An introduction video to Global and Welsh climate change and mitigation http://www.youtube.com/wat

ch?v=zzjOcOcQ90U (UK gov climate change video)..\Documents\YouTube - Climate change.mov

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmheyHD3eQc (welsh impacts) ..\Documents\YouTube - Climate Change Wales - It's up to us!.mov

BBC News, 2007.www.bbc.co.uk/media/images

Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Project

Dr Reis, Severn Estuary Partnership

Dr Ballinger, Cardiff University

Ms. Hovey, Cardiff University

Prof Phillips, Swansea Metropolitan University

Ms.Taylor, Cardiff Harbour Authority

Format of workshop

The science of climate change Impacts of climate change in Wales-

example(s) Activity 1- “A Relatively Simple Web” Activity 2- “The Life and Times of Scott of

Abernewydd”. Feedback

The Science of Climate Change… This brief presentation outlines climate change projections for Wales:

Temperature, precipitation (rain, snow etc), storminess and sea level rise

It will also outline some of the causes of uncertainty when looking at our future climate

Are scientists sure about what will happen

in the future?

Temperature in the 2050s

Change to mean annual temperature

On average, Wales will be:

2.5°C warmer in the Summer

2°C warmer in the Winter

Change to summer temperature

Can you imaginethe changes to yourlife if summers were hotter?

www.climateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Rainfall in the 2050s

On average, Wales will be:

17% drier in the Summer

14% wetter in the Winter

Change to winter precipitationChange to summer precipitation

Would drier summersaffect you?

www.climateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Storminess

Key messages:

Increasing number of storms but not above levels of the 1920s

Little evidence of human impact

Little evidence of increase in intensity (how strong the storm is) or frequency (how often a storm will occur) of storms over the UK in the future

www.climateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Sea level

Cardiff 22cm

Bristol Channel 25cm

Cardigan Bay 20cm

Menai Strait (East) 20cm

Key message:

Sea level rise of

25 – 35cm during 2060-80

Uncertainty

There is much uncertainty in predicting future climate – we don’t yet know enough of the science that causes changes to the climate system

Global climate computer models (GCMs) are not yet 100% accurate – these are used to project future climate change possibilities

The climate is also naturally changing so there is some debate over the impact humans might be having

Future greenhouse gas emissions are difficult to predict

Summary

Wales is very likely to become warmer in the future during both winter and summer months

It is likely that summers will become drier and winters wetter, with more precipitation during heavy downpours

It is still very uncertain if storminess will change over Wales

Sea level is likely to rise by about 35cm during 2060-80

If rising sea levels combined with a severe storm, the impacts could be very severe

All data has been taken from the UKCP09 projections See www.climateprojections.defra.gov.uk for further details

Example of Climate Change Impact on Local Area and Adaptation Options

Activity 1…A Relatively Simple Web

Put yourselves into groups of 7. Make a circle.Ask the tallest person to name their most prized possession eg. Laptop computer, skateboard, mobile phonePerson 1 ties the end of the string to their finger. Using “word association”, throw the ball of wool to another member of the group, who will wrap the woo around their finger (not too tightly!). Repeat. Eg. Laptop…. keys… plastic…. click…clap… bang… thunder….lightening etc. Keep going until everyone has a loop around a finger on both hands.Once everyone has two loops, pull one end of the wool and see what happens…… what are your conclusions?

Activity 1…A Relatively Simple Web

Put yourselves into groups of 7. Make a circle.Ask the tallest person to name their most prized possession eg. Laptop computer, skateboard, mobile phonePerson 1 ties the end of the string to their finger. Using “word association”, throw the ball of wool to another member of the group. This person will wrap the wool around their finger. Eg. Laptop…. keys… plastic…. click…clap… bang…

thunder….lightening etc. Keep going until everyone has a loop around a finger on both hands.Once everyone has two loops, pull one end of the wool and see what happens…… what are your conclusions?

Conclusion???

EVERYTHING IS RELATED!!!

Eg. effects of human development on the natural

environment and the effect of the natural environment on

human development.

Working in your groups, imagine you are “Scott”, a 16 year old resident of Abernewydd.

Let’s explore Scott’s future……

Welcome to Abernewydd, a rural town on the coast in south Wales

intro to abernewydd film.MOD

Activity 2... “The Life and Times of Scott from Abernewydd”

What are Scott’s Options in 2010, 2030 and

2060? Read over the supporting material and complete the matrix. Think about why Scott makes these choices.(30 minutes)

1. How does Scott travel from Abernewydd to Cwtch?

2. Does Scott need to adapt his house?

3. Where does Scott’s energy (especially electricity) come from?

Are there any positive aspects to these

choices???

Questions to Consider:(20 minutes)

1. Who’s responsibility is it to influence an individual’s behaviour- their own or the government?

2. Who’s responsibility should it be to pay for house adaptation measures in 2060- individuals, communities or the government?

3. How can you take part in decision-making about transport, both locally and nationally?

4. Should it be up to us to re-locate villages for future generations or leave them to resolve their own problems?

Feedback- So what are your conclusions??? (15 minutes)

1. Transport

2. Housing adaptation

3. Energy (electricity)

What Have We Learned?

Some facts about climate change

The uncertainty associated with science

Everything is related Examples of climate

change adaptation options

Explored options for Scott’s future (not all negative!)

Thank You!

Please help us by completing and returning the questionnaire.

For more information, go to:

http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html