An Exploration of Quantitative An Exploration of Quantitative Methods for Comparing Urban Methods for Comparing Urban

Development ScenariosDevelopment Scenarios

Sean HowardSean HowardMGIS CandidateMGIS Candidate

University of Calgary, ABUniversity of Calgary, ABsphoward@ucalgary.casphoward@ucalgary.ca

Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives

1.1. Explore the interdependent relationship Explore the interdependent relationship between space, urbanization, and quality of lifebetween space, urbanization, and quality of life

2.2. Use What If? to apply four different land use Use What If? to apply four different land use policy scenarios to Calgary, Albertapolicy scenarios to Calgary, Alberta

3.3. Develop a methodology for comparing the Develop a methodology for comparing the spatial patterns produced by the different land spatial patterns produced by the different land use policy scenarios using spatialuse policy scenarios using spatial--quantitative quantitative techniques techniques

4.4. Define connections between the spatialDefine connections between the spatial--quantitative techniques used and the quantitative techniques used and the urbanization process, as well as quality of lifeurbanization process, as well as quality of life

Conceptual drawing by Anne Thomas (2008)

Theory and BackgroundTheory and Background

Urbanization is a spatialUrbanization is a spatial--temporal processtemporal process–– Urban areas are always evolving and changing Urban areas are always evolving and changing –– Changes to the spatial structure of the city modify the Changes to the spatial structure of the city modify the

movement patterns of people, goods, and capitalmovement patterns of people, goods, and capital–– These changes inevitable impact quality of life by reThese changes inevitable impact quality of life by re--

organizing the spatial relationship between organizing the spatial relationship between consumers and goods/services, consumers and goods/services, labourlabour and and employment, as well as capital and the marketemployment, as well as capital and the market

–– It is useful to measure the spatial structure of the city It is useful to measure the spatial structure of the city because it provides a way to evaluate how spatial because it provides a way to evaluate how spatial pattern impact the urbanization process and quality of pattern impact the urbanization process and quality of lifelife

Urban Growth Models (Urban Growth Models (UGMsUGMs))Agent vs. EquationAgent vs. Equation--Based ModelsBased Models–– AgentAgent--based based UGMsUGMs are disaggregate models, where household, are disaggregate models, where household,

government, business, developer, and land agents are generated government, business, developer, and land agents are generated The various agents have methods and attributes (i.e. actions thaThe various agents have methods and attributes (i.e. actions that t they can perform and traits that define them)they can perform and traits that define them)The methods and attributes of agents encourage them to interact The methods and attributes of agents encourage them to interact with one anotherwith one anotherAgent interactions cause changes to the landscape, population, aAgent interactions cause changes to the landscape, population, and nd economy of the study areaeconomy of the study areaAn example of this type of UGM is An example of this type of UGM is UrbanSimUrbanSim

–– EquationEquation--based based UGMsUGMs tend to be aggregate models that are tend to be aggregate models that are either stochastic or deterministic either stochastic or deterministic

Deterministic models use fixed equations to predict land use Deterministic models use fixed equations to predict land use changes changes Stochastic models include a random seed in their equations and Stochastic models include a random seed in their equations and leverage Monte Carlo simulationleverage Monte Carlo simulation

–– Used to account for uncertainty Used to account for uncertainty –– SLEUTH is a stochastic equationSLEUTH is a stochastic equation--based UGMbased UGM

What If?What If?What If? is a deterministic equationWhat If? is a deterministic equation--based UGMbased UGM–– Land use changes are based on demand and suitability functionsLand use changes are based on demand and suitability functions–– Demand is predicted using population growth trends and density Demand is predicted using population growth trends and density

levels levels –– Suitability is defined by a variety of topographic and Suitability is defined by a variety of topographic and

infrastructure features infrastructure features –– What If? can be manipulated to simulate a wide variety of land What If? can be manipulated to simulate a wide variety of land

use policy scenarios by manipulating suitability and demand use policy scenarios by manipulating suitability and demand variablesvariables

Land use policy scenarios testedLand use policy scenarios tested–– Urban SprawlUrban Sprawl–– New Urbanism New Urbanism –– Ecological DesignEcological Design–– ‘‘Imagine CalgaryImagine Calgary’’

Methods: SpatialMethods: Spatial--Quantitative Quantitative Measurement TechniquesMeasurement Techniques

Land Use IntensityLand Use Intensity–– Land use intensity is measured using a modified density gradientLand use intensity is measured using a modified density gradient and Local Indicators or and Local Indicators or

Spatial Association (LISA)Spatial Association (LISA)–– Density gradients are typically used to measure change in densitDensity gradients are typically used to measure change in density vs. distancey vs. distance

8 Landscape Metrics8 Landscape Metrics–– Number of patches (NP), mean patch size (MPS), and patch size stNumber of patches (NP), mean patch size (MPS), and patch size standard deviation (PSSD) andard deviation (PSSD)

are used to explore the fragmentation of the landscape and are aare used to explore the fragmentation of the landscape and are associated with the land use ssociated with the land use intensity measure to determine if the landscape is intensity measure to determine if the landscape is monocentricmonocentric or polycentricor polycentric

–– Edge density (ED), class level Fractal Dimension (GFD), and meanEdge density (ED), class level Fractal Dimension (GFD), and mean nearest neighbor distance nearest neighbor distance (MNND) are used to measure the shape, complexity, and level of f(MNND) are used to measure the shape, complexity, and level of fragmentation of the ragmentation of the landscape landscape

–– Contagion (CONTAG) is used to measure the level of contiguity wiContagion (CONTAG) is used to measure the level of contiguity within each land use classthin each land use class–– SimpsonSimpson’’s Evenness Index (SIEI) is used to measure the relative diversits Evenness Index (SIEI) is used to measure the relative diversity of the landscape y of the landscape

Accessibility Accessibility –– An accessibility measurement tool was developed using An accessibility measurement tool was developed using ArcObjectsArcObjects to measure approximate to measure approximate

accessibility to amenities such as parks and recreational faciliaccessibility to amenities such as parks and recreational facilities, commercial areas, and ties, commercial areas, and public transit stationspublic transit stations

–– The Euclidean distance is calculated for each residential featurThe Euclidean distance is calculated for each residential feature to the closes amenity e to the closes amenity feature of each type considered and standardized by the total nufeature of each type considered and standardized by the total number of residential featuresmber of residential features

Preliminary FindingsPreliminary FindingsCalgary, AB 2006Calgary, AB 2006–– Land Use Intensity Land Use Intensity

Calgary is primarily Calgary is primarily monocentricmonocentricOne primary and one secondary population center; the central One primary and one secondary population center; the central business district (CBD) and NE Calgarybusiness district (CBD) and NE CalgaryThe CMA of Calgary has two additional minor population centers The CMA of Calgary has two additional minor population centers

–– Cochrane (NW of Calgary) and Cochrane (NW of Calgary) and AirdrieAirdrie (North of Calgary)(North of Calgary)–– Landscape metrics Landscape metrics

Residential land uses dominate the landscape (NP, MPS, PSSD)Residential land uses dominate the landscape (NP, MPS, PSSD)Calgary land uses are relatively disperse with moderate Calgary land uses are relatively disperse with moderate fragmentation (ED, MNND, GFD)fragmentation (ED, MNND, GFD)Land uses appear to be discrete and the landscape is relatively Land uses appear to be discrete and the landscape is relatively homogeneous (Contagion = 85.2, SIEI = 0.0117)homogeneous (Contagion = 85.2, SIEI = 0.0117)

–– AccessibilityAccessibilityThe residential areas with the highest accessibility are locatedThe residential areas with the highest accessibility are located near near the Calgary CBD and along light rail transit linesthe Calgary CBD and along light rail transit lines

LegendLISA * Density Gradient

Very LowLowMediumHighVery High

Land Use Intensity Map for Calgary, AB2006. Dark brown values indicate high concentrations of population and light yellow values indicate low concentrations of population.

CBD

NE Calgary

AirdrieCochrane

Accessibility map for Calgary, AB 2006.

LegendAccessibility

Very High

High

Medium

Low

Very Low

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Residential Commercial Parks andRecreational

Government andInstitutional

Resource andIndustrial

Open Area Water Body

Land Use Class

Stan

dard

ized

Met

ric V

alue

s

Edge Density

Fractal Dimensions

Mean Nearest Neighbor Distance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Residential Commercial Parks andRecreational

Government andInstitutional

Resource andIndustrial

Open Area Water Body

Land Use Class

Sta

ndar

dize

d M

etri

c V

alue

Number of Patchs

Mean Patch Size

Patch Size Standard Deviation

Expected ResultsExpected ResultsUrban Sprawl Urban Sprawl –– Produces landscapes that are dominated by low density residentiaProduces landscapes that are dominated by low density residential housing, and l housing, and

limited public green spacelimited public green space–– Encourages private transportationEncourages private transportation–– Discrete land uses with very minimal mixed use areasDiscrete land uses with very minimal mixed use areas

New UrbanismNew Urbanism–– Increased density levels and amount of public green spaceIncreased density levels and amount of public green space–– Better balance of transportation optionsBetter balance of transportation options–– Mixed land usesMixed land uses

Ecological DesignEcological Design–– Highest development densities and amount of public green spaceHighest development densities and amount of public green space–– Encourage public forms of transportationEncourage public forms of transportation–– Mixed land uses Mixed land uses

‘‘Imagine CalgaryImagine Calgary’’–– Moderate increase in density levels and public green spaceModerate increase in density levels and public green space–– increased balance between public and private transportation, butincreased balance between public and private transportation, but still dominated still dominated

by private forms of transitby private forms of transit–– Moderate amount of mixed use development Moderate amount of mixed use development

Conceptual drawing by Anne Thomas (2008)

ConclusionsConclusionsCalgary exhibits many of the characteristics of a region Calgary exhibits many of the characteristics of a region under an under an ‘‘urban sprawlurban sprawl’’ land use policyland use policy–– This is demonstrated by the preliminary results obtainedThis is demonstrated by the preliminary results obtained

The preliminary results suggest that the spatialThe preliminary results suggest that the spatial--quantitative techniques used for this project successfully quantitative techniques used for this project successfully distinguish the spatial patterns of the landscape, provide distinguish the spatial patterns of the landscape, provide insight about the type of development occurring, and insight about the type of development occurring, and can be associated with issues of quality of lifecan be associated with issues of quality of lifeIt is expected that What If? will successfully simulate the It is expected that What If? will successfully simulate the four land use policy scenarios and that the spatialfour land use policy scenarios and that the spatial--quantitative techniques will distinguish the four scenariosquantitative techniques will distinguish the four scenarios

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