An Initial Assessment of the Pantawidd Pamilyang Pilipino Program- Looking at Possible Potentials...

CPBRD FORUMC O N G R E S S I O N A L P O L I C Y A N D B U D G E T R E S E A R C H D E PA R T M E N T

An InItIAl Assessment of the PAntAwId PAmIlyAng PIlIPIno ProgrAm:

lookIng At PossIble PotentIAls And PItfAlls

December 2013 No. 2013-04

Background An impact assessment of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps)the Philippine governments flagship poverty reduction programwas presented in a forum jointly organized by the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) and the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) last May 29, 2013 at the House of Representatives. Dr. Celia Reyes, Senior Fellow of the PIDS, presented the findings of their study entitled Promoting Inclusive Growth Through the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), the highlights of which are discussed in this article.

Their major findings included the following: 1) the 4Ps program leads to an increase in the school participation rate by 3.5 percentage points among children aged 6 to 14 years old; and 2) the 4Ps program does not influence the participation of children beyond the age coverage of the program, meaning there is no significant difference between the school participation rate of children aged 15 to 18 in 4Ps families and non-4Ps children (using matched samples). It should be noted that the present 4Ps coverage for 6- to 14-year-old children is intended to enable the child to finish elementary level.

A major recommendation of the study is to extend the 4Ps or harmonize it with other government programs to ensure that the children of household beneficiaries finish at least secondary education.

The study contends that this will lead to more inclusive growth and increase potential earnings of 4Ps children by at least 40%.

Overview of the Pantawid Pamilya

Implemented by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), the conditional cash transfers (CCT) program aims to provide social assistance through cash transfers to supplement the income of poor households in selected municipalities, subject to their compliance with conditionalities related to education and health.

These conditionalities are: 1) pregnant women must avail of pre- and post-natal care and be attended during childbirth by a trained health professional; 2) parents must attend family development sessions; 3) 0- to 5-year-old children must receive regular preventive health check-ups and vaccines; 4) 3- to 5-year-old children must attend day care or pre-school classes at least 85% of the time; 5) 6- to 14-year-old children must enrol in elementary or high school and must attend at least 85% of the time; and 6) 6-14-year-old children must receive de-worming pills twice a year.

The poor households were identified through the National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTS-PR). Program beneficiaries were selected based on the following: 1) residents of poorest municipalities; 2) households whose economic condition is equal to or below the provincial poverty threshold; 3) households that

An InItIAl Assessment of the PAntAwId PAmIlyAng PIlIPIno ProgrAm: lookIng At PossIble PotentIAls And PItfAlls

have children 0 to 14 years old and/or have a pregnant woman at the time of assessment; and 4) households that agree to meet conditions specified in the program. The program covers some 3.8 million households as of the first quarter in 2013.

Implementation of CCT targeting in other countries

Dr. Reyes noted that important lessons from other countries that implemented CCT can provide some guidance on how to improve institutional capacity, especially in the targeting aspect of the program. Different experiences from Latin American countries which helped popularize the CCT have shown that implementation challenges and distributional outcomes vary from country to the other. But in terms of population coverage, it would appear that most Latin American countries target the poorest households as beneficiaries. For instance, Bolsa Familia in Brazil targets extremely poor households regardless of their composition. No conditionalities, however, are imposed for the childless extremely poor households. Similarly, Mexicos Oportunidades/Progresa which started in rural communities targeted extremely poor households, and later expanded to cover the extremely poor in urban areas. In the case of Colombia, it targeted extremely poor households in selected communities.

Design and Implementation Issues

Dr. Reyes pointed out that the 4Ps has some problems in its design and implementation, including the targeting system used and the high administrative costs.

There are issues on whether the targeting or selection of beneficiaries is being done properly. For one, their study showed the 4Ps has a leakage rate of about 30%. Only 70.81% of the 4Ps beneficiaries in 2011 are income poor (after taking out the cash grant). The NHTS-PR also identified 5.2 million poor families, way above the estimated 3.9 million poor families in 2009 and to include all these families in the program will lead to an even higher leakage rate.

Also, it was found that among the 4Ps beneficiaries who were poor, only 7.2% became non-poor when given cash transfers. Meanwhile, the exclusion rate of the 4Ps was estimated at 79.7%, with the program having reached 20.3% of the countrys total poor families. Reyes also noted that the 4Ps program may have been scaled up too rapidly, with household beneficiaries increasing from .006 million in 2007 to 5.2 million in 2014 (Figure 1).

1

5.2

0.0060.34

0.631.0

2.3

3.1

3.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 1 Number oF 4Ps HouseHold beNeFiciaries by year,

2007-2013 (iN millioNs)

Source: PIDS using basic DSWD data. 2013

The administrative cost of the program was also substantial. Since the 4Ps program has been piloted in 2007, a total of P75.993 billion has already been allocated for its implementation. By the end of 2013, this would roughly be around P120 billion. The share of the cash transfer to total budget was at 80.9% in 2011 and 89.9% in 2012 (Figure 2).

Reyes also pointed out that in 2011, the administration cost accounted for 19% of the total program cost but was estimated to go down to 10% in 2012. However, the P4 billion cost of running the program is equivalent to supporting 266,667 million families with three eligible children for one year.

The other problems in the implementation as mentioned by Reyes included: 1) the delays in transferring the cash grants (every two months); 2) the use of the cash card system by the beneficiaries

Congressional PoliCy and Budget researCh dePartment

1

Highest Educational Attainment 4Ps Non-4Ps

No grade completed 9.6 4.9Elementary undergraduate 36.8 21.1Elementary graduate 14.8 12.2High School undergraduate 14.9 13.4High School graduate 9.2 18.6College undergraduate 2.6 12.0College graduate 0.9 10.4Postgraduate 0 0.1

Table 1meaN ProPorTioN oF members iN 4Ps aNd NoN-4Ps Families by HigHesT educaTioNal aTTeaiNmeNT, 2011

Source: PIDS using data from 2011 APIS

1

50 2995,000

10,000

21,194

39,45044,250

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Figure 2 4Ps budgeT allocaTioN, 2007-2013

(iN millioN Pesos)

Assessing the Programs Impact

Characteristics of Beneficiaries. Reyes explained that they used the 2011 Annual Poverty Incidence Survey (APIS) to create a profile of the 4Ps beneficiaries. They determined that the beneficiaries make up 6.4% of the total families covered by the APIS and more than 82% of all 4Ps beneficiaries is made up of rural families.

In terms of educational attainment, the studys data show that majority of the poor reached only up to elementary undergraduate level only (Table I). On the average, there are relatively more members in 4Ps families who have lower educational attainment than in non-4Ps families, especially among those who have some elementary education. However, the difference between the two groups becomes smaller in the next two levels (elementary graduate and high school undergraduate) and the pattern eventually reverses starting with the proportion of those who at most are high school graduates.


The study revealed that very few members in 4Ps families had higher levels of education. Less than 10% finished at most high school, only around 2.6% were able to get some college units while barely 1% managed to get a college degree. Reyes said that these findings show the need to improve the educational attainment of the poor. It is important that programs such as the 4Ps be implemented to help them reach higher education or finish at least high school. Reyes added that the average daily wage of someone who has finished high school is 40% higher than that who has reached some years in elementary level.

Figure 3 disTribuTioN oF 4Ps Families by Per caPiTa- iNcome

decile, sHare To ToTal, (%)

1

0.20.40.71.2

2.75.9

10.2

17.4

25.7

35.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Poor

est 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Rich

est


In terms of income, the study showed that based on data for the first semester 2011, 4Ps beneficiaries had an average per capita income of PhP8,522,

only for the transfer of cash; and 3) without the option to keep money in the bank like a regular ATM savings account; and 4) the distribution of grants in cash (e.g. Naujan, Oriental Mindoro) in informal venues which may be a municipal hall next to a tiangge.


Table 2ProPorTioN oF cHildreN wHo are aTTeNdiNg iN 4Ps

aNd NoN-4Ps wHo are aTTeNdiNg scHool,by siNgle year oF age, 2011

1

Age 4Ps Non-4Ps6 92.6 92.07 98.0 97.28 98.4 98.49 98.9 98.2

10 98.3 98.111 98.3 97.812 96.4 97.013 93.6 93.914 89.7 90.715 77.5 86.216 60.0 71.317 43.6 58.718 33.8 48.2

Impact on Education. To establish whether the 4Ps has been meeting its objective in improving school participation, the school attendance of children beneficiaries as well as children in non-4Ps families were compared using data from the 2011 APIS.

Comparing school attendance rates of children in 4Ps and non-4Ps families, by single year of age, the school attendance rates of children in 4Ps families who are 6 to 11 years old have mostly slightly higher school attendance rates than children in non-4Ps families of the same age range. The school attendance rates among children aged 6 to 14 in both groups range from 90 to 99%. On the other hand, the proportions of children above 14 years of age who are attending school are lower than 80%. This even goes down as the children grow older from 15 to 18 years old. Also, starting from age 12 up to age 18, children of non-4Ps families already have higher school attendance rates than their counterparts in 4Ps families (Table 2).


Similarly, a comparison of school attendance rates of children in 4Ps and non-4Ps families belonging to the bottom 40% shows that children in 4Ps families with ages of 6 to 14 have higher attendance rates than children in non-4Ps families of the same age range. The big differences were observed in the groups: 6 year-olds (5.5 percentage points), 13 year-olds (4.9 percentage points) and 14 year-olds (4.1 percentage points). For ages 15 to 16, on the other hand, children of non-4Ps families exhibit higher school attendance rates than their counterparts in 4Ps families.

Further comparison of school attendance rates of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families by single year of age for 2011 revealed that there is significant statistical difference between the school attendance rates of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families for ages 6 to 14. According to Reyes, this means that 4Ps appears to be having a positive impact on school participation of children at the primary level. She further pointed out that this is more evident among the youngest batch of children beneficiaries and among those who are in their last year of being in the program. However, for ages 15 to 18, there is no significant statistical difference between the school attendance rates of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families.

Reyes explained that when their study looked at whether the child is studying and/or working, their findings showed that the proportion of children who are both studying and working is higher among 4Ps families than among non-4Ps families for all age groups. While children in 4Ps families who are attending school start working at an early age of 6, the proportion of those who are both studying and working is higher among older children, especially at age 14. Moreover, at age 15, the proportion of those who are not attending school but are working significantly increases (15% from 5% at age 14). This could mean that when children reach age 15, they begin to focus on finding work than going to school. While this may be true in non-4Ps families, it is more evident among 4Ps families (Figure 4).

with the poorest 10% having a per capita income of only P4,788. Without the cash grant, Reyes said that each person from 4Ps families had about PhP7,740 to cover his or her expenses for the entire six months (Figure 3).


Figure 4ProPorTioN oF cHildreN iN maTcHed NoN-4Ps Families wHo are aTTeNdiNg scHool aNd/or

workiNg, boTH sexes, by siNgle year oF age, 2011

1

33.6

24.3

5.39

14.88

26.15

38.29

46.1

96.9 96.5 95.7 94.4 92.688.7

92.1 84.8

75.2

63.1

48.4

0.0 2.520.910.540.10.00.00.00.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Out of school working Studying, not working


These findings support the conclusion that the 4Ps does not influence the participation of children beyond the age coverage of the program which is currently to 6- to 14-year-old children with the intention of encouraging them to finish elementary. Older children have been found to seek work instead of continuing their education.

Recommendations

Addressing Targeting Issues. To improve the targeting scheme, Reyes recommended the following: 1) Reduce the leakage rate by updating the Proxy Means Test Model; 2) Reduce the exclusion rate by moving away from the strategy of focusing on pockets of poverty; and 3) Focus on the chronic poor; transient poor may require programs other than the CCT. Chronic poor are those that are consistently income poor during the period under study, while transient poor are those who are classified as poor during a given point in time but were previously non-poor for at least one year during the period under study.

Enhancing Program Implementation. On the rapid scale-up of the 4Ps, Reyes recommended pilot testing changes in the program before scaling up. Such measure would entail answering important questions on the program such as: a) Should bigger grants be given to children in high school?, b)

Should grants be provided when children graduate from high school?, and c) What maximum number of years should the program have?

To reduce administrative cost, Reyes recommended the adoption of a unified data collection system for NHTS-PR which they expect will also reduce potential response bias.

To improve program implementation, Reyes also recommended reducing the lag in including beneficiaries identified through on-demand system. The cash transfer should also be distributed monthly, instead of every two months. This will ensure that the households have the funds when they need it and will not resort to using their ATM cards as collateral for loans. She also recommended that ATM card of the 4Ps beneficiaries be used for a regular savings account. Instead of just withdrawing the whole amount, this will encourage them to save even a small amount.

Moving Forward

On the extension of the 4Ps. During the forum, there was discussion on whether, and in what manner the 4Ps would be modified and/or extended. Dr. Romulo E. M. Miral, Jr. of the CPBRD opined that the present 4Ps design does not address the problem of improving attendance rates at the high school level.

Another issue raised was on whether the age coverage of the program would be extended up to 18 years old (in line with the K+12 Program) or whether the maximum of five years support provided to beneficiaries would be extended. Reyes responded that for the new beneficiaries, DSWD may consider focusing on older children given that the rate of return is 40% higher when children finish high school.

Reyes pointed out, however, that at its present state, it is not advisable to institutionalize the 4Ps through legislation. She expressed her support for the continuity of a well-designed program and stressed that the DSWD still needs to fine-tune the


ImPAct of condItIonAl cAsh trAnsfer In other countrIes

Overview

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become a popular tool for social protection around the world. Such programs transfer cash to poor households on the condition that they will spend these on education and health. They therefore hold promise for addressing the inter-generational transmission of poverty and fostering social inclusion.

An inherent feature in CCT programs, particularly in Latin American countries, is the built-in monitoring and evaluation. Many of these programs have conducted impact evaluations using counterfactuals and these have contributed to the transparency of cash transfer efforts. The World Bank (2009)

noted that impact assessment of CCT programs use comparisons between a treatment group or those who receive an intervention and a control group or those who did not receive it. These two groups, however, should be comparable in terms of observable and unobservable characteristics and failure to do so may affect the results.

program. Reyes took exception on the fact that the leakage cost of the program is 29% which could finance a 5-year program.

On the issue of leakages. House Committee on Poverty Alleviation Secretary, Ms. Lourdes Mendoza, expressed her concerns on whether it would be necessary to do another study on health issues to determine whether women are healthier (because of the 4Ps), and how the NHTS-PR would be able to reduce leakage.

Dr. Reyes said that reducing the leakage rate to 10% will result in savings amounting to billions of pesos. She emphasized that the 4Ps is not enough, and it is important to look at other programs (livelihood and employment) and to have an exit strategy for graduates of the program.

Moreover, she noted that government has to unify its data collection to do away with respondents who identify themselves as poor just to be included in the CCT. Ms. Romelyn Nazarete of the DSWD

added that their Department has set up a grievance redress system, such that even non-4Ps families can report when a family should not be included.

House Committee on Peoples Participation Secretary, Dr. Rolando Cronico, raised three issues: 1) the need to re-design the targeting system to safeguard integrity (target areas for selection of household beneficiaries); 2) institutionalization of citizens and volunteers participation in implementation, evaluation and feedback mechanism with regard to the program; and 3) House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr.s Volunteerism Bill which has a multi-sectoral partnership framework.

With further fine-tuning and possible modification, the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program carries significant potential to succeed in improving health and education outcomes but more work needs to be undertaken to resolve the various structural and implementation issues being raised. Prepared by: Byron M. Bicenio and Rommel V Asuncion

Distributional Outcomes of CCT

As in most evaluations on the CCTs, distributional outcomes as a result of these social interventions were focused on improvements in education, health and consumption components.

On Education. In the case of Mexico, findings from the impact assessment in 2008 of the Oportunidades


Program indicated that its largest impact was on education, with positive results on the following: 1) on enrolment, 2) total years of schooling, 3) dropouts and progressing on time. Importantly, many of the effects seem to be strongest for older children.

Some of the most significant enrolment impacts were observed at the transition between primary and middle school, where many children tended to drop out before Oportunidades. Short-term results in urban areas found the impact on school enrolment to increase in range between 912 percentage points for boys ages 1217, and 12.614.4 percentage points for girls the same age.

In terms of increasing the number of years in school, it was observed that after nearly six years of program benefits in rural areas, schooling increased by nearly a year for those participating compared to those who are non-participating. This also indicated important increases in progressing on time through school, with an increase of 13.5 percentage points for girls aged 1521, compared to 16 percentage points for boys the same age. While impact on reducing repetition appeared to be higher for younger children (ages 610), the impact on reducing dropout rates and encouraging re-entry among those who have dropped out was higher at the lower secondary school level.

Similarly, Bolsa Familia in Brazil had a positive impact on school attendance. An evaluation in 2007 found improvements in terms of probability of absence, which was 3.6 percentage points lower among children in beneficiary households, and in probability of dropping out which was also lower by 1.6 percentage points within the same group. There was, however, an observation that children in the Bolsa group were four times more likely than non-Bolsa children to not advance in school. The study attributed this to that most of the children in Bolsa households having been away from school for a long time that they had difficulty catching up with those who have always been in school.

A 2007 study on the Red de Proteccion Social (RPS) in Nicaragua showed that the cash transfer program had positive and significant effects on a broad range of indicators and outcomes. In education, there was a marked increase in school enrolment among the children of households under the RPS. The number of children who advanced two grades between 2000 and 2002 also increased. In tandem with increased schooling, the percentage of children 7-13 years working also declined.

On Health. Oportunidades had shown positive effects on beneficiaries health due to regular preventive medical visits and communal educative self-care workshops. The Program has encouraged households to carry out basic sanitation practices which helped them detect possible risk factors and take care of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections on time. By 2007, anemia incidence on beneficiaries younger than two years has been reduced by almost half (35.8%) compared to 1999 figures (61%). Low height prevalence has been diminished by one third of what was observed 10 years ago (23.9% compared to 35%), that is, 11 percentage points less. Over the past 10 years, the prevalence of anemia and height/weight deficit have been greatly reduced within the beneficiaries, going from 44% and 44.3%, respectively in 1998 to 32.5% in 2007.

Oportunidades also contributed to the promotion of information regarding reproductive health. Female high school beneficiaries now have access to plenty of information concerning family planning. Studies showed that beneficiary women of reproductive age of 15- to 49- years old, had increased their use of birth control; in 1998 only 36% of women used them compared to 42% in 2003 and 57% in 2007.

Nicaraguas RPS also recorded a substantial increase in the number of households that availed of child health care services, such as weight monitoring. There was no indication however that RPS contributed significantly in availment of vaccination since both treatment and control groups recorded increases in vaccination. (Meluccio, 2004)


The increased use of preventive health care services for children has been accompanied by an improvement in the nutritional status of beneficiary children under age 5. This resulted in an observable 0.5 percentage point decline in the number of children who were stunted.

It was not the same for Bolsa Familia in Brazil. The evaluation found that the program had no impact on child immunization despite being one of the conditionalities. The study suggests that the absence of impact may be due to constraints in the supply-side, such as health services that may not be available to the beneficiaries. In Mexico, only communities with education and health facilities are selected for their program. Moreover, monitoring of compliance to conditionalities and cash transfers work side by side in Oportunidades whereas in Bolsa Familia, compliance is monitored at the municipal level and only reported to the federal government. (Soares, 2010)

Likewise, the results of the evaluation do not show any positive impact on stunting and wasting among children of Bolsa households. Data from Brazils Nutrition Call Survey which was conducted in health centers in arid regions of the country showed that the program had significant impact on reducing stunting among children 6 to 11 months old and reducing wasting among children up to 5 months old. However, it did not have impact on children 12-36 months old, which is the critical period for nutritional vulnerability since is when the nutritional needs of infants increase. The survey, however, was conducted among pre-selected households and not randomly.

Earnings and Expenses. Oportunidades has positive effects regarding workforce incorporation by increasing beneficiaries school attendance and improving their health. In general, individuals with higher education have greater opportunities to obtain well-paid jobs. Moreover, younger beneficiaries who have received cash transfers for at least six years and who have finished their elementary and junior high school education have increased their salaries by 12% and 14%

respectively, compared to non-beneficiaries.

The RPS also supplemented per capita annual total household expenditures by 18%. For beneficiary households, this increase compensated for the large income loss they experienced during the period. Most of the increase in expenses was spent on food while expenditures on education also increased.

The evaluation on Bolsa Familia showed that the program has not significantly affected the aggregate consumption of households in contrast with what was found in households covered by Mexicos Oportunidades. However, positive impacts were observed in expenditures on food, education and childrens clothing. Consequently, the share of income spent on such items also went up among beneficiary households. Despite conditionalities on health checkups, the evaluation found no significant impact on consumption related to childrens health. Prepared by Rommel V. Asuncion

An Initial Assessment of the Pantawidd Pamilyang Pilipino Program- Looking at Possible Potentials...

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