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An Update on the Changing Competitive Dynamics of the

Global LNG Markets

Edgar van der Meer Energy Analyst

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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• Export Market Characteristics and Challenges

• Oil Price Linkages

• Taking Advantage of Increasing Supply

• End Markets for Alaskan gas?

• How big a role will Japan play?

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

Photo: lightgraphs on flickr

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Export market characteristics and challenges

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

4September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

Source: BP

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• Nov. 19, 2009:LNG Expands in Australia

Explosive growth

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

http://www.economist.com/node/14931607/print

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• Jul. 27, 2013Australia’s gas explorers (I)

The Next Qatar?The cost of exploiting Australia’s new-found gas supplies is Soaring

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21582272-cost-exploiting-australias-new-found-gas-supplies-soaring-next-qatar/print

7September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Transportation

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

Photo: kenhodge13 on Flickr

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Oil Price Linkages

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Source, BP/NRG Expert

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Source: EIA

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Taking advantage of increased supply

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Natural Gas Consumption/Production

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

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1980

1981

1982

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1984

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1988

1989

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1991

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2001

2002

2003

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2008

2009

2010

Consumption Production

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End markets for Alaskan Gas

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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• Associated Press:Alaska asks ConocoPhillips to reopen LNG plantSeptember 18, 2013

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Asia vs. World electricity generation capacity

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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How big a role will Japan play?

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

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Source: NRG Expert

September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

19September 18, 2013 9th Annual Alaska Oil and Gas Congress

http://www.nrgexpert.com/9th-annual-alaska-oil-and-gas-delegate-report/