An Assessment of the U.S. Online Doctorate Market · uncommon among online doctorate degree...

Online Higher Education Learning Collaborative

An Assessment of the U.S. Online Doctorate Market

Catalog No. 143OHECRR0310March 2010

© 2010 Eduventures, Inc. 22

Background

Inquiry Overview

Table of Contents

Inquiry Overview 2

Executive Summary 3

Methodology 8

Key Findings 10

Recommendations 35

Future Research 38

Appendix – please see attached Excel workbook

Key Question: Should the inquiring member enter the online doctorate market? If so, which program areas offer potential for optimizing fit and growth?

• The inquiring member is in the process of assessing the feasibility of offering a wholly or majority online doctoral program. Of primary concern is whether such an offering will support its character and mission and whether it has the resources to invest in program development and operation. Before delving too deeply into the development process, the inquiring member seeks a deeper understanding of the current state of the online doctorate market.

• Specific questions to consider in this study include the following:– Market Landscape: Who currently offers wholly or

majority online doctoral programs? Which disciplines are most prominent?

– Competitor Profiling: Who are the inquiring member’s direct peers/competitors in this space? Among peers/competitors, how are wholly or majority online doctoral programs structured?

– Institutional Fit: Does a wholly or majority online doctoral program fit the inquiring member’s brand? What subject areas would best fit? What obstacles/challenges are faced by providers of wholly or majority online doctoral programs?


Executive Summary


Executive Summary

New Online Doctorate Degree Providers Face Growing Market Dominated by Few Major Degree Providers and Career-Oriented Disciplines

• Online Doctorate Market Overview: The doctorate market currently exhibits a lower online market share (estimated 13.3% in 2009) than that of the master’s market (24.4%) but higher online market shares than those of the undergraduate markets (10.1% for associate and 8.3% for bachelor’s).

– Despite the higher online market share, the online doctorate market is much smaller in terms of absolute size (estimated 52,000 in 2009) compared to the bachelor’s (835,000) and associate (486,000) markets. Estimated online enrollments at the master’s level number approximately 510,000 in 2009.

– Showing positive signs of development, online enrollments increased approximately 13% from 2008 to 2009 at the doctorate level.

• Competitive Overview: The competitive landscape is characterized by a few major players, typically for-profit institutions, that provide a large number of online doctorate programs and numerous institutions that offer one or two programs.

– Based on a national competitive scan, the top ten online doctorate degree providers (as defined by number of online doctoral programs offered) predominantly consist of for-profit institutions: Capella University, University of the Rockies, Walden University, University of Phoenix, Argosy University, Colorado Technical University, and Northcentral University. Exceptions to this are the University of Florida, Regent University, and Nova Southeastern University.

• Program Overview: Similar to other credential levels, the supply of online doctorate programs tend to skew toward career-oriented disciplines.

– By far, the largest fields in the online doctoral space are education, health services, and business.


Executive Summary

• General Program Structure: Although the curriculum varies depending upon the program area, core courses tend to focus on foundational field knowledge, theory, and research methodology. The vast majority of the profiled institutions require a dissertation and a brief residency period for program completion. Internship requirements, which tend to be integrated in practitioner-oriented degree programs, are relatively uncommon and teaching requirements are virtually non-existent.

• Points of Differentiation: While marketing messages typically highlight some combination of the flexibility of online learning, curriculum rigor, faculty quality, and academic support in general, less common points of differentiation among sample institutions reference third party recognition and rankings, particularly for program quality. Two sample institutions also offer a marketable credential to its doctoral students who have completed a certain number of credit hours but cannot complete the entire program, an uncommon practice that may attract some prospects. Compelling marketing messages that neatly tie the program mission to the overarching institutional mission are also relatively rare.

• Partnerships: Corporate partnerships and alliances with higher education institutions (i.e. feeder programs) have the potential to increase the visibility of online offerings and to recruit prospects, but relatively few institutions seem to engage in these partnerships.

• Specialized Accreditation: Beyond regional accreditation, specialized accreditation is somewhat uncommon among online doctorate degree providers except in the nursing discipline.

Partnerships, Specialized Accreditation, and Third Party Recognition Offer Differentiation from Increasing Competition


Executive Summary

• Common Challenges in New Program Development: The most common challenge cited in the development process is recruiting qualified faculty with the combination of a strong research background, an interest in online instruction, and the technical skills to teach online.

• Recommendations from Existing Providers: Current providers interviewed for this study agree that newcomers should test the market by starting small, focusing on internal strengths, existing program inventory, and available resources to minimize the risk inherent in launching a new program. In addition to recruiting the “right” faculty, the inquiring member should also consider strengthening relationships with existing faculty who are committed to providing a quality doctoral learning experience in an non-traditional way.

Leveraging Internal Strengths and Resources Key to Driving Early Success, Though Faculty Recruitment Challenges May Temper Momentum


Executive Summary

Developing Online Doctoral Market Suggests Potential Opportunity for New Degree Providers• The Opportunity: A still developing market that has yet to find its ceiling, estimated online doctoral

enrollment increased 13% over the past year, acquiring approximately 6,000 new enrollments. Relatively new degree providers report of rapid enrollment growth in light of a perceived unmet demand for online programming at the doctorate level. The inquiring member’s expertise in delivering online master’s programs combined with the growing market may provide a strategic opportunity for entering the online doctoral space.

– Working adult learners, who require the flexibility of online learning, are likely to be key growth drivers but equally, program length and substantial time and financial commitments may temper some of this growth.

– Success of the online master’s market may also provide a recruitment channel and a source of enrollment for online doctoral programs.

– Competitive scans reveal that online doctoral programs tend to skew toward career-oriented disciplines with education, health services, and business exhibiting the most activity.

– Any commentary on the demand for online doctorate degrees that is not partially informed by student demand data and labor market trends, however, remains incomplete.

• Recommendations: Should the inquiring member choose to enter the online doctoral market, OHE-LC researchers recommend the following:

– Consider the advantages as well as the limitations of entering in a more established program area such as health services and business (i.e. more competition but also larger prospect pool?) versus a niche field such as security and criminal justice and public administration (i.e. less competition but also smaller prospect pool?).

– Leverage its own successes in delivering online programs, existing program inventory, internal faculty resources, and regional brand strength in developing online doctoral programs

– Start small in order to test the market and to minimize the risk inherent in launching a new program– Consider offering some sort of a marketable credential to doctoral students who have completed a certain

number of credit hours but cannot complete the entire program


Methodology


Methodology

Doctorate Market Overview

Program Area Assessment

Program Development Recommendations

• OHE-LC researchers mined Eduventures’ internal online program trackers for wholly or majority online doctoral programs offered by prominent online providers. OHE-LC researchers also augmented this dataset with a scan of various online higher education databases, including Petersons.com, ClassesUSA, and eLearners, among others.

• OHE-LC staff members then compiled a list of potential competitors whose online doctoral programs were profiled in greater depth. In particular, OHE-LC researchers focused on the disciplines in which the inquiring member currently offers programs at the undergraduate and master’s levels. Specific data points on curriculum, residency requirements, specialized accreditation, and marketing, among other key information, were collected.

• Finally, OHE-LC researchers interviewed three member institutions that currently offer online doctoral programs for insight into obstacles and challenges faced by institutions that participate in the online doctoral market.

• The key findings of this study are organized as follows:

Research Steps


Key Findings



• This section provides an assessment of the current state of the online doctoral market, identifying the major degree providers and disciplines in which online doctorate degrees are offered.


Program Development

Recommendations

Key Findings

© 2010 Eduventures, Inc.

Estimated Online Doctoral Enrollments Increase 13% from Prior Year; Growth to Continue?

30%

17% 17%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Associate Bachelor's Master's Doctoral

Est. Fall 2009% Growth from 2008

12

Credential Est. Fall 2008 Online Share Est. Fall 2009 Online Share

Associate 375,000 7.8% 486,000 10.1%

Bachelor’s 711,000 7.1% 835,000 8.3%

Master’s 438,000 20.9% 510,000 24.4%

Doctoral 46,000 11.8% 52,000 13.3%

• All main credentials expected to continue to grow online.• How much higher can online penetration at the doctorate

level go? What might accelerate/inhibit online penetration at the doctorate level?

• Growth among doctoral programs may be vulnerable to program length and lackluster scale.

• Success of the online master’s market, however, may provide a recruitment channel and a source of enrollment for online doctoral programs.



For-Profits Dominate Top Ten Degree Providers in Sample, Offering an Estimated 40% of Available Online Doctorate Degrees

• Based on a comprehensive sample of 86 schools offering online doctoral programs, for-profit institutions offer an estimated 38% of the available online doctorate degree programs despite constituting only 16% of all of the online doctorate degree providers.

– The top ten online doctorate degree providers (as defined by number of online doctoral programs offered) predominantly consist of for-profit institutions. Exceptions to this are the University of Florida (public), Regent University (private, not-for-profit), and Nova Southeastern University (private, not-for-profit).


45%

38%

16%

Estimated Distribution of Online Doctorate Degree Providers, By

Control

Public Private, not-for-profit Private, for-profit

Top Ten Online Doctorate Degree Providers

Institution Number of Online Doctorate Degree Programs Offered

Capella University 15University of the Rockies 14University of Florida 10

Walden University 10

Regent University 9University of Phoenix Online 9Argosy University 8Colorado Technical University Online 8

Nova Southeastern University 7Northcentral University 6

Percent of Total Number of Online Doctorate Degree Providers: 11.6%

Top Ten Share of Online Doctorate Degree Programs: 41.4%


Online Doctoral Programs Skew Toward Career-Oriented Disciplines; Education, Health Services, and Business Among Top Fields


1111122234566

1028

3755

67

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Architecture and related servicesEnglish language and literature/lettersParks, recreation, and fitness studies

Physical sciencesSocial sciences, other

Communication and journalismLiberal arts, sciences, and humanities

Security and criminal justicePhilosophy and religious studies

Public administration and social servicesTheology and religious vocations

EngineeringFamily and consumer/human sciences

Computer and information sciencesPsychology

Business, management, and marketingHealth professions and related sciences

Education

Number of Online Doctoral Programs

• In the sample of programs reviewed for this study, 86 institutions offer 232 doctorate degree programs online.

• By far, the largest fields in the online doctoral space (as defined by the number of programs provided) are career-oriented disciplines. Top program areas are education (28.9%), health services (23.7%), and business (15.9%).


Non-Profits Lead in Education and Health Services While For-Profits Dominate Business, Psychology, and Computer and Information Sciences


100%100%

50%100%

100%13%

10%

14%44%45%

100%100%

50%

100%

100%67%

88%

22%47%

24%

100%

100%

33%

90%100%

65%9%

31%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Parks, recreation, and fitness studiesSocial sciences, other

Architecture and related servicesEnglish language and literature/letters

Security and criminal justiceCommunication and journalism

Liberal arts, sciences, and humanitiesPhilosophy and religious studies

Public administration and social servicesTheology and religious vocations

Family and consumer/human sciencesEngineering

Physical sciencesComputer and information sciences

PsychologyBusiness, management, and marketing

Health professions and related sciencesEducation

Public Private, non-profit Private, for-profit




• Based on an analysis of (a) the online doctoral programs currently provided as a proxy for market demand and (b) the inquiring member’s existing program inventory, the following program areas are examined in further detail for potential development. Please refer to the Appendix for detailed competitive profiles of aspirant and peer institutions.

Program Development

Recommendations

Key Findings


Program Area Assessment: Sample Institutions

The following analysis rests upon the competitive profiles of the following sample institutions.

Institution State Tax Status Credential Program Areas

Hea

lth S

ervi

ces

Duquesne University PA Private, not-for-profit

Ph.D. NursingD.N.P. Nursing Practice

Saybrook Graduate School CA Private, not-for-

profitPh.D. PsychologyPsy.D. Psychology

University of Phoenix Multiple locations Private, for-profit Doctor Nursing

Health Administration

Bus

ines

s

Capella University MN Private, for-profitPh.D. Business Administration

D.B.A. Business Administration

Northcentral University AZ Private, for-profitPh.D. Business Administration

D.B.A. Business Administration

Regent University VA Private, not-for-profit

Ph.D. Organizational Leadership

Doctor Strategic Leadership

Com

pute

r and

In

form

atio

n Sc

ienc

es

Capella University MN Private, for-profit Ph.D. Information Technology

Dakota State University SD Public Doctor of Science Information Systems

University of Phoenix Multiple locations Private, for-profit D.M.

Organizational Leadership/Information Systems and Technology

*N.B. Please refer to the Appendix (attached in Excel form) for the complete competitive profiles.


Program Area Assessment: Sample Institutions

The following analysis rests upon the competitive profiles of the following sample institutions (continued).

Institution State Tax Status Credential Program Areas

Engi

neer

ing

Mississippi State University MS Public Ph.D. Engineering

University of Alabama in Huntsville AL Public Ph.D. Engineering

University of Tennessee Space Institute TN Public Doctor Industrial Engineering

Publ

ic

Adm

inis

trat

ion

Capella University MN Private, for-profit

Ph.D. Public Administration

D.P.A. Public Administration

Walden University MN Private, for-profit Ph.D. Public Policy and Administration

Secu

rity

and

Crim

inal

Ju

stic

e Capella University MN Private, for-profit Ph.D. Public Safety

Henley-Putnam University CA Private, for-profit Doctorate Strategic Security

*N.B. Please refer to the Appendix (attached in Excel form) for the complete competitive profiles.


Curriculum• Although the actual courses vary depending upon the program area and the institution, core curricular

components tend to include foundational field knowledge in terms of theory and history, philosophy, and research methodology. Please refer to the Appendix for further curricular details on the profiled programs.

• Nearly all of the profiled institutions require a dissertation for program completion. Capstone projects, comprehensive examinations, and/or internship experience are required in addition to the dissertation at some institutions.

– For example, Capella and Northcentral require comprehensive examinations for the completion of most of their doctorate degree programs. Few online doctoral programs appear to require applied work experience but those that do -- Saybrook (Psy.D.), Duquesne (D.N.P.), and Capella (D.P.A.) -- are all practitioner-oriented degrees.

Residency Requirements• A brief residency is commonly required by the sample institutions. Residency periods vary widely in length,

ranging from three four-day residential colloquia (Capella) to two consecutive semesters (Tennessee Space Institute).

– Of the profiled institutions, Mississippi State, Northcentral, and Phoenix are the only schools that do not appear to require a residency period.

Teaching Requirements• None of the profiled institutions appear to mandate teaching requirements, probably the result of logistical

and implementation challenges entailed in the effort. However, given the online doctoral student’s likely propensity for online instruction and a limited supply of qualified online instructors in general, might there be a differentiation opportunity for an institution to incorporate online teaching requirements into its program?

Program Area Assessment: Curriculum and Residency

Curricula Commonly Emphasize Research and Integrate Brief Residencies, But Teaching Requirements Virtually Non-Existent


More Established Program Areas, Health and Business, Generally Capture Higher Tuition Rates Among Profiled Institutions

Program Area Assessment: Program Length and Costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400

Estim

tate

d N

umbe

r of C

redi

ts

Estimated Tuition Per Credit

Capella* - Business, CIS, Criminal Justice, Public Administration

Phoenix -Business and CIS

Saybrook**

Henley-Putnam**

Walden*

Estimated Total TuitionMinimum: $27,360 (Tennessee –Industrial Engineering – Resident)Maximum: $82,584 (Tennessee –Industrial Engineering – Non-Resident)Median: $49,450Mean: $46,928

N.B. *Capella and Walden operate on a quarter credit system. **Saybrook and Henley-Putnam operate on a unit system.

Program AreaHealth Services RedBusiness BlueComputer and Information Sciences

Orange

Criminal justice YellowEngineering GreenPublic administration Purple

Estimated Total CreditsMinimum: 33 (Duquesne – D.N.P.)Maximum: 88 (Dakota State –Information Systems)Median: 60Mean: 62


Common Points of Positioning• Given the observation that there is relatively less competition in the online doctoral

market, particularly in the less established program areas (i.e. computer and information sciences, public administration, engineering), the majority of the profiled institutions do not appear to differentiate very strongly from each other.

• Marketing messages exhibited by the profiled institutions tend to highlight some combination of the following: convenience and flexibility of online learning, interactive learning environment, evolving curriculum that keeps up-to-date with the changing needs of the labor market, faculty quality, and academic support.

• Profiled institutions that are not predominantly online degree providers also tend to emphasize that their online programs manifest the same quality and rigor as their on-ground counterpart programs.

Program Area Assessment: Marketing and Positioning

Developing Online Doctoral Market Has Allowed for Undifferentiated Positioning Thus Far …


Uncommon Positioning: Possible Differentiation?• Reference to third party rankings and recognition is fairly uncommon among the sample institutions,

particularly those that speak directly to a specific program, and offer an unusual way of differentiating from the rest of the competition. About 42% of the profiled institutions – Capella, Duquesne, Mississippi State, Phoenix, and Regent – integrate third party recognition into their marketing messages.

– In terms of recognition awarded specifically for program quality, Mississippi State was ranked #11 among the “Best Buy Online Degrees in Engineering” by Geteducated.com. Duquesne was designated by the National League for Nursing as a “Center for Excellence in Nursing Education for Creating Environments that Promote Student Learning and Profession.”

• Offering a marketable credential to students who have completed a certain number of credit hours but cannot complete the entire program is also an uncommon practice that may attract prospective students.

– Among the profiled institutions, Duquesne offers a post-master’s certificate to nursing students who fall in this category. Similarly, Regent provides a “Certificate of Advanced Graduate Studies” to business students who have completed 30 credit hours of coursework.

• While the majority of the profiled institutions’ marketing messages are fairly generic, Saybrook’sdifferentiation position is unusual in that it rests upon a holistic approach to teaching which alludes to its overarching mission in developing students who will contribute to societal improvement.

– Saybrook notes, “In a time when most academic and professional psychology focuses on biomedical breakthroughs, the College's Psychology degree programs focus on people. Our research and practice encourages the best in humanity - while also adhering to rigorous scholastic standards and withstanding the test of time. By producing humanistic scholars, researchers and practitioners, the College contributes to a better world.”

Program Area Assessment: Marketing and Positioning

… But Increasing Competition Will Likely Necessitate Clearer Differentiation


Partnerships• Although corporate partnerships and alliances with higher education institutions (i.e. feeder programs)

offer the potential to increase the visibility of online offerings and to recruit prospective students, relatively few institutions seem to engage actively in such partnerships.

• Among the twelve profiled institutions, only four schools offered information on their academic and corporate partnerships: Capella, Henley-Putnam, Northcentral, and Regent. Generally, these partnerships help to simplify the credit transfer process, reduce overall program costs, and connect students to potential employers. Please refer to the Appendix for detailed information on the specific partnerships.

Specialized Accreditation• Beyond regional accreditation obtained at the institutional level, specialized accreditation do not appear

very common among the sample institutions with only 26% of the 23 profiled programs bearing some form of specialized accreditation.

– Duquesne and Phoenix’s online doctoral nursing programs are accredited by the Commission on Collegiate Nursing Education (CCNE). Duquesne’s program is also accredited by the Pennsylvania State Board of Nursing.

– As the only programs among the profiled business programs to bear specialized accreditation, Northcentral’sD.B.A. and Ph.D. in Business Administration are both accredited by the Association of Collegiate Business Schools and Programs (ACBSP) and the International Assembly for Collegiate Business Education (IACBE).

Program Area Assessment: Partnerships and Accreditation

Unexploited by Sample Institutions, Partnerships and Specialized Accreditation May Offer Unusual Points of Differentiation for Newcomers


Common Education Specializations Include Educational Leadership and Educational Specialist but Scope May Exist for Teacher Education and Special Education

• Some niche education specializations in the online doctorate market include: – Agricultural Education– Counselor Education– K-12 Education Leadership– Music Education

Program Area Assessment: Education

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In the sample compiled for this report, 36 institutions offer 67 distinct online doctorate programs in education.

The most common specializations, as featured here, constitute 88% of doctorate programs provided online in education.


Public Institutions Lead in Education Market, Representing 42% of Providers and Offering 45% of Available Online Programming

Program Area Assessment: Education

Prominent Online Doctorate Degree Providers in EducationInstitution State Tax Status Credential Program Areas

University of Florida FL Public

Ed.S. Teacher Leadership for School Improvement

Ed.S. Teaching, Learning, and Facilitating Educational Change with Technology

Ed.S. Special Education: Teach WellPh.D. Educational LeadershipPh.D. Educational TechnologyPh.D. Higher Education Administration

Argosy University Multiple states

Private, for-profit

Ed.D. Community College Executive Leadership

Ed.D. Educational LeadershipEd.D. Instructional LeadershipEd.D. Teaching and Learning

University of Nebraska Lincoln NE Public

Ed.D. Educational Administration - P-12 Education

Ed.D. Educational Studies - Educational Leadership and Higher Education

Ph.D. Educational Studies - Educational Leadership and Higher Education

Ed.S. Special Education and Communication Disorders


Common Health Specializations Include Nursing and Physical Therapy but Wide Range of Concentrations Suggest Niche Market Potential

• Some niche health services specializations in the online doctorate market include: – Audiology– Pharmacy– Pediatric Occupational Therapy and Physical Therapy– Mind-Body Medicine– Sports and Performance Psychology

Program Area Assessment: Health Services

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Health Services Specializations

In the sample compiled for this report, 49 institutions offer 84 distinct online doctorate programs in health services.

The most common specializations, as featured here, constitute 70% of health-related doctorate programs provided online.


Public and Private, Not-For-Profit Institutions Represent Vast Majority, 94%, of Online Doctorate Degree Providers in Health Services

Program Area Assessment: Health Services

Prominent Online Doctorate Degree Providers in Health ServicesInstitution State Tax Status Credential Program Areas

University of the Rockies CO Private, for-profit Psy.D.

PsychologyCriminology and Justice StudiesEducational LeadershipEvaluation, Research, and MeasurementExecutive CoachingHealth and Wellness PsychologyInternational LeadershipMediation and Conflict ResolutionMental Health AdministrationNon-Profit ManagementOrganizational ConsultingOrganizational DiversityOrganizational LeadershipSports and Performance Psychology

Nova Southeastern University FL Private, not-for-

profit

D.H.Sc. Health SciencesPh.D. Occupational Therapy

SLP.D. Speech-Language PathologyDr.OT Occupational Therapy

Ph.D., P.T. Physical Therapy

Saybrook Graduate School CA Private, not-for-

profit

Psy.D. Clinical PsychologyPh.D. PsychologyPh.D. Mind-Body Medicine

University of Phoenix Online

Multiple states Private, for-profit

Ph.D. Health AdministrationPh.D. Industrial/Organizational PsychologyPh.D. Nursing

Walden University MN Private, for-profitPh.D. Health ServicesPh.D. Public HealthPh.D. Psychology


General Leadership, Administration, and Management Programs Proliferate in Business Market but Scope May Exist for Specialized Tracks

• Some niche business specializations in the online doctorate market include: – Electronic Commerce– Environmental and Social Sustainability– Healthcare Management– Human Resource Management

Program Area Assessment: Business

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Business Specialization

In the sample compiled for this report, 24 institutions offer 37 distinct online doctorate programs in business, management and marketing.

The most common specializations, as featured here, constitute about 63% of business-related doctorate programs provided online.


Providing 65% of Available Online Business Programs at Doctorate Level, For-Profits Dominate Prominent Provider List

Program Area Assessment: Business

Prominent Online Doctorate Degree Providers in BusinessInstitution State Tax Status Credential Program Areas

Capella University MN Private, for-profit

Ph.D.

Accounting General BusinessGeneral Ogranization and ManagementHuman Resource ManagementInformation Technology ManagementLeadershipManagement EducationProject Management

D.B.A.

Business IntelligenceGlobal Operations and Supply Chain ManagementStrategy and Innovation

California InterContinental University

CA Private, for-profit D.B.A.

Business AdministrationGlobal Business and LeadershipEntrepreneurship and Business ManagementHealthcare Management and LeadershipInformation Systems and Enterprise Resource Management

Colorado Technical University Online CO Private, for-

profit D.M.

Emerging MediaEnvironmental and Social SustainabilityHomeland SecurityOrganizational Development and Change

NorthcentralUniversity AZ Private, for-

profitD.B.A. Business AdministrationPh.D. Business Administration

Regent University VA Private, not-for-profit

D.S.L. Strategic LeadershipPh.D. Organizational Leadership




Program Development

• This section provides evidence on the development process, challenges typically encountered in program launch, common practices in evaluation, etc.

Recommendations

Key Findings


Signs of Early Enrollment Success Point to Potential Unmet Demand for Online Study at the Doctoral Level • To augment the doctorate market overview and the competitive scan, OHE-LC researchers also

conducted interviews with three member institutions who currently offer online doctoral programs for insights into the program development process and challenges faced by institutions that enter into the online doctoral market.

Program Development

Institution Location Tax Status Number of Online Doctoral Programs

Est. Number of Online Doctoral Enrollments,

2009

Year of First Online Doctoral Program

Launch

A South Atlantic Private, not-for-profit 4 2,100 2005

B South Atlantic Private, not-for-profit 7 1,000 2005

C South Public 2 Unavailable 2008

• Adding further evidence to the theory that the online doctoral market is still developing, all of the respondent institutions have operated in the space for no longer than five years.

• Institution A observes that its online doctoral programs have been capturing new enrollments that the institution otherwise would not have obtained, noting average enrollment growth rates of 30% for most of its online doctoral programs and 60%-70% for its education program.

– Institution A notes, “With 96% of our doctoral student population online or mostly online, we just don’t seem to have a market for residential doctoral study.”

• Despite robust enrollment, Institution B also acknowledges the increasing competition, “I think that the landscape is getting increasingly competitive. At one time, you could ask who offers online programs and count perhaps a dozen institutions. The question today is – who doesn’t offer online programs?”


• A commonly cited challenge among respondent institutions lies in attracting and recruiting faculty with the appropriate balance of research and technological skills for teaching in an online doctoral program.

– Institution A notes that it initially recruited too many practitioner-oriented faculty for its education program and not enough faculty with strong research backgrounds, resulting in weaker student dissertations. Institution A has been working to rectify this issue but acknowledges that it has encountered some difficulty in finding the right candidates who possess the desired combination of research strengths, interest in teaching online, and values aligned with those of the value-based institutional mission.

• Institution A also indicates some challenges in approaching the dissertation process in an online environment. Opting for a dissertation review committee that works at a distance has created unique challenges since committee members are responsible for a critical component of the doctorate program. Institution A seeks to overcome some of these challenges by consolidating the training and oversight responsibilities for distance committee members under a doctoral research chairperson who works on-campus.

– Similarly, Institution B faces continued challenges in recruiting faculty that are well-versed in technology and can “hit the ground running” after the point of hire. As a result, Institution B has employed a number of adjunct faculty in order to keep pace with the operations of its online Ed.D. program.

– Institution C observes that such a need is presented for online doctorate degree programs that it often wrestles with the limited timeframe for developing, launching, and marketing its online doctoral programs.

Program Development

Recruiting the Right Faculty Persists as a Common Challenge in Launching a Doctoral Degree Program Online


Evaluation• From an operational standpoint, respondent institutions evaluate the financial viability of new programs

by assessing admission goals, conversion rates, revenue streams, operational costs, semester-to-semester and year-to-year retention rates, etc.

• From a pedagogical standpoint, methods for program evaluation commonly employed by respondent institutions are dissertation evaluations, current student surveys, alumni surveys, focus group interviews, faculty feedback solicitation, etc.

– Respondent institutions also have formal academic review process in place at the institutional level which periodically evaluates a sample of courses and develops an action plan for further refinement and improvement.

Partnerships• Anecdotally, all of the respondent institutions employ formal and informal partnerships with other higher

education institutions and/or potential employers in delivering their online programs. – Institutions B and C are active participants in their respective states’ distance learning consortia.– Working with regional institutions and internal academic departments is a key strategy for Institution A in

identifying prospective students for its online doctoral programs.

Accreditation• The education programs available at Institutions A and B are both accredited. Institution A attributes

much of its enrollment successes to the accreditation of its programs. • Respondents note that specialized accreditation requirements vary by program area and serve as a

key indicator for program quality and curricular rigor.

Program Development

Evaluation, Partnership, and Accreditation Practices Similar to Those Employed On-Ground


• Develop a strategic plan – assess the demand for the degree and evaluate your competition, research your target audience, assess your internal resources and ask how your infrastructure would support a new online doctoral program

• Recruit qualified faculty and develop strong partnerships with existing faculty who are committed to providing a quality doctoral learning experience in a nontraditional way

• Be creative in designing the residency component of the program

• Ensure that your admission requirements are attracting the right students who can ultimately complete the dissertation

• Start small and build as you go– Institution A notes, “I would advise the inquiring institution to start small. Work out the kinks over the first year or

two and figure out the process. This would also give you the ability to use the resources that you already have and you wouldn’t have to invest as much in faculty hiring and administration oversight initially – it’s less risky. Then, you make it scalable and figure out where the trigger points are in the process and so forth. If you start big, you run the risk of playing constant catch-up.”

• In addition to providing the necessary academic support services that help students succeed, offer a marketable credential to doctoral students who have completed a certain number of credits but cannot complete the entire program:

– Institution A notes, “If I were to design a program from ground-up, I would have a bail-out degree in the process. If students enroll in an Ed.D. program and it becomes clear that they will not be able to finish their dissertation, it’s nice for them to end up with something marketable like an Ed.S.”

Program Development

Current Providers Recommend Creative Strategizing, Recruiting the “Right” Students and Faculty, and Starting Small




Program Development

Recommendations

Key Findings


Discovery Phase

Development Phase

Launch & Review

Market evaluation/program identification

Competitive scanStudent demandInternal audit

Faculty Recruitment and Development

Curriculum design & development

Branding & marketing

IT infrastructureStudent servicesAdmissions/

enrollment management

Testing & validationProgram launchPost-launch

review and assessment

Roadmap for Program Development

With this program-level evaluation, OHE-LC researchers are completing step one of the discovery phase.

Recommendations


Recommendations

Developing Online Doctoral Market Suggests Potential Opportunity for New Degree Providers• The Opportunity: A still developing market that has yet to find its ceiling, estimated online doctoral

enrollments increased 13% over the past year, acquiring approximately 6,000 new enrollments. Relatively new degree providers report of rapid enrollment growth in light of a perceived unmet demand for online programming at the doctorate level. The inquiring member’s own expertise in delivering online master’s programs combined with the growing market may provide a strategic opportunity for entering the online doctoral space.

– Working adult learners, who require the flexibility of online learning, are likely to be key growth drivers but equally, program length and substantial time and financial commitments may temper some of this growth.

– Success of the online master’s market may also provide a recruitment channel and a source of enrollment for online doctoral programs.

– Competitive scans reveal that online doctoral programs tend to skew toward career-oriented disciplines with education, health services, and business exhibiting the most activity.

– Any commentary on the demand for online doctorate degrees that is not partially informed by student demand data and labor market trends, however, remains incomplete.

• Recommendations: Should the inquiring member choose to enter the online doctoral market, OHE-LC researchers recommend the following:

– Consider the advantages as well as the limitations of entering in a more established program area such as health services and business (i.e. more competition but also larger prospect pool?) versus a niche field such as security and criminal justice and public administration (i.e. less competition but also smaller prospect pool?).

– Leverage its own successes in delivering online programs, existing program inventory, internal faculty resources, and regional brand strength in developing online doctoral programs

– Start small in order to test the market and to minimize the risk inherent in launching a new program– Consider offering some sort of a marketable credential to doctoral students who have completed a certain

number of credit hours but cannot complete the entire program


Future Research


Future Research

To commission additional research or to discuss this report, please contact your Eduventures liaison, Lesley Nelson, at [email protected] or 617-532-6007.

To expand this research, the OHE-LC research team recommends the following:

• Further explore the strategic implications of this study via a conference call with your Eduventuresliaison

• Further probe the key findings in this study via custom analysis:

– Size the online doctoral market by estimating the online enrollment and market share for the top program areas

– Commission more detailed analyses on demand and competition in program areas of interest

– Evaluate the labor market demand for doctoral degrees in specific program areas– Assess student demand via focus group interviews and surveys

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An Assessment of the U.S. Online Doctorate Market · uncommon among online doctorate degree...

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