Final

An Evaluation of the Active Labour Market for Youth

Programme (2008-2010)

Frank Kavanagh

Labour Market Consultant

Dublin May 2012

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Evaluation of Active Labour Market for Youth (2008-2010)

Table of Contents

Page #o.

Executive Summary 3

1. Introduction 8

2. Methodology 9

3. Description of Programmes 10

3.1 On the Job Training 12

3.2 Institution and Enterprise based training 13

3.2 Internship Programme 13

4. Interviews and meetings with Project actors 14

4.1 MLSW 14

4.2Gjilan District 14

4.3 Peja District 16

5. Impacts and Outcomes 17

5.1 Overall impacts of ALMPs 18

5.2 Impact of ALMPs by Programme and year 21

6. Process 23

7. Cost-Benefit Analysis 25

8. Project Design and Relevance 29

8.1 Best Practice in tackling Youth Unemployment 29

8.2 What works-successful aspects identified 31

8.3 Other Parallel Projects 32

9. Conclusions 34

Appendix 1 PES Course in Counselling and Guidance skills 38

Appendix 2 Labour market Profiling of the disadvantaged and vulnerable 40

Appendix 3 Other Activities undertaken by the Project 48

Bibliography 49

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Acknowledgments The author would like to thank all those who so willingly gave up their time to take part in this evaluation. In particular, special mention must be made of Ms. Yllka Gerdovci-UNDP and Mr Artan Loxha-UNDP, who so ably provided professional inputs to the evaluation and provided guidance and support to the author. A special thanks for the help and information provided by the following: Alban Kryseziu, Merita Isufi and Ylber Pallaska and Armenda Hadri for the Admin arrangements of the ALMP Team; Defrim Rifaj and Hafiz Leka of the Department of Labour and Employment of MSLW; Xhevat Aliu REC Director and the Employment Counsellors of Gjilan REC; Burhan Selmanaj VTC Director and Trainers, Gjilan; Jehona Namani and Gani Ismajli VT Division MLSW; Jean-Luc Camilleri and Vedat Maqastena, Luxembourg Development Project; Levent Koro, World Bank; Mytaher Haskuka and Brikena Sylejmani, UNDP PRGC Unit ; Shpetim Kalludra Stats. Section MLSW; Bajram Demaj Director and Counsellors, REC Peja; Rexhe Gashi VTC Director Peja;; last but not least, all of the beneficiaries and PES staff who agreed to be interviewed and who gave of their time.

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Evaluation of Active Labour Market for Youth (2008-2010)

Executive Summary

The overall conclusion of this evaluation is that the ALMPs have produced

significantly positive impacts and outcomes for disadvantaged and minority groups in

Kosovo.

According to the World Bank, in 2010 Kosovo “with a 47 percent unemployment rate and a very low employment rate (29 percent), Kosovo has the weakest employment track record in Europe, and Kosovo’s 53% labour participation rate among the working age population is substantially below the average among all transition economies (65%). Against that background, the Active Labour Market for Youth (ALM) project (which commenced in 2005) has the objectives to provide direct assistance through a number of active labour market measures facilitating training and employment (in collaboration with MLSW); to provide direct assistance to vocational education students by facilitating work-based learning schemes mainly in private sector partner enterprises in a gender equitable manner; and to provide technical assistance to the MLSW and other relevant line ministries to assist in the implementation of the Employment Strategy of Kosovo. The Project has also provided capacity building support (see Appendix 3) to the MLSW in areas such as a review of the Public Employment Services (PES) completed in 2010. In 2011 the Project initiated support to develop LMI systems and supported the development of a legal framework for the implementation of ALMPs. This evaluation for the period 2008-2010, looks mainly at three ALMPs, On the Job Training (OJT), combined Institutional and Workplace Training (INST) and Internships (INT). Following a desk review, a visit to Kosovo was undertaken by the evaluator, where the main actors (including participants) involved in the project were met and interviewed. Following on from this, a survey of the 2008-2010 participants and a control group was undertaken by a contracted private company in Kosovo. The survey looked at outcomes, impacts and process. The key target groups are disadvantaged young women and men, people with disabilities and minority communities. The eligibility criteria for inclusion of individuals and enterprises within the project scope of activities are age, length of unemployment, educational attainment, gender, work experience, household characteristics, economic sector, no displacement of existing employees. The specific target group for the OJT programme are young jobseekers who are registered as unemployed for a minimum of six months, have limited educational background and no previous work experience. The main feature of the Programme is the opportunity to undertake a three-month training period in-company. A Memorandum of Understanding is signed with the employer setting out the responsibilities of each party. The employer is paid for a portion of the cost of training jobseekers. This provides an incentive to the employer to train a jobseeker for a permanent job within their company or agency.

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The specific target group for the I�ST programme in the 2008-10 period, was for young low-skilled jobseekers unemployed for at least 6 months without work experience who have not had the benefit of attending and completing vocational training. This has been recently extended To Vocational Training Centre graduates who were unable to find employment for at least 6 months after completing this training. The Internship scheme provides opportunities for new university graduates to acquire work experience in their respective fields through placement for 6 months in private sector companies or public institutions. Impact

The Project evaluation was designed from the outset to follow an experimental approach. A control group was established in order-to compare outcomes for treated and non-treated participants. In order to achieve this, every 5th potential participant was relegated to a control group. During the three-year period which is the subject of this evaluation, 1903 jobseekers took part in the Programmes and 377 were relegated to the control group. At the time of the survey conducted in late 2011 and early 2012, the overall job placement rate was 38% and is down on the last survey covering the 2007 period when the rate was calculated to be 46%. The employment effect was not completely sustained over the three-year period because at the time of the survey only 33% were in employment of which 2% were self-employed and 31% waged employees. Only 19% of the control group had a job, which indicates that the ALMPs have had a significant positive impact on employment outcomes. As expected, unemployment in the control group was higher by 16 percentage points. The relevance of the training provided to participants is confirmed by the fact that 81% of those employed said that they are using the skills learned during the programme in their present job. 49% of those employed are working in the enterprise where they underwent the training. Depending on the responses to separate questions, the level of informality is estimated to be at least 27% and could be as high as 45% for participants. It rises to an estimated 60% for the control group. While this confirms the prevalence of job informality in Kosovo, it also indicates that the ALMPs may be having some impact on reducing the numbers working in the grey economy and are actively supporting decent work. There are significant differences in outcomes depending on the Programme. While a majority of participants undertook OJT (984 participants overall), the employment

outcomes of between 25-35% (2008-10) are lower than for Combined Institution and Enterprise (INST) training which come in at a range of 37-42%. Not surprisingly the Internship programme had employment outcomes ranging from 44-59%. The lower figure of 44% is for the 2010 cohort indicating perhaps the increasingly difficult labour market conditions in that year. However international experience is that internship programmes targeted at graduates can have significant deadweight effects. A significant aspect of the results is the measure of sustained employment. The Interns show a high level of sustainable employment effect, in that 54% of the 2008 cohort, were in employment on the survey date (3 years later). 51% of the 2009 cohort were in employment on the survey date (2 years later) and 37% of the 2010 cohort were in employment one year later. For INST the rates are 43/33/20% for 2008/9/10

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respectively. The lowest sustainable employment rate was for OJT at 25/24/26% for 2008/9/10. Employment impacts based on Gender are significantly different depending on the Programme undertaken. Based on the results available from the survey, job placement rates for females are less than for males and in some cases markedly less. The outcomes for females are close to parity with males in the Internship programme but not for the other two programmes. Since the OJT and INST programmes are more targeted to disadvantaged young women and men who are more likely to be vulnerable, it is important to investigate why this gender imbalance is so and to introduce measures to redress this imbalance. Process

The ALMPs delivered under the Project seem to be reasonably well targeted, as according to the survey, in the years 2008-2010 the average age of participants was 26 and 49% had been unemployed for more than 2 years prior to participation in the ALMPs and 14% had been unemployed for more than one year. However partly because the ALMPs include an internship programme for graduates, the educational profile was generally secondary school or higher. The respondents to the survey were mainly Albanian, 3.1% were Roma and 2% Serbian. Three percent of respondents had a disability. These figures would seem to indicate that the Project stated aim of reaching 15% ethnic minorities and disabled has not been met and requires further exploration on the part of the Project management. These targets were met in terms of participation but not in terms of employment outcome. It was established during the survey that 33% said that they had not agreed an Individual Employment Plan (IEP) before entry into the programme. If this is correct then it indicates an area of the programme process that needs to be tightened up as it is a fundamental aspect of the ALMPs. 81% indicated that they had complied with the requirement to search for a job for four weeks prior to entry into a Programme. Certification is also an important part of the process and 70% said that they had received a completion certificate which would again indicate a need to address this area of the process. Over 60% of respondents indicated that they had heard about the ALMPs from the Employment Service and 20% from family or friends. Despite the stated Project focus on the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, there was little evidence of involvement in those sectors of the economy. This is something that may need some attention with regard to the targeting of Programme placements, as manufacturing is the area most likely to improve the economic outlook for the future of Kosovo. Cost Benefit Analysis

The measurement of initial placement outcomes does not properly measure the true absolute outcomes from measures. A more sustainable measure of outcomes and cost benefit analysis is discussed in the OECD Employment Outlook for 2005. The authors propose that PES should track off-benefit, employment and earnings outcomes for programme participants for about five years in order to assess which programmes have genuinely beneficial long-term impact. Following this approach, it is estimated

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that UNDP Programme costs exceeded potential State taxation revenue from the employed participants, by 62%. If in the future an unemployment benefit is introduced, then it is clear that benefit savings would close the gap by a significant amount and revenue would probably exceed the cost of the Programmes within a three year period. The Internship Programme is on balance the most cost effective by a significant margin. However while there is a potential deadweight factor in all of the Programmes, the Internship programme is more likely to be more affected by deadweight. Factors such as the opportunity to make a job choice that would not ordinarily be readily available - e.g. no current full-time job vacancies - except for the opportunity of taking up an internship, are often left out of the calculation. In other words, professional career guidance from the PES can be extended into an opportunity to try out a job via an internships/work experience programme with a view to checking to see if it is the best fit. This can help to avoid expensive mismatches in the labour market.

It is also necessary to take into account the differing educational and social profiles of the candidates for each of the Programmes. It is clear that the participants in the OJT and the INST programmes are more likely to have suffered multiple disadvantages and thus are harder to place in jobs. The social benefits of having a job are more significant for many of the participants than a mere financial balancing exercise. In comparison with the PES, the UNDP ALMPs are more successful in placing participants in jobs by a factor 6.6 but the cost per placement exceeds the PES cost per placement by a factor of 7. The net employment rate as a result of the Programmes is close to 25-28% if we assume a 5% job placement rate in the PES. Conclusions

OJT, INST and INT are extremely well designed programmes. The emphasis on careful targeting of participants and prior jobsearch linked into the development of an IEP and a Training Plan coupled with close monitoring and post-placement follow up is in line with international best practice and is a suitable best-practice model for

other countries and other PES. An outstanding element of the project design is the focus on individual counselling to develop the Individual Employment Plan and the involvement of the VTCs in developing competency based training plans for each participant. The well designed operational handbook and the comprehensive set of project administrative documentation are designed to ensure that process quality is maintained and that participants are protected, employers have clear guidelines and understand their roles and responsibilities.

Recommendations

Considering the current stage of development of the labour market institutions in Kosovo, a reinforcement of the MLSW role in the delivery of ALMPs in Kosovo is recommended and a best practice National model and guidelines for the delivery of ALMPs nationally be introduced based on the UNDP model. There is also scope for reinforcing the PES role in the monitoring of the programmes and further training of the PES staff in that regard is suggested. In the future it would be desirable if the PES could be tasked with the delivery and monitoring of the ALMPs without the field support from the UNDP staff. This would require the provision of transport and expenses support to the PES staff by the PES Management.

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Case management is not yet in place in the PES and there is a clear need to provide training in this area in order to equip staff with the skills to adopt this commonly used approach to case-loading clients. (ICT systems would also need to be put in place and to be aligned and adjusted to support such a case management approach). In the context of the IEP and the training plan, there is also a need to professionalise the work of PES Advisers to bring them more in line with the skills sets available to professional employment counsellors.

There is also a need to review the targeting of the Programmes. While is possible that some interviewees have confused the programmes; it seems that some of the participants on the Internship programme were not University graduates. In that context and some other targeting issues, the introduction of a more scientific system of client profiling in the PES is proposed. This would allow for more accurate identification of the target groups. Placement outcomes from the OJT and INST programmes need to be improved. The OJT programme produced the lowest placements and this needs to be examined further. The Internship programme is producing good job placement results for both sexes, albeit with the possibility of deadweight. It is also suggested that it may be useful to introduce a new self-employment programme for the target group, which would combine VTC training in the development of products, business plans and marketing and combined with post-training ongoing mentoring. This coupled with an enterprise allowance for the participants have the potential to produce good results in a labour market where there are few jobs. It is recommended that the experimental evaluative approach be reviewed. It is possible that rather than an ongoing 20% relegation to a control group, that a once off experimental approach with a larger control group sample may be more effective and produce definitive and reliable measures of the Programmes’ relative success. This once-off experiment could produce more accurate outcomes. This approach it worth further exploration.

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1. Introduction

Since 2005 the UNDP has assisted Kosovo and the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare(MLSW) to enhance the employment prospects of young women and men, with an emphasis on helping the most disadvantaged, ethnic minorities and in the context of gender balance. They have done this through the implementation of the Project “ Active Labour Market for Youth (ALM)”. The stated aim of the Project is to ensure that labour market Institutions are capable of providing a package of services and ALMPs comprising job-search assistance, employment counselling, labour market training, and conducting skills’ needs surveys to identify skills and competencies required in the labour market. The ALM for Youth project has three main themes:

1. Provision of direct assistance through a number of active labour market measures facilitating training and employment (in collaboration with MLSW).

2. Provision of direct assistance to vocational education students by facilitating work-based learning schemes mainly in private sector partner enterprises in a gender equitable manner (Ministry of Education, Science and Technology-MEST).

3. Provision of technical assistance to the MLSW and other relevant line ministries to assist in the implementation of the Employment Strategy of Kosovo

These activities are organised against a background of high unemployment and weak institutional response. Unemployment is particularly high among young people who dominate the labour market. The 2009 LFS (latest one available) indicates that 70% + of the 15-24 age group are unemployed. According to the World Bank, in 2010 Kosovo “with a 47 percent unemployment rate and a very low employment rate (29 percent), Kosovo has the weakest employment track record in Europe, and Kosovo’s 53% labour participation rate among the working age population is substantially below the average among all transition economies (65%)”1. Unemployment affects women more than men. In line with international experience, education level is correlated to unemployment status. In Kosovo 55% of the registered unemployed have less then secondary school education and 82% of unemployed have no previous work experience. According to the 2009 LFS, 84% of the unemployed have been without work for more than one year.

1 World Bank Country Brief Oct 2010

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2. Methodology

A pragmatic approach was adopted for the evaluation, based on both qualitative and quantitative methods. The following data sources and data collection methods were used:

− A comprehensive analysis of various sources of information including a desk review of survey data and project files, including the project documents, technical and policy papers produced by the project; work plans; progress reports and minutes of Steering Committees’ meetings.

− A survey of participants and the control group in order to establish gross and net impacts of the project. (This was conducted by a local company, with inputs from the evaluator with regard to sampling, questionnaire development and result interpretation/presentation).

− Interviews and meetings with governmental counterparts and project partners, direct beneficiaries, partner agencies, project management and staff.

The main subjects of this evaluation are three ALMPs designed to improve the job prospects of disadvantaged jobseekers (On the Job Training-OJT and Institution and Enterprise Based Training-INST) and to improve the placement prospects of recent university graduates through the Internship Programme-INT. The years covered by the evaluation are 2008, 2009 and 2010. All three Programmes are well designed with well thought out recruitment and monitoring processes. Indeed the level of detailed procedures and documentation in place is impressive. This is commendable and necessary for any well structured ALMP but particularly so in Kosovo which has yet to achieve a fully robust public administrative structure. In the case of MLSW, the numbers of staff dealing with labour market policy are in single figures. Thus there is very little scope for detailed oversight of the Programmes delivered by the PES, from the central Ministry perspective. In addition to the project Team Leader, three dedicated UNDP staff are employed by the project to oversee and administer the ALMPs. The three staff are given responsibility for particular regions of Kosovo. The project team includes one staff member responsible for the administrative and financial activities of the project. Data is collected centrally by the Ministry and published in annual reports (current one available is for 2010) but there remains a need to source more detailed data from the Regions. The centrally published data has no information on the numbers of clients actually counselled each year in each Region. We rely on the regional PES structure to get details of total numbers of jobseeker clients counselled per annum. The UNDP Project itself publishes annual progress reports which contain detailed information on throughput and outcomes for the various Project elements, including the three ALMPs which are the subject of this review.

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3. Description of Programmes

The Project design and the Operations Manual are very prescriptive and detailed. In the view of the evaluator this is good, in that procedures are clear and well defined ensuring that the interests of both jobseeker and employer are respected and quality reinforced. Some improvements are suggested in the Recommendations section of this Report.

Project Roles and Responsibilities

Role of employers:

− Interested employers complete an application form and submit it to Municipal/Regional Employment Offices for further consideration

− Partner employers interview potential workers/trainees registered as unemployed in Municipal/Regional employment Offices,

− Partner employers agrees to train / employ jobseekers and sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)with UNDP and the MLSW to this effect,

− They submit the request for reimbursement to the UNDP/Ministry as stated in the MOU.

Role of Regional/Municipal Employment Offices (RECs/MEOs):

− Undertakes targeted visits to potential employers to raise their awareness of the measures envisaged,

− Based on the eligibility criteria established by the Project, screens the jobseekers who will benefit from the Programme;

− Engages and maintains close contacts with local employers and check the eligibility of partner enterprises;

− Conducts counselling and guidance sessions for end beneficiaries, prepare Individual Employment Plans based on individual needs and monitor the achievement of the employment objectives decided upon;

− Prepares the files to present in the Approval Board meeting (the completed application forms for the enterprises and jobseekers along with the necessary supporting documents) − Facilitates the process of preparing and signing the agreements between enterprise and jobseekers, approved by the board − The MOU is signed by the Employer, UNDP Project Manager and Regional

Employment Centre Director, each region. − Visits the worksite and inspect enterprises’ records to verify the employment details of

the worker/trainee to ensure compliance with the Project; conducts counselling sessions with the individual beneficiary to identify problems and re-directs the IEP if necessary.

Role of U�DP

The UNDP Project Office (PO) acts as the secretariat of the Project Board and Regional Boards.

− Is responsible for the day-to-day implementation of the Project, − Raises awareness of the Programmes through all possible means, − Discusses and clarify the scheme objectives and guidelines to RECs and MEOs and

other partners, − Develops a unified approach for the evaluation and presentation of information in

relation to the preliminary and detailed application forms, thus ensuring consistency in the treatment of applications,

− Checks the applications presented during the Approval Board meetings to ensure Compliance with requirements specified in the Programme Operational Guidelines, accompanied with their assessment on compliance with requirements, − Contributes to the preparation of regular Project reports, − Monitors the implementation of the scheme, − Ensures effective integration of scheme information in the project database, − Reviews and verifies all payments and disbursements to the employers, − Processes payments to the employers,

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The Project key target group are disadvantaged young women and men, along with high-risk groups such as people with disabilities and minority communities. The eligibility criteria for inclusion of individuals and enterprises within the project scope of activities are as follows: Age group: young people should be 15 to 29 years of age. The programme envisaged 15 per cent of total beneficiaries would come from ethnic minorities and jobseekers with disabilities, due to the specific difficulties that they face in the Kosovo labour market. From the lessons learnt, as a response to the low participation rate of minority communities, the project has raised the maximum age limit to 35 for minorities and for people with disabilities Length of unemployment spell: the minimum requirement is for participants to have been registered with the PES for at least six months. The only exception is for minority communities and people with disabilities. The length of unemployment is not applicable for returnees. Educational attainment: priority is given to those young unemployed who have attained primary and less than primary education, secondary education drop-outs, as well as graduates of general secondary schools (non vocational/non professional schools), are eligible to benefit from the project. Newly graduated university students are eligible to participate in the Internship Scheme. Gender: the project aims at maintaining the representation of young women as a share to the total number of project beneficiaries at 50%. Work experience: the project targets primarily first time job seekers with no prior work experience.

Household characteristics: priority is given to those young jobseekers belonging to households receiving social assistance or households in which two or more adult members are registered as unemployed and are willing to forego social assistance during the training period. Priority is given to single parent families. Economic sector: priority access is given to private enterprises operating in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Enterprises are required to be formally registered and in compliance with the Tax Administration laws. This is to designed to to ensure that the enterprise is operating in the formal economy thus providing a guarantee of the minimum requirements of employment protection (health and safety at the workplace, workers’ rights, etc). Workforce composition: in order to avoid displacement partner enterprises must have a minimum number of 1 + 1 paid workers(usually the owner, plus one worker as is common in Kosovo enterprises). Furthermore, they are required to: i) make good faith efforts to retain the individual beneficiary at the end of the measure; ii) not to displace current employees or reduce their normal working hours; and iii) for training measures, put at disposal an experienced worker to supervise the individual beneficiary.

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3.1 On the Job Training (OJT) The target group for this Programme are young jobseekers who are registered as unemployed for a minimum of six months, have no or few skills and no previous work experience. The main feature of the Programme is the opportunity to undertake a three months training period in-company. Potential OJT beneficiaries are offered counselling and jobsearch assistance prior to entry into the Programme. An individual action/employment plan (IEP) is agreed between the jobseeker and the PES adviser, during which process suitable occupational profiles for jobsearch are agreed with the jobseeker. The IEP identifies the individual’s employment objective consistent with his/her strengths, resources, priorities, difficulties, capabilities and provides a frame to monitor progress. The IEP also informs the individual of his/her rights and responsibilities in the process of securing a job. The IEP must be jointly signed by the client and the counsellor. The potential participant is then encouraged to undertake an intensive and supervised four-week jobsearch in order to test the local labour market. If unsuccessful in finding a job during the jobsearch period, the potential participant is identified as requiring further support. The PES adviser identifies employers that are willing to cooperate and provide training opportunities for disadvantaged young jobseekers in accordance with the occupational profile(s) agreed with the jobseeker. In conjunction with the local VTC and the employer a Training Plan is agreed which outlines the competencies and skills to be developed by the participant during the training period. This training plan is then incorporated into the IEP. The jobseeker is thus fully cognisant of the Training Plan. This is then submitted to a Regional Approvals Board who approve the training placement or not as the case may be. Regional Boards have been established in 7 regions: Prishtinë/Pristina, Mitrovicë/Mitrovica, Ferizaj/Uroševac, Gjilan/Gnjilane, Gjakovë/Đakovica, Prizren/Prizren, Pejë/Peć and comprise 3 members who are the Director of Regional Employment Office (REO), Municipal Employment DirectorDirector of Vocational Training Centre, and UNDP Project Officer. The Regional Board is mainly responsible to ensure compliance with the Project Operation Manual and that the approval of beneficiaries and partners companies is in line with the eligibility criteria established. The training takes place at the enterprise premises, and is governed by the Training Plan prepared by VTC trainer in cooperation with the enterprise. A Memorandum of Understanding is signed with the employer setting out the responsibilities of each party. The employer is paid for a portion of the cost of training jobseekers. This provides an incentive to the employer to train a jobseeker for a permanent job within their company or agency. Reimbursements are made on quarterly bases and amount to €150 per month, of which 50 goes to the employer and 100 to the jobseeker. In many cases the participant is taken on by the employer at the end of the training period. If not, the reasons are probed and the participant is further supported by the PES adviser to find a job. A Certificate of completion is awarded to the participant and this can be a useful document to assist the jobseeker and can give a particular advantage in his or her jobsearch. 3.2 Institution and Enterprise based Training (I#ST)

This Programme was designed for young low-skilled jobseekers unemployed for at least 6 months without work experience who have not had the benefit of attending and completing vocational training. (The eligibility requirements have subsequently

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been changed to include VTC graduates who have completed training but no practical work experience). This Programme included a pre-employment period in a Vocational Training Centre (VTC) where the young jobseekers acquire core employability skills, mainly health and safety in the workplace, work readiness skills, team working, information on communication technology and other non-vocational skills for a period of 1 – 3 weeks. This has now been dropped due to scheduling and resource issues in the VTCs. (It may be worthwhile to revisit this decision as the survey results indicate good long-term outcomes for the original INST programme). During this period, the VTC trainer in cooperation with a prospective enterprise, prepares the list of competencies that the trainee should acquire during the training period at the company. After the preliminary training at VTC, the jobseeker trains and works in the private enterprises to acquire job-specific vocational skills and to potentially become a permanent employee after the satisfactory completion of the training. The total length of this scheme is 3 months. Upon completion of the training participants are assessed by VTC trainers against their Training Plans and are awarded Certificates for completion of training. The participant is paid 100 Euro and the employer is paid 50 Euro each per month. 3.3 Internship Programme (I#T) The internship scheme provides opportunities for new unemployed university graduates to acquire work experience in their respective fields through placement for 6 months in private sector companies or public institutions. It is expected that employment will become permanent through the subsidised practical implementation of their particular degree subject in-company. The intern is paid Euro 100 per month.

Graduates and Employers must meet certain criteria to be selected to participate in

Internship Scheme

Participants must be registered as unemployed for at least 6 months Be less than 30 years of age. Have no work experience. Have graduated from University. Live in poor family conditions or receive social assistance benefits. Employers must provide the graduate with training to the degree necessary for the participant to perform their duties. Must endeavour to provide both job skills and positive workplace behaviour. Agree to make a good faith effort to retain the intern at the end of the Internship Contract.

�o displacement of current employees or reduction of their non-overtime hours by using

Interns. Must provide Intern with a completion certificate.

Process

PES Adviser identifies a jobseeker for Internship and identifies and contacts potential employers to promote an internship opportunity. PES Adviser screens and refers jobseeker to employer. Employer accepts the candidate and an internship plan is developed. Employer, PES Adviser and intern sign the Internship Memorandum of Understanding. Copies go to employer, PES and Project team. After completion of Internship, employer is expected to hire as employee successful interns. If the intern is not hired, the PES Adviser discusses reasons for not hiring with the employer. PES Adviser makes contact with intern and attempts to find a permanent employment for him/her.

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4. Interviews and meetings with governmental counterparts and project

partners, direct beneficiaries, partner agencies, project management and staff

Having reviewed the existing project documents and reports, including a previous evaluation of the 2007 project carried out in 2008, a field visit was undertaken in November 2011. Interviewees included Project staff and management, Ministry officials, PES staff, selected participants in the ALMPs both jobseekers and employers, training centres, PES offices in Gjilan and Peja, other related donor projects and UNDP staff. 4.1Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare A small unit in the Ministry administers active labour market policy. Five staff are responsible for Employment Policy, Public Works schemes, Information and Migration issues. The Project has provided capacity building support2 to the Ministry in areas such as a Mission Statement and a review of the Public Employment Services(PES) completed in 2010. In 2011 the Project provided support to develop LMI systems and to support the development of a legal framework for the implementation of ALMPs. There is concern in the Ministry about the unbalanced client staff ratio in the PES which is currently 1:1800, based on a client register of 350,000. This gives little scope for monitoring and implementation of ALMPs. Their view is that the focus of ALMPs should be on sustainable employment, labour market needs and more self-employment options for the unemployed. An increase of the upper eligibility age limit to 45 would be useful in the view of the ministry, considering the general poor state of the labour market which affects the prime age group workers. They expressed full support for the Project ALMPs and for the support provided by the Norwegian Government, the UNDP and the UNDP project staff 4.2Gjilan District This district has been very actively engaged in the implementation of the ALMPs. This is reflected in the statistical breakdown for 2010,when the Gjilan district placed 226 jobseekers on the UNDP funded ALMPs. This represents 21% of participants nationally in 2010.

2 See Appendix 3

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The PES operates from a regional office and has also 3 municipal and 2 local offices. The staff complement of 27 includes 15 PES advisers who service a register of 34,000 unemployed. The staff estimate that 47% of registrants are not actively seeking work. Typically, jobseekers are interviewed for 15 minutes on their first visit and are required to attend every three months. On average, 200 clients are interviewed each month in the Regional Office of which 120 are new registrants. The staff are very pleased to have the Project ALMPs available to jobseekers, in a situation where jobs are scarce. The Programmes require a significant investment of PES time and typically 10-20% of Adviser’s time is reported (varies depending on the particular Office) as being dedicated to UNDP Programmes. They also implement two smaller donor funded ALMPs similar to the Project OJT programme, which have slightly different eligibility requirements. These are the EU funded Programme “Kosvet” and the Luxembourg funded “LuxDev”. The latter pays Euro 5 to the PES Advisers for each placement achieved. In the opinion of the evaluator who has managed PES at national and EU levels, this type of staff incentive payment is not good PES practice, distorts delivery of ALMPs and should not occur. The staff had some suggestions and made some observations on the UNDP supported Programmes. Suggestions included a request to look again at the educational qualification requirement for OJT to make it more flexible. They observed that participants in the Internship Programme prefer to undertake the internship working for a Municipality, as there is a greater chance of obtaining employment. They feel that it is more difficult to interest jobseekers in Internships in the private sector. A number of participants were interviewed in their place of work. Two young men working in a double glazing manufacturing company have been employed there for two years post-OJT and were aware of their agreed training programme during the OJT period and had obtained certificate of completion upon completion of the OJT Programme. They and their employer are very positive about the benefits of the OJT both to the individuals and to the company. Another young lady had just recently commenced work in a small paper products manufacturing company and had been previously unemployed for a lengthy period. Working conditions seemed adequate and she expressed herself to be happy with her placement. The local Vocational Training Centre-VTC (there are 8 permanent and 6 mobile Nationally) are actively engaged in the Programme in that a list of prospective OJT participants is sent to the VTC. A designated trainer is assigned to develop a three-month training plan for each prospective participant in collaboration with the employer. The trainer has the benefit of a compendium of occupational skills required for specific occupations, similar in some ways to the layout and format of the International Standardised Classification of Occupations (ISCO). During a visit to the VTC, the designated Instructor indicated that in total, she would spend 16 hrs of her time for each OJT participant. This includes the development of the training plan and visits to the work site/employer and the final certification process upon completion of the OJT by the participant. She offered the view that the training period of three months was too short for some occupations such as hairdresser and in order to address this that the OJT should be followed by an employment subsidy to allow the employer to continue the training. This type of double funding could however have high displacement effects. It was also suggested by both the VTC and the Ministry that a

16

laptop should be supplied to the trainers involved in the OJT in order to allow mobile flexible working practices, as OJT tasks require a good deal of travelling. A mileage allowance would also be a practical help to their work as they don’t have easy access to the official car and it would be more efficient to use their own transport. 4.3Peja District In 2010 this district had a 14% share of the National ALMP participants. The PES operates out of one Regional office and three local offices with 22 staff in total. The unemployment register was 34,641, at the time of visit. They have an inflow of 150 jobseekers per month on average. They took in about 900 job vacancies in 2011 and filled approximately 69%. The staff suggested that the eligibility rules for the OJT Programme be adjusted so that recent vocational school graduates can be eligible for OJT. The Director is of the view that Internships are only suitable for public bodies, as the private sector do not have the resources to provide well-supported and supervised internships. The amount of paperwork required for the Programmes was criticised. However in the evaluator’s view this is one of the strengths of the Programmes, in that quality can be maintained with well-documented and proper procedures and paper trails in place, particularly in a developing economy such as Kosovo. The requirement to complete 4 weeks jobsearch before commencement on OJT is regarded by some of the staff to be pointless as there are relatively few jobs on offer to the target group and certainly very few available to disadvantaged jobseekers. Staff estimate that 40-45% of OJT participants get a job at the end of their placement. A visit was arranged to an OJT participant working in a computer repair shop and he was aware of his training plan. The employer was also present and understood his obligations. Both are happy with the Programme. A science-graduate participant on the Internship Programme working in a blood-sampling laboratory understands that has good prospects to be taken on full-time. During a visit to an OJT participant training in a hairdresser salon, the employer suggested and extension to the OJT training period as it takes considerably longer to fully learn hairdressing. It is clear from the field visits that the PES and VTC staff are fully committed to the project and have embraced the model. It is clear that the well-documented procedures and stages of recruitment, particularly for the OJT and INST Programmes are necessary and required, in order to maintain quality of training, job placement and avoidance of displacement. There are issues with similar ALMPs funded by other donors requiring lower levels of evidence of eligibility and compliance with taxation regulations, for example. This is an issue that is discussed elsewhere in this report but coordination on the part of MLSWshould resolve such issues. Any dilution of the UNDP Programme regulations should be avoided. Rather a reinforcement of the PES staff roles in that regard would be welcome.

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5. Impacts and Outcomes

The Project was designed from the outset to follow an experimental evaluation approach. A control group was established in order to compare outcomes for treated and non-treated participants. In order to achieve this, every 5th potential participant was relegated to a control group. During the three-year period, which is the subject of this evaluation, 1903 jobseekers took part in the Programmes and 377 were relegated to the control group. It is important to note that the educational background of participants in the Internship programme was markedly different from the other two programmes. Unemployed University graduates without work experience were the main target group of the internships, whereas low-skilled disadvantaged unemployed were the target group for the On the Job Training and Institution and Enterprise based combined training programmes. Table 1

#umbers on Programmes 2008 2009 2010 Totals %

Institution and Enterprise based combined training (INST)

54 79 153 286 15

Internship (INT) 148 211 274 633 33

On the Job Training(OJT) 266 86 632 984 52

Totals 468 376 1059 1903

Control Group-numbers 92 75 210 377

A survey of participants and the control group was commissioned as part of this evaluation process. While it would have been preferable to survey all participants and all of the control group, because of funding issues a 60% representative sample was initially proposed based on various representative participant characteristics. The evaluator worked with the survey company to design a questionnaire and a representative framework of client characteristics within which a randomised sampling cohort could be established. However due to difficulties in contacting some of the participants, the surveyors were not able to follow the sampling model in its entirety. The surveyors used the records of the total population of 1903 and were able to make contact and survey 1082participants with the resultant distribution as set out below in Table 2. They had less success with the control group and were only able to contact 40% (150) of the total control group population. Table 2

#umbers Sampled 2008 2009 2010 Tota

ls

% of

Programme

total

population

Institution and Enterprise based combined training (INST)

30 33 91 154 54

Internship (INT) 85 83 214 382 60

On the Job Training(OJT) 97 51 398 546 55

Totals 212 167 702 1082 57

% sampled by year, of total participant population 45 45 66

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A number of issues become apparent when we examine the above tables. OJT has the most participants of all three Programmes in the years 2008-2010 comprising 52% of the total population. INT represents 33% and INST is 15%. While 55% of OJT and 54% of INST respectively have been surveyed, 60% of Interns have been surveyed. Interpretation of the survey results needs to be tempered by this imbalance in favour of the Internships. It is also clear that finding and surveying the 2008 and 2009 cohorts of participants (45% surveyed in both years) has proven to be more difficult than for 2010 (66% surveyed). Unfortunately, the control group seems to have been the most difficult to contact and while this is understandable, it does raise a doubt about the usefulness of the data coming from a control group that was already at 20% as a result of programme design but is now 8% of total participant numbers. 5.1Overall Impact of the ALMPs We are fortunate to have 3 years of data which allows us to track longer-term outcomes for participants. Thus we can look at 2008 participant outcomes three years on, 2009 two years on and 2010 after one year. This gives us a fairly unique longitudinal framework within which to test the sustainability over time of programme effects, placement outcomes and better scope for estimating the benefit of the programmes measured against cost. Before examining the individual ALMPs by year and Programme, it is useful to look at the overall gross impact of the totality of the ALMPs at the time of the survey conducted in late 2011 and early 2012. The overall job placement rate is 38% and is lower than on the last survey covering the 2007 period when the rate was calculated to be 46%. (However a caveat must be that an extra employment subsidy programme was included in the 2007 activities and the proportional mix of programmes was different).

Table 3

Status of the Total ALMP Participants(2008-2010) on survey date (Jan-March

2012) in rounded % terms (sample n=1082)

Control Group

(Sample n=150)

Held a job at any time since leaving the programme 38 na Employed on survey date 33 19 Unemployed on survey date 49 65 Inactive on survey date 19 16 Waged-employee, 31 17 Self-employed 2 2 Of those employed, in temporary/seasonal job 27 70 Of those employed, in full time work on the survey date 91 90 Of those employed, in informal working arrangements on the survey date 27-45 45-60 Employed by same enterprise which conducted the training 49 na Using skills learnt during the training in current job 81 na Of those self-employed employing additional workers 68 nd In informal self-employment 14 nd Self-employment activity is related to the subsidised training 47 na Out of all respondents, satisfied and very satisfied with Programme 87 na

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The employment effect was not completely sustained over the three-year period because at the time of the survey only 33% were in employment of which 2% were self-employed and 31% waged employees. Only 19% of the control group had a job, which indicates that the ALMPs have had a significant positive impact on employment outcomes. Self-employment accounted for 2% of both participants and control group and indicates that the ALMPs had little or no impact on progression to self-employment. They did have an impact of the type of self-employment as 47% indicated that the self-employment is related to the training received. As expected unemployment in the control group was higher by 16 percentage points. Of those employed, 66% found a job within 6 months after completing the programme and 26% within 12 months. The destination of those who had a job at the time of the survey (33%) is as follows: 20% work in the Private sector, 7% in a Public Enterprise and 4% in a Government Agency. 2% became self-employed.

The occupational destinations of the employed were mainly in “Service” and “Professional” capacities as outlined in Table 5 below.

Table 5 Occupation % Occupation %

Legislators and senior officials 0.3%

Personal and protective service workers 24.6%

Corporate managers 1.3% Models, salespersons and demonstrators 10.8%

Physical, mathematical and engineering science professionals 1.6%

Market - oriented skilled agricultural and fishery workers

1% Life science and health professional 3%

Metal, machinery and related trades worker 3%

Teaching professionals 7.2% Other craft and related trade workers 2% Other professionals 18.4% Stationary plant and related operators 0.7% Physical and engineering associate professionals 0.3%

Machine operators and assemblers 3%

Life science and health associate professionals 1.6%

Drivers and mobile plant operators 0.7%

Other associate professionals 15.7% Sales and services elementary occupations 1% Office clerks 0.3% Agricultural, fishery and related labourers 0.3% Costumer service clerks

1%

Labourers mining, construction, manufacturing, transport

1.6%

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The dominant economic sectoral destination of the employed is the Wholesale and Retail trade with Public Administration and Defence in second place.

Table 6

Sectoral Distribution of Employed

Manufacturing 1%

Electricity, gas and water supply 2.1%

Construction 0.3%

Wholesale and retail trade 42.9%

Hotels and Restaurants 7.3%

Transport, storage and communication 2.8%

Financial Intermediation 4.2% Real estate, renting and business activities

1.7% Public administration and defense

16.7% Education 8.7% Health and social work

2.4% Other community, social and personal service activities 9.8%

Tables 5 and 6 above would indicate that the greatest sectoral economic impact was on the wholesale, retail and restaurant sector where a significant number of participants worked in the capacity of service worker. Public administration also features highly and this reflects the preference of Interns for this sector. Despite the stated Project focus on the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, there was little evidence of involvement in those sectors of the economy. This is something that may need some attention with regard to the targeting of Programme placements, as manufacturing is the area most likely to improve the economic outlook for the future of Kosovo.

The duration of the present employment at survey date is impressive in that at the date of the survey, of those employed, over 50% have been in their current job for more than one year and 25% for more than two years.

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While 27% of participants were in temporary or seasonal jobs a massive 70% of the control group were in such jobs, indicating that the ALMPs had a significant impact on the quality and permanence of jobs obtained by participants. Informality was measured by asking if the person had a contract and also if they paid social security and were entitled to paid holidays. Depending on the responses to the separate questions the level of informality is estimated to be at least 27% and could be as high as 45% for participants. It rises to an estimated 60% for the control group. While this confirms the prevalence of job informality in Kosovo, it also indicates that the ALMPs may be having some impact on reducing the numbers working in the grey economy and are actively supporting decent work. The relevance of the training provided to participants is confirmed by the fact that 81% of those employed said that they are using the skills learned during the programme in their present job. 49% of those employed are working in the enterprise where they underwent the training. This can indicate good matching by the PES staff of the currently employed participants to training opportunities, good occupational profiling of the employed jobseekers and good identification of innate and required competencies. Satisfaction with the training received among all participants, employed and unemployed, is high with 87% of respondents indicating that they are satisfied or very satisfied (scoring 4/5 on a scale from 1-5). 5.2Impact of ALMPs broken down by Programme and year

Table 7 below shows outcomes and impacts for participants broken down by Programme and year. There are significant differences in outcomes depending on

the Programme. While a majority of participants undertook OJT (984 participants overall), the employment outcomes of between 25-35% (2008-10) are lower than for Combined Institution and Enterprise (INST) training which come in at a range of 37-42%. Not surprisingly the Internship programme had employment outcomes ranging from 44-59%. The lower figure of 44% is for the 2010 cohort indicating perhaps the increasingly difficult labour market conditions in that year. However international experience is that internship programmes targeted at graduates can have significant deadweight effects, in that the graduates might have obtained work without the intervention, despite the fact that the participants had been at least 6 months unemployed before entering the programme. A significant aspect of the results is the measure of sustained employment. The Interns show a high level of sustainable employment effect in that 54% of the 2008 cohort, were in employment on the survey date (3 years later). 51% of the 2009 cohort were in employment on the survey date (2 years later) and 37% of the 2010 cohort were in employment one year later. For INST the rates are 43/33/20% for 2008/9/10 respectively. The lowest sustainable employment rate was for OJT at 25/24/26% for 2008/9/10. However despite the latter being lower, the results are still favourable in that one quarter of OJT participants were in employment at the survey date.

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Table 7

Employment impacts based on Gender are significantly different depending on the Programme undertaken. Based on the results available from the survey, job placement rates for females are less than for males and in some cases markedly less, as set out in the table below. Table 8

Percentage of beneficiaries holding a job at any time since leaving the programme-Gender 2008 2009 2010 Total

(Ave) Male Female Male Female Male Female M F OJT 23 2 22 14 19 12 22 10

INST 27 10 33 9 20 13 27 11

INT 27 32 31 27 21 23 26 28 The outcomes for females are close to parity with males for Interns but not for the other two programmes. Since the OJT and INST programmes are more targeted to disadvantaged youth who are more likely to be vulnerable, it is important to investigate why this gender imbalance is so and to introduce measures to redress this imbalance. (It is important to note that overall in the survey, the figure for female placement is c.40% when not broken down by programme.)

6. Process

As mentioned in the introduction above, in Kosovo 55% of the registered unemployed have less than secondary school education and 82% of unemployed have no previous

Status of the ALMP Participants on survey date (Jan-March 2012) in % terms (rounded)

N=Number Sampled OJT(N=546) I#ST (N=154) I#T(N=382) 2008

n97 2009 n 51

2010 n 398

2008 n 30

2009 n 33

2010 n 91

2008

n 85 2009

n 83 2010 n214

Held a job at any time since leaving the programme

25 35 31 37 42 33 59 58 44

Employed on survey date 25 24 26 43 33 20 54 51 37 Unemployed on survey date 54 53 53 40 52 61 34 30 47 Inactive on survey date 20 24 22 17 15 18 9 21 15 Waged-employee, 22 22 20 40 33 19 54 50 33 Self-employed 3 2 3 3 0 1 0 1 3 Of those employed, in a temporary/seasonal job

48 18 34 33 9 33 15 13 34

Of those employed, in full time work on the survey date

86 82 94 92 82 86 91 93 94

Of those employed, in informal working arrangements on the survey date

38-43 46-64 54-68 33-67

46-64

30-53

0-24

5-27

13-33

Employed by same enterprise which conducted the training

50 36 58 50 55 58 40 41 46

Using skills learnt during the training in current job

90 91 70 58 90 58 87 85 77

Of those self-employed, employing additional workers

67 100 82 100 0 100 0 50 40

In informal self-employment 0 100 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 Self-employment activity is related to the subsidised training

100 0 50 100 0 0 0 100 40

Out of all respondents, satisfied/very satisfied with the Programme

80 90 88 63 82 76 94 94 89

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work experience. According to the 2009 LFS, 84% of the unemployed have been without work for more than one year. In the light of the above, the ALMPs delivered under the Project therefore seem to be reasonably well targeted, as according to the survey, in the years 2008-2010 the average age of participants was 26 and 49% had been unemployed for more than 2 years prior to participation in the ALMPs and 14% had been unemployed for more than one year. However partly because the ALMPs include an internship programme for graduates, the educational profile was generally secondary school or higher. It is also worthwhile noting that according to the survey, the educational background of Interns included 20% High School participants in 2008, 14.5% in 2009 and 9% in 2010. This would indicate some drift in the implementation of the eligibility requirement for the Internship Programme. The respondents to the survey were mainly Albanian, 3.1% were RAE and 2% Serbian. 3% of respondents had a disability. Table 9

These figures would seem to indicate that the Project stated aim of reaching 15% ethnic minorities and disabled has not been met and requires further exploration on the part of the Project management. Priority entry to the Programmes was to be given to those from households receiving social assistance and those with two or more unemployed. Table 10 below indicates that this was the case, although one would like to have seen a higher percentage of those coming from a household in receipt of social assistance.

Table 10

The gender balance was more or less equal in the survey and the perception of the majority (96%) of participants indicated that there was gender equality among the

Ethnicity Percentage

Albanian 92.9% Serbian 2.0% Turkish 0.7% Bosnian 0.5% Roma, Ashkaly and Egyptian (RAE)

3.1% Goran 0.7%

The household: %

Receives assistance (Social assistance, Pension etc) 8.9% Has two or more adults registered unemployed 42.9% Receive remittances from family members abroad 10.5% None of the above 37.7%

24

participants while on the programmes. Just 1.5% indicated that males were treated more favourably. The modus operandi of the Programmes are described earlier in this report and it was established during the survey that 33% had not agreed an Individual Employment Plan (IEP) before entry into the programme. If this is correct then it indicates an area of the programme process that needs to be tightened up, as it is a fundamental aspect of the ALMPs. 81% indicated that they had complied with the requirement to search for a job for four weeks prior to entry into a Programme. Certification is an important part of the process and 70% said that they had received a completion certificate, which would again indicate a need to address this area of the process. Over 60% of respondents indicated that they had heard about the ALMPs from the Employment Service and 20% from family or friends. This would indicate that the Employment Service have been proactive in promoting the programme in line with their jobseeker activation role. As referred to earlier, the promotion of the programmes by the Employment Service to employers in the manufacturing sector would seem to require reinforcement.

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7. Cost Benefit Analysis

The measurement of placement outcomes does not properly measure the true absolute outcomes from measures. However this is the common approach in most PES. Many also do periodic follow up surveys of a sample of jobseekers’ placement outcomes as reported by the sample. This current evaluation is more comprehensive and spans a period of three years but it is worthwhile looking further than placement outcomes to gauge benefits. A more sustainable measure of outcomes and cost benefit analysis is discussed in the OECD Employment Outlook for 2005. The authors propose that PES should track off-benefit, employment and earnings outcomes for programme participants for about five years in order to assess which programmes have genuinely beneficial long-term impact. They suggest that a robust measure of long-term outcomes can be assessed in terms of a “B + tW” formula; where B is the benefit payments saved, t is the tax rate and W is total participant earnings (the product of employment rate and wage rate). They go on to say that “when impacts are measured over long periods, the earnings component in this formula can be relatively large. Effective performance management with outcomes valued according to the (B + tW) formula would not only reduce total unemployment but also increase the delivery of substantive employment services which improve long-term employment and earnings outcomes. It would improve government’s net financial balance, because the (B + tW) criterion means that programmes are selected when the benefit savings and increased tax receipts that they generate exceed their cost”.3 A good example of the value of this measurement approach is its application to the measurement of outcomes from “Job Clubs” in Ireland and similar interventions in the “Employment Zones” sub-contracted by Jobcentre Plus in the UK. The current cost of a job club immediate placement in Ireland is 800 Euro when all job club capital and staff costs are taken into account. The employment taxation rate for that one person over the first six months of employment generally exceeds the cost of the job club intervention. The saving on unemployment benefit is additional to the tax take. If one follows the placed jobseeker over a long period the saving to the government is in many cases is even more substantial using the B+ tW formula. It is therefore clear to the PES in Ireland that the simple and light Job Clubs interventions can be one of the most cost effective and efficient pro-active measures. In the case of Kosovo, the payment of unemployment benefit is not a feature of the labour market. Rather a social assistance payment is made to families that fulfil certain criteria. This is the only payment available based on unemployment status and unemployment is just one of the criteria for payment of assistance. The payment is not made to an unemployed individual but to the family. The amounts are small, ranging from Euro 35-75 per month. In the case of the ALMPs which are the subject of this evaluation, the number of participants from households in receipt of assistance is small at 9%. However we do have an average employment rate of 33% at the time of the survey and this employment is of varied duration ranging from 2008-2010.

3OECD employment outlook – isbn 92-64-01045-9 – OECD 2005

26

Of those respondents who answered the relevant survey question, the average gross salary is Euro 273. The average pension and tax deductions for a salary of Eur 273 is Eur 35.94. Since 33% were in employment at the time of the survey, out of a total cohort of participants of 1903 in the programmes, then 627 can be said to be employed on the survey date. We also have the average length of employment of each participant. From these we can estimate the State revenue generated as follows: Table 11

Time period Percentage of Employed cohort for each time period

Nos. Employed

Overall estimated amount of Tax/Pension Take (Eur) at

Survey date.

3 Yrs 25 157 203132 2 Yrs 27 169 145788 1 Yr 27 169 72886 6 Months 21 132 28465 Total 627 450,271

The Total costs of the Programmes were as follows (from the administrative records): Table 12

2008 Programmes No of beneficiaries

Direct cost per unit Eur

Indirect cost per unit Eur

Total cost per unit Eur Total cost

OJT 266 450 170.54 620.54 165,063.64

INST 54 450 170.54 620.54 33,509.16

Internship 148 400 170.54 570.54 84,439.92

283,012.72

2009 Programmes No of beneficiaries

Direct cost per unit Eur

Indirect cost per unit Eur

Total cost per unit Eur Total cost

OJT 86 450 288 738 63,468.00

INST 79 450 288 738 58,302.00

Internship 114 400 288 688 78,432.00

Internship - PwD 97 200 288 488 47,336.00

247,538.00

2010 Programmes No of beneficiaries

Direct cost per unit Eur

Indirect cost per unit Eur

Total cost per unit Eur Eur

OJT 632 450 126.16 576.16 364,133.12

INST 153 450 126.16 576.16 88,152.48

Internship 274 600 126.16 726.16 198,967.84

651,253.44

Total 1,181,801

While the above tables represent estimates, they indicate that with the average job placement rate of 33%, the potential tax and pension take is significantly less than the cost of providing the programmes. This will continue to improve and be rebalanced depending on the job retention rate of the participants into the future.

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We can also look at the cost benefit ratio per Programme in the same way as follows: Table 13

Programme Costs 2008-2010

Average Employment Rate (2008-10) %

No’s Employed (Est)

Tax Pension take up to 4/2012 (Est)

Cost benefit net

OJT 592,664 25 246(984x24%) 177,367 -415,297(-70%) INST 179,963 29 83(286x29%) 59599 -120,364(-67%) INT 409,174 47 298(633x47%) 231526 -177,648(-44%) Totals 1,181,801 33 627 450,492 -731,309(-62%)

It is also necessary to take into account the costs incurred by the Employment Service in the delivery of these Programmes. The PES estimate that 10% of advisers time is taken up in the implementation of the Programmes. The total salary costs for the PES in 2008-10 was 1,709.231. If we assume a net amount for salaries after tax of 1,367,385 then the salary amount associated with the ALMPs is EUR 136,738 for the three years. This further increases the total costs of the Programmes to 1,318,539 and the overall the cost benefit to -66%. At the time of the survey it is therefore estimated that UNDP Programme and PES costs exceeded potential State revenue by 66%. There is also scope for narrowing this gap if sales tax revenue based on increased spending power is taken into account. If in the future an unemployment benefit rate of say Euro 60 is introduced then it is clear that benefit savings would close the gap by a significant amount and revenue would probably exceed the cost of the Programmes within the three year period, based on the above model. The Internship Programme is on balance the most cost effective by a significant margin. However as stated above, while there is a potential deadweight factor in all of the Programmes, the Internship programme is more likely to be more affected by deadweight. This would reduce the cost-effectiveness of the Internship programme. However factors such as the opportunity to make a job choice that would not ordinarily be readily available - e.g. no current full-time job vacancies - except for the opportunity of taking up an internship, are often left out of the calculation. In other words, professional career guidance from the PES can be extended into an opportunity to try out a job via an internships/work experience programme with a view to checking to see if it is the best fit. This can help to avoid expensive mis-matches that may end up in unemployment and thus an added cost to the State. This is an important added value, which must be taken into account, rather than just focussing on the ‘deadweight’ argument. It is also necessary to take into account the differing educational and social profiles of the candidates for each of the Programmes. It is clear that the participants in the OJT and the INST programmes are more likely to have suffered multiple disadvantages and thus are harder to place in jobs. The social benefits of having a job are more significant for many of the participants than a mere financial balancing exercise. This is perhaps more important than any other factor considering the present stage of economic, social and political development of Kosovo. The Employment services do not have a central record of clients counselled so in order to get an comparable estimation of inputs and employment outcomes for PES

28

mediated clients it seems appropriate to look at the Gjilan Region where a major part of UNDP Programme activity occurs. Table 14 Gjilan Region

Year Nos. Counselled by PES

Nos. Placed in Jobs

% of Counselled in Jobs

UNDP Overall Kosovo counselled, in jobs on survey date

2008 13058 631 5% 37% 2009 14190 736 5% 36% 2010 13092 540 4% 26%

Table 15 PES/UNDP Cost Per Placement

Cost per PES job placement Overall Kosovo 2008-2010

Cost per UNDP ALMPs job placement 2008-10

2008Eur 311 2009Eur 172 2010Eur 328

5,281,523/19864= Ave Eur 266

1,181,803 /627

AveEur 1,884

Table14 above indicates that the UNDP ALMPs are more successful in placing participants in jobs by a factor 6.6 but the cost per placement exceeds the PES cost per placement by a factor of 7.However we also must take into account the fact that in the control group, the overall employment rate was 19% which would make the net employment rate 14% (33-19). This also gives us an estimate of potential deadweight. As mentioned earlier, the control group is very small and because of problems in contacting a representative sample, a net employment comparison based on the control group survey results may not be accurate. It may be more useful to compare with the PES 5% placement rate and estimate that the net employment rate as a result of the Programmes is closer to 25-28%. However we can’t be more definitive because of the issues with the control group.

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8. Project Design and Relevance

A wide range of measures and solutions are in use by PES worldwide to tackle the complex issues of youth unemployment. PES have tended to differentiate between early school leavers, those young people without vocational training, immigrants/minorities and the rest of the cohort. The first three groups have tended to experience the most difficulties entering the labour market. In Kosovo an additional group of non-vocational High School leavers has been included in measures. The OECD Employment Outlook 2006 pointed out that “Youth in all countries face an above-average risk of unemployment, as they attempt to find a foothold in the labour market. For many youth, this is only a transitional difficulty. However, youth who are persistently unemployed (or who experience multiple spells of joblessness) may develop disadvantages that seriously compromise their long-term career prospects. It is thus a matter of major policy concern to develop young people’s employability and ensure their successful entry into the labour market and subsequent access to career ladders.” The authors go on to emphasise that the cost-effectiveness of ALMPs for youth “needs to be monitored closely, especially in terms of their success at helping the most disadvantaged youth find jobs. These programmes should focus on job-search assistance activities which are often found to be the most cost-effective measures for youth”, providing positive returns on both earnings and employment. Where training is envisaged, it should be designed with employers’ hiring requirements in mind. Good targeting and tight work availability requirements are also important design features to help contain overall costs, while guaranteeing focus on the neediest.”4The OJT,INST and INT programmes in Kosovo follow this approach and are a model of exceptional good practice which stand up against any international comparison. The focus on job search and counselling of the unemployed needs to be reinforced in Kosovo and PES staff development is crucial in order to implement the most successful ALMP which is Jobseeker action planning, guidance and counselling. The UNDP managed ALMPs, particularly the Individual Employment Plan and the Training Plan, provide a good template and foundation is this regard but work needs to be done to embed new counselling skills in the PES.

8.1 Best Practice in tackling Youth Unemployment

A look at best practice measures in tackling youth unemployment across PES clearly points to the commonality of activation/jobsearch, career guidance and careers

information, wage subsidies (e.g. UK #ew Deal), internships/work experience

programmes (sometimes coupled with wage subsidies), and training-the latter particularly for drop-outs from school (early school leavers-ESL) with a view towards keeping the ESLs in the education system. This is often in the form of special training centres/programmes that contain a large portion of vocational, literacy and personal development content. A survey of good practice in the EU PES (2007 unpublished) includes the following non-exhaustive examples of what the PES themselves regard as best practice in tackling youth unemployment: 4 OECD Employment Outlook 2006 Chapter 4

30

Professional internships were cited by Switzerland (funded 75% by social insurance) and by Belgium where companies employing over 50 staff must provide places for “start jobs” for a certain period. In Bulgaria graduates can gain work experience in public administration for 9 months with a view towards improving their employability. In Ireland a new Internship model called “Jobbridge5” provides 9 months focused work experience for unemployed jobseekers and provides a top-up payment in addition to the amount of unemployment benefit received by participants. In France the focus is the preventative approach by improving the quality of education system for young people by closely mentoring students of all ages to promote each individual’s success. The ‘personalised academic success

programme’ kicks in when a young person might not acquire the basic skills taught in the grade he/ she is attending (for instance a ‘professional discovery’ programme that helps potential dropouts to discover the opportunities available in the trades). In order to improve the school-to-work transition and meeting skills shortages France is developing and heightening the awareness of apprenticeship programmes with the help of employers, to highlight the attraction of apprenticeships for young people. Entrepreneurship is also promoted through a “youth initiative” competition for best business projects of young people. There is also a greater focus on proficiency in foreign languages and information and communication technologies. France also has a particular challenge in the number of disaffected young people who feel themselves to be excluded from society as was evidenced by the riots in the “Bain lieu” some years ago. There is now a concentration on supporting young people’s integration into the workplace (organising appointments with the PES for each of the youth unemployed for more than a year; social integration contracts signed with local task forces or career counselling offices are designed to meet the needs of 16-26 year-olds who are having problems, in order to develop individual actions required to achieve their integration into sustainable employment). An employer subsidy is also designed to encourage the recruitment of young people to the private sector. The key approach of the Bundesagentur and other State agencies in Germany is prevention. A unique feature of the German approach is the “BIZ” centres where the PES provides comprehensive career guidance and counselling to students in a dedicated centre before they enter the labour market (under an agreement with the Conference of Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs). A central approach is the provision of information on jobs, job options and labour market prospects, along with guidance and support for young people taking action on their own initiative. The German PES has considerably increased the resources available for enhanced career guidance to target the excluded and marginalised. The Federal Government has set the objective of having no young person unemployed for over three months. At the moment this objective is not being met – on average, young people are unemployed for four and a half months before finding a (new) job. Under current legislation on the basic provision for jobseekers, young people have a binding right– laid down by law – to have work, training or an employment opportunity provided as follows :-

5 www.jobbridge.ie

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o Within one week of their application, young people must have been given their first counselling session and have their profiles drawn up.

o Within three weeks of their application, an integration agreement must have been completed.

o Within four weeks of completion of the integration agreement, the young person must be given a specific offer of a job, training, training preparation, further training or an employment opportunity.

Young Single Parents are also being targeted in the UK and Ireland. In both of these countries there is a significant cohort of young single parents who are on benefits. These benefits are having a lock-in effect in that it is often more financially beneficial to stay on benefits rather than move into work. New approaches are being piloted and they have to be attractive to clients, as participation on the new programmes is voluntary. The programmes are designed so that the lone-parent is financially better off in a job by for instance, allowing the retention of benefits for a transition period and providing extra non-financial supports. The programmes are voluntary as Governments don’t want to be seen to be coercing young mothers into work to the detriment of the lone parents, their children and society in general. For an example of the latter, early school leaving of children of lone-parents could be exacerbated by an imposition of work activation conditionality on the receipt lone-parent State benefits. 8.2 What works-successful aspects identified

Common themes cited by EU PES are proper targeting of sub-groups, early

activation/jobsearch, conditionality and targeted training. Another commonality of all the approaches is early engagement with young people to prevent the drift into unemployment and the importance of prevention of drop-out from education and training. OJT,INST and INT are extremely well designed programmes. The emphasis on careful targeting of participants and prior jobsearch linked into the development of an IEP and a Training Plan coupled with close monitoring and post-placement follow up is in line with international best practice and is a suitable best-practice model for

other countries and other PES. The operational manual is clear and correctly prescriptive and provides a good backbone to the Programmes. The connection with the VTCs and the Instructors involvement in the design of the training plan is another

example of good practice and should be encouraged/reinforced. This may require more resources for the VTCs. There is also scope to avoid overlap in the monitoring and management of the scheme between the UNDP, PES and VTCs. There is scope for reinforcing the PES role in monitoring through further training and thus the release of UNDP staff for other work. The involvement of the Regional level, local PES office and VTCs in the selection board is commendable. The models should not be diluted in any way despite pressures to do so by comparison with other ALMP interventions in Kosovo. 8.3 Other parallel Projects

There are two other donor funded projects delivering a similar programme to OJT. In the case of “LuxDev” funded by the Luxembourg Government, their requirements differed to the ones current in the UNDP programmes (see Table 16 below). The differences are significant and go to the heart of the quality issues. LuxDev does not require tax deduction compliance. Evidence of taxation compliance is important to

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ensure informality is not present. Another key quality aspect of the UNDP Programmes is the requirement to develop an Individual Employment Plan (IEP) for each participant and this is not required by the LuxDev programme. The final certification report on the skills acquired by the participant is not provided in the LuxDev programme. Table 16

Documents Required 2008-10 U#DP LuxDev Application Form (Company) √ √ Certificate of Business registration √ √ Pay roll stamped by Tax administration √ Copy of Bank Account for Company √ √ Application Form (Job-seekers) √ √ Job seekers card (red card) √ √ Four week Jobsearch prior to entry into Programme √ Individual Employment Plan √ Individual Training Plan √ Certificate for VTC Graduates √ ID of jobseeker √ MOU (MLWS - Company - Project) √ √ Payment Application √ Request for reimbursement √ √ Proof of Salary payment √ √ Attendance sheet √ √ Report on the skills acquired √

Another EU funded project (KOSVET V1), has been operating in 2009-2011and has also been providing training on the job for unemployed jobseekers (17-35 Yrs of age). The period of training is also of 3 months duration and the VTC is also involved. However the employers and trainees are chosen by the PES staff without any further intervention on the part of the project. There is evidence that the employers did not have to undergo the rigorous inspection and were not subject to the same requirements as the UNDP managed projects. Participants were not required to have an IEP developed jointly by the PES and the participant. There is also a possibility that some of the trainees on the KOSVET project may have already benefited from on the job training with the UNDP projects before entry into the EU-funded programme. Rigorous participant and employer selection are fundamental requirements for any well-designed ALMP. Programme quality control and monitoring, as well as professional assessment of competencies acquired are also fundamental to a well- designed ALMP. In that regard it is clear that the UNDP Programmes lead the way in Kosovo and should be considered a benchmark for all OJT, INST and Internship programmes in Kosovo. While such rigorous systems can seem a burden to PES staff, any compromise can have a significant impact on quality of training and job placement outcomes.

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8. Conclusions and Recommendations

The UNDP Active Labour Market for Youth project has achieved its main aims of ensuring that labour market institutions are capable of providing a package of services and ALMPs comprising job-search assistance, employment counselling, labour market training, and conducting skills’ needs surveys to identify skills and competencies required in the labour market. In particular the ALMPs have proven to be robust and have produced significant improvements in the net employment rate for disadvantaged and marginalised groups, which rate has also been sustained from 2008 on, as set out in this evaluation report. While initially the cost per placement appears high, a simple monetary calculation does not take into account the overall improvement in skills of the total participant population through the acquisition of career-focused hard and soft skills. This will ultimately pay an increased dividend when the labour market improves for those who remain unemployed or indeed if they travel abroad for employment. An outstanding element of the project design is the focus on individual counselling to develop the Individual Employment Plan and the involvement of the VTCs in developing competency based training plans for each participant. The well designed operational handbook and the comprehensive set of project administrative documentation are designed to ensure that process quality is maintained and that participants are protected and that employers have clear guidelines and understand their roles and responsibilities. Programmes have been adjusted in the light of experience and in order to ensure that the administration of the programmes is aligned with the needs of the participants but also the PES and the VTCs. In that regard the INST programme has been adjusted in the past year to allow for the inclusion of vocational training centre graduates who have not had practical experience and have been out of work for 6 months and are in the designated target groups. This is a logical development of a programme that is designed to combine formal skills training with on the job practical experience. It also aligns the Programme with the LuxDev operational approach, thus reducing any scope for confusion among PES staff administering both donor schemes. This latter is also important from the labour market policy perspective of the MLSW in that the Ministry is tasked with ensuring coherence and correct targeting of ALMPs to achieve the most effective and efficient delivery of ALMPs for young people, ethnic minorities and people with disabilities (PWD). The Project has in that regard, provided technical assistance to the MLSW and other relevant line ministries to assist in the implementation of the Employment Strategy of Kosovo. This aspect of the project has had a significant impact on labour market policy development and has provided extra policy and programme development resources to the understaffed Employment Division of the MLSW through aspects such as skills surveys, labour market information systems and a review of the PES.

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Recommendations

1. There are a number of donors providing similar programmes to similar target groups. There is a need to ensure that a consistent approach to the delivery of all donor-funded ALMPs is in place. The maintenance of quality is central to this, as is a clear set of guidelines and rules for the delivery of the ALMPs. The UNDP approach to the delivery of ALMPs represents best international practice and should be the benchmark for the delivery of ALMPs in Kosovo. The engagement of all the local labour market institutions and actors in the delivery process is key to the future coherent development of active labour market policy and programmes in Kosovo. The desire of donors to commit funds through ALMPs has to be guided by an agreed set of National priorities and delivery approaches and guidelines. Considering the current stage of development of the labour market institutions in Kosovo, are enforcement of the MLSW role in the delivery of ALMPs is recommended and a best practice National model and guidelines for the delivery of ALMPs be introduced based on the UNDP model.

2. Monitoring of participants and employers is a fundamental and key foundation block of the ALMPs. The UNDP staff ensure that the relevant PES Advisers undertake joint monitoring missions, thus reinforcing and transferring best practice to the PES staff. The VTC staff are also engaged in monitoring some of the participants. There is scope for reinforcing the PES role in the monitoring of the programmes and further training of the PES staff in that regard is suggested. In the future it would be desirable if the PES could be tasked with the delivery and monitoring of the ALMPs without the field support from the UNDP staff. It is clear that this will not happen immediately and that further development of the PES staff is required.

3. Following on from recommendation 2 above, there is scope for involving the 3

UNDP programme staff in the development and delivery of a training programme to reinforce the role of the PES in the delivery and monitoring of the programmes with a view to transferring some of the responsibilities of the UNDP field staff to the PES. This would also be dependent on the implementation of recommendation 4 below.

4. Case management is not yet in place in the PES and there is a clear need to

provide training in this area in order to equip staff with the skills to adopt this commonly used approach to case-loading clients. (ICT systems would also need to be put in place and to be aligned and adjusted to support such a case management approach). It is appropriate that such on-going in-service training be provided as a routine staff development programme each year. In the context of the IEP and the training plan, there is also a need to professionalise the work of PES Advisers to bring them more in line with the skills sets available to professional employment counsellors. A basic course (part-time over 6 months) could be delivered to all the relevant staff and would consist of an introduction to professional vocational guidance in the PES. The basic level could be put in place quickly. It could be delivered in an open learning format incorporating home based learning materials and workshops. The methodology of the workshops would be based on an experiential approach which encourages people to engage in a critically reflective process of learning. The course would allow an

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exploration of the models and approaches to guidance and counselling; client case review and reflection on good practice and applied guidance skills (See appendix 1).

5. The survey undertaken as part of this evaluation has highlighted the need to

review the targeting of the Programmes. While is possible that some interviewees have confused the OJT and the Internship programmes, it seems that some of the participants on the Internship programme were not University graduates. There is also a lower than expected representation of participants from households in receipt of social assistance and from ethnic minorities and PWDs. There is also some evidence that some participants were employed before entry onto the ALMP. It is recommended that the issue of targeting be investigated by the UNDP and if required, measures be put in place to ensure correct targeting. Targeting of employers needs also to be reinforced with an increased emphasis on targeting the manufacturing sector.

6. Following on from recommendation 5 above, the introduction of a more

scientific system of client profiling in the PES is proposed. This would allow for more accurate identification of the target groups. The system would be tailored to the conditions in Kosovo and could be designed for manual operation using pencil and paper or computerised systems. It would be based on the available information on the structure and distribution of disadvantage in the Kosovo population. If necessary a new tailored study of disadvantage linked into a prospective profiling system could be undertaken. Appendix 2 gives an outline of how the system could operate.

7. Placement outcomes from the OJT and INST programmes need to be

improved. As discussed earlier in this report, the Internship programme is producing good job placement results for both sexes, albeit with the possibility of deadweight. The converse is true when it comes to gender, for the OJT and INST programmes, as set out above. It is recommended that this issue be investigated as to why employment for females is apparently not sustained post-programme for OJT and INST.

8. The introduction of a new Self-Employment Programme should be

considered, particularly as there are few jobs available for the target groups. This would combine VTC training in the development of products, business plans and marketing and combined with post-training ongoing mentoring. This coupled with an enterprise allowance for the participants for say 6-12 months has the potential to produce good results in a labour market where there are few jobs. A moratorium on taxation of these self-employed, scaled over a three year period, could also have an impact on reducing informality. This would mean that in the first year the self-employed young person would pay no tax on earnings, in the second year would pay 20% of the normal tax bill and 50% in the third year then 100% for the fourth year. It may also be worthwhile considering the possibility of training the existing 3 UNDP project staff as business mentors and concentrating their work more on proactive interventions rather than pure monitoring.

9. The UNDP managed ALMPs are designed to be evaluated using the

experimental approach of having a control group that is populated by every 5th

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prospective participant who will have the same characteristics as the final participants. This is the gold standard of evaluation methodologies. There are a number of issues in the operation of this approach in relation to the ALMPs. The contact information for the 2008 control group was sparse with the result that it was impossible to contact many of them. This may also be due to migration/displacement on the part of some of the control group. It also proved difficult to contact some of the 2009 cohort for similar reasons. As a result of this we don’t necessarily have a representative surveyed control group for the purposes of this evaluation. The alternative approach to the control group issue would be to use a quasi-experimental approach by using administrative data to compare an extract from the PES register counselled jobseekers with the same characteristics as the participants (registration date, gender, disadvantaged, education, experience and so on). However in Kosovo the administrative data on counselled clients is dispersed and is not readily available in one database. It is recommended that the experimental approach be reviewed. It is possible that a once off experimental approach with a larger sample may be more effective and produce definitive and reliable measures of the Programmes relative success. This could be done by selecting a nine-month time period and selecting a once-off 50% control group, where every second prospective participant is relegated to the control group. The participants would then be followed up say 6 months after the nine-month period is finished. This once-off experiment could produce more accurate outcomes. This approach it worth further exploration.

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Appendix 1

A PES Course in Counselling and Guidance skills. The course is designed to be highly interactive with a high involvement of participants through small and large group participation. Course material would include a large number of hand-outs and PowerPoint slides. Further reading by participants would be encouraged. As part of the training, participants could be asked to do homework which can include preparation of case-studies for presentation to the group. These case studies and the group/class response to them can be written up in a two page report by the case study presenter. Short essays may be assigned on particular theories of career development/choice thus reinforcing learning at the previous session, which can then be presented to the group. Role-plays of guidance interviews may be introduced. A service network audit may be completed by each participant in which the local network of supports useful in the guidance process is identified and written up as an assignment. Participants would also be asked to maintain a learning journal. Some of these assignments and written works may also be used in the certification process for each participant. Course Outline

The course would aim to allow PES staff to take a step back from daily work in order to review, evaluate and gain further familiarity with the person centred, process model approach to vocational guidance. It would be designed to be practical but also to provide some insights into the theoretical foundations of our work with Jobseekers in the PES. It would also designed also to allow PES advisers to assess their own professional approach to guidance in the PES and to reinforce it or make changes as you may wish. The course would set out a systematic helping model for jobseekers which supports the modern professional placement service and would be designed to offer an opportunity to look again at the way we work with our clients.

The Course could comprise five modules as follows:

Guidance-Counselling Psychotherapy

The Guidance Interview. Dealing with Difficult Clients. The Guidance Practitioner. The Tools of Guidance.

Workshop themes could include adult development and the guidance process; models of adult guidance; applied guidance skills/IEP/action planning; support systems, contracts and boundaries; change, transition and loss; understanding aggression and conflict; developing a quality of PES advisers’ work life. Assessment procedures can include on the job skills applications/case presentation, learning journal, essays and interview by the trainer. Competencies developed would include interpersonal competencies in skills and strategies used in advising, informing and guidance, assessing information and contacts in the labour market context, working more effectively with others in teams and networks, managing relations and boundaries with clients, defining roles in different situations and settings.

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Appendix 2

Labour Market Profiling of Disadvantaged and Vulnerable Groups

Profiling is currently one of the key areas of experimentation and study in European Public Employment Services (PES). Profiling in the main, is basically a way of identifying those clients in most need when they register with PES so that PES resources are properly and cost-effectively targeted. The idea is that you don’t engage with clients who can help themselves but concentrate on the ones that do need help. There are a number of approaches used (Assessment by counsellor, Group screening, Econometric model) and the one generating the most interest at present is the econometric approach. We can describe the characteristics of each approach as follows:

Assessment by counsellor

In this approach currently used in PES, the assessment of the risk of long-term unemployment is carried out solely by PES staff on the basis of interviews with the unemployed. The risk assessment can be more or less formalised as regards the use of questionnaires and checklists. The main advantages of this approach are that it captures individual, subjective risk factors and a needs assessment is easily established. As to the disadvantages the approach is costly and the accuracy of the identification can vary substantially between individual Employment Mediators. Group screening

In this approach the risk is determined on the basis of an individual’s belonging to one or more at-risk target groups; typically identified by statistical analysis. The main advantages of the approach are low costs and objectiveness, as the assessment is counsellor independent. The disadvantages of the approach relate to the lack of subjective criteria and inflexibility as the assessment is based on group characteristics only.

Econometric (Statistical) model

In an econometric model individual characteristics are fed into a mathematical model based on statistical indicators and knowledge of causal relationships. Subsequently a risk measure is calculated. The main advantages include low costs, objectiveness and a combination of theory and empirical data. As to disadvantages of the model one can point to the risk of inflexible decision rules as well as to the complexity of building the model, which requires access to statistical data that must be regularly updated. The Australian Job Seeker Classification Instrument (JSCI) is based on the Econometric model and computes the risk of becoming long-term unemployed on the basis of a number of individual characteristics. Based on their JSCI results, job seekers are referred to the level of Job Services Australia assistance that best suits their needs. Where barriers are identified through the JSCI that indicate a potential need for the most intensive Job Services Australia assistance or participation in Disability Employment Services (DES), the job seeker will undertake an additional comprehensive Job Capacity Assessment (JCA) before referral to the most suitable specialised service.

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The JSCI computes the risk of becoming long-term unemployed on the basis of 18 individual characteristics as follows:

1. Age and Gender 2. Work Experience 3. Job Seeker History 4. Educational Attainment 5. Vocational Qualifications 6. English Proficiency 7. Country of Birth 8. Indigenous Status 9. Indigenous Location 10. Geographic 11. Proximity to a Labour Market 12. Access to Transport 13. Contractibility (e.g. telephone) 14. Disability/Medical Conditions 15. Stability of Residence 16. Living Circumstances 17. Criminal Convictions 18. Personal Factors

Only job seekers with a high risk are counselled immediately by their case managers, whereas low-risk job seekers are eligible for job search training only after a few months. Factors creating Disadvantage in Kosovo

We have good information on which factors are likely to create disadvantage in the Labour market. We can develop a simple and easy to use profiling tool based on our present knowledge of the factors likely to create barriers to labour market entry. Being male increases the probability of having a job. These Gender issues in the labour market need to be explored further in order to better understand the mechanisms through which the labour market might exclude females thus making them more prone to vulnerability. Education and work experience have a strong impact on increasing employment. Experience can have a larger impact than education. For each year of experience, the probability of having a job increases. Employment is also increased by availability of land, which is related to employment in agriculture or self-employment in family farming.

In neighbouring Albania for instance being male and having children increases the probability of employment, however when children is interacted with females, we find out that it reduces the probability of employment. This shows that not only are females responsible for child-care, but also their probability of employment is reduced most probably as a result of taking time out of the labour market as a result of child bearing and rearing responsibilities. As mentioned above, children increase the probably of employment for males, supporting the findings in the literature that married men with children are perceived as more productive in the labour market. As with poverty, living in the mountain areas compared to the other areas reduces the probability of employment by about 15%.

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Factors Influencing chance of employment of disadvantaged in Albanian Labour market as set out in the Report on Vulnerable Groups of being Excluded in the Labour Market JSCI correlation

Sex male +22% Gender

Land +7% Living in Mountains – 15% Location

Experience(for each year) +4.6% Work Exp

Children m +4% f -3% Family Status

Education (for each year) +2.5% Education

A positive % indicates that the probability of having employment is increased by that

amount and a negative % reduces the probability by that amount

m=male, f=female

The research shows also that Roma and Egyptian community members face particular difficulties in the labour market and that their unemployment duration is much longer than average. People with Disabilities (PWD) face economic as well as social constraints. In cases where PWD are capable of work, they may be excluded from the labour market because of discrimination or because workplaces do not adapt to meet the special needs (e.g wheelchair access). The landless or near landless6 are another vulnerable group not only in terms of income, but also in terms of the challenges they face. Living in rural areas and not holding land poses major difficulties in sustaining livelihoods since rural non-farm employment in these areas is limited and the economic as well as labour market conditions in the rural areas are less favourable than in the rest of the country A Profiling Model for the Kosovo Labour Market

We can combine the above observations and factors with the most common variables used by the profiling models of various countries to compute risk such as : age and gender; educational attainment; geographical location; family status and income; disability/medical condition; unemployment history and access to transport (or proximity to the labour market).Each factor can be assigned a numerical weight (score), indicative of the average contribution the factor makes to the difficulty of the individual in the labour market based on our research. For example, a scale 0 to 10 scale may be used, with “0” indicating no difficulty and “10” the highest possible difficulty. An individual’s score, obtained by summing all the separate weights for that person, will indicate the overall employment difficulty in comparison with others. For example, an individual scoring less than 20 in the experimental scale below is classified as at low difficulties (Stream 1), another scoring between 21 and 29 (Stream 2) is at medium difficulty in the labour market, while individuals scoring between 29+ (Stream 3) are categorised as the most disadvantaged and vulnerable. A Profiling Template

The table below provides an illustrative example of a numerical scoring system applied to two individuals. The final rank may be confirmed or adjusted by a PES

6 Landless or near landless are all those whose landholding are less than 0.5 ha.

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Adviser during the individual counselling interview. For instance, the score assigned to the factor “family status” may be increased, if the dependants for example are children below school age, or if the partner is unemployed.

Factors

Points

Jobseeker 1

Score

Jobseeker 2

Score

Age

16-19 20-35 36-45 45+

5 4 5

10

Age is 20 4

Age is 20 4

Sex

M F

0 3

Female 3

Male 0

Literacy and

numeracy

Good Limited

0 5

Poor Literacy 5

Literate 0

Educational

attainment

< 10 yrs 10yrs 11 yrs 12 yrs

5 4 2 1

Primary 5

11 years 2

Vocational

qualification

Yes No

0 3

#one 3

Yes 0

Work experience

None < 1 yr 1-2 2+

8 4 1 0

Has worked for 3

months on farm

4

Has worked for 9

months with his uncle

4

Family status Male single Male with Children Female single Female with Children

2 0 3 5

Female single

3

Male single

2

Location

Urban Rural Mountains

0 3 6

Lives in Village in

central Kosovo

3

Lives in Pristina 0

Transport

None Public Car/Motorbike Bicycle

4 1 1 2

Public Transport

available

1

Public Transport

available

1

Disability/medical

condition

Yes No

10 0

#one 0

#one 0

Unemployment

duration

< 3 months 3-6 Months 7-12 12-24 24+

0 0 5 8

10

Has been out of

work for 18 months

8

Has been out of work

for 12 months

8

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Roma/Egyptian

Yes No

10 0

#o 0

#o 0

Total 39 21

Stream 1 (score 0-19)

Stream 2 (score 20-29)

Stream 3 (score 29+)

Stream 3

Stream2

Exploration of Categories and Factors

We can explore these categories and factors in more detail as follows:

− Age. This factor measures the labour market perception of age as an employment barrier. Older workers, for instance, are more likely to become unemployed compared to prime age workers. Young people are less likely to find a job due to their lack of work experience or qualifications that are relevant for the labour market. Based on analysis by age-group it is possible to assign different weights to different age-cohorts. For example, if youth employment data reveal that teenagers are twice as likely to be employed in low earning jobs compared to young adults, the score assigned to the age-group 16-19 will be more that assigned to young adults (In our example profiling exercise we have applied the 4 points to 20-25 year olds.)

− Sex. In certain countries, gender alone is only marginally associated with disadvantage, while other factors, such as educational attainment and family status are more relevant for computing risks. However, Kosovo data points to clear gender-related differences. This is reflected in our scoring points scheme where based on the research in neighbouring Albania that men are 22% more likely to be employed, the points are therefore 3 for females and 0 for men

− Literacy: the data of many countries point to a clear correlation between low levels of literacy and numeracy and labour market disadvantage. Two rating levels can be envisaged for literacy and numeracy: “good” (with zero points), “limited” (with 5 points).

− Educational attainment. Low education levels are associated with higher vulnerability through low income and job insecurity. Research in Albania indicates that in addition, children from low education families are at higher risk of acquiring low education themselves and therefore at higher risk of remaining vulnerable. Data indicates that individuals in the group of no education or primary education live in families where the average level of education of the household is lower than that of the group of more than primary education. In addition individuals in these vulnerable groups live in households where the highest levels of education achieved is three years less than that of the other group. The household heads in the vulnerable group also have about three years less education that the heads of the other group. The level of educational attainment has a significant impact on employment outcomes and the scoring of this factor should follow the organisation of the national educational system and be anchored to the highest level completed.

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The ratings can include 5 for less than basic education, 4 for 10 yrs education 2 for 11 years and 1 for 12, 0 for higher levels. This follows the research which indicates that in Kosovo for each year of education, the probability of having a job increases.

− Vocational qualifications. The probability of having poor employment outcomes is also related to the lack of vocational or occupational qualifications. Such qualifications may be gained through school, or work experience or a combination of both. The score is organised around two categories: “no vocational occupation” 3 points; and “(relevant) vocational qualifications”, with this latter having a zero weight.

− Family status. This refers to the position of individuals within families of different types. Disadvantaged and vulnerable women live on average in larger households than non-vulnerable women. Due to lower education, lower work experience, more child-care responsibilities, and larger distances to primary schools and public transportation, vulnerable women are at much higher risk of exclusion from the labour market than the other group. As with the poor in general, vulnerable women are predominantly found in the rural areas and in the mountain areas. In our profiling model being female and single attracts a score of 3 points reflecting the increased difficulties for women in the labour market but if married with children the score increase to 5 points. Being male and married with children attracts a 0 rating and whereas male and single scores 2 on our points scale.

− Geographical location. This factor measures the disadvantage arising from living in a particular geographical location. The condition of the economy in the region of residence has a great influence on the probability of finding decent work. Being located in the mountains creates extra barriers to gaining employment. Geographical regions can be classified into three categories Urban (0 points), Rural (3 points) and Mountains (6)

− Transport (proximity to the labour market).The chances of an individual of having decent employment outcomes are directly related to his/her ability to physically access the labour market. No transport attracts a score of 4, public 1, car 1 and bicycle 2.

− Disability/medical condition. People with disabilities (PWD) face economic as well as social constraints, which places them in a vulnerable position. In cases when they are capable for work, they may be excluded either because of discrimination, or because work places do not accommodate their special needs. According to studies conducted in Kosovo the main barrier to obtaining employment are: the lack of genuine implementation and monitoring of the legislation and policies that guarantee the right to employment, discrimination and stigma, the lack of accessible infrastructure in the cities and at the workplaces, poor education and special needs training. These multiple factors have an excessive impact on their participation on the labour market and

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employability. Having a disability attracts a maximum score of 10 in our profiling scale.

− Work experience . Individuals with no or inadequate work experience are generally considered disadvantaged in the labour market. Research indicates that in Albania for example experience has a larger impact than education. For each year of experience in Albania for example, the probability of having a job increases by 4.6%, whereas for each year of education, the probability of having a job increases by 2.5%. In our profiling system we reflect this by scoring no experience at 8 points, less than one year at 4, 1-2 years at 1 and 2 years plus at 0.

− Duration of unemployment. Employment prospects deteriorate as the duration of unemployment grows. Significant deterioration occurs around the 6 month mark, when motivation to search for work start to decline; around the 12 month period, when the impact of unemployment sets in with skills, work experience and work habits having already deteriorated considerably. In our profiling tool 3 months attracts a 0 score, 3-6 months a 0 score, 7-12 months a score of 5 points, 2-24 months a score of 8 and 24 months plus a maximum score of 10 points.

− Roma and Egyptian Communities. The Roma community is characterised by very low levels of employment, very high levels of unemployment, and lack of employment opportunities. The reasons for this are various, complex and interconnected and include aspects such as discrimination, low level of education and qualification, poor housing conditions and lack of employment and training programmes targeting Roma and Egyptians. Given the lack of employment opportunities and employability for the community, the income generating activities of the Roma are low and unsustainable. The main sources of income come from low-skill jobs and non-formal sector. The main activities in which members of this community are usually engaged are collecting of scrap metal, street cleaning, seasonal work in the agricultural sector and second hand clothing. In our Profiling tool being in the Roma and Egyptian communities attracts a maximum score of 10 points.

It would be necessary to experiment with this profiling tool and reach a consensus as to the accuracy of the tool in the context of an expert group of PES advisers and with help from an economist expert in econometric profiling. But in the short term the tool is sufficiently aligned to our current research on the disadvantaged and vulnerable in Albania that it can be used in a practical way to identify those jobseekers experiencing most disadvantage in the employment market.

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Appendix 3

Other activities undertaken by the Active Labour Market for Youth Project

2008-2010

2008

� Review of the individualised employment assistance provided to the unemployed;

� Capacity building of staff of labour market institutions to design and conduct skills surveys among employers and detection of occupations required by the labour market;

� Identification of the mix of vocational and non-vocational skills required by priority occupations;

� Preparation of standardized training plans for the delivery of competency based training to young jobseekers participating in active labour market programmes;

� A tracer analysis to measure the relevance of public training provision; � Development of the core part of competency based curricula for the three

priority occupations identified through the skills needs survey; � Preparatory work on the design of welfare-to-work programmes; � Desk research on best practice in self-employment promotion for young

people.

� Workshop organised by the project (additional to day-to-day coaching) - assess the employment policies implemented to date, discuss and improve as

per lessons learnt; - identify gaps and enhance cooperation between PES&VTC - initial discussions to tailor the new scheme to support Formal Vocational

Education students by implementing “Practical Learning and Professional Training in Enterprises”.

2009

� Group and one-to-one coaching to local employment offices’ counsellors to: 1) use the SIMP features to identify young unemployed at risk of labour market exclusion and 2) tailor employment service and programmes to individual needs;

� Upgrade counsellors’ skills in the provision of self-employment advice to young people;

� Modularized learning units for the curricula of the three priority occupations identified developed;

� Design and conduct upgrading coaching sessions for self-employment trainers and disseminate the newly acquired information on financing schemes and best practices to promote self-employment among young people;

� Editing, design and lay-out for publication of the tools developed under the project.

� Guidelines/tools developed: 1. Guides to detect skills needs (Albanian and Serbian language) 2. Easing the transition of young people to work: practices and tools (Eng, Alb and Serb language)

� The final report for the cooperation period January 2008 to March 2009,

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include the following Annexes: Annex 1 – Employers’ skills needs survey Annex 2 – Tracer Analysis of public vocational training provision Annex 3 – From welfare to work programmes Annex 4 – Promoting self-employment opportunities among young

people in Kosovo 2010

� Conducted the external evaluation of the pilot-project implemented during

2009 - as ‘Professional Practice in Enterprises for VET Students’ (MEST, MLSW, private sector)

� Thorough assessment of Public Employment Services - review and assess the current system that delivers public employment services, the PES policy and strategy, its organisational structure and functions, trends in service delivery, as well as human and financial resources. Recommendations of this report have been incorporated in the Ministry’s strategic documents.

� Organised workshops to draft the Operations Manual that would facilitate the process of organising work-based training apprenticeship scheme for Vocational Education Students (MEST, MLSW, Municipalities, Schools, private sector)

� Utilized international expertise in cooperation with the UNV office to support the private sector enterprises aiming at expanding their business hence generating employment opportunities (coffee processing, chocolate production, diary products

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