An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J....
-
Upload
arleen-gallagher -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
1
Transcript of An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J....
![Page 1: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events
Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY
Albany, NY 12222
Steven J. Weiss
NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center
Norman, OK 12233 Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XVI
Wednesday 4 November 2015
Support Provided by: NSF-AGS-1240502
![Page 2: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Definitions
• “Parallel” events are defined as cases where traditional forms of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail) are ongoing at the same time during which severe flooding is also occurring within a given area.
• “Transition” events are characterized by a shift in the main threat type with respect to time. Usually this shift is from classical forms of severe weather to flash flooding at a later time as initial discrete supercells grow upscale into Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) with training elements.
![Page 3: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Motivation
• Severe thunderstorms produce multiple hazards all of which have high societal impacts.
– Classical severe weather (tornado, hail, damaging wind)
– Flash flooding
• When both threats are possible it presents a major challenge for operational forecasters
– Communication of dual threat to general public
– Accurate prediction of convective initiation, upscale growth
process and “transitions” in primary threat type with respect to
time associated with changes in storm environment.
![Page 4: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outline
1. Objectives
2. Methodology
3. “Parallel” Event Example
4. “Transition” Event Example
5. 2007-2015 NE US Climatology
![Page 5: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Objectives
• Create a 10-year climatology of these events nationally:– Where do these events occur? – When do they occur (diurnally and seasonally)?
• Identify synoptic scale and mesoscale environmental features which favor the development of these events (future work):– End goal is to improve the predictability of these events– Composite analysis of environmental variables– Selected case studies– Numerical simulation (if time permits)
![Page 6: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methodology
![Page 7: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Methodology
• Study time period: 2007–2015• Data
– Storm reports from NOAA Storm Data publication– Archived radar data
• Study domain: CONUS east of the Front Range– Focus on Northeast climatology– “Northeast” was defined as area bounded by 39.0–
47.5 N latitude and 66.5–81.0 W longitude (see next slide)
![Page 8: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Northeast Domain
12z 15z 21z 00z 03z 06z 09z 12z18z
![Page 9: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
SVR/FF Event Criteria
Spatial Requirement: Reports cover area greater than 25,000 km2.Temporal Requirement: Event at least 3 hours in duration.Minimum Report Threshold: At least 30 Severe (SVR) and 10 Flash Flood/Flood (FF) Reports.Exception: If an event resulted in either a fatality, 10 or more injuries, or greater than $10 million in damages the minimum report threshold was lowered to 15 SVR and 5 FF reports.
![Page 10: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Methodology
• Report plots, color coded hourly report plots and report time series were created for each day using the storm reports
• Combined SVR/FF events were identified using the plots mentioned above, the criteria on the previous slide and archived radar data
• SVR/FF events were subjectively classified as either “Parallel” or “Transition”
![Page 11: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
“Parallel” Example
![Page 12: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
“Parallel” Example
![Page 13: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
“Parallel” Example
12z 15z 21z 00z 03z 06z 09z 12z18z
![Page 14: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
“Parallel” Example
![Page 15: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
“Transition” Example
![Page 38: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
“Transition” Example
![Page 39: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
“Transition” Example
12z 15z 21z 00z 03z 06z 09z 12z18z
![Page 40: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
“Transition” Example
![Page 41: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
![Page 54: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
![Page 55: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
![Page 56: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
![Page 59: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
![Page 60: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
![Page 61: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
![Page 62: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
![Page 63: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
![Page 64: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
![Page 65: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
![Page 66: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
![Page 68: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
![Page 69: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
![Page 70: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
![Page 71: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
![Page 72: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
![Page 73: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
![Page 74: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
![Page 75: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Northeast Climatology(2007–2015)
![Page 76: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Climatology
• 43 Total Events– 35 Parallel– 8 Transition
![Page 77: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Climatology
January
Febru
ary
March April
May
JuneJuly
August
September
October
November
December
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Monthly Distribution
EventsParallelTransition
Month
Num
ber
of E
vent
s
![Page 78: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Climatology• Sd
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Yearly Distribution
EventsParallelTransition
Year
Num
ber
of E
vent
s
![Page 79: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
All Events• Sd
![Page 80: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Parallel• Sd
![Page 81: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Transition• Sd
![Page 82: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Conclusions/Future Work
• “Parallel” events most common in Northeast US• Average ~ 5 combined events per year• Seasonal Distribution is as expected• Delineation between “parallel” and “transition” events
may be of greater benefit in other regions of the United States
• Future Work:– Expansion of 10-year climatology to remainder of study area– Composite analysis of environmental variables– Selected case studies– Numerical simulations (if time permits)
![Page 83: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
All Events• Sd
n=43 Tornado Hail Wind Total SVRFlash Flood Flood Total FF/F
Average 2.00 15.37 68.49 85.86 18.60 6.09 24.70Standard Deviation 4.18 23.35 46.19 57.83 9.45 9.34 13.87Sum 86 661 2945 3692 800 262 1062Median 1 6 55 72 16 2 22Max 22 123 195 260 42 39 72Min 0 0 8 17 3 0 5
n=43 Deaths Injuries Damages FF Damage SVR DamageAverage 0.37 2.05 6817411.63 4798069.77 2019341.86Standard Deviation 1.00 5.67 10056994.78 8473514.59 5892701.72Sum 16 88 293148700 206317000 86831700Median 0 0 2046500 455000 600000Max 5 35 40004000 30350000 37775000Min 0 0 34000 0 8000
![Page 84: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Parallel• Sd
n=35 Tornado Hail Wind Total SVRFlash Flood Flood Total FF/F
Average 2.06 16.31 70.49 88.86 19.57 6.29 25.86Standard Deviation 4.54 24.22 49.18 62.57 9.83 10.12 14.88Sum 72 571 2467 3110 685 220 905Median 1 7 55 66 20 2 24Max 22 123 195 260 42 39 72Min 0 0 8 17 4 0 5
n=35 Deaths Injuries Damages FF Damage SVR DamageAverage 0.43 2.00 7059462.86 4742085.71 2317377.14Standard Deviation 1.09 6.08 10226487.87 8272091.24 6507265.62Sum 15 70 247081200 165973000 81108200Median 0 0 2205500 585000 600000Max 5 35 40004000 30350000 37775000Min 0 0 34000 0 8000
![Page 85: An Examination of “Parallel” and “Transition” Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events Kyle J. Pallozzi and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental.](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052414/5697bfee1a28abf838cb9655/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Transition• Sd
n=8 Tornado Hail Wind Total SVRFlash Flood Flood Total FF/F
Average 1.75 11.25 59.75 72.75 14.38 5.25 19.63Standard Deviation 2.19 19.93 30.71 28.39 6.41 5.09 6.61Sum 14 90 478 582 115 42 157Median 1 1 56.5 77 14.5 3 17Min 0 0 30 32 3 0 11Max 6 55 115 117 26 13 30
n=8 Deaths Injuries Damages FF Damage SVR DamageAverage 0.13 2.25 5758437.50 5043000.00 715437.50Standard Deviation 0.35 3.65 9865047.93 9917477.17 532084.83Sum 1 18 46067500 40344000 5723500Median 0 0 1074500 222500 544250Min 0 0 223000 35000 153000Max 1 9 28303500 27650000 1797000