

....................................................................................................................................... 122

Figure 100, China’s DL-Methionine Import by Original Country in 2017 ............................. 122

Figure 101, Variation in China’s DL-Methionine Demand, 2008-2017 ................................. 123

Figure 102, China’s DL-Methionine Demand by Livestock Variety in 2017 ......................... 124

Figure 103, Variation in Prices of China’s Solid and Liquid DL-Methionine, 2008-2017 ..... 126

Figure 104, Variation in Prices of Vitamin A and Vitamin E, 2008-2017 .............................. 129

List of Tables

Table 2, Capacity and Producers of Main Vitamin Varieties ......................................................128

Attached Table 1, Industrial Feed Output in China and Each Province, 2008-2017 ..............131

Attached Table 2, Compound Feed Output in China and Each Province, 2008-2017 ..........132

Attached Table 3, Concentrate Feed Output in China and Each Province, 2008-2017 ........133

Attached Table 4, Additive Premix Feed Output in China and Each Province, 2008-2017...134

Attached Table 5, China’s Corn Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 .................................135

Attached Table 6, China’s Sorghum Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ..........................135

Attached Table 7, China’s Barley Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ...............................135

Attached Table 8, China’s Soybean Meal Export by Country of Destination, 2014-2017 .....136

Attached Table 9, China’s Rapeseed Meal Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ..............136

Attached Table 10, China’s Cottonseed Meal Export by Country of Destination, 2014-2017

.................................................................................................................................................... 137

Attached Table 11, China’s Fish Meal Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ....................... 137

Attached Table 12, China’s DDGS Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ............................ 137

Attached Table 13, China’s Lysine (including Ester and Salt) Export by Country of Destination,


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking Page XII of 20

2014-2017 .................................................................................................................................138

Attached Table 14, China’s DL-Methionine Import by Original Country, 2014-2017 ..............138

Attached Table 15, China’s Corn Import by Enterprises in 2017 ..............................................139

Attached Table 16, China’s Sorghum Import by Enterprises in 2017 .......................................139

Attached Table 17, China’s Barley Import by Enterprises in 2017 ............................................140

Attached Table 18, China’s DDGS Import by Enterprises in 2017............................................140

Attached Table 19, China’s Fish Meal Import by Enterprises in 2017 ......................................141

Attached Table 20, China’s Lysine (including Ester and Salt) Export by Enterprise in 2017 142

Attached Table 21, China’s DL-Methionine Import by Enterprises in 2017 .............................142

Attached Table 22, China Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010/11-2017/17 ..............143

Attached Table 23, China Soybean Meal Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010/11-2017/17

....................................................................................................................................................143

Attached Table 24, China Rapeseed Meal Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010/11-2017/17

....................................................................................................................................................144

Attached Table 25, China Cottonseed Meal Supply-Demand Balance Sheet,

2010/11-2017/17 .......................................................................................................................144

Attached Table 26, China DDGS Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010-2018 ......................144

Attached Table 27, China Fish Meal Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010-2018 ................145

Attached Table 28, China Lysine Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010-2018 ......................145

Attached Table 29, China DL-Methionine Supply-Demand Balance Sheet, 2010-2018 .......145


Independ • Objective • Forward Looking of 20

Chapter One 2017 China Feed Industry Overview and 2018

Prospects

1 2017 Industrial Feed Production in China

1.1 China’s Industrial Feed Output Increased to About 210 Million Tons in 2017,

slightly up about 0.5% Year on Year

Influenced by environmental pressure, 2017 China’s industrial feed output stabilized relatively,

around 210 million MT, up 0.5% year on year. Of which pig and aqua feed output ascended,

but poultry and ruminant feed output both descended.

Figure 1, Variation in China’s Industrial Feed Production, 2008-2017

123

137

148

162

181

194 193 197 200

209 210

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Unit: Million MT

Data Source: MOA, predicted data of 2017

In 2017, industrial feed output in top 2 provinces: Guangdong and Shandong both were

upward of 25 million MT; there were 9 provinces whose output ranged at 10-20 million MT,

accounting for 65.0% of the total.



Map 1, Distribution of Industrial Feed Output by Province in 2017

Data Source: MOA, predicted data of 2017

………………..

3.2 Analysis on Large Feed Enterprise Groups

3.2.1 New Hope Liuhe

New Hope, the biggest feed company in the domestic, is gradually perfecting the whole

industrial chain “feed production-livestock farming-slaughter/processing”, but every link of

industrial chain has not formed a complete set, especially the links of hog farming and meat

product processing have the problem of a shortage of capacity. Through “company + farm

household”, contract farmers and integration farming, New Hope’s hog production reached

2.4 million heads in 2017 and was expected to be upward of 3.5 million heads in 2018. Hog

farming still is distributed in several predominant areas such as Bohai, West Shandong, North

Suzhou, West Guangdong and Guangxi. It planned to achieve hog production at 18 million



heads in 2021.

In 2017, New Hope planned to increase farming scale in order to boost internal demand.

2017 feed sales volume was estimated to be 15.53 million MT, up 4.3% year on year, of which

the sales volume for direct supply and internal use took up nearly 30%.

When building hog farming in the domestic, New Hope is also increasing investment in

farming projects overseas. It was expected that the total investment of New Hope Group in

hog farming would reach 8.67 billion RMB in 2018, and after being put into operation, hog

production would be upward of 6.3 million heads.

Figure 10, Variation in Feed Sales Volume of New Hope Liuhe Group, 2010-2017

12.50

15.40 16.86

15.39 15.71

14.49 14.89 15.53

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Unit: Million MT

Source: BOABC Database

………….



Chapter Two 2017 China Corn Market Analysis and 2018

Prospects

6 2017 China’s Corn Market Analysis and 2018 Forecast

6.1 Analysis on Corn Policies

6.1.1 “Market-Oriented Purchase + Subsidy” Ensured Smooth Running of Corn Market

Since that the policy of corn purchase for temporary storage was canceled and the policy

“market-set prices and separation between prices and subsidies” was carried out in 2016,

corn prices have ended the increasing trend in the last several years and tended to stabilize.

And meanwhile, guided by the policies, 2017 corn planting areas in non-dominant areas

reduced and corn output went down slightly. The predication on an oversupply of corn was

changed, which avoids corn prices stopping decreasing and pushes to cut down corn stocks.

In 2017, the subsidies for corn farmers in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia

changed from all coverage in 2016 into appointed subsidy in key areas. The subsidy standard

is 2002 RMB/ha in Heilongjiang and 1800-3300 RMB/ha in the other three provinces.

6.1.2 Increasing Subsidies to Feed and Corn Further Processing Companies Promoted

Corn Consumption

In 2017, the government released the policy of subsidies to feed companies in the northeast

and Inner Mongolia who purchased and processed new-season corn produced in 2016. The

companies listed in the scope of enjoying subsidies are compound feed producers whose

actual feed output in 2015 was upward of 50,000 MT, purchased local corn and built own

warehouses. Corn in the scope of enjoying subsidies was warehoused in before the end of

April and finished processing before the end of June. Subsidy standards for feed companies

were the same as those for further processing companies, ranging at RMB 100-300/MT.

Calculated on the proportion (60%) of corn in compound feed, feed companies in

Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning also can gain the subsides of RMB 108/MT, RMB 120/MT and



RMB 60/MT, and the gross margin can increase by 3-4 percentage points on average.

Besides the policy of VAT exemption for feed companies, the government never releases any

subsidy policy. The release of this subsidy policy is helpful for speeding up local-processing

of new-season corn and cutting down the pressure of northeastern corn stocks. In the long

term, along with farming regions shifting to northeast and the prediction on continuation of

subsidy policy, scaled feed companies st speed up the layout of capacity in the northeast.

6.1.3 Along with Encouragement Policies for Corn Further Processing Sector, Further

Processing Capacity Would Improve Greatly

In the last ten years, corn further processing has always been the sector regulated and

restricted by policies. However, the policies for corn further processing sector have been

loosened in the last two years. At the end of 2016, the restrictions on foreign investment in

corn further processing sector were canceled; On April 17, 2017, the barriers for entry into

corn further processing industry was reduced greatly, and new corn processing projects won’t

be approved in advance except for fuel alcohol and a record management would be carried

out according to territorial principle. On June 28th, Catalogue for the Guidance of Industries

for Foreign Investment (Amended in 2017) was published officially, which canceled the

barriers for entry into fields such as corn further processing and biology liquid fuel(fuel alcohol,

bio-diesel) production. On September 13, 15 departments such as the NDRC, the Bureau of

Energy and the Ministry of Finance jointly published Program of Increasing Biological Fuel

Ethanol Production and Promoting Ethanol Gasoline for Motor Vehicles. According to the

requirements from Program, E10 ethanol gasoline for motor vehicles would have covered the

whole country by 2020. It was predicted the demand for fuel ethanol would reach 13 million

MT in 2020, and there would be a potential gap of more 10 million MT.

Stilated by a series of loosening and encouragement policies, some corn further processing

companies started to draw up a plan of capacity expansion. Newly-added corn further

processing capacity would be around 17 million MT (seen below table) in the next 2-3 years.



However, corn further processing industry has experienced an excess of capacity, the

operating rate of industry has been low for a long time and it is during the periods of cutting

down capacity and industrial consolidation. Especially for fuel ethanol companies, if there are

no governmental subsidies, the loss will be extremely huge. Though it can solve the problem

of current huge stocks temporarily by loosening the restrictions on foreign entry into corn

further processing industry, yet grain still would be in a status of a tight supply for the long

term. Along with the rationalizing of corn supply and demand relation, the problem of an

excess of corn further processing capacity would be reappear and new projects possibly

would be in trouble of a loss.

6.1.4 Temporarily-Stored Corn Auction Totaled 57 Million MT, which Achieved Policy

Effects

A high trading volume of temporarily-stored corn auction relieved the pressure of stocks

effectively. Since that auction was launched officially in May, corn trading volume has

accumulatively exceeded 57 million MT, and temporarily-stored corn stocks decreased to

below 180 million MT.

Judging from the structure of trading, the trading volume of corn produced in 2012 and ago

approached to 2 million MT, and the trading volume of corn produced in 2013 was around 30

million MT. Namely, corn whose storage time was overdue has almost been traded, which

avoids the loss of storage.

The auction of temporarily-stored corn in 2017 showed the features “high trading volume and

a low rate of warehouse-out. Controlling auction price and the pace of warehouse-out

effectively not only met the demand for corn but also stabilized market price.

。。。。。。。。。。



Chapter Three 2017 China Vegetable Protein Feed Market Analysis

and 2018 Prospects

7 2017 China Vegetable Protein Feed Market Analysis and 2018

Prospects

7.1 2017 Vegetable Protein Feed Production

7.1.1 Vegetable Protein Feed Output up 7% Year on Year

Main vegetable protein feed products in China include soybean meal, rapeseed meal,

cottonseed meal, peanut meal and DDGS.

From 2008 to 2017, vegetable protein feed output ascended rapidly, from 47 million MT to 90

million MT, and the annual average compound growth rate was 9.7%. Of which 2017 output

increased by 6.8% from 2016.

An increase in soybean meal output was the main reason for the growth in vegetable protein

feed output.

Figure 44, Variation in China’s Vegetable Protein Feed Output, 2008-2017

Source: BOABC Database



About BOABC (CNagri.com)

BOABC——As leader in China's modern agriculture service industry, BOABC was established in 1996, by

virtue of nearly 20 years' accumulation in China's agriculture and food industry, as well as our experience

in industry data, intelligence , information gathering and analysis, integration of resources for agriculture

and food related enterprises, institutions, investors, consumers. Our services including agricultural

research, consulting service, media, marketing, private equity investment, financial consultants, public

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enterprises of all types and institutional clients in understanding the rapid development of China's

agriculture and food industry, and help them to create greater business value.

。

Related Reports

China Grains weekly Market Report

China Animal Husbandry weekly Market Report

China Corn Industry Analysis and Forecast Report

China Pig Industry Analysis and Forecast Report

China Broiler Industry Analysis and Forecast Report

China Corn Market Review and Outlook

Chinese industrial feed industry Atlas (2014)

Chinese Agricultural Commodity Yearbook (2015)

Special Survey Service

With 20 years of industry research experience, BOABC is China's best data, information,

consulting service provider in agricultural and food fields. We have successfully provided

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kinds of special research services including industrial special subject research, market

research, strategy consulting, feasibility study on fund-raising investment alternative before

listing, regional planning, business plans and so on.

Typical Cases:

In 2000, Chinese pig feed Market Research Report for Ajinomoto;

In 2005, Chinese corn processing industry development trend analysis and the

development path of research project for COFCO;

In 2008, Chinese sweet corn processing industry research for Seminis;

In 2009, Chinese feed industry and the integration of enterprise research report for CJ;

In 2010, Pig breeding and feed dealer research project;

In 2011, Nutritional supplements premix research needs in food industry for Lekang Ruide;

In 2011, China's corn imports Research Project Proposal for ADM;

In 2013, Chinese feed additive premix production industry data and business conditions for

cargill;

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