An Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Turkey

Sevgi Özcebe1, Vitor Silva2, Helen Crowley3, Christopher Burton4

IUSS-UME School, Pavia, ItalyUniversity of Aveiro, Aveiro, PortugalEUCENTRE, Pavia, ItalyGEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

Integrated Seismic Risk

Physical Seismic RiskProbability of damage and loss to structures

Socio-Economic VulnerabilityVulnerability of society and economy

Ankara

İzmir

İstanbul

Van

What is needed to calculate the physical risk?

Probability of ground shaking

Vulnerability of exposure elements

Elements at risk

How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake

Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Weight

Akkar & Çağnan (2010) 0.35

Akkar et al. (2014) 0.65

SHARE Seismic Source Model

Weight

Area Source Model 0.5Fault Source and

Background Model 0.2

Smoothed Seismicity 0.3

Seismic Hazard:Classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Seismic source model Ground motion model

How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake

Logic Tree Processor

Seismic Hazard Model

Source model logic tree Ground motion logic tree

Source model

Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator

Earthquake Rupture Forecast

Classical Hazard Curve Calculator

Ground Motion Prediction Equation

Hazard Curves and Maps

The resulting seismic hazard

Mean seismic hazard in Peak Ground Acceleration (g) for rock, for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

0.10 g

0.61 g

İstanbul

Ankara

Vanİzmir

East Anatolian

Fault

North Anatolian Fault

To include site effects, Vs30 proxies by Wald and Allen, 2007 is allocated

Capturing building types in Turkey

2000 Building Census,Turkish Statistical Institute

Building Density

(unit/km2)

High

Low

Frame Construction Bearing Wall/Masonry Construction

Reinforced concrete frame with infill walls

Brick Hollow concrete blocks

StoneAdobe Wood Frame Steel Frame Wood

Distribution of reinforced concrete and masonry residential buildings

Reinforced Concrete Frame

with Infill Walls

Low RiseMid Rise

High RiseBrick and Hollow

Concrete Block Masonry

Low Rise

Mid RiseStone and Adobe

Masonry

Low RiseMid Rise

İstanbul

Vanİzmir

Relating shaking intensity to building damage:Fragility curves for reinforced concrete structures

(Erberik , 2008)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)

Mid Rise

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)

Prob

abilit

y of

exc

eeda

nce

Low Rise

Relating shaking intensity to building damage:Fragility curves for masonry structures

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.10.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Peak Ground Acceleration (g)

Low-RiseMid-Rise

Brick and Hollow Concrete Block MasonryUrban Type

Adobe and Stone MasonryRural Type

(Erberik , 2008)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.20.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Peak Ground Acceleration (g)

Prob

abilit

y of

exc

eeda

nce

Transforming damage into economic loss

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Brick and Concrete Block Ma-sonry- Low RiseStone and Adobe Ma-sonry- Low RiseBrick and Concrete Block Ma-sonry- Mid Rise

Peak Ground Acceleration (g)Rep

air

Cost

/ R

epla

cem

ent

Cost

Vulnerability CurvesDamage-to-Loss Functions

Slight Moderate Collapse0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2 KOERI (2003)

Bal et al. (2007)

Rep

air

Cost

/ R

epla

cem

ent

Cost

Damage states

Fragility Curves

How the risk is calculated in OpenQuake

0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Loss

Rat

io (

%)

Hazard Model Exposure Model Physical Vulnerability Model

Loss MapsLoss CurvesEconomic loss ($)

Prob

abili

ty o

f ex

ceed

ance

in 5

0 ye

ars

Classical Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Based-Risk Calculator

How this study compares the others

Average annualized loss ratio

Loss / Value

İstanbul

Vanİzmir

Ankara

high

Average annualized economic loss

Loss ($)

İstanbul

Vanİzmir

Ankara

high

This Study(Preliminary)

AIR RMS Demircioglu (2010)

Average Annualized Loss Ratio 0.13 % 0.14% 0.09% 0.12%

What is needed to measure the socio-economic vulnerability?

Indicator Vulnerability

Female population

Increases

Population living in province and district centersPopulation under 4 years of age and over 65 years of age

Population densityAverage size of households

Renter householdsHouseholds not served by piped water systems

Population with a disabilityWorking-age population that is unemployed

Birth rateLabor force that is employed in service industries

Illiterate populationPopulation with high education completed DecreasesFemale labor force participation

What is needed to measure the socio-economic vulnerability?

Data Transformation: metrics as percentage, per capita, per unit

Data Standardization: Normalization, Min-max scaling, Z-scores

Multivariate Analysis:Data exploration, correlations

Transforming many indicators into a single index

Multivariate Analysis

Socio-Economic

Vulnerability Index

Uncorrelated

indicators

Aggregation of

uncorrelated indicators

Indicators

Transformed &

Standardized

İstanbul

Van

Socio-Economic Vulnerability for Turkey

Putting it all together: Integrated risk for Turkey

Physical Risk

Ankara

İzmir

İstanbul

Van

=Integrated

Risk

+ Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Zooming in

Physical Risk

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Integrated Risk

İstanbul

Van

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org