AN OVERVIEW OF THE MAINE ECONOMY · James Breece February 2016 The Maine Economy Page 2 1. Economic...

ANOVERVIEWOFTHEMAINEECONOMY

Per Capita Personal Income, 2014 (BEA)

JamesBreeceSchoolofEconomics

February2016

JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page1

ANOVERVIEWOFTHEMAINEECONOMYThisdocumentisacollectionofdataandgraphsgeneratedbyleadingexpertsandgovernmentagencies.TogethertheyportraythecurrentstateoftheMaineeconomyandexposefundamentalchangesthatareinfluencingtheeconomy’sfuture.

Summary

1. EconomicMomentumandOutlooko Currentindicatorsshowmildeconomicgrowth,whichisexpectedto

continue2. EconomicActivity

o Economicoutputranks46inthecountry,andoutputperworkerranks48

o PerCapitaPersonalIncomegrew3%in2014andranks33inthenation

o Thereisadisconnectbetweenincomegrowthandemploymentgrowth

o MainehasexperiencedaLOSTDECADEintermsofemployment3. DemographicTrends

o Mainehastheoldestpopulationinthecountryo Demographicchangeswillplaceaddedpressureonlabormarket

gaps,healthcareandpublicservices4. Manufacturing

o Likethenation,Maineistransitioningawayfrommanufacturingactivitiestowardsserviceactivities

5. LaborMarketCharacteristicso Growthinlowwageservicesectorjobso Althoughunemploymentrateshavefallen,underemploymentrates

haveremainedstubbornlyhigho Householdshavehighratesofbeingmulti-jobholders,selfemployed,

andemployedbysmallbusinesses6. InternationalTrade

o PlaysasignificantroleintheMaineeconomy7. SocioeconomicIssues

o Mainehasahighrateofimpoverishedchildrenandpeopleneedingassistance

o Drugabuseinontherise8. BusinessClimateIssues

o Mainehasseriousburdenstoovercome,butalsohassignificantadvantagesalreadyinplace


1.EconomicMomentumandOutlook

1.1MAINEECONOMICINDICATORS

• RealGrossDomesticProducto Increased1.0%inthesecondquarterof2015

• PersonalIncomeo Grew3.5%inthefirstthreequartersof2015

• WageandSalaryIncomeo Grewover3.3%inthefirstthreequartersof2015

• Employmento Mainehasrecoveredabout23,000jobssince2008

• Unemploymento Unemploymentrateisnowabout4%;downfromover8%

1.2FORECAST

Calendar Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0

Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3

Wage and Salary Income (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6

CPI (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 1.6 0.0 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.3 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 1.6 0.1 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.3

ConsensusEconomicForecastingCommission(February1,2016)

• Forecastcallsforcontinuedmildgrowth


2.EconomicActivity

2.1GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT

• MEGDPin2014was$54.3billionandranked46thintheUS• MEGDPin2004was$44.6billionandranked42ndintheUS

DataSource:BEA

• MERealGDPin2014contracted0.1%,theUSGDPexpanded2.2%• CompoundAnnualGrowthRateofRealGDP:2004-2014

o ME:-0.3o US:1.3


2.2VALUEADDEDECONOMICACTIVITYRealGPD/employment=valueofoutputperworker

• Maineranks48inthenation(followedbyVermontandMontana)• Relative value added economic activity representsMaine’s competitiveness

tootherstates

CT


2.3PERCAPITALPERSONALINCOMEPerCapitalPersonalIncomeincludesothersourcesofincomethatareunrelatedtooutput(i.e.,capitalgains,interest,rent,andtransferpayments)

PERCAPITAPERSONALINCOME20142014:

o ME$40,745;US$46,049 MEShareofU.S.o ME3%growth;US3.6%(nominal)o MEranked33inthecountryo MEis88%oftheU.S.

2004:

o ME$31,762o MEranked28inthecountry

Maine’sPerCapitaPersonalIncomeisnotkeepingpacewiththerestofthenation.


2.4EMPLOYMENT

• Foureconomicgrowthperiods:o 1980’s:Maineoutpacedthenationo Late1990’s:Mainematchedthenationo Early2000’s:Maineunderperformedo Currently:Maineunderperforms

• Threeeconomicdeclines:o Early1990’s:drasticforMEandUSo Early2000’s:mildo 2008-10:drasticforMEandUS

• Mainehasnotmadeupforthelossinjobsfromthepeakin2008• Maine’semploymentisnotgrowingatthepaceofthenation• Maine’s“LOSTDECADE”:2000-Present

AstructuralchangeinMaine…adisconnectbetweenincomeandemployment(causedbydemographics,technology,competition,andtransitiontowardsservices)


3. DemographicTrends3.1UNDERLYINGTRENDS

The prime working-age population is declining… and we’re already the oldest state in the nation

(projected population change by age group, 2010 to 2020)

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Proj

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ange

We no longer have positive natural change, a trend that is expected to worsen as baby boomers advance in age.

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,0001

95

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19

55

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60

19

65

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70

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Natural Change (right scale)

Births (left scale)

Deaths (left scale)


• Thoseofworkingagewillhavetosupportalargernumberofpeoplenotintheworkforce

3.2REGIONALIMPLICATIONS

• Maine’spopulationhastheoldestmedianageinthecountry;42.7years• Severalcountiesexperiencesignificantdeclines:Hancock,Lincoln,and

Piscataquis• TheagingofMaine’spopulationwillplacecontinuedpressureon:

o Laborforcegapso Healthandpublicserviceso Statebudgets

Observed Total Percent Change2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2010-2030

Androscoggin 107,675 110,410 112,765 114,848 116,622 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 8.3%Aroostook 71,723 70,883 70,059 69,125 67,923 -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% -1.7% -5.3%Cumberland 281,386 284,273 286,850 288,910 290,101 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 3.1%Franklin 30,711 30,501 30,163 29,779 29,337 -0.7% -1.1% -1.3% -1.5% -4.5%Hancock 54,360 53,106 51,760 50,323 48,745 -2.3% -2.5% -2.8% -3.1% -10.3%Kennebec 122,131 121,675 121,085 120,238 118,930 -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -1.1% -2.6%Knox 39,705 40,280 40,818 41,252 41,516 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 4.6%Lincoln 34,379 33,143 31,888 30,597 29,158 -3.6% -3.8% -4.0% -4.7% -15.2%Oxford 57,739 57,514 57,189 56,774 56,194 -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -1.0% -2.7%Penobscot 153,838 153,750 155,081 156,350 157,493 -0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 2.4%Piscataquis 17,545 16,956 16,366 15,753 15,091 -3.4% -3.5% -3.7% -4.2% -14.0%Sagadahoc 35,205 35,157 35,011 34,772 34,435 -0.1% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -2.2%Somerset 52,233 51,642 50,922 50,069 49,008 -1.1% -1.4% -1.7% -2.1% -6.2%Waldo 38,801 38,763 38,582 38,224 37,662 -0.1% -0.5% -0.9% -1.5% -2.9%Washington 32,798 32,472 32,083 31,637 31,065 -1.0% -1.2% -1.4% -1.8% -5.3%York 197,150 199,299 200,988 202,171 202,471 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 2.7%Maine 1,327,379 1,329,823 1,331,607 1,330,821 1,325,751 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.1%

Projections Percent change from previous period

6

Town projections use linear regression analysis to estimate a constant rate of growth for each town’s share of their county population between 1990 and 2010 or 2000 and 2010, whichever historical time period produces the regression with the slope closest to zero. This growth rate is then extrapolated into the future, using county population projections to project the population for each town in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. The town population projections thus rest on the assumption (among many others, including those upon which the county population projections are based) that relative growth rates of towns in a given county will continue into the future. Projections Due to recent population trends, the projections show most counties declining in population over the next two decades. Only four counties are projected to see population increase between 2010 and 2015: Androscoggin, Cumberland, Knox, and York. By 2030, these four counties plus Penobscot, which begins seeing population growth following 2015, are the only ones to have experienced population growth compared to 2010. When the counties are aggregated to a statewide level, Maine is projected to grow through 2020, after which point the population is expected to decline. As discussed earlier, these projections are highly dependent on current life expectancy and migration rates. Increases in life expectancy and in-migration could result in higher population counts in the future. By 2030, the baby boomers will be between 66 and 84 years old. The population pyramids below compare the 2010 population with the 2030 population projection. As the baby boomers continue to age, the population pyramid will become top-heavy, with a larger elderly population and smaller youth population. In addition, because women statistically live longer than men, Maine’s female-to-male ratio will increase over time.

2010

Population Pyramids of Maine

2030Percent of Total Population

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 45 - 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485+

Male FemaleMale Female

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Male Female

Baby Boomers

Baby Boomers


3.3LABORMARKETIMPLICATIONS

• Givendemographictrendsandcurrentlaborforceparticipationratesforvariousagegroups,employmentgrowthmanynotfullyregainallthejobslostsince2008

• Couldconstrainfutureeconomicgrowth

Based on our age structure and rates of labor force attachment among age groups, it will be difficult to meet

the CEFC’s April jobs forecast

580,000

590,000

600,000

610,000

620,000

630,000Ja

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Jan

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Nonfarm Payroll Jobs

CEFC April Forecast

Alternative Based on Population and Participation by Age Group


4.MANUFACTURING• ThedeclineinemploymentwithasteadyGDPcontributionisadirectresultof

hightechnologyautomation–alsoknownaslaborsavingtechnology-whichisnecessarytoremaincompetitive

• SomeofMaine’straditionalindustries(paper,leather,andtextiles)arebeingreplacedwithnewemergingindustries(electronics)

Phone (207) 623-7900 TTY 1-800-794-1110 FAX (207) 287-2947 www.maine.gov/labor/cwri

Page 2 of 10

40

50

60

70

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90

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Jobs

in T

hous

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Mill

ions

Manufacturing gross domestic product was little changed while the number of jobs fell 37 percent between 2000 and 2011

(GDP adjusted for inflation)

Gross Domestic Product Jobs

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

0.4%

0.6%

1.1%

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

2.8%

2.9%

3.9%

4.1%

5.8%

8.1%

9.6%

12.4%

12.7%

14.1%

15.2%

0.7%

2.4%

1.9%

2.0%

1.7%

4.9%

5.3%

1.5%

4.0%

3.7%

2.5%

7.4%

7.7%

11.8%

8.7%

34.9%

1.0%

Primary Metals

Electrical Equipment, Appliance, &Components

Furniture & Related Products

Printing & Related Support Activities

Nonmetallic Mineral Products

Textile Mills & Textile Product Mills

Apparel & Leather and AlliedProducts

Miscellaneous

Machinery

Plastics & Rubber Products

Chemicals

Wood Products

Fabricated Metal Products

Transportation Equipment

Food & Beverage & Tobacco Products

Paper

Computer & Electronic Products

While there was little change in manufacturing GDP between 2000 and 2010, industry shares changed

(percent share of manufacturing GDP, sorted by 2010 share)

2000 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

ManufacturingwagesinMaineare19.5%

higherthannon-manufacturingwages(2013)


5.LABORMARKETCHARACTERISTICS5.1EMPLOYMENTANDWAGES

Maine Employment and Wages

2012

Industry Description

Average Employment

Average Wages

Total - All Ownerships 583,193 38,601 Total - Private 486,557 38,075 Goods-Producing 82,618 46,823 Natural Resources and Mining 6,303 35,594 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 6,109 35,037 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 194 53,107 Construction 25,592 42,436 Manufacturing 50,723 50,432 Durable Goods Manufacturing 27,064 50,363 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 23,660 50,512 Service-Providing 403,939 36,285 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 117,275 31,600 Retail Trade 81,209 24,423 Transportation and Warehousing 14,978 36,565 Utilities 1,628 74,325 Information 7,882 44,173 Financial Activities 30,029 55,821 Education and Health Services 112,347 41,063 Leisure and Hospitality 61,620 17,219 Other Services 16,533 27,960 Unclassified 77 60,311 Total Gov't 96,636 41,253 Total - Federal Gov't 14,462 66,889 Total - State Gov't 23,474 40,115 Total - Local Gov't 58,699 35,392

• Maine’semploymentisconcentratedintheservice-providingindustriesandnotinthehigherpayinggoods-producingindustries


5.2EMPLOYMENTCHANGESANDLOSES

Changesinjobs:Dec2007to2012(MDOL)

• Maine’seconomycontinuestoshiftawayfromthegoods-producingindustriesandintothelowerpayingservice-providingindustries

5.3UNEMPLOYMENT

• Participationratesarefalling• Laborforceisfalling

Jobs in labor-intensive sectors involved in making, moving, or selling products are way down. Gains have primarily been in human capital

intensive sectors. Many displaced workers do not have the education or experience to qualify for jobs in growing sectors. This

mismatch between job seeker qualifications and needs of hiring employers is an impediment that should be considered when

forecasting job growth. (Change in jobs, Dec 2007 to present)

-9,000

-5,100 -5,000 -3,900

-2,600 -1,700 -1,200 -800 -100

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Relatedtoanagingworkforce


• Unemploymentiscenteredontheyounganduneducated• Educationisthekeytoemploymentandeconomicgrowth

…Unemployment rates only reflect part of non-employment. Those without post-secondary education are less likely to be

in the labor force, as are those under 25 and over 55 (Jobless people not looking for work are not in the labor force)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Shar

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Pop

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Age

25+

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011

Not in Labor Force Unemployed Employed

Unemployment is highest among those without post-secondary education and young people…

(2011 average unemployment rates in Maine)

9.0% 7.0%

13.9%

8.9% 6.7%

2.8%

20.5%

16.2%

8.5% 6.3% 6.6%

4.6% 5.5%


5.4UNDEREMPLOYMENTRATES5.5SMALLBUSINESSES

• Smallbusinesses(<500employees)represent97%ofallemployersandemploy58.7%ofallprivate-sectorworkers

• Onaverage2,000newbusinessesareestablishedeachyear;withonly50%ofthemsurvivingafterfiveyears

UnderemploymentRates

2006 2010 2013Q2US 8.20% 16.70% 14.30%ME 8.20% 15.20% 14.20%

Employmentsituationisinsufficientinsomeimportantwayfortheworker,forexampleholdingapart-timejobdespitethedesireforfull-timework.

Currently12.0%11.9%


5.6MULTIPLE-JOBHOLDERS

• ManyMaineworkersholdmultiplejobs–eitherbychoiceornecessity–atalmosttwicethenationalrate


5.7SELF-EMPLOYMENT

• Maineismorereliantontheself-employedthanisthenation

Page 1 of 4

RReesseeaarrcchh BBrriieeff Center for Workforce Research and Information

August 2011

Self-Employment in Maine Self-employment is an important source of jobs in Maine. About 66,000 workers said their primary job was unincorporated self-employment in 2010, accounting for an estimated 10.3 percent of employed residents. Nationally, the unincorporated self-employed accounted for seven percent of total employment in 2010. The Maine rate of self-employment ranged between 10 and 12 percent in the 2000s, well above the national rate.

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Maine unincorporated self-employment rates well above national rates

(self-employment as percent of total employment)

U.S. Maine

Published estimates of self-employment for Maine from the Current Population Survey (CPS) include only total counts of the unincorporated self-employed from 2000 to 2010. Unpublished (CPS) and American Community Survey (ACS) data in this brief comes from the Integrated Census Public Use Microdata Series. These data are subject to sampling error and detailed estimates must be viewed with caution.

The incorporated self-employed are counted as wage and salary workers in published employment estimates since they are legally employees of their own business. According to unpublished CPS data, incorporated self-employment in Maine accounted for a little over 4 percent of total employment in 2010.

SELF-EM PLOYMEN T H AS DECLINED SLI GH TLY While self-employment rates move up and down, over the course of several years the official unincorporated rate has declined slightly. Between 1994 and 2000 the rate of unincorporated self-employment in Maine averaged 11.8 percent compared to 10.3 percent for 2001 to 2010. The incorporated self-employment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent.

11.8%

3.5%

10.3%

3.5%

Unincorporated self-employed Incorporated self-employed

The Maine self-employment rate shifted downward in the 2000s

1994-2000 2001-2010

Phone (207) 623-7900 TTY 1-800-794-1110 FAX (207) 287-2947 www.maine.gov/labor/cwri

Page 4 of 4

While the self-employed are in a variety of occupations, management, professional, and related, and construction, extraction, maintenance, and repair occupations accounted for 50 percent of the self-employed, reflecting industry concentration.

Over 40 percent of those employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining; about 30 percent of construction workers; and almost 30 percent of the workers in other services, which contains a variety of industries such as barber shops and shoe repair, were self-employed.

Maine Self-Employment Rates, 2007-2009 AverageIndustry Rate(%)

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, and Mining 40.9Construction 30.0Manufacturing 3.3Wholesale Trade 4.7Retail Trade 4.6Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 5.4Information 4.9Financial Activities 7.2Professional and Business Services 17.3Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Services 4.2Leisure and Hospitality Service 5.5Other Services 29.1

Major occupations with the highest self-employment rates were farming, fishing, forestry and logging (46 percent) and construction (24 percent).

4.9%

5.5%

7.4%

11.6%

23.9%

46.4%

Sales and Office

Production, Transportation, and Material Moving

Management, Professional, and Related

Service

Construction, Extraction, Maintenance, and Repair

Farming, Fishing, Forestry, and Logging

Almost 50 percent of farming, fishing, forestry, and logging workers were self-employed

(2007-2009 average)

IN SUMM ARY Nearly one in seven Maine workers were self-employed in 2009, either incorporated or unincorporated, compared to about one in nine nationally. While a slight decline in self-employment was recorded during the sluggish labor market of the 2000s, the self-employed remain an important part of the Maine economy.

Source: All unpublished CPS and ACS data developed using the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Version 5.0 (Machine-readable database). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2010.


6.INTERNATIONALTRADE

• Exportsrepresentabout6%ofMaine’seconomy• Maine’slargestexportsarepulpandpapertoCanadaandsemiconductorsto

Malaysia• Foreign-ownedcompaniesplayasignificantroleinMaine’seconomy

$156$$

$7,900$$

$3,900$$

$1,100$$

$1,000$$

$900$$

Other$$

Manufacturing$

Finance$&$Insurance$

Wholesale$Trade$

Prof.,$Sci.$&$Tech.$Services$

Informakon$

ForeignIOwned$Companies$Employ$a$Total$of$30,400$Maine$Workers$Across$Many$Industries$

!

FOREIGN$INVESTMENT$IN$MAINE$CREATES$JOBS$

Foreign6owned!companies!invest!significant!amounts!of!capital!to!open!or!expand!facilities!in!Maine!every!year.!ForeignIowned$companies$from$around$the$world$employ$tens$of$thousands$of$workers!in!Maine,!including:!

• 7,200$by$companies$based$in$Canada$

$

• 2,200$by$companies$based$in$Switzerland$$

• 1,900$by$companies$based$in$Germany$$

• 1,800$by$companies$based$in$the$United$Kingdom$

$

• 1,000$by$companies$based$in$Japan$

Selected$ForeignIOwned$Companies$Employing$Workers$in$Maine$!

Company$ $ $ $ Industry$$$ $$ $ $ $ $$$$$$$$Country!Boralex! Power!Distribution!Services! Canada!Dragon!Products!Company! Environmental!Consulting!Services! Spain!Holiday!Inn! Hotel!Services! United!Kingdom!JWT!BOOM! Advertising!Services! United!Kingdom!McCain!Foods!USA! Food!Product!Manufacturing! Canada!Onesteel!Recycling!Inc.! Steel!Product!Manufacturing! Australia!Portland!Natural!Gas!Transmission! Power!Distribution!Services! Canada!Rumford!Power! Power!Generation! Canada!Sappi!Fine!Paper!North!America! Paper!Manufacturing! South!Africa!Stantec,!Inc.! Architecture,!Engineering!&!Design!Services! Canada!TD!Bank! Financial!Services! Canada!Willis!North!America!Inc.! Insurance!Services! United!Kingdom!

$ Contact:$David!Thomas,!Business!Roundtable,!202.496.3262,[email protected]$!

www.brt.org/trade!

• Maine’s!top!export!market!for!goods!and!services!is!Canada.!Other!leading!markets!include!Malaysia!and!China.!

!

• Among!Maine’s!top!export!markets!for!goods,!Malaysia$has!grown$the!fastest!at$24$percent$per$year!since!2002.!Exports!to!Finland!grew!by$21$percent$per$year,!while!exports!to!Germany!grew!by$14$percent$per$year.!!

• Maine’s!goods$exports$have$grown$two$and$a$half$times$faster$than$state$GDP!since!2002.!The!average!annual!export!growth!during!this!period!was!7.6!percent,!while!the!average!annual!state!GDP!growth!was!2.9!percent.!!

• Goods!exports!accounted!for!6.5$percent$of$Maine’s$state$GDP$in!2011.!!

MAINE$COMPANIES$EXPORT$THROUGHOUT$THE$WORLD$

CANADA$Merchandise!Exports:!$1.2!billion$Services!Exports:!$144!million!

$

MALAYSIA$Merchandise!Exports:!$467!million$

Services!Exports:!$4.9!million!$

CHINA$Merchandise!Exports:!$247!million$Services!Exports:!$55.3!million!

$

In!2012,!Maine!companies!sold!their!products!in!187$international$markets.!!!

Top$Export$Markets*$!

SOUTH$KOREA$Merchandise!Exports:!$75.7!million$Services!Exports:!$35.6!million!

$

BELGIUM$Merchandise!Exports:!$63.3!million$

Services!Exports:!$18.7!million!$

JAPAN$Merchandise!Exports:!$126!million$Services!Exports:!$95.8!million!

$


www.brt.org/trade!

*Goods#data#are#for#2012;#services#data#are#for#2011#

MAINE$BUSINESSES$GROW$WITH$EXPORTS$

Maine!ranked!46th!in!the!United!States!in!goods$exports!in!2012,$with!an!estimated!value!of$$3.0$billion,!and!45th!in!services$exports,!with!an!estimated!value!of!$1.2$billion!in!2011.!Large!companies!account!for!59!percent!of!the!value!of!Maine’s!merchandise!exports,!with!the!rest!provided!by!small6!and!medium6sized!enterprises!(SMEs).!

Top$Goods$Exports,$2012$• Pulp,!Paper!&!Paperboard:!$604!million!• Semiconductors!&!Components:!$503!million!• Fish!&!Other!Marine!Products:!$292!million!• Aerospace!Products!&!Parts:!$269!million!• Timber!&!Logs:!$163!million!!Top$Services$Exports,$2011$• Travel:!$530!million!• Insurance:!$82.6!million!• Industrial!Processes!Royalties:!$79.6!million!!

Leading$Export$Products$!Paper!Products!(including!pulp!and!paperboard)!was!Maine’s!leading!export!category!in!2012,!accounting!for!21.4!percent!of!total!merchandise!exports.!

• Maine!ranks$among$the$top$20$state$exporters$in$nine$industries,!including!second!in!timber!and!logs!($163!million),!fifth!in!fish!and!other!marine!products!($292!million),!11th!in!pulp,!paper!and!paperboard!($604!million),!and!12th!in!prepared!seafoods!($2.3!million).!

!

• !While!Maine!is!America’s$43rd$largest$exporter!of!agricultural$products,!it!ranks!among!the!top!10!exporters!of!aquaculture$products,!berries,!and!potatoes.!

!

• One!of!Maine’s!fastest!growing!export!categories!is!other$fabricated$metals,!which!has!increased!by!19!percent!per!year!since!2002.!In!2012,!exports!of!these!products!reached!$43.0!million.!

$1,196$$

$151$$

No.$of$SME$$$Exporters$

No.$of$Large$Company$Exporters$

89$Percent$of$Maine$Exporters$Are$SmallI$or$MediumISized$Companies$


www.brt.org/trade!


7.SocioeconomicIssues7.1PUBICHEALTH

2008 MAINE STATE PROFILE of SELECTED PUBLIC HEALTH INDICATORSMaine Center for Disease Control and Prevention/DHHS

MORE DEMOGRAPHICS:Percent and Count

DISTRICT COMPARISONS

Aroostook± Marginof Error

Central± Margin of Error

Cumberland± Margin of Error

Downeast± Margin of Error

Midcoast± Margin of Error

Penquis± Margin of Error

Western± Margin of Error

York± Margin of Error

MAINEState± Margin of Error

UNITEDSTATES

Median Annual Household Income [2004]

$ 32,629 $ 36,147 $ 49,870 $ 33,834 $ 41,690 $ 34,717 $ 36,670 $ 48,363 $ 41,287 $ 44,334

Families Living in Poverty (all ages, percent) [2004]

14.9(±0.3)

10,918

13.1(±0.2)

22,497

9.0(±0.1)

24,708

12.6(±0.2)

10,943

10.7 (±0.2)

16,142

13.2(±0.2)

21,715

12.4(±0.2)

23,915

9.0(±0.1)

17,963

11.3(±0.1)

148,80111.5

Children on Free or Reduced Lunch Program (percent of enrolled school children) [2005]

47.7(±1.2)

5,551

41.0(±0.8)

11,613

25.9(±0.5)

10,483

41.9(±1.1)

5,037

35.9(±0.8)

7,471

39.1(±0.8)

10,068

45.8(±0.7)

13,466

27.6(±0.7)

7,547

36.4(±0.3)

71,23617.5

Adults with Lifetime Educational Attainment Less Than High School (percent) [2000]

23.1(±0.4)

11,868

16.1(±0.3)

18,378

9.8(±0.1)

17,900

15.3(±0.3)

9,185

13.0 (±0.2)

13,146

14.9 (±0.2)

16,073

18.6(±0.2)

23,561

13.5(±0.2)

17,177

14.6(±0.1)

127,419

9.4(±0.1)

Single-Parent Households with Children <18 years (percent) [2000]

7.7 (±0.3)

2,323

10.4 (±0.2)

7,007

8.4 (±0.2)

9,117

8.8 (±0.3)

3,157

9.0 (±0.2)

5,372

9.5 (±0.2)

6,197

10.4 (±0.2)

7,887

9.1 (±0.2)

6,788

9.2 (±0.1)

47,8487.2

Householders ≥ 65 Living Alone (percent) [2000]

13.1 (±0.4)

3,977

10.5 (±0.2)

7,145

10.2 (±0.2)

11,015

12.2 (±0.3)

4,386

11.0 (±0.4)

6,549

10.4 (±0.2)

6,829

10.9 (±0.2)

8,317

9.7 (±0.2)

7,233

10.7 (±0.1)

55,4519.2

People Who Speak a Language Other Than English (percent of those >5 years old) [2000]

24.1 (±0.3)

16,880

6.8 (±0.1)

10,735

5.9 (±0.1)

14,888

4.3 (±0.1)

3,498

3.5 (±0.1)

4,798

4.4 (±0.1)

6,818

11.1 (±0.2)

19,771

9.4 (±0.1)

16,578

7.8(±0.1)

82,51217.9

Adults With a Disability (percent) [2006]

24.6 (±7.3)

6,924

23.0 (±4.3)

33,513

23.0 (±3.9)

35,594

28.5 (±4.3)

17,830

23.0 (±3.3)

25,250

30.4 (±4.9)

32,729

20.0 (±3.7)

38,280

21.8 (±4.3)

32,913

23.8 (±1.6)

237,91015.1

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7.2DRUGABUSE

131motorvehiclerelateddeathsin2014


7.3PUBLICSUPPORT

Consistsof:

• Retirementanddisabilityinsurancebenefits• Medicalbenefits• Incomemaintenancebenefits• Unemploymentinsurancecompensation• Veterans’benefits

Drivenbysocio-economicneedsandanagingpopulation

Page 4

Quarterly economic Report

First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth October 2013Personal Income in Maine

�Ɛ�ƚŚĞ�ĮŐƵƌĞ�ƐŚŽǁƐ͕�ŽǀĞƌ�ƟŵĞ͕�ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ�ƉĂǇŵĞŶƚƐ�ŚĂǀĞ�ĐŽŶƐƟƚƵƚĞĚ�ĂŶ�ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ŽĨ�DĂŝŶĞ Ɛ͛�ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů�ŝŶĐŽŵĞ͘��dŚŝƐ�ŝƐ�ƉĞƌŚĂƉƐ�ƚŽ�ďĞ�ĞǆƉĞĐƚĞĚ�ŐŝǀĞŶ�ƚŚĞ�ƐƚĂƚĞ Ɛ͛�ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ŽĨ�ĞůĚĞƌůǇ�ĂŶĚ�ůŽǁĞƌͲŝŶĐŽŵĞ�ƌĞƐŝĚĞŶƚƐ͘��EĂƟŽŶĂůůǇ͕ �ƚŚĞ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ŽĨ�ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů�ŝŶĐŽŵĞ�ĨƌŽŵ�ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ�ƉĂǇŵĞŶƚƐ�ƌĞŵĂŝŶĞĚ�ƌĞůĂƟǀĞůǇ�ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ�ĨƌŽŵ�ϮϬϬϮ�ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ�ϮϬϬϳ͘�dŚĞ�ϮϬϬϴͲϮϬϬϵ�ƌĞĐĞƐƐŝŽŶ�ƐĂǁ�ĂŶ�ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞ�ŝŶ�ƚŚĞ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ŽĨ�ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů�ŝŶĐŽŵĞ�ĨƌŽŵ�ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ�ƉĂǇŵĞŶƚƐ�ĂŶĚ�Ă�ĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞ�ŝŶ�ŝŶĐŽŵĞ�ĨƌŽŵ�ĞĂƌŶŝŶŐƐ͘�EĂƟŽŶĂůůǇ͕ �ƐŝŶĐĞ�ϮϬϬϵ�ƚŚĞ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ŽĨ�ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů�ŝŶĐŽŵĞ�ĨƌŽŵ�ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ�ƉĂǇŵĞŶƚƐ�ŚĂƐ�ĚĞĐůŝŶĞĚ�ĂŶĚ�ƚŚĞ�ƉƌŽƉŽƌƟŽŶ�ĨƌŽŵ�ĞĂƌŶŝŶŐƐ�ŚĂƐ�ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚ͕�ƚŚŽƵŐŚ�ŝƐ�ŶŽƚ�ǇĞƚ�ďĂĐŬ�ƚŽ�ƉƌĞͲƌĞĐĞƐƐŝŽŶ�ůĞǀĞůƐ͘�DĂŝŶĞ�ŚĂƐ�ŶŽƚ�ǇĞƚ�ƐĞĞŶ�Ă�ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ�ĐŚĂŶŐĞ͘

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8.BusinessClimateIssues8.1HEALTHCARECOSTS

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8.2EnergyCosts

• Amongthestatesin2011,Mainewasrankedtenthforthehighestcostofenergy–measuredbytheexpenditurespercapita(U.S.Dept.ofEnergy)

8.3TaxBurden

2013 State Business Tax Climate Index Ranks and Component Tax Ranks

State Overall

Rank Corporate Tax Rank

Individual Income

Tax Rank Sales Tax

Rank

Unemployment Insurance Tax

Rank

Property Tax Rank

Connecticut 40 35 31 30 31 50 Maine 30 41 27 10 32 39 Massachusetts 22 33 15 17 49 47 New Hampshire 7 48 9 1 42 43 Rhode Island 46 42 37 25 50 46 Vermont 47 43 47 14 22 48 Source: Tax Foundation. OVERALL:

• Mainedoesnothaveacompetitivebusinessclimategivenitsharshwinters,distancetomarket,transportationcosts,inadequateinternet,highhealthcarecosts,highenergycosts,andarelativehightaxburden

• However,Mainedoeshaveadvantagesinworkethic,affordablehousing,accessibleairandseaports,andamajorresearchuniversity


PossibleWaystoEnergizeMaine’sEconomy:(Groupdiscussion…)

• CreativeEconomy/Innovation• LongevityEconomy• UniversityR&D• EducationalAttainment• DowntownRevitalization• AlternativeEnergy/Conservation• FarmtoTableFoodSustainability/FoodSecurity• IncreasedValue-AddedEconomicActivities/Entrepreneurship• ImprovedBusinessClimate• SupportSmallBusinesses/Self-employed• PromoteExports• RevitalizeManufacturing• MigrationandImmigration• • • •


NOTES:Disclaimer:OpinionsexpressedinthisdocumentaremineanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheUniversityofMaine.Manyofthegraphsanddatatablesaretheworksofothersandarenotpresentedhereasoriginalworkbyme.Otherwisenoted,graphsanddataarepublicallyavailableontheInternetandweregeneratedbytheMaineDepartmentofLabor,Maine’sOfficeofFiscalandProgramReview,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,MaineDevelopmentFoundation,MaineCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention/DHHS,U.S.SmallBusinessAdministration,WallStreetJournal,TaxFoundation,BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BusinessRoundtable,andMaine’sOfficeofPolicyandManagement.IcompiledthegraphsfortheGDPIndex,EmploymentIndexandValueAddedEconomicActivity.

AN OVERVIEW OF THE MAINE ECONOMY · James Breece February 2016 The Maine Economy Page 2 1. Economic...

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