Prehistoric influences over Human Behaviour in Social Gaming
An overview of current global human dimension methods ... · – Change in rules by which they...
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An overview of current global human dimension methods: integrated assessment models Brian O’Neill, NCAR Workshop on Linking Earth System Dynamics and Social System Modeling 23-25 May 2016, Boulder, Colorado
Transcript of An overview of current global human dimension methods ... · – Change in rules by which they...
Anoverviewofcurrentglobalhumandimensionmethods:integratedassessmentmodels
BrianO’Neill,NCARWorkshoponLinkingEarthSystem
DynamicsandSocialSystemModeling23-25May2016,Boulder,Colorado
WhatisIAM?
Janetos et al., 2009, DOE.
Figures from IMAGE model, from Bouwman, Kram and Klein Goldewijk, 2006.
• Global scale• Decadal to century
timescale• Insights into
questions atlevel of nation+
• Climate changemitigation, impacts,adaptation
Some factors/processesrepresented at finerresolution:
soilsclimatepopulationurban extentGDPland useemissions
ModelstructureandcomponentsiPETS
FinalGoods
EnergyAgric.
Materials
CO2 Emissions
Consumption, Investment,Government, Exports/
Imports
Final Goods Producers
Consumption & SavingsCapital & Labor
Households
Oil, Gas, Coal, ElectricityRefined Fuels,
Intermediate Goods Producers
Cropland, forestland pasture
LaborCapital
LandLaborCapital
Land
Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Products, and Materials
IIASAdownscalingofRCP-8.5NPV of Forestry vs. NPV of Agriculture
NPV forestry = f(planting costs, timber price, timber volume,rotation length, carbon benefits)
NPV agriculture = f(land suitability, population density, land price)
Grazing intensity, RCP-8.5, MESSAGE model, 2000
DecisionmakinginIAMs
BehavioralandDecision-makingProcesses
Households(regional)– Maximizeutility,givenpricesandbudgetconstraint
Producers(regional)– Maximizeprofits (minimizecosts),givenmarketclearingcondition
Producers(spatial)– Rule-based allocationoflandusetogridcells(e.g., IMAGE,GLM)– Regression-based allocationbasedonhistoricalpatterns (e.g., iPETS,
IGSM)– Explicitsimulationofprofitmaximizingdecisionsateachgridcell,
constrainedbytotalregionallanduse(e.g.,GLOBIOM)
HouseholdSurvey Data
Region 9IA Model
PET ModelRegion 1PET Model
Region 1Region 1IA Model
HH CharacteristicsLabor supplyPreferencesSubstitutionInitial capital
HH OutcomesConsumption
IncomeSavings
Characteristics by Type
Size, IncomeUrban/Rural, Age,
See van Ruijven et al., 2015, for a review.
MultipleHouseholdTypes
O’Neill et al., 2010. iPETS model.
MultipleHouseholdTypes
MITUSmodel15,000+householdsasindividualagentsImplicationsofcapandtradeschemeVariationsineffectswithingroupscanswampacross-groupeffects
Rausch et al., 2011.
ProductionData
Region 9IA Model
PET ModelRegion 1PET Model
Region 1Region 1IA Model
Industry OutcomesProduction
Demand for inputs(including land)
Industry CharacteristicsInput mix (initial)ProductivitiesProduction structure Substitution
New Types?Large vs small scale(e.g., HH production)Access to tradeSub-region(e.g., Frontier)
Characteristics by TypeProduct,
Technology, …
CouplinghumanandnaturalsystemsinIAMs
van Vuuren et al., 2012.
ApproachestocouplingExamples
THESIS
Climate model emulation
Urban, ag mgmt in ESMs
IMAGE-CNRMGCAM-CESM
GCAM-CESM(iESM)
Collins et al., 2015.
iESM result
Jones et al., 2015.
iPETSIntegratedAssessment
Model
DataHumanSystem
THESISToolboxforHuman-EarthSystem
Integration&Scaling
HumanSystem
EarthSystem
urban
agriculture
forests
Impacts
Visualization&DecisionSupport
Evaluation&UncertaintyAnalysis
Impact&AdaptationAssessment
HumanSystem
CESMCommunity
EarthSystemModel
DataEarthSystem
EarthSystem
SpatialDistribution
Properties IAMConsistency
ImpactAssessment
Population Spatialpopulation
Populationcharacteristics
Urban Spatialurbanlandcover
Buildingproperties
Building energyuse
Heat waveexposure
Agriculture Spatialaglanduse
Croptypeandmanagement
Crop yield
Forest Spatialforestrylanduse
Foresttypeandmanagement
Forestyield
TypesofTHESISTools
Impacts, 2061-2080, RCP8.5, SSP5Nine world regions
CLM
CLM Crop Modeling
Levis et al., 2016
iPETSiPETS Integrated Assessment Model
Ren et al., subm.
Yield
Crop prices
Crop land
Ren et al., 2015.
Justificationforcoupling:Landuse<->climateexample
Insufficient:Doeslandusechangeaffectclimate?Doesclimateaffectlandusedecisions?Evenifbotharetrue,couplingnotnecessarilyrequired.
Sufficient:Istheclimateeffectofaplausibleamountoflandusechangelargeenoughtocauseachangetheoriginallandusedecisionthatissubstantialcomparedtootheruncertaintiesintheproblem?
Toanswerthisquestion,thehighestprioritystepisnottocouplethemodels,especiallyifcouplingisdifficult
ProposeddirectionsDecisionmaking
– Newtypesofproducers,consumers,orotherinstitutions– Additionalscales– Changeinrulesbywhichtheyinteract
Couplinghuman-earthsystems– Systematicinvestigationofone-wayinfluences– Two-waycouplingatregionalscales– Two-waycouplingatglobalscalesfortheintrepid
Ingeneral– Identifyspecificresearchquestion,andhypothesisforwhyanewtypeofmodelorapproachisneededtoaddressit
– Considermultiplepossibleapproachestocoupling
