AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALS - Global Food Forums · Weak Signals Evidence of a new behavior,technology,...
Transcript of AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALS - Global Food Forums · Weak Signals Evidence of a new behavior,technology,...
AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALSA FRAMEWORK FOR FORESIGHT
M I K E L E EC E O & F O U N D E R
Studio Industries
Create
New Food
Products
Evolve
Existing
Products
Lear n
Innovation
Strategies
A Food Design & Innovation Agency
-We help food companies to -
THE
FUTUREMARKETI
II
..........
//I /
Amplifying Weak Signals
Small Ideas Today
Year 2015
Amplifying Weak Signals
Small Ideas Today
Year 2015
Big Ideas TomorrowYear 2065
Better innovation in food
today starts with more
ambitious thinking
about tomorrow.
Scenario Planning“Scenarios are a tool for helping managers plan for the future – or rather
for different possible futures.They help us focus on critical uncertainties.
On the things we don't know about which might transform our business.”
- Royal Dutch Shell
BlockbusterVideo’sWeak Signals
BlockbusterVideo’sWeak Signals
RedboxAutomated
Distribution
BlockbusterVideo’sWeak Signals
NetflixDirect to
Consumer
RedboxAutomated
Distribution
BlockbusterVideo’sWeak Signals
NetflixDirect to
Consumer
RedboxAutomated
Distribution
BroadbandEnabling
On Demand
The connection between short term
actions and long term consequences
is not always clear.
AmplifyingWeak Signals
Connects the Clear Present
With the Blurry Future
TheValue ofWeak SignalsEmpowering your company to…
The Value of Weak SignalsEmpowering your company to…
MoveWith the ChangingTides
The Value of Weak SignalsEmpowering your company to…
MoveWith the ChangingTides
ShapeWhere the Industry Goes
The Value of Weak SignalsEmpowering your company to…
MoveWith the ChangingTides
ShapeWhere the Industry Goes
BuildNew CompetitiveAdvantages
Weak Signals Amplification
Weak Signals Amplification
Gather
Weak Signals Amplification
Gather
Amplify
Weak Signals Amplification
Gather
Amplify
Prioritize
Gather
Gathering Signals
Human Sensor Networks
CreateYour Innovators Circle
Gathering Signals
Ethnographic Expeditions
Gain High-Fidelity Insights
Gathering Signals
Social Media Monitoring
Quick & Easy Investigation
POST MESSAGE TO #PROTEIN14 0
-ENABLE CHAT MODE HIDE NEW RETWEETS Feed Speed: Fast
Live Feed "!I - - - - -a Lunch was a pumpkin salad with feta and olives #protein #food #fuel
4m@hormonarse Musculman
#yummy #salad #roast #kaylaitsines #bbg #challe... pic.twitter.com/OOzlmjXCNN
a @hormonarse Musculman
#weightloss #macros #protein #motivation #diet #transformation #instagood#instadaily #ootd #photooftheday #follow ... pic.twitter.com/unsFHFwScl
4m
. , ..
Log in with Twitter Increase your feed refresh rate and join the conversation!
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Diet Whey by INC International Nutrition Co. is a great meal replacement....
#protein buff.ly/1QPKjSL pic.twitter.com/nf4VRnPYrV
@naf_sid nth
RT @DaniellaMonet: Quick & easy #vegan #chocolate #protein shake
recipe on my snap 'flt daniemo pic.twitter.com/qBJivdJcqU
@RssProtein Protein
#Protein Bribery for services rampant in Mideast, North Africa, research finds
bit.ly/1Z5RL1W
@MyGood_ Health1 Dr. Brandon
#protein #proteins PrimaSolutions :
@PrimaSolut ions_ PrimaSolutions
#Alcohol Ingestion Impairs Maximal Post-Exercise Rates of Myofibrillar #Protein Synthesis
dx.doi.org/10.1371 fjourna .. .
•@QNTINDIA QNT INDIA
Everything is Better After Workout D #Protein #Workout #Wheyprotein #Metapure
qntsport .in/gb/56-protein fb.me/7WIRmPavQ
@FitnessDie t food Emma l i lder
Info: The #nutritional benefits of #chia include #fiber , #omega3 fatty acids, #calcium ,
#antioxidants n #protein : twtly.com/ev5
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Amplify
Amplifying Weak Signals
Small Ideas Today
Year 2015
Big Ideas TomorrowYear 2065
Weak Signals
Evidence of a new behavior,technology,
or environmental condition that is small
and emerging,but could lead to
powerful outcomes.
Behavior
Technology
Environment
ThreeTypes of Signals
These three
categories are
connected.
Categorize one
signal and figure
out how it affects
the other two
AmplifyingWeak Signals
• A Springboard for CreativityThe value of the process is taking your current thinking far beyond the limitsof
today's reality and using that experience to inspire what you do today.
• Understand How Brands Can EvolveHelpful for imagining how a brand thrives in a new technological,behavioral,
or environmental context
• Understand Ideas in 3 DimensionsThe Behavior /Technology / Environment framework can be used on any idea or
insight in today's world,not just into the future
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Signals Grid
Today0-5 Years
Tomorrow6-10 Years
Later11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
TechnologySignals
Environmen
tSignals
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Signals Grid
Today Tomorrow Later0-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
Professional chefs
using 3D printing
for pure wow-
factor
Ex: MIT Food Printing
TechnologySignals
Startups Making 3D
Food Printers that
can print a few
ingredients
Ex: 3D Systems
Environmen
tSignals
Partnerships
forming between
3D printing and
food companies
Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems
Signal Amplification Questions
Technology Behavior Environment
• What does it look like when
this technology performs
twice as good at half the
price?
• What does it look like when
this technology becomes
ubiquitous?
• What would be a major
breakthrough for this
technology?What happens
when it is achieved?
• What happens if this
behavior is adopted by
additional people,by a factor
of 10?
• What is not accepted or
understood today but
becomes common
knowledge?
• What happens when you see
this behavior in mainstream
media?
• What are the qualities that
we compete on today?What
if these qualities become
table stakes for everyone?
• What happens when barriers
to entry are broken down?
• What kinds of firms will
dominate this marketplace?
Use these questions to explore how technology,behavior,
and environmental conditions can change.
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Signals Grid
Today Tomorrow Later0-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
Professional chefs
using 3D printing
for pure wow-
factor
Ex: MIT Food Printing
TechnologySignals
Startups Making 3D
Food Printers that
can print a few
ingredients
Ex: 3D Systems
Environmen
tSignals
Partnerships
forming between
3D printing and
food companies
Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems
40
Signals Grid
Today0-5 Years
Tomorrow6-10 Years
Later11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
Professional chefs
using 3D printing
for pure wow-
factor
Ex: MIT Food Printing
Home enthusiasts
and professionals
push the limits of 3D
food
printing,
acceptance gaining
TechnologySignals
Startups Making 3D
Food Printers that
can print a few
ingredients
Ex: 3D Systems
More ingredients can
be 3D printed:
dough, extruding
blended
foods, chocolate
Environmen
tSignals
Partnerships
forming between
3D printing and
food companies
Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems
Custom printed food
kiosks begin to
appear in
supermarkets
41
Signals Grid
Today0-5 Years
Tomorrow6-10 Years
Later11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
Professional chefs
using 3D printing
for pure wow-
factor
Ex: MIT Food Printing
Home enthusiasts
and professionals
push the limits of 3D
food
printing,
acceptance gaining
Expectations and
desire rise for
3D printed food
TechnologySignals
Startups Making 3D
Food Printers that
can print a few
ingredients
Ex: 3D Systems
More ingredients can
be 3D printed:
dough, extruding
blended
foods, chocolate
Cheap 3D Food
Printers can
print vir tually
any food
Environmen
tSignals
Partnerships
forming between
3D printing and
food companies
Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems
Custom printed food
kiosks begin to
appear in
supermarkets
Big Food sells food
in 3D Printer
Cartridges
Scenario GenerationThe goal is to generate many possibilities in a structured manner
Technology Behavior Marketplace
Prioritiz
e
Divergent / ConvergentThinking
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Signals Grid
Today0-5 Years
Tomorrow6-10 Years
Later11-15 Years
BehaviorSignals
Professional chefs
using 3D printing
for pure wow-
factor
Ex: MIT Food Printing
Home enthusiasts
and professionals
push the limits of 3D
food
printing,
acceptance gaining
Expectations and
desire rise for
3D printed food
TechnologySignals
Startups Making 3D
Food Printers that
can print a few
ingredients
Ex: 3D Systems
More ingredients can
be 3D printed:
dough, extruding
blended
foods, chocolate
Cheap 3D Food
Printers can
print vir tually
any food
Environmen
tSignals
Partnerships
forming between
3D printing and
food companies
Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems
Custom printed food
kiosks begin to
appear in
supermarkets
Big Food sells food
in 3D Printer
Cartridges
Converging / Prioritizing Ideas
High
Impact
Low
Impact
High
Probability
Low
Probability
I N V E S T I G AT E A C T
B A C K B U R N E R I N V E S T I G AT E
Converging / Prioritizing Ideas
High
Impact
Low
Impact
High
Probability
Low
Probability
I N V E S T I G AT E A C T
B A C K B U R N E R I N V E S T I G AT E
Startups Making 3D Food
Printers that can print a
few ingredients
Professional chefs using
3D printing for pure
wow-factor
Home enthusiasts and
professionals push the limits
of 3D food printing,
acceptance gaining
Expectations and
desire rise for 3D
printed food
More ingredients can
be 3D printed:dough,
extruding blended
foods,chocolate
Cheap 3D Food
Printers can print
virtually any food
Partnerships forming
between 3D printing
and food companies
Custom printed
food kiosks begin
to appear in
supermarkets
Big Food sells
food in 3D
Printer
Cartridges
Prioritizing Signals
High
Impact
Act
Hig
Probab
Low
Impact
h
ility
Backburner
Low
Probability
Backburner
Investigate
Scenario Building
Weak Signals Amplification
Gather
Amplify
Prioritize
Strategic Planning
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ThankYou!
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We are all traveling through time.Let us make the future a place
we’d want to visit.
Stephen Hawking