An Event Horizon:Egypt’s Dwindling Water Resources

Danielle FranzeseMaxwell GreenEllery Tuck

International Studies Program, Miami University

Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation

May of 2015

Executive Summary

There are few problems more threatening and more immediate to the state of Egypt than the

looming crisis of chronic water shortage. Despite being an arid desert that receives almost no rain – aside

from a meager amount in its northernmost region – the land has provided a gift that has allowed

Egyptians to eke out an existence in this harsh land: the Nile River. For thousands of years, The Nile has

provided for Egypt; however, in only a matter of years, this gift will not be enough to sustain Egypt’s

people. As Egypt’s population blossoms, this vital resource to Egypt becomes less and less sufficient.

What are the potential courses of action for those responsible for the people of Egypt? Should

they attempt to harvest more from the Nile? Is this even possible? The brief answer is yes, it is. However,

what will happen when that amount is not enough? Egypt would find itself in the exact same position it is

now. The only solution that remains is to reduce the amount of water used in Egypt.

How can this be accomplished? Should water be rationed among the people to prevent waste? Should

factories, and power plants, be restricted in their use of water? There is a better way. Consuming nearly

all of the water used in Egypt, the Egyptian agricultural sector is without a doubt the greatest area of

opportunity to be found.

An evolution in the agricultural practices of Egyptian farmers is both entirely possible, and

absolutely essential to the survival of Egypt’s people. Egypt has already revolutionized agriculture in the

past, and subsequently became the breadbasket of the known world. Now Egypt’s government, and

Egypt’s farmers, must accomplish this task once more through a combination of refined trade policies and

the incorporation of new technologies; this seemingly insurmountable task can – and must – be

accomplished.

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Chapter 1:Defining the Problem of the

Egyptian Water Crisis

INTRODUCTION

Water and food security will be the most critical issues to frame Egyptian policy in the

coming decades. With a rapidly growing population demanding increasingly more resources and

neighboring states seeking to renegotiate the terms of existing water treaties, Egypt will need to

craft forward thinking policies regarding their water resource management as well as their

agricultural practices and regulations of the utilities industry if they hope to survive and thrive in

the coming years. Ultimately Egypt will face a population crisis in the coming decades where the

current model of water harvesting, distribution, and consumption will not suffice and alternative

methods must be explored or face dire geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian consequences.

Egypt's coming water crisis stems from several sources and the policies crafted to prevent

it will need to be a multi-pronged effort as well. The biggest source of Egypt's concerns comes

from its rapidly growing population: in the next 35 years, the number of people residing in Egypt

is forecasted to grow to nearly 140 million people from its current population of 80 million. With

a fixed amount of water available to the population, those responsible for the administration of

this precious resource will need to be able to do more with less. Additionally, ineffective

irrigation methods and water misuse take a toll on Egypt’s ongoing water crisis. In order to best

determine a solution for this problem, it is necessary to analyze a variety of different factors

regarding water usage in the North African and Nile River Basin regions. Therefore, this report

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has been drafted so as to inform the Egyptian ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, of

potential solutions to this impending crisis.

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Figure 1: geographical map of the Nile River Basin

Source: the World Bank

IMPORTANCE OF THE NILE RIVER

There is no doubt that the Nile River has an immense impact on modern-day Egypt and

on the countries in which the river runs through; however, the Nile has also played a major role

in the human world throughout history. The importance of the Nile River extends far beyond the

North African need for water with regard to irrigation, industrial, and domestic uses. In fact, no

other body of water has had as great of an impact on the human world as the Nile has. In order to

evaluate the importance of the Nile, we must examine its impact by analyzing geography,

anthropology, and early to early-modern history.

The area in which the Nile originates – the East African Rift Valley – is a magnificent

anomaly in the geographical history of the planet earth. Noticeably, the East African Rift Valley

has been called both the cradle of the Nile, as well as the cradle of the human race (Kerisel 18).

In order for primate evolution to occur, certain geographical conditions were needed: equatorial

forests, warm temperatures, and a moist, temperate environment surrounded by lakes and

savannahs (18). This area where the East African Rift Valley was formed created an environment

that was particularly conducive to the evolution of primates into early modern humans (18).

Thus, not only did the great river carry water from inner Africa, but it also carried the first

humans into the fertile valleys of what is now Egypt.

As well as being an important factor in human evolution, the Nile River Basin has often

been called a “genetic corridor” that has aided humans in their migration along the river (Owens

et al.). In the past, some believed the Nile to be a barrier to migration due to the linguistic and

cultural differences between the civilizations on the banks of the river, but evidence shows that

there was actually a significant amount of “gene flow” along the Nile (Krings et al.). In fact,

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scientists estimate that there is a compelling amount of evidence proving that Egypt and Nubia

have had much genetic contact with each other (Krings et al.). Therefore, the Nile has assuredly

bolstered the migration of humans from Sub-Saharan to North Africa, and conversely from North

to Sub-Saharan Africa.

With a highly favorable climate, a significant amount of fertile land, and an accessible

source of freshwater, human populations developed and thrived along the Nile River. The

Egyptian cities of Memphis and Thebes were some of the earliest larger settlements along the

river and were well known for their advanced agricultural techniques. Additionally, civilizations

such as the Kingdom of Kush and the Egyptian Empire were massive and expansive in their size

and scope. Nonetheless, while the Nile River was arguably the source of the earliest-known

humans, it was also the source of some of the earliest-known conflicts: around the year 2575

BCE, the Egyptian Pharaoh Snefru organized an invasion into Nubia to gather mineral resources;

the Hyksos - a group of northern migrants who moved into the Nile River Delta - are theorized to

have invaded and taken control of Egypt’s 13th Dynasty; later, the Kingdom of Kush would go

on to conquer the Egyptian people and establish a dynasty under its rule. Today, the Nile River

Delta is still a major source of ongoing conflict: from the bloody Congo conflicts over the

mineral-rich land that was created by the Nile, to the political debates over strategic water usage

by Nile-bearing countries, the Nile was and will continue to be a source of conflict in the region

(Draper 2).

Geologic History of the Nile River

Winding over 4,000 miles long through the continent of Africa, the Nile River is the

longest river on earth; however, the Nile was not always the mighty river it is today. The

beginnings of the Nile River start some thirty million years ago with the collision of Africa and

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Asia, which prompted enormous pressure and caused an expansion of the ocean floor beneath the

two continents (Kerisel 3). Occurring beneath what is now known as the Red Sea, the oceanic

subduction that took place created rifts, or zones in which parts of the earth’s crust are tearing

away from each other (3). This expansion in East Africa led to the formation of many mountain

ranges, valleys, lakes, and rivers in an area known as the East African Rift (“Rift Valley”). The

East African Rift is made up of smaller rift valleys that meet at the Afar Triple Junction, where

the Nubian plate, the Arabian plate, and the Somali plate are all pulling away from each other.

The two major rifts in the system are the Gregory Rift and the Albertine Rift, which is frequently

called the Western Rift (“Rift Valley”). The Gregory Rift stretches from the Red Sea and the

Gulf of Aden to Tanzania, while the Albertine Rift runs along some of the African Great Lakes,

such as Lake Malawi, Lake Kivu, Lake Albert, and many others (“Rift Valley”). The East

African Rift Valley is also part of the “Great Rift Valley System,” which is a system of various

rift valleys that stretch from the Middle East to Madagascar (“Rift Valley”).

The Nile River is unique in that it contradicts the normal geography of rivers, which can

be attributed to its unusual geography and creation (Kerisel 10). Until about 600,000 years ago,

the Nile as we know it did not exist; rather, there were multiple Niles, some of which flowed in

opposite directions (Kerisel 11). About six million years ago after an intense period of glaciation,

the water level of the Mediterranean – which was then an isolated sea – dropped substantially

(Kerisel 11). The decrease in the water level resulted in a river at the mouth of the sea creating a

deep canyon that would later be filled with water and sediment when the water level would rise

again (Kerisel 11). These processes would give way to the creation of many Niles from a single,

common source. One million years ago, the Blue Nile and White Nile flowed towards the

enormous Lake Sudd, where the Sudd swamps are today; likewise, another Proto-Nile flowed

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northwards to what is now the Mediterranean Sea (Kerisel 12). Much later, these rivers would

eventually join to create a single Nile River.

Geography of the Nile River

Today, the source of the Nile can be found on a watershed where, on one side, water

flows south towards Lake Tanganyika; on the other side, the Nile begins its northward descent

towards the Mediterranean Sea (Kerisel 14). At an altitude of 2050 meters, this small trickle of

water feeds the first of the many rivers that make up the Nile River system, known as the Rivuvu

River (also called the Rurubu), which then becomes the Kagera and drains into Lake Victoria,

Lake Edward, Lake George, and Lake Albert (Kerisel 5, 14). At this point, the river is referred to

as the White Nile until it reaches Khartoum, where it joins the Blue Nile (Kerisel 15). Lastly, the

Nile River makes its way around the Nubian plate and ends at the mouth of the Mediterranean

Sea (Kerisel 15).

What makes the Nile River so important is that

it is the source for all life in the region. As previously

mentioned, many theorize that the Nile River Basin

played a major role in the evolution of primates and the

migration of humans; in addition, its importance for

creating and sustaining life can be seen from space, as

seen in figure 1. In the dry, vast, and expansive desert

that is much of Egypt, the small amount of plant life is

mainly located along the banks of the Nile River and in

the Nile River Delta. The Nile offers favorable growing

conditions for plants and in turn, these plants create an

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Figure 2: The Nile River Basin viewed from space

Source: NASA

environment that is necessary for animal life, including that of humans. The humans then create

civilizations along the banks of the Nile due to the favorable and more temperate climate, the

access to plants and animals, and the ability to access and control the waters of the Nile for

agricultural and domestic uses, such as having potable water. Today, the vast majority of Egypt’s

population lives along the Nile, and all of Egypt’s major cities have been built on the banks of

this mighty river.

HISTORY OF THE PROBLEM

The problem of the growing water crisis facing Egypt can be understood by looking at

the various ways that the Nile River is used for: political power, agriculture, and water diversion

projects. For many, the control of the Nile increased political legitimacy and the ability to control

one’s people, as well as the people of other civilizations or states. The biggest and most

significant component of the Egyptian problem lies in agriculture, as this has been a crucial

element in Egyptian society for thousands of years. Lastly, the various water diversion projects

and the tactics used for implementing these exacerbated many of the present problems and

increased conflict and tension in the region.

A Problem of Politics and Power

With regard to the issue of political power, the history of conflict surrounding the Nile

River first dates back to several thousand years ago, when groups of people began settling along

the banks of this river. Early on, humans attempted to control the waters of the Nile in a

multitude of ways, from diverting its waters to flood their fields, to creating settlements that

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withstood the yearly floods that the river brought. Additionally, the rulers and the great Pharaohs

of Egypt greatly understood the importance of the river, as those who controlled the Nile,

controlled the people. Nile-dwellers were constantly at the mercy of floods, the gods, and their

rulers who attempted to control the Nile, which sometimes led to social unrest among the people

of these civilizations. Thus, while the conflict over the Nile is mainly related to the use of its

waters, the conflict also has its roots in the struggle for power in the region.

Thousands of years after the original settlers of the river fought for control of the Nile

and its waters, various actors continued at attempting to control the water for political means and

for demonstrating power in the region. During the colonization of Africa, European states such

as Great Britain and Italy flexed their power by creating treaties over the use of the Nile in order

to control the people in their respective territories, as well as demonstrating to the other

European states that they were indeed a powerful nation (Ferede et. al 58). Overall, the ways in

which political power was expressed in this region often came in the form of diverting,

controlling, and harnessing the mighty Nile River.

A Problem of Agriculture

Agriculture is the single most important issue when considering the growing problem of the

Egyptian water crisis. Agriculture is a crucial element of Egyptian society and the Egyptian

people have strong agrarian backgrounds. When humans first began to settle along the Nile

thousands of years ago, the river hosted two types of settlements: those along the banks of the

river where peasants would level the surface of the valley to create basins for growing crops and

embankments for settling on, and those that had been built on mounds within the Nile Valley

(Kerisel 38). One of the most famous examples of the latter was the city of Memphis, which was

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constructed on the floor of the valley and surrounded by ramparts that had to withstand floods

(Kerisel 41).

As we can see, from the very beginning, Egyptians have tried to control the waters of the

Nile in a variety of ways for agricultural purposes; from diverting the river to create smaller

tributaries for water storage, to flooding massive fields for irrigation purposes. Additionally,

because of the constant flow of the Nile, many Egyptians never feared that the waters of the Nile

would diminish; however, that myth no longer holds true, as inefficient agricultural techniques

use far more water than what is actually needed. In fact, if one were to travel along the small

Egyptian farms on the banks of the Nile, one would see ancient farming tools and equipment. For

example, many farmers still use shadufs, a tool dating back to 2300 BC that consists of a long

pole or branch with a bucket that can be used to transport water from one source to another with

relative ease (Mays 472). The majority of Egyptian farms have seen little technological

innovation due to the use of these ancient types of tools and techniques, many of which have

been passed down for generations. As a result, agriculture remains the largest problem facing

Egypt and its water crisis due to the inefficiency at irrigating and maintaining farms.

A Problem of Water Diversion

Another significant component that affects Egypt’s growing water crisis surrounds the water

diversion projects that are implemented by Nile-bearing countries along the river. Even

thousands of years ago, Egyptians practiced advanced water diversion techniques, such as

creating reservoirs, canals, and a variety of flood regulators. As early as 2000 BC, the Bahr El

Yussef Canal was dug, carrying excess water into the manmade Lake Moeris and becoming the

first manmade flood-regulator (Fahim 8). Water diversion has increasingly played a critical role

in Egyptian society, which has, however, sometimes led to conflict.

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The first major modern conflict surrounding the Nile involved the control over water projects

affecting the flow of the Nile. In newly-acquired Eritrea, Italy wished to create an irrigation

project on the Atbara River, which flows into the Nile; however, British interests believed that

this would greatly affect the flow of water into the Nile and so the Anglo-Italian Protocol was

signed on April 15, 1891, without taking the interests of third parties like Ethiopia into account

(Ferede et. al 58). This legal, written document regarding control of the Nile was the first of

many that were either drafted without third party consent, did not consider the interests of the

host territories or countries, or disregarded the effect that a document could have on a certain

group of people. Some of the most notable treaties and protocols drafted around the Nile and a

brief description of the related issues are listed below:

1. Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (May 15, 1902): One of the most highly contested agreements

about the use of the Nile, this agreement was created to handle to boundary delimitations

between Ethiopia and Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, stating that Emperor Menelik of Ethiopia

mustn’t engage in any water projects that would affect the flow of any headwaters for the

Nile. The controversies surrounding this agreement lie in the vast differences between the

English and Amharic versions of the treaty (Ferede et al. 59).

2. The Tripartite Treaty (1906): An exclusively British, French, and Italian agreement, this

treaty acted to keep the interests of these colonial powers safe, while undermining the

sovereignty of Nile River Basin countries (Ferede et al. 60).

3. The Anglo-Egyptian Nile Water Agreement (1929): This exchange between Egyptian

Prime Minister Mohammed Mahmoud Pasha and an English diplomat led to the

recognition of Sudan’s right to water for development as long as Egypt’s “natural and

historic rights” were respected. This led to the creation of a strict water management

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system that favored Egypt, as well as Egypt being able to inspect the amount of water

Sudan used and veto certain projects (Ferede et al. 61, 62).

4. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement: Probably the most pertinent of treaties today, this

agreement is the first between the independent African states regarding international

water usage and sharing. In order to secure water for its own means, Egypt sought to

create a massive dam project, known as the Aswan High Dam. After Sudan rejected these

proposals, Egyptian troops marched toward Sudan, ending in an Egyptian-sponsored

military coup in 1958, which helped push Egypt’s agenda. This agreement settled the

issue over the quantity of the Nile flow between Sudan and Egypt, but left upstream

countries with no say in the matter (Ferede et al. 63, 64).

The Case of the Aswan High Dam

By far the most significant of any project to disrupt or divert the flow of the Nile River is

the Aswan High Dam. This 3,600-meter long, 980-meter wide dam cost over $1 billion USD to

construct and now produces around 15% of Egypt’s electric supply (Arsenault 40, 41). Before

the construction of the Aswan High Dam, Egypt faced two major threats regarding its use of the

Nile: first, if the yearly Nile flood was high, then disaster would ensue; second, if it were very

low, than famine or drought might occur (Fahim 10). In order to alleviate these problems and

regulate the amount of water that the Nile allowed the flow downstream, a massive water project

would have to be implemented.

Talk of building a dam on the Nile River first began in 1889, when a barrage halfway between

Aswan and Cairo was constructed in order to divert the flow of water into canals (Fahim 10).

This barrage controlled the flow of water into the Aswan Reservoir, which held about one billion

cubic meters of water (10). While the Aswan Reservoir helped to partially alleviate these

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problems, it had to be heightened three times and was only a temporary solution (10). In the

summer of 1946, the floodwater was the highest it had ever been in the twentieth century and if it

had not been contained at the Aswan Reservoir, it would have flooded the city of Cairo (10).

Thus, a more stable solution was needed to control the flow of the Nile and prevent disaster from

happening.

The decision to build the dam was made shortly following the Egyptian Revolution of

1952 and the agrarian reforms that resulted in the removal of large landlords from the

countryside (Fahim 12). With only 3 percent of its total land area being cultivated and a massive

spike in population growth, the Aswan High Dam project was seen to be a reasonable solution to

help feed Egypt’s growing population, provide electricity, and improve development (13).

The before mentioned 1959 Nile Waters Agreement played a huge role in the

construction of the High Dam. As a result of the agreement, Egypt gained more traction and

more say in projects along the Nile River and, ultimately, control of the sacred waters. While the

water carried by the Nile is anywhere from 50-80% of Ethiopian origin, Egypt – the furthest

downstream nation – has the most control of these waters (Kerisel 15). In the end, the recurring

theme that is seen time and time again regarding the Nile is that of water resource scarcity.

Analysis of the Problem

The biggest problem facing Egypt most likely lies in its history: ancient, yet inefficient,

agricultural techniques are still used to this day; the Nile River and the use of its waters has long

played throughout Egyptian politics and within the politics of foreign entities; treaties that were

inappropriately drafted decades ago still determine who can use the water of the Nile and these

were made to be highly favorable to Egypt; lastly, water diversion projects that were

implemented years ago still ultimately determine who has control over the water of the Nile

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River. In order for this water crisis to be alleviated, the history surrounding the Nile needs to be

greatly considered.

POPULATION ANALYSIS

Egyptians currently consume approximately 978 cubic meters of water per year per

capita. To put this number into perspective, the average yearly consumption per capita

worldwide is roughly 1000 cubic meters of water; Libya, Egypt's extremely arid western

neighbor uses approximately 796 cubic meters of water each year per person; while Ethiopia to

the east – and a nation through which the Nile also flows through – uses only 80 cubic meters of

water per capita each year.

The Nile River supplies Egypt with an annual allocated flow of 55.5 km3 per year under

the Nile Waters Agreement of 1959, with an estimated 0.5 km3 per year of “internal renewable

surface water resources,” and a total of actual renewable surface water resources to 56 km3 per

year (FAO). In all, Egypt has about 58.3 km3 of renewable water resources for its use each year

(FAO). It can be inferred from this data, that the problem the people of Egypt face, does not stem

from a lack of abundance.

Every year, Egypt draws approximately 58,300 cubic kilometers of water. Of this water,

roughly 86 percent of it is used for agricultural purposes, 8% of it is directed to municipalities for

individual consumption, and the remaining 6% is used for industrial purposes. Like most

developing nations, Egypt has faced a massive population growth over the past century. In the

21st century, Egypt's population growth rate has begun slowing down, and will continue to do so

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for several decades; however, if the current trend continues, we will be nearing the 22nd century

before the population stabilizes at replacement levels.

Table 1Population Growth Rate of Egypt (1950-2050)

Period Population Growth Rate (%)1950-1955 2.51

1955-1960 2.76

1960-1965 2.73

1965-1970 2.49

1970-1975 2.1

1975-1980 2.15

1980-1985 2.28

1985-1990 2.25

1990-1995 1.65

1995-2000 1.56

2000-2005 1.64

2005-2010 1.68

2010-2015 1.632015-2020 1.452020-2025 1.262025-2030 1.122030-2035 1.022035-2040 0.922040-2045 0.812045-2050 0.69

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AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION

As can be seen in figure 3, approximately 88.5% of all irrigation that takes place in Egypt

is done using surface irrigation techniques. To understand why this is significant, we will first

need to understand what surface irrigation is. To date, there are four widely used methods of

surface irrigation:

Basin irrigation: when a field is level in all directions, it is encompassed by a dyke to

prevent runoff, and provides an undirected flow of water onto the field. These basins may

be furrowed or corrugated and – provided the water flow remains undirected – they

would still be considered forms of basin irrigation. There are also several sub-types of

basin irrigation such as large basin irrigation, which is used in the US, and paddy

irrigation, which is commonly used in Asia. Basin irrigation can be used with in a wide

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Surface Irrigation88.5%

Sprinkler Irrigation5.0%

Localized Irrigation6.5%

Figure 3Irrigation Techniques in Egyptian Agriculture

variety of crops with few limitations; however, several disadvantages must be taken into

consideration, including soil crusting, rigorous maintenance of dykes, and risks of higher

than normal soil erosion without careful monitoring of the flow of water.

Border irrigation: this method can be seen as an extension of basin irrigation with a few

notable differences, such as long sloping rectangular or contoured fields that are used

instead of perfectly level fields, having free draining conditions at the lower end. The

field is divided into several sloping borders. Sloping borders are suitable for nearly any

crop except those that require prolonged ponding.

Furrow irrigation: this avoids flooding the entire field surface by channeling the flow

along the primary direction of the field. Water infiltrates perimeter and spreads vertically

and horizontally to refill the soil reservoir. There are several advantages to furrow

irrigation: the discharge per unit width of the field is substantially reduced and

topographical variations can be more severe. Likewise, a smaller wetted area reduces

evaporation losses, and the method offers more control over the amount of water used, as

well as greater flexibility because the water can be controlled in each individual furrow.

The disadvantages to this method are that there may be an increased level of salinity

between furrows, the added expense of the extra tilling required, and the difficulty in

moving equipment across the field.

Uncontrolled flooding: this method is the least efficient of the surface irrigation methods,

but is also the most easily undertaken, as it is usually only used for fodder and grazing.

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As shown in figure 4, Egypt is operating at a cropping intensity level of 176%. Cropping

intensity is defined as “the fraction of the cultivated area that is harvested.” It may be over 100%

when multiple crop cycles are harvested in the same area. The primary crop group that occupies

the majority of arable land in Egypt is the cereal and grains family, including rice, maize, and

wheat. This takes up a total area of 2,500,000 hectares, which is roughly 40% of the arable land

in Egypt.

The next most prominent crop family is the fodder crops such as alfalfa and berseem:

“Irrigated forages contribute about 18% of the value of field crops and are grown on the average

on about 1,260,000 ha annually” (FAO). The remaining 40% of arable land is used by the rest of

the agricultural crops produced in Egypt: fruits, vegetables, cotton, oils, roots and tubers, and

others.

The Egyptian agricultural model has come a long way in the past half century; however,

there is still much room for improvement, not only in its efficiency of production, but also in the

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efficiency of allocation. While Egypt is relatively self-sustainable in most of its agriculture, the

production of cereals, sugar, and oils are detrimental to its sustainability, as Egypt is one of the

world’s largest food importers: “Agricultural imports in 2001 included 4.4 million tonnes of

wheat and wheat flour, 4.7 million tonnes of yellow maize, 0.6 million tonnes of vegetable oils

and 0.4 million tonnes of sugar. On the other hand, the main export crops were, amongst others,

53000 tonnes of cotton, 444,000 tonnes of rice, 176000 tonnes of potatoes and 37000 tonnes of

citrus” (FAO). As such options should be explored as to whether it would be more efficient for

Egypt to allocate greater amounts of resources to these high import level crops or would it be

better to allocate less, and simply import more.

As can be seen in figure 5, Egypt experiences rates of evaporation between 4 and 12 mm

of water each day, depending on the region and time of year. Typical rates of evaporation in

more temperate climates tend to be lower, for example in the northern Xinjiang province of

china, evaporation rates tend to fall between 1300 and 2300 mm per year, averaging out to

3.5mm per day and 6.3 mm per day (Chen).

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Figure 5: evaporation rates throughout Nile River

Source: International Journal of Geosciences

Furthermore, looking at figure 5, we can see that Egypt experiences rates of evaporation

between 4 and 12 mm of water each day, depending on the region and time of year. Typical rates

of evaporation in more temperate climates tend to be lower, for example in the northern Xinjiang

province of china, evaporation rates tend to fall between 1300 and 2300 mm per year, averaging

out to 3.5mm per day and 6.3 mm per day. (Chen).

Upon the review of Egyptian irrigation practices, and subsequent review of the rates of

evaporation within Egypt, it is apparent that the current practices of irrigation expose Egyptian

farmers to rates of evaporation that are not sustainable given the necessary scale of agriculture

needed to feed Egypt’s growing population.

ECONOMIC FACTORS

Egypt’s dependence on the Nile River places its country’s livelihood at stake. The Nile is

Egypt’s largest water resource, apportioning 75.2% of the nation’s water reserve and its yearly

potential allocations are tapped. As it is the most fruitful and important area of the nation, the

majority of economic enterprises occur here, in the extremely fertile Nile valley. The GDP in

Egypt was estimated at $84.4 billion (USD) in 2003, with agriculture assuming 14.5% of the

composition, while the majority is attributed to services (48%) & industry (37.5%) (Africa:

Egypt). Even though agriculture makes up a smaller percentage of the GDP, it employs almost a

third of the labor force, structured of a nearly even distribution of males and females.

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Agriculture

With the lowest GDP percentage, agriculture annually consumes the largest amount of

water resources at about 80% of the nation’s total reserves (Africa: Egypt). Poor irrigation &

distribution systems continue to be a main source of water waste, adversely affecting economic

policy. As a result of current, and foreseeable future use, “fresh water is expected to decline from

711 m3 in 28 to 55 m3 in 2030” (El-Nahrawy). The economy depends on the agricultural sector to

provide produce, animal feed & fiber, among other necessities. Water resources are being

utilized passed its limitations.

Water Price

In relation to the dependence on water by the country, water prices are set relatively low

in Egypt. In fact, the public generally does not pay for water, but the government does. By

leaving prices where they are, water use is not highly regulated and the government relies on the

decisions of the public. Responsible utilization of water is not highly stressed without

encouraging conservative tactics, or incentives, so water usage continues to get out of hand. If

the government does not make the public more contentious to the prominent shortage of water,

the country will not have enough to support itself.

In 1997, it was estimated that 26.5 percent of the Egyptian population was living in

poverty. The percentage was higher in rural than in urban areas and the incidence of poverty and

"ultra poverty" was highest in Upper Egypt, while a larger absolute number of poor households

was found in Lower Egypt because of the concentration of population there. In rural areas, about

29 percent of the population was living in poverty, compared to 23 percent of the urban

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inhabitants. Inadequate social services, landlessness, small farm size and inadequate off-farm

income opportunities are the main causes of rural poverty (Egypt).

Access to Water

Most of the population (about 99.3%) has access to improved water sources in both urban

and rural parts of Egypt. These infrastructures include piped water to an individual plot or

residence, a public tap, secure dug well or even access to a secure spring or rainwater collection.

All improved water access points are considered clean and secure by Egypt (Africa: Egypt).

However, the unfair economic dilemma comes to play with means of transportation. The

majority of people, who have to haul water for lengths before arriving at their dwelling, are

typically the poor living in rural areas or urban slums. In Cairo, the already impoverished

community purchase transportation at 40 times the actual cost (Behr). They are faced with the

option of walking great distances, carrying their buckets of water, or they must purchase delivery

from independent dealers for very steep rates. The cost of transportation depends on both vertical

and horizontal distance from water sources. Living on, or near the Mediterranean or Nile River

ensures a lower rate than those who live in rural communities farther away. The responsibility of

payment for much of the shipping costs have been reliant on the Egyptian government, although

options to make water a public utility has been considered in the past.

Trading Policies

In the recent past, key cities of Egypt have pursued major economic reforms to entice

foreign investment and to internally enable progress. An economic strategy partially in place,

supported globally and by the World Bank, centers on imports to compensate for diminishing

water supplies. “Virtual” water trading takes advantage of countries’ inherent national

23

comparative advantages. Countries with small agricultural sectors, or water scarcities,

concentrate their exports to goods with higher capital yield in order to make trades for

sustenance from water-abundant nations. This requires good international relations and low

agricultural trade barriers.

Annually, Egypt exports $24.81 billion in attempts to equalize economic status in trade.

Currently, those exports are mostly attributed to crude oil and petroleum products, in addition to

various textiles, chemical & metal products. Egypt is one of the largest importers in the world, at

a price of $59.22 billion annually, as a result of water necessities for produce. Over half of

Egypt’s food holdings are imported to support the demands of the nation. Egypt would be quite

self-sufficient if there wasn’t such a reliance on wheat, sugar, and oil harvest imports. “Virtual”

water trade does produce a reduction in water consumption; Egypt’s national water use did

decrease by 5% from importing maize rather than nationally harvesting it. These trade practices

are disproportionately beneficial; however, as the advantages are mostly realized in urban

populations.

Those living and operating in rural environments – mostly poor farmers – can actually be

hindered through these trade practices. Imported foods become more easily accessible within

large areas but are not distributed evenly across the nation. Farmers are also not able to sell their

produce at the same rate, instead being forced to compete with international prices. If their

produce is already devalued, the farmers have less money to use for transportation to the cities as

well and their livelihood may be forced to rely on government subsidies.

Tourism

One of Egypt’s most profitable sectors has long been tourism. While these rates have

fluctuated over the past few years, the government is pushing to increase its presence. National

24

historical and cultural attractions annually draw millions of tourists to the region. Over 12.8

million tourists flocked to Egypt in 2008 to visit the numerous sites, museums, and marketplaces.

The tourism sector is very important to the country as more than $11 billion (USD) was gained

in revenue that year (The Importance). Tourism may be a lower factor in regards to Egypt’s

growing water shortage; however, the amplified pressure to please tourists with already

compressed water resources puts strains on the competitions for water allocations.

Travelers can directly affect water quantities and quality as a result of increases to freshwater

extraction and discharges through untreated sewage systems. Other adverse effects of tourism

include damages to the ecosystem by overfishing, misuse of coral, sedimentation from runoff, as

well as sharp declines of wetlands for resorts. The attempt to urbanize farmland poses a severe

threat to the Egyptian agricultural sector and the use of water within the region. Tourism is able

to leave drastic impacts to a nation’s resources, economic, social, cultural and even political

structure in either negative or positive directions. As a result, the stated consequences of tourism

on water assets must be considered, especially within more populous, urban areas where

travelers frequent.

CONCLUSION

Should measures be taken to increase the efficiency of the Egyptian agricultural

practices, measures also need to be taken to ensure that the impoverished rural inhabitants – who

are already at a significant disadvantage due to a lack of non-farm income opportunities – are not

further damaged by changes to the system of agriculture itself.

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Chapter 2: Policy Problems and Solutions

INTRODUCTION

In order to address Egypt’s growing water crisis, a multitude of solutions had to be

analyzed and discussed. These possible solutions include the utilization of soil moisture sensors,

enacting a water capping policy, and creating Sensa systems along the Nile River Basin.

Solutions had to be made keeping a variety of factors in mind: first, solutions had to have as little

of a negative impact as possible on upstream countries; second, solutions must take into account

environmental impacts of the entire Nile River Basin; last, solutions must benefit the majority of

people in Egypt without great harm to any one group of people.

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TABLED PLANS

While many solutions were looked at, these were quickly found to not be feasible or to be

insufficient in their outcomes produced.  Of the tabled solutions, the first takes into account

desalination plants. Desalination plants involve the expensive creation of factories that can

convert seawater into potable water by removing the salt and other impurities from it. This

process has been very successful in countries like Israel; however, because most of Egypt’s

population lies on the Nile, this would do little to alleviate Egypt’s problems. A second tabled

solution is the Jonglei Canal, which was a proposed plan to divert water around the Sudd

Swamps in South Sudan and carry this water to the White Nile. Around 50% of the water that

flows into the Sudd Swamps evaporates by the time it reaches the White Nile, so construction for

this plan was started, but shortly ended in 1983 following the war. The Canal would potentially

increase Egypt’s water supply by 5% to 7%, but this is simply not enough to address their

problems and is but a temporary solution. Also, there is a large and unforeseen amount of

environmental, social, and human impact due to the importance of the Sudd wetlands for its

biodiversity. Furthermore, the cost of construction – while it would employ many people –

would be great and would require much foreign direct investment (FDI).

27

WATER PRICING

Description

Water is one facet that is not generally set at a competitive rate according to its value.

Other food commodities requiring much water to be cultivated, such as wheat & rice, are set at a

globally competitive price. Globally, the expense of water-rich goods is also steadily becoming

more expensive. Inflation within global food prices could surge 2-3 times the current rate, in the

upcoming decades (Behr).  One option Egypt has to help cover the costs associated with its

current water usage, and to promote water conservation can be found in water pricing.  This

financial measure would consider and calculate water usage as a public utility, instead of relying

on government subsidies.

Resources

Access to potable water is undoubtedly a critical aspect in sustaining life; as a result,

water prices are generally set much lower than the real cost of securing, treating, and distributing

water in order for all people to have access. Unfortunately, responsible practices of water

conservation are not highly encouraged, nor is the responsible utilization of current supplies

incentivized. While the abundance of water usage within the nation is not from private utilization

of citizens, reform from a variety of sectors is advised. One possible option to preserve water

resources derives from limiting consumption within the nation. As a result of mostly unregulated

water consumption, usage continues to be a problem within the nation.  There is a clear positive

correlation between water use and water scarcity, which plays a significant role in Egypt’s

current water crisis (Abdin). Allowing public consumers to pay the costs of utilizing depleting

water supplies make users more aware of usage.

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The first implementation of a price increase for potable water in nearly a decade occurred

in mid-2014. The price change only affects households who monthly deplete over 10000 liters of

water (First Price Hike). The hope is that the burden of this new tariff does not fall to low-

income families and instead plans to consider different socioeconomic tiers and user

consumption rates when increasing price. A representative for the Holding Company for Water

and Waste (HCWW), Mohie Eddin El-Serafy, explained that “we won’t touch the low-income

and poor families who are included in the first tranche of consumption, along with 60 percent of

subscribers” (First Price Hike).

Foreseen Problems

The intentions to not promulgate policies which heavily impose on those living below the

poverty line is good in theory, but not always enforced.Many households are not attentive to the

amount of water their family consumes. Many living quarters either do not have a water meter, it

is in a difficult location to find, or the entire building shares one meter. As a result, an estimated

fee may be paid for by a tenant to landlord, even entire buildings are charged an estimated sum

(First Price Hike). The lack of accurate information given to families lends an unfair advantage

to corrupt utility collectors who wield their power & can overcharge consumers.

While increasing water prices for public usage may be an economical answer, other

factors involved hinder feasibility. Water pricing is most effective within urban communities,

where population & usage is high. However, urban communities in Egypt contain enormous

amounts poverty as well.  Approximately 23% of all urban inhabitants are living in poverty; this

percentage is higher in Cairo, Egypt’s largest city. Once the price for water is settled, delivery is

still a factor. The poor are forced to pay 40 times the actual cost of transportation (Behr).These

29

inhabitants do not have the monetary resources to purchase water as it is, and therefore cannot

afford a larger price hike.

VIRTUAL WATER TRADE

Description

“Virtual water” has become a resolution for nations who lack, or overuse, the water

requirements necessary to sustain a national populous & balance economic factors. Virtual water

trade refers to trading policies between water abundant nations and nations experience water

scarcities. This policy can be considered in regards of water quantities required for agricultural

production. Crops, which require a large amount of water to produce, are harvested by nations

with an abundance of water, and countries with water scarcities import these harvests while

reserving their supplies. Water scarce nations, such as Egypt, focus their agricultural sector on

producing harvests that do not require much water. These nations then export their surplus

harvests in exchange to import water intensive goods.

Resources

The Egyptian economy relies comprehensively on the agricultural sector for food, feed &

other necessary products. Since the agricultural sector consumes over 80% of all water within the

nation, an adjustment of harvest must be considered. Currently, Egypt’s farmers are limited by

their resources to produce mandatory requirements to sustain the nation’s demands. The water

scarcities of the region put more pressure on the agricultural sector to reduce water usage on the

30

already limited arable land (El-Nahrawy). In order to sustain the nation’s agricultural needs,

virtual water trading policies should be considered.

The chart on the right represents the

differences of Egyptian agricultural imports and

exports by item percentages. Cereals and “other

food products” are the largest composition to

imports. Another import of just fewer than 10% is

meat products: meat products are an essential

import as a result of the grains and other products

necessary to generate quality animal feed. These are

items concentrated heavily on water embedded

grains and other harvests to alleviate the stress on

the Egyptian marketplace for water-intensive products. The exports column is highly comprised

of ‘all other food’ category; this item is largely the product of high exports of processed foods.

There is also an increase to the Dairy Products & Eggs sector as these items & processed foods

use less water and can also be cheaper for a nation to make, causing this item to be a beneficial

export.

In order to compensate for their diminishing water supplies, the nation relies heavily on

water intensive imports such as cereals, wheat, maize/corn, and other agricultural commodities

that require high levels of water provisions. Annually, Egypt exports $24.81 billion in attempts

to equalize economic status in trade (Africa: Egypt). Over half of Egypt’s food holdings are

imported to support the demands of the nation. Egypt would be quite self-sufficient if there

wasn’t such a reliance on wheat, sugar, & oil harvest imports. As an example, Egypt is able to

31

Figure 6

Source: FAO of the UN

reduce “its national water consumption by 5 percent” by importing maize rather than cultivating

it (Behr). The chart above outlines water consumption by different food harvests. Attempts to

import foods that are high on the list, while harvesting and exporting foods on the lower scale is

ideal.

Many international trade expansionist critics argue against ‘virtual’ water exchanges in

the marketplace. The World Bank reports that “"In Morocco, for example, one study showed that

while the nation as a whole would benefit from agricultural trade liberalization, those benefits

would be concentrated on the urban population”. The flaw then, is that only those living in urban

settings would reap the benefits. Income and jobs are taken from poor, rural farmers and

reallocated to agriculturalists in other water-rich nations. In Egypt, the agricultural sector

consists of 29% of the labor force; this segment of the population tends to be poor rural farmers

as well (Africa: Egypt). Local farmers can be hindered by increases to international trade as they

are forced to compete with international price standards. The harvests in Egypt are already

devalued in the national marketplace, and farmers struggle to remain competitive in their

livelihoods.

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Table 2: Water Intensity of Foods

Source: FAO of the UN

Egypt is also not equipped to balance this escalation of imports with their current

financial situations. They have a devaluing currency due to high public debt, which is linked in

part, with swelling international imports. Financial experts claim that the devaluation of Egypt’s

pound is a necessary step in the process of reviving the economy (Yahya). This promotes foreign

investment and growth within the Egyptian marketplace while prices are low.

The balance between imports and exports of water intensive goods with Egypt is a

struggle that could be the defining character within the nation’s water policy. The economic

instability of the region requires thoughtful consideration of all international trade agreements to

ensure the prosperity of all peoples. If Egypt can increase production in high value harvests and

products to export, then virtual water trading may be a feasible option.

Foreseen Problems

High levels of importation and trading techniques require stable relations within the

global marketplace. Egypt must assess current affiliations of their trading partners to ensure that

the national interests are not likely to change within coming years. Global prices of foods that

would be imported must also be considered across nations to confirm competitive prices of

imports and exports.

Furthermore, trade policies to compensate for excessive water usage within the

agricultural sector do not evaluate environmental alterations that may arise. As farmers have

been tending their harvests in the same manner for hundreds of years, limiting water resources on

the land could have unforeseen consequences. It is possible that the water levels may be

maintaining fertilization levels of soil, or that the land may be home to a number of animals who

require a high volume of water to survive.

33

SOIL MOISTURE SENSORS

Description

One of the areas to be improved – which has a great potential for increased efficiency – is

within the agriculture and irrigation practices of Egypt. There is a wide range of methods for

achieving this goal, each with different benefits, costs, and timescales. The simplest method for

improving the Egyptian irrigation and agricultural practices is the implementation of soil

moisture sensors in the Egyptian farmland across the country. These sensors can be both wired or

wireless, and depending on the size of the farm, both have distinct benefits and costs. For the

majority of farms in Egypt, simple wired Gypsum block sensors will suffice.

T

T

34

Figure 7: detail of a soil moisture sensor gypsum block

There are a variety of sensor probes available for use: coaxial impedance dielectric

reflectometry sensors, frequency domain reflectometry sensors, and gypsum block sensors.

Considering that gypsum block sensors have the lowest unit cost of any available sensors, and

given the relatively poor economic status of Egypt’s farmers, our focus will primarily be on

implementing this technology. Gypsum block sensors use two electrodes placed into a small

block of gypsum to measure soil water tension. Wires connected to the electrodes are connected

to either a portable hand-held reader or a data logger. The amount of water in the soil is

determined by the electrical resistance between the two electrodes within the gypsum block

(SoilSensor.com).

For larger farms, it would be impractical to place wired sensors, which must be checked

regularly at various places in each field to obtain an accurate reading. For these farms, the recent

innovations in wireless sensor technology will be extremely beneficial: Types of wireless

technologies being developed range from simple IrDA that uses infrared light for short-range,

point-to-point communications, to wireless personal area network (WPAN) for short range,

point-to multi-point communications, such as Bluetooth and ZigBee, to mid-range, multi-hop

wireless local area network (WLAN), to long-distance cellular phone systems, such as

GSM/GPRS and CDMA.” (SoilSensor.com).

Additionally, there is already data available that suggests these wireless sensors - when

properly implemented over a large area - can have dramatic effects on the amount of water used.

As seen in the work of Miguel Damas, researchers developed and tested a distributed, remotely

operated, automatic irrigation system to control 1500 hectares of an irrigated area in Spain. The

area was divided into seven sub-regions with a total of 1850 hydrants installed. Each sub-region

was monitored and controlled by a control sector. The seven control sectors communicated to

35

each other and with a central control through a WLAN network. Field tests showed 30–60%

saving in water usage.” (Wang). To achieve even a 30% reduction in water use in the agricultural

sector of Egypt would equate to a savings of almost 20 cubic kilometers of water each year,

which is why these soil sensors may be the most efficient and effective method of reducing

Egyptian agricultural water use.

Resources

Gypsum block sensors are relatively inexpensive and can be installed by people with

little to no technical training in soil sensor installation; these sensors also require no integrated

circuitry to be utilized. Checking the resistance within the gypsum block can be done with a

simple ohmmeter, or multimeter.

Gypsum block sensors can be made with very little in the way of knowledge and tools,

and at a very low cost of materials. In one scenario, a gypsum block sensor can be made using

the tools and materials found below (in USD):

Gypsum mixed with water to make plaster of pariso Wholesale cost of $99 per metric tonne

2 galvanized finish nailso Wholesale cost of $500-$700 per metric tonne

1/2 inch plastic tubingo Wholesale price of $.01-$.02 per meter (reusable material)

Utility knifeo Wholesale price of $.03-$.05 per piece (tool)

Multimetero Wholesale price of about $5 per unit

Assuming average per unit costs of $10, plus around $5 for a multimeter, supplying these

units to 300,000 farms in Egypt would cost approximately $4,500,000. With the low wholesale

prices of these products, it is within reason that these sensors could be manufactured within

Egypt, limiting exposure to risk of supply chain disruptions.

36

Foreseen Problems

While gypsum block sensors have a great potential to increase Egypt’s agricultural

efficiency, there are several drawbacks to their use that must be kept in mind. First and foremost,

these sensors must be replaced regularly, as the gypsum disintegrates over time. Additionally, the

readings they provide may be inaccurate in soils of high salinity, which is a major problem

facing Egypt. In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in soil salinity, which then leads to

soil degradation.

Therefore, the solution found below, carries a unique advantage in that it simultaneously

tackles this second problem. The Seawater Greenhouse was an agricultural experiment that arose

in the central desert of Australia. Similar to a conventional greenhouse, it allows for more closely

monitored growing of the crops within it, as well as providing protection from wind and other

harsh weather elements.

SEAWATER GREENHOUSES

Description

Seawater greenhouses are structures that utilize nearby seawater to provide cool, humid,

and favorable growing conditions for the plants inside. The process of seawater condensation

within these greenhouses is described in the steps below:

1. Outside air that is moving into the greenhouse is first cooled and humidified by seawater.

37

2. As the air leaves the growing area, it passes through the second evaporator, over which

seawater is flowing. This seawater has been heated by the sun in a network of pipes

above the growing area, making the air much hotter and more humid.

3. Then, the air meets a series of vertical pipes through which cool seawater passes. When

the hot humid air meets the cool surfaces, fresh water will condense as droplets that run

down to the base where they can be collected.

4. In addition, the excess freshwater created in the seawater greenhouse can be used to

irrigate additional crops grown outside the greenhouse.

Resources

The cool and humid conditions in the greenhouse enable crops to grow with very little

water. When crops are not stressed by excessive transpiration, both the yield and the quality are

higher. The simplicity of the process imitates the hydrological cycle where seawater heated by

the sun evaporates, cools down to form clouds, and returns to the earth as rain, fog, or dew.

The benefits that can be realized from the use of the Seawater Greenhouse are many.

The projected costs of construction for these greenhouses would be approximately $50

USD per square meter, which is substantial when considering that these farms will have to be

built on a larger scale in order to be efficient and sustainable (source: Charlie Paton, managing

director of Seawater Greenhouse LTD in direct correspondence).

Fresh Water: the water produced from desalinated seawater is completely pure and

requires no chemical treatment; in addition, any excess water not used in the greenhouse

can be used in a variety of way. It can be used on crops outside of the greenhouse, or it

can be put to use in various commercial and industrial applications that require distilled

water.

38

Pesticide reduction: the seawater evaporators found in Seawater Greenhouse have a

biocidal and scrubbing effect on the ventilation airflow, minimizing the occurrences of

pests commonly found in conventional agriculture.

Land: seawater greenhouses enable land to be used that would otherwise be unsuitable

for conventional agriculture. It also gives degraded fields ample time to regenerate.

Salt and mineral production: salt gained in the process can be sold, as well as the other

minerals that have been used as crop nutrients.

Cost-effective: commercial grade crop yields, coupled with significantly lower capital

and operating costs, result in enhanced operator economics.

Foreseen Problems

The Seawater Greenhouse is not without its drawbacks, such as higher cost of

implementation than other proposed solutions; however, the unique benefits that it provides may

prove to be worthwhile. With such a substantial initial price, the Egyptian government, including

the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, will have difficulty in securing and providing the

funding for this project. Likewise, the Egyptian economy is in a poor state as of recent years, so

this will also prove to be another hurdle. It is likely that some type of foreign investment will be

needed in order to secure the funds necessary for this project; however, there will be some

amount of political backlash due to the distrust of foreign direct investment (FDI). One way

around this problem is in the use of impact investing, which involves companies or smaller

entities to provide funding for a single project or a social cause. Nonetheless, the political will of

the Egyptian government is crucial for this project, as it requires a central authority to ensure that

the appropriate funds are being used, the project timeline is followed completely, and that

construction is done properly and in a sustainable manner.

39

CONCLUSION

Of the solutions discussed, Egypt’s future most likely lies in solutions that are multi-

dimensional and comprehensive, taking a variety of factors into account. The most feasible and

beneficial method would be for Egypt to focus on agriculture, as the majority of Egypt’s water is

lost in the farming irrigation methods that are too inefficient or wasteful. It is solutions in this

arena that will be not only the most impactful, but also the most within our client’s (the Ministry

of Irrigation and Water Resources) ability to direct policy towards.

40

Chapter 3:Final Proposed Solutions

INTRODUCTION

In order to alleviate the problems facing Egypt’s growing water crisis, a combination of

the previously discussed solutions will have to be utilized to create a multidimensional solution

that lessens the water crisis on all fronts. As mentioned before, the majority of Egypt’s water is

lost due to agricultural inefficiency; therefore, the majority of our effort will be focused in that

sector. The solution will continue to incorporate the three policy goals: first, solutions must have

as little of a negative impact as possible on upstream countries; second, solutions must take into

account environmental impacts of the entire Nile River Basin; third, solutions must benefit the

majority of people in Egypt without great harm to any particular group of people. In order to best

meet the needs of the Egyptian people and government, our solution has been separated into a 2-

year plan, a 5-year plan, and a 15-year plan for achieving maximum sustainability within Egypt’s

agricultural sector.

41

2-YEAR PLAN

Building a Task Force

The first step in implementing the policies that we have put forward shall be the organization of

a task force, which will oversee the implementation of all policy goals. This task force will be

referred to as the Egyptian Progressive Water Task Force (EPWT) in order to clearly state its

goals of water conservation and smarter water usage. The task force shall be responsible for the

oversight of all Egyptian policies put in place towards the goal of water use reform. Upon its

organization, this task force’s goal will be to organize a coalition of impact investors, agricultural

scientists, and government representatives into a semi-private foundation and venture capital

firm to address the agricultural policy recommendations, The Foundation for Egyptian

Agricultural Investment (FEAI).

This foundation shall be divided into several branches. Firstly, the impact venture capital

branch, whose mission will be solely focused on obtaining private funding from impact

investment institutions and socially conscious individuals. The second branch, the Operations

and Logistics branch, shall be comprised of both private and public employees, and will be

responsible for the implementation of progressive agricultural projects, such as the construction

of seawater greenhouses and the distribution of soil moisture sensors to individual farmers within

Egypt, as well as the facilitation of private and government underwritten loans to said farmers to

aid in their investments in agricultural infrastructure. The third and final branch of this

organization, the Agricultural Research and Policy branch, will be composed of agricultural

scientists, economists, and regional representatives elected by individual farmers, whose primary

goals will be to further study the effects the policies put in place, and to further modify and

42

improve these policies for the benefit of the Egyptian agricultural sector. Furthermore, the

majority of funding set forth for this branch will primarily come from government grants, as this

branch is most concerned with research and the recommendation of policy modifications. These

individual branches will each have one or more representatives on the board of directors to direct

the overall policies of the foundation, whereas a president, at the recommendation of the board,

will oversee the day-to-day operations. The EPWT will also select from the CEO and Chairman

of the Board amongst the board members.

The board of said foundation shall answer to the EPWT, and shall annually put forward a

budget proposal for expenses related to research borne by the Agricultural Research and Policy

branch. The Chairman of the Board, who will be responsible for bringing the policy

recommendations and proposals given by the EPWT to the attention of the board of directors,

will act as the middleman between the Foundation for Egyptian Agricultural Investment (FEAI)

and the Egyptian Progressive Water Task Force. The goal of this organizational structure is to

allow this semi-private, for-profit foundation, to exist in a way that maximizes its effectiveness

in implementing policy in a way that is beneficial for both farmers and investors, as well as

allowing for government funding and policy to be involved in the overall process while

mitigating the Foundation's risk of being subject to the whims of politics.

Feasibility and Implementation

This portion of the program will undoubtedly prove to be the most challenging.

Specifically regarding the cooperation of the Egyptian Parliament, should the Egyptian

government not come to an agreement, budgetary constraints may arise. The initial funding for

the program would be required to come from the ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, so

43

cooperation within the government will be necessary. If an agreement in the general assembly of

parliament was found, the path moving forward would prove far easier.

As the task force would be comprised of primarily ministers and staff from the Ministry

of Water Resources and Irrigation, budget requirements will be relatively low. Assuming the

number of extra staff for this task force is to be 15 new staff members who are paid a weekly

salary of 964 Egyptian pounds - as per the average of public sector employees in Egypt - total

yearly spending on additional salaries for staff members of the task force would be 98,280 USD

or about 100,000 USD for the sake of simplicity.

The budgetary requirements for staffing and general overhead at the FEAI will initially

be larger as it shall require a greater number of additional staff, as well as costs that include the

rent on office space, utilities, and equipment. Average rent for office space in Egypt is about 45

USD per square meter each month. Accounting for a space to house 30 staff members, 3

directors, 1 president, and 1 chief executive officer, roughly 300 square meters of office space

should suffice for this foundation. Therefore, we can assume the cost of rent to be approximately

12,000 USD per month and 145,000 USD per year. Average salaries would most likely fall

within the range of public sector employee salaries at 964 Egyptian pounds per week and with 30

employees, total wages would be twice the amount for the task force, or 200,000 USD per year.

Likewise, equipment costs are estimated to cost around 50,000 USD with the general overhead

cost of 25,000 USD. Thus, total costs for the first year would be 520,000 USD.

44

Table 3Egyptian Progressive Water Task Force (EPWT) Budget Plan

Total Salaries $300,000

Rent $145,000

Equipment $50,000

Overhead $25,000

Total Costs $520,000

5-YEAR PLAN

Soil Moisture Sensor Technology

Egypt’s agricultural sector is plagued by an overall inefficiency of water usage on both

the larger and the smaller scales. A nation rich with culture and history, Egypt was once the

breadbasket of North Africa, as well as the entire Roman Empire, developing advanced

agricultural techniques such as the shaduf for irrigation and using the Nile to flood their fields.

Today, however, many Egyptians still use these traditional farming methods, which – by modern

day standards – are extremely ineffective and wasteful of precious resources. Therefore, creating

a solution that encourages a more effective use of water is one of the top priorities for resolving

Egypt’s water crisis. The widespread use of soil moisture sensors is the first step to helping

Egyptian farmers properly allocate and utilize their water. First, the types of soil moisture

sensors that will be used are to be examined for maximum efficiency, as well as the ways in

which these sensors may help reduce water usage among agriculturists; second, the methods of

distributing and monitoring the efficacy of these sensors will be discussed.

45

While there are many different types of sensors, the ones that will be most effective in

Egypt are gypsum block soil moisture sensors. Gypsum blocks use two electrodes placed into a

small block of gypsum to measure soil water tension. Wires connected to the electrodes are

connected to either a portable hand-held reader or a data logger. The amount of water in the soil

is measured by the electrical resistance between the two electrodes within the gypsum block

(Soil Sensors and Technology). These sensors may use either wired or wireless technology to

monitor the moisture in the soil, but wired technology is less expensive. An advantage to using

gypsum block sensors is that they are relatively inexpensive and can be installed by people with

little to no technical training. Likewise, these sensors have been proven to instill a 30% to 60%

reduction in water use in similar climates, which would equate to a saving of almost 20 cubic

kilometers of water each year in Egypt (Damas). However, there are some disadvantages, such as

the fact that these sensors must be replaced regularly: the gypsum disintegrates over time and the

readings they provide may be inaccurate in soils with high salinity content.

The Egyptian Progressive Water Task Force should first aim to distribute these soil

moisture sensors to all farmers, both in the more rural areas that cultivate land on a smaller scale,

as this is where the most inefficient irrigation methods are used, as well as on larger farms, as

these allocate a larger amount of water on average. To begin, the task force should greatly

subsidize the sensors that smaller agriculturists will be receiving and use wired gypsum block

sensors for these farms, as these are less expensive and simpler to operate. For larger farms, the

task force should utilize wireless technology. This is due to the fact that it would be impractical

to place wired sensors that must be checked regularly at various places in each field in order to

obtain accurate readings. For these farms, the recent innovations in wireless sensor technology

will be extremely beneficial and will be easier to monitor. Additionally, there is already data

46

available that suggests that when these wireless sensors are properly implemented over a large

area, they can have dramatic effects on the amount of water used: up to 60% less (Damas).

Trading Policies

International trading between nations is a viable and imperative option for the nation of Egypt to

be sustainable. Currently, Egypt imports over half of its food resources. These main imports are

focused on water-intensive crops such as wheat, cereals and sugar. The importation of water-

intensive crops sustains the nation, since Egypt does not currently have the water resources to

produce the variety of harvests required. Egypt needs to increase these imports to reduce water

usage within the agricultural sector and reallocate farmers to harvest other, less water intensive

crops for exportation. The reallocation of farmers to non-water intensive cultivations in order to

increase produce for exportation will assist the financial need required to sustain an increase in

importation. Egypt exports $24.81 billion annually, mainly in oil and cotton products (Africa:

Egypt). An increase in low water agricultural cultivations for exportation must be a priority. As a

result, both Egypt’s imports and exports should increase in order to balance the financials

associated with increased importation and to withstand the current water scarcity within the

nation.

Feasibility and Implementation

Both goals stated within the 5-year plan are feasible. Trading policies designed around

the importation of water intensive goods are simply an expansion of policy currently in place.

Focusing domestic agricultural production on goods of lower water intensity, while preparing to

change production to goods of greater revenue potential as practices become more efficient, are

goals that that can to be reachable in the span of 5 years. The rollout of soil moisture sensors

47

within a period of 5 years IS as well. This estimates that it will take the foundation

approximately 1 year to accumulate the capital necessary to begin the project. One year more to

accumulate resources necessary to begin the production of sensor systems, while simultaneously

rolling out a large public awareness campaign, primarily in rural areas where these systems will

be used, but also in urban areas. During year five, distribution of soil moisture systems will

begin, as well as opportunities to train farmers in the use of this new technology.

15-YEAR PLAN

Seawater Greenhouses

The implementation of seawater greenhouses will take place over a 15-year period. It will

be the mission of the Egyptian Agricultural Investment foundation to secure funding, and to

facilitate the construction of said greenhouses for individual farmers. Funding shall come from

the capital secured by the venture capital branch of the Egyptian Agricultural Investment

Foundation. Should they be required, loans will be brokered by officers from the Operations and

Logistics branch, and underwritten by either the EAIF, or by the Egyptian Government for

qualified borrowers.

These Greenhouses, when properly implemented, will increase water use efficiency by

nearly 4000%, which will drastically cut the amount of water Egypt’s Agricultural Sector uses as

a whole as the proliferation of these greenhouses continues. The overarching goals of these

seawater greenhouses are to decrease crop water intensity, increase yields, and overall increase

48

profits for individual farmers, which would then be used for further investments in improvements

to agricultural infrastructure and expansion of agricultural operations.

Trading Policies

With the implementation of Greenhouses as a long-term solution, cash crops can be beneficial to

the nation. These highly concentrated water harvests will be able to sustain Egypt’s nourishment

with overflow for exportation to other water-scarce nations. The Greenhouse foundations will

require an implementation period, but given enough time, Egypt will see a return on its

investment. After the program is grounded and secure, then the policy to increase cash crop

exportation can be realized.

Feasibility and Implementation

The probability of encountering cultural and political pushback from this project is minimal.

Several similar projects have already begun in Egypt under the administration of various non-

governmental organizations (NGOs), which have been incredibly well received. Costs for the

construction of seawater greenhouses will depend largely on the rate won in bidding by the

contractor. For the moment, we will use the average cost of $50 USD per square meter, as

unofficially quoted by Charlie Paton of Seawater Greenhouse Limited. At this assumed price, a

20,000 square meter greenhouse would cost around $1,000,000 USD, with the total costs of the

construction for 20 of these greenhouses being $20,000,000; this price, however, is subject to

change.

Additionally, Egypt’s current cereal yield per hectare is 7,253 kilograms per hectare.

Hydroponic or greenhouse agriculture typically sees five times the yield of open field

agriculture, as compared to the 2-cycle per year production - the number of crop cycles Egyptian

49

farmers typically are able to harvest. Therefore, a 2-hectare (20,000 square meter) seawater

greenhouse facility would see an average yield of 72,530 kilograms, compared to the 14,506

kilograms produced in an open field of the same size. As a result, Egyptian farmers willing to

cooperate in these seawater greenhouse facilities would see revenues five times higher than

previously seen. This drastic increase in revenue has also been estimated before taking into

account the efficiency of seawater greenhouses, which generally have lower operating costs that

range between 10-25% and lowered fixed costs that range between 10-15%, producing returns

15-35% greater than those produced by conventional greenhouses.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, it is through these policy recommendations set forth in this analysis that

we hope to, first and foremost, reduce the amount of water consumed in Egypt. It is also,

however, our hope that the byproducts of these policy recommendations shall bring to Egypt a

reduced dependence on imported foods to feed its people, an increase in exports which would

take advantage of Egypt’s currently weak currency, and a far more robust Egyptian agricultural

sector as a whole.

50

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