An Adaptive Ecosystem Approach to Decision Making Under Complexity:

Rich Depictions RevealContext and Consequence

Ashwani Vasishthvasishth@ramapo.edu

http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth

Associate Professor in Environmental StudiesDirector, Masters in Sustainability Studies

Ramapo College of New Jersey

In one meaningful sense, globalization is the externalization of environmental health costs by the rich, onto the poor

Toxic Pollution and Life Expectancy

• In a memo dated December 12, 1991, Lawrence H. Summers, then Chief Economist at the World Bank, endorsed the idea that toxic industries be relocated to nations with the lowest life expectancies and the lowest wages—they would die young anyways, he suggested

• There was outrage

• But, really, we’ve done just that!!!

The High Hidden Costs of US Consumerism

• The cheapness of the goods we purchase at discount stores are a reflection of the costs we have externalized upon workers in the developing world

• But...communities residing and working around goods movement nodes and facilities pay a high price in health impacts, too

Local Impacts of Globalization

• The globalization of production means a huge increase in international goods movement

• Diesel-powered ships, trucks and trains are what we use to move these goods

• Diesel exhaust is highly toxic

Ranking of US Container Ports

US Rank World Rank Combined World Rank

1. Los Angeles 8

2. Long Beach 12 5

2. NY/New Jersey 15

3. Oakland 40

4. Hampton Roads 42

5. Charleston 46

6. Tacoma 48

7. Seattle 49 20

Diesel Rail Engines Belch Smoke

Truck Traffic On the I-710 Freeway

Freeways Serving the San Pedro Port Complex

Estimated Cancer Risk for the South Coast Air Basin

Excess Cases per Million Population

But…!

Complex systems cannot be treated as simple systems

Complex adaptive systems act as “wicked problems”

Rittel, Horst W. J. & Melvin M. Webber. 1969. "Dilemmas In A General Theory of Planning," Policy

Sciences 4, 1969, pp 155-173.

• Every wicked problem is unique;• Wicked problems can always be explained in more than one way;• There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem;• There is no stopping rule;• There is no enumerable set of solutions;• There is no singular test of a proposed solution.

An ecosystem approach based on

nested scale-hierarchic process-function ecology,

offers the most effective basis

for an ecological planning under complexity

Ecological Complexity

• To take a phenomenon complexly is to recognize that there is always more than one or two things going on at the same time, and that we can never see every relevant aspect of any one particular reality in any one singular description--so we must describe things in multiple ways, strategically varying functional and purposive stakeholder perspectives in the generation of rich descriptions

Ecological Complexity

• To take a phenomenon ecologically, is to take it in consideration of its context and with attention to its consequences

• Rich depictions capture multiple, co-occurring realities

Descriptions Matter

• How we choose to make depictions of complex systems affects what we can see of context and consequence, and so affects outcomes

• Complex systems are best conceptualized as being arranged into nested levels of organization

Nested Structures

O’Neill, Robert V. et al. 1986. A Hierarchical Concept of Ecosystems. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. p.131

Levels of Organization

Allen, Timothy F.H. & Thomas W.l Hoekstra. 1992. Toward A Unified Ecology. New York: Columbia University Press. p. 30

Nested Systems

Bossel, H. 2001. Assessing Viability and Sustainability: A Systems-Based Approach for Deriving Comprehensive Indicator Sets. Conservation Ecology, 5(2):

12.

Properties of An Ecosystem Approach

• Nested Assembly

• Scale-hierarchic Levels of Organization

• Rate-dependant Boundaries

• Purposive Descriptions

• Scale-dependant Structuring

• Functional Associations

Elements of An Ecosystem Approach

• Processes

• Boundaries

• Scales

• Purpose

• Perspective

Estimated Cancer Risk for the South Coast Air Basin

Excess Cases per Million Population

Residential Land Uses

Industrial Land Uses

Houses Abut the I-710 Freeway

Los Angeles River

Proximity to Freeway A Factor In Pollution Concentrations

Zhu, Yifang & William C. Hinds & Seongheon Kim & Si Shen & Constantinos Sioutas. 2002. “Study of Ultrafine Particles Near A Major Highway With Heavy-Duty Diesel Traffic,” Atmospheric Environment, 36

(2002) 4323–4335

Recommended Buffer Zones for New Construction

• California Air Resources Board recommends a 300 to 1,700 foot downwind buffer between freeways and human activity

• “Sensitive Receptors” should be sited at least 500 feet away when downwind from freeways

• But there are no recommendations for existing structures

CARB (California Air Resources Board). 2005. Air Quality and Land Use Handbook: A Community Health Perspective. Sacramento, CA: California Air Resources Board.

Houses Abut the I-710 Freeway

Los Angeles River

Conventional Depictions Are Confrontational

• Community groups and the Port Administration depict one another in oppositional roles, with State and Regional governmental agencies playing mediative roles

• Non-profit groups tend to align themselves in activist roles alongside communities and against the Ports

Consequences of Confrontational Depictions

• Given the oppositional characterization of roles, the debate is primarily limited to issues of physical growth in port activity

• Community groups seek to limit growth, Port authorities seek to expand growth, and that sets the modalities for the discourse

South Coast Goods Movement:Levels of Organization

Supra-system

System of Concern

Sub-system

Depiction as Nested Levels of Organization

• Allows all relevant processes and functions to be kept in play, with associations and relationships shown in their actual configurations and strengths

• Allows effects to be traced across levels of organization, with adjustments for benefits and disbenefits at different levels to be affected more directly

Benefits and Disbenefits

• Benefits are clustered primarily at the sub-system and supra-system levels of organization

• Disbenefits are concentrated primarily at the system level of organization

South Coast Goods Movement:Levels of Organization

Supra-system

System of Concern

Sub-system

Redistribution of Benefits

• Some small portion of the benefits accruing to the manufacturing, shipping, logistics and consumer markets should be redirected to remediate the adverse impacts at the neighborhood level of organization

Integrative Ecosystem Approach

• Identification of properties most at risk

• Design of buffer zones, using urban forestry and landscape elements

• Redesign of neighborhoods using transit-oriented smart growth sorts of urban design strategies, to accommodate potentially displaced families within their current neighborhoods, where possible

• Accelerated turnover of truck and rail fleets toward low-sulfur diesel and alternative fuels

Ashwani Vasishth

Associate Professor in Environmental Studies

Director, Masters in Sustainability Studies

Ramapo College of New Jersey

vasishth@ramapo.edu

(201) 684-6616

http:/phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth