An Agriculture Perspective
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Transcript of An Agriculture Perspective
An Agriculture Perspective
State of the Science
Risk Management Policy
Forecasting into the Future
• Distribution of agricultural crops is not expected to change significantly. Changes in rainfall amounts have caused a shift in South Dakota and North Dakota.
• Emissions of GHG will be affected more by management and the interaction with climate.
• Extreme events in temperature and precipitation, impacts on agriculture
Climate – Crop Models
• Extreme events in temperature and precipitation, seasonality
• Seasonal shifts in precipitation (upper Midwest increase in spring precipitation, decrease in summer precipitation)
• Role of the soil is overlooked from a water availability and nutrient source
• Continued degradation of soil resource on a worldwide basis, potential for erosion in the spring
Water Requirements
Corn Water Use Efficiency
Water Use (mm)
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Yie
ld (
kg h
a-1)
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
Water Deficit:need 120 mm more water to grow 300 bu corn
Information Needed
• Spatial scale– Crop reporting district or county level
• Temporal scale– Daily timesteps with emphasis on extremes
• Examine agriculture from the perspective of a crop calendar– Planting decisions– Growth impacts– Harvest decisions
Biophysical Modeling
• Interaction among parameters driving plant growth
• Effect of plant stress on grain, fruit, or forage quality
• Effect of climate stress on plants and the interactions with weeds, insects, and diseases
• Water availability to plants (role of soil is overlooked)
Priorities
• Understand how risk intersects with the dynamics of agricultural systems
• Understand the interactions among driving variables and crop or animal responses
• Understand how uncertainty interacts with the spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural systems
US Corn Production
South Dakota Crop Distribution
South Dakota Crop Area Harvested
Year
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Are
a (A
cres
)
0
1e+6
2e+6
3e+6
4e+6
5e+6
6e+6
WheatCornSoybeanSunflower
North Dakota Crop DistributionNorth Dakota Crop Area Harvested
Year
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Are
a H
arve
sted
(A
cres
)
0.0
2.0e+6
4.0e+6
6.0e+6
8.0e+6
1.0e+7
1.2e+7
1.4e+7
WheatCornSoybeanSunflower
Midwest Corn
Indiana Corn
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Fre
quen
cy
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Iowa Corn
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Fre
quen
cy
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Illinois Corn
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Fre
quen
cy
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Kansas Corn
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Fre
quen
cy
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Winter Wheat
Kansas Winter Wheat
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Fre
quen
cy
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
South Dakota Winter Wheat
Deviation from Maximum Yield
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8F
requ
ency
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Urea vs ESNCT-CC rotation, 2008
DOY: 121 151 181 211 241 271 301
N2O
flu
xes
(g N
ha
-1 d
-1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Check (no N added)Urea (246 kg N/ha)ESN (246 kg N/ha)
N applied May 19, DOY 139
Month: M J J A S O N
NT-CC rotation, 2008
DOY: 121 151 181 211 241 271 301
N2O
flu
xes
(g N
ha-1
d-1
)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Check, no N addedUrea, 246 kg N/haESN, 246 kg N/ha
Month: M J J A S O N
N applied May 19, DOY 139
Urea vs ESN
-Fertilizer applied May 5 (DOY 125) at rate of 112 kg N / ha-Peak N2O emissions observed on May 27 (DOY 147) and on June 23 (DOY 174).
Daily N2O Emissions
Day of Year 2009
120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
g N
2O
-N h
a-1 d
-1
0
100
200
300
400
CheckUANUAN+AgESNSuper U
Peak N2O emissions that occurred on May 27 and June 23 accounted for 6.7%, 17.6%, 24.5%, 32.9% and 26.5% of the cumulative seasonal N2O emissions for the Check, UAN, UAN+Ag, Super U and ESN treatments, respectively.
No significant difference in cumulative fluxes when peak emissions are excluded.
Cumulative N2O Emissions
May 5 - October 5, 2009
kg N
2O-N
ha-1
0
2
4
6
8
10
Excluding Peak EventsIncluding Peak Events
Check UAN UAN+Ag Super U ESN
Spring Precipitation (Ames)
Ames Spring Precipitation
Year
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Spring Precip (March-May)Mean Spring Precip
Nighttime Temperatures (Ames)
Ames Minimum Temperature - Summer
Year
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Tem
pera
ture
(F
)
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Summer Temp (June-Aug)Mean Summer Temp
Soybean Production Field Late August 2005
Soil Water Availability
Organic Matter (%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Ava
ilab
le W
ate
r C
on
ten
t (%
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Data Points Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OMSilt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OMSilty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM
Hudson, 1994
Crop response to the environment is a complex set of interactions among light, temperature, CO2, and water. Future development of biophysical models will have to account for these interactions.